Archives for 2020

Alex Cora On Suspension, Future

By Connor Byrne | June 11, 2020 at 4:38pm CDT

Former Astros bench coach and Red Sox manager Alex Cora was among those who bore the brunt of the punishment Major League Baseball handed down over Houston’s sign-stealing scandal from its 2017 World Series-winning campaign. Although they were just over a year removed from winning their own title under Cora in 2018, his first season as their skipper, the Red Sox parted with Cora back in January. MLB then suspended Cora through the 2020 postseason this past April.

Shortly after the league banned Cora, he issued a statement taking “full responsibility” for his role in the Astros’ misdeeds. Cora remains contrite for his actions as a Houston assistant, per Marly Rivera of ESPN.com, but he’s unhappy that he and former Astros designated hitter Carlos Beltran have gotten so much blame in comparison to many other members of the organization.

Rivera’s piece is worth reading in full for all of Cora’s quotes, but he said, in part: “Out of this whole process, if there is one thing that I completely reject and disagree with is people within the Astros’ organization singling me out, particularly [former general manager] Jeff Luhnow, as if I were the sole mastermind. The commissioner’s report sort of explained, in its own way, what happened. But the [Astros players] have spoken up and refuted any allegations that I was solely responsible.”

Cora added that “it was not a two-man show. We all did it.” However, he admitted that the ban the league handed him was deserved and he has to pay for his mistakes.

It now remains to be seen whether some of the key members of the scandal will return to the majors. Luhnow and ex-Astros manager A.J. Hinch received one-year suspensions in January. Beltran, now retired from playing, became the Mets’ manager in November, but the team ousted him around the time the league booted Luhnow and Hinch. Cora, though, could be helping his cause with the remorse he has shown throughout this process. He’s also just 44 years and someone with an excellent track record as a manager. And for what it’s worth, Cora told Rivera he “absolutely” wants to get back in the game at some point. For now, though, he’s focusing on his family.

Quick Hits: Harvey, Torkelson, Giants

By Connor Byrne | June 11, 2020 at 4:16pm CDT

While free-agent right-hander Matt Harvey has drawn the attention of teams in the Korea Baseball Organization, a KBO match may not be all that likely. KBO clubs are currently wary of adding new players to their roster because those individuals would need at least six weeks from debuting, per Daniel Kim of MBC. There would be a few notable hoops for someone like Harvey to jump through, including a two-week quarantine, acquiring a work visa and getting into game shape. There’s also the fact that KBO teams are only allowed to carry two foreign-born pitchers, Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs points out. Beyond that, Jaffe explains that Harvey may have a difficult time boosting his stock enough in the KBO even if he does land there. The former ace, 31, is coming off a mostly disastrous run over the past few seasons, thanks in part to major injuries and a serious dip in velocity, so it’s unclear whether he’ll get another MLB opportunity.

Adding Up The Braves Future Salary Obligations

By Jeff Todd | June 11, 2020 at 2:21pm CDT

2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Braves:

*Includes buyouts of club options over Ozzie Albies, Will Smith, Ender Inciarte, and Darren O’Day

(click to expand/view detail list)

Baseball’s Most Interesting Upcoming Free Agent?

By Jeff Todd | June 11, 2020 at 12:33pm CDT

This post is about Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons. But really, it’s about how teams value and conceive of defense in the game of baseball … and what his upcoming free agency could tell us about it.

On the one hand, it’s rather straightforward: preventing runs is as good as creating them. It’s an oversimplification, but for the most part the name of the game is simply to turn would-be baserunners into outs.

Things get quite a bit more complicated when you wade into an attempt at valuing a given player’s impact on a team’s ability to make outs and prevent runs. Avoiding miscues is obviously a big part of the picture, but that hardly provides the full picture of a defender. (Past a diving Jeter, anyone?) Range — the ability to get to more balls — is obviously of critical importance. And there are a host of subtle skills to consider … catcher framing, perhaps, being the most susceptible of statistical precision. But how do you value a tagging maestro, for example? And how do we account for contemporary baseball’s ceaseless shifting, particularly given that much of it is engineered by analysts rather than players’ gut instincts on positioning?

