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Fantasy Baseball: The (Bad) Changes in Discipline That Matter

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Hello friends.

With May halfway behind us and over a quarter of the games in the books, we finally have a decent enough chunk of data to start shaking out some of the wheat from the chaff, with sample sizes officially getting large enough that we can start drawing some conclusions about performance without having some "well-actually guy" on Twitter immediately start haranguing us about "too much noise, not enough signal, don't pay attention to anything...bah-hhhhhhh." We'll start our 2024 Statsapalooza on plate discipline, as many of the related numbers are ones that begin to stabilize quickly. But first, a quick word on that dirty word, stabilize.

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White Sox Move Michael Soroka To Bullpen

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White Sox manager Pedro Grifol told members of the club’s beat today that right-handers Michael Soroka and Brad Keller will be swapping places, with Soroka moving to the bullpen and Keller taking over his rotation spot. Soroka will stay stretched out and work multiple innings. James Fegan of Sox Machine was among those to pass along the information on X.

Soroka, 26, was one of five players that the Sox acquired from Atlanta in the November trade that sent Aaron Bummer the other way. Chicago gave Soroka a rotation spot but the results have been quite poor so far. Through nine starts and 43 2/3 innings, he has a 6.39 earned run average, which is the worst mark among qualified pitchers in the majors this year.

That performance is backed up by uninspiring peripherals. His 46.9% ground ball is good but he has equal strikeout and walk totals of 24. That means he has a 12.4% rate of both punchouts and free passes, both of which are well worse than league average.

It was understandable why the Sox were willing to give Soroka a shot. They started gutting their rotation at last year’s deadline by trading away Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. They didn’t flip Dylan Cease until March but it was clear that he was going to be out the door at some point as well. In March, it was reported that Michael Kopech was moving to the bullpen, though private discussions about that decision must have taken place prior to that.

There were plenty of holes to fill in the rotation and Soroka had been a dominant starter in the past. With Atlanta in 2019, he made 29 starts with a 2.68 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 51.2% ground ball rate. But he then tore his achilles tendon twice in nine months and hasn’t seemed like the same pitcher since. He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2021 or 2022 and then had a 6.40 ERA with Atlanta last year.

The Sox were undoubtedly hoping for a bounceback with a bit more remove from his injury absence. Soroka is an impending free agent, so any kind of step forward could have turned him into an interesting trade candidate this summer. But as mentioned, it hasn’t played out that way so far.

His continued struggles will get him pushed to the bullpen, though there’s a path to returning to the rotation, like Chris Flexen.. “He’s got some adjustments to make that we feel can really help him,” Grifol said, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “We did the same thing with Flexen. He pitched out of the bullpen, he threw a couple times, threw the ball great. Now he’s in the rotation.”

Flexen allowed 13 earned runs over his first three starts this year but then got bumped to the ’pen. He then threw four scoreless innings in his first relief outing and allowed just one run over 2 1/3. Since then, he has made three starts with just three earned run allowed in 16 innings.

Soroka could follow a similar path by improving his results, though another opportunity could also arise due to factors outside of his control. Pitchers injuries are common and the Sox could need Soroka in the rotation again if one is suffered by one of their starters.

It’s also possible that midseason trades will open spots in the months to come. Keller, Flexen and Clevinger are impending free agents and should be available. Erick Fedde is a possibility to go as well, given that he is on a two-year deal and putting up good numbers. Garrett Crochet is controllable through 2026, which makes him less obvious as a trade possibility, but it’s not impossible to imagine the Sox selling high on a guy who has missed a lot of time. Even if Crochet isn’t traded, he could hit a workload limit at some point since he’s thrown so little in the past.

For now, Clevinger, Fedde, Crochet and Flexen will be joined by Keller. He’s made four appearances for the Sox this year, including one start, with a 2.84 ERA. His 16.4% strikeout rate in that small sample isn’t very strong but he’s getting grounders at a 56.1% rate.

He’s had some previous success with that kind of shape. With the Royals from 2018 to 2020, he tossed 360 1/3 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate and 52.1% ground ball rate. But over the next three years, his ERA was at 5.14. His strikeout and ground ball rates held fairly steady over those spans, but his walk rate jump from 9.1% in the first one to 11.5% in the second.

He underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome late last year but seems to be back to his old self so far, at least in terms of making hitters pound the ball into the ground. The Sox will roll with him for a while Soroka tries to get his house in order and retake a rotation spot down the line.

Jasson Dominguez Begins Rehab Assignment

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Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez began a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday, per a team announcement. That effectively presses the start button on a 20-day rehab window before he must either be optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre or reinstated to the MLB roster. He’s starting out in Class-A Tampa, though he’ll very likely move up the ladder over the next couple weeks.

Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, so it’s fairly natural that Yankees skipper Aaron Boone indicated over the weekend that the 21-year-old will be limited to DH work in the early stages of rehab. This will be the first game action for Dominguez since early September, when he burst onto the big league scene with a promising .258/.303/.677 batting line in 33 plate appearances. Dominguez homered off notable big leaguers like Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier, ultimately popping four round-trippers in his brief debut before being diagnosed with a ligament tear in his elbow.

Prior to that debut, Dominguez had split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, recording 507 plate appearances at the former level and 37 at the latter. He batted a combined .265/.377/.425 despite being just 20 years old. He was about four years younger than his average opponent in Double-A and more than six years younger than the average Triple-A player.

Had Dominguez been healthy, the Yankees’ offseason could well have looked different. They’d still quite likely have made an aggressive push to land Juan Soto from the Padres, but it’s fair to wonder whether Alex Verdugo would’ve still been a prominent trade target with both Dominguez and Aaron Judge projected to be healthy. It seems likely that would not have been the case.

Now, with Verdugo, Soto and Judge all hitting well and Giancarlo Stanton still providing thump from the DH spot (despite a .283 OBP), it’s not as clear how Dominguez might fit onto the roster. He’d certainly be expected to outproduce the surprisingly anemic .069/.270/.172 line that Trent Grisham has mustered thus far, but that’s come in a sample of only 38 plate appearances. There’s likely some merit to the idea that a longtime starter like Grisham has struggled mightily with the move to such a limited role, but the minimal playing time he’s received is the primary reason why Dominguez likely wouldn’t be considered for such a role.

Even if the Yankees felt Dominguez could outperform that pace (which they surely do), putting a touted 21-year-old in a position to get seven or eight plate appearances per week would be a poor move for his development. Whenever Dominguez is deemed healthy enough to be reinstated from the injured list, the Yankees presumably want him to be ticketed for regular at-bats. The current construction of the big league roster doesn’t look ideal for that setup, though all it would take would be one injury to Verdugo, Judge, Soto or Stanton to open up some more substantial playing time.

Of the current outfielders, only Verdugo seems even remotely plausible as a trade candidate, but he’s produced a respectable .243/.329/.397 batting line (111 wRC+) while drawing more walks (11.4%) than strikeouts (10.8%). There’d be ample risk (to put it mildly) in moving a steady veteran enjoying that type of performance to free up playing time for a 21-year-old with eight games of big league experience, regardless of his prospect status. There’s been some speculation about a potential Verdugo trade among fans and pundits alike, but such a scenario seems decidedly unlikely.

Barring an injury in the big league outfield, an eventual minor league assignment for Dominguez feels almost inevitable. He’s still only played in 17 total games above the Double-A level. But with Verdugo and Soto both set to become free agents at season’s end and Grisham playing his way into a non-tender candidate, there’s still a clear path to a prominent role for Dominguez in the long-term — it just might not happen this season.

DJ LeMahieu will follow Dominguez in beginning a minor league rehab stint later this week, tweets Greg Joyce of the New York Post. It’s the second time he’ll start a rehab assignment as he returns from a season-opening injured list stay. LeMahieu joined Double-A Somerset on April 23 but was removed in the first inning after experiencing renewed soreness in his right foot. The veteran infielder was diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture in his foot at the end of Spring Training.

Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti have split the third base work in LeMahieu’s absence. Cabrera started the season well before a recent slump dropped his batting line to .252/.295/.390 in 132 plate appearances. The speedster Berti is hitting .263 without an extra-base hit and only two walks in 41 trips.

Gleyber Torres’ Early-Season Power Drought

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The 2024 season is a pivotal one for Gleyber Torres. The longtime Yankee second baseman will almost certainly head to free agency in November. Torres has publicly angled for an extension on multiple occasions in recent years, but there hasn’t been any indication the team wanted to strike early to keep him beyond this season.

Torres projects as one of the more interesting mid-level hitters in next winter’s class. He isn’t doing himself any favors with his early-season performance, though. Torres is out to a .208/.289/.273 start through 174 plate appearances. He didn’t hit his first home run of the season until May 2 and hasn’t collected multiple hits in a game since April 29. His overall production has hovered around replacement level.

It’s a surprisingly poor start for a player who has emerged as one of New York’s more consistent offensive contributors. Torres was a decidedly above-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, in four of his first six MLB seasons. Last year was among the best of his career. He connected on 25 homers with a .273/.347/.453 slash over a personal-high 672 trips to the plate.

