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Astros’ Jake Meyers Has Injury Setback

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Though Jake Meyers was included on the Astros’ ALCS roster, he has yet to return to action since suffering a shoulder injury in Game 4 of the ALDS.  Fresh doubt has now been cast on Meyers’ status for the rest of the series and perhaps the rest of the postseason, as Houston manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that Meyers suffered a setback and “was actually worse” health-wise yesterday, following a few days of seemingly progressing towards a return.

Meyers made a leaping attempt at a Gavin Sheets home run in the second inning of the Astros’ ALDS clincher against the White Sox, and after colliding with the wall, Meyers left the field with obvious discomfort in his left arm.  The Astros felt good enough about Meyers’ condition to put him on the ALCS roster, except since his shoulder problem was a pre-existing injury, Baker noted that the team now isn’t allowed to replace Meyers for the remainder of this series with the Red Sox.

Removing a player mid-playoff series due to injury means that player is ineligible for the following round, though even if Houston advances past Boston to reach the World Series, it would seem like Meyers might not be an option for the Fall Classic roster.  In the interim, Baker may have one less position player at his disposal for the rest of the ALCS.

The center field tandem of Meyers and Chas McCormick was a boon for the Astros in the regular season, as the two rookies delivered very strong defense and solid (107 OPS+) offense after Myles Straw was dealt to the Indians at the trade deadline.  Jose Siri, another rookie, has assumed Meyers’ part-time duties, starting in center field both in Game 3 of the ALCS and in today’s Game 5.  To his credit, Siri also hit well over the first 49 plate appearances of his big league career, and Meyers’ sample size (163 PA in the majors) isn’t much larger.

Angels Part Ways With Scouting Director Matt Swanson

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The Angels are making a change at scouting director, as Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports that Matt Swanson has lost his job after five-plus years with the team.  Swanson’s replacement has yet to be named.

Originally hired in August 2016 by former Angels GM Billy Eppler, Swanson was tasked with rebuilding a minor league pipeline that was almost completely bereft of premium talent.  (In February 2016, Keith Law described the Angels’ collection of minor leaguers as “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen” in what was then Law’s eighth year of ranking the farm systems of all 30 teams.)  While there may have been basically nowhere to go but up, the Angels did upgrade their prospect depth through five years of Swanson’s drafts, highlighted by such names as Jo Adell, and current MLB.com top-100 prospects Reid Detmers and Sam Bachman.

Overall, however, Los Angeles has to get much improvement from its farm system.  Law’s preseason organization ranking from this year placed the Angels 23rd, and Baseball America’s midseason organizational ranking slotted them 25th (though Adell, Detmers, and Brandon Marsh all moving to the majors lowered the ranking).  To date, the Angels have had nine players from the 2017-21 drafts appear on the big league roster, though that low number isn’t necessarily unusual considering how recent these drafts were, how long it usually takes even blue-chip prospects to hone their skills for the majors, and the pandemic’s impact on the last two minor league seasons.

Given all these factors, it is perhaps unfair to point the finger squarely at Swanson for the Angels’ lack of young impact players in recent years (and, the highly-touted Adell could certainly still blossom).  It could be that general manager Perry Minasian wants his own hire in place as scouting director, or it might stem from an overall change in direction in how the organization has been drafting.  As Law noted in his 2021 organizational rankings, “if we were just ranking systems by tools…the Angels would be in the top half, maybe the top 10.  They love athletes, targeting them in the draft and on the international market, but developing those guys when their baseball skill level starts out low is a huge challenge for any organization.”

The 39-year-old Swanson is himself a former player, who pitched in the Pirates’ farm system from 2005-07 before joining the Cardinals as a scout and crosschecker for the Midwest region from 2008-16.

Free Agent Notes: Shortstops, Belt, Seager, Hernandez

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After asking 11 rival evaluators to rate the offseason’s top five free agent shortstops on a 1-5 grading scale, ESPN’s Buster Olney reveals the final order was Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez, with Seager claiming 50 of a possible 55 points.  Seager received six of the first-place votes (Correa received four and Semien one) due to his age and big left-handed bat, even though there was some question about his durability and how long he’ll be able to remain at the shortstop position.

