In association with our Dodgers-related Offseason In Review post, we held a live chat so MLBTR’s audience could share their opinions about the Dodgers’ winter moves. Click here to read the chat transcript.
Archives for 2023
Jose Altuve To Miss About Two Months Due To Thumb Surgery
March 22: Brown today informed reporters, including Rome, that Altuve’s surgery has now taken place. The estimated timeline is two months before Altuve can resume baseball activities.
March 19: Astros general manager Dana Brown informed reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that second baseman Jose Altuve has a fractured right thumb and will undergo surgery in the “coming days.” There is no timetable for his return. Altuve left last night’s game in the World Baseball Classic after being hit on the hand by a pitch. Marly Rivera of ESPN had previously relayed that Altuve had indeed suffered a fracture, as feared.
The news obviously comes as a big blow to the defending World Series champions, as Altuve has been a cornerstone of the team for years. Not only has he been reliable in his excellent performance, but he’s also never really dealt with a significant injury until now. Over the past ten full seasons, going back to 2012, Altuve has never played fewer than 124 games in an individual campaign. That low tally came in 2019, when a hamstring strain sent him to the injured list for just over a month. Apart from that, all his trips to the IL have been fairly minor, meaning he is now likely facing the most lengthy absence of his career. Though the club hasn’t provided a timetable for Altuve’s return, there’s no doubt that he’s facing a significant absence. Bryce Harper suffered a thumb fracture last year and ended up missing two months of the season. Every injury and recovery is different, but it would be reasonable to expect a similar path ahead for the Astros second baseman.
Altuve, 33 in May, has been one of the better players in the league in that time but is coming off one of his best seasons to date. He hit 28 home runs, stole 18 bases and walked in a career-high 10.9% of his trips to the plate. His .300/.387/.533 batting line resulted in a 164 wRC+, a career-high figure that indicated he was 64% better than the league average hitter. Defensive metrics were split on the value of his glovework, but he was still ranked as being worth 6.6 wins above replacement by FanGraphs, his highest tally in that department since the infamous sign-stealing season of 2017.
The exact date of his return will depend upon how long it takes to heal and then how much time he needs to get back into game shape after his layoff, but it seems like it will be a decent chunk of the schedule either way. While Altuve figures to be back for the latter months of the season, the club will have to figure out how to man the keystone for the time being. Mauricio Dubón, David Hensley and Rylan Bannon are the options on the 40-man roster, while Dixon Machado is in camp as a non-roster invitee.
Dubón is the most experienced of the bunch, having played in 262 games at the big league level. He’s capable of playing each outfield position and the three infield spots to the left of first base, and is generally considered to be a good defender anywhere he’s placed. The problem is on offense, as he’s hit just .244/.287/.366 in his career for a wRC+ of 77. It’s a fairly similar story for Machado, who is considered solid with the glove at shortstop, second or third base, but has hit just .226/.285/.292 in the majors for a wRC+ of 56. He’s not currently on the 40-man and won’t be optionable if he’s selected at some point. Hensley had a great debut last year, but in a tiny sample of just 16 games. He was also good in Triple-A, however, hitting .298/.420/.478 over 104 games last year. Bannon has just five MLB games under his belt but has bounced around the waiver wire in the past year due to strong work in the minors.
That group gives the Astros plenty of options but none of them will be expected to replace the production of Altuve. It’s also possible that the club could look outside the organization for some help, but there are challenges to doing that at this time of year. The free agent market has been largely picked over, leaving veteran journeymen like Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Villar as some of the best options available. Trades are also difficult to line up at this time of year, with most teams generally feeling settled with their rosters as Opening Day approaches. Perhaps the Yankees would be willing to deal Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Gleyber Torres with youngsters like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza pushing for more playing time, but they might also prefer to hang onto those players just in case the younger guys struggle in their first extended tastes of major league action. As Spring Training winds down, teams will make their final cuts and a few more players will shake loose, though they might not be huge difference makers relative to the in-house options in Houston.