Torres didn’t have the gaudy slugging numbers he posted back in 2019, when he popped a career-best 38 longballs in the so-called “juiced ball” season. Yet he cut his strikeout rate to a personal-low 14.6% mark and posted the highest on-base percentage in any full season of his career. There’s an argument the 2023 season was Torres’ best after accounting for the significantly depressed offensive environment compared to ’19.

While there are a few months to turn things around, he’s amidst a rough opening to his walk year. Torres’ triple slash stats are all easily at personal lows. His rate of hard contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater) has dropped 10 percentage points relative to last season. After squaring up a solid 40.3% of batted balls a year ago, he’s down to 30.4% thus far. That ranks 228th among 264 qualified hitters, per Statcast.

Torres is not only making decidedly less impactful contact, he’s making less contact of any kind. His strikeout rate has jumped to 23.6%, which would be the highest since his rookie season. He’s swinging through more pitches both within and outside the strike zone. It’s not disastrous — Torres’ strikeout and walk marks are right around league average — but it’s a major step back from where he was last season.

This isn’t quite the worst stretch of Torres’ career. He had a slightly worse month and a half coming out of the All-Star Break back in 2022. Torres rebounded with a power explosion that September that presaged his strong ’23 campaign. It’s certainly not out of the question that he puts this recent slump behind him.

League-wide power numbers tend to improve in the summer as the weather warms. That has typically been the case for Torres, who has a career .369 slugging percentage in March and April and has been north of .400 in every other month. It’s not uncommon for him to take some time to find his power, although that doesn’t typically come with the kind of swing-and-miss he has shown this year.

It’s imperative he put things together fairly quickly if he’s going to land the kind of contract his camp presumably envisioned coming into the season. Torres’ profile is driven by his offensive ability. While there’s value in being able to play up the middle, he’s a fringy defender at second base. It’s not likely that teams would consider moving him back to shortstop, where he had well below-average grades and hasn’t played regularly since 2021.

Torres was already looking to buck an unfavorable market trend towards second basemen. As shown on the MLBTR Contract Tracker, there are only a handful of recent free agent deals for second basemen that exceeded $50MM. Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175MM pact stands as an anomaly that Torres was never going to match — and Semien had a plausible argument as a potential shortstop before the Rangers signed Corey Seager a few days later. Mike Moustakas (four years, $64MM) and DJ LeMahieu (six years, $90MM) are more realistic comparison points, though those players could also play third base.

Teams have generally been more willing to invest in second basemen via extensions (e.g. Jose Altuve, Andrés Giménez, Ketel Marte, Jake Cronenworth, Jeff McNeil) than on the open market. That doesn’t seem likely to happen with the Yankees, who could be content to turn the position to Oswald Peraza after this season.

Torres’ biggest selling point once he gets to the open market is his youth. He’ll play all of next season at 28. It’s likely his camp would try to push for a deal in the range Andrew Benintendi received at the same age (five years, $75MM). That contract has aged very poorly for the White Sox, but he’d been a similar caliber of hitter as Torres leading up to his signing. Benintendi was a Gold Glove winner who plays a less important position.

However, the market for mid-tier hitters last offseason wasn’t as robust as it had been in the previous winter (when Benintendi signed). Jeimer Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. each landed three-year guarantees in the $14-15MM annual range. As with Torres, they’d generally been good but not elite hitters who weren’t offering immense defensive value. Neither Candelario nor Gurriel was eligible for a qualifying offer. If Torres turns things around, he could receive one from the Yankees.

Torres will need to start hitting soon for that to be a factor. He has already played his way out of the leadoff spot to the bottom half of the order. It’s too early for Aaron Boone to consider pulling him from the lineup entirely, but the Yankees should be locked in a tight race with the Orioles throughout the summer. They can’t afford to live with no production from second base all season, and Peraza is on a rehab stint from a Spring Training shoulder strain. How Torres performs over the next two months will be a key factor in both New York’s chance of winning a tough division and his appeal to teams when he hits the market.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Athletics Promote Brady Basso For MLB Debut

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The Athletics announced a few roster moves today, with left-hander Easton Lucas and outfielder Lawrence Butler optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas. To fill those roster spots, infielder Zack Gelof was reinstated from the 10-day injured list while lefty Brady Basso was recalled from Vegas. Basso will be making his MLB debut as soon as he gets into a game.

The Oakland pitching staff has been pretty beat-up lately, with Paul Blackburn and Joe Boyle each landing on the injured list in the past week-plus. Alex Wood is also battling a shoulder issue and may require an IL stint of his own.

