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Kevin Kiermaier Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery

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The Rays announced that center fielder Kevin Kiermaier recently underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee (relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Recovery is expected to take four-to-six weeks, so Kiermaier shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of Spring Training.

While the surgery doesn’t seem likely to impact Kiermaier’s readiness for next season, it does at least add a bit of uncertainty to his outlook in an offseason where he figures to come up in trade rumors. Kiermaier is guaranteed another $14.5MM under the terms of the extension he signed in March 2017. He’ll receive a $12MM salary next season and is due at least a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option covering the 2023 campaign.

That’s not an outlandish sum for a player of Kiermaier’s caliber, but it’s a large portion of the payroll for a Tampa Bay club that always winds up among the league’s lowest spenders. He’s come up in trade discussions numerous times in the past — including the lead-up to this summer’s trade deadline — and the Rays’ front office figures to discuss him with other clubs again this winter. That’s all the more likely in light of the staggering nineteen arbitration-eligible players on the roster.

Kiermaier has only once eclipsed 130 games in a season, with his high-effort style of play frequently taking a physical toll. That said, the all-out mentality is also a big driver of elite defensive marks that perennially place Kiermaier among the game’s best outfielders. That was again the case in 2021, with Defensive Runs Saved crediting the 31-year-old as 13 runs better than average in 894 2/3 innings in center field. Combined with league average offense (.259/.328/.388 over 390 plate appearances), Kiermaier was valued at around three wins above replacement by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Marlins Outright Magneuris Sierra

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The Marlins have outrighted outfielder Magneuris Sierra, relays Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link). That suggests he’s already cleared waivers. As a player who has spent parts of seven seasons in the minor leagues, the 25-year-old Sierra will have the right to elect minor league free agency in the coming days.

The move could bring an end to Sierra’s four-season tenure in the organization. Originally a Cardinals’ prospect, he was traded to Miami alongside Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen and Daniel Castano as part of the December 2017 Marcell Ozuna deal. Sierra, who had briefly debuted with St. Louis the season before, was viewed as a potential everyday center fielder based on the strength of his speed, defense and bat-to-ball skills.

The left-handed hitting Sierra appeared in the majors in each of the past four seasons with Miami but never hit enough to live up to that everyday billing. He has yet to hit a home run in 540 MLB plate appearances, posting a .240/.287/.278 mark altogether. Sierra’s baserunning and defense have been strong as expected, but that lack of productivity at the plate eventually squeezed him out of a crowded if unsettled outfield mix. Miami still has Lewis Brinson, Brian Miller, Bryan De La Cruz and Monte Harrison as center field-capable players on the 40-man roster.

Brewers Sign Trevor Gott To Major League Deal

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2:35 pm: The Brewers have announced the deal.

12:58 pm: Gott’s deal is a split contract, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive a 40-man roster spot but earn different salaries depending upon if he’s pitching at the major league or minor league levels.

11:47 am: The Brewers are signing free agent reliever Trevor Gott to a one-year, major league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Gott is represented by Sports One Athlete Management.

It’s a bit surprising to see the right-hander land a big league deal right out of the gate. Gott was designated for assignment by the Giants last offseason and passed through outright waivers. Briefly re-selected to the 40-man roster in April, he was quickly DFA’d and again cleared the waiver wire. Gott spent the rest of the season with San Francisco’s top affiliate in Sacramento before electing minor league free agency last month. Because he qualified for minor league free agency in early October, Gott was eligible to sign elsewhere before the end of the current five-day window of exclusivity for teams to negotiate with their own free agents.

Gott had a nice run with the River Cats in 2021, tossing 41 2/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball over 43 appearances. Opponents’ .340 batting average on balls in play inflated his Triple-A run prevention numbers, but Gott punched out a very strong 31% of minor league hitters on the back of a solid 14.9% swinging strike rate.

Between 2015-20, Gott posted inconsistent results but intermittently flashed solid ability. He worked to a 3.02 ERA with the Angels in his rookie season, overcoming mediocre strikeout and walk numbers that year thanks to a massive 57.2% ground-ball rate. After three years with the Nationals riddled by injuries and underperformance, Gott seemed to break out with the 2019 Giants. While he posted an ordinary 4.44 ERA over 52 2/3 frames, his strikeout (26.6%), walk (7.9%) and swinging strike (10.8%) numbers were all solid or better.

