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NL West Notes: Christenson, Giants, Padres, Chapman, Soto, Kershaw

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Bob Melvin isn’t alone in going from the Padres to the Giants, as reports have suggested that San Diego third base coach Matt Williams will be joining Melvin in San Francisco.  Padres associate manager Ryan Christenson also looks to be on the move, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Christenson is expected to be a part of Melvin’s staff with the Giants.  Christenson has been Melvin’s second-in-command for the last six seasons, first as Melvin’s bench coach with the A’s from 2018-21 and then joining him with the Padres as a bench coach and associate manager for the last two seasons.

It isn’t known what coaching roles Christenson and Williams might take with the Giants, though most of the (very large) staff was expected to stay in place.  Bench coach Kai Correa is under contract for next season, though Baggarly writes that the Giants are likely to give him permission to interview with other teams, so this could provide an opening for Christenson to just assume the bench coach job.  Mark Hallberg is the third base coach, and since the team thought highly enough of Hallberg to interview him for the manager’s job, the Giants could probably try to find space for both Hallberg and Williams on the staff.

More from around the NL West…

  • Also from Baggarly’s piece, he suggests that Matt Chapman could be a good fit as a free agent target for the Giants this winter.  Of course, Chapman played under Melvin for years with the A’s, and beyond that recruiting link, adding Chapman would solidify a proper everyday player within a San Francisco lineup that has perhaps suffered for having too many platoon players and moving parts in recent years.  Chapman’s stellar glove would instantly upgrade the Giants’ struggling defense, and put less fielding pressure on Marco Luciano (possibly the next regular shortstop in the Bay).  J.D. Davis and possibly Casey Schmitt would then become trade chips for San Francisco if Chapman was installed at the hot corner.
  • With the Cubs and Yankees both already rumored to be eyeing Juan Soto this offseason, the trade speculation about the Padres star isn’t likely to end until he is either extended by San Diego, or until a trade actually happens.  Of course, it isn’t yet clear if the Padres are willing to move Soto at all this winter, and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner hears from a league source that if Soto is dealt, it might not happen until closer to the trade deadline.  Dealing Soto that late would naturally reduce the trade package San Diego would receive in return, yet for a Padres team desperate to contend in 2024, they might first want to see if they can get on track with Soto in the lineup before considering a deal.
  • Clayton Kershaw has one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers in each of the last two offseasons, and it has been widely known that Kershaw was choosing between only retirement, returning to Los Angeles, or possibly signing with his hometown Rangers.  While Kershaw opted to keep playing in L.A. on both occasions, Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times wonders if Texas’ breakout success now makes it a tougher decision for Kershaw, as the Rangers have now shown that their willingness to spend can translate to championship contention.

Athletics Outright Kirby Snead

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The A’s have outrighted Kirby Snead off their 40-man roster, as per the left-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Snead can’t reject the assignment to Triple-A since he doesn’t have enough Major League service time and because this is his first outright, but he is probably likely to become a minor league free agent.

Snead came to the Athletics as part of the Matt Chapman trade package from the Blue Jays in March 2022, and he has a 5.59 ERA over 56 1/3 relief innings for the A’s over his two seasons in the organization.  Only 11 2/3 of those innings came in 2023, as a shoulder sprain suffered during Spring Training kept him on the 60-day injured list until the end of June.  Snead didn’t appear in a game on the big league roster until August 1, and he made 15 appearances before being optioned to Triple-A in early September.

In the small sample size of 64 total MLB innings to his name, Snead has a 17.2% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, and 42.7% grounder rate.  These uninspiring numbers aren’t nearly as solid as Snead’s K% and groundball rates in the minors, and Snead’s 3.39 ERA over 273 1/3 minor league frames is also encouraging, even if the results haven’t been there with Triple-A Las Vegas in the last two seasons.  Snead’s control in particular has become an issue, calling back to some problems he had earlier in his career in issuing free passes.

Assuming Snead hits the open market, the 29-year-old will catch on somewhere with a team looking for left-handed relief depth, or Snead could perhaps be a candidate to explore his options with a team overseas.  A reunion with Oakland seems possible, as the A’s figure to be looking for inexpensive relief options and might pivot back to a familiar face.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies held 2-0 and 3-2 leads in the NLCS, but dropped Games 6 and 7 at home to fall short of another World Series appearance.  There is no doubt the Phils will reload for another championship run in 2024, yet they’ll have to address the possible departure of two long-time franchise staples.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2024 commitments: $179.9MM
Total long-term commitments: $724.73MM

Option Decisions

  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $13MM club option for 2024 ($1MM buyout; Phillies also hold $29MM worth of club options on Kingery for the 2025-26 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Only four of the 40 players drafted by the Phillies in the 2014 draft ended up reaching the majors, with Austin Davis making 136 appearances (50 for Philadelphia) and Brandon Leibrandt pitching in five games with the Marlins in 2020.  Fortunately for the Phils, their other two selections paid bigger dividends, as seventh overall pick Aaron Nola debuted barely a year after his draft date and became a front-of-the-rotation cornerstone.  Rhys Hoskins didn’t reach the Show until 2017, but he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in his debut season and provided six seasons of solid (126 wRC+) offense as the team’s regular first baseman, after an ill-advised experiment as a left fielder early in his career.

