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Archives for September 2024

Julian Merryweather To Undergo Knee Surgery

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Cubs right-hander Julian Merryweather will be undergoing knee surgery tomorrow, says manager Craig Counsell. As relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X, it will be a right patellar tendon debridement. The skipper says Merryweather is expected to be ready by Spring Training. The pitcher himself says the rehab process will take three months, per Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM on X.

Merryweather seemed to develop into a key bullpen arm for the Cubs last year, as he tossed 72 innings with a 3.38 earned run average. His 11.9% walk rate was on the high side but he punched out 32.3% of batters faced. He moved into a leverage role for the club, securing two saves and 17 holds.

He wasn’t able to carry that over into 2024. He missed over three months due to a rib stress fracture and landed on the IL a second time last month due to right knee tendinitis, with the latter issue now requiring season-ending surgery. Around those ailments, he tossed 15 innings with a 6.60 ERA. There was probably some bad luck in there, as his .375 batting average on balls in play and 63.3% strand rate this year were both on the unfortunate side, but his strikeout rate also plummeted to 18.9%.

The righty has always been a tantalizing arm thanks to his high 90s velocity, but health has often been an obstacle. The Blue Jays acquired him from Cleveland as the return for Josh Donaldson in 2018, though Merryweather was recovering from undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier that year. He made his big league debut in 2020 but has since gone on the injured list for right elbow tendinitis, a left oblique strain and a left abdominal strain. The 2023 season is the only one in which he’s been able to throw at least 27 innings.

Merryweather reached arbitration for the first time last winter. He and the Cubs agreed to a salary of $1.175MM for 2024. He’ll be due a raise for next year but it won’t be huge, on account of his limited workload this year. He could also be retained via arbitration for 2026, before he’s slated to reach free agency. He’ll turn 33 years old next month.

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Catchers

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market. We’ll start things off with catchers. Ages listed are for the 2025 season, and stats are up to date through Sept. 18.

Potential Regulars/Platoon Options

Elias Diaz (34)

Diaz was the MVP of the 2023 All-Star Game, but he’s struggled to the point where that feels like a distant memory. The Rockies released him in August, a move that surprised some but came on the heels of a bleak slump following a calf injury. He later latched on with the Padres. Diaz made enough contact early in the season that he’s still sporting a .262 batting average, but it’s an empty .262 as it’s coupled with a .310 OBP and .369 slugging percentage. Since returning from the injured list in June, he’s hitting .198/.238/.259.

While he’s never been considered a strong defender, Diaz has posted above-average marks in 2024’s relatively small sample. If a club thinks he can sustain those over a full year and bounce back to the form he had prior to his calf strain, he could land another starting job. It’s also possible that his shaky defensive track record and grim finish to the season relegate him to part-time offers or even a minor league deal, however. He’s the most volatile name in this category with regard to his potential contract status.

Kyle Higashioka (35)

Higashioka has saved his best output of his career for his age-34 campaign. In his first season with the Padres, he’s swatted a career-high 16 homers in just 241 plate appearances. He’s a perennially plus defender behind the dish who rarely gets on base, and that hasn’t changed, but this year’s power output could pique the interest of clubs on a one- or two-year deal, despite his age.

Higashioka strikes out too much and doesn’t walk frequently enough, and that’s true versus both righties and lefties. His .223/.271/.487 batting line is one of the stranger slashes you’ll see across the league this season, but between his power and plus glovework he’s been worth 1.3 bWAR and 1.6 fWAR. It’s not out of the question to think a catching-needy club could see a potential two-win catcher here and give him the biggest role of his career. To this point, Higashioka has never logged even 300 plate appearances in a big league season.

Danny Jansen (30)

Jansen looked like the clear top option in this class coming into the season, but he’s tanked his stock with a .207/.309/.356 batting line. That 91 wRC+ is still about average for a catcher, but Jansen’s typically strong framing grades have taken a dive this season, as has his power. He’s hit just nine homers this year after popping 17 in 301 plate appearances a year ago and 15 in 248 plate appearances in 2022. This year’s .146 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-low mark.

Jansen is relatively young and from 2021-23 slashed a combined .237/.317/.487 with 43 taters in only 754 plate appearances — all while playing well-regarded defense. He could still land a multi-year deal based on that track record, but it’s not going to be nearly as strong of one as he’d have managed if he’d maintained his output over the three prior seasons. Jansen has also missed substantial time due to various injuries over the years — broken wrist, two separate broken fingers, oblique strain, groin strain, hamstring strain — and the “injury-prone” label won’t do him any favors.

