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David McKinnon Signs With KBO’s Samsung Lions

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Former Angels and Athletics corner infielder David MacKinnon has signed with the Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization, the team announced. Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency tweets that MacKinnon is guaranteed $1MM on the deal — a $900K salary and $100K signing bonus.

MacKinnon, who turns 29 today, was a 32nd-round pick by the Angels in 2017 and made a brief big league debut in 2022, appearing in 22 games and taking 57 turns at the plate between Anaheim and Oakland. He posted a tepid .140/.228/.140 slash in that tiny sample, but MacKinnon has posted a hearty .294/.412/.464 slash in his minor league career — including a gaudy .318/.416/.585 output in his 2022 Triple-A run between the Angels and A’s organizations.

That minor league production led to interest from Japan last offseason, and MacKinnon spent the ’23 campaign playing for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions. He batted .259/.327/.401 and swatted 15 homers in 514 plate appearances there, and he’ll now jump to the KBO and continue to earn at a rate that vastly outpaces anything he’d earned as a late-round draft flier and career minor leaguer.

Athletics, Gerardo Reyes Agree To Minor League Deal

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The A’s signed right-handed reliever Gerardo Reyes to a minor league contract, per their transaction log at MLB.com. Presumably, he’ll be in big league camp this spring and vie for a spot in a wide-open bullpen mix.

Reyes, 30, has pitched 37 2/3 big league innings between the Padres and Angels, including 9 2/3 frames with the Halos this past season. He owns a career 7.41 ERA in that time but has averaged 96.7 mph on his heater and fanned 27% of his opponents. Walks (11.2%) and home runs (1.43 HR/9) have both been issues for the hard-throwing righty, but Reyes has a decent track record in a hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League (4.25 ERA, 30% strikeout rate). FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him among the Angels’ top 30 prospects in 2021, writing that arm strength and fastball movement alone gave him a chance to be a big league reliever.

Oakland isn’t going to be a choice destination for many free agents with the team clearly focused more on its pending move to Las Vegas than actually building a competitive roster for the 2024 season. But for a live-armed reliever like Reyes, who’s had a couple decent Triple-A seasons and is looking for a shot at a role in the majors, the A’s probably hold some appeal. Oakland’s only three relievers with even two years of MLB service are Sean Newcomb, Zach Jackson and Dany Jimenez. There’s virtually no certainty in the Athletics’ relief corps right now, so if Reyes were to show well in spring training or early in the Triple-A campaign, there’d be little standing in his way to a shot in the big leagues.

Tigers Re-Sign Trey Wingenter To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have re-signed right-hander Trey Wingenter to a minor league deal with an invite to major league Spring Training, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. The righty will make a base salary of $1.2MM if he cracks the roster.

Wingenter, 30 in April, has shown big strikeout stuff in his career but also battled injuries, with those storylines carrying into 2023. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers last winter as well and cracked the club’s Opening Day roster. But after just six appearances, he landed on the injured list due to tendinitis in his throwing shoulder and wasn’t activated until about three months later.

He ultimately tossed 17 innings for the Tigers with a 5.82 earned run average in that small sample. He struck out 28.9% of batters faced while walking just 9.2%, and he also kept 43.2% of balls in play on the ground. A .333 batting average on balls in play and 64.7% strand rate led to some more runs crossing the board, hence his 3.96 FIP and 3.43 SIERA. He was outrighted off the roster in November and elected free agency.

Prior to the 2023 season, Wingenter didn’t pitch in the majors at all from 2020-2022, due to Tommy John surgery and a couple of of back surgeries. Prior to that, he pitched for the Padres, striking out roughly a third of batters faced in 2018 and 2019.

He’ll now returns to the Tigers and provide them with some non-roster depth. If he’s healthy and in good form, he could earn himself a roster spot, just as he did in 2023. If he does, he still has an option remaining and just over four years of service time. If he’s on the roster at the end of next season, the Tigers will have the ability to retain him via arbitration for 2025.