Both players are now set to hit the open market, and for Hoskins, he didn’t even get to properly enjoy what might be a final year in the City of Brotherly Love.  A torn left ACL during Spring Training cost Hoskins his entire season, and his subsequent efforts to possibly make it back for some DH duty during the World Series were cut short when the Phillies were ousted by the Diamondbacks in the NLCS.

One of Dave Dombrowski’s first major moves after being hired as president of baseball operations in late 2020 was to re-sign J.T. Realmuto in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason.  So, Dombrowski and the Philadelphia organization in general aren’t afraid to bring back their own guys, even at a high price tag driven by the open market.  Re-signing Realmuto cost five years and $115.5MM, and it looks like it’ll take way more to bring Nola back into the fold, as reports have suggested that the two sides were far apart in previous extension talks.  The Phillies were reportedly looking to retain Nola for four or five more seasons, but the right-hander and his camp was aiming for an eight-year pact worth more than $200MM.

Nola is going to be one of the top pitchers available this winter, and even with the price of pitching always high on the free agent market, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to approach the $200MM threshold.  Nola doesn’t turn 31 until June and he has a long track record of durability, plus 2022 was arguably the best season of his career.  However, Nola was more good than great in 2023, as an inflated home run rate led to a 4.46 ERA over 193 2/3 innings, and his 25.5% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2016.

The Phillies will make re-signing Nola “our priority,” according to Dombrowski, so a reunion might well be coming.  Or, if the club has doubts about Nola’s production beyond his mid-30’s, the team might feel its free agent dollars are best spent elsewhere.  The question then becomes whether or not Philadelphia might make another rotation splash, especially with some other long-term questions surrounding Zack Wheeler’s future.

The 2024 rotation currently lines up as Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Wallker, Cristopher Sanchez, and potentially Matt Strahm as the fifth starter.  Strahm looked quite good as a fill-in starter early in the season before being moved back to the bullpen and continuing to excel in relief work.  Philadelphia could explore stretching out Strahm in Spring Training to give him a fuller look as a starting pitcher and let him compete for any possible open rotation job.  Top prospect Mick Abel figures to make his MLB debut sometime in 2024, and another top minor leaguer in Andrew Painter is likely out of next season’s plans entirely since he underwent Tommy John surgery last July.

It is perhaps worth mentioning the hard feelings that seem to have emerged with Walker and club management, as the right-hander has shown some public displeasure on social media over not being used during the playoffs.  This doesn’t necessarily suggest that Walker will be traded or anything, and a deal might be hard to find anyway.  Walker had a modest 4.38 ERA and some very lackluster secondary numbers over 172 2/3 innings in 2023, and he still has $54MM remaining on a contract signed just last winter.  Cooler heads might very well prevail over the course of the offseason, but this could perhaps be an under-the-radar situation to monitor on the trade front.

Of course, trading a starter isn’t likely to happen until the Phillies have figured out how to replace Nola.  If the righty doesn’t re-sign, the Phils could explore signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery as the team’s next long-term ace.  Wheeler is set for free agency himself next winter, and will still command another big payday beyond his age-34 season if he keeps pitching as well as he did in 2023.  The Phillies figure to discuss an extension with Wheeler this winter, and if he is amenable to a relatively short-term pact given his age, perhaps he might be the one who ends up with a new deal of four or five seasons.

Philadelphia doesn’t have the deepest farm system in the world, but with the team in clear win-now mode, Dombrowski could again dip into the minor league ranks to explore adding another arm.  Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes, or Shane Bieber are all one-year rentals and would be available at the right (hefty) price, while the more controllable starters on the trade market would come at an even steeper cost of talent.

The bullpen also needs some attention, as Craig Kimbrel is set to return to the open market after his one year as the Phillies’ closer.  Kimbrel pitched well for much of the season, but a pair of high-profile blowups during the NLCS cost Philadelphia two games and his closer’s role for the rest of the series.  While a small sample size, it does continue Kimbrel’s somewhat inconsistent play over the last three seasons, and the Phillies might not want to take a chance again if they have doubts over Kimbrel’s ability to perform in the playoff spotlight.

Jose Alvarado is the obvious internal name to become closer if Kimbrel isn’t re-signed, and if Orion Kerkering is ready for a bigger role in his first full MLB season, the Phillies might look towards only more mid-tier names in their offseason bullpen shopping.  Of course, with the team’s propensity for big-ticket moves, there will probably be some level of speculation linking Josh Hader to the Phils until Hader eventually picks his next team.

While Kimbrel, Hoskins, Nola, and Michael Lorenzen represent a decent chunk of money coming off the books, the Phillies already have (as per Roster Resource) roughly $212.3MM in actual dollars and a $228MM luxury tax number attached to their 2024 payroll.  Last season’s Opening Day payroll sat close to the $243MM mark, and with a tax number around $263MM — above the second tax tier, but under the $273MM threshold that would’ve triggered a ten-position drop for Philadelphia’s first pick in the 2024 draft.