While it’s pretty easy to get a sense of a hitter’s profile and productivity from a glance at a stat sheet, it’s obvious that truly understanding defensive value requires more. Even the most sophisticated analytical systems have struggled to reach anything like the kind of precision that we’d need to make fine distinctions. Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved, and the more recent Statcast-based Outs Above Average all have their merits and aid in the understanding of a ballplayer. But it’d be a stretch to say that you could look at the numbers they produce and use them to determine that player A is superior to player B at fielding his position.

All that said … shouldn’t we listen when all the stats, and all the scouts, and all that we see with our own eyes tell us that one particular player is in his own particular category when it comes to defensive play? On a rate basis, no infielder comes particularly close to Simmons in UZR. To understand how that translates to value when estimating runs saved and tabulating wins above replacement … well, just look how many more innings it took guys like J.J. Hardy and Jimmy Rollins to accrue similar total value above replacement at the shortstop position. And it’s not just UZR. Far from it. By measure of DRS, Simmons has been outlandishly superior to the rest of the shortstop field. Statcast, at least, shows some competition over the past three seasons from Nick Ahmed, but it too agrees that Simmons is an exceptional performer. (It’s also less than clear that Statcast is as useful for infielders as it is for outfielders.)

It doesn’t seem wild to presume, for purposes of this post at least, that Simmons is a historically amazing defensive performer. Teams no doubt have their own ways of translating fielding performance to value, but it’s generally reasonable to believe they’ll put a high price on run prevention. Even if you’d rather market a slugger than a glove-first shortstop, there’s no general reason to prefer the former to the latter from a competitive standpoint.

Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that a truly elite defender is all the more valuable to a team — especially in this day and age. Positioning defenders to account not only for hitters, but defenders, has long been a part of the sport. But it’s now done with much greater sophistication and frequency. The Reds just signed Mike Moustakas to play second base after watching the Brewers try him there despite a career spent at third. For creative ballclubs looking for ways to shoehorn every advantage into a lineup, the ability to deploy a human vacuum/cannon on the left side of the infield could convey even greater value than that player’s directly attributable individual contribution.

It’s truly fascinating to imagine what teams might envision doing with Simmons … and wondering how much they’ll be willing to pay. (Setting aside the likely market-skewing impact of the coronavirus-shortened season, anyway.) The Diamondbacks just made a fairly significant outlay to Ahmed, despite the fact he has never really come close to league-average offensive productivity over a full season and was still a year from free agency. Even if you believe Ahmed has approached Simmons in defensive capabilities, he hasn’t done it as long. And Simmons has a far superior overall track record at the plate, with a lifetime batting output that’s about the same as Ahmed’s single-season peak. Supposing Simmons is in typical form in 2020 — unparalleled glovework and league-average-ish offense — he ought to fetch a fair sight more on the open market … particularly if big-market teams get involved with big ideas about how to squeeze value from such a unique player.

Did The Tigers Make The Right Choice At 1-1?

By Jeff Todd | June 11, 2020 at 10:22am CDT

We polled MLBTR’s readers last night about the biggest surprises on the first day of the 2020 MLB draft. Thus far, the Red Sox’ decision to choose Nick Yorke in the first round has drawn the most votes.

Before Yorke’s name was called, the Tigers had first crack at every single player available. The rebuilding ballclub went with Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson, an advanced player with an unassailable offensive track record, effectively making him the heir apparent to legendary slugger Miguel Cabrera. The two could well overlap in the middle of the Detroit order for a few years, supposing Torkelson develops as hopes and Cabrera can rebound.

Easy enough, right? There weren’t any gasps of disbelief when Torkelson’s name was called. Then again … the Tigers did have other options.

