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NPB’s Rakuten Golden Eagles Sign Rusney Castillo

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JANUARY 10: Castillo will be guaranteed $600K on the deal, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The pact includes another $1MM in potential incentives.

JANUARY 9: Former Red Sox outfielder Rusney Castillo has signed with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball.  The Eagles officially announced the move today, after reports out of Mexico last month suggested Castillo was preparing to join the Japanese team.

Castillo last played in the majors in 2016, appearing in nine games for Boston that left him with a .262/.301/.379 slash line over 337 career plate appearances from 2014-16.  The big majority (289 PA) of that playing time came in 2015, when Castillo seemed ticketed for regular duty in Boston’s outfield after being called up from the minors in May, but Castillo stumbled to just a .647 OPS that season.

Though he signed a seven-year, $72.5MM deal as an international free agent in August 2014, Castillo was already on the outs with the Red Sox, as the team put him on waivers and outrighted him to Triple-A in June.  This left Castillo stuck in a contractual loophole, as his salary was no longer counted against Boston’s luxury tax bill since he was outrighted.  However, the new collective bargaining agreement from the 2016-17 changed these terms, so Castillo couldn’t be returned to the Red Sox 40-man roster without the entirety of his remaining contract being again counted for luxury tax purposes.

As a result, Castillo was more or less trapped at Triple-A Pawtucket to play out the remainder of his deal.  He ended up posting a respectable .295/.335/.425 slash line with 42 homers over his 1973 career PA with the PawSox, and he will now head to Japan in an attempt to spark what has been a thoroughly unusual career.

Barring any changes to international signing rules in the upcoming CBA talks, Castillo’s $72.5MM deal will stand for the foreseeable future as the largest deal ever given to a Cuban free agent.  It also stands out as one of the more expensive misfires in Red Sox history, though it shouldn’t be forgotten that Castillo had enough potential coming out of Cuba that almost every team in baseball had some level of interest in him back in 2014.  Should Castillo play well for the Eagles, it will be interesting to see if he remains in Japan next winter or perhaps explores a return to Major League Baseball.

Yankees To Sign Tyler Lyons

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The Yankees have re-signed Tyler Lyons to a minor-league contract, per the MLB.com transactions page. The veteran southpaw pitched in one game for New York last season.

Lyons has bounced on and off the Yankees’ roster a few times since he first signed with New York in August 2019. The 32-year-old has tallied 10.2 relief innings across twelve appearances in pinstripes, allowing eight earned runs. Lyons hasn’t found much success over the past three years with any of the Cardinals, Pirates or Yankees. He did, however, have a few productive seasons in St. Louis early in his career.

In spite of Lyons’ recent history, there’s no harm in bringing back a familiar player on a minor-league pact to bolster organizational depth. Aside from closer Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton is the only lefty reliever on the Yankees’ 40-man roster.

Nationals Sign Kyle Schwarber

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1:31PM: The signing has been officially announced by the Nationals.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the deal also contains an $11MM mutual option for the 2022 season.  That option contains a $3MM buyout, so Schwarber’s guaranteed money breaks down as that $3MM plus $7MM in salary.

9:44AM: The Nationals have signed outfielder Kyle Schwarber to a one-year contract, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reports (via Twitter).  The deal will be official once Schwarber passes a physical.  Schwarber will earn $10MM from the one-year pact, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Schwarber is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Dougherty reported last month that the Nats were looking into Schwarber after he was non-tendered by the Cubs, with such teams as the Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins also linked to the slugger’s market.  It isn’t surprising that Schwarber generated such interest given that he had a 38-homer season in 2019, and hit .234/.337/.492 (with 94 homers) over 1606 PA with Chicago from 2017-19.

Kyle SchwarberWhile those numbers were solid, however, they weren’t quite the elite-level production Chicago hoped to receive from a player drafted fourth overall in 2014.  Schwarber’s gains with his bat were also rather mitigated by a lot of swings-and-misses (512 strikeouts from 2017-20, the 12th-most of any hitter in baseball in that stretch) and average to subpar baserunning and left field defense.

