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Royals, Hunter Dozier In “Serious” Extension Negotiations

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The Royals and third baseman Hunter Dozier “are in serious talks” about a multi-year contract extension, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link).  Specific terms aren’t known, though Dozier has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining before reaching free agent status following the 2023 season.  Dozier is already set to earn $2.72MM in 2021 after reaching an arb-avoiding deal with K.C. back in December.

Selected eighth overall in the 2013 draft, Dozier enjoyed a breakout season in 2019, hitting .279/.348/.522 with 26 homers and a league-best 10 triples over 586 plate appearances.  That was followed up by a less-impressive 2020 (.228/.344/.392 over 186 PA) but with some obvious extenuating circumstances — not just the 2020 campaign’s smaller sample size, but Dozier also missed over two weeks at the start of the season due to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.  Dozier’s hard-contact numbers dropped off considerably from 2019 to 2020, though his walk rate also significantly improved.

It sets the stage for what could be an interesting set of extension talks, considering that 2020 wasn’t exactly a great platform year.  Dozier turned 29 last August, so he might have more incentive to lock in some long-term security now rather than bet on hitting a big payday on the open market entering his age-32 season.  It’s worth noting that L. Warner Companies Inc. (Dozier’s agency) also represents another prominent Royal in Whit Merrifield, who signed an extension with Kansas City just over two years ago, though Merrifield and Dozier aren’t really comps — Merrifield is 31 months older and was still entering his final pre-arb season when he inked his long-term deal.

There aren’t a ton of great recent comps for Dozier overall, in looking at recent extensions of players who had between three and four years of MLB service time.  The odd nature of the 2020 season adds another layer of difficulty in trying to predict what a Dozier extension could look like, since those past players didn’t have such an outlier of a year factoring into the situation.  The list of players who have signed an extension since the pandemic began consists only of unique mega-deals (i.e. Mookie Betts and Fernando Tatis Jr.), players who signed contracts only covering arbitration-eligible years, or Yuli Gurriel’s one-year extension with the Astros at the end of September.

Extensions have been a key plank of Dayton Moore’s team-building strategy since he became Kansas City’s GM in 2006.  After an offseason that saw the Royals make some notable moves in acquiring Andrew Benintendi and signing Carlos Santana and Mike Minor to two-year free agent deals, it’s clear that Moore and his front office are preparing to be competitive after four straight losing seasons.  It’s safe to assume that the Royals will explore long-term deals with multiple young building-block players as Spring Training rolls on, with such names as Adalberto Mondesi and Brad Keller standing out as possible extension candidates.  Kansas City could also look into locking up younger players who are even earlier in their careers (like Brady Singer or Kris Bubic), and veterans like Jorge Soler and franchise stalwart Salvador Perez are each just a year away from free agency.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/27/21

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The latest minor moves from around the sport…

  • The Athletics will bring right-hander Paul Blackburn back into their big league Spring Training camp after Blackburn cleared waivers.  (Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News was among those to report the news.)  Blackburn was designated for assignment earlier this week.  The grounder specialist has a 5.69 ERA over 99 2/3 innings in the majors, all since Oakland since the start of the 2017 season, and Blackburn’s usage has dipped over each of those four years — he appeared in just one game in 2020.  With a decent track record as a starter in the minors, however, Blackburn does provide the A’s with some rotation depth.

Astros Claim Robel Garcia

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The Astros have claimed infielder Robel Garcia off waivers, the Angels announced (Twitter link).  The Halos designated Garcia for assignment earlier this week.  Justin Verlander was placed on the Astros’ 60-day injured list to create roster space for Garcia, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets.

Garcia is no stranger to the waiver wire at this point, as he is now joining his fifth different organization since July.  Initially DFA’ed by the Cubs on July 23, Garcia was claimed and then subsequently designated by the Reds, Mets, and Angels, with Los Angeles just picking Garcia up at the start of February.

Is there a chance Garcia could finally stick in Houston?  He offers some versatility as a utility infielder (who has also spent some time in left field), though Almedys Diaz and Abraham Toro already provide a lot of multi-positional depth on the Astros’ bench.  Toro hasn’t yet shown much at the plate over 186 Major League plate appearances, however, so the Astros could see Garcia as a potential option if Toro is sent to Triple-A.

