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Blue Jays To Issue Qualifying Offers To Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray; Steven Matz Will Not Receive QO

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As expected, the Blue Jays will issue qualifying offers to Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links).  The Jays opted against issuing the QO to Steven Matz, however, and Heyman adds that Matz also recently turned down a multi-year contract offer from Toronto.

There was no doubt Semien and Ray would receive qualifying offers, as two of the top members of the 2021-22 free agent class.  Semien and Ray will also surely reject the qualifying offer (a one-year, $18.4MM deal) and look to land pricey longer-term contracts on the open market.  Toronto has interest in re-signing both players, but if Semien and/or Ray sign elsewhere after turning down the QO, the Jays will now receive compensatory draft picks.

Matz was an interesting borderline QO case, and the Blue Jays front office was reportedly weighing the idea of extending the offer to the left-hander.  Unlike the other two Toronto free agents, Matz might have been a candidate to accept, even though he has posted very solid numbers in three of his last four seasons (excepting an injury-plagued down year in 2020).  Matz doesn’t quite have the established track record to ensure that he would be a lock for a big multi-year contract on the open market, and thus might have preferred to take that one-year, $18.4MM guarantee now and then test free agency again next year.

However, it seems the Blue Jays might have felt $18.4MM was too much to spend for one season of Matz, even if the Jays are expected to spend more in payroll next year.  This doesn’t mean a reunion between Matz and the Jays isn’t possible, except Toronto will now have to compete with other suitors to lock down Matz’s services.  With free agency officially opening on Monday, Matz is surely interested in hearing from those other suitors, so it isn’t surprising that he rejected the Jays’ last-minute contract offer.

Mets Extend Qualifying Offers To Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard

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The Mets announced that they have issued qualifying offers to outfielder Michael Conforto and right-hander Noah Syndergaard.  The two players have until November 17 to decide if they will accept the one-year, $18.4MM offer, or if either will reject the offer and test free agency.

It was already expected that Conforto would receive a QO, though there wasn’t as much clarity on Syndergaard, considering the righty has missed virtually all of the last two seasons.  Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020 and then his return was further delayed by elbow inflammation, before he got back in time to pitch two innings over two games late in the Mets’ 2021 campaign.

Before the TJ surgery, however, Syndergaard had exhibited some front-of-the-rotation stuff over his first five seasons with New York.  The peak was a 2016 season that saw “Thor” earn an All-Star nod and finish eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting, though over 716 innings from 2015-19, Syndergaard posted a 3.31 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and a 20.7% K/BB rate.

If Syndergaard is able to deliver close to those types of numbers when healthy in 2022, that is certainly worth an $18.4MM payday.  With this in mind, the Mets clearly felt comfortable issuing the QO to Syndergaard knowing that he very well could accept the one-year deal now, and re-enter free agency next winter in search of a longer-term contract (and an actual platform year on his resume).  Syndergaard returning to the fold would go a long ways towards bolstering a Mets rotation that might lose Marcus Stroman to free agency, plus Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury-plagued seasons of their own.

New York is now also eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick if Syndergaard rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, and that possibility can’t be ruled out.  Another team might feel Syndergaard is worth some kind of multi-year commitment right now, or possibly a multi-year deal that contains an opt-out clause after a year so Syndergaard could end up re-entering the 2022-23 free agent class after all.

Conforto seemed like a surefire bet to receive a qualifying offer prior to the 2021 campaign, yet some doubts were raised when the outfielder struggled for a big portion of the season.  A strained right hamstring cost Comforto over a month on the injured list, and he hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances — a large step back from his .259/.358/.484 slash line over his first six seasons.

Looking at the advanced metrics, there isn’t any clear reason behind Conforto’s dropoff, apart from an increase in his groundball rate (a career-high 44.7%), which combined with a .276 BABIP could have resulted in just some bad batted-ball luck.  Apart from that one stat, however, many of Conforto’s 2021 metrics were pretty close or even better than his career rates.