Unfortunately for Gott, he couldn’t build off that success in 2020. He was tagged for thirteen runs, including a staggering seven homers, in just 11 2/3 innings. That remains his most recent body of work at the major league level, but the Milwaukee front office will take a low-risk roll of the dice that the 29-year-old can yet regain some of his best form.

Once made official, the Gott signing will bring Milwaukee’s 40-man roster tally up to 38. It’s not out of the question the Brewers could bump Gott from the 40-man at some point this winter should the need for another spot arise, but the front office is clearly intrigued by his potential to assume a role in next year’s bullpen. Gott is out of minor league option years, so he’ll either need to break camp with the big league team next season or be made available to the rest of the league. Should he right the ship and cement himself in the Brewers’ relief group, Gott could be controlled through the end of the 2024 campaign via arbitration.

Dellin Betances Qualifies For Free Agency

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The Major League Baseball Players Association released its initial list of major league free agents this afternoon. Among them was Mets’ reliever Dellin Betances, who failed to trigger the innings threshold necessary to vest a $1MM player option (h/t to Tim Britton of the Athletic).

The past two seasons have been disastrous for Betances, who has tallied just 12 2/3 combined innings because of injuries. He’s allowed ten runs in that span, certainly not what the Mets had in mind when signing the big right-hander to a $13.5MM guarantee over the 2019-20 offseason. Betances was one of the game’s most fearsome relievers during his peak with the Yankees, but it’s now been three years since he’s remained healthy. The 33-year-old missed almost all of this past season thanks to a shoulder injury that required surgery.

Now that he’s back on the open market, Betances might need to throw a showcase whenever he’s back to full health. He could be looking at minor league offers after three straight lost seasons, although there should still be plenty of teams willing to at least give him a look in Spring Training if he’s healthy.

Tigers Acquire Tucker Barnhart From Reds

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The Tigers have a new catcher, announcing a deal this afternoon to acquire veteran Tucker Barnhart from the Reds. Infield prospect Nick Quintana is headed back to Cincinnati in return.

Barnhart had been a career-long member of the Reds, who selected him in the 2009 draft. The switch-hitting backstop made his MLB debut in 2014 and has served as Cincinnati’s primary catcher for much of the past seven seasons. Barnhart has established himself as a capable backstop on both sides of the ball, combining nearly league average offense for the position with well-regarded defense.

The 2021 season was generally par for the course for Barnhart, who hit .247/.317/.368 with seven homers over 388 plate appearances. That’s right in line with his career offensive marks, with his 81 wRC+ a few points shy of the leaguewide mark (89) for catchers. Barhnart’s greater value lies on the other side of the ball. Generally well-regarded as a game manager, he’s also posted above-average pitch framing metrics over the past few seasons after rating poorly in that regard early in his career. He’s also done well at controlling the running game, cutting down a strong 32.1% of base-stealers over the course of his career — although his 28.3% rate this past season was closer to average.

That kind of steady but unspectacular production on both sides of the ball holds value, but the Reds have looked likely to move on from Barnhart this winter for quite some time. 25-year-old backstop Tyler Stephenson hit .286/.366/.431 over 402 trips to the plate in 2021, and it’s apparent the Reds would like to give Stephenson everyday run. Barnhart remains controllable next season via a $7.75MM club option, but that seemed a bit higher than the Reds would be willing to pay for a #2 backstop. It stands to reason Cincinnati will look for a cheaper veteran option to complement Stephenson this winter.

Detroit, on the other hand, didn’t enter the offseason with an obvious answer behind the plate. Tigers’ general manager Al Avila acknowledged as much last month, and the front office struck on the first day of the offseason to address that need. The Tigers will certainly exercise that option, and he now looks likely to receive the bulk of playing time behind the plate in 2022. Dustin Garneau, Grayson Greiner, Eric Haase and Jake Rogers (when he returns from September Tommy John surgery) are also on hand as potential depth options, although it’s likely at least one of that group gets bumped from the roster now that Barnhart is in the fold.