Garcia’s big league resume consists of 80 PA over 31 games with the Cubs in 2019, when he hit .208/.275/.500 with five home runs.  His unique minor league career included four years in the Indians’ farm system from 2010-13 before taking three years away from baseball and then resurfacing in the Italian Baseball League in 2017.  This led to a minors deal with the Cubs in 2019, and some very big numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels prior to his call-up.  Garcia doesn’t turn 28 years old until next month, so he presents some intrigue as a late-blooming power bat.

Red Sox Acquire Zach Bryant From Cubs

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The Red Sox have acquired right-hander Zach Bryant from the Cubs to finish the Josh Osich trade, per Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). The Red Sox sent Osich to the Cubs at the August 31st trade deadline last year for a player to be named later.

Bryant now heads to Boston to complete that deal. The Cubs didn’t ultimately get much out of this transaction. They designated Osich for assignment at the end of September when he struggled to a 10.13 ERA in four appearances. The southpaw signed a minor league deal with the Reds in December. For his career, he owns a 5.02 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, and 125 FIP- across 234 appearances totaling 206 1/3 innings with the Giants, White Sox, Red Sox, and Cubs. Osich is better as a lefty specialist, holding a 3.75 xFIP against lefties and a 4.99 xFIP against right-handed hitters.

The 22-year-old Bryant made his professional debut in 2019. The Cubs signed him for $125K as a 15th round draft choice out of Jacksonville University. He made it to Low-A posting a 1.27 ERA across 12 appearances at two levels, striking out 24 versus to eight walks over 21 1/3 innings.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Cardinals, Diamondbacks

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Teams in need of a left-handed hitting outfielder might want to check in with the Yankees about the availability of Mike Tauchman. Though the Yankees have four years of control remaining, there may simply not be room for him on the opening day roster, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. It’s not just the addition of Brett Gardner that could push Tauchman out of the picture, though that doesn’t help Tauchman’s case. He’s competing with Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich for that fifth outfielder role, and that veteran pair both bring the ability to play first base as well. That’s not on Tauchman’s resume. After a surprising .277/.361/.504 line over 296 plate appearances in 2019 turned the 30-year-old into a valuable member of the Yankee reserves, the power dissipated in 2020. His bat slipped from 28 percent better than average to 22 percent below by measure of wRC+. Mike Ford’s playing time could also be at risk, but the backup first baseman has two option years remaining, whereas Tauchman would have to pass through waivers.

  • Matt Carpenter is not conceding his spot in the everyday lineup just yet, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter won’t take many at-bats from Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado at the corners, and he’s competing with popular upstart Tommy Edman at the keystone, though Edman can play the outfield, too. Had the universal DH made its way to the league this season, Carpenter likely would have lined up for many of those at-bats. As is, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat out Edman at second, even if defense wasn’t a consideration. After being a 133 wRC+ hitter from 2012 to 2018, Carpenter fell to 95 wRC+ and 84 wRC+ the past two seasons. His batted ball profile has generally paralleled that trajectory, with exit velocity and hard hit percentage down in 2019 and 2020 from where he’d been previously.
  • The Diamondbacks are promoting a new assistant general manager, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Mike Fitzgerald was previously the analytics director, and he now joins Amiel Sawdaye as assistant GMs under Executive VP and GM Mike Hazen. Ross Seaton has also been promoted to director of pitching.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Yankees Rotation

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Jameson Taillon is aiming for 120 to 150 innings in his comeback from Tommy John surgery, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Taillon has just 37 1/3 innings to his name over the past two seasons, and since this will be his second time coming back from TJ, there’s reason to temper expectations regarding his workload. Davidoff looks at PECOTA, Steamer, and ZiPS to get an idea for what the projection systems think Taillon can handle in 2021 – though the creators of the systems admit this is an area that requires guesswork. Still, it’s instructive to know that the three systems project 103 innings, 133 innings, and 106 1/3 innings – in line with Taillon’s thinking.

How those innings manifest might be the question for the Yankees. The mean of the three projections is 114-ish innings, which would be just under four innings per start over a full 30-game workload. That’s not likely to be the shape of Taillon’s 2021 production. We know that depth will be key in 2021 across the league, but thinking in this way about Taillon all but erases the possibility of a five-man rotation surviving the season.

While that’s an absolute best-case, rarely-achieved feat in the first place, it’s worth keeping in mind before getting frustrated when Deivi García, for example, doesn’t make an opening day roster, speculatively speaking. And while Clarke Schmidt’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious, it serves as a generous reminder that the injury bug can bite at any time.