Things went south for Schwarber in 2020, as he hit only .188/.308/.393 with 11 home runs over 224 plate appearances.  Between these lackluster numbers and the Cubs’ desire to cut payroll, Schwarber was non-tendered so Chicago could avoid paying him an arbitration salary projected to fall somewhere between $7.01MM and $9.3MM.

The fact that Schwarber surpassed even the highest arb projection in landing $10MM from Washington is indicative both of how much interest there must have been in his services, and a sign that the Nats are taking more stock in some of Schwarber’s advanced metrics than his bottom-line 2020 numbers.  A look at Statcast indicates a solid case for a bounce-back performance, as Schwarber still made plenty of hard contact (including a 95th-percentile exit velocity of 92.8 mph).  Between a .219 BABIP and a .302 wOBA that fell well beneath his above-average .330 xwOBA, it can also be argued that Schwarber ran into some bad luck over his sample size of 224 PA.

The Nationals are certainly hoping for a return for the 2017-19 version of Schwarber, as his left-handed bat would nicely augment a D.C. lineup that still leaned mostly towards right-handed hitters even after the addition of switch-hitter Josh Bell.  Between Bell and Schwarber, the Nats have now added two sluggers looking for rebound seasons, and a lot of major power potential to a team that finished 21st among all clubs in home runs last year.

Juan Soto looks to be moving to right field to accommodate Schwarber, a position shift that was known to be under consideration depending on what type of corner outfielder the Nationals brought into the mix.  Schwarber will surely get some DH time should the National League again use the designated hitter next season, which might have the benefit of unlocking some additional hitting potential for Schwarber since he could focus solely on hitting for those games.  It also isn’t out of the question that Washington could break Schwarber in as a first baseman, as Anthony Rizzo’s presence at the position forced the Cubs to deploy Schwarber in the outfield once Schwarber was moved from his original catcher spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Timeline Of Twins’ Negotiation With Nelson Cruz

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At the outset of the offseason, Nelson Cruz was said to be seeking a two-year deal, in theory from the Minnesota Twins. Not much has changed on that front, though as time wears on, it seems less and less likely the Twins will meet his demand. Coming off back-to-back silver slugger awards as the Twins’ designated hitter, it would seem a given that Minnesota would do whatever necessary to bring back Cruz, even as he enters his age-40 season. He’s a team leader, a fan favorite, and a standout citizen, evidenced by being the Twins’ Roberto Clemente Award nominee in 2020 and in winning the Marvin Miller Man Of The Year Award for being the player who has earned the “most respect based on his leadership on the field and in the community,” as explained the Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III back in October.

Under a different context, the opportunity to add a 163 wRC+ hitter for two years at $14MM per season would be almost too good to believe. Under the current context, however, the Twins have yet to sign Cruz, nor even has there been much in the way of dialogue, per Neal’s newest piece for the Star Tribune. Neal consulted with multiple sources to provide a timeline of Cruz’s negotiation with the Twins so far this winter.

The Twins made a one-year offer during the opening weeks of free agency, then pulled it off the table after a couple of weeks. A second contract offer was made during the holidays that went nowhere as Cruz’s camp waited for word on the NL. There hasn’t been a lot of back-and-forth negotiating between the sides.

The assumption is there will be no designated hitter in the National League in 2021, which limits the field of potential Cruz suitors, but if the Twins wait long enough, it’s hard to imagine there won’t be more opportunities for Cruz. Interestingly, Neal names the Padres as one NL team that would be interested in Cruz were there to be a DH in the NL. Adding Cruz to any lineup ought to be a boon for that team, though putting him on a Padres roster with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado could very well make the Friars one of the more highly anticipated rosters MLB has seen in some time. Over the past two seasons, Cruz slashed .308/.394/.626 with a monstrous .318 ISO, 11 percent walk rate, 25.7 percent strikeout rate, 163 wRC+, and 6.2 fWAR over 735 plate appearances.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber’s Potential?