All five players carry their share of question marks, which is what will make the shortstop market so fascinating to observe as the many teams in need of shortstop (and overall infield) help will be competing for these names at the top of the market.  Unsurprisingly, the 11 evaluators cite the Yankees and Tigers as likely to land one of the big five shortstops, and teams like the Mariners, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs, and Angels could all be in the mix.  In an additional detail on Semien, there is some feeling that he would like to remain with the Blue Jays, while other evaluators believe the Bay Area native would prefer to play with a team closer to home.

More on other pending or possible free agents…

  • Brandon Belt and the Giants had some in-season negotiations about a contract extension, and while “talks didn’t go anywhere,” NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic feels there is enough mutual interest between the two sides that Belt will return to San Francisco in 2022 and beyond.  Though Belt turns 34 in April and battled multiple injuries, he has also been hitting at the highest level of his career — Belt has hit .285/.393/.595 with 38 home runs over 560 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.  The Giants have already worked out an extension with the other member of “the Brandons,” locking up Brandon Crawford to a new two-year deal back in August.
  • “The ship has sailed” on Kyle Seager returning to the Mariners, The Athletic’s Corey Brock opines as part of a reader mailbag.  Brock feels both the team and the veteran third baseman are ready to move on, seemingly precluding any chance of either the M’s exercising their $20MM club option on Seager for 2022, or Seager being open to re-signing with Seattle at a lower price.  Seager seemed to hint at a departure a few weeks ago, when he said that he hadn’t heard anything from the team about the option, and also noted that he hadn’t personally spoken with GM Jerry DiPoto in several years.
  • Speaking of contract options, The Athletic’s James Fegan predicts the White Sox will decline their $6MM club option on Cesar Hernandez for next season.  Hernandez hit only .232/.309/.299 in 217 PA after being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline, so Fegan believes the Sox will be looking to upgrade at the keystone, rather than just retain Hernandez or hand the position to some combination of Leury Garcia, Danny Mendick or Romy Gonzalez.  More offensive production will of course be welcome, but the White Sox might also prioritize a strong second base glove as a way of improving the club’s run-prevention efforts.

Blue Jays Designate Jacob Barnes For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Jacob Barnes has been designated for assignment (hat tip to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).  The move creates roster space so Joakim Soria could be reinstated from the COVID-related injury list, a necessary procedural transaction before Soria hits the free agent market.

Toronto acquired Barnes from the Mets in June, as the Blue Jays were eager to find reinforcements for their struggling bullpen.  Barnes didn’t provide many answers, as he posted a 6.30 ERA over only 10 innings with the Jays before being DFA’ed in July and then outrighted off the 40-man roster in August.

While Barnes did have a 30.6% strikeout rate during his brief time with the Jays, he didn’t help his cause by posting a 12.2% walk rate — a reawakening of the control problems that have occasionally hampered Barnes at both the major and minor league levels over the last few years, though his career walk numbers are respectable.  Barnes did only allow one homer in a Blue Jays uniform, after surrendering six home runs over just 18 2/3 frames with the Mets earlier this season.

After posting some solid numbers out of the Brewers’ bullpen from 2016-18, Barnes has since posted a 6.58 ERA over 79 1/3 innings for five different teams over the last three seasons.  As per Statcast, Barnes has continued to post solidly above-average fastball spin rates throughout his career, but while his four-seam fastball continues to get positive results, he hasn’t had much success with secondary offerings.

Barnes is eligible for arbitration this winter, projected for a $1.2MM salary.  The DFA essentially looks like an early non-tender for the Jays, and since Barnes has over three years of MLB service time and has already been outrighted once this season, he can opt for free agency now rather than accept another outright assignment.

Cubs Assistant GM Randy Bush Moves To Advisor Role

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Longtime Cubs assistant general manager Randy Bush is leaving his position to become a senior advisor for the team’s baseball operations department, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reports.  Bush has been Chicago’s assistant GM since December 2006, and briefly served as the interim GM in between Jim Hendry’s firing in August 2011 and Theo Epstein’s hiring in the 2011-12 offseason.

Bush stayed with the team throughout Epstein’s tenure, and though Jed Hoyer’s first season as the Cubs’ president of baseball operations.  The role change has been in the works since August, when Bush let Hoyer know he wasn’t planning to return as assistant GM, so this advisory position will allow Bush to spend more time with his family while working mostly remotely from his Jacksonville home.

“It’s just been an awesome chapter in my baseball career.  Working with great people here, and the things we’ve accomplished, it’s just been a ball,” Bush said.  “With all that being said, I’m looking forward to this next chapter in my career and my life.  I honestly feel like the luckiest guy in the world with all the blessings that I’ve had in my whole baseball life.  It’s been unbelievable.”