Guardians Designate Alfonso Rivas For Assignment

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The Guardians announced Friday that they’ve designated first baseman Alfonso Rivas for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to catcher Austin Hedges, whose one-year deal to return to Cleveland is now official. The Guardians will have a week to trade Rivas, pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Rivas came to the Guardians in an offseason waiver claim from the Pirates. He’s never appeared in a game for the organization. The 27-year-old has logged big league time in each of the past three seasons, suiting up for the Cubs, Padres and Bucs. While Rivas had a productive rookie showing with Chicago in ’21, slashing .318/.388/.409 in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances, he’s followed that up with a .233/.316/.342 showing in 410 plate appearances from 2022-23.

Although his production hasn’t carried over to the big leagues, Rivas is an accomplished Triple-A hitter with a .313/.424/.492 slash in parts of four seasons at that level. He’s walked at a gaudy 15.1% clip in Triple-A and fanned at a slightly lower-than-average 21% as well. While Rivas doesn’t have immense power, he’s smacked 40 doubles and 15 round-trippers in 637 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. It’s an impressive track record of production in the upper minors — one that has clearly piqued the interest of multiple teams.

Rivas still has one minor league option remaining, so for a team looking to add a potential high-OBP left-handed bat to its depth chart or perhaps even its bench competition, Rivas makes some sense — either via waiver claim or low-cost trade.

Latest On Cardinals’ Pursuit Of Bullpen Help

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The Cardinals acted quickly to reshape their rotation this offseason, signing right-handers Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn within a span of a week. They’ve since shipped outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox in a trade that netted a pair of potential bullpen arms, but they’re not done looking for help in their relief corps. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier this week that the Cards have at least held internal discussions about free agent righty Hector Neris, and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Cardinals hosted star NPB lefty Yuki Matsui for a meeting in St. Louis just yesterday. Goold also again linked the Cards to free agent Phil Maton, to whom they’ve been previously tied.

The meeting with Matsui is the more notable development at the moment. Reports out of Japan back in October pegged the Cardinals as a team with interest in the five-time NPB All-Star, but a sitdown in St. Louis is a more concrete indicator.

The 28-year-old Matsui has saved 30 or more games for the Rakuten Golden Eagles on six different occasions, including this past season’s career-high mark of 39. He pitched 57 1/3 innings in 2023 and worked to a scintillating 1.57 ERA, giving him three straight seasons with an ERA that clocked in under 2.00. Matsui also fanned nearly a third of his opponents and turned in a 5.9% walk rate. Dating back to 2019, the southpaw boasts a 2.20 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.

Matsui’s track record in Japan is clearly excellent, but there’s at least some reason to think MLB clubs might have some trepidation. He’s listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds — a Tim Collins-esque frame that rarely has found much success in the big leagues. MLBTR spoke to multiple scouts and evaluators about Matsui and other international free agents prior to the onset of free agency and received mixed reviews, though Matsui did draw praise for his slider and deceptive delivery. Every team’s opinion on Matsui will vary, of course, and it stands to reason that there are big league clubs that believe he can be a viable late-inning reliever in North American ball — even if he can’t quite replicate his staggering NPB numbers.

Because of his lengthy track record in NPB — he’s pitched 10 full seasons despite his youth — Matsui accrued enough service time to be a free agent who can sign in MLB without being subject to the MLB/NPB posting system. (NPB requires nine years of service to become an unrestricted free agent.) That fact, coupled with his age and his year-over-year excellence could help to mitigate concerns about Matsui’s size and lead to a multi-year deal.

Neris, meanwhile, is more of a known commodity. He’s accrued more than eight years of MLB service time since debuting with the Phillies back in 2014 and has regularly been a high-leverage option for both the Phillies and Astros — the only two clubs for whom he’s pitched to this point in his career. Neris logged 68 1/3 innings with the ’Stros in 2023, posting a pristine 1.71 ERA in his second season with Houston. His two-year, $17MM deal with Houston contained a club option for 2025, but a clause in his contract converted that to a player option depending on Neris’ workload. He remained healthy and effective in his time with Houston and wound up vesting that player option, which he declined in search of another multi-year deal.