Exercising Barnhart’s option will bring Detroit’s payroll up to around $94MM, including arbitration projections, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s already north of the club’s season-opening mark in 2021 but nowhere near the franchise record levels of spending. Avila and CEO Christopher Ilitch have already suggested the club would expand payroll this winter, and the Barnhart acquisition shouldn’t have much of an effect on Detroit’s pursuit of further upgrades around the diamond. The Tigers are widely expected to look for help at shortstop and in the starting rotation, and they’ve been often speculated upon as a landing spot for one of the top free agent shortstops hitting the market.

In exchange for parting ways with their longtime catcher, the Reds will pick up a 24-year-old third base prospect. The Tigers selected Quintana in the second round of the 2019 draft. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs called him a potential everyday third baseman over the 2020-21 offseason, but he’s since stumbled to a .196/.329/.346 line over 347 plate appearances in Low-A. The Reds will take a shot on a hopeful turnaround with a change of scenery, but the seemingly light return suggests that Cincinnati was likely to decline Barnhart’s option within the next few days had they not found a trade partner.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported the sides were nearing agreement on a trade. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported the deal was completed and Quintana’s inclusion.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Mets’ Front Office Targets

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The list of names connected to the Mets’ front office continues growing with each passing day. The newest addition is former Angels’ general manager Billy Eppler, as Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets “have interest” in Eppler, though he has not yet been interviewed for the position.

Eppler has around 20 years of organizational experience at this point in his career, having been hired by the Rockies as a scout in the year 2000. He moved over to the Yankees in 2004, eventually getting promoted to the director of the scouting department, and then to assistant general manager prior to the 2012 season. He became the Angels’ general manager prior to the 2016 season and stayed in that role until being fired in September of 2020. Two months ago, it was revealed that Eppler had joined the William Morris Endeavor agency as a business partner. Given that Eppler is not currently employed by a rival club, he could seemingly avoid the typical song and dance that the Mets have had to go through with many other candidates, asking the club for permission for an interview and often being denied. At this point, it’s not clear if the Mets’ interest is reciprocated from Eppler’s side or if he’s committed to a new role on the other side of the bargaining table.

It was recently reported that the Red Sox were going to give assistant GM Raquel Ferreira permission to speak with the Mets, and it now seems a conversation is imminent. A report in the New York Post from Ken Davidoff, Joel Sherman and Mike Puma says that Ferreira and Mets’ officials will be speaking in the coming days, although it may not exactly be a formal interview. “It’s believed that the talk will be more of a ’Get to know you’ session,” says the article, “in which both sides will determine whether they want to take this idea any further.” However, Jon Heyman of MLB Network does use the word “interview” in a tweet about the matter. Regardless of semantics, it seems that Ferreira’s process is further along than many other executives, who have either been denied permission to speak with the Mets or quickly turned down their advances.

That same article also confirms previous reporting that the Mets are interested in Orioles’ assistant GM Sig Mejdal, although it’s not known if the Orioles will allow the Mets to interview him and, as the piece states, “There is uncertainty within the industry whether Mejdal wants to run a baseball operations department.”

Elsewhere in the Mets’ organization, they also have a vacancy at the manager level, and Heyman reports that they spoke with Bob Melvin before he made the leap from Oakland to San Diego, but that his preference for remaining on the West Coast kept talks from coming to fruition. There were no rumors of Melvin leaving Oakland before it was announced that he had been hired by the Padres, but it appears it that at least a few teams knew he was available and were discussing things behind the scenes.

Astros’ Pitching Coach Brent Strom Won’t Return In 2022

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In the champagne-colored haze that followed the World Series, the top story was the championship team in Atlanta, of course. But there was also some news from the opposing side, as Brent Strom held a post-game scrum and announced that he will not be returning as the Astros’ pitching coach next season. (Links from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of Fox 26.) A few weeks ago, Strom had hinted that he was considering this path, before making it official after last night’s game.

The 73-year-old isn’t committed to a full-on retirement necessarily, but seems confident about the role he won’t have. “There may be another opportunity for me somewhere else. I may look at that. I may just go lie on a beach in Mexico,” Strom said. “But I need to enjoy my life a little bit. I haven’t had a summer in a long time. So we’ll see. I haven’t made a final decision yet, but I know I won’t be back as the Major League pitching coach here. Yeah. I know that for a fact.”