It would seem like Conforto might also be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer, if he wished to enter free agency on the heels of a better platform year come next winter.  However, reports suggest that Conforto will likely reject the QO and test the market this season.  It stands to reason that multiple teams will still have interest in giving Conforto a nice multi-year contract (especially since 2022 will only be his age-29 season), though it will be interesting to see just how big a deal he lands in the wake of his somewhat average 2021 numbers.

Yency Almonte Elects Free Agency

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Yency Almonte has opted to become a free agent, the right-hander announced himself via Twitter.  The Rockies outrighted Almonte off their 40-man roster back on October 21, but Almonte had enough minor league service time to decide whether or not to decline the assignment and enter into free agency.

Originally joining the Rockies in the Tommy Kahnle trade with the White Sox in November 2015, Almonte has pitched in the last four MLB seasons, with inconsistent results.  When Almonte has been able to keep the ball on the ground at an above-average rate, he has been good, as evidenced by his solid results in 2017 and 2019.  When he hasn’t been able to keep the grounders coming, Almonte has been prone to allowing home runs, thus resulting in a 5.56 ERA in 2019 and a 7.55 ERA last season.  The righty’s walk totals also spiked upwards this year, adding to Almonte’s struggles.

Overall, the 27-year-old Almonte has a 5.30 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate over his 124 career innings in the majors.  Getting away from the thin air of Denver could be a boon, as Almonte has pretty pronounced home/away splits — a 6.46 ERA in 71 innings at Coors Field, and a 3.74 ERA in road games.

Astros Offer Carlos Correa Five-Year, $160MM Contract

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When the Astros and Carlos Correa talked contract extension last spring, the shortstop said the Astros made him offers of six years and $120MM, and then five years and $125MM.  While Correa is just hours away from the free agent market, the Astros are still trying to retain his services, and Mark Berman of FOX 26 (Twitter link) reports that the club’s last offer is a five-year deal worth $160MM.

This would be the largest contract Houston has ever given a player, topping the team’s five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve.  The offer’s $32MM average annual value would also be the 10th-highest AAV of any contract in baseball history, making it a pretty significant commitment on the Astros’ part.

However, it is also drastically below what Correa is likely to receive on the open market.  Correa is only entering his age-27 season, and he has already indicated that he’ll be looking for a pact in the nine- or ten-year range.  It isn’t out of the question that Correa might even hit $32MM (or at least come close) in average annual value on such a long-term deal, so it doesn’t seem like Houston’s offer is going to inspire a late-minute change of mind on Correa’s part.

In fact, there is enough of a gap between the Astros’ offer and Correa’s asking price that it’s probably safe to assume the team didn’t have much expectation of Correa actually accepting the deal.  There could be some public relations logistics at play, since the team can now present that $32MM AAV as a “we tried” gesture to fans upset over Correa’s departure.

However, the offer could also be interpreted as something of a public sign to other free agents about what the Astros are willing to spend on a top-tier free agent, if not Correa himself.  The Astros haven’t gone beyond a five-year contract with any player during Jim Crane’s ownership of the team, and while Crane recently said “things could change” in that regard, it is possible they might be willing to only go as high as six years, judging by their initial offer to Correa.  Houston does appear to be willing to make up for the lack of contractual length with higher average annual salaries, which could be of interest to other players.  A free agent who is already past age 30, for instance, probably isn’t counting on a contract beyond five or six guaranteed years, and thus might be keen on a relatively shorter-term deal that promises a higher AAV.

Braves Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Braves announced a series of roster transactions, including the news that Josh Tomlin’s 2022 club option has been declined.  Left-hander Grant Dayton has been released, and outfielder Terrance Gore has been outrighted to Triple-A.  Joining the 40-man roster are outfielder Travis Demeritte and right-hander Alan Rangel, whose contracts were selected from Triple-A.  Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka were also reinstated from the 60-day injured list as procedural moves.