However the club decides to play things, they will no doubt be in a lesser position at second base for a while. They will surely still be in good shape overall, with a lineup of great hitters like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, José Abreu and Yordan Alvarez. They have incredibly made it to the ALCS in each of the past six years, going to the World Series in four of those seasons and winning it twice. They seem poised to be strong yet again, but they will now be challenged by a couple of notable absences in the early going, as Lance McCullers Jr. will open the season on the injured list as well.
Royals Option Nick Pratto, Maikel Garcia
The Royals announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned first baseman Nick Pratto, infielder Maikel Garcia and catcher Freddy Fermin to Triple-A Omaha.
Pratto, 24, will return for a third stint at a Triple-A level where he’s previously turned in a .241/.368/.528 batting line while hitting 38 home runs in 644 plate appearances. He had a strong showing this spring, batting .313/.378/.438 with a pair of doubles, a triple and a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio in 37 plate appearances. Pratto made his MLB debut in 2022, hitting .184/.271/.386 in 182 plate appearances. That said, he’s a former first-round pick (No. 14 in 2017) who entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-100 prospect. The Royals surely still view him as a potential long-term piece.
The presence of Vinnie Pasquantino at first base stands as a roadblock for Pratto, though heading into camp it was feasible that Pratto and Pasquantino would share the workloads at first base and designated hitter. At least in the early stages of the 2023 season, that won’t be the case, but Pratto’s demotion doesn’t necessarily indicate he’s in for a lengthy stay in Omaha. A strong early showing could put him right back in the big league plans. For the time being, it seems as though the Royals will use the DH spot to get at-bats for a number of players, including hot-hitting catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez.
The fact that Fermin was optioned out in spite of a .273/.360/.545 showing in 25 plate appearances seemingly indicates indication that Salvador Perez and Melendez will be the only catchers on the roster to begin the season. Fermin is the only other catcher on the Royals’ 40-man roster, although non-roster invitees Jakson Reetz and Jose Briceno are still in camp and could potentially be selected to the MLB roster.
Fermin, 27, made his big league debut in 2022 but appeared in just three games. He spent the bulk of the season in Omaha, where he batted .270/.365/.480 with 17 doubles and 15 homers in 348 plate appearances. At some point, it’s feasible to think the Royals could go with three catchers, allowing Melendez to log more time in the outfield and/or at designated hitter, but Fermin will head to Triple-A to begin the season.
Garcia, 23, is also being sent out despite a strong showing in Cactus League play. He’s posted a .355/.375/.516 showing with a homer, two doubles and two steals in 32 plate appearances. He split the bulk of the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .285/.359/.427 and logging regular work at shortstop. With Bobby Witt Jr., Nicky Lopez, Michael Massey, Hunter Dozier and Nate Eaton among the Royals’ infield options on the big league roster, the Royals have a crowded infield mix and seem to prefer Garcia getting regular at-bats in Omaha, which is sensible given that he’s one of the organization’s top-ranked prospects.
The Royals have more pitchers than position players on the 40-man roster, so optioning this trio out of big league camp seems to portend that as many as three non-roster invitees have a chance at claiming bench spots to open the year. Matt Duffy, Franmil Reyes, Johan Camargo, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Matt Beaty are among the non-roster veterans still in camp.
Brewers Notes: Burnes, Voit, Hiura, Bullpen
Brewers ace Corbin Burnes was one of several recent players to speak publicly about the arbitration process, voicing some disappointment last month in some aspects of the team’s approach to the trial. Burnes has now enlisted the Boras Corporation as his new representation moving forward, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).
