Myriad issues have weighed down the Marlins during their 16-year playoff drought, but it wasn’t that long ago they at least boasted an elite outfield. Back in 2017, the trio of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna led the Marlins to a first-place ranking in fWAR in the grass (16.8). Stanton enjoyed an NL MVP-winning, 59-home run season; Yelich continued to post underrated production (he’s not underrated anymore); and Ozuna recorded a career year that he hasn’t replicated since. Of course, those players’ contributions weren’t enough to even get the Marlins to the .500 mark, and that season proved to be all three outfielders’ last hurrah in Miami.
Prior to the 2018 season, the non-contending Marlins and a new ownership group headed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter went on a campaign designed to slash payroll they inherited from predecessor Jeffrey Loria and build up a bottom-of-the-barrel farm system. To achieve those goals, the Marlins decided all three of their star outfielders were expendable, and they moved each of them on the heels of their standout 2017 showings.
Stanton, then 28 years old, was the most accomplished member of the trio at the time. He was also the owner of a historic, franchise-record contract worth $325MM over 13 years that he signed in November 2014. Stanton still had $275MM left on the deal three years ago, making him ripe for a change of scenery from the Marlins’ perspective.
The Giants, Cardinals and Dodgers were among those that pursued Stanton when the Marlins put the slugger on the block. Both San Francisco and St. Louis reportedly agreed to acquire Stanton, but he used his full no-trade clause to block moves to those cities; meanwhile, his hometown Los Angeles club didn’t make a good enough offer for Miami’s liking. That created an opening for the Yankees, Jeter’s team for all of his Hall of Fame playing career, to swoop in and grab Stanton to pair with fellow hulking corner outfielder Aaron Judge.
Stanton and Judge had combined for 111 home runs during the prior season, and the Yankees no doubt had designs on them leading them to championships in the future. Thanks in part to injuries to both players, that hasn’t happened yet, and when healthy, Stanton hasn’t been the same player he was in 2017. While he has been good, the Yankees probably want more out of Stanton going forward with him still guaranteed an exorbitant amount of money through 2027.
As for the details of the trade, the Yankees took on the vast majority of Stanton’s money (the Marlins paid $30MM) in exchange for second baseman Starlin Castro and two prospects in right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers. Castro had shown himself to be a roughly average regular with the Cubs and Yankees from 2010-17. The widely held belief was that the Marlins would end up flipping him and the $22MM left on his deal before he ever played in their uniform. As it turned out, though, Castro spent the last full two years on his pact in Miami, where he produced – you guessed it – roughly average production (3.6 fWAR in 1,323 plate appearances). He’s now a member of the NL East rival Nationals, who signed him in free agency last offseason.
The Marlins were never going to contend during the remainder of Castro’s contract, so the bigger motivation for them was getting as much of Stanton’s money as possible off the books and trying to bolster their system. Guzman and Devers have helped them do the latter to at least some degree. Now 24 years old, the hard-throwing Guzman ranks as the Marlins’ No. 19 prospect at MLB.com; he climbed to the Double-A level last season and registered a 3.50 ERA/4.37 FIP with 8.24 K/9 and 4.61 BB/9 over 138 2/3 innings. Devers, 20, checks in even higher than Guzman on MLB.com’s list (No. 11), though he failed to hit a homer in 138 plate appearances in High-A ball last season. FanGraphs then wrote that it only considers him “a lefty utility bench piece.”
Thus far, getting out from under Stanton’s onerous contract has been the biggest plus of that trade for the Marlins. Between his deal and his no-trade rights, it was obviously a challenge to find a trade partner for him. The team was in a better position with both Yelich and Ozuna, though.
Unlike Stanton, Yelich – on the cusp of his age-27 season, signed to a sweetheart contract and having combined for 10.0 fWAR from 2016-17 – should have commanded a king’s ransom in return. Yelich wanted out, so the Marlins were extra motivated to move him. Unsurprisingly, a significant number of teams – including the Padres, Cardinals, Rangers, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Phillies, Blue Jays and Braves – were connected to him in the rumor mill. The Marlins aimed high in Yelich talks, reportedly asking the Jays for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Braves for Ronald Acuna Jr., but those teams predictably balked at those requests. Ultimately, the Marlins sent Yelich and the $43.25MM in guarantees he had left to the Brewers in January 2018 for a four-prospect package consisting of Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz, and righty Jordan Yamamoto.
Sure, the Marlins were letting go of an eminently valuable player, but they didn’t expect Yelich to turn into an all-world superstar as soon as he arrived in Milwaukee. But that’s what happened. He succeeded Stanton as the NL MVP in his first year as a Brewer, might have won it again last season if not for an injury, and is now the owner of by far the richest contract in Brewers history after inking an extension last month. His acquisition is one of the greatest the Brewers have ever made. The Marlins’ end hasn’t worked out nearly as well.
