Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
- Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
- The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
- The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
- Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
- The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
- Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
- The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
- Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
- Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
- The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
- Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.
Earlier Settlements
- Rockies reliever Carlos Estevez has settled for a $1.08MM salary, Robert Murray reports on Twitter.
- Dodgers lefty Julio Urias will earn $1MM, per Robert Murray (via Twitter).
- The Brewers will pay catcher Omar Narvaez $2.725MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.
- A pair of Nationals hurlers also have deals, Murray reports (Twitter links). Southpaw Roenis Elias takes down $1.975MM while righty Joe Ross will receive $1.5MM.
- Pirates first baseman Josh Bell earns $4.8MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That’s short of the projection, though Matt Swartz recently explained why he believed Bell would land closer to the $5MM level — as indeed he now has. Reliever Michael Feliz earns $1.1MM, Murray tweets, and the Bucs will pay starter Trevor Williams $2.825MM, per MLB.com’s Adam Berry (via Twitter).
- The Diamondbacks have a $5.515MM settlement with corner infielder Jake Lamb, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. The Snakes will pay righty Andrew Chafin $3.045MM, Murray tweets.
- The Padres will pay catcher Austin Hedges $3MM, Nightengale also tweets. Friars outfielder Manuel Margot earns $2.475MM, Robert Murray adds on Twitter. And righty Dinelson Lamet will earn $1.3MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
- A pair of Braves position players have agreed to terms, per David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter links). Infielder Johan Camargo has settled for $1.7MM, while outfielder Adam Duvall receives $3.25MM. Southpaw Grant Dayton will earn $655K, Murray tweets, while fellow reliever Luke Jackson gets $1.825MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
- Southpaw Adam Morgan takes home $1.575MM from the Phillies, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia tweets.
- The Pirates and righty Chad Kuhl have settled on an $840K salary, tweets Adam Berry of MLB.com. Kuhl didn’t throw a pitch in 2019 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, leaving him with minimal leverage in talks. He falls quite a bit shy of the $1.4MM forecast by the MLBTR algorithm.
- Right-hander Luis Perdomo and the Padres agreed to terms on a one-year deal, tweets Robert Murray. Few former Rule 5 picks like Perdomo make it all the way to arbitration, and he’ll be rewarded with a $950K salary that narrowly falls shy of his $1MM projection.
- The Reds and right-hander/center fielder Michael Lorenzen agreed to a $3.725MM salary for 2020, tweets Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer. A Super Two player who’ll be eligible once more next winter, Lorenzen was projected at $4.2MM.
- Right-hander Matt Andriese and the D-backs settled at $1.395MM for the upcoming season, tweets Robert Murray. That lines up nicely with his $1.4MM projection in his second year of eligibility. He’s controlled through 2021.
- The Pirates and righty Jameson Taillon agreed to a $2.25MM salary for the upcoming season, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Taillon isn’t expected to pitch in 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, so this is likely the amount he’ll earn both next season and in 2021. The deal is right in line with his $2.3MM projection.
- The Diamondbacks and southpaw Robbie Ray settled at $9.43MM for his final season of club control, Nightengale tweets. It’s more than $1MM shy of the $10.8MM at which he’d been projected, which gives the Snakes a bit more flexibility but also makes Ray slightly more appealing should Arizona listen to offers on him.
- The Braves agreed to one-year deals with shortstop Dansby Swanson and right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, Nightengale tweets. Swanson will be guaranteed $3.15MM, while Foltynewicz is in line to take home a $6.425MM salary. They’d been projected to earn $3.3MM and $7.5MM, respectively. Swanson is in his first year of eligibility, while Foltynewicz is in his second as a Super Two player.
- The Mets and righty Robert Gsellman settled at $1.225MM for the 2020 season, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino. He’d been projected to earn $1.2MM in his first season of eligibility.
How could you determine Bryant’s if they still don’t know if he has one or two year’s left? Seems to me they should have wrapped it up weeks ago.
i admittedly dont know much about this process but theres thought that when having to decide his arbitration numbers by today, if both sides can figure out a number for the next two years than maybe itll help them decide on the grievance. Maybe i have some of that wrong, it was something I read a couple months ago.