Asked directly last month whether his relationship with the team had been damaged at all, Burnes candidly acknowledged that it had been to some extent, and that there was “really no getting around that.” Given his likely price tag on the open market, the former Cy Young winner was already a long-shot extension candidate for the Brewers, and the shift in representation won’t change that perception. The Boras Corporation has a reputation for pushing its players to reach the open market, though there are plenty of notable exceptions in recent years. Xander Bogaerts, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Paddack are all Boras clients who signed multi-year extensions that pushed back their respective paths to free agency.
The Brewers are entering the 2023 season intent on contending for the playoffs and, even after trading Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong this offseason, reportedly made clear to other clubs that stars like Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames were unavailable. Their first half will be one to watch closely. If Milwaukee falls out of contention, that trio will figure to all resurface in trade rumblings, given their relative proximity to free agency.
Each of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames is controllable only through the 2024 campaign. (Ditto Eric Lauer, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Bush and Adrian Houser.) Milwaukee probably wouldn’t aggressively shop that group, but the Brewers did make a tough call by trading Josh Hader when he had just a season and a half of club control remaining last summer. If nothing else, teams will be trying to pry some of that talent away from Milwaukee if the Brewers indeed drop out of the postseason race before this year’s trade deadline.
Turning to more immediate matters, the Brewers have some key personnel decisions looming in the near future. Last week, I outlined the dilemma they’re facing regarding Keston Hiura and their right-handed-hitting bench depth, and GM Matt Arnold touched on the situation yesterday (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Hiura and non-roster invitee Luke Voit are competing for a similar role with the Brewers, and Arnold acknowledged that the club has some “tough decisions” to make. Arnold praised the “tremendous job” Voit has done so far in camp, noting that he’s done “everything he can possibly do” to make the club.
The 32-year-old Voit has indeed impressed, hitting .316/.333/.526 with a pair of homers — albeit with an ugly 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 39 plate appearances. Hiura is hitting .156/.229/.219 with a 42.9% strikeout rate (15 punchouts in 35 plate appearances). Arnold praised the “electricity” in Hiura’s bat and touted the upside he’s flashed in the past, but the former first-round pick and top prospect is out of minor league options hasn’t performed with much consistency in recent years. Since his outstanding rookie season, Hiura’s strikeout woes have climbed, and he’s lost his grip on a regular spot in the lineup.
Voit had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract last week but agreed to push the date on that back to this Friday. The decision on whether to select him is in many ways linked to Hiura and perhaps to fellow right-handed-hitting bench options like Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller. Without mentioning specific names, Arnold seemingly acknowledged as much, stating: “…a lot of this comes down to not just [Voit], but the people around him and how this all works together is so important.” Both Brosseau and Miller offer more defensive versatility than Voit and Hiura, but both have minor league options remaining as well.
In the bullpen, the Brewers are continuing to narrow the competition. They optioned righties Jake Cousins and Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville yesterday, but manager Craig Counsell made clear that both are squarely in the team’s 2023 plans (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).
“Jake and Peguero, those guys are going to definitely pitch for us,” Counsell said, adding that the calls could come early in the season if needed. Cousins has been impressive in brief looks over the past two seasons, showing huge ability to miss bats but also some worrying command issues. Peguero, acquired from the Angels in the previously mentioned Renfroe swap, fanned 11 of 35 hitters (31.4%) this spring but was always at risk of being sent out given the number of out-of-options arms the Brewers are currently rostering.
None of Houser, Joel Payamps, Javy Guerra, Bryse Wilson or Bush can be optioned to the minors. The only optionable members of the bullpen are closer Devin Williams, setup man Peter Strzelecki and southpaw Hoby Milner, but all three (Williams in particular, of course) are generally locked into spots, as are Bush and Houser.
Offseason In Review Chat Transcript: Atlanta Braves
MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with each organization’s Offseason In Review posts. Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with Anthony Franco about the Braves’ offseason.
Mets Option Francisco Alvarez
The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned top catching prospect Francisco Alvarez to Triple-A Syracuse. The move has been widely expected, given the presence of both Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido on the roster.