Last year’s shiny ERA is certainly eye-catching, though Neris’ 11.4% walk rate and tiny .219 average on balls in play are among the reasons that fielding-independent metrics are more bearish on his most recent performance (3.83 FIP, 3.89 SIERA). Those are still fine marks, of course, and Neris still fanned 28.2% of his opponents with swinging-strike and chase rates (14.1% and 35.1%, respectively) that were well north of the league average. Dating back to 2018, Neris sports a terrific 31.3% strikeout rate. He’s also avoided the injured list almost entirely in his big league career, with his only IL trip coming back in 2020, when he spent three weeks on the Covid-related IL.

Ryan Helsley will likely reprise his role as the Cardinals’ closer and be supported by Giovanny Gallegos and out-of-options southpaw JoJo Romero next season. The remainder of the Cardinals’ bullpen is a bit more fluid, with Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson, Nick Robertson (acquired from Boston for O’Neill) and Matthew Liberatore among the options for manager Oli Marmol. The Cardinals’ activity thus far has pushed their payroll a bit north of $175MM, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has previously hinted that there’s room to further add to that figure.

Max Scherzer Undergoes Back Surgery

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The Rangers announced Friday that right-hander Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back. General manager Chris Young tells reporters that the team and Scherzer tried “multiple conservative treatments in pain management” before resorting to surgery (link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). Unfortunately, the last-resort option was apparently deemed necessary, and the operation will sideline Scherzer into June or even July.

“After returning to my offseason home in Florida, my discomfort in my back continued to get worse,” Scherzer himself said, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. “During this time, I received a diagnosis of a herniated disc. After several conservative treatments and consulting with multiple specialists, I made the decision to have the recommended surgery. Getting this procedure done now will give me the best chance to pitch as much as possible for the Rangers in 2024. I look forward to putting in the rehab work and getting back on the mound next summer.”

It’s obviously unwelcome news for the Rangers, who just gave up Luisangel Acuña to acquire Scherzer and cash from the Mets at last year’s deadline. As part of that deal, the Scherzer agreed to pick up his 2024 player option so that the club knew it was getting him for more than just a rental situation. Now he will miss at least half of the upcoming season that was obviously important to them.

These back problems aren’t coming out of the blue today. Scherzer was removed from Game 3 of the World Series after just three innings due to issue with his back, varyingly described as tightness or spasms. He was removed from the club’s roster prior to Game 4. Though the club was able to secure the title without him, it seems the issue lingered and ultimately required a significant surgery.

The club is now in a very peculiar situation in terms of their rotation, with the first half outlook wildly different than the second. Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June and could potentially return late in the 2024 campaign, depending on how his rehab goes. The club also signed Tyler Mahle just yesterday, who is on a similar timeline to deGrom, having undergone his own TJS procedure in May.

That means the club could welcome each of Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom back to the club over the course of 2024, but none of them will factor into the Opening Day rotation. For now, that leaves them with Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning as healthy options for the start of the season. Options for the back end would include Cody Bradford or Owen White, though they could also pursue external additions in the weeks to come.

This will likely give the club some interesting calculations to make. Last month, general manager Chris Young suggested their spending would likely be more modest this offseason, when compared to the big money they’ve recently thrown around on those aforementioned pitchers as well as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Although the club just won the World Series and surely banked some extra playoff money, there’s uncertainty around their broadcast revenues due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the owner of the Bally Sports network. The club’s competitive balance tax figure is currently at $233MM, per Roster Resource, just barely below next year’s base threshold of $237MM.

Rosenthal took a look at their situation earlier today, noting that the club was still interested in Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery and is yet another pitcher slated for a midseason return. That column came out before the Scherzer news, so it’s unknown if the club would still want to use its limited payroll room to bring in yet another pitcher that will miss the first half of the season.

