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Archives for 2024
Braves Interested In Zach Eflin
The Braves are “keeping a close eye on” Zach Eflin as a potential trade target prior to the deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. Rotation help has been circled as a likely need for Atlanta ever since Spencer Strider was lost for the season to an internal brace surgery, and Eflin stands out as a potentially intriguing choice for several reasons.
First and foremost, Eflin is again pitching well in terms of bottom-line results, with a 4.12 ERA over 10 starts and 59 innings. The right-hander continues to be among the best control specialists in the game with a sterling 1.6% walk rate, though there are some red flags in other notable categories. Eflin is again among the league leaders in barrels even if his barrel rate is only slightly below average, but his hard-hit ball rate (41.6%) and strikeout rate (17.9%) are also both subpar. He was well above average in both categories in 2023, when Eflin’s first season in Tampa Bay resulted in a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.
A contender like the Braves won’t necessarily be scared off by Eflin’s 2024 numbers, as they are very familiar with Eflin’s work after dealing with him as a division rival during Eflin’s years with the Phillies. Durability might also be a concern given Eflin’s long history of knee problems, but he tossed 182 2/3 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs, and had only a brief IL stint due to a bad back.
These are all good reasons why the Rays themselves might naturally want to keep Eflin in their own rotation as they continue to vie for another postseason berth. Tampa Bay is 11-6 in its last 17 games, a hot streak that has gotten the club back up to a 25-23 record after a mediocre April. Eflin has also been a stabilizing force in a rotation beset by injuries, even if some reinforcements are on the way. Ryan Pepiot could return from the 15-day IL this week in his recovery from a leg contusion, Shane Baz (currently on a rehab assignment) and Jeffrey Springs are tentatively expected to return from Tommy John surgery rehab in July or August, and Drew Rasmussen is on roughly the same timeline after he went an internal brace procedure last July.
If at least one of Springs, Baz, or Rasmussen is already back by the deadline and the Rays are comfortable with the recovery status of the others, it is possible Tampa Bay might feel comfortable counting on these internal arms to help fill the gap created by trading Eflin. It is a risk that most teams might not take, and yet as always with the Rays, payroll could be a factor in their decision-making. Eflin is in the second season of a three-year, $40MM contract that was paid out as $11MM in both 2023 and 2024, and then $18MM in 2025. (He also receives a $1MM bonus in the event of a trade.)
Moving Eflin would allow the Rays to avoid the backloaded final portion of that contract, and get the remainder of Eflin’s 2024 salary also off the books. Even if Eflin isn’t dealt at the deadline, it stands to reason that the Rays might explore moving him this offseason, similar to how the club dealt Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers last winter before Glasnow was owed $25MM in 2024 under the terms of his previous contract.
Acquiring Eflin would also have some interesting payroll implications for a Braves team whose projected luxury tax number (as per RosterResource) sits at approximately $272.5MM. This is already well into the second tax tier and not far off the third tier that begins at $277MM. Atlanta hasn’t been shy in spending big in pursuit of another World Series title, but crossing the $277MM threshold carries the secondary penalty of a 10-slot drop for the Braves’ first selection in the 2025 draft. Eflin being controlled through 2025 might carry some particular for the Braves, however, as Max Fried and Charlie Morton will both be free agents this winter.
Alex Anthopoulos and Erik Neander are two of the most creative executives in baseball, so any number of interesting Atlanta/Tampa trades could be devised that would perhaps allow Eflin to change teams while also allowing the Braves to stay under that third luxury tax tier. The Rays could eat a larger portion of Eflin’s contract in order to obtain a better prospect return from the Braves, or perhaps a third team could be brought into the talks to balance things out.
Atlanta’s rotation has still been pretty solid even without Strider, as Braves starters entered Sunday with a combined 3.44 ERA (tenth-best in baseball). Fried, Morton, Chris Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez have all been good to great, though Sale’s durability is always a question mark and Lopez (who has a sparkling 1.34 ERA) is in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020, and he hasn’t tossed more than 66 innings in a season since 2019. Bryce Elder is the fifth starter and Darius Vines, Allan Winans, Huascar Ynoa, and top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep provide additional depth, though a pitcher like Eflin could be more of a proven commodity for a team with championship aspirations.