Alvarez, who made his MLB debut last year at just 20 years of age, underwent ankle surgery last October. While he was healthy enough to participate in spring training, he had a rough showing in camp, going 3-for-28 with a pair of walks and ten strikeouts in 31 trips to the plate. Alvarez turned 21 in November and has just 45 Triple-A games and last year’s five big league games under his belt, so it’s hardly surprising that the organizational preference is for him to continue to develop with regular reps behind the plate in Triple-A, rather than as part of a three-catcher setup with occasional DH reps at the MLB level.
Heading into the 2023 season, Alvarez is ranked among the game’s top 10 overall prospects at each of Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic and ESPN. He tore through Double-A pitching as a 20-year-old last season, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 home runs, a 12.2% walk rate and a 24% strikeout rate. Alvarez’s dipped a bit in Triple-A, where he was one of the league’s youngest players but still hit .234/.382/.443 with nine homers, a 17.1% walk rate and 26.3% strikeout rate in 199 trips to the plate. He went 2-for-12 with a homer and a double in his brief MLB debut.
The Mets still view Alvarez as their catcher of the future, and with good reason. He’s a legitimate power bat with a chance to stick behind the plate and develop into an average or better defender at a premium position. While many catchers are slower to develop than other prospects, Alvarez had success at the plate in the upper minors before even reaching his 21st birthday.
Following the offseason trade of James McCann to the Orioles, the Mets expect to use Narvaez as their primary catcher — at least early in the season. The veteran backstop is coming off a disappointing 2022 season in Milwaukee but hit a combined .266/.351/.403 in five seasons prior and has developed into one of the game’s better defenders at the position in recent years. Narvaez inked a two-year, $15MM deal with the Mets, but the second season of that contract is a player option, so with a good year it’s quite possible he’ll return to the open market in search of a larger and lengthier pact.
An ideal scenario for all parties would see Narvaez enjoy a strong season while Alvarez eventually forces his way onto the roster with a well-rounded performance in Syracuse. That’d give Alvarez the opportunity to ease into the big league picture later in the season while setting the stage for Narvaez to decline his player option and Alvarez to ascend to the starter’s role in 2024. The aforementioned Nido, meanwhile, can serve as a defensive-minded backup in both 2023 and 2024 — his final two seasons of club control.
Things don’t always go according to plan, of course, and it’s possible that injuries or poor performances from some members of this catching trio will necessitate an earlier recall for Alvarez or lead to Narvaez exercising his player option after a shaky year. As things stand, however, it appears likely that Alvarez will finish out the 2023 season with less than a full year of big league service time, meaning he’d still be controllable for six full seasons — all the way through 2029. He picked up six days of MLB service in 2022, so he’d need an additional 166 days on the Major League roster or injured list in order to reach a full year of service and accelerate his free-agent trajectory by a year.
The Opener: WBC, Rule Changes, MLBTR Chats
With just eight days remaining until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Storybook ending to the WBC
Last night’s World Baseball Classic final proved to be an instant classic as Team Japan beat Team USA 3-2. Japan, undefeated during the tournament, jumped out to an early lead. Trea Turner’s WBC-record fifth home run and an eighth-inning bomb from Kyle Schwarber following a 10-pitch at bat against Yu Darvish made it a one-run game headed into the ninth, when Shohei Ohtani took the mound to close out the game. After a leadoff walk to Jeff McNeil, Ohtani induced a double play from Mookie Betts to bring his Angels teammate and fellow superstar Mike Trout to the plate as both the potential final out and tying run. Trout and Ohtani battled to a full count before Trout ultimately struck out swinging on a slider, giving Japan their third WBC championship.
Trout and Ohtani are both planning to play in the WBC again when it returns in 2026. “I already told [Team USA] I’m doing the next one, so I’m already in,” Trout said on FS1’s pregame show last night. “If I’m DHing, playing left field, whatever they want, I’m in, I’m in.” Ohtani, the WBC MVP, called last night’s win “the best moment in my life” and said he would “love to enter [the WBC] again.”
