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A’s Sign J.D. Davis

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March 18: Davis would earn $750K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $250K if he reaches 550 plate appearances, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

March 16: The Athletics have now officially announced Davis’ one-year deal for the 2024 season.

March 15: The A’s have reportedly agreed to terms with third baseman J.D. Davis on a one-year, $2.5MM free agent contract. The deal, which is pending a physical and has not yet been announced by the team, contains an additional $1MM in performance bonuses. The infielder is represented by ALIGND Sports Management.

Davis stays in the Bay Area after being released by the Giants on Monday. His time in San Francisco ended on an acrimonious note. Pushed out of the starting lineup by the signings of Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman, he was arguably a redundant fit on the San Francisco roster. The Giants also carry Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infield/DH option.

That prompted San Francisco to shop Davis on the trade market. When no deal presented itself, the Giants placed him on outright waivers. The hope was that another team would claim him and assume the $6.9MM salary which his camp had won in an arbitration hearing in February. None of the other 29 teams took that on, leading the Giants to put Davis on release waivers.

While he was no longer a great roster fit in San Francisco, the release was clearly motivated in large part by finances. Under the collective bargaining agreement, arbitration-eligible players who settle on a contract without going to a hearing are entitled to their full salary even if they’re released. Arbitration salaries determined in a hearing — whether in favor of the player or team — are not fully guaranteed until Opening Day. By releasing Davis more than 15 days before the start of the regular season, the Giants were only responsible for 30 days termination pay. That checked in a little above $1.1MM.

Davis’ deal with the A’s brings his guaranteed money for the upcoming season around $3.6MM. If he hits all of his incentives, he could get to around $4.6MM in earnings. The end of his Giants tenure will cost Davis a few million dollars, although he’ll at least have a clear path to everyday reps.

Oakland was likely to go into the year with either Abraham Toro or Darell Hernaiz logging the majority of their third base work. Toro is a career .211/.282/.354 hitter who spent most of last season in Triple-A with the Brewers. Hernaiz is a talented prospect, but he has yet to make his big league debut. Even if Hernaiz hits his way to the majors this year, he could push defensive specialist Nick Allen for playing time at shortstop. The A’s grabbed Miguel Andújar off waivers from the Pirates early in the offseason. He’s still on the roster but has played mostly in the corner outfield over the past few seasons.

Davis should be a clear upgrade over that group. The 30-year-old (31 in April) has been an above-average hitter in each of the last five seasons. Last year’s .248/.325/.413 batting line was his worst rate production since he emerged in 2019. Still, he played in a career-high 144 games and connected on 18 home runs. Davis has above-average power and draws a fair number of walks. He strikes out at a higher than average rate, yet his .268/.352/.443 slash of the last five years could earn him a spot in the middle third of Mark Kotsay’s lineup.

With between five and six years of major league service, Davis will head back to free agency next offseason. The opportunity to play on an everyday basis is surely appealing as he tries to establish himself as the #3 third base option in a free agent class that’ll include Alex Bregman and, if he opts out, Chapman. Improving his defensive grades would be a big boost to his market value. Davis has typically rated as a fringy defender. Public metrics were split on his value last season. Defensive Runs Saved had him among the least effective third basemen at 11 runs below average in 915 2/3 innings. Statcast was a lot more impressed, rating him four runs better than par.

Davis also drew interest from the Mets this week. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that he chose the A’s in part because of the guarantee that he’ll play on a regular basis. He reunites with former Giants teammates Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Scott Alexander as veteran additions to the A’s clubhouse. As with any veteran joining a rebuilding team on a one-year deal, he’d be a clear trade candidate this summer if he’s playing at his typical level.

Oakland’s player payroll now sits around $61MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That is a little above last season’s approximate $57MM Opening Day mark but still sits last in MLB by a country mile. The A’s have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move once the contract is finalized.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the A’s and Davis were in agreement. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo had previously suggested the A’s were showing interest in Davis. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported it was a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee with $1MM in performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Hitters Approaching Significant Career Milestones

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The 2024 season is just days away. It’s a time of renewed hope for at least the vast majority of teams. It also opens the opportunity for a few veteran players to continue building on what have already been very accomplished careers, some of which should happen early in the year.

Hits

Among active players, Joey Votto leads the way with 2135 career hits. Votto is on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays and might start the season in Triple-A. Freeman will be back in the middle of a loaded Dodger lineup. While he won’t reach any notable round numbers this season — he has a shot to get to 2500 by the end of the ’25 season if he stays healthy — he’ll continue his ascent up the leaderboard in the next few months. Freeman needs only 51 more hits to surpass the original Billy Hamilton and climb into the top 200 on the all-time list. If he tops 200 hits for the second straight season, he’d pull alongside Eddie Mathews into the top 150 by year’s end.

