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Archives for December 2021

Blue Jays, Mets Among Teams Interested In Yusei Kikuchi

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6:20 PM: Though he doesn’t have specifics on offers made by the Mets and Jays, Heyman further reports that Kikuchi has multiple three-year offers on the table. Whether those offers are from either Toronto or New York — or whether he signs before the near-certain lockout in a few hours — remains to be seen.

9:58 AM: The starting pitching market has been red hot of late as teams have been trying to bolster their rotations before the current CBA expires tonight, which is widely expected to lead to a lockout and transaction freeze. One intriguing name that remains available is Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty has attracted the attention of the Blue Jays, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, as well as the Mets, per Andy Martino of SNY.

Kikuchi, 30, is one of the more difficult pitchers to value on the market. After a dominant run in Japan’s NPB over eight seasons, Kikuchi was signed by the Mariners but struggled in his first MLB season in 2019. In 161 2/3 innings that year, his ERA was 5.46, along with a ground ball rate of 44% and meager strikeout rate of 16.1%. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he dropped his ERA only slightly, to 5.17. However, his strikeout rate jumped to 24.2% and his groundball rate to 52%, perhaps indicating that better results were ahead.

For the first few months of 2021, Kikuchi seemed to hit his stride. By July, he was pitching so well that it seemed the Mariners had a tough decision on their hands, as explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams. At that time, Kikuchi had an ERA of 3.18, strikeout rate of 25.4% and 53.8% grounder rate. It started to seem possible that the club could trigger a four-year option over Kikuchi, that would pay him $66MM for the 2022-2025 seasons. However, Kikuchi faded down the stretch, posting a 6.22 ERA, 23.3 strikeout rate and 10.3 BB% from July 7th onward, getting bumped from the rotation before the season ended. In the end, the Mariners passed on their option, leaving Kikuchi to decide whether or not to trigger a $13MM player option for the 2022 season. Despite his sluggish finish this year, he decided to leave that money on the table and test free agency. MLBTR ranked him 34th among this year’s free agents, predicting a contract of $20MM over two years.

The Blue Jays’ rotation took a couple of hits in recent weeks, as Robbie Ray and Steven Matz departed for the Mariners and Cardinals, respectively. However, they mitigated the damage somewhat by signing Kevin Gausman to slot in next to Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alek Manoah. Although they have options for the fifth slot, such as Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson and Thomas Hatch, Stripling has often been used as a swingman out of the bullpen, while Pearson and Hatch are still young and dealt with injuries in 2021. Adding Kikuchi could bump those options to the bullpen or the minors and improve the overall depth of the staff.

The Mets have been one of the most active teams in free agency lately, going on a spending spree that included the pickups of Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. That has pushed the team’s 2022 payroll to a massive $263MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Prior to Steve Cohen purchasing the team a year ago, the franchise record payroll was $158MM in 2019. To sign Kikuchi, they would likely have to continue pushing their budget to new record-breaking levels. If they are willing to do so, Kikuchi would add an extra safety net to a rotation that is high on talent but which also has injury concerns, as Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco both missed significant time in 2021. Scherzer, deGrom, Carrasco and Taijuan Walker would take up four rotation spots, if healthy, with younger options like Tylor Megill and David Peterson on hand as likely candidates for the backend.

Royals Sign Taylor Clarke To Major League Deal

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The Royals have signed right-hander Taylor Clarke to a major league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s a $975K deal, per Heyman. Clarke was non-tendered last night by the D-Backs.

The 28-year-old Clarke spent the bulk of last season pitching out of the Arizona bullpen to mostly pedestrian results. Through 43 innings the right-hander sported a 4.98 ERA with below average strikeout and groundball rates. Some of Clarke’s underlying stats may portend a turnaround at the Major League level, however. Among them, a .350 BABIP was well above the league average, indicating some poor batted ball luck. Clarke’s FIP too stood at just 3.54, indicating his bottom-line results may slide closer to respectability with more reps.

For just a 6-digit investment the Royals have little to lose by taking a chance on Clarke. In fact, if the right-hander proves to be anything close to a league average arm this deal stands a strong chance of looking quite shrewd. After all, Clarke is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration and can be a long-term option for a Royals club that’s angling to hop back into contention.

Twins Sign Dylan Bundy

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The Twins announced they’ve signed starter Dylan Bundy to a one-year deal with a club option for 2023. The BBI Sports Group client will reportedly be guaranteed $5MM, taking the form of a $4MM salary in 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on the $11MM option.