Brinson was the Marlins’ headlining pickup in the Yelich swap, among the absolute top prospects in baseball at the time, but hasn’t come close to living up to the hype so far. The 25-year-old managed a stunningly poor 25 wRC+ (.173/.236/.221) and failed to hit a homer in 248 trips to the plate as a Marlin last season. He has now accounted for minus-2.9 fWAR in 709 major league PA. Harrison’s still a solid prospect – FanGraphs ranks the 24-year-old No. 102 in the game – and has a chance to turn out as the best part of the return for the Marlins. Diaz, 23, hit well in Triple-A ball last year, but he was in over his head during his first MLB stint. And while it’s not saying much, Yamamoto has actually been the most valuable MLB contributor the Marlins have gotten from this trade to this point. After holding his own in the minors from 2017-19, the 23-year-old debuted in Miami last season and turned in 78 2/3 innings of 4.46 ERA/4.51 FIP ball while averaging better than a strikeout per frame.
Despite his unhappiness, tthe Marlins perhaps could have kept Yelich and tried to build around him. But they just about had to trade Ozuna, then a Scott Boras client who wasn’t going to sign an extension before his last two years of team control ran out. There was widespread interest in Ozuna, whom the Marlins wound up sending to the Cardinals for a quartet of young players – righties Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen, outfielder Magneuris Sierra and lefty Daniel Castano.
The Cardinals got two respectable years out of Ozuna before losing him to the Braves in free agency this past winter; because they gave him a qualifying offer beforehand, his departure netted the Redbirds a 2020 compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Perhaps that selection will morph into a valuable young player, as Alcantara and Gallen have at least shown themselves to be. Still just 24, Alcantara parlayed a 95 mph-plus fastball into an impressive MLB season last year, when he tossed 197 1/3 innings of 3.88 ERA/4.55 FIP ball. Gallen may have been able to join him as a long-term linchpin in Miami’s rotation, but the club instead flipped him to Arizona last July in a deal for shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm.
While Gallen has already proven he can handle the majors – he made an eyebrow-raising 80-inning debut between the two teams in 2019 – Chisholm hasn’t gotten past Double-A ball yet. But the 22-year-old logged great production at that level after the trade and is generally regarded as a top 100 prospect. So, perhaps he’ll develop into a nice MLB consolation prize from the Marlins’ pre-2018 outfield fire sale. On the other hand, it seems less hopeful Sierra or Castano will amount to much. The light-hitting, speedy Sierra hasn’t posed a real threat in the minors. The 25-year-old Castano has prevented runs at a good clip since he joined the Marlins’ system, but he’s not regarded as a prospect of note.
Overall, these certainly aren’t the most inspiring results the Marlins could have hoped for when they sold off their top-notch outfield. The Yelich trade would still look particularly regrettable even if he hadn’t evolved into the superstar he has become since the deal. On the bright side, the Marlins have seen Yamamoto and Alcantara show well in the majors, and there’s also hope for some of the other players they received as products of these trades (especially Chisholm).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
still going to regret giving up Gallen.
Some people around the league think Gallen is a #2 or #3, some people say he’s a #5 at best. Either way, it hurts. But Jazz is no sleeper. Before the 2019 season, he was one of the top SS prospects. And I think he regained that for his performance after the trade.
I love Jazz. Great guy and player. He had me cracking up at a game in Birmingham last year.
Gallen already pitched much better than a #5 in his rookie year.
The Marlins took a high risk gamble on a SS because their system lacked one. The Marlins have had success developing SP’s thus far in their rebuild. Though, that could’ve been more luck than skill and it’s inherently risky to assume that will be the norm going forward.
They’ve dealt 2 major league starters and an elite reliever for 2 highly regarded but high variance prospects. It’s a risky gamble for sure. Could payoff.
Well, elite after coming over to TB. And we all know relievers are volatile. But Anderson looked like the real deal.
Probably but the system is pitching heavy and Chisholm looked a lot better after coming over from AZ.
@DarkSide830 Since you’re such a clairvoyant, what are tomorrow’s lotto numbers?
Time for Chuckie All Star Carr to thrive
Well it’s hard to believe but in hindsight two of the three look really good for the fish.
Not a bad return considering it’s still early.
“2018…non-contending”
Part of that is thanks to the untimely death of Jose Fernandez. The Marlins are much better team with him anchoring the rotation.
Frankly the Marlins should be doing everything they can to distance themselves from Jose Fernandez.