It isn’t known exactly where managing partner John Middleton might draw the line on spending, but Middleton clearly has no issue in committing big money to keep the Phillies in contention.  After the last two seasons’ worth of close calls, Middleton might be even more willing to spend to add the final pieces to the championship puzzle.

To this end, the Phillies will at least check in on Shohei Ohtani out of pure due diligence if nothing else.  Obviously such a signing would be an imperfect fit within the Phils’ lineup, as Ohtani in the DH slot would lock in Bryce Harper at first base and Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into corner outfield duty.  But, since the Phillies are one of the organizations with deep enough pockets to meet Ohtani’s record-setting asking price, they make sense as a potential suitor for the two-way star this winter.

Accommodating Ohtani might be a reason for the Phillies to cost themselves some positional flexibility, yet doing the same to re-sign Hoskins might be another matter.  Hoskins is likely to just sign a one-year deal this winter as he attempts to prove himself healthy and worthy of a longer-term contract next offseason, so re-signing Hoskins wouldn’t represent a huge investment for Philadelphia.  The team might even issue Hoskins a qualifying offer, if they’re okay with paying Hoskins $20.5MM coming off a torn ACL since it’s hard to imagine the first baseman would turn down such a payday.  With Hoskins so likely to accept a QO, the Phillies might want to hold off on further clogging their first base/DH situation until they get a better read on Ohtani’s market.

Harper’s ability to handle first base gave the Phils more defensive flexibility last year, allowing for Schwarber to DH and for both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas to get more looks in the outfield.  Harper may also return to at least part-time work in his old right field position, now that he is further removed from his Tommy John surgery.  In short, keeping a first base-only player like Hoskins would limit what the Phillies could do around the diamond.  Defense continued to be a problem for the Phillies over the course of the 2023 season, and since the everyday lineup is already pretty set, adding a utility type instead of Hoskins would add more overall depth.

The relative stability of the starting lineup presents Dombrowski with an interesting challenge this winter.  Almost every team would love to have a core like Philadelphia’s star-laden lineup, and an argument can easily be made that the Phils should just run things back with the same group in 2024 and hope things can fully click in October.  “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” might apply here, except the NLCS might have revealed some cracks in that foundation.

For instance, could the Phillies explore trading either Castellanos or Alec Bohm?  Castellanos hit for more power and had a lot more strikeouts in 2023, but the two were similarly productive overall — Bohm had a 105 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR, while Castellanos had a 109 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR.  Offense was the backbone of those fWAR numbers, as Castellanos was again very subpar in right field while Bohm actually improved to above-average third base glovework in the views of the UZR/150 and OAA metrics, even if Defensive Runs Saved (-10) continued to dismiss his efforts.

Obviously, trading Bohm would be a lot simpler for the Phils from a salary perspective.  The former third overall pick is just entering his arbitration years and is controlled through 2026, while Castellanos’ contract entitles him to $60MM over that same timeframe.  Barring taking on another team’s undesirable contract, the Phillies would have to either eat money in a Castellanos trade or include some significant prospect capital to sweeten the pot, whereas a rival club might think Bohm could fully break out with a change of scenery.

Moving Castellanos would further help the Phillies’ defensive issues, as either Harper could just return to right field and a new first baseman (or a re-signed Hoskins) could join the fold, or Philadelphia could obtain a new corner outfielder altogether.  Likewise, trading Bohm could open up third base for a better defensive option and a more proven hitter.

This is all easier said than done, of course, and team chemistry elements must be considered beyond just a pure baseball fit.  However, Dombrowski has a long history of creative trades, whether it’s trading prospects for proven stars or even dealing an established big league player (i.e. Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes, or Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler) for another that may be a better fit for his team’s needs.  While the pitching staff will be the Phillies’ top priority this winter, not much can be ruled out when Dombrowski is making calls, Middleton is willing to write the checks, and the pressure to win is increasing after two near-misses.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Phillies-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Getting swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers brought a sour end to an otherwise very successful season in Baltimore.  The Orioles won 101 games to capture the AL East, and the best may be yet to come given all of the young talent still to emerge out of the loaded farm system.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $5MM
Total future commitments: $8MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The O’s turned the corner on their rebuild by winning 83 games in 2022, yet general manager Mike Elias has thus far taken a conservative response to his team’s breakout.  He still opted to sell at the 2022 trade deadline, yet the deals of Trey Mancini to the Astros and (especially) Jorge Lopez to the Twins now look quite shrewd in the bigger picture.  Elias then made mostly short-term moves last winter, adding Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens on one-year contracts and acquiring James McCann in a salary dump of a trade with the Mets.  Even at this past season’s trade deadline, with the Orioles posting one of baseball’s top records, Elias picked up the struggling Jack Flaherty rather than a more prominent starting pitcher.  As it turned out, Flaherty didn’t pitch well in Baltimore, and fell out of the rotation entirely by September.