Strom made 100 appearances over five seasons in his playing career, from 1972 to 1977. He logged 501 innings with an ERA of 3.95 over his time with three different clubs. Since then, he’s been coaching in different roles for various organizations, including the Royals, Nationals and Cardinals. But his most consistent stretch at the big league level has been his most recent tenure with the Astros, running from 2014 through 2021, which coincided with their emergence from a lengthy rebuild into a consistent powerhouse club, including the now-infamous championship club from 2017.

Strom’s departure opens up an important position in the dugout, and he seemed to imply that the torch will be passed to someone already within the organization, listing bullpen coach Josh Miller and assistant pitching coach Bill Murphy as options. “I really think this organization’s in a really good position with these two young pitching coaches that we have, and I’m sure had I stayed there would be teams coming after these two guys,” he said. “I think this organization deserves these two young guys, Murphy and Miller, to stay. How they work that out is up to them.” Miller has been with the organization since 2011, working in various roles over the past decade, but has been the bullpen coach for the past three seasons. Murphy signed on to work with the Astros’ minor leaguers prior to the 2017 season and then worked his way up to the big league team for the 2021 campaign.

It’s unclear if the Astros’ front office perceives the transition as smoothly as Strom does, but he made it clear that Miller and Murphy already deserve much of the credit for the current Houston pitching staff. “If you look at all these pitchers that we have right now, most of them came up through those two guys. Outside of Lance [McCullers Jr.] that I had as a holdover, all my guys have kind of moved on.” With that framing in mind, it seems like Strom has already been gradually relinquishing some duties to Murphy and Miller. But it remains to be seen how the organization will divvy up the job titles and responsibilities for next season, or if they plan to consider external hires.

Elsewhere on Houston’s coaching staff, there will also be a vacancy in the manager’s seat with Dusty Baker’s contract now expiring, although it’s possible that matter will be settled in short order. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Astros’ owner Jim Crane “plans to sit down with Dusty Baker in the next few days to iron out a one- or 2-year contract.” The return of Baker would not come as a huge surprise, given how his time in Houston has gone so far. The club was mired in the aftermath of the scandalous sign-stealing revelations when Crane personally hired Baker as the new skipper, and he has guided the club through a pair of successful campaigns, making it to the ALCS in 2020 and the World Series in 2021. Crane discussed the matter about a month ago and didn’t say anything definitive, but spoke positively of Baker. Dusty himself seemed to indicate that he wanted to return, when discussing things a few weeks ago, making it seem like there’s enough mutual interest for an extension to potentially come together fairly quickly.

The 2021-22 Offseason Begins

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The Braves wrapped up their first World Series title in 26 years tonight, beating the Astros 7-0 to secure a six-game victory. Atlanta’s title wraps up a 162-game season that featured increased fan attendance as the season progressed, a comparatively normal campaign after 2020’s shortened season.

With the 2021 season in the books, the league and its fans turn their attention to another offseason of uncertainty. This time, it’s potential labor strife that looms. With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire in a little less than a month’s time, there’s seemingly real potential for a work stoppage. The state of discussions between MLB and the Players Association figures to dominate industry headlines over the coming weeks, but the offseason is slated to follow its typical routine at least until the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1.

The CBA (or lack thereof) could throw the sport’s post-December 1 calendar into a state of flux. There’s as much uncertainty about how this offseason will progress as any in recent history, then, but here’s how things are currently scheduled to pan out:

November 3: The beginning of a five-day period where teams and players must decide whether to exercise or decline contract options and opt-out clauses for the 2022 season. Eligible free agents cannot sign with anyone but their current team for five more days.

November 7, 4:00 pm CST: The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers (one-year, $18.4MM contracts) to eligible free agents. For a breakdown of the draft choices teams would forfeit by signing a qualified free agent, see here.

November 8: Free agency officially opens.

November 8-11: General managers’ meetings, hosted in Carlsbad, California.

November 17: Deadline for players tagged with a qualifying offer to accept or reject the QO.

November 19: Deadline for teams to add players to the 40-man roster to keep them from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

December 1, 11:59 pm: Expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. If MLB and the MLBPA do not agree on a new CBA by then, the league may institute a lockout that freezes teams’ ability to make transactions until negotiations are resolved.