Carson Kelly (30)

Kelly may have boosted his stock as much as Jansen harmed his own. The former top prospect has long been a terrific defender but looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022-23. In 2024, he’s lopped nearly nine percentage points off his strikeout rate, maintained a nearly average walk rate and improved not only the frequency of his contact but the quality of his batted balls as well.

The resulting .243/.320/.373 batting line is right on par with that of a league-average hitter and about 10% better than the average catcher. He’s also still a premium defensive backstop, evidenced by better-than-average framing and blocking marks as well as a 26% caught-stealing rate (30% with the Tigers, where he spent the bulk of the season). Kelly’s rebound has flown under the radar, but a league-average bat with a plus glove behind the plate heading into his age-30 season is a recipe for a multi-year deal and a potential regular role in 2025.

Gary Sanchez (32)

Sanchez’s defense has improved over the years. He’s not a liability behind the plate despite still being unable to completely shake off that label from earlier in his career. As that uptick in defensive value has transpired, however, his contributions with the bat have waned. He’s hitting .224/.313/.399 this season — roughly league-average offense — and has smacked 10 homers in 256 plate appearances. Sanchez has spent more time at DH than at catcher over the past two seasons but has fared better offensively when he’s in the game behind the plate.

Jacob Stallings (35)

Stallings’ elite defensive ratings from earlier in his career have declined to the point where he’s drawn below-average marks in three straight seasons. A downturn in his framing metrics are the primary cause for that deterioration, though he also posted well below-average caught-stealing marks in 2022-23. He’s rebounded with his throwing this season (23% caught-stealing). More than that, Stallings is enjoying far and away his best offensive season in the majors. His .260/.353/.450 batting line is “only” about 12% better than average by measure of wRC+, thanks to some heavy weighting for Coors Field, but Stallings has actually produced better numbers away from Coors than at home. A career year at age 34 is going to draw some skepticism, but he should draw a big league deal and receive decent playing time — perhaps even back with the Rockies, as there’s mutual interest in a reunion.

Backups/Depth Candidates

Tucker Barnhart (34)

Barnhart won a pair of Gold Gloves earlier in his career but has seen his glovework decline and his playing time dwindle as his bat has eroded. He hit .173/.287/.210 in 96 plate appearances with the D-backs this season and is likely looking at another minor league deal this winter.

Yan Gomes (37)

Gomes hit .154/.179/.242 in 96 plate appearances with the Cubs before being released in favor of fellow depth option Tomas Nido. He’s only a year removed from a solid season in Chicago, but coming off a season like that and heading into his age-37 campaign, he’ll very likely need to take a minor league deal if he wants to continue playing.

Yasmani Grandal (36)

A plus framer but one of the worst-throwing catchers in the sport at this point, Grandal has been a backup in Pittsburgh and posted a 9% caught-stealing rate this year. He’s hitting .218/.293/.371 with seven dingers in 228 plate appearances. He could land another backup gig, but he’s not a lock to land a big league deal.

Austin Hedges (32)

Hedges is as good as it gets defensively but nearly as bad as it gets offensively. He’s sporting a 23 wRC+ for the second straight season, indicating he’s been 77% worse than average at the plate. Since 2023, he owns a combined .173/.224/.227 line in 353 plate appearances. The Guardians love his glove so much they gave him $4MM and have kept him on the roster all season. He’ll likely command another low-cost one-year deal to serve as a backup.

Martin Maldonado (38)

Maldonado produced only a .119/.174/.230 slash in 147 plate appearances with the White Sox this season. He was better at the plate with the Astros from 2021-23 but still one of the sport’s least-productive hitters in that three-year stretch. Teams love Maldonado’s game-calling and work with their pitchers, but his lack of offense has reached dire levels.

James McCann (35)

McCann’s carrying trait used to be pummeling left-handed pitching, but he’s faded in that regard in recent years. He’s hitting .220/.266/.340 in 218 plate appearances with the Orioles. A minor league deal feels likely for the former White Sox and Mets backstop.

Omar Narvaez (33)

The Mets released Narvaez after he hit .154/.191/.185 in 69 plate appearances. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros and hit .203/.327/.316 for their Triple-A club. Narvaez hasn’t produced at the plate since 2021 and will be limited to minor league offers.

Tomas Nido (31)

Nido just signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. He’s been released by both the Mets and Cubs this season. Like many others on this list, he’s a plus defender with a negligible offensive ceiling. In his past 675 plate appearances in the majors, Nido is a .215/.249/.305 hitter — numbers that mirror his .210/.245/.309 line almost exactly.