Bundy profiles as a buy-low option for a Minnesota club that needs to significantly overhaul its rotation this winter. The former top prospect had settled in as an up-and-down but capable starter with the Orioles over his first few seasons before seemingly realizing his long-awaited breakout in 2020. Acquired by the Angels over the previous offseason, Bundy worked 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball with a strong 27% strikeout rate during the truncated season.

Entering 2021, Bundy looked to be one of the more appealing arms in this winter’s free agent class. Few players’ stocks were dealt a more significant hit over the intervening months, though, as the right-hander struggled with both underperformance and injury. Bundy pitched to a 6.78 ERA over the season’s first three months, eventually being relegated to the bullpen.

His strikeout percentage dropped six points prior to his bullpen conversion, while he allowed an alarming 2.1 homers per nine innings pitched. That was in line with issues keeping the ball in the yard he’d experienced in Baltimore, a significant turnaround from the 0.69 HR/9 he posted during his first season in Orange County.

The move to the bullpen didn’t work as intended, as the Oklahoma native continued to struggle in shorter stints. Making matters worse, he hit the injured list with a shoulder strain in late August. While he’d initially expressed hope regarding a potential return, that proved impossible. Ultimately, Bundy hit free agency for the first time coming off a career-worst 6.06 ERA and an extended absence due to an arm injury.

There’s no doubt the 2021 campaign was a “Murphy’s law” type season. Yet Bundy’s only a year removed from looking like at least a mid-rotation caliber arm, and there’s not a whole lot of financial risk for the Twins in hoping for a bounceback. With Kenta Maeda likely to miss much of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Twins have very little stability in the starting staff. Bailey Ober looks likely to have one spot after a quietly strong 2021 campaign, while rookie Joe Ryan pitched well down the stretch. There’s still plenty of need for more reliability in that group moving forward, and it’s likely president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and the rest of the front office will continue to scour the free agent and trade markets for starting pitching help.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Sign Luis Garcia

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The Padres have announced agreement with free agent reliever Luis García on a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $7MM guarantee.

The multi-year deal is a nice pull for García, who entered the 2021 campaign as a non-roster invitee with the Yankees. After failing to crack New York’s season-opening roster, he spent the first couple months of the season in Triple-A. García triggered an opt-out clause in that deal and landed a big league roster spot with the Cardinals in July.

The 34-year-old (35 in January) made the most of his half-season in St. Louis. He worked 33 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball across 34 outings, earning his way into higher-leverage work by September. García fanned a slightly above-average 25.2% of opposing hitters while walking only 5.9% of batters faced. That was handily the best control he’s ever shown, as García typically walked batters at a higher than average rate during his time as an inconsistent middle innings option with the Phillies earlier in his career.

Even more impressive than his bottom line results were his pitch-by-pitch numbers. García generated swinging strikes on 14.9% of his offerings, a mark that’s more than three percentage points above the 11.7% league average for relievers. That’s largely on the strength of his slider, which opponents rather comically missed more than half the time they offered at it. That was his primary complement against right-handed hitters to a sinker that averaged greater than 98 MPH, while he also found plenty of success mixing in a split against lefty batters.

It remains to be seen whether García can sustain his half-season success moving forward — particularly the seeming strides he made with his control. It’s a fairly inexpensive gamble on a live arm for the Friars, with García having the opportunity to cement himself into the club’s late-innings mix. With previous closer Mark Melancon departing to join the division-rival Diamondbacks, Pierce Johnson, Tim Hill, Emilio Pagán and Austin Adams look to be the other top options for new skipper Bob Melvin.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported the agreement and its terms shortly before the official announcement.

Diamondbacks Sign Mark Melancon

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The Diamondbacks have added a proven closer to their murky bullpen mix, signing reliever Mark Melancon to a two-year contract with a $14MM guarantee. The ISE Baseball client will receive a salary of $6MM in both 2022 and 2023. The deal also comes with a $5MM mutual option for 2024, which includes a $2MM buyout.

Melancon is coming off his seventh career sub-3.00 ERA season — his second in as many years. After signing with the Padres for a comparatively paltry one year and $3MM shortly before the start of 2021 Spring Training, the four-time All-Star led the big leagues in saves for the second time in his career, notching 39 in 64 appearances.

Though something of a journeyman — and hardly a flamethrower by today’s standards — Melancon has established himself as one of the game’s most consistently effective relievers. Across a 13-year career with the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Pirates, Nationals, Giants, Braves, and Padres, Melancon has covered 670 2/3 innings with a sparkling 2.79 ERA (2.94 FIP). His 244 saves ranked fourth among active players, behind only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman.