Lucas was added to the club’s roster on May 8, less than a week ago, to provide a fresh arm to the staff. He was optioned three days later when the club promoted Joey Estes. But when Blackburn landed on the IL, Lucas was quickly recalled and proceeded to throw 39 pitches in relief last night. The lefty may have been unavailable for a day or two and the long relief options are limited, as Mitch Spence also threw last night and Kyle Muller tossed four innings in relief of Wood on Sunday.

Amid all of that, the club has decided to call up Basso for the first time. A 16th-round selection of the 2019 draft, he missed 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery but was back on the mound in 2023. He split his time between High-A and Double-A, tossing 63 1/3 innings with a 2.42 earned run average. He struck out 26.3% of batters faced while walking 6.2%.

The A’s added him to their 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He was sent back to Double-A and made six starts with a 2.84 ERA. He was recently promoted to Triple-A, with his first start at that level going poorly, allowing nine earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. That one rough outing aside, he’s been in good form this year and will now gets his first call to the majors.

Pirates Notes: Rotation, Contreras

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Paul Skenes’ promotion to the Pirates’ rotation brought came with plenty of fanfare, but beyond the simple arrival of perhaps the sport’s top pitching prospect, there are also broader implications for his addition to the roster. General manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton said this week that the Bucs will move to a six-man rotation now that Skenes is in the big leagues (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). With three young arms — Skenes, Jared Jones, Quinn Priester — helping to comprise the team’s starting staff, the goal of the six-man group will be to manage that trio’s workload and afford some extra rest.

“Big picture, we’re tracking volume and work volume for every pitcher on the team, no matter who they are,” Cherington told the Pirates beat over the weekend. He went on to add that while he understands Skenes’ workload management will get more attention because of his status as a recent No. 1 overall pick and top-10 prospect in the sport, the Pirates “look at it for every pitcher and it’s a part of the decision-making in terms of again, trying to win a game and also what happens after the game and getting them ready for the next start.”

Skenes joins a staff also including Jones, Priester, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Bailey Falter. Veteran lefty Marco Gonzales, currently out with a forearm strain, could factor in once healthy as well — though there’s no current timetable for his return. He’s still in the midst of a weekslong shutdown, though surgery was not a consideration as of late April.

Just how long the Buccos will stick to a six-person staff isn’t presently known. Health will be a prominent factor, as an injury anywhere in the current sextet could simply prompt a move to a more traditional five-man arrangement. The schedule also plays a role. Shelton pointed to a pair of days off in four-day span late this month that could throw a wrench into the six-man plan, noting that the team will “re-evaluate” at that point.

That certainly doesn’t sound like the six-man pivot will be permanent, but it’s of some note that the Pirates are comfortable and perhaps even prefer to use such an alignment when navigating lengthy stretches with little to no time off. Pirates fans will want to check out Gorman’s piece for more extensive quotes from both Cherington and Shelton, as well as some of the pitchers who are in the group. Perez, for instance, explained his rationale for preferring a more conventional five-man setup, while Falter noted that he “loves” the extra day of rest and provided his own explanation.

The other domino effect of Skenes’ big league arrival was the likely departure of a pitcher who once represented the same type of “future building-block” hope that Skenes does now. Certainly, Roansy Contreras was never regarded as well as Skenes is at the moment, but he was the headliner of the trade that sent righty Jameson Taillon to the Yankees.

Contreras was considered one of the game’s 100 best prospects at the time and held his own quite nicely through his first season-plus. In 2021-22, he gave the Bucs 98 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with slightly worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates — all before celebrating his 23rd birthday. The makings of a solid mid-rotation arm looked to be there.

However, Contreras has fallen into a swift decline, losing velocity and watching his strikeout rate drop despite a move to short relief. He’s been tagged for a 6.17 ERA since Opening Day 2023, fanning just under 19% of opponents against a rough 10.6% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options. The Pirates bit the bullet and designated him for assignment to open a 40-man spot for Skenes.

Cherington discussed the difficult decision to do so in an interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Cherington said following the DFA that the Pirates still believe Contreras can be “a good big leaguer.” The Pirates gave Contreras as much time as they felt they could, however, and Cherington noted that the “alternative moves we could have made to open up that spot were not going to be best for the team” in the short-term.

That’s a notable departure from the type of rebuilding mindset that has been prominent throughout much of Cherington’s tenure. He was hired following the dismissal of longtime GM Neal Huntington as the Pirates looked to a new voice to rebuild the organization from the ground up.

The Bucs still aren’t a division powerhouse by any means, but they’re five and a half games out in the Central and have the makings of an interesting rotation with Skenes, Jones, Keller and Priester all having risen through the system. Bats like Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes offer some optimism. Ownership may not have given the green light to spend much in the past couple offseasons — Reynolds’ extension notwithstanding — but it seems clear the Pirates are focusing on the here-and-now far more than in the past. It’s easy to argue that an earlier call to the big leagues for Skenes would’ve aligned more with that mentality, but on the same token it’s also fair to point out that the Bucs have typically waited until a player would be past Super Two status before calling up their top prospects. That definitely is not the case with Skenes.