Pundits have long debated whether Torkelson or Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin was a better selection at the top of the board. The latter has a much broader toolset and could potentially have fit into the long-term picture in Detroit in any number of ways. There’s a reason the Blue Jays were thrilled to see him somehow still available with the fifth overall selection. Perhaps the Tigers would’ve been wiser to roll with a player of this sort, particularly given the club’s complicated recent history with defensively limited slugger types. (While the Tigers have thrived with big bats, they’ve also whiffed on big money to Cabrera and Victor Martinez and ran into difficulty maximizing their control rights over J.D. Martinez and Nicholas Castellanos.)

As the Orioles showed us, that wasn’t the only alternative. The Baltimore organization decided to cut a deal with another highly valued prospect, Heston Kjerstad, in order to (presumably) allocate some of the bonus pool funds from their lofty draft pick to day-two selections. Given the limitations of this year’s draft, that strategy could open the door to some high-ceiling talent and spread the team’s draft resources over multiple players. As the debate over Torkelson and Martin shows, neither of the two was considered an especially compelling 1-1 candidate when viewed against those taken at the top in past years. The Tigers, like the O’s, certainly need a volume of players and could conceivably have taken this path as well.

There was at least one other possible approach for the Detroit brass to bat around: taking top collegiate hurler Asa Lacy of Texas A&M. The club reportedly dabbled with that idea ahead of time, due in part to the fact that they’ll now have to negotiate with agent Scott Boras over terms on Torkelson. (Boras also reps Martin.) Taking Lacy would’ve put another advanced arm into a system that’s already loaded with them. And that would’ve fit as part of a legitimate plan to pump arms into the system. There’s a reason we’ve all heard the phrases, “you can never have enough pitching” and “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” There’s risk and upside and need all at once. Had the Tigers ended up with an over-abundance of MLB-ready arms … well, they’d likely have little trouble finding innings and/or swapping some hurlers out for whatever bats they might need at the time. Lacy might not have been such an under-slot play as the O’s pulled, but perhaps there’d have been some leftover coin to work with in that scenario as well.

So … how do you view the Tigers’ decision? (Poll link for app users.)

How Did The Tigers Handle 1-1?

Smart not to overthink it; Torkelson was the right choice. 83.20% (6,398 votes)

Should have selected Martin. 10.75% (827 votes)

Should have selected Lacy. 3.69% (284 votes)

Should have pursued an under-slot deal like the Orioles did. 2.35% (181 votes)

Total Votes: 7,690

Harper Leads Hefty Slate Of Future Phillies Contract Commitments

By Jeff Todd | June 11, 2020 at 7:57am CDT

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Phillies:

*Includes buyouts of club options over Aaron Nola, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, Scott Kingery, Odubel Herrera and David Robertson

(click to expand/view detail list)

Poll: Biggest First-Round Surprise

By Steve Adams and Connor Byrne | June 11, 2020 at 12:33am CDT

The No. 1 pick in this year’s Major League Baseball Rule 4 Draft went as expected: The Tigers took Arizona State slugger Spencer Torkelson. Otherwise, though, there were some eye-openers in Wednesday’s first round, as Jim Callis of MLB.com and Keith Law of The Athletic were among those to cover. Let’s take a look at some of those moves and then you can vote on the biggest surprise from the opening round.