AL East Notes: Houck, Kahnle, Santander
The Red Sox locked up Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela to contract extensions this past spring, but no deal developed between the team and Tanner Houck, even though the two sides had some negotiations. Houck confirmed to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that some “discussions” took place, “but we’re at where we are now. I put that behind me whenever we shook hands and said, ’Let’s go out and win as many games as we can.’ ” There’s nothing preventing Houck and the Sox from restarting talks, though it would seem that Houck (like most players) prefers to save contractual matters for the offseason to cut down on potential distractions.
The right-hander also doesn’t even reach arbitration eligibility until this coming winter, so since he is already under team control through 2027, Boston might not feel too much urgency to lock Houck up on an extension. Of course, given how Houck has pitched this season, the Sox might’ve missed their window for landing Houck at a relative bargain price. Houck has broken out with a 2.17 ERA over 58 innings and nine starts, and his secondary metrics are highlighted by impressive grounder (55.2%), walk (4.7%) and barrel (3.7%) rates. Even in a season marked by impressive pitching around baseball, Houck has stood out, as his 1.9 fWAR is behind only Tarik Skubal as the highest in the league.
More from the AL East…
- Tommy Kahnle is on pace to be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to the Yankees’ game on Wednesday, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post). Kahnle threw ten pitches in a scoreless inning for Double-A Somerset today, which marks his fifth and likely final rehab outing. The reliever hasn’t pitched in a big league game since September 20, as a bout of shoulder inflammation prematurely ended his 2023 campaign, and then more inflammation this spring led to a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL. Getting Kahnle back in good health will add another yet quality arm to a New York relief corps that led the majors in bullpen ERA entering today’s action.
- Anthony Santander has been battling a bruised left knee since Wednesday, when he collided with the outfield wall in pursuit of a Bo Bichette fly ball. After the Orioles had an off-day Thursday, Santander felt well enough to serve as the DH in Baltimore’s last two games, but didn’t play at all in today’s 6-3 win over the Mariners. Santander told MLB.com and other media that he is hoping one more day of rest will help calm the still-lingering soreness in his knee, and he described his knee as feeling “about 75 percent” when running, so some more DH duty might be in order. Santander is hitting .210/.290/.427 with seven homers over 176 plate appearances this season, still good for a respectable 106 wRC+ but also a comparative weak link in the powerful Orioles lineup.
- For most on the Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays, check out another set of AL East Notes published earlier today on MLBTR.
Rockies Select Matt Koch
The Rockies announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Matt Koch. Right-hander Jake Bird was placed on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation to clear a spot on the club’s active roster, while infielder Julio Carreras was designated for assignment to open up a spot on the 40-man roster.
Koch, 33, was a third-round pick by the Mets in the 2012 draft but made his debut with the Diamondbacks in 2016. In parts of four seasons with Arizona, Koch swung between the rotation and bullpen but generally struggled badly throughout his time in the majors with a 4.88 ERA and 6.00 FIP in 125 1/3 innings. Koch departed the Dbacks organization following the 2019 season and did not pitch in the big leagues over the next two seasons before eventually resurfacing with the Mariners for four appearances in 2022, though he struggled badly with an 8.31 ERA and 8.42 FIP in 4 1/3 frames.
That eventually led Koch to sign with the Rockies on a minor league deal prior to the 2023 season. He was a serviceable member of the club’s bullpen last year, pitching to a 5.12 ERA (good for a roughly league average 97 ERA+ due to the inflated offensive environment of Coors Field) with a roughly matching 5.07 FIP in 39 appearances for Colorado last year. While he struck out just 16.6% of batters faced, he limited walks to a 5.5% clip while generating groundballs and a strong 49% clip. Looking ahead, the Rockies are surely hoping that Koch will offer the club adequate middle relief from the left-hand side once again this year, as he’ll enter the club’s bullpen as the only lefty relief option besides closer Jalen Beeks.