Mackey suggests that another club is likely to trade for Contreras or at least claim him off waivers. I’m inclined to agree. A change of scenery wouldn’t surprise many and seems the likeliest outcome. That, however, also leaves the Bucs with little to show for their trade of Taillon. Mackey runs through several trades that have panned out that way, pointing out that while trades of Joe Musgrove and Jose Quintana have worked out reasonably well (I’d add Adam Frazier, who netted Jack Suwinski), Pittsburgh has come up empty on several notable swaps (Taillon, Starling Marte, Clay Holmes, Josh Bell).

For a front office with perennial payroll restrictions from ownership, converting on trades of big leaguers is exponentially more important. The Pirates surely hope that they won’t be in a position to be trading players away this summer, but if they are, they’ll need to improve over their recent track record.

Richard Bleier Opts Out Of Minors Deal With Nationals

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Left-hander Richard Bleier has opted out of his minor league deal with the Nationals, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. He’ll head to the open market and will be free to pursue opportunities with all 30 clubs.

Bleier, 37, signed a minor league deal with the Nationals in February. He joined them in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee and posted 1.69 earned run average over 10 2/3 innings. He didn’t get a roster spot out of camp and reported to Triple-A Rochester.

He threw 16 2/3 innings for that club with a 4.32 ERA. He only struck out 14.7% of batters faced but Bleier has always been a low-strikeout guy who succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding free passes. He walked just 2.9% of batters faced for the Red Wings and got grounders on 51.8% of balls in play.

Those numbers are all roughly in line with his career work in the majors as a journeyman grounder specialist. He has 330 1/3 innings of big league experience with the Yankees, Orioles, Marlins and Red Sox. Over that time, he has a 3.27 ERA, 13.6% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 60.9% ground ball rate.

The Nationals have selected the contracts of other veterans to their bullpen this year, such as Derek Law, Jacob Barnes and Matt Barnes. It seems that Bleier didn’t expect to be next in line, so he will look for opportunities elsewhere. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand and many clubs around the league are dealing with mounting injuries, which could open opportunities for Bleier elsewhere.

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Severino, Blue Jays, James Wood

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Welcome to another edition of my subscriber mailbag!  If you're wondering where this paywall thing came from, please read about that here.  Today's mailbag gets into Luis Severino's solid start, the future of the Blue Jays, the trajectory of Nationals prospect James Wood, and assessing free agent mega-contracts.

Dmitry asks:

I noticed Luis Severino is doing much better this year. GB rates ticked up, along with his barrels % and overall FB runs value. What's different this year? Did the Mets unlock something Matt Blake couldn't? Better health? Just needed a change of scenery?

Severino has reinvented himself as a groundball pitcher.  His 56% groundball rate this year ranks sixth among all qualified starters.  In a sense it's good that he's done so, because as with last year's disaster season, his strikeout and walk rates have remained unimpressive.  I usually start by looking at a pitcher's K-BB%, and Severino's 11.0% mark is pretty bad and basically the same as it was when he posted a 6.65 ERA last year.

Most of Severino's success came in 2017-18, when he put up 11 WAR across 384 2/3 innings for the Yankees.  He missed almost all of 2019 due to a shoulder/lat injury, and then had Tommy John surgery in February 2020.  His TJ recovery included a setback along the way due to a shoulder injury. Severino's layoff between MLB games was just shy of two years.

Severino's 2022 season gave hope that he could return to his pre-Tommy John form.  Most of his velocity returned, and even though he missed more than two months due to another lat strain, his strikeout and walk rates were reminiscent of the Severino of old over a 102 inning span.  It was enough to convince the Yankees to pick up his $15MM club option for 2023.  Severino's 2023 season was so bad that he remarked last summer,"Right now, I feel like I am the worst pitcher in the game, no doubt about it."

As you might expect, Severino tinkered with his repertoire heading into 2024.  According to SNY's Andy Martino, Severino went to Driveline.  Martino wrote, "There, he split his hard slider into a cutter and a sweeper. Neither was as powerful as his old slider, but the two offerings combined to show hitters different speeds and different looks."  Martino added, "Severino has added ride to his velocity, creating a more powerful fastball. Played off his new cutter/sweeper mix, which features variances in speed, and a changeup and sinker that helps him get ground balls, and Severino looks like a more complete pitcher."  Martino provided a third reason as well, suggesting that Severino tipped his pitches often as a Yankee and has cleaned that up with the Mets.