Unusually unreliant on the strikeout for a closer (his 22.6% strikeout rate barely exceeds the major league average of 20.6%), Melancon relies on an elevated ground ball rate (56.4%; league average is 43.8%) to limit the longball; indeed, his home run rate of 1.4% is less than half the 2.9% big-league average. Though now entering his age-37 season, these trends have shown no signs of decline; since 2019, Melancon’s GB% and HR% are 58.7% and 1.4%, respectively — right in line with his career numbers.

Though he hasn’t had a poor season since at least 2012, when he posted a 6.20 ERA (4.58 FIP) in Boston, Melancon has experienced something of a late-career resurgence. From 2013 to 2016, he put together 290 innings of 1.80 ERA ball — good for an eye-popping 213 ERA+ — to go along with 147 saves for the Pirates and Nationals, including a majors-leading 51 for Pittsburgh in 2015. He turned those numbers into a four-year, $62MM pact with the Giants after the 2016 season, though a blood flow issue limited his availability and effectiveness. In 115 1/3 innings in San Francisco, Melancon compiled a still-solid 3.67 ERA (3.32 FIP) before heading to Atlanta in a deadline-day trade in 2019. He’s since pitched 108 1/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball between the Braves and Padres.

The move to Phoenix represents something of a homecoming for Melancon, who played college ball at the University of Arizona in Tucson. The move is at least a bit surprising, though, as D-backs GM Mike Hazen had frankly admitted the club is unlikely to in contend 2022. Coming off an NL-worst 52-110 record in 2021, Arizona looks at least a few years from contention, even as several of their top players (Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen, Carson Kelly) are under team control for several years to come.

Arizona will hope that Melancon can stabilize a bullpen in need of a few more arms but with several serviceable pieces. Caleb Smith, Noe Ramirez, and J.B. Wendelken will return after solid years, and 23-year-old Luis Frias will look to build on a promising debut in 2021. Few other relievers were able to string multiple solid outings together, however, as the club finished third from the bottom with a 5.08 ERA on the year — ahead of only the Nationals and Orioles.

The Diamondbacks may not contend in 2022, but Hazen’s decision to give real (if comparatively modest) money to Melancon could signal that he’s sincere in his stated preference to hold onto his best young players. Marte in particular would return a king’s ransom, but Arizona does have a top-10 farm system (No. 9, per MLB Pipeline) that includes three top-50 prospects in Jordan Lawlar, Corbin Carroll, and Alek Thomas (though only Thomas is close to big-league-ready).

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Melancon’s $6MM 2022 salary will put the D-backs just north of $55MM in salary commitments for 2022 (excluding salaries for players eligible for arbitration), a big step down from last year’s roughly $96MM number. Hazen’s comments likely signal that the club intends to remain below that number, but he will like have space to continue to add should he choose to do so.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was the first to report the signing; Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the guaranteed money; and Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic tweeted Melancon’s annual salaries and the terms of his option. 

 

Bullpen Notes: Rodriguez, Peralta, Strickland, Shaw, Marlins

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Right-hander Richard Rodriguez was one of the more prominent names cut loose before last night’s non-tender deadline, and now that the Braves have parted ways with the reliever, Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link) that the Pirates are interested in bringing Rodriguez back to the Steel City.  Rodriguez posted strong numbers throughout his three-plus seasons in the Pirates’ bullpen, which made him a hot commodity heading into the July trade deadline.  While Rodriguez’s peripherals didn’t back up his excellent on-field performance to begin this season, the Bucs were still able to move him to Atlanta for two young arms on July 30.

The righty still managed a 3.12 ERA during his 26 innings for the Braves, but Rodriguez’s home run rate skyrocketed and his strikeout rate dropped off the map to only 8.5%.  Atlanta didn’t use Rodriguez during the playoffs, and non-tendered him rather than pay a projected $3.1MM arbitration salary.  On paper, it would seem like a reunion between Rodriguez and the Pirates would work out well for both sides, as the Bucs would gain some more relief depth, and Rodriguez would try to get himself on track in a familiar environment.

More from the relief pitching market…

  • The Diamondbacks just made a splash in the relief market by signing Mark Melancon, but the club has also “at least checked on” such arms as Wily Peralta, Bryan Shaw, and Hunter Strickland, according to The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link).  All three right-handers had pretty decent bottom-line numbers in 2021, though the advanced metrics weren’t as impressed by their work.  Nonetheless, any could provide some help to an Arizona bullpen that badly struggled last season, and Peralta could factor into the rotation mix after starting 18 of his 19 games with the Tigers.  Shaw began his career with the D’Backs as a second-round pick for the team back in 2008, and he pitched his first two MLB seasons in a Diamondbacks uniform.
  • While the Marlins have been busy with some notable lineup additions, the club hasn’t yet done much to their relief corps.  GM Kim Ng told reporters (including The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish) that the bullpen market has been a bit slower in general, but now that the Marlins have finished some of the heavy lifting with their hitting upgrades, the pen will get more focus.  Miami’s pen posted some pretty solid numbers in 2021, and the front office has already made one move by acquiring right-hander Louis Head in a trade with the Rays.