As if Taillon didn’t cloud the Yankees’ projections enough on his own, the rest of the group doesn’t bring much certainty either – beyond Gerrit Cole, of course. The projection systems collectively tag presumptive No. 2 starter Corey Kluber with an expectation for about 137 innings in 2021, a forecast largely born from the fact that the soon-to-be 35-year-old managed just one inning in 2020 and 35 2/3 innings the year before. Still, Kluber was a workhorse before 2019, with five straight 200+ inning seasons with the Indians.

Jordan Montgomery slots into the No. 4 spot, and he logged just 51 2/3 innings over the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery himself. Somewhat remarkably, the starter with the most innings after Cole the past two seasons is the guy who missed all of 2020 under the league’s domestic violence policy: Domingo Germán. Germán made 24 starts and amassed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP, 38.1 percent groundball rate, 25.8 percent strikeout rate, and 6.6 percent walk rate in 2019. Those are above-average walk and strikeout numbers. Germán faces his own uphill climb, of course. Given comments made by his Yankee teammates this offseason, there’s more than a little doubt about how well he’ll be able to re-acclimate to the spotlight that comes with donning Yankee pinstripes.

García will obviously be a candidate to join the rotation, as could other 40-man roster arms like Schmidt, Michael King, Nick Nelson, Alexander Vizcaino, Luis Medina, and Luis Gil. Veterans Jhoulys Chacin and Asher Wojciechowski are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jonathan Loaisiga, Albert Abreu and Luis Cessa are expected to pitch out the bullpen, but they’ve spent time starting games in the past. The Yankees also hope to receive a mid-season boost when Luis Severino returns from Tommy John. Severino threw just 12 innings the past two seasons, but he was an ace in the two years before that, averaging a 3.18 ERA/3.01 FIP, 5.5 fWAR in 192 innings per season in 2017 and 2018.

Of course, no matter the starting five, most teams are going to call upon more than just their opening day rotation to toe the rubber. The Yankees themselves used nine different starting pitchers in 2020 over just 60 games. They used 12 in 2019, 12 in 2018, and 11 in 2017. Those units finished eighth, fifth and fourth in the American League by measure of FIP, ninth, third and third by fWAR. Yankee starters ranked third in the AL by both FIP (4.19 FIP) and fWAR (5.3 fWAR) last season.

Volume isn’t everything, but for pitchers, inning totals do often point to success, or at the very least, health. Given the uncertainty of the Yankees new rotation, what are your expectations? Who of the starters after Cole stands the best chance of surviving the season?

(Poll link for app users)

(Poll link for app users)

COVID Notes: Carlos Carrasco, Kevin Plawecki

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A few notes from around the game regarding COVID-19…

  • Some good news on the COVID-19 front. Because of his medical history, Carlos Carrasco has received the COVID-19 vaccine, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (via Twitter). Carrasco’s recent history with leukemia put him at obvious risk, but he can continue his ramp up to opening day with at least a little greater sense of security. The medical testing did keep Carrasco from camp a little longer than some of the other arms, however, which will delay his Grapefruit League debut. It should not affect his ability to be ready for the start of the season, however, notes Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter).
  • Red Sox catcher Kevin Plawecki returned to the field today after previously being on the COVID-19 injured list, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). If healthy, Plawecki should have the inside track on backing up Christian Vasquez for the Red Sox this season. A former first round pick of the Mets, Plawecki appeared in 24 games and slashed .341/.393/.463 across 89 plate appearances during his first season with Boston in 2020.
  • Kyle Ryan has been cleared to return to the Cubs, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Ryan is still technically in the protocols for COVID-19, but he has been cleared to return to the team.

Giants, Scott Kazmir Agree To Minor League Deal

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FEB 27: Kazmir’s deal is official and he will report to spring training, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter).

FEB 23: Comeback season is upon us, it seems. The Giants have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Scott Kazmir, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. He’ll be invited to Major League Spring Training. Kazmir will earn a $600K base salary if he makes the Giants, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. His deal doesn’t include any opt-out dates.

It’s been nearly five years since Kazmir, now 37, pitched in the Majors with the Dodgers. Current San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was serving as general manager under president Andrew Friedman in Los Angeles at that point, and he was also an assistant GM in the Athletics’ front office in 2013 when Oakland inked Kazmir to a two-year deal.