Because the number doesn’t have anything to do with the future, just the past results and money
I wouldn’t say it has nothing to do with the future but any future projection is by nature going to e based on a players history and condition as well as his demonstrated willingness to make himself better…
None of his up coming arbitration had anything to do with his upcoming year.
The grievance is for when his free agency starts not dollar value of his arbitration years contracts
Because that has nothing to do with the arb process.
Luke Jackson is not worth $1.85 much less 1.85 million. One of the peanut vendors at SunTrust would be a better relief pitcher than Jackson.
Its a ONE YEAR contract regardless
The service time grievance has no bearing on what he will make in arbitration this offseason. It is all about whether he will be arb eligible a fourth time next offseason or simply become a free agent at that point.
Are there ever circumstances where teams negotiate for a lower-than-predicted salary in return for an agreement not to terminate in spring training (for 30 days pay)?
Team/player can agree to whatever amount they want, has nothing to do with predictions.
If they can’t settle and it goes before an arbitrator the player cannot receive less than 20% of his previous season’s salary.
Good for the Braves “saving” a little money on those guys
Braves get two pivotal players for roughly 1.25 million below projection. I’m not surprised as it relates to Dansby given injury history. Was surprised Folty didn’t fight it to the end given his persona.
Folty has calmed down quite a bit over the last year.
Folty probably didnt want to go through the process again this winter. Also coming off a season where most of 2019 was brutal he was probably ready just to put the season behind him.
With Folty being sent down during the season, he didn’t have much of an argument for more money.
Every million counts for the Dbacks and Mike Hazen. Someday they’ll establish themselves as the Rays (not Robbies) of the NL. As much as I think Robbie is going to work hard to have a great year so he gets max dollars, he’s a wildcard because of his high walk ratio. It’s so frustrating to watch him walk so many, drive up his pitch count, and struggle to get into the fifth inning. He’d be a great closer, but he hasn’t been good at limiting bullpen use. They’ll need to use the 26th spot as a designated long reliever for Robbie Ray.
is gant getting arbitration
ronnie?
Wrong Josh Bell….
Julio Urias is going to get a HUGE raise next year. I know it’s based on last year’s performance, but $1M for what the Dodgers are likely to get from him in 2020 is a steal.
hope he gets a chance to start wire to wire.
Supposedly he will, but probably with a 150 IP limit, which can be done pretty easily by skipping a start here and there.
I can’t wait to see our young pitchers this season! I finally got spectrum too, so no more watching games on my phone. I wonder if we will see Mitchell White make an appearance or two.
He was awful in AAA, so hopefully they convert him to the bullpen and turns things around.
Luke Jackson is not worth $1.85 much less 1.85 million
Yes, we heard you the first time.
“…not worth 1.85MM”
Why don’t you see what the man does on the field before you set his worth in your head.
Interesting what LA did with Stripling. He takes less money but gets mostly paid up front, so the value is about the same. And LA saves a little toward the lux tax. I bet we’ll see a few of the teams with a lot of cash employing this trick. It could possibly save millions in staying under the threshold. It also could be an issue of fairness between rich and poor teams.
You might be reading to much into it tbh. This no doubt this isn’t the first and won’t be the last “under the estimated arb numbers” contract this offseason for the Dodgers, which doesn’t really have anything to do with rich or poor teams.
This moreso reads as protection for Strip who doesn’t really have a set role, and 1.5 M is still a pretty decent bite of the apple for a guy like Strip. It’s protection from potential arm injuries, since arb contract are again non guaranteed. Which for a guy like Strip is somewhat of a big deal, but hard to draw much if any correlation to what you expressed.
You miss the point. Of course it isn’t the first below-projection deal. And you omit the fact that there are over-projection deals as well. That Stripling took less for a lump sum up front is the issue, not that it’s less than projected. He can invest that money which is why I felt that the values were equal.
To further elaborate, why can’t a team with loads of cash give something like $20MM up front for a total deal that’s $5MM less than what a guy is worth? The guy can invest that money right away, and the team saves $5MM towards the luxury tax.