Indeed, Severino has started using a sinker often.  He's using it 16.7% of the time so far this year, according to Brooks Baseball.  His career high for sinkers was 2.6% last year.  He explained to Tim Britton of The Athletic, "Just to have that pitch in my pocket that can help me get a groundball here, get a double play, get out of an inning with one pitch instead of striking out two guys. I was just thinking about how I can be more productive and save more pitches."  An open-mindedness toward sinkers, which have gone out of style in baseball, is a conscious choice for the Mets, which pitching coach Jeremy Hefner explains in Britton's article.

Severino has a 3.00 ERA as of this writing, and if he stays healthy and lands under 4.00 for the season, his one-year deal will have been a big success for Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns.  There's probably too much emphasis on that 3.00 ERA through these first 45 innings, though.  I think a pretty big correction is coming, because a portion of Severino's success comes from a .250 BABIP and 8.3% home run per flyball rate.  He's a bit less interesting with a league average strikeout rate and subpar walk rate, even as one of the league's best groundballers.  Severino's SIERA sits at 4.11, though Statcast's expected ERA is solid at 3.59.  So he's not allowing a lot of hard contact and could be a 2-3 WAR type moving forward.  What Severino is doing this year seems a bit like what Marcus Stroman did last year, but with more velocity.

I took a look at recent starting pitcher seasons with a K-BB% of 12 or below and a groundball rate of 50% or better.  There is a survivorship bias, because if that combo isn't working for a pitcher, he'll be removed from the rotation.  But this is a weird combination, especially for a pitcher who throws 96.  Here are a few comps other than Stroman's 2023:

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Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments

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The 2023-24 offseason saw several teams go outside the box to add to their rotation mix by announcing plans to convert an established reliever into (or back into) a starting pitcher. It’s not a new concept by any means, of course, but it’s always notable when a player who’s found some success in one pitching role is shifted to the other — be it one-inning relievers stretching out to join a rotation or struggling starters shifting to the ’pen and hoping to find new life as their stuff plays up.

In some instances — e.g. Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez — the pitchers in question signed lucrative multi-year deals as part of this planned pivot. For others, this role change comes amid their original six seasons of club control and could greatly impact their earnings in arbitration and/or in free agency down the road.

Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the year, it seems like a good time to check in on how some of these role changes are playing out. Readers should note that this rundown will focus on pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Pitchers like Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (who started 10 games last year and nine in 2022) or Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell (who moved to the rotation last summer and finished out the ’23 campaign as a starter) aren’t the focus here so much as arms who were more strictly confined to short relief recently.

Since so many of these transitions are going to bring about clear workload concerns, we’ll check back in periodically throughout the season. For now, here’s how things are going through about 25% of the schedule.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Hicks’ transition from flamethrowing late-inning reliever to … well, flamethrowing starting pitcher has gone seamlessly thus far. It’s only nine starts and 48 innings, but the 28-year-old boasts a 2.44 ERA in his move to the rotation. A career-low 19.9% strikeout rate is a red flag, but Hicks’ 8.2% walk rate is lower than the league average and a career-best mark as well. His 56.2% grounder rate isn’t quite as high as the 60% mark he carried into the season but is still more than 10 percentage points above average.

As one would expect, Hicks’ blazing sinker has lost quite a bit of velocity now that he’s not throwing one max-effort inning at a time. His sinker sat at 100.2 mph last year but is clocking in at 96 mph in 2024. Even with four fewer miles per hour on his primary offering, however, Hicks has more than enough velocity to keep hitters off balance.

Hicks has also fully incorporated the splitter he tinkered with in 2023 into his arsenal this year. After throwing it just 1.6% of the time last season, he’s thrown 22.5% splitters in 2024. Opponents may as well not even bother swinging at the pitch. Hicks has finished off 42 plate appearances with a splitter, and hitters have posted a .079/.167/.105 slash in those instances. Opposing batters have chased the pitch off the plate at more than a 35% clip, and Hicks boasts a huge 42.9% whiff rate on the pitch, per Statcast.

The big question for Hicks, as it is for virtually any pitcher making this transition, is how his arm will hold up once he begins pushing it into uncharted waters. Hicks has never topped 77 2/3 innings in a big league season. That mark came way back in his 2018 rookie showing. The 105 frames Hicks tallied as a minor league starter in 2017 are the most he’s ever pitched in a full season. He’ll be approaching his MLB-high after he makes another four starts or so and will be on the cusp of a new career-high about 10 to 11 starts from now — when there’s still roughly half a season left to play. Hicks wasn’t even especially durable as a reliever, only surpassing 35 appearances in two of his five prior big league seasons. The early returns are outstanding, but the real test will probably come in late June and into July.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Unlike Hicks, Lopez is no stranger to starting games at the MLB level. He started 73 games for the White Sox from 2018-20 after coming over from the Nationals alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the Adam Eaton trade. The first of those three seasons went well, but Lopez stumbled in 2019-20 and began to transition to the bullpen in 2021.