The big question facing the Orioles this winter is simply, will Elias and team ownership get more aggressive in adding win-now pieces to what might be a burgeoning powerhouse?  Some caution was understandable after 2022 since Elias probably didn’t want to jump to conclusions that his team was ready to contend….yet a 101-win season now removes all doubt.

Baltimore’s rebuilding process led to a corresponding slash of spending, as the Orioles have been a bottom-four payroll team in each of the last five seasons.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll in 2023 was slightly under $61MM, and the second-lowest total of any team.  Based on their negligible long-term salary commitments and the projections of their arbitration-eligible players, the O’s have only $58.5MM lined up for their 2024 payroll, and even that number should be a bit smaller in the event of a few non-tenders from the arb class.

It’s worth remembering that during their last contention window in the mid-10s, the Orioles were regularly in the top half in league spending, and ranked as high as ninth in Opening Day payroll (a little under $147.7MM) heading into the 2016 season.  This doesn’t mean that the Orioles need to vault back up to that number over the course of one winter, but an argument can surely be made that Elias and the team have earned a larger investment in their on-field endeavors.

Unfortunately, ownership’s top priority right now might not be on the team itself.  The Orioles and the state of Maryland reached a “memorandum of understanding” in September that laid the groundwork for the O’s to remain in Baltimore for the next 30 years, in addition to a wider-ranging project that will see extra land surrounding Camden Yards be redeveloped into something of a ballpark village, akin to the Battery area adjacent to the Braves’ Truist Park.  While there seems to be an understanding in place between the team and civic officials that the deal will be completed soon, the fact remains that the agreement isn’t yet set in stone, even with the Orioles’ current least at Camden Yards expiring on December 31.

As such, it doesn’t seem like the player payroll will get any major boost until these future revenue streams have been firmly secured, or even until the revenues start rolling in for the team.  “I don’t think you should run losses.  I think you should live within your means and within your market,” club chairman/CEO John Angelos told the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner in August.  In regards to player salaries, Angelos explained “let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles.  You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200MM, that player $150MM, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively.  Now, are people going to come and pay that?….But really that’s just one team. What I’m really trying to think about is macro.”

Angelos’ interview quickly became infamous among Baltimore fans, and may have halted any speculation that the team might pursue contract extensions with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, or any other Orioles blue-chipper youngsters.  Or, that the O’s will make a big splash on a top-tier free agent this offseason as a veteran leader for its young core.  This doesn’t mean that the payroll won’t go up to some extent, as the Orioles did at least increase spending by around $17MM from 2022 to 2023.  But, if the front office is still being limited in what it can spend, Elias will have to get creative in adding some needed pieces to the roster.

The bright side for Elias is that his roster might already be pretty set.  The Austin Hays/Cedric Mullins/Anthony Santander outfield can return intact, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn can split first base and DH duties with O’Hearn chipping in as a corner outfielder, Rutschman is locked in at catcher, Henderson will play every day at either third base or shortstop, and some combination of Westburg, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo can handle second base and the other infield position that Henderson isn’t playing.

If this wasn’t enough, top prospects Heston Kjerstad, Joey Ortiz, and Colton Cowser all made their MLB debuts in 2023, and 2019 second-round pick Kyle Stowers is part of the outfield picture.  And if that wasn’t enough, the O’s also have Jackson Holliday (the top prospect in baseball) perhaps ready to make his debut as early as Opening Day, not to mention the likes of Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, and Jud Fabian also knocking on the door for big league playing time.

Not all of these prospects will pan out, of course, and different rival teams undoubtedly have their own varying opinions on minor leaguers throughout the Orioles’ farm system.  But, it isn’t a stretch to say that Baltimore has the prospect depth to get involved in talks about almost any available trade target in baseball, thus giving Elias a way to add premium talent without spending big on a notable free agent contract.  In fact, the O’s could even explore adding a high-priced trade target and have the other team cover most of the player’s salary, provided the Orioles are willing to up the amount of young talent they gave up in return.

Likewise, the Orioles’ faith in their youngsters could also turn some of their own more experienced players into trade chips.  If the O’s think Mayo is ready to contribute right away in the corner infield picture, they could look to trade Mountcastle to a team in need of first base help.  If Westburg is seen as an everyday player and Holliday is coming quickly, one of Urias or Mateo could be dealt to an infield-needy club.  Kjerstad or Cowser might be able to step into an outfield role, thus making Mullins, Hays, or (most likely of the group) Santander available.

Santander’s projected $12.7MM arbitration salary puts him on pace to be the team’s highest-paid player in 2024, and he is set to enter free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.  As productive a player as Santander still is, if Baltimore doesn’t see him as part of the future, now might be the time to sell.

With so much position-player depth still in the pipeline, odds are that the Orioles will be wary about adding an everyday-type of player in trades or free agency, as they either don’t want to block a prospect at a certain position, or give up assets to address a position when an internal answer might already be in place.  One possible exception might be Aaron Hicks, whose path to re-signing with Baltimore might only come if one of the Santander/Mullins/Hays trio is traded.  Since the Yankees are still footing the bill on Hicks’ contract for the next two seasons, Hicks can sign for just a minimum contract in free agency, thus giving him the freedom to pick any contender he wants for 2024 or beyond.  Considering how Hicks revived his career after joining the O’s this year, one would imagine he’d certainly have interest in a reunion, and the Orioles might also see Hicks as a needed veteran voice if another outfielder was indeed moved.