Goldschmidt is 91 hits away from reaching the 2000 club. He’d almost certainly be the 297th player to get to that threshold, depending on whether Evan Longoria decides to continue playing. Longo is only 70 knocks away from that mark but was undecided on whether he’ll give things another go at last check. Even if Longoria does return, Goldschmidt could surpass him on the career leaderboard within a couple months. The 2022 NL MVP hasn’t had a stint on the injured list in almost a decade. If that continues, he should pick up hit #2000 sometime around the All-Star Break.

Notable players approaching 1500 hits: Mookie Betts (1485), Starling Marte (1470), Justin Turner (1461), Giancarlo Stanton (1454), Nick Castellanos (1451), Salvador Pérez (1411)

Home Runs

Stanton is the only active player with more than 400 career homers. There aren’t any traditional milestones upcoming but a 30-homer showing would put him in rare territory. Cal Ripken Jr. currently sits 50th all-time with 431 longballs. Stanton isn’t a lock to get there this year, as his overall production has plummeted over the past two seasons. Still, he topped 30 in both 2021 and ’22 and hit another 24 last year despite the worst numbers of his career.

Trout is the only player with a realistic shot to join Stanton in the 400-club this year, as he sits 32 away from that mark. After Votto and Longoria, Goldschmidt is next among active players at 60 homers away. Trout only hit 18 homers a year ago thanks to a hamate fracture in his left wrist. He’s only one season removed from popping 40, though. He’ll need to stay healthy, but he could get to 400 career homers in August or September.

Goldy will need to wait until 2025 to have a chance at the 400-homer plateau, but he’s nearing a notable spot on the leaderboard. With his ninth homer this year, he’d surpass George Foster and move into the top 100 in MLB history. As is the case with the hits milestone, Longoria could complicate this. Longo is at 342 career homers, although it’s unlikely he’ll hit seven more before Goldschmidt picks up his ninth of the season.

McCutchen and Rizzo should each join the 300-homer club early in the year. McCutchen almost certainly would’ve gotten there late last season were it not for a partially torn Achilles suffered in early September. The Pirates begin the season on a seven-game road trip before welcoming the Orioles to PNC Park in their home opener.

Rizzo also suffered an injury that kept him from the 300-homer plateau last year. After a torrid start, he suffered through a dismal slump related to what the Yankees believe was post-concussion syndrome arising out of a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28. They shut him down in August. McCutchen and Rizzo should become the 12th and 13th active players (including Votto, Longoria and J.D. Martinez) to get to the 300-homer mark.

No one else is knocking on the doorstep of 300, although there could be one more late-season entrant to the group. Aaron Judge enters the year with 257 career longballs. A 43-homer showing is certainly within the range of outcomes if he stays healthy.

Notable players approaching 200 homers: Joey Gallo (198), Brandon Belt (194), Christian Yelich (193), Pete Alonso (192), Randal Grichuk (191), Justin Turner (187), Joc Pederson (186), Kris Bryant (182), Max Muncy (180), Cody Bellinger (178), Javier Báez (175), Xander Bogaerts (175)

RBI

There are nine active players who have driven in more than 1000 runs over the course of their careers: Longoria, Votto, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, McCutchen, Stanton, Carlos Santana and Martinez. The next five up all have a chance to join them, although it’d take a monster year from Harper to drive in 111. (Harper has topped that once, picking up 114 RBI for the Phillies in 2019.) Abreu, Machado and Trout should get there if they stay healthy. Rizzo could be a borderline case but drove in 70 as recently as two seasons ago.

Stolen Bases

Among active players, Elvis Andrus leads the way with 347 career steals. He’s on a minor league deal with the D-Backs, though, so Starling Marte (338) is tops among players currently on a 40-man roster. Altuve and Turner are next in line and could each get to 300 this season. Altuve should do so with relative ease, even if he doesn’t run nearly as often as he did early in his career. Turner has an uphill battle. While he has twice topped 40 steals in a season, he hasn’t gotten past 32 in any of the last three years. To his credit, he went 30-30 last year, so there’s no questioning his efficiency.

Wins Above Replacement, bWAR

WAR doesn’t lend itself to milestone tracking with the same ease as the simpler counting stats. A player’s WAR total can go backwards, for one, and there’s no specific in-game moment when they’ll pass a certain threshold. Even if it’s not the easiest statistic to follow in real time, it’s one that teams and many Hall of Fame voters take into account, so it’s worth highlighting a few players.

The aforementioned hamate injury kept Trout to a modest 3-win season a year ago. B-Ref credited him with over six wins in 2022. Replicating that production would make him the only active player to surpass the 90-WAR threshold for his career, a mark topped by only 30 position players in league history. Trout currently sits 33rd on that list. He should pass Chipper Jones and George Brett this year, with an outside chance of tracking down Wade Boggs, Jimmie Foxx and Al Kaline.