December 2: The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

December 6-9: Winter meetings scheduled to take place in Orlando, Florida.

December 8: Rule 5 draft.

December 15: Conclusion of the 2020-21 international amateur signing period. Typically scheduled to run from July through June, the 2020-21 and 2021-22 international signing periods were delayed to run from January through December as part of MLB’s COVID-19 rules changes.

January 14, 2022: Date for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures. Teams and players are still free to settle and avoid arbitration after this date, although many clubs elect to proceed with a “file-and-trial” strategy — essentially deciding to proceed to a hearing with any players with whom a settlement is not reached by then.

January 15, 2022: The scheduled start of the 2021-22 international amateur signing period. The 2021-22 period is scheduled to run through December 15, 2022.

February 26, 2022: First games of Spring Training.

March 31, 2022: Opening Day.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ fourth consecutive postseason appearance ended in more October heartbreak, as the Braves eliminated Milwaukee in four games in the NLDS.  As the Brewers look to contend again next season, some tough financial decisions may have to be made depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $188.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $18MM through 2022
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $17.5MM in 2022 (includes $8MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023 — Bradley can opt out of $9.5MM salary for 2022, and receives $6.5MM buyout in the event of an opt-out)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $12.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; Brewers also hold $8MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM in 2022 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2023)
  • Josh Lindblom, RP: $2.75MM in 2022 (Brewers outrighted Lindblom off 40-man roster in May)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Brewers’ buzz early in the offseason has focused on their executives being targeted by the Mets, though New York’s inquiries ended up being much ado about nothing.  The Brewers again denied the Mets permission to speak with president of baseball operations David Stearns, and assistant GM Matt Arnold also removed his name from consideration and ended up with a contract extension to remain in Milwaukee.  This situation is worth monitoring for the future, considering that Stearns’ contract may or may not be up after the 2022 season, depending on a possible vesting option that could extend the Brewers’ control over the PBO through 2023.  With the Mets’ interest looming, there is sure to be plenty of attention paid to Stearns’ status with the Brew Crew, though one would expect owner Mark Attanasio to again look into extending his top baseball exec.

For now, Stearns’ focus is on figuring out how to get Milwaukee to take the next step and reach a World Series.  Offense was a problem for the Brewers even as they had a fairly comfortable run to the NL Central title, and the issue came to a head when the Brewers scored only six runs in their four games with Atlanta.  A change has already been made at hitting coach, but some lineup reinforcements are also a must.

Looking at the more settled positions, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and breakout player Luis Urias all hit well in 2021 and have three of the infield spots covered.  All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez slumped badly in the second half but still finished with roughly league-average offense (99 OPS+ and wRC+) for the season, which represents a bounce-back from a brutal 2020 campaign.

Manny Pina hit well enough to make up for some of Narvaez’s late struggles, though Pina is now set for free agency after six years as a part-time starter and backup in Milwaukee.  There is enough need for catching around the league that another team could offer Pina a more regular job, though the 34-year-old could reunite with the Brewers on a new contract if Pina is comfortable in his current role.  If Pina doesn’t re-sign, the Crew will be on the hunt for a new backup catcher, preferably a right-handed hitter considering Narvaez’s lack of production against southpaws.  Prospect Mario Feliciano is also on hand, and Luke Maile could return if tendered a contract.

Eduardo Escobar is another free agent, and is less likely to return considering that Wong and Urias are slated for everyday work at second and third base.  This is another area where the Brewers will be looking for backup options, likely a utility type given the front office’s penchant for versatile players.  Retaining Jace Peterson could help in that regard, and the Brewers could pair Peterson with a right-handed hitter to provide additional coverage on the bench.

Rowdy Tellez was streaky and spent some time on the injured list, but the slugger hit well after being acquired from the Blue Jays in July, and Tellez seems to be penciled in for at least a share of the first base job.  This leaves Daniel Vogelbach as a possible non-tender candidate, as even if the National League has a DH position available in 2022, having both Tellez and Vogelbach as left-handed hitting first base-only players seems like a redundancy.  Tellez is over two years younger than Vogelbach, has an extra year of team control and had better numbers in 2020-21, though Vogelbach did miss a good chunk of last season due to injury.  All things considered, it would seem like the Brewers would favor Tellez over Vogelbach, though with only a $2MM projected salary for Vogelbach, it wouldn’t break the bank to keep him around.