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In a sport known for its protracted regular season and voluminous historical records – playing for a franchise that had been without a championship crown for over a century – Kyle Schwarber established his legacy over a seven-game stretch of the 2016 playoffs. Though he only appeared in five games of the World Series, physical perseverance, inspired play and a confident batting eye turned Schwarber into a Chicago legend at the tender age of 23. His presence as a designated hitter for road contests at Progressive Field played no small part in turning the tide on a 3-1 series deficit (though starting Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in consecutive games didn’t hurt either). Schwarber reached base in half of his 20 plate appearances, and the Cubs won three of four games in Cleveland to take the crown.

While the baseball community largely recognizes that playoff performance is not predictive – nor repeatable – Schwarber is living proof that small samples, at times, do prove enduring. Schwarber will be memorialized for generations in Chicago for his appearance against the Cleveland Indians in 2016.

His myth-making return from season-ending injury is also a warning against our tendency to muddle the narrative of heroes. In that World Series, Schwarber did lengthen the lineup and provide a fear factor that was easier to see in real-time than in box scores after the fact, but it’s fair to wonder if his impact in Cleveland didn’t unwittingly get conflated with his status as a top prospect and his gargantuan output in the 2015 playoffs, when he hit .333/.419/.889 with five home runs in nine playoff games. The years since have only further complicated our ability to manufacture a compact narrative for Schwarber as a ballplayer. For starters, even a .136/.321/.273 line with just one home run, one RBI, two runs scored, and a negative championship win probability over 10 playoff games since 2016 hasn’t totally erased his reputation as a “championship proven” bat.

Further, his stat line in any given year is like an optical illusion (is he black and blue or white and gold?). His production hasn’t matched his reputation, and the advanced metrics don’t match the on-field production. In 2018, Schwarber hit a high-water mark by measure of 3.2 fWAR despite a .238 batting average and career-low 41.5 hard hit percentage. In 2019, he actualizes his “slugger” persona with a .531 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, and 38 home runs. He posted new highs with a 120 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 50.9 hard hit percentage – the third-highest mark in the Majors. The total package still amounted to just 2.1 bWAR/2.6 fWAR – solid numbers, but shy of the line for a presumed All-Star.

Then 2020 happened. His launch angle plummeted, and his .219 BABIP, .204 ISO, .188/.308/.393 line, and 90 wRC+ were all career-worst numbers. When the Cubs non-tendered him rather than pay the projected $7MM to $9MM in arbitration, few were surprised.

But the Nationals paid him $10MM for the 2021 season anyway – and that wasn’t shocking either. After all, Schwarber’s batted ball numbers have made him a popular bounce-back candidate among the Statcast crowd, and it’s not hard to see why: His resume includes finishing in the 95th percentile by exit velocity in 2019 and 2020, the 92nd percentile by barrel percentage in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and that 99th percentile mark by hard hit percentage in 2019.

At the same time, it’s worth considering how much of a role his subpar speed and 28 percent career strikeout rate play in his “under-performance.” He’s not the worst defender in the world, but negative three defensive runs saved in each of the last two seasons doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll become a plus on that end of the field. Of course, with Victor Robles beside him in the outfield and Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg (hopefully) missing bats on a regular basis, the Nats seem to believe he doesn’t have to be a gold glove candidate. Besides, should the designated hitter make its way permanently to the National League, he may not have to spend every day in the grass.

The Nationals hope a reunion with Dave Martinez will provide Schwarber a comfortable environment to reset after a disappointing final season in Chicago. Beyond his relationship with Martinez – his bench coach for the first three years of his career – Schwarber will have a new social circle with whom to yuk it up about the ins-and-outs of hitting. That group will include hitting coach Kevin Long, his collegiate buddy Trea Turner, fellow new kid Josh Bell, and phenom Juan Soto. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato provides video of Schwarber himself breaking down his new team (via Twitter).