Royals Sign JaCoby Jones To Minors Deal

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The Royals have signed outfielder JaCoby Jones to a minor league deal, announcing the move via Twitter. The club also officially announced the re-signing of lefty Richard Lovelady, which had been reported earlier today.

Jones, who had spent his entire career with the Tigers, elected free agency at the end of the regular season. After agreeing to a one-year, $2.65MM contract before the season, Jones got off to a dismal start, posting a meager .170/.210/.250 batting line over 105 plate appearances. He was optioned to Triple-A Toledo in May and was designated for assignment in June.

A high-end athlete and solid defender (he posted 20 defensive runs saved between center and left in 2018, though he followed that up with -14 in 2019), Jones has struggled to establish himself at the plate. Across parts of six seasons, he compiled a .212/.275/.371 triple-slash in 1,195 trips to the plate. His best season came in 2020, when he put up a .268/.333/.515 line (good for a 129 OPS+), albeit in only 30 games. Though he’s shown decent power, he’s struck out at a 32.6% clip for his career (roughly ten points above the big-league average) while walking in only 6% of his trips to the plate.

The former LSU Tiger, who is entering his age-30 season, will look for a fresh start with the Royals, who have a likely quartet of rotating likely outfield starters (Andrew Benintendi, Michael A. Taylor, Hunter Dozier, and Kyle Isbel) in place but will be looking for depth. Barring an injury to any of those four, he’ll likely compete with the left-handed Ryan O’Hearn for a bench spot.

Phillies Sign Corey Knebel

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The Phillies announced the signing of reliever Corey Knebel to a one-year contract this afternoon. It’s reportedly a $10MM guarantee. Knebel is represented by Excel Sports Management.

The bullpen has been a major weak spot for the Phillies in each of the last two seasons, and Knebel now provides some much-needed late-game help for the club, potentially even in the closer role.  Knebel has previous experience as the Brewers’ closer (including a 39-save, All-Star season in 2017) before injuries derailed his career.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is very familiar with Knebel, as back when Dombrowski was running the Tigers front office, Detroit selected Knebel 39th overall in the 2013 draft.  Knebel began his MLB career in a Tigers uniform, but after a pair of trades from Detroit to Texas to Milwaukee, he emerged as a very intriguing arm out of the Brew Crew’s bullpen.

Knebel underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2019 and returned to toss only 13 1/3 innings of rather shaky 6.08 ERA ball, though such struggles aren’t uncommon for a pitcher returning from such a layoff.  The Brewers opted to trade Knebel to the Dodgers rather than face the question of whether or not to tender him a contract in his final arbitration-eligible year, and to some extent, Milwaukee’s concerns were realized, as Knebel ended up missing almost four months of the 2021 campaign due to a right lat strain.

When he did pitch, however, Knebel looked much closer to his old form.  He posted a 2.45 ERA over 25 2/3 innings, with a 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate and dominant numbers against both right-handed and left-handed batters.  Velocity-wise, Knebel’s heater was back up to 96.4mph —- still a tick below his 97.4mph career high in 2017, but a nice step up from the 94.4mph velo he showed in 2020.  Knebel’s fastball spin rate also rebounded from 2020, and he posted a career-best spin rate on his curveball that topped his already-strong past numbers.

The contract is a nice late birthday present for Knebel, who turned 30 years old last week.  While he has already had a lot of ups and downs in his career, that age is a reminder that Knebel is still in his veritable prime, and might resume his status as a frontline relief arm if he is able to stay healthy.  The one-year contract may be a nod to both his lengthy injury history, and perhaps Knebel’s own desire to showcase himself in advance of a larger multi-year commitment next winter.  MLBTR projected Knebel for a two-year, $18MM pact, and he sat 38th on our ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

Knebel is by far the biggest of the Phillies’ bullpen adds this winter, topping a list that includes Ryan Sherriff, Nick Nelson, Yoan Lopez, Kent Emanuel, and Scott Moss.  The relief corps also took a hit when former closer Hector Neris departed to sign a free agent deal with the Astros.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Phillies and Knebel were in agreement. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported the sides were “in advanced talks” this morning. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first with contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

No More Negotiations Scheduled Between Owners, Players Prior To CBA Expiration

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2:04PM: This afternoon’s session between the two sides concluded after seven minutes, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links).  There won’t be any more negotiations today, and the lockout is expected to begin this evening once the current CBA officially expires.

