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Braves Likely To Trade Marco Gonzales

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Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.

Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.

The soft-tossing Gonzales was a quality member of the Seattle rotation from 2018-22, pitching 765 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball along the way. He became quite homer-prone in 2021, however, and saw an already below-average strikeout rate dip to concerning levels in 2022. Gonzales still posted a solid earned run average over those two seasons, but the home run and strikeout trends were noted red flags.

While the lefty managed to cut back on the homers he allowed in 2023, Gonzales was still tagged for a grim 5.22 ERA in 50 innings. His 15.8% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in the game and the second-worst of his Mariners tenure. His 8.4% walk rate was the worst of his career. Three of his ten starts last year were actually quite serviceable, but Gonzales was clobbered for eight runs on two occasions and also served up four runs through five innings in his first outing of the year. Ultimately, a left forearm strain ended his season in late May.

For the Braves, it’s sensible to see them look to move Gonzales elsewhere. He’d at best have been a fifth starter candidate in a team that boasts Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder in the top four spots on the staff. His $12MM salary also pushed the Braves into the second tier of luxury penalization.

The Associated Press reports that Seattle is set to send $4.5MM to Atlanta to cover part of that $12MM sum — $12.25MM, if counting the $250K assignment bonus Gonzales received as part of being traded. As such, the Braves would only owe Gonzales about $7.75MM in actual salary, but he’s still cost them a bit more than $10MM once factoring in the penalties the team would’ve incurred under the competitive balance tax.

That’s probably more than the Braves care to spend on a back-of-the-rotation candidate who’s not clearly a superior option to in-house candidates like AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd, and it might even be more than Gonzales could expect to command on the open market after an injury-marred season. Presumably, if and when Gonzales changes hands a second time, those cost-savings will be redirected to his new team.

While Gonzales perhaps isn’t a fit for a win-now Braves club with at least four healthier and better options in the rotation ahead of him, that doesn’t mean he can’t help another club. There are several teams throughout the league — Royals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Padres, Nationals to name a few — who are simply looking for innings to round out the starting staff. Gonzales’ 50 frames last year don’t paint the picture of an innings eater, but he’d averaged 30 starts and 174 frames over his past four 162-game seasons prior to 2023 (plus 11 starts and 69 2/3 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign). If Gonzales’ medicals show that the forearm strain which ended his season is in the rearview mirror, another club might feel it can comfortably rely on him for 150ish innings this coming season. And if the Mariners are footing roughly a third of the bill regardless of where Gonzales lands, he could be viewed as a relatively affordable source of those innings at a time when veteran free agents in their late 30s (i.e. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are commanding $12-13MM for similar roles.

Dodgers Hire Chris Archer As Special Assistant

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The Dodgers have hired Chris Archer as a special assistant in their baseball operations department, as the righty himself tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It doesn’t seem as though he has a clearly defined role as of yet, telling Mackey that he’s sampling a few different things.

Archer, now 35, has pitched in 243 major league games, logging 1,357 innings with an earned run average of 3.93. Most of those games were with the Rays, though he has also pitched for the Pirates and Twins. His most recent stint was with Minnesota in 2022, with that club declining a mutual option for 2023, then Archer didn’t end up signing with anyone for the 2023 season.

There hasn’t been anything to indicate he has officially retired but it appears he is at least pursuing non-playing opportunities for the time being. It’s unknown if he has a target area that he will be focusing on with the Dodgers, but he has almost two decades of experience with the league to draw upon, having been drafted back in 2006. He has dabbled in non-playing roles before, having occasionally jumped on some broadcasts as a commentator/analyst at times. That’s something he could perhaps try again in the future but he seems to be getting a feel for front office work for the time being.

Brewers Sign Jackson Chourio To Eight-Year Extension

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The Brewers have officially announced that they have signed outfield prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year extension that runs through 2031 plus two club options for 2032 and 2033. Previous reporting has indicated the guarantee is $82MM, with the options each valued at $25MM. There are also some unknown incentives, which could allow him to max out at $142.5MM if he hits them all and both options are picked up. The options come with $2MM buyouts.

The deal is the largest ever offered to a player prior to their major league debut, surpassing the six-year, $50MM guarantee the White Sox gave to Luis Robert Jr. prior to the 2020 season. While Chourio, 19, has played just six games above the Double-A level to this point in his young career, it’s easy to see why this level of confidence in the youngster. Chourio is a consensus top-three prospect in the sport, with only Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday ranked above him consistently by prospect outlets. The deal will keep Chourio under contract through at least 2030 while extending his potential window of team control through 2032, his age-29 season.

