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Latest Mets’ Front Office Rumblings

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As names continue to be bandied about in the Mets’ front office search, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Twins assistant general manager Daniel Adler will be staying put. It’s not clear whether Adler had a formal interview. He was previously reported to be “on the Mets’ radar,” but both Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino suggest that Adler prefers to remain in Minnesota rather than pursue outside opportunities — be it with the Mets or another club.

Adler has spent the past four-plus years in the Twins’ front office. Initially hired as the team’s director of baseball operations, he was bumped up to assistant general manager over the 2019-20 offseason. Prior to being hired by Minnesota, the now 34-year-old Adler spent a few seasons working in research and development with the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars.

Apparently, Adler has decided to spend at least one more season with the Twins, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if his name comes up in other executive searches in future offseasons. For now, his decision to stay put removes another candidate for the Mets, whose search for a new baseball operations leader has already seen numerous targets either take themselves out of consideration or not receive permission from their current clubs to interview with New York.

While Adler’s no longer in the running for the position, another candidate has emerged. The Mets are considering Orioles assistant GM Sig Mejdal as part of their ongoing search, report Dan Connolly and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (Twitter link), although they caution it’s unclear as of yet whether Mejdal has interest in the position.

Mejdal has spent the past three seasons as an AGM with Baltimore, serving as a top lieutenant for baseball ops leader Mike Elias. Mejdal, 55, followed Elias to the O’s after six years working together in the Astros’ front office. A former NASA biomathematician, Mejdal has been a key member of Elias’ analytics staff in Baltimore.

MLBTR Poll: Will J.D. Martinez Opt Out?

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With all but two teams eliminated and the offseason proper fast approaching, focus across much of baseball has shifted to 2022, particularly given an unusually strong free agent class and an uncertain (and volatile) labor situation. As previously noted by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk, this means the resurfacing of what’s become an annual question: will J.D. Martinez exercise the opt-out clause in his contract with the Red Sox?

This will be Martinez’s third and final opportunity to opt out of the front-loaded five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston following the 2017 season. That call was probably never on the table last year, thanks to a less-than-stellar showing (.680 OPS, more than 200 points below his career average) in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. It was a live possibility after 2019, though, when he put together a .304/.383/.557 line on the heels of a monster .330/.402/.629 mark in 2018. He has one year and $19.375MM left on his deal and is essentially a lock to receive a qualifying offer (set for $18.4MM) should he choose to test the market.

Following a bounceback 2021 (.286/.349/.518 in 634 plate appearances) that saw Martinez return to roughly his career averages, the opt-out is again a real option, though it does not come without potential downside. Martinez told WEEI’s Rob Bradford in late September that he’s “right in the middle” on the decision. While it’s entirely possible that his public statements are mere posturing, there are good reasons for Martinez to waffle on a decision that would require him to leave significant guaranteed money on the table without a clear picture of what the market or labor situation are likely to look like. The rumor mill is split on the issue, with Ken Rosenthal suggesting (on the Athletic Baseball Show) that he expects Martinez to exercise the clause while Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe is less convinced, particularly given the uncertain state of the universal DH.

On one hand, the 34-year-old Martinez has an enviable track-record (his .881 career OPS ranks 10th among active players) and proved in 2021 that his bat still has enough pop to make any lineup stronger. Indeed, Martinez’s would-be walk year showed few significant signs of decline; he maintained a K% and BB% (23.7% and 8.7%) roughly in line with both his career marks and MLB averages and a hard-hit rate (defined as the percentage of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) of 49.4% that falls only just below his career mark of 50.8% and well above the MLB average of 38.7%. He also stayed mostly healthy, playing in 148 regular-season and nine postseason games for the Red Sox, though a late-season ankle sprain did keep him out of Boston’s AL Wild Card matchup with the Yankees.

On the other, Martinez’s defensive limitations don’t necessarily limit him to DH-only status but do make it unlikely any team would bank on playing him in the outfield on more than an occasional basis. While he was solid in limited defensive action in 2021 (2 defensive runs saved in 36 games), his career numbers tell a different story (-38 DRS, though 35 of these came in right field), and he hasn’t seen action in the outfield more than 60 times in a season since a poor showing (-18 DRS) across 118 games in right for Detroit in 2016. The probable introduction of the DH to the National League in the new CBA likely expands his market but does little to extend his on-field value.