With another star-level season, Betts will surpass the 70-WAR threshold. Coincidentally, 70 position players in league history have gotten to that level. Of those players who are eligible for Hall of Fame consideration, only eight (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose, Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Rafael Palmeiro, Bobby Grich and Carlos Beltrán) aren’t enshrined in Cooperstown. There’s already no real doubt that Betts is en route to the Hall of Fame, but crossing the 70-WAR mark will further entrench him among the elite players in MLB history.

Notable players approaching 60 WAR: Freeman (55.7), Machado (54.9), Arenado (54.4)

Jose Urquidy Diagnosed With Forearm Strain, Will Open Season On Injured List

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Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy has been diagnosed with a strained muscle in his forearm and will open the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced to the Astros beat this morning (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Rome notes that Espada was asked specifically about Urquidy’s ulnar collateral ligament but replied that the only information he’s received is that there’s a forearm strain. Urquidy, who pulled himself from his most recent spring start due to elbow pain and underwent an MRI, will be shut down from throwing for the next few days.

Urquidy joins Justin Verlander (shoulder discomfort), Luis Garcia Jr. (Tommy John surgery last May) and Lance McCullers Jr. (flexor surgery last June) as Astros starters on the injured list to begin the season. Left-hander Framber Valdez has already been named the Opening Day starter, and he’ll likely be joined on the starting staff by righties Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and J.P. France.

Injuries have mounted for the Astros in spring training, and they’ll now have nearly an entire MLB rotation (and a good one, at that) on their 15-day IL to open the year. The ’Stros also announced early in camp that setup man Kendall Graveman would miss the season due to shoulder surgery — a move that prompted them to pivot and sign Josh Hader to a five-year contract in free agency.

There’s been talk of a similar late grab on the rotation side of things. As recently as Friday, the ’Stros were reported to be in “serious” pursuit of two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but there’s been some doubt cast on the team’s willingness to pay Snell a $30MM annual salary. Doing so would push Houston into the third tier of luxury penalization, resulting in just over $12MM of taxes (on top of Snell’s actual salary). It’d also cause Houston’s top pick in next year’s draft to drop by 10 places and would require the Astros to forfeit their second-highest pick (currently in the third round, as they forfeited their second-rounder to sign Hader) as well as $500K of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency.

For Urquidy, this will mark the third time in four seasons he’ll head to the injured list. In 2021, a pair of shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 107 innings. He was healthy enough to avoid the IL entirely and pitch in 29 games (28 starts) for Houston in 2022, but last year saw a return of some shoulder pain. Urquidy was placed on the injured list on May 1 and didn’t return until Aug. 6, ultimately pitching just 63 innings on the year.

When he’s healthy, there’s little doubt Urquidy is a quality big league pitcher. He was dinged for a 5.29 ERA in last year’s relatively small sample and likely wasn’t pitching at 100% prior to that IL stint, but he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every other season of his career. In 405 big league innings, Urquidy has a solid 3.98 earned run average with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate but a very strong 5.8% walk rate. As an undersized righty (6’0″) with fly-ball tendencies and an average fastball, he’s susceptible to home runs  (1.49 HR/9). But Urquidy’s plus changeup has helped him neutralize lefties throughout his career, holding them to an awful  .203/.255/.364 slash.

It’s not yet clear how long Urquidy will spend on the shelf, but pairing his absence with that of Verlander —  plus the previously known season-opening IL stints for Garcia and McCullers — has already begun to test the Astros’ rotation depth. Add in that right-hander Shawn Dubin has yet to pitch this spring due to shoulder discomfort of his own, and Houston is all the more thin in that department. Swingman Brandon Bielak would probably be the next man up in the event of a further injury, and after him the Astros don’t even have another healthy starting pitcher on the 40-man roster. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti has been mentioned as a possible option, though he’d need to be selected to the 40-man roster.

As such, even if it’s not Snell or Jordan Montgomery, it seems as though the Astros would make sense for further pitching reinforcements. General manager Dana Brown has gone back and forth on the team’s stance. When announcing that Verlander would open the year on the IL, he suggested the team wasn’t in the market for additional rotation help. Last week, after Urquidy pulled himself after 43 pitches when he’d been slated to throw around 60, Brown reversed course and said he’s “always” in the market for rotation help and even went so far as to acknowledge that so long as Snell remained on the market, the Astros would be checking in on his price tag and where things stood.

If not Snell or Montgomery, the market offers a handful of veteran names. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are both free agents, as is old friend Zack Greinke. There will also be a handful of options hitting the market late in camp, as veterans who are on non-roster deals with other teams are released or opt out of those deals upon being informed they won’t make the club. There’ll also be some arms available via the DFA market, as teams make corresponding moves to set their 40-man rosters. Some form of rotation addition seems quite plausible for Houston in the next ten days.