But Rosenthal also adds that, if ownership becomes more comfortable with adding payroll, they could pivot to a reunion with Jordan Montgomery or one of the top starters on the trading block. Even with Glasnow seemingly headed to the Dodgers, pitchers like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes could be available for the right price.

If the club plans to stick with their conservative offseason, it may involve taking a risk on having limited pitching depth in the first half while banking on the returns of those injured guys for a strong second half push. But improving that depth might require them to alter their spending plans and/or go into luxury tax territory.

Royals Finalizing Two-Year Deal With Hunter Renfroe

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The Royals are reportedly finalizing a deal with outfielder Hunter Renfroe, which is pending a physical. The McKinnis Sports client will get $13MM over two years, with $500K in incentives also available each year. He will make $5.5MM in 2024 and $7.5MM in 2025, but can opt out after the first season.

It’s been a busy week for the Royals, who have signed pitchers Seth Lugo and Will Smith, while also reportedly agreeing to a deal with Chris Stratton. They also had known interest in buttressing their outfield, having been connected to Tyler O’Neill in recent rumors. But the Cardinals flipped O’Neill to the Red Sox and it seems the Royals have pivoted to the free agent market.

Renfroe, 32 in January, has been incredibly nomadic in recent seasons, which is likely a reflection of his enticing power but limited overall profile. He began his career with the Padres but has subsequently bounced to the Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels and Reds, meaning he’s worn six jerseys in the past five years, with this deal set to make it seven in six.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2017, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each full season, as well as eight in the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s also reached the 30-homer plateau twice. But he also doesn’t have huge batting average or on-base percentages. His career batting line of .239/.300/.478 amounts to a wRC+ of 106, indicating he’s been a bit above league average on the whole.

But that’s come in fairly inconsistent fashion on a year-to-year basis. In 2019, he hit 33 home runs, but that was the “juiced ball” season. Since he struck out in 31.2% of his plate appearances and had a .289 OBP, he was actually a smidge below league average, 99 wRC+. He was flipped to Tampa and then had significant struggles in 2020, despite the eight homers. The Rays traded him to the Red Sox, which led to a bounceback season and Boston flipping him to the Brewers for prospects, taking on Jackie Bradley Jr. in the process. Renfroe hit 60 homers over those seasons with Boston and Milwaukee, slashing .257/.315/.496 for a wRC+ of 118.

Yet another trade to the Halos preceded yet another downturn. He hit 19 homers but his .242/.304/.434 line had his wRC+ at 99 again. As the club fell out of contention, they put multiple players on waivers to try to dip below the luxury tax. Renfroe was one one them and he was claimed by the Reds. In 14 games with that club, he hit a dismal .128/.227/.205 and was released.

Renfroe isn’t a burner on the basepaths, having stolen just 14 bases in his career and none in 2023. Defensively, he’s generally been subpar. He has a career tally of -9 Outs Above Average as an outfielder while Ultimate Zone Rating has given him a grade of -5.1. Defensive Runs Saved has him at +13 but most of that is due to a +19 grade in 2019, which looks like a clear outlier.

Though Renfroe hasn’t been an all-around performer, his strengths have been enough for him to have value. Per FanGraphs’ versions of Wins Above Replacement, he produced between 1.5 and 2.5 wins in the four full seasons prior to 2023. He’s definitely coming off a weaker platform season, 0.6 fWAR, but he was at 1.1 before the waiver claim and hasty move to Cincinnati.

The Royals had plenty of questions in their outfield and don’t need Renfroe to be a superstar for him to count as an upgrade. Their outfielders hit a collective .228/.294/.393 in 2023 for a wRC+ of 83. Nelson Velázquez earned himself a role in 2024 with a power surge in 2023, but he could perhaps see some DH time since his glovework isn’t strongly rated. MJ Melendez could be in a corner but he’s coming off a disappointing season and has been in trade rumors, with some clubs perhaps willing to move him back to catcher. Center fielders Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters are good defenders but both are coming off poor seasons offensively. Edward Olivares and Dairon Blanco are also in the mix but have limited track records.