With significant but mostly one-dimensional production, Martinez’s decision isn’t the easiest. Arguably a top-20 free agent in a strong class, Martinez is likely to receive some multi-year offers, but it’s unlikely many GMs will be eager to give a player with limited defensive value and nearing the back half of his 30s anything remotely approaching the deal he signed with the Red Sox — particularly as it will also cost them a draft pick. Another front-loaded deal is a real possibility, but teams will likely ask Martinez to take a cut in AAV for any significant length.

Accordingly, the question likely comes down to which Martinez values more: his short-term salary or a longer-term guarantee. Will Martinez bet on himself to put up another strong year and hit the market next offseason in a similar situation, or will he try to cash in on his strong 2021 and seek a longer deal?

 

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Braves Place Adrianza On Postseason Paternity List, Activate Camargo

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Per a Tuesday morning press release, the Braves have placed utilityman Ehire Adrianza on the postseason paternity list and activated infielder Johan Camargo ahead of tonight’s World Series Game 6. MLB rules require that Adrianza spend a minimum of one day and a maximum of three on the paternity list, though the latter will not come into play with the season set to conclude in less than 48 hours. Both players are switch hitters capable of offering serviceable defense at multiple positions.

While neither would be likely to see game action with the series shifting back to an AL park, the move represents a marginal downgrade for the Braves, who had used Adrianza as their top pinch-hitting option in the NLCS (when Jorge Soler was sidelined following a positive COVID test) and a secondary option in the World Series. Though he’s hitless in two at bats against the Astros,  Adrianza did deliver a crucial two-out double ahead of Eddie Rosario’s game-deciding three-run homer in the fourth inning of Game 6 of the NLCS. Camargo, who had been on the Braves’ NLCS roster, is hitless in four trips to the plate so far this postseason.

With time at six positions in 2021 in something of a super-utility role, Adrianza also would have likely represented a top option at a number of positions in the event of an injury. He amassed a .247/.327/.401 across 209 plate appearances in his first season in Atlanta — all of which slightly exceeded his career averages — as he helped to bridge the gap that arose following Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending injury and Marcell Ozuna’s season-ending legal troubles.

Should such a need arise, it may now fall to Camargo, who slashed .272/.349/.457 across 524 plate appearances as the Braves’ primary third baseman during the 2018 season. The 2019 arrival of Josh Donaldson and subsequent emergence of Austin Riley have largely rendered Camargo surplus to requirements in Atlanta, however. He’s struggled mightily since his breakout 2018, slashing a combined .212/.260/.361 (good for a dismal 58 OPS+), and has recorded a meager two walks and zero hits in 18 big-league plate appearances in 2021.

Camargo has mashed in Triple-A (.958 OPS in 436 PAs this year), however, suggesting his struggles with the parent club may be attributable to a small sample size and irregular playing time. He’s also been a significantly better hitter against lefties than righties, posting an .833 OPS hitting from the right side against .700 from the left, but the Braves are still likelier to turn to mid-season pickup Orlando Arcia should a pinch-hitting situation unexpectedly arise.

Still, Camargo does replace some of Adrianza’s positional versatility, potentially enabling Braves’ manager Brian Snitker to pinch-run for a starter in a late-game situation (speedster Terrance Gore is on the roster) without sacrificing too much defensively. All in all, the move is unlikely to amount to much with the DH in play from Game 6 (and a possible Game 7) of the World Series, but it is possible Camargo may be asked to play a role.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After scoring big in last year’s free agent market, the Blue Jays have some major holes to fill as they look to take the next step forward for a playoff berth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Despite winning 91 games, the Blue Jays still finished fourth in the stacked AL East, as the Red Sox and Yankees each won 92 games and earned wild card berths.  While so many things went right for the club in 2021, falling just a game shy of the playoffs leads to a thousand “if only…” scenarios.  Since the division doesn’t figure to get any easier next year, the Blue Jays are now challenged to not only get back to that 91-win threshold, but likely to bank a few more victories and break through to the postseason.