Chourio signed with Milwaukee out of Venezuela for a $1.8MM bonus back in 2021 and immediately made an impression during his professional debut with a .286/.386/.447 slash line in 45 Dominican Summer League games at just 17 years old. His stateside debut the following season went even better as the youngster slashed a phenomenal .288/.342/.538 in 439 trips to the plate split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels. That performance already made Chourio a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 season, and he did little to disprove his status among the game’s elite prospect talents, slashing .280/.336/.467 in 559 plate appearances in his return to Double-A before his aforementioned cup of coffee in Triple-A. While he received just 24 plate appearances at the minors’ highest level, Chourio did not look overmatched with a slash line of .333/.375/.476.

With Chourio entering the 2024 season under guaranteed contract, there will be little incentive for the Brewers to send him back to Triple-A to start the regular season so long as he doesn’t look overmatched during big league camp this spring. The deal takes away the possibility of the club securing an extra year of team control, while the club could stand to gain a draft pick from the prospect promotion incentive if Chourio secures a full year of service time as a rookie eligible player and wins the Rookie of the Year award in 2024 or places in the top three of MVP voting before he would’ve been eligible for arbitration.

That said, Chourio starting the season with the big league club isn’t necessarily guaranteed. After all, the youngster has minimal experience at the Triple-A level and the Brewers already have a relatively crowded outfield mix even before considering their top prospect. Christian Yelich figures to get everyday at-bats in either left field or as the club’s DH, leaving just two spots for Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Tyrone Taylor, and Blake Perkins. On the other hand, only Mitchell posted an above-average offensive season by wRC+ in 2023 among that group, leaving plenty of room for Chourio to establish himself as one of the club’s best options. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers could attempt to leverage that crop of young outfield options on the trade market this offseason, improving the club in other areas while clearing up the logjam on the outfield grass.

Securing Chourio’s services for the next eight-to-ten seasons gives the Brewers some additional security regarding their potential budding superstar. Milwaukee has faced several difficult decisions regarding star players on the verge of free agency this offseason, from non-tendering ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff to considering trades for Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes. If retained into next season, both Adames and Burnes are likely to depart in free agency next winter. By extending Chourio now, the Brewers take on the risk that their teenage phenom doesn’t reach his potential at the big league level in exchange for avoiding a similar situation to the one they’re currently facing down the road.

It’s not currently clear if this deal will impact the club’s thinking with regards to Burnes and Adames, but it shouldn’t have much of an impact from a financial perspective. While Chourio’s contract has an AAV of $10.25MM for luxury tax purposes, the club is more than $100MM below the first luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource. What’s more, early-career extensions tend to have salaries that ramp up over the course of the extension. In the likely event that Chourio’s deal has a similar structure, the youngster’s salary figures to be relatively low in 2024 despite the healthy guarantee.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were closing in on an agreement. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first reported the deal would be in the $80MM range over eight years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the specifics of the $82MM guarantee and club options with $2MM buyouts. Rosenthal reported the option values and Heyman had the potential max payout of the deal.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to the offseason, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Chourio, Miley

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With the Winter Meetings underway in Nashville, Tennessee, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball today:

1. The Winter Meetings get rolling

Outside of one major trade on Sunday night – the Braves acquired Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners – the lead-in to MLB’s Winter Meetings was relatively quiet. That was to be expected, however. The first day is often the slowest, as executives and agents are just arriving and getting ready for the busy week ahead.

Now, with the calendar flipped to Monday, perhaps the hot stove will really start to sizzle. Forty-three of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unsigned, and none of Anthony Franco’s Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates have yet been dealt. It’s hard to believe that will remain the case for long.

2. Brewers to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s contract extension

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Brewers will host a press conference today during the Winter Meetings to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s record-smashing contract extension.

The 19-year-old top prospect will make a minimum of $82MM over the next eight years and can earn as much as $142.5MM over ten if the Brewers exercise both of their team options and Chourio maxes out all his incentives. It is far and away the largest contract ever signed by a player before making his MLB debut.

Presumably, the Brewers plan to put Chourio on the 2024 Opening Day roster, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him starting in center the next time they take the field. The big question now is if the Brewers will keep spending to put together a more competitive team around their young phenom.

3. Will Wade Miley be the next free agent to sign?

In more Brewers news, the team is reportedly close to re-signing veteran starter Wade Miley. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to surmise that a deal was on the horizon, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Sunday evening that the two sides were “moving closer” to an agreement.

No figures have yet been reported, but it’s worth mentioning that Miley rejected his side of a $10MM mutual option with Milwaukee earlier this offseason, instead collecting a $1MM buyout. Presumably, the new contract they are discussing will guarantee him a bigger payday than the one he turned down.