For a club coming off a 106-loss season, there’s merit to adding a guy like Renfroe who has a decent chance of being a solid regular. If he does so and the club remains a non-contender over the course of the deal, he could perhaps turn into a trade chip at some point. For Renfroe himself, he was able to lock in a decent chunk of change while also securing the ability to return to the open market a year from now if he can have a better platform.

This is the third time the Royals have given an opt-out this winter, with Lugo and Stratton also getting one in their deals. Perhaps the club is using this as a bit of an edge to lure players to a club that may not be the first choice of some free agents. The club hasn’t been a huge spender traditionally and has been producing poor results in recent years, but perhaps giving players some extra contractual agency has allowed them to overcome some of those obstacles.

General manager J.J. Picollo recently threw out $30MM as a ballpark figure for what the club could spend this winter to upgrade the 2024 club. The deals with Lugo, Smith, Stratton and Renfroe add up to $29.5MM. But news is now breaking about a deal with Michael Wacha, which also has an opt-out, so it seems the club wasn’t rigidly tied to that spending level.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first had the two sides nearing agreement on what was expected to be a one-year deal plus a player option. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relayed that the deal is still pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed the two-year/opt-out structure and relayed the $13MM guarantee and incentives. Feinsand then relayed the specific financial breakdown.

Pirates, Andrew McCutchen In Talks On Reunion

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Talks between the Pirates and Andrew McCutchen on a potential reunion have begun to accelerate, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. A deal between the two sides could be completed by early next week.

A reunion between McCutchen and the Pirates has been seen as something of a formality for several months now. McCutchen returned to his original organization last year, signing a one-year deal worth $5MM to serve as the team’s designated hitter and a part-time outfielder. He told Mackey at the time of his signing that he hoped to finish his career back in Pittsburgh, which felt like home. Cutch reiterated his desire to play in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh only back in May, and after his season ended in early September with a partial tear of his Achilles, Pirates GM Ben Cherington said they hoped for a new deal and planned to talk with McCutchen this winter.

The now-37-year-old McCutchen is a franchise icon with the Pirates, who selected him with the 11th overall pick back in 2005 and watched him develop from one of the game’s top prospects, to a Rookie of the Year candidate, to a five-time All-Star and eventual National League MVP (2013). McCutchen signed a $51.5MM extension with the Bucs in 2012 but was traded after the team picked up an option for the seventh and final season of the deal — a swap that brought current cornerstone Bryan Reynolds to Pittsburgh.

After stops with the Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Brewers, McCutchen returned home last year and spoke often about his love of Pittsburgh and his desire to finish out his career there. It wasn’t all pure nostalgia, however, as the four-time Silver Slugger proved he still had life in his bat as well. McCutchen tallied 473 plate appearances and posted a .256/.378/.397 batting line, swatting a dozen homers, collecting 19 doubles and walking at a massive 15.9% clip.

The timing of McCutchen’s injury was particularly unfortunate, as it came on the cusp of a milestone. McCutchen sits at 299 career home runs — just one shy of becoming just the 160th player in MLB history to reach 300 home runs. The Pirates open the 2024 season on the road, so it’s possible that his milestone round-tripper could come away from the home fans, but regardless of where that historic long ball takes place, the fans at PNC Park will give McCutchen a hero’s welcome whenever he first takes the field again next season.

Assuming McCutchen resumes his role as a primary designated hitter, he’ll slot into a lineup with Reynolds and Jack Suwinski locked into outfield spots, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz on the left side of the infield, Henry Davis behind the plate and recently signed Rowdy Tellez at first base. The Pirates currently have a projected payroll of just $58MM, and re-signing McCutchen at or close to the same terms as last year would push that to $63MM. It’s not clear quite how high the team’s payroll will go, but Cherington said at this month’s Winter Meetings that the payroll will increase over last year’s $73MM mark.