Slightly disagree with the Yelich assessment. He wasn’t a superstar the minute he went to Milwaukee, he didn’t even go insane until the 2nd half of 2018; he posted a line that’s about career average in the 1st half.
I wouldn’t say they got a kings ransom for him, but it was still a very good one at the time. A top 25 prospect, a top 100 prospect, a fringe top 100/top 10 2B prospect, and a project pitcher is fair compensation for an admittedly underrated player. However, I’ve heard from Craig Mish that only the Brewers and Blue Jays made serious offers for him, with the Braves being a distant third.
Yup. Swings and Mishes baby!
2/3 of these trades were wins for the Marlins. Jeter has actually done a great job.
Ozuna was more of a win-win. The Cardinals got close to what they needed out of him (including a 2019 playoff appearance and the upcoming draft pick) and didn’t give up anyone they’ll really miss. Sure, Alcantara and Gallen are good young pitchers, but so are Flaherty, Hudson, Hicks, Gallegos, and a bunch of others they have in the organization.
Ozuna is a lazy, slightly better than average player. He gave STL 6% above league average offensively, and his defense slipped quite a bit. Fans should be glad he’s gone.
His defense was fine in 2019 and only slipped in 2018 due to recovering from arm surgery.
As for his offense, it was somewhat disappointing but still what they needed to get into the playoffs and advance to the NLCS last year at a relatively cheap salary. He’s a better bat than anyone the Cardinals have in the outfield right now save for possibly the super-utility player Edman
Just because the Cardinals have a bunch of depth to replace the guys they lost in a lopsided trade, doesn’t take away that the trade was lopsided.
Like I said, it wasn’t lopsided, because the Cardinals got enough out of Ozuna that they would be willing to make the trade all over again. Just like the classic Alexander for Smoltz trade, the Marlins clearly got more value and technically won the deal, but it still proved beneficial to both sides.
Mets were one of the worst defensive teams in the lg last year. And they don’t hit home runs. In this day and age, they really need to out hit their opponents. Bullpen sucked last year. There’s a lot of flaws and a lot of “if’s”
The Mets don’t hit a lot of homeruns bc of their stadium. Switch their stadium with the Yankees and the Mets are called the baby bombers and they hit the most hr in the league
MetsHomer22, Do you still think that A*Roids didn’t want the Marlins or have you abandoned that after you saw the stories come out?
I’m not hyped about their current rebuild either. The only prospect that “scare” me are sixto and Bleday.
Cabrera and alcanatra could be really good too but the other guys are very meh in my opinion.
As long as Jeter doesn’t pull a Loria and sell off the team the minute they look decent, this team in 2-3 years can be dangerous. As for the Mets…. they have yet to prove it with this core group, they’ve underperformed. Mets can be 1st place in the division, they can be worse than the Marlins. I’m not surprised at this point with NYM.
As a braves fan, I’m more scared of the marlins long term right now.
The Nationals window will close. The Phils seem lost but have so much money. The Mets are kind of a wild card. The Braves will be the team to beat for some time it seems. The Marlins just have to stay the course and do what they have not done well in about 20 years….spend money to help the kids.
As a Mets fan I’m not scared of you guys this year…..
I think the Nats and Phillies are in trouble. The Braves look like they have the best future but the Mets have a lot of young talent rn too and they are controllable. The marlins if it was any other organization… I would pay attention to them. But they are the marlins♂️♂️
Mets could be in 1st or 4th yes. Most likely 2nd… You don’t know if they will be the Mets or their talent will finally take over… but I don’t agree that they could be 5th. Marlins have the 5th place spot all but locked down. The talent level is just to far apart….
Even if everything breaks right for the Mets, I still don’t see them beating the Nationals or Braves in the next year or two. Those two teams are just too good, while the Mets still have a number of flaws on their roster even if everyone stays healthy and lives up to their expectations.
The only flaw the Mets have is bullpen and they are a Diaz turn around away from having an elite bullpen.
The Mets have a more talented roster than the Nats. (Nats lineup is not scary at all)
Braves are the favorites but what I meant by not scared is that I’m not naming them division champs. They could easily not win it
You must be joking. The Nationals have a much better offense than the Mets, even if Cespedes actually manages to stay healthy. The Mets overall have a rather middling lineup, while the Nationals lineup is well above-average even without Rendon, and they also get bonus points for having one of the best benches in the league. Meanwhile, the Nats have arguably the best starting the rotation all in MLB, even outdoing the Mets in the area of their greatest strength.
The Mets may possibly beat out one of the two, but it would be very unlikely for them to beat both the Braves and the Nationals, not to mention how tough the Phillies are as well.