Minnesota fans will remember Bush from his 12 seasons with the Twins from 1982-1993, as Bush saw regular duty as an outfielder and first baseman over 1219 career MLB games and was a member of the Twins’ two World Series championship teams.  He also worked as the head baseball coach at the University of New Orleans from 2000-05 before joining the Cubs organization as a special assistant and advance scout.

Latest On Mets’ Front Office Search

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As the Mets continue to look for a new president of baseball operations, there is still some uncertainty about the current role of team president Sandy Alderson.  When Alderson was brought back to the Mets by new owner Steve Cohen in September 2020, the idea was for Alderson to focus on the team’s business operations once a new baseball ops head was eventually hired.  That is still the Mets’ plan now, though their initial efforts to hire a big name PBO have thus far not panned out, as Billy Beane and Theo Epstein each removed themselves from consideration, and the Brewers denied the Mets permission to speak with David Stearns.

That leaves the Mets perhaps looking at hiring a first-time president of baseball operations, which could create an unusual dynamic considering Alderson’s continued presence and Cohen’s propensity for public criticism of his team.  As Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic puts it, “Who, some wonder, would really hold the power to make organizational decisions?”

Obviously the owner has the ultimate final word in any organization, though most team presidents of business operations don’t have a long history (as Alderson does) of running a Major League front office.  The presence of Bryn Alderson, Sandy’s son, adds another wrinkle, as the younger Alderson and Ian Levin were each promoted to assistant GM roles back in July.  It isn’t uncommon for assistant general managers to remain with a team through the tenures of multiple general managers or PBOs, but it does present a bit of an unusual dynamic for a newly-hired president of baseball ops to be essentially slotted between a father and son on the organizational depth chart.

The elder Alderson tells Ghiroli that Bryn Alderson’s presence “will not be an issue, I can assure you,” to the autonomy of any new hire.  As Ghiroli notes, however, the likes of a Beane or an Epstein would require complete authority over all baseball-related matters before taking the job, while “a first-time president may not feel as comfortable” insisting on such free reign.  It would also seem like Alderson would naturally have some level of unofficial mentorship over an executive taking over a front office for the first time, to “phase the new hire into the role.”

On the other end of the spectrum, however, is the question about how much influence Alderson might still have.  The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes that some around baseball are wondering if “Alderson is empowered to hire or even identify candidates to become the next leader of the Mets front office or if Cohen has essentially pushed aside his team president and is leading the search.”  Considering the controversy associated with Alderson’s two hires as general manager (Jared Porter and Zack Scott), it could be that Cohen wants to personally handle the process.

Adding another name to the list of possible candidates, Puma writes that Rays VP of baseball development Peter Bendix is “potentially on the radar.”  Bendix has been with the Rays since 2009, beginning as an intern and working his way up to his current role, which he has held for the last two seasons.  Given Tampa Bay’s success at finding and developing talent on a limited budget, it isn’t surprising that Rays executives have been considered for many of the front office vacancies around baseball in recent years, with Andrew Friedman (Dodgers), Chaim Bloom (Red Sox) and James Click (Astros) all running teams still in contention for this year’s World Series.

Latest On Mets, Javier Baez

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The Mets stumbled down the stretch, dropping out of the playoff race with a disappointing final couple of months. That wasn’t the fault of their marquee trade deadline acquisition, though, as Javier Báez lived up to expectations. Acquired from the Cubs on deadline day, Báez hit a fantastic .299/.371/.515 with nine homers in 186 plate appearances for the Mets.

Báez seemingly made a strong impression in his couple of months in the organization, and Andy Martino of SNY suggests there’s a legitimate possibility he and the club agree to a long-term deal relatively early into the offseason, although he cautions that the club has not yet put forth a formal extension offer. A return to the Mets would mean Báez moving permanently to second base, as Francisco Lindor already has shortstop accounted for in Flushing for the next decade.

This summer, Báez already showed some willingness to move off shortstop in deference to Lindor. While he started his Mets’ tenure at short while Lindor was recovering from an oblique issue, Báez slid over to the keystone for the season’s final five weeks. Assuming he’s willing to play second base regularly moving forward, he’d likely be a plus defender at the position who’s more than capable of sliding back over to shortstop if injuries and/or rest days necessitate.