2. Tweaks to new rules incoming
Yesterday, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters, including The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli, that adjustments to the new rules being implemented for the 2023 season were on the way ahead of Opening Day. These adjustments, which are being made at the behest of the MLBPA, are expected to be fairly minor. Even minor changes would have to be implemented very soon, as with barely a week left before Opening Day, teams and players will want as much time as possible to acclimate to any changes made. Manfred notes that the changes will be announced in the coming days, so clubs could be informed as soon as today.
3. MLBTR chats today
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco is hosting a pair of live chats with readers today. First up, at 10am CT, is a Braves-centric chat in conjunction with the Braves edition of MLBTR’s Offseason in Review series. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link allows you to follow along when the chat goes live or read the transcript when it’s completed. Later today, at 5pm CT, Anthony will also be hosting his weekly live chat with an MLB-wide focus. You can click here to leave a question, participate live, or read the transcript of that chat.
Twins Planning To Use Byron Buxton Primarily As Designated Hitter Early In The Season
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, that Byron Buxton will work primarily at designated hitter early in the season. According to Baldelli, while Buxton is “doing great” health-wise, the club wants to use him as a DH early in the year in order to hopefully keep him healthy for the full 2023 season. Baldelli did not specify how long that would last beyond noting that the club planned to more slowly build him up to center field work.
This decision is sure to cut into Buxton’s value early in the year, as despite his excellence at the plate (150 wRC+ across the 2021-22 campaigns), a great deal of his value comes from being among the very best defensive center fielders in the sport. That being said, it’s an understandable plan for the Twins to go into the season nonetheless. Buxton has only played 100 games once in his career, in 2017.
He has played just 307 games since then, reaching only 92 contests last year before suffering a right hip strain in August. Buxton also played through right knee issues until that point, eventually electing to shut things down once the Twins were knocked out of playoff contention. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee in September.
The defensive drop-off that comes from using Buxton as a DH might not be as severe as one would expect considering the Twins’ excellent outfield defense. Michael A. Taylor, whom the Twins acquired from the Royals earlier this offseason, has posted +22 Outs Above Average over the past two seasons. With Taylor manning center field while flanked by Joey Gallo and Max Kepler in the outfield corners, the Twins will retain Gold Glove caliber defense across the outfield even while Buxton isn’t playing the field.
The Twins don’t go into 2023 with an established everyday designated hitter. Corner infielders Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda can rotate through those spots, while utility infielders Nick Gordon and Donovan Solano could also get reps there. With Jorge Polanco potentially beginning the season on the injured list, the Twins might have to rely on that duo at second base in the early going. Polanco has ramped up slowly this spring after his 2022 campaign was cut short by a left knee issue.
Orioles Notes: Rodriguez, Means, Santander
Orioles fans are eagerly awaiting the arrival of top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who’s squarely in the mix for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. That shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however, Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun writes. The O’s are planning to manage Rodriguez’s innings count this season anyhow, and doing so in the minors will be easier than at the Major League level. If Rodriguez does head to Norfolk to begin the season, the Orioles could look to any of Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, or Spenser Watkins to open the year on the starting staff.
Rodriguez, 23, was the No. 11 overall pick in 2018 and is widely regarded as one of the sport’s top overall pitching prospects. He posted a brilliant 2.20 ERA with a 35.8% strikeout rate against a 7.7% walk rate at Triple-A last year, though that dominance came in a relatively small sample of 69 2/3 innings. The 6’5″ hurler was limited to just 75 2/3 frames on the season overall, thanks to a Grade 2 lat strain that wiped out his entire June, July and August. Upon returning, he allowed nine runs with a 29-to-14 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings — a notable step back from his early-season dominance. He’s also been hit hard in his past two spring outings and now has yielded 10 runs (seven earned) on 13 hits and seven walks with 14 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings.