Tomlin has spent the last three years with Atlanta, signing a pair of minor league contracts for the 2019 and 2020 seasons and then inking a one-year Major League deal last winter that paid him $1.25MM in guaranteed salary.  That money took the form of a $1MM salary for the season and then a $250K buyout of the team’s $1.25MM club option for the 2022 campaign.  The Braves therefore had a $1MM decision to make on Tomlin, and opted to not bring Tomlin back after a rough season for the 37-year-old.

Tomlin posted a 6.57 ERA over 49 1/3 relief innings last year, and was the victim of some bad luck — an ungainly .358 BABIP and a .346 xwOBA was well below his .377 wOBA.  That said, even his xwOBA was only in the 15th percentile of all pitchers, and Tomlin allowed more than his usual amount of hard contact.  With a very low strikeout rate and whiff rate, this lack of missed bats caught up to Tomlin in a big way.  On the plus side, Tomlin still delivered his usual excellent walk rate and spin rates on both his fastball and his curve.

Though a neck strain sidelined Tomlin for much of September, he likely wouldn’t have made the Braves’ postseason roster anyway.  The declined option doesn’t necessarily spell the end of his tenure with the club, as Atlanta could look to retain Tomlin via another minor league deal and see if the veteran has anything left in the tank during Spring Training.

Dayton has also been with Atlanta over the last three seasons, and was projected to earn $1.2MM this winter in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  The release allows the southpaw to get an early jump on a new job in free agency, rather than wait a few more weeks until the non-tender deadline (and the Braves also free up a roster spot in advance of the 40-man deadline on November 19).

Dayton pitched only 13 innings in 2021, as a shoulder injury kept him on the injured list for much of the last four months of the season.  Injuries have plagued Dayton for the last four years, as he missed all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery and he missed a big piece of the 2019 season due to a fractured toe.  The southpaw was pretty effective when he was able to pitch in 2019-20, though this year had a 6.23 ERA over his 13 frames.

Gore was signed to a minor league deal last winter and didn’t see any action for the Braves during the regular season, but was on the team’s roster for both the NLDS and the World Series.  Gore appeared in one game during the playoffs, pinch-running and being left stranded at first base in the Braves’ 3-0 win over the Brewers in Game 2 of the NLDS.  If he wishes, the 30-year-old Gore can decline the outright assignment and look for another contract elsewhere, and contenders might be interested in signing Gore for karma purposes alone.  The veteran pinch-running specialist has been a part of the last two World Series championship teams, and has three Series rings in total over his career, despite appearing in only 102 regular-season games from 2014-20.

Dodgers Decline Option On Joe Kelly

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have declined the $12MM club option for Joe Kelly for the 2022 season, per the team. The right-hander will receive a $4MM buyout and head to the open market, though a return to LA is certainly a possibility.

Kelly was hurt in his last appearance this postseason after serving as an opener. The pain “stemmed from the musculocutaneous nerve in Kelly’s arm,” per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. He is expected to resume a throwing program in six weeks, so he should have no problem getting ready for opening day.

Kelly and his mustache had a solid season in relief for the Dodgers. The 33-year-old appeared in 48 games, tossed 44 innings, and put up a 2.86 ERA/3.08 FIP. The power righty picked up a pair of saves and 13 holds while striking out a robust 27.5 percent of batters and walking a league-average 8.2 percent. He’ll be an attractive option for a contender given his postseason and high leverage experience.

Rangers Outright Ronald Guzman, Three Others

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Nov. 6: Ronald Guzman has elected free agency, per ESPN’s Enrique Rojas (via Twitter).

Nov. 5: The Rangers announced this afternoon that four players — first basemen Ronald Guzmán and Curtis Terry, infielder Anderson Tejeda and reliever Matt Bush — have cleared outright waivers. All four will be eligible for minor league free agency.

Guzmán came up as a well-regarded prospect and served as Texas’ regular first baseman for a good chunk of his first two MLB seasons. He didn’t hit for enough power to offset high strikeout rates, though, posting just a .229/.307/.415 line that checked in sixteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+ from 2018-19. Guzmán hasn’t played much over the past couple seasons, missing almost all of the 2021 campaign after tearing the meniscus in his right knee in April.