The shift to a relief role seemed to suit the right-hander well. His already impressive velocity played up even further. Lopez averaged better than 95 mph as a starter in ’18-’20 but saw that number jump to 97.1 mph in 2022 and a massive 98.4 mph in 2023. Over those two seasons, he pitched to a sharp 3.02 earned run average. His rate stats were somewhat uneven, as he showed pristine command (4.3% walk rate) but an only slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate in ’22 before jumping to a huge 29.9% strikeout rate in ’23 … but pairing it with a bloated 12.2% walk rate. Taken together, however, Lopez gave the Sox 131 1/3 innings with that 3.02 ERA, 31 holds, six saves, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.

When he signed with the Braves for three years and $30MM, that generally fell in line with expectations for what he’d command as a late-inning reliever. However, it quickly became clear that the Braves were going to stretch Lopez back out. There was plenty of skepticism — myself very much included, admittedly — but the experiment has gone better than anyone could’ve imagined.

Thus far, Lopez has not only been the Braves’ best starter but one of the most effective starters in the league. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball. His velocity has dipped back down to his 2018-20 levels, sitting 95.6 mph, but that’s to be expected working out of the rotation. His 25.5% strikeout rate is better than average but not elite. His 9.9% walk rate could stand to come down. But Lopez is throwing more curveballs than ever before (10%), has largely abandoned his changeup and is keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best 41.1% rate. That’s a bit shy of the 42.8% league average but noticeably higher than the 35% clip he posted during his time with the White Sox.

The uptick in grounders is one reason that Lopez is yielding a career-low 0.51 homers per nine innings. The other is a 5.4% homer-to-flyball rate that he almost certainly can’t sustain. That fluky HR/FB and an abnormally high 88.7% strand rate are part of the reason metrics like SIERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.79), which normalize HR/FB, tend to peg him for some regression. Still, even if he’s bound to see his ERA tick up by a couple runs, Lopez has looked great through his first six turns.

Time will tell just how his arm can handle a return to his 2018-19 workloads, but the early results are excellent — and the importance of his breakout is magnified by the loss of ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery. Notably, Lopez exited last night’s start with some tightness in his back, but manager Brian Snitker suggested after the game that he’s likely to make his next start.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

On the other side of the coin, the Marlins’ efforts to move Puk back into a starting role quickly went down in flames. Puk, a former No. 6 overall pick who worked as a starter in the minors, looked excellent this spring. He pitched 13 2/3 innings over four starts and two earned runs with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio. The transition could hardly have gotten out to a more promising start.

In his first four regular-season starts, Puk also pitched 13 2/3 innings. The similarities stop there. Opponents bludgeoned Puk for 14 earned runs on 19 hits and a stunning 17 walks. He fanned only 12 of his 77 opponents (15.6%).

Miami placed Puk on the injured list on April 20 due to left shoulder fatigue. He returned from the injured list just yesterday. Despite myriad injuries in their rotation, the Fish have already pulled the plug on the rotation experiment for Puk, announcing that he’ll be back in the bullpen following his stay on the injured list. It’s a role he thrived in over the past two seasons, logging a 3.51 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate while piling up 22 saves and 19 holds.

If Puk returns to form as a reliever — he was particularly impressive in ’23, striking out 32.2% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate — the ill-fated rotation gambit will be little more than a footnote in what hopefully ends up as a strong overall career as a reliever. If Puk’s struggles persist, however, there’ll be plenty of second-guessing the decision to take one of the team’s best relief arms and stretch him out despite a litany of injury troubles that had combined to limit Puk to only 147 2/3 innings in his entire career prior to this season.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Crochet has worked to a pedestrian earned run average on the season due to a bevy of home runs allowed, but the former first-rounder who’s drawn comparisons to Chris Sale since being drafted by the White Sox has turned in elite strikeout and walk numbers. The 4.63 ERA looks unimpressive, but Crochet has fanned more than a third of his opponents (34.2%) against a pristine 4.8% walk rate.

Crochet boasts an excellent 14.5% swinging-strike rate and is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater. That’s a ways from the 100.2 mph he averaged in six innings as a rookie in 2020, but Crochet has had Tommy John surgery since that time and is working in longer stints now as opposed to bullpen work in ’20. This year’s velocity actually slightly exceeds his average velocity from working purely as a reliever in 2022-23.