A right-handed complement seems like a necessary add for the first base/DH mix, though Milwaukee is probably still hopeful that Keston Hiura can fill that role from within.  Hiura is only 25 years old and has just 791 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while the Brewers aren’t likely to give up on the former top prospect, adding a more proven veteran seems logical given how badly Hiura has struggled over the last two seasons.  Ideally, the Brewers could find a versatile player who can hit from the right side and fill in at several infield spots (i.e. Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Duffy).  If the team looked to just first base-only types, Milwaukee could be a hypothetical landing spot for Albert Pujols, as odd as it would be to see Pujols on an NL Central team besides the Cardinals.

The outfield is far less set than the infield, even if three outfield starters are technically already in place.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a rough year at the plate and is sure to exercise his $9.5MM player option for 2022 rather than test free agency.  Lorenzo Cain will return for the final year of his contract, and Christian Yelich’s contract extension will now officially begin, as 2022 is the first season of the seven years and $188.5MM in new money guaranteed under the terms of his deal.

Yelich is the biggest question, as in the two seasons since inking that extension, he’s gone from perennial MVP candidate to only slightly more than a league-average bat — his .234/.360/.392 slash line over 722 PA in 2020-21 translates to a 103 OPS+ and 105 wRC+.  Yelich is still making plenty of hard contact but his power numbers have dwindled, his strikeout rate has risen sharply, and opposing teams have been using the shift much more frequently against him, which has sapped his offensive production.

Cain is another player whose bat has gone south, hitting only .260/.328/.381 in 930 PA since the start of the 2019 season.  Cain opted out for much of the 2020 campaign and sandwiched that lost year between two injury-plagued seasons, so the Brewers simply can’t be sure of what to expect from Cain as he enters his age-36 season.  The same goes for Bradley, who was healthy last year but his offense absolutely cratered in his first year in Milwaukee.

Considering Yelich, Cain, and Bradley are the three highest-paid players on Milwaukee’s payroll, this certainly isn’t a welcome situation for a team with a fairly limited mid-market budget.  The Brew Crew has no recourse but to count on a rebound from Yelich given their long-term commitment, and since Cain and Bradley are still providing superb defense, the Brewers could just go with a Cain/Bradley platoon in center field and give the promising Tyrone Taylor a clear shot at everyday at-bats in right field.

Avisail Garcia was far and away the best hitter in Milwaukee’s 2021 outfield, but he amassed just enough plate appearances to trigger a vesting option in his contract, turning the Brewers’ $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option.  It can be reasonably assumed that the team would still want to retain Garcia at that price, though since mutual options are rarely agreed upon by both sides, it seems likely that Garcia will decline his end of the deal and test the free agent market in search of a longer-term commitment.

This leaves a big hole in the Brewers’ lineup, though some scenarios exist where Garcia is back in Milwaukee next year.  Assuming he opts for free agency, the Brewers could then issue a qualifying offer — Garcia might be more open to a one-year deal for an $18.4MM payday than for $12MM.  If Garcia declined the QO, the Brewers could at least recoup a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere.  If Garcia accepted the QO, that puts another hefty salary on the Brewers’ books, but the team could pivot by trying to see what they could get for Cain or Bradley on the trade market.

Cain or Bradley alone would be tough sells as trade chips, unless the Brewers were to take on another team’s unpalatable contract…or if the Brewers paired one of those outfielders with a more sought-after trade asset.  You guessed it, it’s time for another offseason of Josh Hader trade speculation, and packaging the All-Star closer as part of a larger deal would be a bold way for the Crew to both clear some salary space and bring some young talent into the pipeline.

Hader delivered another excellent season, and his salary is now set to jump from $6.675MM to a projected $10MM in his third of four arbitration-eligible years.  That is still quite a reasonable sum for arguably the best reliever in baseball, yet it does represent a big portion of Milwaukee’s payroll, so the time may finally be right for the Brewers to pull the trigger on a Hader deal.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Crew would spend much to replace Hader, as Devin Williams is already the heir apparent at closer and Brent Suter had a nice year as a setup man.  The Brewers have consistently been able to score with inexpensive bullpen additions, so while Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland are set for free agency, the club will probably look to fill those gaps and the potential loss of Hader with other lower-level additions.