The Opener: Glasnow, Royals, SP Market

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As MLB’s offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Glasnow deal appears imminent:

Reports yesterday indicated that the Dodgers and Rays have agreed upon a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca. The deal hinges on an extension being finalized between the Dodgers and Glasnow. A deal is expected to come together, with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggesting it could occur as soon as today. When completed, the deal will begin to address L.A.’s massive vacancies in the rotation, where Glasnow will join Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler as surefire starting options. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Yarbrough are among the club’s depth options for the rotation, though the Dodgers figure to continue looking to reinforce the group after posting a 4.57 ERA that was 11th-worst in all of baseball last year.

2. Royals 40-man roster move incoming?

Yesterday, the Royals cleared space on their 40-man roster for right-hander Seth Lugo by trading right-hander Taylor Clarke to the Brewers in exchange for right-hander Ryan Brady and infielder Cam Devanney, neither of whom are on the 40-man. Lugo isn’t the only free agent signing the club will need to make room for on their roster, however, as Kansas City also got together on a deal with right-hander Chris Stratton earlier this week. The Royals, of course, could simply designate a player on their 40-man for assignment to make room for Stratton, though it’s fair to wonder if the club hopes to work out another minor trade to clear roster space as it did with Milwaukee yesterday.

3. SP market heating up?

In addition to the aforementioned agreement on a Glasnow trade, the starting pitching market lost a pair of free agents yesterday as right-handers Jack Flaherty and Tyler Mahle signed on with the Tigers and Rangers, respectively. The deals further heat up a middle-to-back of the rotation market that has seen plenty of deals come together so far this offseason. The upper tiers of the market have lagged behind in comparison, with Eduardo Rodriguez agreeing to a contract this month after quick-strike deals came together for Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray in November. Generally, it seems as though the top-of-the-rotation market is being held up by the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding. Yamamoto visited with the Phillies, adding a new team to the widely-known field of contenders for his services that already included the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.

Dodgers, Rays Agree To Tyler Glasnow Trade; Extension With Dodgers Expected

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The Dodgers and Rays are in agreement on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4MM to Los Angeles, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca going to Tampa. The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with the Dodgers, which is reportedly expected to get done.

Glasnow has been in trade rumors for weeks but this framework of players was reported on yesterday, but without a deal being completed before the end of the day. Passan reports that the extension window opened Thursday morning. The details of the extension talks aren’t publicly known but it seems there is some optimism that it will get done, and the trade along with it. Glasnow is from the Los Angeles area initially, which could perhaps help to facilitate a deal. The trade-and-extend path is rare in baseball but not entirely unprecedented. The Reds took this path with Sonny Gray going into 2019, acquiring him and signing him to a three-year extension.

The right-handed Glasnow has already signed one extension in his career, which is how this situation developed. In August of 2022, as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Rays and Glasnow agreed to an extension. It would pay him $5.35MM in 2023, his final year of arbitration eligibility, and then a big jump to $25MM in 2024. Glasnow had battled significant health issues in his career but was able to lock in a huge payday before fully returning from surgery and re-establishing his health. The Rays, meanwhile, got an extra year of control by betting on Glasnow’s eventual return.

Glasnow did return to the mound late in that 2022 season, making two regular season starts and then another in the postseason. Here in 2023, he was healthy enough to take the ball 21 times and registered a 3.53 earned run average. The Rays subsequently lost plenty of other starting pitchers, with each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs undergoing significant elbow surgery in 2023.

All those factors combined to put the club in a tight spot, along with the finances. They have never run a payroll beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but came into the offseason projected for something closer to $120MM. Moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary in 2024 was one of the most straightforward ways for the club to cut costs, but that would only exacerbate their rotation concerns. Reports in recent weeks had suggested they were looking to acquire younger, cheaper pitching in any Glasnow deal. They have accomplished that with this trade and have also done the same thing in the outfield.

For the Dodgers, they already made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Shohei Ohtani, but he isn’t going to pitch in 2024 due to his recent elbow surgery. Even after that lengthy Ohtani courtship, they still had a lot of work to do in their rotation. Lance Lynn, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw all reached free agency at season’s end. Kershaw has re-signed with the club many times before but he is recovering from shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least the middle of the season. Dustin May is in a similar position after his flexor tendon surgery and Tommy John revision. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2024.