If Baltimore does make a blockbuster trade this winter, it is much more likely that it will involve adding a starting pitcher.  To be clear, the Orioles’ rotation is only a weak link in relative terms — as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently observed, the pitching staff improved as the season went on, which augurs well for 2024.  The highly-touted Rodriguez got better and better during his rookie year, the O’s will have a full year of John Means now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Kyle Bradish was quietly one of the better starters in all of baseball.

With this trio, the solid Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann, and DL Hall all battling for a fifth starter’s job, that’s not a bad amount of depth already in the fold.  And, of course, there’s some help on the farm, with Seth Johnson, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott all likely to be in line for MLB innings next season.  However, even with the caveat that the Rangers’ mighty lineup can make a lot of pitching staffs look bad, the playoffs indicated that Baltimore doesn’t yet have a true frontline rotation.

Re-signing Gibson wouldn’t be too expensive a gambit, yet it can be argued that a mid-rotation arm who can eat innings might not be a priority considering how the rest of the staff developed.  For a division winner looking to contend for a championship, the Orioles could aim higher at a true ace.  Signing a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Blake Snell in free agency doesn’t seem feasible given how the O’s don’t seem willing to spend at that level yet, but the trade market presents some interesting options.

Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber are widely seen as two of the winter’s prime candidates, as both pitchers are a year away from free agency.  Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder surgery might change the equation of the Brewers’ willingness to move Burnes, yet Milwaukee is always in need of the kind of controllable, MLB-ready young players that the Orioles can provide.  Bieber isn’t quite the clear-cut ace he was in his Cy Young-winning prime, yet he would be a nice addition to Baltimore’s rotation, and the Guardians are in sore need of hitting help (particularly in the outfield).  The question here would be how much would the Orioles be willing to give up for just one year of a pitcher’s services, if the O’s wouldn’t be open to re-signing either next offseason.

Tyler Glasnow, Zack Wheeler, and Max Fried are also pitchers slated for free agency after 2024, but they’re all less-likely fits for Baltimore.  While the Rays will probably be open to moving Glasnow’s $25MM salary, moving him to their chief division rival seems improbable.  The Phillies and Braves each have other rotation concerns this offseason that might preclude dealing an ace-level pitcher.

Moving onto more controllable arms, the Orioles still have lots of possibilities.  The Mariners would want the moon and stars to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, but Baltimore’s galaxy of elite prospects would get their attention.  The White Sox want to return to contention next year but if their plans change, Dylan Cease could be available.  The Tigers’ collection of young pitchers have been hampered by early-career injuries, but could be on Baltimore’s radar since Detroit needs some bats.  The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who just made their MLB debuts in 2023, and if L.A. can obtain a veteran arm or two to shore up its rotation, the Dodgers could then address their needs around the diamond by discussing a swap of young pitching for young hitting with the O’s.

Baltimore’s pitching search may also have to expand to the bullpen, now that Felix Bautista will miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.  The superstar closer was a huge part of the Orioles’ success, and there’s no easy replacement even if Yennier Cano (or Danny Coulombe or Bryan Baker) could step into the ninth-inning role in 2024.  Trading premium prospects for relief pitching doesn’t seem too likely, in part because Wells or Hall might stick in the bullpen if they aren’t needed for rotation work, and because Elias has been so adept at finding and developing relievers.

While that knack for finding hidden gems isn’t easily replicated, the Orioles are probably more likely to again target relievers who haven’t quite emerged at the MLB level yet, despite some quality stuff and upside.  The O’s made such an acquisition in landing Shintaro Fujinami from the Athletics back in July, and while Fujinami didn’t pitch great in Baltimore, the club might consider bringing him back on an inexpensive deal for a second look.

All in all, the Orioles figure to be involved in any number of trade rumors this winter, as rival clubs will undoubtedly be coming calling about their prospects and Elias will surely make some inquiries of his own.  The success of the rebuilding project seems to have outpaced Angelos’ readiness (or willingness) to start boosting payroll, yet there’s no easier path to greater revenues than a championship-level team.  A spending increase to even the $100MM mark would give Elias all the more flexibility to add what might only be some finishing touches on a World Series contender.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held an Orioles-centric chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Rob Manfred Discusses Eppler Investigation, Potential Rules Changes

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Rob Manfred spoke to reporters (including Evan Drellich of The Athletic) ahead of the World Series opener this evening. The conversation covered an array of topics regarding the game, including the ongoing investigation into former Mets GM Billy Eppler and potential future rule changes.

Manfred told reporters that the investigation into Eppler, which looks into allegations of improper injured list use, should be completed before the end of the calendar year. While Manfred makes clear the league is not currently aware of a more widespread issue beyond the Mets, he does note that he directed the league’s department of investigations to “figure out whether we have a bigger problem” regarding misuse of the injured list. While Manfred notes that the issue with the Mets isn’t “quite the same” as other issues the league has investigated that, in his words, “arguably affect the integrity of the game,” he still considers the alleged offense by the Mets to be one of significance, adding that the investigation is a high priority for the league.