Vanderbilt 3B/OF Austin Martin “falls” to Blue Jays at No. 5: It’s a bit hyperbolic to suggest that someone who went fifth overall actually “fell” down. Martin was regarded by some as the best all-around prospect in the draft and was expected by many to go in the top two picks. Once the Orioles passed on him, though, both the Marlins and Royals opted to do the same, dropping yet another premium position player prospect into the Blue Jays’ laps. Martin will now join a future core that includes Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson, among others.
Orioles select Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad at No. 2: Everyone anticipated that Kjerstad would be a first-rounder, but closer to the middle of the round. Kjerstad is regarded as having some of the best left-handed pop in the class — if not the best left-handed pop. But the Orioles are likely going to look to cut a deal here, thus allowing them to double up on a more balanced pair of high-end prospects.
Minnesota RHP Max Meyer goes No. 3 to the Marlins: Meyer was projected as a Top 10 pick, but southpaw Asa Lacy was generally expected to be the top pitcher off the board, with most mock drafts projecting him to go to the Marlins. Miami clearly liked Meyer better, despite concerns about his height (6’0″). The Gopher ace runs his heater up into triple digits and will give the Fish a power arm to pair with an already-impressive crop of young pitching talent.
Giants grab another college catcher: Two years after grabbing Joey Bart at No. 2 in the 2018 draft, the Giants used yet another top pick on a backstop. This time, with the 13th choice, San Francisco went with North Carolina State’s Patrick Bailey. Between Bart and Bailey, perhaps the Giants will be able to find at least one successor to franchise great Buster Posey. Regardless, president of baseball Farhan Zaidi simply believes Bailey was too good to pass on in that spot. “You don’t draft for need and you can never have too much catching,” Zaidi said (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, on Twitter).
A Red Sox reach? In a move that J.J. Cooper of Baseball America regards as “the shock of the first round,” Boston used the 17th pick on Nick Yorke, a high school middle infielder from California. Yorke was not regarded by prospect gurus as a first-rounder entering the draft; however, because the Red Sox don’t have a second-rounder this year, they felt it was worthwhile to pick up Yorke when they still could.

(Poll link for app users)

Biggest surprise of Round 1?

Red Sox select Nick Yorke 42.06% (4,926 votes)

Heston Kjerstad at No. 2 22.09% (2,587 votes)

Austin Martin at No. 5 21.51% (2,519 votes)

Giants take Patrick Bailey 7.51% (880 votes)

Other 3.93% (460 votes)

Max Meyer at No. 3 2.91% (341 votes)

Total Votes: 11,713

Red Sox Will Reportedly Sign First-Rounder Nick Yorke To Below-Slot Deal

By Connor Byrne | June 10, 2020 at 10:20pm CDT

The Red Sox used the 17th pick in Wednesday’s first round on high school second baseman Nick Yorke, and it appears the two will reach an agreement. It’s “expected” that Yorke will sign for less than the $3.61MM slot value of his selection, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. The Red Sox have a bonus pool of $5,129,900, but they’re working without a second-rounder after losing it as a result of a sign-stealing scandal.

As Matt Eddy of Baseball America notes, Yorke became the first high school second baseman to come off the board in the opening round since LeVon Washington (a former Rays pick who didn’t sign) in 2009. Otherwise, only Rich Puig (1971), Terry Lee (1974) and Blake DeWitt (2004) have done it.

The California-born Yorke came into the draft “as one of the best pure hitters on the West Coast thanks to a well-balanced swing and excellent timing,” J.J. Cooper of Baseball America writes. However, MLB.com only placed Yorke in the No. 139 spot among this year’s draft prospects, citing concerns with his defense and a past shoulder surgery.

2020 MLB Draft Results – First Round

By Connor Byrne | June 10, 2020 at 9:23pm CDT

The 2020 amateur draft kicked off Wednesday. We’ll keep track of the results from Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A here…

1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 3B/1B, Arizona State
2. Baltimore Orioles: Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
3. Miami Marlins: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
4. Kansas City Royals: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Austin Martin, INF/OF, Vanderbilt
6. Seattle Mariners: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Gonzales, SS/2B, New Mexico State
8. San Diego Padres: Robert Hassell III, OF, Independence HS (TN)
9. Colorado Rockies: Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (FLA)
10. Los Angeles Angels: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
11. Chicago White Sox: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
12. Cincinnati Reds: Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (PA)
13. San Francisco Giants: Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State
14. Texas Rangers: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State
15. Philadelphia Phillies: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR)
16. Chicago Cubs: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (ILL)
17. Boston Red Sox: Nick Yorke, 2B, Archbishop Mitty HS (CA)
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
19. New York Mets: Pete Crow-Armstong, OF, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA)
22. Washington Nationals: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
23. Cleveland Indians: Carson Tucker, SS, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ)
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks-East HS (PA)
25. Atlanta Braves: Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
26. Oakland Athletics: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA)
27. Minnesota Twins: Aaron Sabato, 1B, UCLA
28. New York Yankees: Austin Wells, C, Arizona
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville

Competitive Balance Round A:

30. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Westburg, INF, Mississippi State
31. Pittsburgh Pirates: Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
32. Kansas City Royals: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
33. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
34. San Diego Padres: Justin Lange, RHP, Llano HS (TX)
35. Colorado Rockies: Drew Romo, C, The Woodlands HS (TX)
36. Cleveland Indians: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State

Tigers Select Spencer Torkelson With No. 1 Pick

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2020 at 6:14pm CDT

The Tigers have made official what so many have expected to be the case over the past several months: Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has been selected by Detroit with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft. Interestingly, the team announced him as a third baseman — where he played in high school but has not appeared in college. The slot value for the top pick checks in at $8.415MM.

Torkelson, still just 20 years of age, has wowed scouts with his power, plate discipline and feel for hitting throughout his career with the Sun Devils. A career .337/.463/.729 hitter with 54 home runs, 33 doubles and a 110-to-104 BB/K ratio in 628 college plate appearances, Torkelson was off to his best start yet when the NCAA halted play due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Through 17 games and 82 plate appearances in 2020, Torkelson had posted a ridiculous .340/.598/.780 slash with six homers and 31 walks against 15 punchouts.

Pre-draft rankings were in agreement that Torkelson and Vanderbilt third baseman/outfielder Austin Martin were the top two talents in this year’s draft. Most gave Torkelson the slight edge — he topped the rankings at Baseball America, ESPN, FanGraphs and MLB.com — although some peg Martin as the slightly better all-around prospect due to his superior defensive value.

There’s little arguing that the Tigers made any sort of misstep, though. Torkelson is widely regarded as a potentially fast-moving bat with off-the-charts power who could hit in the middle of a big league lineup for years to come. That’d be music to the ears for the Tigers and their fans, as the organization’s lengthy rebuild has resulted in a farm system that is deep in high-end pitching talent but has fewer bats on the fast track to the Majors. Right-handers Casey Mize (the No. 1 pick in 2018) and Matt Manning, coupled with southpaw Tarik Skubal, give the Tigers a trio of arms upon which to dream. That trio is backed by several other potential rotation pieces, including Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows and Franklin Perez.

Torkelson should immediately become the Tigers’ top position prospect — and one of the top position prospects in all of baseball for that matter. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen writes that the 20-year-old Torkelson possesses “sublime hitter’s timing, plus bat speed, and above-average barrel control and ball/strike recognition,” ultimately tabbing him as a future “thumping, heart of the order hitter.” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel calls him the safest pick in the draft, pointing to his previous success with a wood bat in summer league play and calling Torkelson a potentially “above-average hitter with an above-average walk rate and 30+ homers.”

Torkelson is being advised by the Boras Corporation, but there’s no indication that a deal will be difficult to reach. In fact, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News suggested yesterday that the two sides are expected to come to terms on a deal in the vicinity of Torkelson’s slot value without a long, drawn-out negotiation process. Assuming that indeed pans out, the Tigers will suddenly find themselves with five of the top 60 prospects in baseball according to each of MLB.com, FanGraphs, Baseball America and The Athletic (joining the aforementioned pitchers and 2019 first-round outfielder Riley Greene).

It’s been an excruciating rebuild process for Tigers fans, but the team’s next core is coming into focus, and Torkelson should be squarely in the middle of the team’s resurgence.

Photo courtesy of Arizona State University Media Relations.

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