12:46PM: Negotiators from Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association continue to meet this afternoon, though there is still an expectation that the league will commence with a lockout as soon as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at 10:59 CT tonight.  Several reports have suggested that the two sides are far enough on several core issues that there is virtually no chance that an actual deal could be reached prior to the deadline, yet that doesn’t mean progress couldn’t still be made as the baseball world enters a work stoppage and a transactions freeze.

In response to the league’s most recent proposal of a 14-team playoff field, the MLBPA has responded with a new proposal of its own, according to ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers.  The union’s latest offer would increase the playoff field to 10 to 12 teams, and also involve a huge overhaul of the current three-division alignment in the AL and NL.  Under this new idea, each league would have 15 teams split into two divisions — one with seven teams and one with eight teams —  and six AL and NL clubs apiece heading to the postseason.

The union’s proposal also included such notable details as advertising patches to be worn on jerseys, and more big-picture changes to baseball’s revenue-sharing system, the free agent system, and the arbitration process.  As well, the MLBPA are looking for a substantial increase in the luxury tax threshold, up to $240MM from the 2021 threshold of $210MM.

Looking at these last two proposals between the two sides, there does appear to be some room for common ground on at least a couple of fronts, even if many of the larger issues remain harder to solve.  For instance, it would seem like the postseason will probably end up being expanded in some form, with the specific size to be determined.  Also, while one of management’s proposals back in August involved lowering the luxury tax threshold to $180MM and installing a salary floor of $100MM, that idea seems to have been scrapped, based on natural resistance from the union.  As per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, MLB’s last proposal involved the idea of the luxury tax line once again being raised by a slight extent, though it wasn’t clear if the threshold would continue to be increased on an annual basis (as in the current CBA).

Therefore, it seems reasonable to speculate that the next CBA will include an elevated luxury tax threshold of some kind, even if the $30MM jump desired by the union doesn’t happen.  Left unknown, of course, is what types of penalties will be faced by teams that exceed the tax threshold, as the current system penalty system (an increasingly surchage on the overage and, at maximum, a drop in the draft order and international draft pool subtractions) have already proven to be deterrents to a large portion of baseball’s teams.  The MLBPA, of course, would want to see lesser or even no penalties at all in order to create more incentive for teams to spend on roster upgrades.

“When you look at how the 2016 CBA agreement and how that has worked over the past five years, as players, we see major problems in it,” Max Scherzer told The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes (Twitter links) and other reporters.  “Specifically, first and foremost, we see a competition problem and how teams are behaving because of certain rules that are within that. Adjustments have to be made to bring up the competition.  As players, that’s critical to us to have a highly competitive league, and when we don’t have that, we have issues.”

Front Office/Coaching Notes: Astros, Brewers, Padres, Reds

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Some recent front office and coaching moves around baseball…

  • Sara Goodrum, believed to be the first woman in Major League history to hold the role of minor league hitting coordinator, will leave the Brewers to become the Astros’ director of player development, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy.  She’ll follow a pair of path-breaking women — Marlins GM Kim Ng and Orioles director of baseball development Eve Rosenbaum — who’ve been hired to prominent front office roles. While her elevation to her new role represents another in a series of major steps forward for women in Major League Baseball, Goodrum is also one of several other women employed by teams in coaching roles in recent years.
  • The Padres have hired longtime big-league catcher Francisco Cervelli as their new catching instructor.  The thirty-five-year-old Cervelli, who posted a solid .268/.358/.382 batting line across parts of thirteen seasons with the Yankees, Pirates, Braves, and Marlins, will take over for Rod Barajas. Barajas, also a former catcher, had been in the Padres organization since 2014, amassing a 1-7 record as interim Padres manager for the last eight games of 2019, following the firing of Andy Green.  A veteran of 13 big league seasons, Cervelli will now be overseeing a crowded catching situation in San Diego.  The Padres acquired backstop Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins Tuesday to supplement a group headed by incumbents Austin Nola and Victor Caratini.
  • The Reds announced a series of coaching changes Monday.  Former Astros farmhand Rolando Valles has been promoted from major league associate coach to major league assistant coach.  Kyle Arnsberg, the game-planning coach for Double-A Chattanooga, was also promoted to an assistant coach role on the MLB staff.  Former Vanderbilt infielder Joel McKeithan has been named a major league assistant hitting coach and offensive coordinator.  Bullpen catcher Nate Irving has taken over Arnsberg’s old role in Chattanooga, where he’ll also serve as the bench coach.

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