Dodgers Could Be Looking To Upgrade At Shortstop

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While the Dodgers went 100-62 last season en route to their tenth division title in the past 11 years, even they weren’t without their weak spots. One such weakness was at shortstop, where the Dodgers finished among the bottom five NL teams in OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR.

Gavin Lux, the presumptive starter at the position, suffered a season-ending injury in spring training, and his primary replacement, the veteran Miguel Rojas, had his worst offensive season since 2016. Versatile defenders Mookie Betts and Chris Taylor filled in capably from time to time, but neither is a full-time shortstop and ultimately, for lack of better options, the Dodgers were left counting on an aging Rojas far too often.

Rojas is under contract through 2024, but the Dodgers will ask him to play a backup role going forward – the role he was supposed to play last season before Lux tore his ACL. For his part, Lux expects to be back on the field next year, and the Dodgers expect him to be their everyday shortstop.

During the General Managers Meetings in early November, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) the team was optimistic Lux would be ready to resume his role as the primary shortstop in 2024. The exec repeated the message just before the Winter Meetings, telling members of the media, “Our thought is that he’s going to be our shortstop” (as relayed by Cary Osborne of Dodger Insider).

Lux was once a top-100 prospect, and he finally started to live up to his top-prospect billing in 2022, when he posted a 114 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR in 129 games. If he can hit like that and play a serviceable shortstop in 2024, the Dodgers will be thrilled. However, that’s a lot to ask for from a largely unproven player entering his age-26 season and coming off a major injury. What’s more, Lux has only started 50 games at shortstop in his major league career, and he hasn’t been a primary shortstop since his 2019 season in the minor leagues. Even if he is fully healthy in 2024, he’s far from a sure thing.

As for the team’s other internal options? They’ve already tried them all. Betts and Taylor can cover shortstop on occasion, but they aren’t the answer, and besides, they’re needed at other positions. Then there’s Rojas, who just can’t hit enough anymore to hold down an everyday role.

With all that in mind, it’s not too surprising the Dodgers are considering an external fix. Per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the Dodgers “could upgrade” at shortstop, according to “a person familiar with the situation.”

Ardaya mentions Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, who the Dodgers were interested in last offseason, as a potential trade candidate. Indeed, the 28-year-old would certainly be an upgrade. Even in a down year last season, he was close to league average at the plate and elite in the field, hitting for a 94 wRC+ and recording 16 Outs Above Average. Over the past three years, Adames ranks ninth among primary shortstops with 11.3 fWAR.

However, after Adames, it’s hard to identify other shortstops who would count as an upgrade. Free agent Tim Anderson is a former All-Star, but he’s coming off a dreadful season in which he hit .245/.286/.296 with just one home run. He also made 14 errors and posted negative numbers by nearly every defensive metric. Fellow free agent Amed Rosario is coming off a disappointing season of his own, and although he played better after a midseason trade to the Dodgers, a big part of that was because the Dodgers decided to use him primarily at second base. Meanwhile, the next best trade candidate might be Jorge Mateo, who has become the odd man out in a crowded Orioles infield. However, while he boasts a slick glove, he had even worse offensive numbers than Rojas last season.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto To Meet With Teams Within The Next Week

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Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto is getting closer to Major League Baseball, both literally and figuratively. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the 25-year-old right-hander is coming to the United States “within the next week” to begin in-person meetings with his MLB suitors.

As previously reported by Andy Martino of SNY, Yamamoto planned to hold initial meetings with all interested teams over the phone or Zoom before traveling to North America to meet with the finalists for his services. Presumably, the phone call stage of the process is wrapping up, which suggests the star pitcher has already begun to narrow down his options. It remains unclear how many teams Yamamoto will be speaking with, although Puma reports that the Mets are one of the clubs to secure a meeting with the five-time NPB All-Star.

Martino’s initial report indicated that Yamamoto would not sign until after the Winter Meetings, and Puma’s update seems to confirm that timeline. While the righty must sign before his posting window closes on January 4 (if he is going to sign with an MLB team at all), that still gives him just over a month to make his choice.

There might not be much news about Yamamoto during the Winter Meetings, but still, it will be interesting to see how his timeline affects the rest of the starting pitching market. Plenty of teams are pursuing the righty, and they might prefer to wait until he signs elsewhere before turning to Plan B. Similarly, frontline starters like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery might be waiting for Yamamoto to set the market, which could make this a quiet week on the starting pitching front. Then again, perhaps teams with starters to trade will take advantage of such a lull; Tyler Glasnow of the Rays and Dylan Cease of the White Sox are already generating interest as the Winter Meetings get underway.

Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves

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The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.

Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.

Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.

Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.

Some more trade-related news from around baseball…

  • Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
  • Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.

Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White From Mariners

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The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.

Kelenic, the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 draft and a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport, struggled to a .168/.251/.338 slash line in 558 trips to the plate across his first two seasons in the majors. Despite the brutal start to Kelenic’s big league career, he managed to put together a solid campaign in 2023 as Seattle’s regular left fielder. In 416 trips to the plate across 105 games, the youngster slashed a solid .253/.327/.419. Now Kelenic, who is not yet eligible for arbitration, heads to Atlanta with five seasons of team control remaining coming off a career-best season in the majors where he posted a wRC+ of 108.

Even that performance came with some red flags, however. While Kelenic walked at an above average 9.9% clip, his 31.7% strikeout rate ranked in just the seventh percentile among qualified hitters and his overall slash line surely benefited from a .359 BABIP. He also struggled considerably after a hot April, slashing just .235/.314/.356 the rest of the way. That said, it’s worth noting that Kelenic, who will play the 2024 season at just age-24, posted a .321 wOBA in 2023 that was actually 12 points lower than his expected number of .333. Additionally, his .359 BABIP in 2023 may not be as outlandish as his career .268 mark in the majors may suggest, as he’s never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at the Triple-A level in a season during his career. In addition, it’s possible his late-season numbers are skewed by the fact that the 24-year-old missed more than two months after he suffered a fractured foot from kicking a water cooler back in July.

Looking ahead to 2024, The Athletic’s David O’Brien relays that the Braves plan to have Kelenic and Vaughn Grissom compete for the everyday role in left field during the spring, with a platoon situation between the two possible as Grissom looks to split time between the left field and the infield dirt. That said, it certainly seems possible that Kelenic could earn an everyday role in Atlanta if he shows his step forward in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. Even if Kelenic simply repeats his 2023 campaign he would represent a notable upgrade over Eddie Rosario, who drew 122 starts in left field for the Braves last year while slashing just .255/.305/.450 (100 wRC+) in 516 trips to the plate.

To acquire Kelenic, the Braves take on the salaries of both Gonzales and White. Gonzales is owed $12.25MM in 2024, while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and a $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2026. While it’s not currently known how much cash Atlanta received in the deal, it’s fair to assume the Braves are taking on the majority of that nearly $30MM in guaranteed money, including $19.25MM in dollars owed this next season. Before accounting for the cash received from Seattle, the deal pushes Atlanta’s 2024 payroll to just over $224MM and just under $261MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. If that projection holds going forward, it would put the Braves just over the second luxury tax threshold, which sits at $257MM for the 2024 campaign.

Gonzales, 32 in February, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings across ten starts this season before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. Gonzales is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024 and, if healthy, could provide the Braves with a serviceable back-end rotation option who could give competition to Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder in Spring Training. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Gonzales had been a reliable source of innings for the Mariners in recent years, averaging 174 innings of work across four 162-game seasons between 2018 and 2022. Gonzales’s contract includes a $15MM club option for the 2025 season that does not include a buyout, though Gonzales would likely have to take a significant step forward in 2024 for the Braves to consider exercising that option.

White, 27, does not figure to be a contributor to the Braves over the life of his contract. The former top prospect owns a career .165/.235/.308 slash line in the majors and has not appeared in the big leagues since May 2021. Over the past two seasons, White has appeared in just 30 professional games with a slash line of just .200/.310/.397 at the Triple-A level during that time. White spent almost the entire 2023 campaign on the 60-day IL, first due to a left adductor strain and then thanks to hip surgery, though he too is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

In addition to taking on the salaries of White and Gonzales, the Braves parted with a pair of interesting young arms in Kowar and Phillips. Kowar’s stay in the Braves organization was a short one, as the righty had just been acquired from the Royals last month as the return in the Kyle Wright trade. As a former top-100 prospect and Kansas City’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Kowar is an intriguing piece despite his struggles in the majors to this point in his career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of his trade to Atlanta, Kowar averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 2023 after converting to full-time relief duties and thanks to his eligibility for a fourth option year in 2024 figures to provide the Mariners with a fireballing, optionable relief arm headed into next season. Phillips, meanwhile, was Atlanta’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 20-year-old has not yet made his professional debut after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but ranked as the Braves’ #7 prospect per MLB Pipeline prior to the swap.