Making room for Koch on the active roster is Bird, who is headed to the injured list with elbow inflammation. The 28-year-old righty was a fifth-round pick by the Rockies in the 2018 draft and has pitched for the club in each of the last three seasons, including a solid 2023 campaign where he posted a 4.33 ERA and 3.55 FIP in 89 1/3 innings of work. While that seemingly set Bird up to handle key leverage innings for Colorado out of the bullpen this year, things haven’t gone according to plan as he’s struggled badly to the tune of a 6.10 ERA and nearly matching 6.34 FIP in 20 2/3 innings of work prior to his placement on the injured list today. Bird’s timetable for return is not currently clear, though the Rockies are surely hoping he’ll look more like his 2023 self upon his return.
As for Carreras, the 24-year-old first appeared in pro ball with the Rockies back in 2018 and entered the season as a fairly well-regarded prospect in the club’s farm system thanks to his strong infield defense, power potential, and proximity to the big leagues. That was enough for the club to decide to add Carreras to the 40-man roster this winter, and a strong .304/.388/.461 performance in the Dominican Winter League this past offseason seemingly further set up Carreras as a potential infield depth option for the big league club this year.
Unfortunately. Carreras’s prospects have taken a turn for the worse since the season began. In 38 games at the Triple-A level this season, Carreras has slashed just .181/.247/.269. That’s a tough slash line to swallow at any level of pro ball, though it’s especially weak given the heightened offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, where the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate plays its games. Colorado will have one week to either trade Carreras or attempt to pass him through waivers. If he successfully clears waivers, the Rockies will have the opportunity to assign Carreras outright to the minor leagues and maintain him as non-roster depth.
Astros Notes: Abreu, McCormick, Urquidy
The Astros are likely to return a couple of regulars to the big league roster in the coming days according to GM Dana Brown, who told club radio broadcaster Robert Ford (as relayed by Chandler Rome of The Athletic and Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that both first baseman Jose Abreu and outfielder Chas McCormick are nearing returns to action.
Per Kawahara, Brown indicated to Ford that McCormick, who has been out of action since late April due to a hamstring strain, could return to the Astros lineup as soon as tomorrow. The 29-year-old scuffled a bit to open the season prior to his injury, slashing a lackluster .236/.325/.278 in 21 games prior to the injury. Even so, the return of McCormick could provide a noticeable boost to the club’s offense assuming he’s healthy. After all, he was one of the club’s top offensive contributors last year when he posted a strong .273/.353/.489 slash line in 115 games. That strong showing appeared to earn him the opportunity to take a larger role with the club going forward, although given the strong performance of Jake Meyers as the club’s regular center fielder in McCormick’s absence it’s certainly possible that those circumstances have changed.
As for Abreu, Rome indicates that the veteran could join the club in Oakland on Friday for their series opener against the A’s. Abreu agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues at the end of last month after scuffling to a brutal .099/.156/.113 slash line in 77 trips to the plate this season. The 37-year-old got into his first game action in a pair of Florida Complex League games the past two days, going 2-for-10 with a double and a walk in those appearances. Brown added that Abreu is expected to get into “a few” more games before he returns to the Astros, although it’s not yet clear if those will be additional FCL games or if he’ll instead advance to the Triple-A level as he prepares to face big league pitching for the first time in nearly a month.
Abreu is in the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM deal he signed with the Astros prior to the 2023 season. So far, that deal has not gone how either side was surely hoping. In addition to Abreu’s brutal start to the 2024 campaign, the veteran is coming off a down season in 2023 where he slashed just .237/.296/.383 in 141 games with Houston. That performance resulted in a wRC+ of just 86, making 2023 the first below average offensive season of the first baseman’s career. While Abreu has been away from the club, Jon Singleton has primarily handled first base duties and has held his own in the role with a .222/.322/.364 slash line that’s 1% better than league average by measure of wRC+.
In other Astros news, right-hander Jose Urquidy threw 59 pitches in a rehab start at the Double-A level last night. According to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, the right-hander is set to make one more rehab start before being activated from the injured list. That Urquidy is nearing a return is surely a major relief for Houston, as the club’s starting rotation has been fraught with difficulties throughout the season. Rotation stalwarts Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez have each spent time on the injured list already this year, while J.P. France, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti have all struggled badly with ERAs north of 7.00. Right-hander Ronel Blanco emerged early in the season as a surprising anchor for the club’s rotation, but the righty is in the midst of a 10-game suspension for violating the league’s foreign substance policy that has put a further strain on Houston’s pitching apparatus.