The sky is the limit for Rodriguez, whom the organization envisions as a potential ace at the front of the starting staff for years to come, but that optimism will also lead to some understandable caution with regard to his 2023 usage.
A couple more notes on the Orioles…
- The O’s are aiming for a July return for left-hander John Means, who’s on the mend from 2022 Tommy John surgery, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The southpaw said this week that he’s thrown five or six bullpen sessions so far this spring, and he progressed to throwing his changeup in his most recent effort. Kubatko notes that Means could begin throwing breaking balls in his mound sessions at some point in early April. There’s still a ways to go, as he’ll need to build up to the point where he can throw all of his pitches, then face live hitters, then embark on what’s sure to be a lengthy minor league rehab stint as he builds up to game readiness. Provided the recovery goes according to plan, Means should have a rotation spot waiting for him once he’s ready. The 29-year-old (30 next month) was Baltimore’s best starter when healthy, pitching to a combined 3.72 ERA with a 21.2% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.1% walk rate in 356 2/3 innings from 2019-22.
- Baltimore will get corner outfielder Anthony Santander some reps at first base during the final week of Spring Training, skipper Brandon Hyde announced this morning (via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Santander logged four innings at the position early in exhibition play before leaving the club for a few weeks to represent Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. The 28-year-old has never played the infield in a major league game. Aside from 24 appearances in center back in 2019, he’s played exclusively corner outfield at the big league level. Santander’s only first base experience in a meaningful game came back in 2016, when he made nine appearances there while in High-A. Of course, the O’s aren’t planning to deploy him regularly there over the coming season. He’ll be in right field on most days, with the club hoping he can branch out to offer some cover behind starting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle if needed. Baltimore acquired Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Diaz as non-roster first base options this offseason, adding some left-handed depth behind the righty-swinging Mountcastle.
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?
The AL East was perhaps the strongest division in baseball last season, with three teams that made the postseason, four that finished above .500, and a fifth place team that would have finished third in most other divisions. Given that divisional strength last season, it’s no surprise that Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds give every team in the AL East at least an 8% chance to make the playoffs. By contrast, no other division’s projected last place team tops Detroit’s 3.1% odds. With Opening Day just over a week away, let’s take a look at the AL East’s five clubs (in order of their finish in the 2022 standings) in search of the division’s next champion.
New York Yankees (99-63 in 2022)
The Yankees were historically dominant in the first half of the 2022 season, but struggled to a 43-42 finish in the regular season after the calendar flipped to July, largely buoyed by the heroics of AL MVP (and pending free agent) Aaron Judge. Most of the focus this offseason in the Bronx was on retaining Judge, which they did on a nine-year deal. They also re-signed Anthony Rizzo to lock down first base, but signed just two new players to big league deals this offseason: lefty ace Carlos Rodon signed a six-year deal while reliever Tommy Kahnle signed on for two years. What’s worth, both of those free agent acquisitions are expected to open the season on the injured list alongside trade deadline pickups Harrison Bader and Frankie Montas.
Between an offseason marked by a low quantity (though high quality) of additions and a slew of spring injuries, this Yankees team looks unlikely to reach the heights they did in the first half of 2022, having lost the likes of Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter to free agency this offseason, but perhaps healthy returns from the likes of Rodon and Bader can help them improve upon their second half struggles from last season, to say nothing of exciting prospects like Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe who seem likely to impact the club at some point this year.
Toronto Blue Jays (92-70 in 2022)
After a solid campaign that saw the Blue Jays return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2016, Toronto was aggressive in mixing up their roster throughout the offseason. In an effort to get more left-handed and improve the defense, the club added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield mix at the expense of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while also landing Brandon Belt to solidify the DH spot. As for the pitching staff, Chris Bassitt was brought in to solidify the middle of the rotation behind Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, while Erik Swanson will strengthen the back of the Toronto bullpen.