Braves Option Bryce Elder; Reynaldo Lopez To Open Season As Fifth Starter

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve optioned right-handers Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett. That follows last week’s option of righty AJ Smith-Shawver and closes the book on Atlanta’s fifth-starter competition. Offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez will open the season as the team’s fifth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

While it’s looked quite likely for some time now that Lopez would get the spot, it’s nonetheless a scenario that would’ve sounded outlandish after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Elder faded down then stretch in the final couple months of the ’23 campaign but was an All-Star last July. Smith-Shawver rose from High-A to the big leagues in a matter of months last season. Lopez, meanwhile, moved to the bullpen early in the 2021 season with the White Sox and has worked as a reliever for the bulk of the past three seasons.

However, even at the time the Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30MM contract, they made clear that the plan was going to be to stretch the right-hander out as a rotation option. Atlanta scouts and evaluators are clearly bullish on the right-hander’s power arsenal and feel it can indeed still hold up in a starting capacity. Lopez started 73 games for the ChiSox from 2018-20, so he’s no stranger to the role, but the vast majority of his MLB success has come since moving to short relief stints.

Thus far in camp, he’s at least looked the part of a viable rotation piece. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but through 16 2/3 frames Lopez hasn’t done much to hurt his chances. He’s posted a sharp 2.16 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate. Elder has been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walk with 13 strikeouts through just 12 innings. Ynoa, who’s still making his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, was slowed early in camp by some shoulder soreness and only made his spring debut on Saturday, tossing one inning. Were it not for the shoulder issue, perhaps he’d have been more firmly in the mix this spring, but he didn’t have the chance to build up and will open the season as a depth option in Gwinnett.

Once Smith-Shawver was optioned a week ago, the competition was largely down to Elder and Lopez. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but after a brilliant start to his 2023 season, Elder limped to a dismal 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 72 innings of the year (14 starts).

Lopez, over the past three seasons, has pitched to a 3.14 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate through 189 innings, most of which has come in a relief setting. He pushed his average fastball velocity up to a career-high 98.4 mph in that role last season, though he’ll likely see that number dip a bit over longer stints as a starter.

Lopez posted a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts for the ’18 White Sox but did so with shaky strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that prompted metrics like FIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.92) to cast a much less favorable light on his work. The secondary numbers indeed served as a portent for regression; from 2019-20, Lopez was torched for a 5.52 ERA in 210 2/3 innings, thanks largely to pedestrian K-BB numbers and a sky-high 1.88 HR/9 mark.

If Lopez is able to break out as a starter, the three-year, $30MM contract he signed could well look like a bargain. If not, he’s proven over the past few seasons that he can be an impact late-inning reliever, so he could always be shifted back into a one-inning role and deepen an already excellent Atlanta bullpen that features Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Lopez’s former White Sox teammate Aaron Bummer.

The Opener: Astros, Pham, Perez

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With the first game of the regular season just days away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Are the Astros in or out on Snell?

It’s been a whirlwind of a weekend for Astros fans, as the club was reported as being in “serious pursuit” of reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. It’s easy to see why Snell would appeal to them in particular, even beyond his pair of Cy Young Awards, as Houston’s starting pitching corps will be without not only Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia Jr. but also Justin Verlander and possibly Jose Urquidy to open the season. Southpaw Framber Valdez and right-hander Cristian Javier are the top healthy starters for the ’Stros, but both took steps back from their 2022 performance last season.

While adding Snell to the mix would be a surefire way to improve the club’s rotation mix dramatically, there’s reason for skepticism about the odds of the sides coming together. Reporting yesterday described the Astros as “long-shots” to ultimately land Snell, casting doubt on the club’s willingness to offer a deal in the $30MM range, which would push them past the third threshold of the luxury tax. Speculatively speaking, the club could pivot to a more affordable rotation arm still available on the market should they be unwilling to stomach Snell’s asking price. Both Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are still unsigned.

2. Will Pham, Padres complete deal?

While the Padres’ 2023 Cy Young award winner appears to be headed out the door, another player could be poised for a reunion in San Diego. Veteran outfielder Tommy Pham is reportedly in talks with the club on a one-year deal with a salary in the $3MM to $4MM range. The 36-year-old makes plenty of sense for the Padres, who are set to enter the Seoul Series against the Dodgers later this week with Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar as their top options in left field alongside top prospect Jackson Merrill in center and star Fernando Tatis Jr. in right.