An early-offseason strike of this magnitude by the Mets would be quite a surprise, since the club’s new president of baseball operations is yet to be determined. Signing a marquee free agent to a significant contract before or almost immediately after the hiring of the team’s new baseball operations leader would be an odd decision, but Martino writes that Báez has commanded the respect of owner Steve Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson.

Not only were Mets’ higher-ups impressed by Báez’s performance, according to Martino, they were also struck by his accountability for the now-infamous “thumbs down” saga. With the team reeling after the trade deadline, discontentment mounted and the Mets often faced plenty of criticism from their own fans. In response, some Mets players — Báez included — used a “thumbs down” celebration after certain plays to symbolically return the boos to their own fanbase. The behavior led to a stern rebuke from Alderson and a needless controversy, but Martino writes that Báez’s willingness to accept responsibility for the situation allowed the sides to put the matter behind them.

Celebration controversy aside, it’s easy to understand why Báez’s play apparently made such a strong impression on Cohen and Alderson. At his best, he’s a high-end defensive middle infielder and impact power threat, to say nothing of the obvious energy and flair he brings to an organization. In three of the past four seasons, Báez has posted above-average marks on both sides of the ball en route to campaigns valued at around four or five wins above replacement by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

That impact potential makes Báez one of the key members of this offseason’s famously star-studded shortstop class. Still, he’s not in position to land the top-of-the-market deals of players like Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, as Báez has been prone to bouts of offensive inconsistency. His numbers in last year’s shortened season (.203/.238/.360 over 235 plate appearances) were awful. And while Báez finished this past season on a tear, he wasn’t great over the year’s first few months.

In 361 plate appearances with the Cubs prior to being traded, the 28-year-old (29 in December) hit .248/.292/.484. That’s roughly league average production, by measure of wRC+, with Báez’s impact power largely offset by a poor on-base percentage. In spite of his strong finish, it’s fair to question how reliably teams can count on Báez reaching base moving forward. He struck out in 33.6% of his plate appearances in 2021 while walking just 5.1% of the time, an essentially unparalleled combination for an above-average hitter. And over the past two seasons, no other hitter (minimum 500 plate appearances) has swung and missed at a higher percentage of pitches seen.

Báez’s somewhat enigmatic combination of elite power/glovework and perhaps the game’s most overaggressive approach makes him one of the most difficult players on the market to value. Martino suggests he could land a guarantee in the $150MM — $200MM range, although it’d frankly register as a surprise if any team were willing to commit that heavily to a player with such significant swing-and-miss concerns. Even if a $150MM+ deal for Báez would appear unlikely, it seems more plausible teams could push the bidding up over $100MM. That’d still be a significant investment, whether it comes from the Mets or another club.

The crosstown Yankees could be a fit, as they’re generally expected to be involved in the bidding for some of the top free agent shortstops. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman flatly acknowledged this afternoon the club “(has) to address” the position in some manner this winter, with former shortstop Gleyber Torres now viewed as a second baseman. Martino reports the Yankees were “aggressive” in their pursuit of Báez via trade before he landed with the Mets this summer, and there’d certainly be some merit to considering another run at him in free agency over the coming weeks and months.

Jordan Luplow Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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Rays first baseman and outfielder Jordan Luplow successfully underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle today, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa Bay expects Luplow to be recovered in time for the start of 2022 Spring Training.

The Rays acquired Luplow along with reliever DJ Johnson in a midseason deal with Cleveland to deepen their bench down the stretch. Luplow’s health status at the time hinted at this offseason procedure, as he was rehabbing in the minors with a left ankle sprain when the trade took place.

The trade proved fruitful, but perhaps in unexpected ways for the playoff contending Rays. Luplow, who to this point in his Major League career only appeared in the three outfield positions and DH, primarily manned first base and garnered positive marks there for the Rays. His resume continued to expand as he also went on to make cameos at second and third base, in addition to contributing an inning of one-run ball as a pitcher.

Further, the right-handed Luplow made his mark in the Cleveland organization for being a lefty masher, sporting an OPS of .899 when holding the platoon advantage in his career. In both Tampa and the year on the whole, however, Luplow’s skillset reversed, as he pulverized right-handed pitching but stumbled to a sub-.700 OPS against lefties. The resulting overall .202/.326/.454 slash on the year was good for an OPS+ of 115 when factoring in Luplow’s pitcher-friendly home parks, but newfound success against same-handed pitchers may add a wrinkle to how the team evaluates him moving forward.