Given those major struggles, it would be a huge help for the Astros if Urquidy can even deliver roughly average results out of the rotation. That was hardly an issue for the 29-year-old earlier in his career, as he pitched to a solid 3.74 ERA with a 4.35 FIP in 63 career appearances through the end of the 2022 season. Unfortunately, the right-hander struggled significantly last season and posted a 5.29 ERA (79 ERA+) with a 5.38 FIP in 63 innings between the rotation and bullpen as his strikeout rate dipped to a measly 16.4% while his walk rate crept up to 9.1%. Despite those struggles, the right-hander figures to slot into the rotation in place of Arrighetti or Brown and allow the club to either move the youngsters to the bullpen or allow them to work things out in the minors.
Guardians Notes: Kwan, DeLauter, Williams
Guardians fans received a positive update today regarding the status of injured outfielder Steven Kwan. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com) this morning that the club is hoping that Kwan can begin a rehab assignment within the next seven to ten days. The 26-year-old was placed on the 10-day IL earlier this month due to what was described as an “acute” hamstring strain and was initially expected to miss around a month of action.
Now two weeks out from his initial diagnosis, it appears that Kwan remains on pace to meet that timeline. It’s an encouraging update, particularly given the fact that manager Steven Vogt indicated to reporters (per the Associated Press) on Friday that while Kwan had resumed baseball activities and was running “relatively pain-free,” there was still no clear timetable for his return to the majors. Today’s addendum provides a bit more clarity regarding the status of the third-year outfielder.
Cleveland figures to be particularly antsy for Kwan to return to action given the incredible start he was off to at the time of his injury. In 145 trips to the plate with the Guardians this season, Kwan has slashed an incredible .353/.407/.496 with three home runs, six doubles, and two triples. That home run total is particularly impressive given the fact that Kwan’s career high homer total is just six, a figure he achieved over the course of 638 plate appearances during his rookie season. Estevan Florial has handled left field in Kwan’s absence but is hitting a mediocre .189/.263/.400 in 32 games this season.
Kwan isn’t the only outfielder making progress in his recovery from injury, as Bell also notes that top outfield prospect Chase DeLauter has resumed baseball activities. The club’s first-round pick in the 2022 draft, DeLauter entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-30 prospect in the game but suffered a fractured fifth metatarsal in his left foot earlier this month. There was some initial concern at the time of the injury that surgery would be required, as it was when DeLauter previously suffered a fractured foot during the 2022-23 offseason.
Fortunately, that did not come to pass and it appears that DeLauter is already making excellent progress towards a return to action as Bell notes that he’s currently hitting on the field, though he hasn’t yet begun a running progression. DeLauter was off to a tough start at Double-A this year prior to this injury, having slashed just .197/.296/.295 in 16 games. Even so, it’s not hard to imagine the youngster taking off and reaching Triple-A before the end of the year in the event that he hits the ground running upon his return to action, a timeline that could potentially put him on the big league radar for 2025 or perhaps even a September call-up.
Also making progress towards a return is right-hander Gavin Williams, who according to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker threw a 50-pitch bullpen session on Wednesday and was scheduled to throw again on Friday. The 24-year-old has not yet pitched in the majors this season after opening the season on the 60-day IL due to discomfort in his right elbow, but appears to be making good progress in his rehab and could be an option for Cleveland sometime next month. Williams’s return would provide a major boost to the Guardians, who have seen both Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco struggle during their time in the rotation this year. Williams, meanwhile, pitched to a sterling 3.29 ERA with a 4.09 FIP in sixteen starts for the club during his rookie season last year.
Dodgers Add Anthony Banda To Active Roster
The Dodgers announced a series of roster moves today, highlighted by the club adding left-hander Anthony Banda to the active roster. Right-hander Landon Knack was recalled from Triple-A alongside Banda, while righties J.P. Feyereisen and Ricky Vanasco were both optioned to Triple-A. Right-hander Connor Brogdon was transferred to the 60-day injured list to make room for Banda on the 40-man roster.