Still very much in his prime entering his age-28 season, Schwarber may yet fulfill the legendary potential he established in the 2016 World Series. Given the new faces in the division and the now-rote proficiency of the three-time defending division champion Braves, the Nationals are counting on a big season from Schwarber to help the franchise rebound from a difficult 2020.

All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become a devastating middle-of-the-order presence? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?

Of course, there are many different ways to skin this cat, so let me offer this final framework as one way to simplify. Schwarber’s value proposition is his bat. By wRC+, which attempts to measure offensive contribution, adjusted for park and league, Schwarber has created 13 more runs than the average player over his career. As noted above, his career-high over a full season is 120 wRC+. But he also produced a 131 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015. For context, 35 players posted a wRC+ higher than 130 in 2019, 24 managed that mark in 2018. Can Schwarber be one of those guys in 2021?

Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber's Potential?
No 62.34% (5,781 votes)
Yes 37.66% (3,493 votes)
Total Votes: 9,274
(poll link for app users)

Schwarber's wRC+ in 2021 will be...
Between 100 wRC+ and 109 wRC+ 33.31% (2,307 votes)
Between 110 wRC+ and 119 wRC+ 29.13% (2,017 votes)
Under 100 wRC+ 18.12% (1,255 votes)
Between 120 wRC+ and 130 wRC+ 13.16% (911 votes)
Over 130 wRC+ 6.28% (435 votes)
Total Votes: 6,925
(poll link for app users)

Quick Hits: Nationals, Schwarber, Martinez, Royals, Dozier, Red Sox, Prospects, Blalock, Yorke

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Kyle Schwarber is now a member of the Washington Nationals, in no small part because of Nats manager Dave Martinez, per ESPN. Schwarber, of course, won a World Series with Martinez as his bench coach in Chicago. In fact, Martinez was the Cubs bench coach for the first three years of Schwarber’s career. Said Schwarber, per ESPN, “I love [Martinez] to death. I’m so excited to play for this guy. He only wants to win.” Washington hopes Martinez can help Schwarber recapture some of the magic that made him a star in Chicago. Schwarber will also reunite with Starlin Castro, with whom he played as a rookie on the 2015 Cubs. Elsewhere…

  • Royals Assistant General Managers Scott Sharp and Jin Wong remain active in reaching out to agents about potential free agents, writes MLB.com’s Jason Beck. The Royals have been one of the more proactive teams in the Majors so far this winter, coming to terms with Mike Minor, Greg Holland, Michael A. Taylor, and Carlos Santana to Major League deals, all before the new year. The Royals are still potentially on the lookout for a left-handed bat, notes Beck. With just about $87MM in payroll commitments, the Royals have just a couple million before matching last year’s payroll. It wasn’t long ago, however, that Kansas City ran up payrolls over the century mark, so it’s possible they could extend yet another Major League contract, should the right deal fall their way.
  • Ryan O’Hearn, Franchy Cordero, and Nicky Lopez are the only pure left-handed bats on the roster, and only the latter has a guaranteed spot as a regular player. Adalberto Mondesi and Carlos Santana are switch-hitters who will be in the lineup every day, but both have traditionally fared better hitting from the right side. In terms of their targets, Beck also notes that the Royals are growing comfortable with Hunter Dozier as the regular third baseman. All that in mind, a lefty corner outfielder would fit nicely onto the roster. Should they not find a bat at an appropriate price point, however, the Royals are believers in the long-term ability of Khalil Lee, who is a candidate for playing time in 2021.
  • Red Sox prospect Bradley Blalock was a 32nd round draft choice in 2019, but after adding 10 pounds and roughly six miles per hour to his fastball, the 20-year-old right-hander will enter 2021 as a player to watch, per Alex Speier of Baseball America. Blalock is more-or-less just beginning his professional career, having signed out of high school for $250K in July of 2019. The Georgia native made just four appearances in rookie ball, giving up five earned runs on five hits and four walks while striking out four over 6 2/3 innings. Elsewhere in the system, the prospect gurus at MLB.com name Nick Yorke as a player who could rise quickly through Boston’s system, writing, “The California prep product has the sweet right-handed swing, bat speed, pitch recognition and discipline to potentially become a .300 hitter with 20 homers per season.” Yorke was the No. 17 overall selection of the 2020 draft.