The bullpen is also supported by one of the sport’s best rotations.  Corbin Burnes will receive Cy Young Award consideration, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta weren’t too far behind, and Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson all provided quality work at the back end.  Anderson is a free agent, so Milwaukee could give youngster Aaron Ashby a longer look as a starter, or bring in another low-cost veteran hurler if Anderson himself isn’t brought back.

Hader is the priciest member of a large Milwaukee arbitration class that projects to top the $40MM threshold, even after subtracting a few non-tender candidates.  Between the arb-eligibles, the players on guaranteed contracts, and the pre-arbitration players, Roster Resource calculates around $112.4MM on the Brewers’ books for 2022.  This already represents the larger Brewers payroll since Attanasio bought the team in 2005, though in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), the Brew Crew’s payroll surged to over $132MM by the end of the year.

With 2022 promising to be a more normal year revenue-wise, could ownership green-light another spending bump?  Returning to even 2019’s spending levels would give Stearns some flexibility in making offseason moves, and perhaps allow a decision on Hader’s future to be held off until next winter.  In fact, all those rising arbitration costs for key pitchers could lead to more tough decisions as early as the 2022-23 offseason, so an argument can be made that this roster should be given one last chance to win a championship before the Brewers have to start thinking about parting ways with other core pieces.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see another blockbuster move like the Cain signing or Yelich’s extension.  The Brewers have enough talent in place that just a return to form from Yelich in 2022 might be all the club needs to make more noise in the playoffs.  With no guarantee of that scenario, however, expect the team to add at least one big bat to guard against another October power outage.

AL Notes: McKay, Rays, Angels, Rendon, Mariners

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The Rays are expected to receive a fourth option year on left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. If that indeed proves to be the case, Tampa Bay would be able to option McKay to the minor leagues through the end of next season.

Most players can be optioned for three seasons. After a team exhausts those option years, they have to keep a player on the active roster or remove him from the 40-man roster entirely (thereby allowing other clubs an opportunity to trade for or claim that player off waivers). However, for players who have accrued fewer than five full professional seasons — defined as years with at least ninety days on a major league or minor league active roster — teams may be granted a fourth option year.

Fourth options most often come into play for players who have missed a significant amount of time in their careers on account of injuries. McKay is no exception, as he has barely pitched at any level over the past two seasons. After missing all of 2020 and the first half of this season recovering from shoulder surgery, the southpaw suffered a flexor strain in August that ended his 2021 campaign after just seven minor league outings.

More from the American League:

  • The 2021 season was a disappointment for Angels star Anthony Rendon, who was held to 249 plate appearances by three separate injuries. His season came to a close in early August, when he underwent surgery to repair a right hip impingement. Fortunately, it doesn’t seem that injury is expected to carry over into next season, as Rendon told Grant Paulsen and Kevin Frandsen of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link) this afternoon that he intends to be ready for Spring Training. “That’s the gameplan,” Rendon said. “That was what kind of pushed us to get the surgery done sooner than later. We were dealing with it for the entire year, trying to figure out what was going on and figure out the best way to approach it. … Once we knew where we stood in the standings and whatnot, we needed to knock it out so I could have an entire offseason to be able to get ready for Spring Training. That’s the goal.” The ongoing issues with his hip could certainly offer an explanation for Rendon’s downturn in production. The typically-excellent hitter posted a slightly below-average .240/.329/.382 line, the worst showing of his career at the plate.
  • For the first time in a decade, the Mariners will enter an offseason with some uncertainty at the hot corner. With the club set to buy out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager, Seattle could look to address the position outside the organization. Corey Brock of the Athletic explores the various possibilities, ranging from internal options like Ty France and Abraham Toro to a big-ticket free agent pursuit. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken a few times about the team’s ability and desire to make some meaningful upgrades to the roster on the free agent market. Dipoto voiced a specific preference for “adaptable” players who have shown an ability to move around the diamond. Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor — each of whom Brock suggests as a speculative possibility for the M’s to target this winter — both have demonstrated the capacity to bounce between multiple positions, including third base.

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