There’s some obvious history between Zaidi and Kazmir, who at one point was one of the game’s brightest young starters. Kazmir broke out with the Rays in 2005, drawing Rookie of the Year votes that season and going on to make a pair of All-Star teams with Tampa Bay, where he posted a 3.51 ERA and a 25.1 percent strikeout rate from 2005-2008 (back when the league-average strikeout percentage was just 17 percent).

Injuries looked to have derailed Kazmir’s career after a disastrous stint with the Angels. He recorded just five outs in the Majors from 2011-12 and looked to be in danger of washing out entirely before even celebrating his 30th birthday. But Kazmir parlayed a minor league deal with the Indians — not unlike the one he’s now signing with the Giants — into a strong rebound campaign in 2013. He rewarded the A’s with an All-Star season in ’14 and a strong first half in ’15 before being traded to the Astros. Injuries again waylaid Kazmir in the second and third seasons of his three-year pact with the Dodgers, and he hasn’t been on a big league mound since Sept. 2016.

Overall, Kazmir owns a lifetime 4.01 ERA that, remarkably, is an exact match with both his FIP and his SIERA. He’s fanned 22.2 percent of his opponents at the MLB level against a 9.4 percent walk rate. Those numbers come across as that of a third or fourth starter, but Kazmir has shown on multiple occasions that when he’s at his best, he’s a good deal better than that.

Whether he has anything left in the tank remains to be seen, but Olney notes that Kazmir hit 92-93 mph in recent bullpen sessions. He’s never been a particularly hard thrower, so that velocity aligns nicely with Kazmir’s peak years. Even during his All-Star campaigns in 2006, 2008 and 2014, Kazmir averaged just north of 91 mph on his heater.

There’s no harm in the Giants taking a look this spring to see if Kazmir has another rebound in him — even if this comeback seems all the more improbable given his age and his considerably longer layoff from pitching in the Majors. He’ll add another intriguing, high-upside arm to a Giants staff that has rolled the dice on Aaron Sanchez, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani on Major League deals.

Injury Notes: Naughton, Schmidt, Thorpe

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Angels prospect Packy Naughton has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 UCL sprain in his elbow, per Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (via Twitter). Naughton is ranked 19th among prospects in the Angels’ system per Baseball America and 12th per MLB.com. Naughton joined the Angels at last year’s trade deadline from the Cincinnati Reds as part of the return for outfielder Brian Goodwin. He had been the Reds’ 20th-ranked prospect per Fangraphs’ mid-season report. Naughton will likely be shut down for a time, though he season would not be in jeopardy, given that a Grade 1 strain suggests there’s no tear in the elbow ligament. Still, any injury to the UCL raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, though jumping to that point would be premature at this time. It’s certainly an inopportune time for the 24-year-old. He wasn’t expected to compete for a rotation job, but he was likely ticketed for the Triple-A rotation, and therefore not too far down the line in terms of depth options for the Angels.

  • In brighter news, Clarke Schmidt says he has “relieved” his elbow injury and he expects to be back in action soon, per Erik Boland of Newsday Sports (via Twitter). The 25-year-old made his Major League debut for the Yankees, albeit in just a 6 1/3 inning sample. Regardless, he is competing this spring for his place in the line behind the Yankees’ top five starters. Having made just three starts in Double-A to round out 2019, Schmidt undoubtedly would have spent 2020 in Triple-A, had there been a minor league season. As is, he’ll be in camp with other young arms like Deivi Garcia, Michael King, Luis Medina, and Nick Nelson, trying to prove themselves ready to step-in for a particularly injury-prone New York rotation. Schmidt was shut down just over a week ago for what was supposed to be 3-4 weeks, though it’s possible he returns to action sooner.
  • After a difficult and vague leave of absence last spring, Twins’ southpaw Lewis Thorpe is healthy, back in camp, and in a better place mentally, writes the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Said manager Rocco Baldelli, “I think the sky’s the limit for him. I think he’s a major-league starting pitcher that could definitely establish himself, at some point, hopefully in the very near future, and a guy that can throw a lot of innings. He’s got a very vast arsenal. He can do a lot of things with the baseball.” The Melbourne native has long been a guy with the tools to be a successful starter. Despite a 6.14 ERA/4.77 FIP across 44 big-league innings in 2019 and 2020, Thorpe is worth keeping an eye on. ZiPS is the most bullish of the projection systems, forecasting 106 innings and 1.1 fWAR at the Major League level. If nothing else, with injury concern baked in the back 60 percent of the Twins rotation (Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker), there is some room for some surprise production from someone in the Twins system.

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