While the Blue Jays certainly made significant changes over the course of the season, whether they can surpass the Yankees to claim the division crown will likely require returns to form for some players who performed below expectations in 2022, such as Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom figure to open the season in the rotation despite posting ERAs north of 5.00 last season.
Tampa Bay Rays (86-76 in 2022)
After making their fourth consecutive postseason in 2022, the Rays had a very quiet offseason, with no major trade acquisitions and right-hander Zach Eflin standing as their lone major league signing. Indeed, it seems most of Tampa Bay’s resources were dedicated to extensions, as they agreed to long-term deals with Pete Fairbanks, Yandy Diaz, and Jeffery Springs shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. That left the roster churn this offseason to be defined by departures rather than additions, as key players like Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Zunino and Ji-Man Choi departed the organization.
Still, the Rays have plenty of assets in place with which to make things interesting, as young players like Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Isaac Parades turned in excellent performances in 2022. With so few changes to the roster following a season where they finished 13 games back in the division race, however, the Rays are likely going to have to bank on improved health from stars Tyler Glasnow and Wander Franco along with bigger contributions from players who struggled last season like Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls and Francisco Mejia if they are to claim the NL East crown this year.
Baltimore Orioles (83-79 in 2022)
The Orioles were one of the most fascinating stories of the 2022 season, as the club surged in the summer months toward surprise contention after not having won more than 54 games since 2017, though they ultimately failed to make the postseason. With young talent like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez all either already in the big leagues or knocking on the door, with still more prospects to come, it seemed as though the rebuild in Baltimore was over.
Expectations have surely been tempered among the Orioles faithful after a relatively quiet offseason, however. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens made up the club’s free agent signings this offseason. That said, Mike Elias’s front office did fairly well on the trade market, picking up Cole Irvin to solidify the rotation and James McCann to back up Rutschman. After a surprise surge over .500 in 2022, it’s easy to imagine the Orioles slipping back underwater in 2023. That being said, with so much young talent breaking into the majors and percolating in the upper levels of the farm system, they certainly can’t be ruled out from making a surprise push into playoff contention or even toward the division title.
Boston Red Sox (78-84 in 2022)
2022 was a difficult season for the Red Sox, as the club finished three games under .500 despite opting not to sell off valuable players like Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez who went on to walk in free agency this offseason. The headline move of this offseason for the Red Sox has to be Rafael Devers signing a ten-year extension back in January, but the Red Sox were active players in the offseason marketplace as well, adding Mastaka Yoshida, Corey Kluber, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Adalberto Mondesi, among others. Still, the departures of Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha, in addition to the deadline trade that sent Christian Vazquez out of the organization, all left plenty of question marks on the roster.
Those questions are particularly worrisome up the middle, where the Red Sox figure to use Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez, Reese McGuire, and Christian Arroyo to open the season. The Red Sox enter 2023 with more than enough talent on the roster to attempt to return to contention this season. That being said, there’s enough question marks and holes in the roster that it’s just as easy to see another sub-.500 season from this club as it is to see a return to the playoffs after missing out in 2022.
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While this division ultimately seems most likely to come down to the Yankees and the Blue Jays, who both finished well ahead of the competition in 2022 and improved most significantly over the offseason, the AL East could certainly see all five of its clubs in the thick of the postseason hunt come the summertime. What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Yankees reclaim the crown, will the Blue Jays or Rays surge from their Wild Card spots to capture the division title, or will the Orioles or Red Sox surprise? Let us know in the poll below.
Who Will Win The AL East In 2023
Toronto Blue Jays
39.95%
(4,401 votes)
New York Yankees
36.10%
(3,976 votes)
Baltimore Orioles
8.38%
(923 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays
8.19%
(902 votes)
Boston Red Sox
7.38%
(813 votes)
Total Votes: 11,015