 

Sung-Bum Na Returning To NC Dinos

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Slugging Korean outfield Sung-Bum Na’s posting period came to an end today. The 31-year-old, who has played his entire eight-year career with the NC Dinos, will return to the KBO after failing to come to an agreement with a Major League team, per a SPOTV report, writes the KBO’s Sung Min Kim (via Twitter).

Na was posted a month ago with the hopes of catching on with a Major League club. As a corner outfielder, Na already faced a steep competitive field that offers a fair swath of alternative options, but a knee injury suffered in 2019 and his age likely complicated his market. Still, he hit .324/.390/.596 for the Dinos in 2020 with 34 home runs, 25.3 percent strikeout rate, and 8.3 percent walk rate. The strikeout and walk rates likely did not work in Na’s favor, but the power is compelling.

The free agent market is an unforgiving one this offseason, however, and it might be that Na was too uncertain an asset for interested teams. The 30-day posting period also likely worked against him given the glacial pace of free agency. Ultimately, agent Scott Boras was unable to find a deal. As we saw recently with Tomoyuki Sugano, Na is not the only overseas star to face a less-welcoming financial landscape than expected. Na will now will return to the Dinos for a ninth season. He will, however, be a free agent again after 2021, notes Kim, at which point he could pursue the possibility of jumping to MLB again.

Phillies Acquire Sam Coonrod From Giants

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The Phillies have acquired right-hander Sam Coonrod from the Giants in exchange for pitching prospect Carson Ragsdale, according to ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan (Twitter link).

Originally a fifth-round pick in the 2014 draft, Coonrod debuted in the big leagues by posting a 3.58 ERA over 27 2/3 innings for the Giants in 2019, though advanced metrics weren’t impressed by his work.  That fortune turned in 2020, as while Coonrod’s advanced numbers improved, his ERA ballooned to 9.82 in 14 2/3 frames.  Overall, Coonrod has a 5.74 ERA, 18.9 K%, 7 K-BB%, and 5.05 SIERA over his brief Major League career.

Coonrod missed much of the 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery but he returned from that long rehab with plenty of heat on his fastball, averaging 97.1 mph in the bigs.  He was a regular starting pitcher in the minors prior to his surgery, but Coonrod could best be positioned to remain a relief pitcher for the foreseeable future.

While he may have been expendable for the Giants, the Phillies will surely take a live arm as they try to rebuild a bullpen that posted dreadful numbers in 2020.  Newly-hired Phils pitching coach Caleb Cotham and bullpen coach Jim Gott will now be tasked with seeing if they can turn Coonrod’s velocity and excellent curveball spin into consistent results for the 28-year-old.

Ragsdale was Philadelphia’s fourth-round selection in the 2020 draft, so he has yet to begin his pro career.  A product of the University Of South Florida, Ragsdale’s college career was interrupted by Tommy John surgery but he still posted a 3.75 ERA and a very impressive 33.6 K% over 50 1/3 NCAA innings, albeit with some control problems.  MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 30th-best prospect in the Phillies’ farm system, citing his promising fastball and curve but also noting that there is still a lot of uncertainty over Ragsdale’s potential as a starter due to the lack of games in the abbreviated 2020 NCAA season.

Free Agent Notes: Ozuna, Schwarber, Romo, Twins

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Marcell Ozuna drew a lot of early attention once the free agent market opened, but there hasn’t been much recent news on the slugger’s quest to find a new team.  As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe plainly puts it, “there is little buzz around the 30-year-old,” as clubs don’t seem willing to move on Ozuna until there is a firm answer about whether or not the NL will adopt the designated hitter in 2021.