Pete Kozma Elects Free Agency

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7:58 pm: Kozma has officially elected free agency, per the team.

11:38 am: The A’s have outrighted veteran infielder Pete Kozma off their 40-man roster, according to MLB.com’s transactions log. Oakland has yet to formally announce the move, but Kozma will become a free agent now that he’s gone unclaimed on waivers.

Kozma, 33, was added to the Athletics’ 40-man roster for the season’s final weekend after Elvis Andrus suffered a season-ending leg fracture. He went 1-for-11 during that Oakland cameo — his first big league action since the 2018 season in Detroit. The rest of Kozma’s season was spent with Triple-A Las Vegas, where he batted .244/.307/.337 in 500 plate appearances and collected the 1000th hit of his minor league career.

Best known for his time with the Cardinals, Kozma was the primary for St. Louis in 2013 when the Cards fell to the Red Sox in the World Series. He hit just .217/.275/.273 in 448 plate appearances that season but graded out as a plus defensive infielder on a Cardinals staff that had the game’s second-highest ground-ball percentage.

That was the only season in which Kozma ever logged even semi-regular action. His 111 plate appearances with the 2015 Cardinals are the second-highest mark he’s reached in any of his eight big league seasons. In 825 plate appearances at the Major League level, Kozma is a .213/.276/.288 hitter. He’s a lifetime .235/.305/.340 hitter in the minors and could latch on as a depth option somewhere else in minor league free agency.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds were competitive in 2021 but ultimately came up short of a Wild Card berth. Cincinnati now faces the potential departure of one of their middle-of-the-order hitters, which would leave general manager Nick Krall needing to find some other way to bolster the offense while restructuring a bullpen that was among the league’s worst in 2021. There’s a strong core already in place, but the pressure to supplement it effectively continues to build as the club’s window of contractual control over some key players gets smaller.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $57MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B: $38MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $35MM through 2024 (includes buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Sonny Gray, RHP: $10.667MM through 2022 (no buyout on 2023 club option)
  • Shogo Akiyama, CF: $8MM through 2022

Players With Contractual Options

  • Nick Castellanos, RF: Can opt out of contract’s remaining two years and $34MM
  • Wade Miley: LHP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Tucker Barnhart, C: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: $2.3MM player option; if Wilson declines, Cincinnati holds a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout)

Total 2022 commitments (assuming Castellanos opts out and Wilson exercises player option): $90.467MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Garrett

Free Agents

The Reds hung around the postseason picture all season, even looking like Wild Card favorites into September. The Cardinals streaked to the National League’s final postseason spot near the end of the year, though, leaving the Reds on the outside looking in for the seventh time in the past eight years.

Cincinnati already made one key decision, signing manager David Bell to a two-year contract extension last month. Bell has been at the helm for three seasons of generally average play, but the front office was evidently pleased enough with his locker room presence and decision-making to give him some security moving forward.

With Bell’s status now certain, Krall and his staff can turn their full focus towards the roster. Nick Castellanos is all but certain to exercise his opt-out clause and test free agency, where he’d be a strong candidate to land a $100+MM deal. Going to nine figures wouldn’t be totally unprecedented for the Reds, but it would require a sharp turnaround from their most recent spending habits.

The Reds were among the most active teams in cutting costs last winter on the heels of a season with no gate revenue. Cincinnati traded away one of the game’s best relievers, Raisel Iglesias, in a move that amounted to little more than a salary dump. They sat out the offseason shortstop market and entered the year running an ill-advised experiment with Eugenio Suárez at short. And there were rumblings last winter about the Reds considering moving some of their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers, although there’s no indication such talks ever got particularly far.

It seems reasonable to expect owner Bob Castellini to greenlight more spending this offseason after a comparatively normal campaign. There’s a line between not further slashing payroll and winning the bidding on a top free agent, though. Even if Castellini signs off on a payroll near 2019’s franchise-record $149MM level — a significant uptick over this past season’s $132MM mark — retaining Castellanos while adequately addressing the roster’s other deficiencies could be a challenge.

Assuming Justin Wilson exercises his player option and Castellanos opts out, the Reds will enter the winter with a little more than $90MM on the books, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Exercising Wade Miley’s $10MM club option would push that total near nine figures. Cincinnati could buy Miley out and reallocate that money, but that’d require parting ways with a pitcher who quietly tossed 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball this past season despite playing his home games in one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly environments.