L.A. acquired Banda, 30, from the Guardians on Friday, but the lefty had not been on Cleveland’s 40-man roster and therefore did not require a corresponding 40-man move until he was formally added to the roster today. The lefty signed a minor league deal with Cleveland back in January and impressed over 17 innings of work at the Triple-A level, where he struck out a whopping 37.9% of batters faced en route to a 2.12 ERA in 12 appearances prior to the trade.
A tenth-round pick by the Brewers in the 2012 draft, Banda has appeared in parts of seven big league seasons since he made his debut with the Diamondbacks in 2017. In all, the lefty has collected 90 big league appearances with seven different clubs but struggled at virtually every stop along the way. His career ERA sits at 5.69 in the big leagues despite a decent 4.35 FIP, although Banda’s big strikeout numbers in the minors could change his fortunes if they manage to translate to the big league level. After all, Banda has posted a career strikeout rate of just 19.9% to this point in his career, and his minor league strikeout rate over a full season peaked at just 26.9% at Triple-A with the Rays back in 2018. Clearly, the Dodgers are intrigued enough by the possibilities of Banda’s newfound swing-and-miss to give him a shot in their bullpen.
Joining the club’s roster alongside Banda is Knack, 26. The rookie right-hander is set to make his fourth spot start at the big league level of the season today and has generally gotten strong results despite weak peripherals to this point in his big league career. In 16 innings of work in the majors this season, Knack has posted a 2.81 ERA despite a meager 16.9% strikeout rate and three home runs allowed during that time. Those shaky underlying numbers have left Knack with a 5.52 FIP, although he’s posted a decent 4.15 ERA across five starts at the Triple-A level to this point in the season.
Making room for Banda and Knack on the roster are Feyereisen and Vanasco, both of whom are headed to Triple-A after brief stints in the Dodgers bullpen. Vanasco ultimately appeared in just one game for L.A. before being optioned, though he impressed with two perfect frames and recorded a strikeout in his big league debut. As for Feyereisen, the 31-year-old’s return from shoulder surgery has been an uneven one, as he’s allowed a 6.00 ERA and 4.81 FIP across nine appearances thanks in part to an elevated 13.2% walk rate. He’ll head to Triple-A in hopes of sorting things out and returning to the big league bullpen later this year. As for Brogdon, the righty has been out since mid-April after being placed on the injured list due to plantar fasciitis shortly after being acquired from the Phillies and has no clear timetable for return.
Amir Garrett Elects Free Agency
TODAY: The Angels have announced that Garrett has elected free agency. He’ll return to the open market in search of a new contract elsewhere.
May 15: The Angels designated veteran reliever Amir Garrett for assignment before tonight’s game with the Cardinals. Righty Davis Daniel has been recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake to take the vacated active roster spot. The move drops their 40-man roster count to 39.
Garrett pitched in six games for the Halos after they selected his contract in late April. The hard-throwing southpaw tallied 5 1/3 innings. He punched out 11 behind a huge 14.4% swinging strike rate but also walked five of the 24 hitters he faced. Garrett surrendered three runs on four hits, including a homer.
That’s par for the course for the 32-year-old. Garrett has posted higher than average strikeout and walk rates in every season since the Reds moved him to the bullpen in 2018. He was a setup arm for a couple seasons in Cincinnati before falling on harder times since 2021. Garrett combined for a 5.52 ERA over 123 appearances between 2021-22. While he had a solid 3.33 mark in 24 1/3 frames for the Royals last year, Kansas City released him around the All-Star Break because of his scattershot command.
Garrett struggled with Cleveland’s Triple-A team late last season and had a nightmarish Spring Training with the Giants. He had a good month for Salt Lake before being called up, working 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball with 10 strikeouts and four walks. Garrett started with three scoreless appearances for the Halos before surrendering runs in two of his last three outings. That includes last night’s loss to St. Louis, as he coughed up a two-run homer to Alec Burleson to break a 5-5 tie in the seventh inning.