Of course, so-called “phantom IL” stints have been commonplace in the league for decades, and have occurred on every team at one point or another, with some players even openly admitting that they aren’t actually injured while on the shelf. More nebulous diagnoses such as soreness or fatigue can be used by a club to offer a struggling player a physical and mental reset while clearing their roster spot for a period of time. While the practice is technically illegal, it’s not currently clear what specific injured list transactions are at issue that spurred the league to investigate Eppler and the Mets specifically for the relatively widespread practice.

Manfred also spoke about potential rule changes the league could see in the future. The 2023 season saw one of the more aggressive changes to the league’s rule set in recent years, as the league implemented a pitch clock, larger bases, and shift restrictions ahead of the campaign. Those changes have generally been well-received after their first season in use, and it appears the league could look to continue making rule adjustments. Specifically, Manfred acknowledged recent discourse around the league’s playoff format— which has seen six of the eight teams that secured a first-round bye over the last three seasons fail to win a series— has prompted the commissioner’s office to “discuss” possible changes, though he notes that he’s a fan of the playoffs as currently designed.

“My own view on this is that our teams play really hard all year long to get into the playoffs,” Manfred said, “But one of the greatest things about the playoffs in baseball is, anybody can win. …I don’t think what happened this year is all that out of line with history.”

Another change Manfred discussed was potentially lowering the maximum allowable number of pitchers on the active roster to 12. He noted that the 13 pitcher limit currently in place hasn’t “had the desired effect” of encouraging teams to push their starting pitchers to stay in the game longer. While the eight teams that saw their starting pitchers throw less than 800 innings this season is a noticeable drop from 12 in 2021, the last season before the current limit was introduced, it’s actually one more than in 2022 and the same number as 2019. Prior to 2019, only the 2018 Rays and the 2012 Rockies had gotten less than 800 innings out of their starting pitchers in a season this century.

Such a change, however, would not be on the table for the 2024 season. Manfred didn’t discuss potential rules changes for the 2024 season, though he did note that any changes would be on a smaller scale after the significant rules adjustments the sport experienced in 2023.

AL Central Notes: Counsell, Twins, Rogers

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The Guardians have secured permission to interview Brewers manager Craig Counsell, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Cleveland had previously been reported as requesting permission from Milwaukee to interview Counsell earlier this week. While it was unclear if the Brewers would grant that permission, it’s hardly a surprise that they did so after recently offering the Mets the same courtesy. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-respected managers in the game after piloting the Brewers to a 707-625 record during his nine-year tenure that’s included five postseason appearances in the past six seasons.

Just as Counsell has other suitors beyond Cleveland in Milwaukee and Queens, the Guardians also have options outside of Counsell as they look to replace Terry Francona in the dugout. Cubs bench coach Andy Green recently interviewed for the position, and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz have all also met with the Guardians regarding their managerial vacancy. Of that group, only Green has past experience as a big league manager aside from Counsell. While Counsell reportedly enters free agency hoping to move the ball forward for future managers around the game in terms of salary, that seems unlikely to preclude the Guardians from making a run at Counsell’s services, given Francona was the highest paid manager in the game this season, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that Francona made $4.5MM in 2023.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Despite not being part of the club’s starting lineup during their postseason run, veteran catcher Christian Vazquez figures to remain a significant part of the Twins in 2024, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. Per Nightengale, the team plans to offer roughly equal playing time to Vazquez and fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers behind the plate next year. Vazquez just wrapped up the first season of his three-year, $30MM deal with the club and suffered the worst offensive season of his career with a .223/.280/.318 slash line across 355 plate appearances. By contrast, Jeffers had a breakout season, slashing .276/.369/.490 in 335 trips to the plate. While Jeffers is clearly the stronger offensive option, Vazquez is regarded as an elite defensive catcher and Jeffers could feasibly see additional playing time at DH next year as a way to keep his bat in the lineup on days Vazquez is behind the plate.
  • The Tigers had another difficult season in 2023, posting a 78-84 record and finishing 9 games out of a postseason spot. That being said, one significant bright spot for the club this year was catcher Jake Rogers, who Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press indicates has already secured his role as the club’s top option behind the plate for 2024. Rogers improved on defense in 2023 to post framing numbers in line with other quality regulars at the position like Adley Rutschman and Alejandro Kirk while also slashing a respectable .221/.286/.444 with 21 home runs in just 365 trips to the plate. Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances in the majors this year, Rogers’s 97 wRC+ ties him with Mets rookie Francisco Alvarez for the 14th-best figure in the majors.

AL West Notes: A’s, Scherzer, Angels

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MLBPA executive director Tony Clark spoke to reporters (including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times) today prior to Game 1 of the World Series regarding the Athletics and their bid to relocate from Oakland to Las Vegas. With a relocation vote scheduled for the owner’s meetings in November, the process is moving forward with few roadblocks, though one major question still remains: where will the A’s play from 2025-27, after their lease at the Colliseum expires but before their ballpark is completed, which is expected in time for Opening Day 2028?