Both Azocar and Profar were more than 20% below league average with the bat last year per wRC+. Installing Pham, who slashed an above average .256/.328/.446 in 129 games with the Mets and Diamondbacks, as the everyday left fielder would be a substantial upgrade. Even though San Diego is a clear fit for Pham’s services, they aren’t the only suitor for the veteran. The White Sox are reportedly involved in Pham’s market as well, where the veteran would presumably serve as a right-handed complement to Dominic Fletcher and Andrew Benintendi in the outfield corners.

3. Perez meeting with surgeon:

Marlins youngster Eury Perez is reportedly dealing with elbow soreness, setting the right-hander up to likely start the season on the injured list. Its a brutal blow to Miami’s rotation plans, particularly in conjunction with the shoulder issues that both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are dealing with elsewhere in the rotation mix. The number of injuries plaguing the club’s rotation seems to be spurring an all-hands-on-deck approach to the Opening Day rotation. Even more impactful for the club than the decisions on how to fill out the rotation behind Opening Day starter Jesus Luzardo will be Perez’s reported meeting with orthopedic surgeon Keith Meister, who performed right-hander Sandy Alcantara’s Tommy John surgery back in the fall.

Such a meeting isn’t necessarily an indication that Perez is slated for a similar fate, but it’s a clear sign that the Marlins are taking the bout of soreness in Perez’s elbow seriously. Perez impressed over 91 1/3 innings of work in his rookie season last year, pitching to a 3.15 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 19 starts in just his age-20 season.

Astros Reportedly “Long-Shots” To Land Blake Snell

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The Astros have been the buzz of the baseball world this weekend following reporting that indicated the club was in “serious pursuit” of the top remaining free agent, reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale earlier today indicates that the club may be a “long-shot” to ultimately land the southpaw, however. Nightengale reports that the club has “balked” at the asking price from Snell’s camp, which he adds stands at a $60MM guarantee over two years that includes an opt-out following the 2024 season. Houston, Nightengale adds, is conscious of being pushed over an additional luxury tax threshold by a Snell deal with an AAV in the $30MM range. Nightengale goes on to suggest that the Giants currently appear to be the favorites for Snell’s services, though he makes clear that San Francisco has been waiting for Snell’s price to drop even as they’ve remained engaged with the southpaw.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would be worried about stomaching a $30MM annual commitment for Snell’s services. The club is already in unprecedented territory with regards to its player payroll; Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes that Houston has never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. That figure reaches nearly $256MM for luxury tax purposes, just over $1MM shy of the second, $257MM tax threshold.

Virtually any addition to the club’s payroll at any point this season would push them past that level, but a more significant addition such as Snell would leave the club at risk of going over the third threshold, which stands at $277MM for the 2024 season. While the first two brackets of the luxury tax come with only financial considerations, the penalties get stiffer when a clubs surpasses the third threshold. Those penalties most notably include the club’s highest pick in the following year’s draft being pushed back ten places, which is further compounded by an associated cut to the club’s bonus pool for signing their draft picks that year. Given the elevated costs involved with a pursuit of Snell, it was hardly surprising when GM Dana Brown suggested that the club wasn’t interested in pursuing additional starting pitching this spring, even name-dropping Snell specifically as a player the club would “love to have” but didn’t expect to sign.

Of course, it’s hard to overstate just how impactful Snell could be for the Astros rotation even in spite of those ancillary concerns. Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are both set to open the season on the injured list and miss considerable time this season. They’ll also be joined at least for the early days of the campaign by veteran ace Justin Verlander, whose start to the season has been delayed soreness in his right shoulder. Those injuries leave the club’s rotation depth in an tough spot entering the season, and a recent injury scare regarding Jose Urquidy has only exacerbated those concerns. KRPC2’s Ari Alexander reported recently that Urquidy has been dealing with “forearm stiffness” per a source, while manager Joe Espada told reporters yesterday that the right-hander has flown back to Houston from the club’s spring complex in Florida to meet with team doctors.

Losing Urquidy could leave the club to rely on depth options such as Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco behind a front-of-the-rotation duo featuring Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, at least for the start of the season. Adding Snell to that mix would not only give the club much-needed additional pitching depth early in the season, but would also add an impactful, playoff-caliber arm to a rotation that saw each of Verlander, Valdez, and Javier take steps back in 2023 from the 2022 form that saw the group stand among the very best starting trios in baseball that year. While Snell certainly has flashed inconsistencies of his own throughout his career, posting a relatively pedestrian 3.85 ERA and 3.44 FIP from 2019 to 2022, he’s nonetheless ranged from a dependable mid-rotation arm to an elite, front-of-the-rotation flamethrower throughout his eight years in the majors and would be a surefire upgrade to an Astros club looking to make an eighth consecutive postseason appearance this fall.