Fortunately for Toronto fans, the Jays already started preparing for 2022 even while in the midst of last year’s pennant race.  Acquiring Jose Berrios, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards not only helped the Blue Jays bolster their in-season pitching needs, but all three hurlers came with extra years of control (Berrios through 2022, Cimber/Richards through 2023).  That gave the Jays a jump on solidifying a bullpen that struggled badly in the first half, and Berrios adds another front-of-the-rotation arm to a starting five that might lose two arms to free agency.

Robbie Ray was one of the bargains of the 2020-21 offseason.  The southpaw quickly re-signed with the Jays for a one-year, $8MM pact, and then delivered a season that may yet result in a Cy Young Award.  Steven Matz’s contributions also shouldn’t be overlooked, as Matz battled with his consistency from time to time but still posted a solid 3.82 ERA over 150 2/3 innings.

Bringing back either of these pitchers is a distinct possibility.  Ray will require perhaps the priciest contract given to any free agent pitcher this winter, though he has spoken highly of his time with the Jays and the coaching staff’s help in unlocking this new level of production.  As a common matter of business, Ray will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, though the team is also reportedly thinking about issuing Matz the QO.  That would be a bold move since $18.4MM is likely well beyond what the Jays would normally feel comfortable giving to Matz in average annual value.  However, if Matz accepted the one-year deal, the Jays could cross one big need off their checklist very early in the offseason.

And, if Matz rejected the QO, that would put the Jays in line for compensatory draft pick.  That would make it as many as three extra picks for Toronto if Matz, Ray, and Marcus Semien all rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere.  With this bonus draft-day stockpile, the Jays could feel more comfortable about surrendering another pick in order to ink another “qualified” free agent.  (Caveat: this assumes some type of similar qualifying offer/compensatory pick system will continue to be in place in the next collective bargaining agreement between the league and players.)

Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and rookie star Alek Manoah are currently lined up to fill the top three spots in Toronto’s 2022 rotation.  The Blue Jays hope that Nate Pearson can stay healthy and have a Manoah-esque breakout, though the club might also use Pearson in the bullpen.  Doing so would help to monitor his innings, which could be necessary considering how Pearson has pitched only 187 total innings in five seasons of pro ball.  Ross Stripling will also return to make starts at the back end of the rotation or work as a long reliever, while younger arms like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or (if he isn’t non-tendered) Trent Thornton provide more starting depth.

If not Ray or Matz, some type of additional help is needed for this rotation mix.  The signings of Ryu and George Springer over the last two seasons are evidence that the Jays are comfortable shopping at the top of the market, so pretty much any member of the free agent starter class is a possibility.  The Jays could target the bigger names, or perhaps go after one big-ticket pitcher and then a lower-tier arm in search of a rebound year (essentially, the next Ray or Matz).

The same could also be true of the bullpen market, though traditionally, the Jays haven’t spent much on relief pitching since Ross Atkins became general manager.  The club’s $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last winter counted as a big investment by that standard, yet that contract quickly became a bust since Yates missed the entire year due to Tommy John surgery.

Yates’ bad elbow was one of many injuries that ravaged Toronto’s bullpen early in the season.  While the sheer volume of maladies is maybe unlikely to happen again, Atkins may focus on stockpiling bullpen depth to guard against a repeat scenario.  This could manifest itself in a flood of minor league deals or low-cost MLB deals, or the front office might aim higher on the reliever market and look to someone in the Corey Knebel/Collin McHugh tier to join with Cimber, Richards, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, and closer Jordan Romano.

Besides just free agents, the Blue Jays can always look to add arms via trade.  The Jays has already parted with notable talent (Rowdy Tellez for Richards; top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Berrios) to land pitching, so this is another instance where multiple compensatory picks could factor into the team’s decision-making.  If the Jays know they’ll have two or three extra picks to reload the farm in the next draft, they might be more willing to swap another significant youngster this winter.