That left the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS, and Bobby Miller as their rotation core coming into the offseason. They had other options, including Pepiot, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone, but it was obviously an area for the club to target this winter.

Glasnow now hasn’t been the picture of health in his career. His 120 innings pitched in 2023 were actually a career high. But a lot of that is due to the pandemic limiting him to 11 starts in 2020, and then the TJS impacting the two seasons after. In 2023, he did miss time with an oblique strain but his arm seemed to be fine.

His results on a rate basis have been very strong. Going back to the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 35% of batters faced in that time, walked just 7.7% and kept 47.2% of balls in play on the ground. The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to gamble on talented arms with injury risk and Glasnow is the latest example of that.

The club will also bolster their outfield mix in this deal. With Mookie Betts moving to second base essentially full-time next year, the club’s outfield mix consisted of James Outman in center with Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward projected for the corners. Heyward had a nice bounceback season in 2023 but did so while the Dodgers shielded him from left-handed pitching.

Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.

He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.

For the Rays, this is a classic trade for them. Due to their low payrolls, they often find themselves trading away players as their salaries increase and they get closer to free agency. The hope is always to acquire players that are younger, cheaper and with more club control, though they are also less established at the big league level. Glasnow is set to make $25MM next year while Margot is still owed $12MM, which includes a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. Since they are including $4MM in the deal, this will save them $33MM, while hopefully keeping the talent on the roster minimally impacted.

Pepiot, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and subsequently became a top 100 prospect. In 2022, he was able to throw 91 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.56 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made his major league debut, with a 3.47 ERA in his first 36 1/3 innings. While Gonsolin was sidelined to start the 2023 season, Pepiot was named the club’s fifth starter out of spring. Unfortunately, he then suffered an oblique strain that kept him on the injured list until August. He eventually tossed 42 more innings at the big league level with a 2.14 ERA.

The young righty has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2025 and won’t reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. He also still has an option remaining, which gives the club some flexibility if they feel he needs some more seasoning, since he has just 78 1/3 innings of major league experience.

But he would likely project to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation right now. They could make more moves between now and then, but they currently have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as the most seasoned in the bunch. Zack Littell has been around a few years but only recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back in 2024, perhaps with workload concerns. Taj Bradley is also part of the calculus but he had an underwhelming debut in 2023. Amid all of those questions, there should be a path for Pepiot to carve out a role for himself, though subsequent transactions could perhaps make that more challenging.

Deluca, 25, has 24 games of major league experience to this point. He only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances but also kept his strikeouts down to a 17.8% clip. His .262/.311/.429 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102. He has performed very well in the minors over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s appeared in 171 games on the farm with 42 home runs, a 10.4% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate. His .274/.365/.552 batting line in that time leads to a 135 wRC+.

He still has a couple of options but could try to earn himself a job in the big leagues this year. The club’s outfield projects to include Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe, with Luke Raley and others also in the mix. Arozarena has also been in trade rumors but this deal could perhaps lessen the needs for the Rays to continue dropping the payroll.

Ultimately, none of this is confirmed, as it all stills hinges on the Glasnow extension getting done. Though there’s optimism around getting that over the finish line, no details about those talks have filtered out yet. Assuming it is completed, the Rays will have done what they always do, cycling out expensive players for cheaper ones that they hope to mold to a similar talent level. The Dodgers are picking up win-now pieces, while the Glasnow extension will help them down the road as well. Buehler is slated for free agency after 2024 but Glasnow could perhaps be joined by Gonsolin and May by then, while some of the other young arms while hopefully have blossomed in the interim.

Both clubs likely still have significant moves to make in the months to come. The Dodgers still could use some more starting pitching, even with Glasnow in the fold, while the Rays could perhaps use their cost savings to pursue rotation additions of their own.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on that Glasnow extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the inclusion of the $4MM.

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