On the other hand, Snell would provide all those same benefits to the Giants. San Francisco has had a busy offseason, bringing in Bob Melvin to replace Gabe Kapler in the managers’ chair while adding the likes of Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Jordan Hicks in free agency. With that being said, the club has done little to address a rotation mix that delivered the least innings among all major league clubs last year. Hicks has moved from the bullpen into the rotation since joining San Francisco, and the club could also receive a boost from trade acquisition Robbie Ray midseason upon his return from Tommy John surgery sometimes this summer. With Ray, Alex Cobb, and Tristan Beck all set to open the season on the injured list, however, it leaves the club with minimal certainty in the rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb.

Given how much the club would benefit from another front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Webb, it’s not a surprise that the Giants continue to be involved in Snell’s market. Despite comments from club chairman Greg Johnson back in February that suggested the club planned to rely on young rotation arms such as Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn entering the 2024 season, reporting has indicated that San Francisco has remained in the mix for Snell in recent weeks, though the club has signaled that it did not anticipate further major additions after signing Chapman earlier this month.

While it’s unclear how far Snell’s price would have to fall for San Francisco to pounce, the club’s books figure to have far more flexibility than those in Houston. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $177MM entering the 2024 season, likely leaving ample room for the club to fit Snell into the budget. While the club’s luxury tax payroll stands at a somewhat higher $226MM figure, even an AAV approaching Snell’s reported $30MM asking price would leave the club just a touch under the second luxury tax threshold.

West Notes: Black, Giants, Soderstrom

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Rockies manager Bud Black and owner Dick Monfort are discussing a contract extension that would keep Black in Colorado beyond the 2024 season, per a report from MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Harding notes that while Black and Monfort acknowledged that they are “talking” about a deal, no agreement has been reached at this point and it’s unclear if a deal will come together prior to Opening Day, which is now less than two weeks away.

Per Harding, Monfort indicated that the club’s focus remains on preparing for the regular season, but that he nonetheless hopes that the sides will be able to reach an agreement. There’s certainly reason for optimism that the sides will eventually work out a deal in some capacity, as the veteran manager has inked one-year extensions in each of the past two springs and reporting in previous years has indicated that the Rockies and Black have a long-standing unofficial agreement on a rolling year-to-year deal where either side can walk away after any given season.

Black, 66, spent nine years as manager of the Padres from 2007 to 2015 (including a 2010 season that saw him win the NL Manager of the Year award) before joining the Rockies prior to the 2017 season. He led the club to back-to-back postseason appearances in his first two years with the club but the club has struggled badly under his leadership over the past five seasons, never winning more than 74 games in a season and even suffering the franchise’s first ever 100-loss campaign in 2023, when the team lost 103 games en route to a last place finish in not only the NL West but the entire National League; only the Royals and A’s lost more games last year. With that being said, Monfort is well-known for being loyal to his employees and valuing continuity in the organization, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that he would be interested in continuing the club’s relationship with Black beyond the 2024 campaign.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • The Giants are set to enter the regular season with little certainty in their starting rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb. With veterans Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray starting the season on the injured list where they’ll be joined by youngsters like Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle, the club figures to lean on offseason signing Jordan Hicks and top prospect Kyle Harrison to fill out the middle of its rotation. That still leaves two spots undecided, however, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted today that manager Bob Melvin brought up right-handed rookie Mason Black as one arm the club is likely to turn to for a rotation spot this season. Black, 24, was the club’s third-round pick in the 2021 draft and posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 29 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Slusser adds that other possibilities for the final spots in the rotation and/or bullpen mix are fellow youngster Keaton Winn and non-roster veterans Daulton Jefferies and Spencer Howard. Of course, that could all change if the club’s reported run at left-hander Blake Snell were to bear fruit.
  • The Athletics announced earlier this evening that they have optioned catcher Tyler Soderstrom to Triple-A, effectively ending the 2020 first-round pick’s bid to open the 2024 season with the club. Soderstrom, 22, was a consensus top-100 prospect entering last season as a well-regarded, bat-first catcher. Things came off the rails for the youngster upon making his major league debut, however, as he hit a paltry .160/.232/.240 in 138 trips to the plate during a 45-game stint in the majors last year. Soderstrom’s first taste of big league action saw him strike out in 31.2% of his plate appearances while recording just four extra-base hits. His struggles continued this spring as he recorded just four hits against eight strikeouts in 34 trips to the plate across 14 games, prompting Oakland to send him back to the minors for additional development time. In the meantime, the club appears likely to rely on a tandem of Shea Langeliers and non-roster invitee Carlos Perez behind the plate to open the season.

Mike Clevinger Seeking One-Year Deal

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USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that right-hander Mike Clevinger is seeking a one-year contract according to Clevinger’s agent, Seth Levinson of ACES.