The Angels will likely place Garrett on outright or release waivers within the next few days. He’d have the right to test free agency if he goes unclaimed.
AL East Notes: Mata, Mayo, Gausman
The Red Sox are approaching a crossroads with regards to right-hander Bryan Mata. As noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Mata has begun a rehab assignment as he works his way back from a hamstring strain that he suffered back in February. The 25-year-old was once one of the club’s top pitching prospects but has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness over the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 6.39 ERA in 31 innings of work across all levels of he minors since the start of the 2023 campaign.
While the rehab assignment for a struggling pitcher who has yet to make his big league debut wouldn’t typically be especially notable, Mata’s rehab assignment is particularly worth noting because the righty is out of options. Given that, the Red Sox will have to make a decision regarding his future in the organization once his rehab clock runs out on June 12. If the club isn’t willing to offer Mata a spot on the active roster, they’ll need to designate him for assignment and risk losing him on waivers to get the chance to outright the young righty to the minor leagues. MassLive’s Sean McAdam reported back in February that the Red Sox expect Mata to be claimed if he’s exposed to waivers, though it’s possible that could change depending on how he looks throughout his rehab assignment.
Losing Mata on waivers would be a frustrating outcome for the Red Sox given the tantalizing talent he flashed prior to injuries sidetracking his career. In his most recent healthy season, the right-hander pitched to a strong 2.49 ERA in 83 innings while advancing through four levels of the minor leagues, including a 1.85 ERA in 10 appearances at the Double-A level and a 3.47 ERA in five starts at Triple-A. That season, Mata struck out a whopping 30.3% of batters faced, albeit with an elevated 13.3% walk rate. If the righty can get anything close to those huge strikeout numbers during his rehab assignment, it could certainly make sense for the club to offer him a role in the bullpen given the number of optionable relief arms they’re currently utilizing.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles fans received some tough news from down on the farm on Friday, when the club announced that top third base prospect Coby Mayo suffered a fractured rib and has been placed on the minor league injured list. The Orioles indicated that Mayo will be out for “several weeks” due to the injury. It’s a frustrating setback for the 22-year-old, who is a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport and has impressed with a .291/.359/.605 slash line in 42 games at the Triple-A level this year. It was certainly plausible that the club could turn to Mayo as a starting option at some point in the near future given his fantastic play and the struggles of fellow top prospect Jackson Holliday, though this injury surely represents a setback for Mayo’s timeline to be called up to the majors. Jorge Mateo is currently rounding out the club’s starting infield mix in the majors alongside youngsters Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson.
- Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman has been off to a rough start this season, with a 4.89 ERA through nine starts despite a decent 3.50 FIP. Gausman’s struggles this season are particularly surprising given his utter dominance in recent years; from 2021 to ’23, the right-hander pitched to a 3.10 ERA (132 ERA+) with an even better 2.79 FIP. Gausman spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) yesterday about his frustrating results this season and described the campaign as an “uphill battle” to this point before suggesting that he “probably should have gone on the IL” at the start of the season. The righty battled shoulder soreness throughout Spring Training but nonetheless opened the season in the club’s rotation amid injuries sidelining much of the club’s starting pitching depth, including Alek Manoah and Yariel Rodriguez.
Mets Offered Pete Alonso Seven-Year, $158MM Extension Last Summer
After the Mets’ record-setting spending failed to bring them even a winning record heading into late July of last season, the team instead generated headlines by selling instead of buying, moving Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and several others in a variety of deals prior to the trade deadline. Since the Mets were reportedly open to considering all options on shorter-term talent, the club even had some discussions about moving Pete Alonso, who is a free agent this coming offseason. The Brewers and Cubs were among the teams that at least checked in on Alonso’s status, but obviously no deal was struck, and the Polar Bear remains in a Mets uniform to this very day.
The trade explorations came after, however, the Mets made an attempt to lock Alonso up for the remainder of the decade. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets offered Alonso a seven-year, $158MM extension last June, which would’ve kept him in Queens through his age 29-35 seasons. According to Sherman, “the sides never got close to a deal,” which is why the Mets then shifted to at least testing the waters to see what Alonso might net on the trade market.