Club Options

Austin Barnes (35) – $3.5MM club option

The Dodgers have long valued Barnes’ framing skills, but his throwing has cratered over the past two seasons, as he’s caught just 10.5% of runners attempting to steal against him. Barnes is hitting .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances. It’s a borderline call for the Dodgers to keep him, particularly with Will Smith now signed for a decade and a trio of younger catching options behind him (Hunter Feduccia, Dalton Rushing, Diego Cartaya). If he’s bought out, he’ll get some interest as a framing-driven backup.

Travis d’Arnaud (36) – $8MM club option (no buyout)

The Braves love d’Arnaud, who’s posted a solid .242/.306/.446 batting line and 14 homers in 317 plate appearances this season. Even if Atlanta doesn’t want to retain d’Arnaud at $8MM, they could turn down the option, pay no buyout, and try to bring him back at a lower rate.

Luke Maile (34) – $3.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Maile is typically regarded as a solid defender but has seen his glovework dip this year while posting one of the worst offensive performances of his career: .157/.255/.228 in 146 plate appearances. He’ll be a depth option for catcher-needy clubs on a minor league deal this winter.

Max Stassi (34) – $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Stassi hasn’t played this season due to hip surgery. His option will be bought out. He last appeared in a big league game in 2022. He’s regarded as a premium framer who has at times shown offensive upside, but he’ll be looking at a minor league deal this offseason.

Charlie Culberson Announces Retirement

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Long-time utility player Charlie Culberson announced his retirement in an Instagram post today. He gave his thanks to his fans, coaches, teammates, agent, friends and family members for all the contributions they made to his journey. He also spoke to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about his career and what might be next. He has considered coaching and broadcasting but thinks the latter is more likely.

Now 35, Culberson was drafted by the Giants in 2007 out of high school at the age of 18, going 51st overall. He developed into a notable prospect, getting attention for his ability to contribute in multiple facets of the game and at many positions. He made it to the majors with that club in cup-of-coffee fashion. He got into six games during the 2012 season and hit a meager .136/.136/.136 in his 23 plate appearances.

He was sent to the Rockies in the July 2012 trade that sent Marco Scutaro and cash considerations the other way. With Colorado, Culberson was able to get a bit more playing time, serving as a light-hitting utility guy. Over the 2013 and 2014 seasons, he got into 142 games for the Rockies, hitting .227/.273/.327 while playing all four infield positions and the outfield corners.

2015 was mostly a lost season for Culberson. He had surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back and didn’t play in the majors. He tells Toscano that he started thinking about his post-playing days at that time, as he didn’t know if any club would want him after the long layoff.

However, his best days as a player were still ahead. He had lost his roster spot with the Rockies and became a free agent, signing a minor league deal with the Dodgers going into 2016. His role with that club was fairly similar to his time in Colorado. He got into 49 games for the Dodgers over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, slashing .263/.289/.350 while bouncing between the outfield corners and the three infield positions to the left of first base. Perhaps the most memorable moment of his time in Los Angeles saw him hit a walk-off, 10th inning home run to clinch the West division for the club that year (YouTube clip from MLB). He also hit an extra-inning home run in Game Two of the 2017 World Series to pull the Dodgers within 7-6, though the Astros would keep the score there and win that game (YouTube clip from MLB).

In December of 2017, Culberson went to Atlanta in five-play swap largely motivated by financial considerations. Matt Kemp was sent to the Dodgers while Culberson, Adrián González, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy went the other way. This kicked off what was arguably the best part of Culberson’s career. A Georgia native, he became a fan favorite in Atlanta after hitting a couple of pinch-hit walk-off homers, earning the nickname “Charlie Clutch” (YouTube clips of those walk-offs from MLB).

Over the 2018 and 2019 campaigns, Culberson got into 221 contests for Atlanta and produced a league-average batting line of .267/.316/.457. As usual, he bounced all around the diamond, playing all four infield spots, the outfield corners, and even taking the mound for mop-up duty a few times. He was non-tendered after that 2019 season and re-signed with Atlanta for 2020 on a minors deal, eventually getting into 10 games in the shortened season.

He spent 2021 and 2022 with the Rangers, doing his usual utility thing. He hit .246/.292/.373 in 161 games over those two campaigns while playing every position except for center field and catcher. He was back in Atlanta for 2023 but bounced on and off the roster and only got one plate appearance. It was reported in January of this year that he was going to attempt to move to the mound and signed another minors deal with Atlanta, but he was released in March. He tells Toscano that he knew he was done at that time.