The news regarding Clevinger’s market sets up a contrast between the veteran right-hander and the other free agent starting pitchers still available. Top-of-the-market southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are both seeking pricey multi-year contracts, with the latest reporting on Snell indicating that the lefty is seeking an opt-out laden two- or three-year guarantee with an AAV in the $30MM range, while Montgomery was rumored to be angling for a seven-year pact earlier this month. Even righty Michael Lorenzen, the other mid-market pitcher still available, is reportedly seeking a two-year deal, with recent reports indicating that the 32-year-old has turned down one-year offers in the $5-7MM range.

While it’s not clear where Clevinger’s salary expectations are as things stand, it’s nonetheless easy to see the 33-year-old’s willingness to accept a one-year deal making the right-hander a more attractive option for clubs looking to bolster their pitching depth with less than two weeks remaining until Opening Day. The dwindling time to find a new home before the season begins is perhaps even more significant for Clevinger than it is for other players left on the market, as the veteran has not been publicly connected to any of MLB’s 30 clubs since hitting free agency back in November.

Despite that lack of public interest, the veteran was clearly among the more interesting mid-to-back of the rotation options available this winter, even as free agency was just getting started. While Clevinger can hardly be expected to replicate the early-career dominance he enjoyed in Cleveland that saw him compare favorably to front-of-the-rotation arms such as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, a strong platform campaign with the White Sox last year saw Clevinger flash mid-rotation results. Despite being limited to just 131 1/3 innings by a right wrist injury, the veteran posted a solid 3.77 ERA with a 4.28 FIP in Chicago last season, with even stronger results after returning from the injury in late July. Over his final 12 starts last year, Clevinger pitched to a 3.67 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.75 FIP.

That solid mid-rotation performance comes with some questionable peripherals, however. While Clevinger’s velocity returned in his second season back from Tommy John surgery last year as he average 94.6 mph with his heater, he struck out just 20% of batters faced while generating grounders at a career-worst 30.9% clip. Clevinger’s below-average strikeout and groundball rates are a far cry from his peak years in Cleveland, when he struck out 28.3% of batters faced to go along with a 40.3% grounder rate. Even with those diminished peripherals, however, Clevinger figured to be an excellent option for a club looking to bolster the back of its rotation this winter.

Of course, that hasn’t panned out to this point as Clevinger remains on the market, but a rash of pitching injuries around the game could perhaps open the door for Clevinger to latch on with a club in need of starting depth entering the season. The Red Sox, Astros, Marlins, Yankees, and Giants have all faced unexpected injuries in the rotation throughout the spring, and Clevinger could be a cost-effective insurance policy for any of those clubs if they wish to bolster their rotation in light of those injuries. While the veteran right-hander can’t be expected to replace the production of a front-of-the-rotation arm such as Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, or Eury Perez, his ability to offer stability to the middle or back of a club’s rotation could help raise the floor for a rotation-needy club ahead of Opening Day. What’s more, his apparent desire for a straight one-year pact provides flexibility that could be particularly attractive to clubs such as the Astros or Marlins that figure to have plenty of rotation depth in the long-term but are currently struggling with multiple injuries.

TJ Friedl Facing Extended Absence Due To Wrist Fracture

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Reds center fielder TJ Friedl was pulled from yesterday’s game with what the club initially termed a right wrist sprain, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Since then, however, the club provided a far more dire update regarding Friedl’s status: the 28-year-old’s new diagnosis is a right wrist fracture that will keep him off the club’s Opening Day roster as he figures to miss an “extended period.” Per Wittenmyer, Friedl indicated to reporters this evening that he’ll have to wait for the bone to heal before he can resume baseball activities. While no timetable for Friedl’s return was specified, he expressed optimism that he play for the Reds at some point this year. He’ll be re-evaluated in three to four weeks to determine next steps in his rehab process.

The news is a major blow to the club’s chances in a competitive NL Central division this season. The 28-year-old was one of the club’s most reliable all-around contributors last year with a .279/.352/467 slash line in 138 games to go along with 27 stolen bases and strong defense in center field. That strong performance left Friedl in position to be one of the most crucial pieces in the club’s positional mix this season, particularly given the club’s relative lack of outfield depth in comparison to their famously deep infield mix. In Friedl’s absence, the club will likely turn to the likes of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild in center field to open the season. That would open up playing time on the infield corners for the likes of Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Jonathan India. Nick Martini and Bubba Thompson are among the club’s depth options in the outfield currently on the 40-man roster.

Between the loss of Friedl to injury and third baseman Noelvi Marte’s 80-game suspension following a positive test for the performance enhancing substance Boldenone, the Reds figure to enter the season with substantially less depth on the positional side than expected entering the season. That will mean additional opportunities- and additional pressure- for the club’s bevy of young infielders, which includes the likes of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, each of whom appear likely to get everyday at-bats alongside the likes of Jeimer Candelario, India, and Steer in the club’s infield mix while Friedl and Marte are unavailable. The club also has a handful of non-roster options who could provide additional infield depth coming off the bench, such as Tony Kemp and Josh Harrison.