Like Guzmán, Bush also barely played this past season because of injury. The 35-year-old suffered a flexor strain in April and missed almost the entire year, although he did return after a long rehab to pitch on the season’s final day. It has now been three years since Bush’s last extended action, as he also missed all of the 2019 and 2020 campaigns because of an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.

Tejeda and Terry are career-long members of the organization with scant big league experience. The former has tallied 94 MLB plate appearances over the past two years, spending most of this past season at Double-A and Triple-A. The latter earned a thirteen-game major league cameo at the end of 2021 after hitting .275/.349/.533 with the Rangers’ top affiliate in Round Rock.

Pirates Outright Seven, Chasen Shreve Elects Free Agency

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The Pirates announced a slew of roster moves today, outrighting seven players off the 40-man roster, per the team. Pitchers Chase De Jong, Enyel De Los Santos, Kyle Keller, Connor Overton, Chasen Shreve, and Shea Spitzbarth have all been outrighted to Triple-A. Infielder Wilmer Difo was also outrighted to Triple-A.

Shreve has elected free agency, per Jason Mackey of PGSportsNow (via Twitter).The 31-year-old southpaw posted a 3.20 ERA/4.73 FIP across 57 appearances out of the bullpen. Shreve has suited up for the Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates over an eight-year career.

The Pirates also added a number of players to the 40-man roster, returning most from the 60-day injured list. Steven Brault, Blake Cederlind, Dillon Peters, Jose Soriano, Duane Underwood Jr., and Bryse Wilson are all now on the 40-man roster.

White Sox To Exercise Option To Keep Craig Kimbrel

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The White Sox will exercise their $16MM club option to retain reliever Craig Kimbrel, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). When first acquired at the trade deadline (for Codi Heuer and Nick Madrigal), it seemed a foregone conclusion that Chicago would pick up this option, but after a difficult half season on the south side, there was some lingering doubt.

Kimbrel was among the best relievers in the game for the Cubs during the first half of 2021, posting an insane 0.49 ERA/1.10 FIP over 36 2/3 innings while notching 23 saves. After moving to the American League, however, Kimbrel was tagged for a 5.04 ERA/4.56 FIP in 23 innings for the White Sox.

The Sox certainly gave up a lot to get Kimbrel, so it’s not shocking that they would try to get some more out of their investment. Of course, Kimbrel is also one of the most dominant closers of the past 20 years, and his full season numbers (2.26 ERA, 42.6 percent strikeout rate) suggest he’s well worth a $16MM price tag.

The short-term commitment could also make Kimbrel an interesting trade chip, should the White Sox look to make a move. In fact, Jon Heyman of MLB Network names Kimbrel as a trade chip (via Twitter), while Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune goes so far as to say they will “try to deal Kimbrel.”

Latest On Mets Search For A General Manager

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Another couple of names have been withdrawn from the Mets’ search for a new general manager. Sig Mejdal is now out of the running, per Andy Martino of SNY (via Twitter). Mejdal is an assistant general manager and vice president with the Orioles who came to Baltimore from Houston with Mike Elias. Mejdal’s strength is analytics, and he’ll continue to ply that trade to build towards a better future in Baltimore.

Red Sox assistant GM and vice president Raquel Ferreira pulled her name from the running as well after having discussions with Mets official this past week, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Ferreria’s name has been bandied about as a potential GM candidate around the league after 23 years in Boston.

Given how the last year has gone for Mets’ front office officials, it’s no surprise that Ferreira would pull her name from consideration. The organization’s culture has been repeatedly called into question, as has the autonomy of whoever takes over as GM, given Alderson’s continued presence in the organization.

Frankly, given the short tenures of Alderson’s first two hires as GM, it’s a touch surprising that he’s being given a third crack at this particular egg in the same calendar year. On the other hand, setting up the Mets front office for the future is the exact job that he was hired to do, and as of now, that task is incomplete.

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