It’s probably unlikely that Toronto would move such blue-chip prospects as Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, or Orelvis Martinez, yet moving Martin a year after drafting him fifth overall also didn’t seem likely until it happened.  If the right controllable star player is available, Atkins has shown that he is willing to take the big plunge on the trade front.  For instance, to land a premium position player like Ketel Marte or (past Jays trade target) Jose Ramirez, the Jays could be more amenable to giving up a major prospect.

Alternatively, trading an infielder like Groshans or Martinez could be more palatable if the Jays knew Semien would be in the fold for years to come.  After betting on himself with a one-year, $18MM deal last winter, Semien hit the jackpot with a huge 45-homer campaign.  With two MVP-caliber performances in his last three seasons, Semien is now set to receive one of the bigger contracts of any free agent this winter, even in an offseason that features so many other elite shortstops.

Of course, Semien didn’t play much shortstop during his year in Toronto, instead working as the everyday second baseman alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.  Since Bichette’s defense improved as the year went on, a Jays/Semien reunion would likely hinge on whether Semien is open to remaining at second base.  Semien has the leverage to call his own shot at this point, so if he is prioritizing a return to shortstop or (as some reports suggest) a return to the West Coast, the Blue Jays may be out of luck.

The Jays’ lineup still has a lot of pop even without Semien.  Bichette, a healthier Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a strong nucleus.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown to be incredibly productive when on one of his hot streaks.  Catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen were similarly up-and-down amid injury-hampered 2021 seasons but still finished as above-average offensive contributors by measure of wRC+.

Santiago Espinal also surprisingly emerged to deliver some quality hitting from the third base position, which helped counter Cavan Biggio’s down year.  Heading into 2022, the Espinal/Biggio combination could work as a platoon at third base or second base, depending on how the Blue Jays fill Semien’s spot.  Espinal can handle either position from a defensive perspective, while a move to second base might be preferable for Biggio since his glovework struggled at the hot corner.  Prospect Otto Lopez is another super-utility option who made his MLB debut in 2021 and could be ready for a longer look on Toronto’s bench next year.

Still, this flexibility allows the Jays to explore all options at either infield position.  They could try to land a longer-term star (e.g. re-signing Semien, trading for Jose Ramirez, signing Corey Seager), or maybe obtain a veteran stopgap (e.g. Kyle Seager) to act as a bridge to Groshans or Martinez.  Signing a multi-position player like Chris Taylor would only further increase their roster’s versatility, but with so many right-handed hitters already in the fold, a lefty or switch-hitter could be preferable.

Without a regular DH on the roster, the Blue Jays have enough space in the lineup to find at-bats for the outfield core of Gurriel, Springer, Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk.  That said, although Grichuk has some power and can at least fill in at all three outfield spots, he also has just 1.5 combined fWAR since the start of the 2019 season.  He seems like an expendable piece if the Jays can find a taker for the $18.66MM remaining on his contract.

Gurriel is cheaper and has more trade value, but he also has more value to the Jays.  Toronto might rue moving Gurriel if he should develop as a consistent hitter in another team’s lineup.  If one of Gurriel or Grichuk was dealt, the Blue Jays could explore re-signing Corey Dickerson, a left-handed bat who hit pretty well after being obtained from the Marlins.

With so many possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, it’s worth wondering just how much payroll space will be available to the club.  Toronto has a deep arbitration class that is projected to be worth more than $40MM, factoring in big raises for Berrios, Hernandez, and Guerrero.  Ryu and Springer take up big chunks of the guaranteed money on the books, though overall, the Jays have roughly $112.4MM to $114.5MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource) committed to their 2022 payroll.

Team president Mark Shapiro has already indicated that the Jays are prepared to spend more next season than they did in 2021, which means an increase from the roughly $140.6MM Roster Resource calculated as the club’s 2021 expenditures.  Not all of these extra funds could be spent specifically in the offseason, as the Blue Jays will likely want to keep some money free for any necessary in-season transactions.  However, since Toronto’s payroll topped the $165MM threshold (as per Cot’s) as recently as 2017, the Jays might have quite a bit of cash on hand to swing transactions assuming ownership is fine with a return to that level of spending.  Acquiring a new high-salaried player or re-signing one of Semien or Ray would alone take up a big portion of those extra funds, so the Blue Jays might look to trim some of their existing costs through trades.