In terms of workload concern, Crochet is up there with Puk in terms of extreme uncertainty. He entered the season with a total of 73 big league innings since his No. 11 overall selection in 2020 and is already at 46 2/3 innings on the young 2024 campaign. So long as he keeps missing bats and limiting walks anywhere near his current levels, the run-prevention numbers will come down — FIP and SIERA peg him at 3.33 and 2.37, respectively — but it’s anyone’s guess as to how Crochet will hold up. He skipped the minor leagues entirely, so even if you add in his whole minor league body of work, that’d only tack last year’s 12 1/3 rehab innings onto his track record. Going from a total of 85 1/3 professional innings over a four-year period to a full starter’s workload is bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far Crochet looks quite intriguing as a starting pitcher.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

The Angels nearly lost Soriano back in 2020, when the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Soriano was wrapping up his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery and could’ve been stashed in a rebuilding Pittsburgh bullpen upon his reinstatement from the injured list. A setback in his recovery early in the season prompted another wave of imaging and revealed a new tear, however. Soriano underwent a second Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2021. He was eventually returned to the Angels.

Unfortunate as that back-to-back pair of surgeries was, Soriano’s injury troubles allowed the Angels to keep him in the system. They’re now reaping the benefits. The flamethrowing righty made 38 relief appearances last season and pitched to a quality 3.64 ERA with a huge 30.3% strikeout rate — albeit against a troubling 12.4% walk rate. Soriano averaged 98.6 mph on his heater last year and wound up picking up 15 holds, as the then-rookie righty increasingly worked his way into higher-leverage spots.

The Angels announced early in spring training that Soriano would be stretched out as a starter. His ramp-up continued into the regular season. His first two appearances this year came out of the bullpen but both spanned three innings. He’s since moved into the rotation and has looked quite impressive. Through his first seven starts, Soriano touts a 3.58 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and an outstanding 62.8% ground-ball rate. Even though he’s working in longer stints, he’s improved his fastball and is now sitting at 99.3 mph with it. His 12.4% walk rate still needs improvement, but the returns here are quite promising.

Soriano only pitched 65 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues last year, and he’s already at 38 2/3 frames on the 2024  season. He’s never pitched more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. We’ll see how he fares as he pushes past those thresholds, but there’s a lot to like with this rotation move — even though it’s garnered far less attention than some of the others around the game.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

The Rays obviously have a knack for finding hidden gems and converting unheralded arms into viable starting pitchers — hey there, Zack Littell — and Alexander is an example of their latest efforts to do so. The left-hander has started for the Tigers in the past and functioned in a swingman role, but the Rays picked him up in a low-cost move following a DFA in Detroit with the idea of stretching him out. Since it’s Tampa Bay, not all of Alexander’s “starts” have been, well, actual starts. He’s followed an opener on multiple occasions already, but he’s followed that one- or two-inning table-setter with at least four innings each time out.

Overall, Alexander has made eight appearances and averaged just under five frames per outing (39 2/3 total innings). He’s sitting on a pretty rough 5.45 ERA, thanks in part to a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees last time out (though he did at least complete seven frames in that start, helping to spare the Tampa Bay bullpen). Alexander’s 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of average. His 6.9% walk rate is about two points better than average. However, he’s taken his longstanding status as a fly-ball pitcher to new heights in 2024, inducing grounders at just a 30.4% clip.

Alexander’s 14.5% homer-to-flyball ratio is only a couple percentage points north of average, but because of the sheer volume of fly-balls he’s yielding, he’s still averaging more than two taters per nine frames. Opponents have posted an ugly 11.8% barrel rate against him (ugly for Alexander, that is). If he can’t cut back on the fly-balls and/or start finding a way to avoid the barrel more regularly, it’s going to be hard for Alexander to find sustained success. The Rays don’t convert on every dart-throw — much as it’s fun to joke to the contrary — and so far the Alexander experiment hasn’t paid off.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Wilson’s move to the rotation wasn’t necessarily planned, but injuries up and down the Brewers’ staff forced the issue. Five of his past six outings have been starts and he’s sporting an eye-catching 1.78 ERA in that span. The rest of the numbers in that stretch are less impressive. Wilson has a tepid 17.3% strikeout rate in that stretch but has walked an untenable 13.5% of opponents. Opponents have posted a hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) against him during that time. Were it not for a .191 BABIP and 92.2% strand rate, the ERA wouldn’t look nearly as rosy. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (5.34) are quite bearish.

Wilson is still scheduled to take the ball on Saturday in Houston, but his recent stretch of run-prevention doesn’t seem sustainable without some improvements in his K-BB profile.

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