Any temporary stadium situation would require MLBPA approval, and Clark notes that there’s an “ongoing dialogue” between the players’ union and the league regarding an interim stadium, though he also noted nothing has been decided on that front. Among the ideas that have been floated publicly are the A’s playing in the ballpark of their Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas Aviators; the A’s sharing Oracle Park with the Giants; and an extension of the club’s lease in the Colliseum, though the latter seems particularly unlikely.

More from around the AL West…

  • Rangers ace Max Scherzer came off the injured list for the ALCS after missing more than a month with a teres major strain. In two appearances during the series, the veteran righty struggled, allowing seven runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. While it’s not exactly surprising for a pitcher to struggle after a layoff of over a month, Newsday’s David Lennon relays another potential explanation for Scherzer’s struggles during the series. Scherzer told reporters (including Lennon) yesterday that he was hampered by a cut on his thumb near the nail during both of his starts during the series. Scherzer added that he doesn’t expect the ailment to be an issue during the World Series. Though starters haven’t been announced beyond Game 2, Scherzer figures to line up for Game 3 of the World Series following Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery.
  • The Angels have parted ways with minor league pitching coordinator Buddy Carlyle, per Sam Blum of The Athletic. Carlyle, a right-hander who pitched in the majors in parts of nine seasons spanning 1999 to 2015, played for five major league clubs in addition to stints in the NPB and KBO. After retiring in 2015, Carlyle was hired by the Braves as a coaching assistant in charge of replay review before moving on to act as pitching coach for the Anaheim’s Double-A affiliate in Mobile. He moved with the team to the Rocket City Trash Pandas in his role as pitching coach before eventually being promoted to his most recent role. Carlyle’s departure makes for another coaching position the Angels will have to fill this offseason, with replacing recently-fired manager Phil Nevin standing as chief among those.

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Juan Soto

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The Cubs are reportedly among the teams that have interest in dealing for Padres superstar Juan Soto this offseason, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, who reports that Chicago will be “involved” in Soto’s market. It’s the second report this week to suggest a potential trade partner for the Padres in a Soto deal, as earlier reporting indicated that the Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding Soto’s availability.

Reports have indicated that the Padres will look to cut payroll this offseason by as much as $50MM. With key pieces of the club’s pitching staff like Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo likely ticketed for free agency this winter, that leaves the club minimal room to either re-sign or replace those arms as they look to bounce back from a difficult 2023 campaign that saw them miss the postseason with an 82-80 record. A trade of Soto, who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to receive $33MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, would free up plenty of budget space for the Padres this offseason while also providing an influx of young talent that could impact the club in 2024 and beyond.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off a relatively surprising season that saw them exceed expectations. Rather than the expected sell-off that would have seen them deal Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, the Cubs picked up third baseman Jeimer Candelario and reliever Jose Cuas at the trade deadline and entered September in good shape to return to the postseason in a full campaign for the first time since 2018. Unfortunately, the club collapsed down the stretch with a 7-15 record over their final 22 games. Ultimately, the club finished with an 83-79 record, just one game back of the Diamondbacks and Marlins in the NL Wild Card race.

With Bellinger set to hit free agency this offseason, replacing the outfielders 134 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR figures to be a key focus of the offseason in Chicago. Soto, who slashed .275/.410/.519 with a 155 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in characteristically excellent 2023 campaign, would certainly fill the gap in the club’s offense left by Bellinger’s impending departure. That being said, Soto’s fit in Chicago is imperfect. Most notably, the club has both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked up to patrol the outfield corners through the 2026 campaign, complicating Soto’s positional fit on the team. While Happ has plenty of experience in center field, he made no appearances at the position in 2023 and played just 12 innings there in 2022; his last season as the club’s regular center fielder was in 2020, his age-25 campaign.

Of course, that’s to say nothing of Chicago’s outfield-heavy crop of prospect talent residing in the upper minors, headlined by top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his elite center field defense. Both Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario made their big league debuts this September, while Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Brennen Davis are also limited to the outfield. Of course, that logjam could be cleared by including one or more of the aforementioned prospects in the return package for Soto, though even in that case the Cubs would likely be forced to play Soto or Happ primarily at DH in 2023 upon the arrival of Crow-Armstrong.

Another potentially complicating factor for the Cubs is Soto’s pending free agency. With Soto set to hit the open market following the 2024 season and the Cubs still building up toward contention, it’s fair to wonder if a club better situated for a World Series run in 2024 would be more aggressive in looking to acquire Soto than the Cubs. Although an acquiring club could certainly look to extend Soto to a long-term deal after dealing for him, agent Scott Boras is known for encouraging his clients to establish their value on the open market and Soto previously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals earlier in his career.

The Cubs have rarely shown an appetite for megadeals at that level, as evidenced by last offseason’s signing of Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM deal in lieu of a pursuit of another top shortstop like Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts, both of whom signed commitments spanning a decade or longer. That said, it’s worth noting that Soto is far younger than the typical free agent. Swanson’s current deal in Chicago runs through his age-35 season; Soto could sign a 10-year deal next offseason and celebrate his 36th birthday during October of the final year of that contract.