It is also worth noting that Springer is the only player on the books beyond the 2023 season, so the Jays could get creative in signing players to backloaded contracts.  This future salary space will also come in handy as the team starts thinking about extensions.  Berrios is the most pressing concern entering his final year of control, while Hernandez has two years of control remaining.  Some long-term mega-deals will be required if the team hopes to lock up Bichette and especially Guerrero at this point.

The 2021 season has to be considered something of a missed opportunity for the Jays, considering how Semien and Ray performed beyond expectations, Manoah delivered the rookie breakout that was expected for Pearson, and Guerrero emerged as one of baseball’s best hitters.  Still, the team heads into 2022 with a lot of momentum, and a return to normalcy has already been established now that the Jays are officially back in Toronto (as opposed to Buffalo and Dunedin).  The Blue Jays would’ve loved to have cap off that homecoming with some playoff games this October, but they’ll now need to do some work this offseason to make that dream a reality next fall.

Nationals To Name Gary DiSarcina Third Base Coach

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The Nationals are bringing veteran big league coach Gary DiSarcina aboard as their new third base coach, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter thread). They’re also bringing assistant hitting coach Pat Roessler back in that same role.

The 53-year-old DiSarcina had a 12-year playing career as a shortstop with the Angels, appearing in the big leagues each season from 1989-2000. He spent time in the Halos’ front office and then as a minor league manager in the years following his retirement, but his past eight seasons have been spent on big league coaching staffs.

DiSarcina spent three years as a base coach with the Angels organization before heading to the Red Sox — where he’d previously managed in Triple-A — to serve as bench coach. His next stop came with the Mets, again as a bench coach in 2018, and then as third base coach fort he past three seasons.

Roessler, 61, has been the Nats’ assistant hitting coach in each of the past two seasons. Like DiSarcina, he’d been with the Mets prior to his time in D.C. After a lengthy stint in the Yankees’ player development department (including a run as their farm director), he joined the Mets’ coaching staff in 2015: first as an assistant hitting coach and, by 2018, as their lead hitting coach.

There’s been a fair bit of turnover on the Nationals’ staff already this offseason. Hitting coach Kevin Long departed to take the same job with the division-rival Phillies, prompting the Nats to bring Darnell Coles back to the organization to join the Major League staff in that role. Recently retired outfielder Eric Young Jr. is lined up to serve as the Nationals’ new first base coach, replacing Randy Knorr. DiSarcina will be replacing Bob Henley. Both Knorr and Henley were reassigned to player development roles earlier in the offseason.

Mets Parting Ways With Zack Scott

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The Mets are parting ways with acting general manager Zack Scott, reports Andy Martino of SNY. His tenure in the New York front office lasts a little less than a year, as the Mets hired him away from the Red Sox as an assistant GM last December.

Scott was bumped up to acting general manager a little more than a month later, once then-GM Jared Porter was dismissed after Porter’s prior sexual harassment of a reporter came to light. Scott was in charge of daily baseball operations in Queens for much of this past season, but his own future in the organization came into question when he was arrested and charged with a DWI at the end of August. The Mets placed Scott on administrative leave once his arrest was made public, and that course of events will result in his departure from the organization.

Once Scott was placed on leave, team president Sandy Alderson assumed control of day-to-day baseball ops. Alderson is expected to move back into a broader advisory role — as he initially intended when rejoining the Mets last year — and the club has been on the hunt for a new baseball operations head since the end of the regular season. That search has involved some highly-publicized misses on their early targets (Theo Epstein, David Stearns, and Billy Beane among them), and most recent reports suggest the club has turned their attention to younger, up-and-coming executives with other clubs.

Settling on a baseball operations leader remains the biggest point of order for the Mets to kick off their offseason. Over the summer, it seemed like Scott was a plausible candidate to eventually take hold of that role permanently. But his arrest and subsequent leave placement seemed to foreclose that possibility, and there’d been no indication he was in consideration for the position since the end of the season.