Exercising Miley’s option and then putting him on the trade market could be something of a middle ground — allowing the front office to recoup some talent without taking on additional salary. Even in that instance, the Reds would be moving on from a highly affordable deal for a key member of the rotation, though. The most likely outcome still seems to be Cincinnati exercising the option and bringing Miley back, but that’d seem to further decrease the chances of a Castellanos return.

The Reds also have to make a $7MM decision on longtime catcher Tucker Barnhart. The 30-year-old is a career-long member of the organization who’s a generally capable backstop, but rookie Tyler Stephenson already looks like one of the better offensive catchers in baseball. It seems likely they’ll pay Barnhart a $500K buyout instead of exercising his $7.5MM club option. That’d give Stephenson the primary job, although doing so probably requires bringing in a cheaper veteran backup this offseason.

Elsewhere on the diamond, Jesse Winker has one corner outfield spot locked down after a second consecutive huge season. There’s no longer much doubt that Winker is one of the game’s best hitters, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the front office kicks around the possibility of an extension. Winker is under control via arbitration for two more seasons. Projected for a solid $6.8MM salary already, he might not feel pressured into considering a below-market extension at this point. Still, there’s little harm for Cincinnati in at least gauging his asking price on a potential deal.

The rest of the outfield would be an open question if Castellanos opts out, as would the potential designated hitter if the position comes to the National League in collective bargaining this winter. None of Aristides Aquino, Shogo Akiyama nor Nick Senzel look like slam-dunk regulars going into 2022. Tyler Naquin probably did enough this season to lock down a spot somewhere alongside Winker, but either of center or right field (with Naquin manning the other position) would be an area of need.

The free agent center field market is barren behind Starling Marte and utilityman Chris Taylor, both of whom might price themselves out of the bidding for Cincinnati. Mark Canha could be a lower-cost alternative to man right, while Jorge Soler offers a broadly similar skillset to Castellanos (strong exit velocities with below-average defense) for cheaper, albeit with much less consistency at the plate. Avisaíl García, Joc Pederson and Kole Calhoun are among the other alternatives who could be available on the open market.

The outfield could be in line for some turnover, but Cincinnati could be content to fill next year’s infield internally. Franchise icon Joey Votto is locked into the middle of the order following an otherworldly second half. Jonathan India should probably win the National League’s Rookie of the Year award after hitting .269/.376/.459 to seize the second base job.

The Suárez shortstop experiment fell flat, but Kyle Farmer quietly stabilized the position with a nice season after taking over in May. A former catcher, Farmer adapted surprisingly well to shortstop and hit a fine .263/.316/.416 over the course of 529 plate appearances. He’s a 31-year-old utilityman who entered the 2021 campaign with a career .242/.297/.370 slash line, so the front office probably wouldn’t be entirely enthused to hand him the job again heading into 2022. They needn’t do that, though, since top prospect José Barrero looks poised to run with the position at some point.

Barrero hasn’t yet done much at the big league level, but he’s coming off a .306/.392/.592 showing in Triple-A. Baseball America slotted him as the top prospect in the Cincinnati farm system midseason, and the 23-year-old is widely expected to be a fixture in the dirt at Great American Ball Park in the not too distant future. Farmer’s quiet stability gives the Reds some leeway to be patient, but he could easily slide back into a utility role if Barrero begins to translate his immense talent into big league productivity.

For the first time in five years, third base looks like a question mark for Cincinnati. Not only did Suárez struggle defensively in his early-season move to shortstop, his offensive production cratered. Suárez hit 31 home runs, but it came with his worst walk rate since 2016 (9.8%) and a meager .198 batting average. While he still has the potential to do damage in any given at-bat, Suárez’s offensive consistency has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, and the Reds began to curtail his playing time later in the year.

There’s a case for the Reds to look for an upgrade at third base, but that’d require pouring even more resources into a position where the club already has Suárez and Mike Moustakas on significant contracts. Moustakas will be looking for a bounceback season of his own after struggling to a career-worst .208/.282/.372 showing while being obviously hampered by a foot injury. It’s not an enviable position to be in, but the Reds seem likely to run things back with Suárez and Moustakas in hopes that at least one can regain some of his prior form. The front office certainly didn’t envision a Suárez/Moustakas platoon when signing those players to long-term deals, but that might be the best option for Bell to get production from that position moving forward.