Mets lineup is 10x better than Nats. Just look at the stats instead of arguing with me
This is just offense not overall
Soto>Davis (it’s not as far of as you think)
Nimmo>Robles
Conforto> Eaton
Alonso> Kendricks
Cano> Castro (next year cano will have a better year) he was hurt last year
Turner >Rosario (Rosario will make it close next year)
Mcniel> Kieboom
Ramos> Suzuki
That’s 7-2 Mets
And our bench is better at hitting too
First, Cano is done and whoever the Nats put there beats him. Unless he solves the PED test that 7-2 is a 6-3. Also, if healthy, I take Eaton over Conforto to make it 5-4.
Even if it’s 7-2 as you say, 7 is not 10x better than 2. Since I made it 5-4, and that’s being generous, that won’t matter because the Mets need to catch Washington AND Atlanta AND hold off Philly.
Uh, Nimmo is not better than Robles, and if we’re talking about living up to potential, Robles has the far higher upside right now. Nimmo is OBP and nothing else. Pitchers that throw strikes get him out.
And you got some serious homer in your eye in thinking that the gap between Soto and Davis isn’t that far. Soto is a franchise player. Davis a dime a dozen supporting cast player – not even a cornerstone.
Also, let’s see the comparison on defense…I imagine that would be dominated by the Nats.
C – Nats (Either catcher vs Ramos)
1B – may be even, but Nats rotation don’t lose that category compared to Alonso’s defense.
2B – Nats (Do we really need to compare to Cano)
SS – I say even, more or less between Turner and Rosario.
3B – Nats (None of the Mets 3Bs can field)
LF – Nats (none of the Mets LFs are true OFs – more like DHs)
CF – Nats (Robles far defensively superior over Nimmo)
RF – Even
That’s 5 Nats and 2 or 3 even categories and 0 categories for the Mets who are a horrible defensive team, which hurts when they depend on an overrated pitching staff.
And another add, this is where analytics people fail. When you compare offense, you need to compare by spot in the order, not position on defense. When you compare by position, you run into issues with two very valuable offensive players that serve in different roles – for example, a table setter who bats 1st or 2nd vs a run producer.that bats in the middle of the lineup or run producing spot (2-6) like the comparison of Eaton and Conforto. Players whose roles are the same in a lineup is who should be compared. That’s the correct way to compare offenses between teams.
Not having their ace in 2017 hurt the Marlins considerably. An unexpected tragedy. Who knows where the Marlins would be right now had Jose Fernandez not been on that boat. That was the beginning of the end.
“Had not been on that boat”… You mean “not driving the boat while intoxicated and on cocaine”.
Essentially we said the same thing. Hate to bust up the naive, but more than likely Fernandez was using cocaine prior to the incident and passing the drug tests.
The Stanton and Ozuna trades were wins for the Fish. I think if they held on to Yelich and Realmuto, they’d have been in the hunt for a playoff berth last year, had they added a few other pieces. Although I will say I like the return for Realmuto as well. Sixto will be a stud and Alfaro is a solid Major league caliber backstop.
If they had kept those two, there wouldn’t have enough money for a few other pieces. Those two plus a few decent youngsters like Alcantara and very little else wouldn’t have come close to making the playoffs, and then their rebuild would’ve be significantly pushed back.
I don’t think the yelling trade was as bad for the marlins as some make out. They got three quality prospect that will be in the majors the next time we have a season, and Brinson. Brinson turned out a bust but at the time he was a top prospect forever 1St round pick with local roots. He appeared to be a huge pick up for a rebuilding team. I don’t fault the GM for him being a bust, perhaps the player development for moving him too soon but I think it was a good move at the time. Yes yelich is an MVP and any team would love to have him but Miami wasn’t going to contend and he would have been wasted there, they were right to move him, and the return at the time seemed reasonable, I have no doubt if there were better offered they would have taken them. I am a Giants fan so this is an unbiased opinion of the yelich trade at least. I did want to see Stanton in SF just so I could go see him launch bombs into the bay. But that trade would have been bad for the Giants in hindsight.
Would have loved to see them trade everyone but Stanton and then call his bluff or taking the buyout or not. They could have afforded it if they ended up constantly rebuilding. It would not surprise me if that is what ends up happening.
I think the biggest issue the Marlins have now, and have had, is that they don’t develop that one player that can tether to season ticket holders and bring in casual fans. Every team in the NL east has at least one player for “the draw”. If Jeter & Co. could find their “draw”, it could spell nightmares for the NL East in 2 -3 years through big revenue and a few big FA signings.
They’re probably betting that Jazz, Bleday, or Sixto will become “the guy,” but who knows. Either that or Jeter targets a marquee free agent, but the team has gotta be winning for that to happen.
No they don’t. They just have to offer the most $