So I don’t think I’m reading too much into it at all. If I was in charge of a team’s baseball ops that had tax issues, I would be exploring doing this as much as I could.
Stripling is only 200k below the projection (1.5m+600k vs 2.3m projected)
Stripling, an experienced financial planner and stock trader, likely believes he can make up the 200k by having the money in his pocket immediately rather than having to wait all season. The Dodgers save the 200k.
Stripling needs less than a 15% return by the end of the season for it to work out. Seems achievable.
It isn’t really that big of a deal.
The signing bonus counts in full towards the Dodgers’ tax calculation. Their financial benefit here is saving 200k vs his projected salary. Stripling’s is gaining the time value of money on 1.5m for 8 months or so.
I understood your point, but comparing certain situations, ie the example you posted, vs a player who is not likely to win at an arb hearing due to his usage is shaky ground. Strip winning a filing number with comps is what we’re discussing vs attempting to make a generalized correlation because of. Strip winning a filing is unlikely in general.
It’s far more likely the comps of said 25M player are closer to winning their filing number than the 5M short being offered. Players who have strong comps along with the counting numbers arbiters love in the archaic system, would love if you attempted to. You may be able to nickel and dime guys like Strip, Urias, Barnes etc… due to injury, usage, performance, but in general the thought doesn’t pass the reality smell test for a vast majority of reasons.
Do signing bonuses not count towards the luxury tax calculations?
Yes they do. But if you read my post, I said the Dodgers were saving $220K, the difference in the deal between projected and realized, towards the threshold, and not $1.5MM, the amount of the bonus.
Stripling is a registered stock trader and financial advisor
I would bet he proposed this so that he could invest his money sooner rather than later.
It’s the kind of thing he would do.
Stripling is well aware of the time value of money, and by taking less ‘actual dollars’, he can begin getting returns on the money over the course of the season; the Dodgers save slightly in tax calculation, and he could come out ahead if he invests the money well
It is extremely Ross.
This is all true, but most players have financial advisers that could put any up front cash to use right away. A player doesn’t need to be a stock broker for a similar deal to make sense for him.
Being a stock broker helps the player understand WHY the deal makes sense for him, and consequently to ask for it.
Ross Stripling’s deal sounds like he’s buying a house and needed a down payment…
Any idea what benefit (if any) the Dodgers get by structuring 70% of Striplings pay ($1.5M) as an upfront bonus this year? Since this is being paid prior to opening day, does this count towards their 2019 cap number or something? Just wondering if anyone knows the answer.
Bonus do count towards the tax. It’s always the dollar value of a deal (bonuses + salary) divided by the length in years. That’s the Average Annual Value (AAV). The AAV is what’s computed toward the tax threshold per year, whether the player gets that money that year or not. I see the deal as being similar in value to the higher projection, but saves LA $200K toward the tax threshold, and Stripling has that money working for him immediately. Both sides are happy.
State of California should like this deal. More income tax revenue this way.
Andrew chafin is a lefty.
It’s all about the taxes, players from NYC pay more than those in Texas
If I have enough money to take care of my family, acquire the toys I want to play with and set my children set up for life I care far more about my work environment and the place I live than how much my money goes to build and maintain the infrastructure where I live.
One of the mistakes Americans make about Taxes is we view it solely as an expense when form the economics point of view it is an investment…
OK No More Tax talk until March guys
let’s talk Baseball
Yes thisis one of the more “boring” articles on MLBTR but it usually means we are about to get another spate of signings.
…Mr Donaldson
paging Mr. Donaldson…
The real question there is does MVP (his reps) try to hold him out past the start of Spring if no one tops the Nats Deal. If so I have got to believe that whom ever signs him will have some negative energy from the fanbase to dissipate. But that has become easier over the last decade as baseball fans have gotten more used to the ups and downs off offseason Free Agency
or as the Ohio Players sing
“Roller Coaster
I Love
Say What?!”
Ross Stripling, the stockbrocker, is probably thinking that he can make more money through investments than with a 600K salary and 1.5 million bonus than a traditional 2.2 million salary. Seems like it works for both parties involved although it’s quite likely the S & P 500 will not go up a ridiculous 29% this year!