Levine goes on to discuss a potential return package for Soto if the Padres and Cubs were to agree on a trade. He notes that utility player Christopher Morel has garnered trade interest from multiple clubs, and that sources indicated the Padres are particularly high on him. Morel hit well during his sophomore campaign in 2023, slashing .247/.313/.508 with 26 home runs. Morel primarily served as Chicago’s DH this season, though he logged time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop throughout the season. While Morel has proven playable all around the diamond, he’s appeared to be a below-average fielder at most of those positions. His best defensive position appears to be second base, though in Chicago he’s blocked at the keystone by 2023 Gold Glove finalist Nico Hoerner, who’s under contract through 2026. Between Morel’s bat, versatility, and pre-arbitration status, he figures to be a sought-after piece in trade discussions with the Cubs this offseason even in spite of his defensive shortcomings.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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The grand finale of the 2023 season is set to begin this evening, as the NL champion Diamondbacks head to Arlington to take on the AL champion Rangers for the first game of this year’s World Series.

Both teams have faced plenty of adversity en route to creating the third ever World Series matchup featuring two Wild Card teams, and they each did so via rather similar paths. After all, both clubs led their division for much of the first half of the season before losing their grip on the role in the second half and settling for a Wild Card spot. Since then, they both swept through the Wild Card series before delivering an additional sweep against a 100-win team in the Division Series. In the Championship Series, both teams were trailing after Game 5 but managed to come back with wins in both Game 6 and Game 7 to win their first pennant in over a decade.

It’s all the more impressive given that neither Texas nor Arizona were expected to be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season: the playoff odds over at Fangraphs gave the Rangers just a 37.7% chance to make the postseason with a 2% chance of a World Series run, while the Diamondbacks were afforded just 15.3% playoff odds and a 0.5% chance to make the World Series, a bottom-ten figure in the majors. What’s more, both clubs lost 100 games just two seasons ago, during the 2021 campaign.

That’s not to say these clubs are the same, of course. Despite their lack of recent postseason history, the Rangers look in many ways like the prototypical October team. They sport a fantastic front three for their starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi (2.42 ERA in four playoff appearances, 3.63 regular season ERA), Jordan Montgomery (2.16 ERA in five playoff appearances, 2.79 regular season ERA with Texas), and veteran ace Max Scherzer, who struggled in two ALCS starts coming back from a teres major strain but posted a 3.20 ERA during his time with the Rangers during the regular season.

If Scherzer has shaken off the rust enough to look like himself during the World Series, that’s a frightening three-headed monster for Arizona to have to overcome in this series. On the positional side, meanwhile, the Rangers feature a frightening lineup including stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, and power-hitting sluggers Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver. As strong as the lineup and rotation in Arlington may be, the club’s bullpen has been its Achilles’ heel this postseason as key relief arms like Jose Leclerc (4.35 postseason ERA) and Will Smith (9.00 postseason ERA) have struggled badly, though Cody Bradford and Aroldis Chapman have gotten stronger results, with a combined 1.50 ERA across 12 innings of work this postseason.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, appear as unlikely a pennant winner as they come. They finished with just an 84-78 record in the regular season and a run differential of -14, making them the first ever team to win the NL pennant with a negative run differential. The only other team to make the World Series with a negative run differential were the 1987 Twins, who went on to win it all in seven games over the Cardinals. With that being said, the Diamondbacks are hardly a pushover. Though the club’s .247/.317/.424 slash line this postseason pales in comparison to that of the Rangers, Arizona’s pitching staff has actually posted stronger numbers this October with a 3.31 ERA and 23.4% strikeout rate against Texas’s 3.67 ERA and 19.2% strikeout rate.

That strong pitching performance has come in spite of the struggles of team ace Zac Gallen, who posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP in 210 innings during the regular season but has scuffled to a 5.24 ERA in four postseason starts. Veteran righty Merrill Kelly (2.65 ERA in three postseason starts) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (2.70 ERA in four postseason starts) have managed to pick the club’s rotation up, however, an especially impressive feat considering Pfaadt’s lackluster regular season ERA of 5.72 across 96 innings. The back of the club’s bullpen has also been nothing short of stellar, with closer Paul Sewald and primary set-up man Kevin Ginkel combining for 17 scoreless innings of work this postseason. Right-hander Ryan Thompson has also impressed, with a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work throughout the playoffs.

On offense, franchise face Ketel Marte (164 wRC+ this postseason) has excelled, while rookies Corbin Carroll (130 postseason wRC+) and Gabriel Moreno (129 wRC+) have also impressed in their first tastes of postseason action. Strong as that trio’s performance may be, however, other key bats like Tommy Pham, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all struggled to this point in the postseason. That could give Texas the offensive edge unless some of the club’s colder bats manage to heat up during the series.

With Gallen and Eovaldi scheduled to face off later this evening for Game 1 of the World Series, which team do MLBTR readers think will take home the Commissioner’s Trophy this year? Have your say in the poll below.

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