Though there has been some thought that Ozuna’s recent change in representation indicated that he wanted a quicker end to his free agent journey, there might be a lack of offers on the table, or perhaps a lack of offers that Ozuna finds acceptable, and he is also waiting for news on the DH situation rather than potentially leave more money on the table if the universal DH becomes a reality in relatively short order.

In other free agent buzz…

  • Kyle Schwarber drew interest from at least a half-dozen teams before agreeing to a one-year, $10MM contract with the Nationals today, according to ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link).  The Twins, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Angels were some of the teams linked to Schwarber in earlier reports, and the level of interest is further evidence that there is “always a market for lefty sluggers,” as Rogers notes.
  • Several of the most prominent names from the Twins’ 2020 bullpen have entered free agency, with Trevor May (Mets) and Matt Wisler (Giants) already signed to other rosters.  On top of these departures, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune considers it “unlikely” that Sergio Romo will be re-signed, while Tyler Clippard is a “maybe.”  The Twins declined their $5MM club option on Romo’s services for 2021 and now could poised to move on entirely from the veteran.  Minnesota has already signed Hansel Robles to add some experience to the bullpen, and while the Twins are hoping some of their younger arms also step up, Neal figures the club is continuing to explore the relief market since their current group “could use an additional hard thrower.”

Mets, Cubs Had “Recent Trade Talks” About Kris Bryant

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TODAY: “The Mets and Cubs have not spoken in several weeks,” according to SNY’s Andy Martino, and it doesn’t seem likely that the Mets will reignite negotiations about Bryant now that Lindor has been acquired.  However, there is “increasing industry chatter” that Bryant could be traded somewhere “as soon as this weekend.”

JANUARY 7: With one blockbuster trade already in the books for the Mets, could another headline-grabbing swap be in the works?  The Mets and Cubs have had “recent trade talks” concerning a possible Kris Bryant deal, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The specific timing of these discussions isn’t known, and it could be possible that the Mets were only looking at Bryant as a fallback option if the Francisco Lindor trade didn’t happen.  Still, given how aggressive the Amazins have been in seeking out high-level talent this offseason, acquiring Bryant on top of Lindor, Carrasco,  Trevor May, James McCann, and any potential other additions can’t be ruled out.

Bryant is projected to earn $18.6MM in his final year of salary arbitration — like Lindor, Bryant is another high-salaried player who is a season away from free agency.  While Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer claimed that payroll considerations weren’t “the focus” of Chicago’s recent deal of Yu Darvish to the Padres, multiple reports have indicated that the Cubs are trying to cut salary, and that pretty much every expensive veteran of note is a potential trade candidate.

While the Cubs surely want a good return back for trading the former NL MVP, the Mets could have an edge in trade talks (at least in terms of the quality of prospects surrendered) simply by offering to take Bryant’s entire contract off of Chicago’s books.  Hypothetically, the Mets could also send an experienced Major League player back to the Cubs as part of a Bryant trade, akin to how the Cubs picked up Zach Davies from San Diego in the Darvish deal.

Moving an experienced player would help make Bryant a cleaner fit into New York’s everyday lineup, as the Mets have projected starters at each of his four potential positions — first base (Pete Alonso), third base (J.D. Davis), and the corner outfield spots (Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith).  It’s safe to assume that Conforto isn’t going anywhere, and the Mets aren’t likely to move Alonso and his four years of team control for just one year of Bryant.  Davis and Smith are more plausible trade candidates, particularly if the Mets were to also sign George Springer and create a further outfield surplus.  Signing Springer could also turn current center fielder Brandon Nimmo into a trade chip, but the Mets could probably like to hang onto Nimmo as a backup option up the middle.

Bryant’s trade value, of course, is further impacted by his underwhelming 2020 performance.  Hampered by multiple nagging injuries all year, Bryant appeared in only 34 of Chicago’s 60 games and hit .206/.293/.351 with four home runs in 147 PA.  That small sample size doesn’t and shouldn’t erase Bryant’s superstar numbers from 2015-19, but it certainly doesn’t help the Cubs in their attempt to get maximum value back for one year of Bryant’s services.

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