The length and amount of the Mets’ offer exactly matches the final seven years of Matt Olson’s extension with the Braves, signed back in March 2022. Olson was two years away from free agency at the time of that long-term deal, and the final dollar figure was an eight-year pact worth $168MM in guaranteed money, plus the Braves hold a $20MM club option for the 2030 season. New York’s offer to Alonso apparently didn’t involve a club option, but it otherwise mirrored Olson’s deal minus the $15MM Olson earned in 2022 (the first year of the extension). Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM contract with the Dodgers was another comp, as the Mets’ offer gave Alonso more actual money than Freeman due to the deferrals involved in the L.A. first baseman’s contract.
Olson and Freeman were obvious benchmarks for Alonso as fellow star first basemen, and reports from last November suggested that Alonso wants a “much bigger” contract than either of those two deals. In the least surprising news possible, Alonso’s agent Scott Boras feels the same way, as Boras told Sherman that Alonso’s market stands apart from other recent major first baseman contracts due to Alonso’s age (he’ll be 30 on Opening Day 2025) and because the dynamics of extensions and free agent deals differ.
“The market for consistent 40-homer, durable, infield-capable, true middle-of-the-lineup sluggers is the question,” Boras said. “Note there are none available in free agency and none coming [in the next few years]. Plus, he’s New York proven, which is an unanswered question for many others — not Pete. It’s elite-level durability and production at a prime age, which is simply something most MLB teams do not possess. They will covet the opportunity to have free-agent access to such talent.”
It is worth noting that Alonso was a client of Apex Sports when he and the Mets were negotiating that extension, and Alonso then changed representation to the Boras Corporation after the season. With a few notable exceptions over the years, Boras clients generally end up heading to the open market rather than signing a contract extension, so it would count as a big surprise if Alonso and the Mets agreed to a new deal this close to Alonso’s arrival on the open market.
Alonso burst onto the scene with a 53-homer season in 2019, earning both NL Rookie of the Year honors and the first of three career All-Star berths (and the first of two Home Run Derby crowns during All-Star festivities). Naturally this made Alonso an instant star in New York, and he has kept up the power by hitting 202 homers and slashing .249/.340/.524 over his career. Those 202 homers is the most of any player since the start of the 2019 campaign.
This season has largely been more of the same, as Alonso has hit .226/.307/.458 with 10 homers in his first 189 plate appearances of 2024. However, Alonso is now in his second consecutive season with a below-average hard-hit ball rate, even if his barrel rate remains outstanding. Overall, Alonso is still mashing the ball when he makes premium contact, but is having trouble with anything less than a barrel, giving how his batting averages have declined — a .261 average in his first four seasons but only .219 since. Beyond these numbers, teams could also have the usual concerns attached to giving any first-base only player a big guaranteed deal into his 30’s, and beyond the bat, Alonso’s defense is considered average at best.
Leaving $158MM on the table could loom large for Alonso should he hit an extended slump that drags down his overall production, or if he gets injured. (Though Alonso has been very durable over his career, with only two minimal trips to the injured list.) There is also the possibility that this winter’s free agent market could somewhat resemble the staid proceedings of this past offseason, when several top free agents — including several Boras clients — had to settle for smaller deals than expected. If any of Alonso’s red flags become more glaring over the course of the 2024 campaign, teams might first attempt to see if they can wait out the market to see if Alonso could be had for the kind of short-term, opt-out heavy contracts signed by the “Boras Four” this past winter.
On the other hand, a standard Alonso type of season should provide a very nice platform, and the Polar Bear ranked fourth in MLB’s most recent Power Rankings of the 2024-25 free agent class. The first baseman’s chances of scoring a deal closer to $200MM than $158MM are also helped by the fact that Mets owner Steve Cohen has expressed his hope that Alonso will remain with the team over the long term, and Cohen hasn’t been shy about spending big to obtain his preferred targets. President of baseball operations David Stearns will obviously have a way in whatever direction the Mets take with pursuing Alonso, but if Cohen is willing to outbid the market for a particular fan favorite, Alonso might have a particular edge that other free agents don’t, depending on how aggressive the Mets will be on players beyond Alonso.