As for the Mariners, the club is clearly in the midst of retooling their lineup. The club has traded both Kelenic and third baseman Eugenio Suarez and non-tendered DH Mike Ford since the offseason began while watching Teoscar Hernandez depart via free agency, leaving four major holes in the club’s lineup. That being said, the departures of those four players figure to help Seattle in their quest to improve their lineup’s contact skills next season; each of the aforementioned hitters struck out more than 30% of the time in 2024. Parting ways with four of the league’s most punchout prone bats is an excellent start toward that goal, even as the club faces an uphill battle in replacing the quartet’s production.

While replacing four members of the club’s starting lineup is no easy task, Seattle at least figures to have plenty of payroll space with which to accomplish that goal. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $115MM in 2024 pending the addition of cash considerations sent to Atlanta, while Adam Judge of The Seattle Times notes that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated today that the club’s payroll will “very likely” rise in 2024 relative to its 2023 total. The Mariners posted a payroll of $140MM in 2023, meaning the club should have more than $25MM worth of room to make additions to their lineup, though it’s unclear how much Seattle is willing to surpass that $140MM figure.

Even with that amount of money available for additions, it’s worth noting that the club would need to significantly increase payroll over its 2023 levels to be able to make even one impact addition on the level of, for example, Cody Bellinger or Juan Soto. Given the number of holes the Mariners will need to fill in their lineup, it seems more likely that the club will be limited to adding mid-level salaries to its payroll. The free agent market is unlikely to offer many solutions, with the best mid-level bats such as Hernandez and Matt Chapman being among the more strikeout-prone players available this winter.

That said, the club has reportedly discussed deals for both outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes with the Rays recently. Adding even one of those players would surely require significant capital in terms of prospects and young players, though it’s worth noting that the Rays appear to be on the hunt for controllable starting pitching, which the Mariners have an excess of. Speculatively speaking, swinging a deal for Paredes and/or Arozarena would allow Seattle to shore up its lineup without breaking the bank, allowing the club to pursue contact-oriented bats like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Whit Merrifield in free agency.

Astros, Diamondbacks Interested In Tucker Barnhart

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Veteran catcher Tucker Barnhart is drawing interest from teams in need of catching depth, per Ari Alexander of KPRC-2. Alexander adds that the Astros and Diamondbacks are among the teams with interest in Barnhart’s services.

Barnhart, 33 in January, was selected in the tenth round of the 2009 draft by the Reds and made his big league debut with the club back in 2014. A veteran of ten major league seasons, Barnhart has fashioned a lengthy major league career as a glove-first option behind the plate. Though he has never posted a wRC+ higher than 90 in his career and sports a career slash line of just .217/.289/.312, Barnhart emerged as one of the better defensive catchers in the league over his time in the majors. His +8 Fielding Run Value (per Statcast) in 2021 was tied for the third-best figure among all catchers that season, behind only Sean Murphy and Buster Posey. Combined with an 81 wRC+ in 2021 that was roughly average for a catcher that season, Barnhart had the look of a decent regular behind the plate when he was swapped from the Reds to the Tigers that offseason.

Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse for the veteran from there. Barnhart’s 2022 season was the worst offensive campaign he had delivered since his 21-game cup of coffee in the majors during the 2014 season. That said, Barnhart’s reputation as a quality defender behind the plate earned the veteran a two-year deal with the Cubs in free agency following the 2022 campaign despite his weak .221/.287/.267 slash line in 94 games with the Tigers.

That two-year pact proved to be a blunder on Chicago’s part, as Barnhart’s offense collapsed even further with a wRC+ of just 53 in 2023. Among players with at least as many major league plate appearances as Barnhart (123) in 2023, just 23 hitters posted a worse offensive season by that metric. Barnhart’s struggles and the emergence of youngster Miguel Amaya behind the plate in Chicago led the Cubs to designate Barnhart for assignment in mid-August. He caught on with the Dodgers on a minor league deal shortly thereafter but did not crack the club’s 40-man roster down the stretch, leaving him to return to free agency this winter.

While Barnhart appears to be a fringe option for even a backup role at this stage of his career, his decade of experience at the major league level and solid defensive reputation behind the plate could make him a worthwhile depth option for a club short on big league caliber catchers. Both Arizona and Houston fit that description, as each club has just two catchers on their 40-man roster with minimal depth in the upper minors. Barnhart is still owed $3.25MM from the Cubs in 2024 thanks to his aforementioned two-year pact with the club. That means that he could be a particularly valuable depth option for clubs as he would only need to be paid the pro-rated big league minimum for any time spent on the 40-man roster next year, allowing a payroll-conscious organization to cover for an injury to their primary catching tandem on the cheap.

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