It remains to be seen whether or when Scott will land elsewhere, although that could depend on the resolution of his still-pending legal matter. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reported last week that Scott’s trial is set to begin on December 8.

Rotation Market Rumors: Kershaw, Gausman, Giants, DeSclafani

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Clayton Kershaw’s 2021 season didn’t go as hoped. The Dodgers icon was sharp when healthy and posted his best K-BB% (25.3) since 2017, ultimately logging a 3.55 ERA in 121 1/3 innings with even better fielding-independent marks. That said, Kershaw also missed more than two months due to a forearm injury and was only able to briefly return before a recurrence of that same issue wiped him out for the postseason. Asked at his end-of-season press conference whether Kershaw would be viewed differently than other free agents because of his history with the club, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters that’s likely to be the case (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Juan Toribio):

“Yeah, I think that’s fair,” said Friedman. “Obviously what he’s meant to this organization, to the city — from his standpoint, I think it’s all about what makes sense for him and Ellen and their family. … “I think, taking off my president of baseball operations hat, there’s something nostalgic and great about Kersh playing with one team and being able to win another championship and having a parade.”

Friedman noted that Kershaw has earned the right to do what’s best for his family but spoke glowingly of the lefty’s legacy and implied a desire to continue the relationship. Kershaw reportedly won’t require surgery, and the Dodgers will have the option of making a qualifying offer to the veteran southpaw.

More notes on the looming free-agent market for starting pitchers…

  • There’s a “strong” chance that the Giants will push to work out a multi-year deal to keep Kevin Gausman atop their rotation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants value the chemistry that was developed during this year’s postseason push and have interest in maintaining some continuity, which could lead them to explore reunions with any of Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already gone on record to call the rotation the team’s “number one priority” this offseason, no surprise given the impending free agencies of Gausman, DeSclafani, Wood and Johnny Cueto (whose $22MM club option will assuredly be bought out for $5MM). The Giants have about as much payroll flexibility as any team in baseball, giving Zaidi and his staff myriad options in rebuilding the rotation over the coming months. It certainly stands to reason they’ll be active in the market for Gausman, who has an even 3.00 ERA with stellar strikeout and walk numbers (30% and 6.5%, respectively) over 251 2/3 innings in black and orange since the start of 2020.
  • Gausman received a qualifying offer last winter, making him ineligible for another in his career. The Giants will have to decide whether to offer an $18.4MM QO to one or both of DeSclafani and Wood in the coming days, though. Grant Brisbee of the Athletic opines the club should offer a QO to DeSclafani based on the aforementioned rotation uncertainty and payroll flexibility. Signed to a bounceback deal last offseason following a poor 2020 with the Reds, DeSclafani made 31 starts and worked 167 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA/4.11 SIERA ball this past season. Brisbee doesn’t expect San Francisco to risk that lofty one-year sum on a QO for Wood, however. Also a low-cost flier last winter, Wood impressed with 138 2/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA/3.60 SIERA. Injuries limited the veteran southpaw to just 48 1/3 combined innings from 2019-20, though, and it remains to be seen how much of an effect durability concerns could have on Wood’s free agent market this time around.

Rockies’ Extension Offer To Jon Gray Was In $35-40MM Range

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Two weeks ago, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported that the Rockies had made an unsuccessful extension offer to Jon Gray. Nick Groke and Eno Sarris of the Athletic shed a little more light on that effort, reporting that Colorado made a three-year offer in the $35-40MM range.

With extension overtures rejected, Gray is now set to hit the open market once the World Series wraps up this week. Groke and Sarris write that the Rox are likely to issue him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, which would entitle the club to draft pick compensation were he to sign elsewhere. Qualified free agents have ten days to decide whether to accept or reject the QO, so Gray and his representatives at CAA Sports will have some time to gauge interest before making the call on whether to return to Denver for a strong one-year salary or reject in hopes of landing a stronger multi-year offer.