The front office might also feel their work in the rotation is already done, particularly if they exercise Miley’s option. Luis Castillo rebounded from an awful first two months to post a characteristically strong second half. Sonny Gray had his third consecutive solid season after coming over from the Yankees during the 2018-19 offseason. Tyler Mahle is one of the better young pitchers around the league, and Miley’s coming off a very good season as mentioned.

The Reds could probably do better than Vladimir Gutierrez in the final spot, but top pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are on the doorstep of the big leagues and could be factors themselves next year. Cincinnati might look to add a low-cost innings eating type at the back end — especially if Miley ends up elsewhere — but the core of a potential playoff rotation is already in place.

A trade involving Gray or Castillo can’t be completely ruled out, since the club reportedly fielded offers on both players last offseason. Gray will make just under $11MM next season, while Castillo is projected for a $7.6MM arbitration salary. Both pitchers are under team control through 2023.

Cincinnati is looking to compete immediately, making a Gray or Castillo deal still seem unlikely. Krall downplayed the importance of trade talks involving their top pitchers last winter, characterizing those discussions as a matter of due diligence. More conversations of that nature will surely take place in the coming months, but there’s no pressing need for the Reds to force a trade involving either player.

The biggest priority for the Reds this offseason — aside from retaining or replacing Castellanos — has to be revamping the bullpen. Reds’ relievers were among the worst in the league at preventing runs last season, largely due to walk and home run issues. There’s a strong case, in fact, that the bullpen was the biggest reason they missed the playoffs.

Even after adjusting for park effects, the Reds outhit the Cardinals in 2021. The two teams’ respective rotation ERA’s (4.01 for St. Louis, 4.03 for Cincinnati) were almost identical. The biggest separator between the Reds and the NL’s final playoff team was a gap of more than a full run in ERA (3.97 versus 4.99) from the relief corps.

Making matters worse, Cincinnati’s best reliever, Tejay Antone, will probably miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Michael Lorenzen is set to hit free agency, as is deadline pickup Mychal Givens. The Reds can take a broad approach to talent acquisition, scouring the waiver wire and non-tender markets for relievers they like. But it’d be a surprise if they didn’t also add at least one obvious upgrade to the late innings mix.

To their credit, Cincinnati already did some of the bullpen heavy lifting at the trade deadline, picking up Luis Cessa and Wilson from the Yankees. They’re both likely to return, joining Art Warren and Lucas Sims as the top internal options. That still leaves some high-leverage innings to be shouldered though.

Ironically enough, Iglesias is easily the top free agent reliever available. Signing him is likely to cost a hefty three-plus year salary and potentially a draft choice, should the Angels make him a qualifying offer. It’d be a shock to see the Reds meet that asking price just twelve months after trading him away. Instead, they’ll look at least a tier down.

Kendall Graveman and Kenley Jansen might still prove too pricey for the Reds’ liking. The third tier of relievers — which includes players like Corey Knebel, Héctor Neris and Jeurys Familia — could still offer some much-needed help. If Cincinnati looks for a southpaw to pair with Wilson, Aaron Loup, Andrew Chafin and old friend Brooks Raley should be available without coming at prohibitive costs. The Reds could look for creative ways to bring in a controllable reliever via trade as well, just as they did this summer with the Cessa pickup.

Bullpens are often highly volatile, and it’s not hard to envision the Reds constructing a passable relief corps by hitting on just one or two offseason additions. But that’ll require identifying a few key targets from a group of pitchers that (Iglesias and Graveman aside) all come with their own question marks. Krall and his staff have surely already begun to pore over the possibilities, but any bullpen restructuring requires both an adept talent acquisition process and some element of luck.

If Castellanos leaves, the front office will need to figure out how to replace most of his middle-of-the-order production at a lower cost. They might very well have to bank on a repeat of last season’s marvelous production from Votto and a bounceback from either of Suárez or Moustakas. And they’ll no doubt have to hit on an addition or two to the late innings to fix a bullpen that proved untenable in 2021.

None of that is impossible, and the Reds’ rotation and handful of high-end position players gives them a contending core around which to build. There’s not much margin for error for Krall and his group this winter, though, and a bad start to next season would intensify rumors about potential trades involving Gray, Castillo and Winker, each of whom has a dwindling window of remaining team control.

The Reds have a real chance to be competitive in 2022, but they’re also in some danger of never realizing the full potential of this central group of players. How well they handle the potential loss of Castellanos and their hit rate on bullpen upgrades this offseason might ultimately determine whether this group can ever make a deep postseason run.

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