While those internal options all figure to be under consideration for the Reds, Wittenmyer indicated that president of baseball operations Nick Krall didn’t rule out looking outside of the organization for additional help on the positional side in light of Friedl’s injury. The Reds made clear how much they valued their position player depth this winter when they not only decided against trading Jonathan India despite him being seemingly squeezed out of the club’s everyday lineup, but doubled down on that decision by adding Candelario to the infield mix on a three-year deal. Those decisions have already paid off in a big way for the club by softening the blow of losing Marte and Friedl before the 2024 season has even begun, and it would be understandable if Krall was interested in finding ways to further bolster the club’s depth.

With that being said, the Pirates’ recent deal with veteran outfielder Michael A. Taylor took the last surefire center fielder off the free agent market last week, meaning the Reds would likely be forced to look to the trade market if they hope to improve their current outfield mix. It would be a surprise to see Cincinnati swing a major move for another bat, though it’s certainly possible the club could look to add a veteran currently in camp with another club on a non-roster deal who isn’t rostered by his current organization, either by way of a minor trade before Spring Training comes to a close or perhaps simply by waiting for them to trigger an opt-out clause and return to the open market. Oscar Mercado, Tim Locastro, Brett Phillips, Rafael Ortega, Trayce Thompson, and Albert Almora are among the many veteran center fielders currently in camp with other clubs on minor league deals who could be speculative fits for a bench role with the Reds should they be made available.

Padres To Name Jackson Merrill Opening Day Center Fielder

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The Padres are poised to name top prospect Jackson Merrill the club’s Opening Day center fielder, per a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. The news comes just days before the club is set to face the Dodgers in a two-game regular season set in South Korea as part of MLB’s Seoul Series. Game 1 of that set is scheduled for 5:05am CT Wednesday morning, or 7:05pm local time that evening. The club will need to select Merrill’s contract before then, but won’t need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move as the roster currently stands at 36.

Merrill, 21 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport. The youngster is something of a surprising choice for the role, at least on paper. He’s not yet played a game above Double-A in his big league career, having slashed a solid but unspectacular .277/.326/.444 in 114 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Perhaps even more importantly, Merrill had never appeared in center field in a professional game until camp opened last month. His professional outfield experience to that point consisted of 45 innings of work in left field that season. Prior to that, his professional work had come almost exclusively at shortstop, though he also made brief cameos at both first and second base.

With all that being said, the club’s decision to go with Merrill in center field on Opening Day is certainly a defensible one. Prospect evaluators around the game are unanimous in their belief in Merrill’s talent, with Baseball America lauding him as a future middle-of-the-order threat who figures to have the power for 30 homers a year while Fangraphs describes him as having “one of the prettiest swings in the minors” with excellent contact abilities. Furthermore, while his lack of upper-level reps at the plate and professional time in center field will certainly raise some eyebrows, Merrill has clearly done everything he can to prove himself ready for a big league opportunity this spring. In 40 plate appearances across 13 games during camp, Merrill slashed an excellent .351/.400/.595 while playing solid defense in center.

Of course, the decision to roster Merrill as the club’s Opening Day center fielder is also the results of a host of other decisions outside of Merrill’s control. Chief among them is the club choosing to part ways with superstar Juan Soto alongside Trent Grisham in a trade with the Yankees that removed two of the club’s three Opening Day starters in the outfield last year from the roster back in December. Since then, the club has been tied to external outfield options including Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham. The likes of Taylor and Kiermaier have since signed elsewhere, however, and while there may be some momentum toward a deal with Pham, the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t appeared in center field on a regular basis since 2018, with just 15 starts up the middle in the years since then.

That lack of clear options for the center field job led the Padres to look toward their internal, non-roster pieces for their next center fielder. Fellow prospect Jakob Marsee as well as veterans such as Oscar Mercado and Tim Locastro all joined Merrill as potential solutions in center when camp began last month, though of that group only Mercado was able to keep up with Merrill’s blistering performance this spring and the club recently tipped their hand regarding their decision by including only Merrill, corner bats Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar, and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. as outfielders on their 31-man travel roster for the Seoul Series.

It’s possible Merrill won’t be the only rookie with minimal upper-minors experience on the club’s Opening Day lineup, as the club also included Graham Pauley on their travel roster for the coming series. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin indicated last week that Pauley was likely in position to fill in for veteran third baseman Manny Machado at the hot corner to open the season, as Machado will begin the season at DH while he recovers from elbow surgery, which he underwent back in October. Pauley, 23, was a 13th-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft and enjoyed a breakout season last year as he slashed a whopping .308/.393/.539 in 127 games split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels.

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