Gray will be one of the trickier evaluations for teams looking through the market for free agent starters. The right-hander has two seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA on his resume, no small feat for a pitcher who calls Coors Field home. Outside of a terrible eight-start showing during last year’s shortened season, Gray has regularly posted strikeout rates a tick or two above the league average for starters. He’s put up similarly solid walk and ground-ball marks in recent years, and his 2021 campaign was largely par for the course.

Over 149 frames, Gray pitched to a 4.59 ERA with a slightly above-average 24.4% strikeout percentage and a 9% walk rate that’s a bit north of the league mark. Gray’s 11% swinging strike rate was almost exactly league average, while his 48.4% grounder percentage was a few points above par. That’s solid mid-rotation production, and there’s an argument to be made that he could yet have untapped upside.

A former #3 overall draft choice, Gray averaged 94.9 MPH on his heater. He backs that up with a slider that typically generates plenty of swings and misses. Gray will be entering his age-30 season, so rival clubs will surely be intrigued about the potential that power arsenal could wield outside of the league’s toughest environment for pitchers.

That said, there’s an argument that Gray has been less adversely effected by Coors Field than most. As Groke and Sarris explore in a piece that’ll be of interest to Rockies’ fans or those more generally interested in pitching, Gray’s primary combination of a low-spin fastball and slider seems most resistant to high altitude’s impact on pitch movements. Like any Rockies’ pitcher, Gray still has to contend against a home park that props up fly ball distances and has an expansive outfield (thus increasing the rate of hits allowed on balls in play), but his results may not be as inflated by the environment as those of some of his teammates. His ERA at home this year (4.02) was more than a full run lower than his road mark (5.22), in fact, although his home/road strikeout and walk splits were virtually identical.

Teams will be tasked with placing Gray amongst the third tier of free agent starters. Eduardo Rodríguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Matz and Alex Wood are among the other mid-rotation options who’ll be available to clubs this winter. There figures to be quite a bit of variability among the league’s 30 clubs as to how they’d arrange that group on preference lists.

Of course, Gray could yet return to Colorado, whether by accepting a QO or agreeing to a multi-year free agent deal. Gray and the Rockies expressed mutual interest in an extension on multiple occasions over the past few months, and the front office didn’t move him at this past summer’s trade deadline. The Rox have already hammered out multi-year deals with rotation mate Antonio Senzatela (buying out his final two years of arbitration and extending their window of club control by an additional four seasons) and fellow impending free agent C.J. Cron. With the club planning to increase player payroll over the next two years, it stands to reason they’ll remain involved in the market for Gray as well.

Diamondbacks Hire Jeff Banister As Bench Coach

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The D-Backs announced they’ve hired Jeff Banister as bench coach. It’s the Snakes’ second key coaching addition in as many weeks, as Arizona recently hired Joe Mather as hitting coach.

Banister picked up one big league plate appearance with the 1991 Pirates, but he’s far better known for his post-playing accomplishments. He received his first professional managerial job at age 30, spending 1994-98 managing at the lower levels of the Pittsburgh farm system. Banister moved into a broader organizational role in 1998 and spent the next decade-plus as a major and minor league field coordinator before landing his first job on a big league staff as Clint Hurdle’s bench coach in 2010.

Over the next few seasons, Banister was frequently mentioned as a strong managerial candidate. That opportunity presented itself after the 2014 campaign, when the Rangers tabbed Banister to succeed Ron Washington. Texas was very successful over his first couple seasons, winning the AL West in both 2015 and 2016. Banister was rewarded with an AL Manager of the Year selection in his first year at the helm, but the success proved short-lived. The Rangers finished below .500 in both 2017 and 2018, and the club dismissed him towards the end of that latter season. All told, Texas went 325-313 (.509 winning percentage) in just under four years with Banister managing.

After spending a couple seasons back in the Pirates’ front office, Banister spent this past year as director of player development for the University of Northern Colorado. After one season in Greeley, he’ll return to a big league staff for the first time since being dismissed by the Rangers. The 57-year-old will be the top lieutenant for D-Backs’ skipper Torey Lovullo, who’s entering his sixth season leading the Arizona clubhouse.

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