Culberson wasn’t a star player but clearly endeared himself to many fans by his still of play and penchant for coming through when it counted most. He got into 590 big league games and stepped to the plate 1,312 times. He collected 300 hits, including 30 home runs. He scored 140 runs, drove in 145 and stole 21 bases. Per Baseball Reference, he earned a bit over $5MM as a big leaguer. MLBTR salutes him on a fine career and wishes him luck for whatever is over the horizon.

Bo Bichette Placed On Injured List Due To Fractured Finger

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The Blue Jays announced Thursday that shortstop Bo Bichette suffered a fractured middle finger and has been placed on the 10-day injured list, ending his 2024 season. Bichette was scratched from yesterday’s lineup after suffering a hand injury during pregame fielding drills. Outfielder Jonatan Clase has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to take Bichette’s spot on the active roster.

The broken finger caps off a nightmare season for Bichette — one that’s seen the two-time All-Star weather a pair of IL stints due to calf strains that have severely hobbled him. Bichette only just returned from the injured list Tuesday and played in one game after a nearly two-month absence due to that ailing calf. He’ll close out the year with a wildly uncharacteristic .225/.277/.322 batting line and four homers — a far cry from the .299/.340/.487 batting line he carried into the 2024 campaign.

Bichette was the subject of trade rumblings early this summer, but Toronto GM Ross Atkins quickly shut down any real notion of selling low on his star shortstop when he said in mid-June that trading Bichette (or teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) “[didn’t] make any sense” for the Jays. While the Blue Jays ultimately operated as deadline sellers, they mostly moved players who’d have been up for free agency at the end of the current season.

All indications have been that Atkins & Co. want to retool the roster and take aim at a return to contending next season. Bichette, who recently voiced a strong desire to stay with the Jays, will presumably be a part of those efforts — although other teams around the league will likely at least inquire about the possibility of prying him loose from the only organization he’s known to this point in his career.

The 2025 season will be Bichette’s final year before reaching free agency for the first time. The Jays signed him to a three-year, $33.6MM deal buying out all three of his arbitration seasons back in February of 2023. That contract, which did not delay his path to the open market, calls for Bichette to earn $16.5MM next season in what will be his age-27 campaign.

MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers

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In today's mailbag, we get into a potential offseason plan for the Cardinals, the impact of managers, third base in Seattle, whether the Yankees should sign Juan Soto, NL playoff rotations, and much more.

Sam asks:

Hi Tim, imagine your phone rings and it's Bill DeWitt Jr. he says, "Tim, I've always liked your work at MLBTR and I've decided that I want to focus all my attention on acquiring as many Arby's as possible. 63 just isn't enough. So I've decided to gift you the St. Louis Cardinals and enough money to maintain the team's current ranking in payroll among the other 29 teams for the next 3 years, effective immediately." How do *you* Tim Dierkes go about fixing the Cardinals?

I generally support efforts to put more Arby's into the world.

The Cardinals' current competitive balance tax payroll is about $216MM, so I'll just stick with that.  That gives me about $92MM to work with.  Key arbitration eligibles include Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Andre Pallante.  I'm pretty sure those guys will cost less than $20MM, so if I tender them contracts I'll have about $75MM with which to work.

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Twins Outright Randy Dobnak

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Twins right-hander Randy Dobnak passed through waivers unclaimed and has been assigned outright to Triple-A St. Paul, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment earlier this week when Minnesota claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Orioles.

Dobnak has been outrighted in the past and thus has the right to reject the assignment, but he’s a lock to accept. Because he has fewer than five years of service time, he’d need to forfeit the remainder of this season’s $2.25MM salary and the $4MM he’s still owed beyond the current campaign ($3MM salary in ’25, $1MM buyout on a ’26 option) in order to elect free agency. There’s obviously no chance he’d do so, meaning he’ll head back to the Saints and remain with the Twins organization as a depth arm both for the remainder of this season and at least the 2025 season as well.

The 29-year-old Dobnak was a remarkable story back in 2019, when in just over a year’s time he rose from indie-ball pitcher and Uber driver to the Twins’ big league roster, even pitching in the playoffs that season. From 2019-20, Dobnak logged 75 innings of 3.12 ERA ball with a 15.7% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and massive 58.8% ground-ball rate. On the back of that performance, Minnesota inked him a five-year, $9.25MM contract extension that contained a trio of club options. It was a low-cost move that provided the Twins ample contractual upside if Dobnak proved capable of sustaining anything close to that pace, but injuries and a decline in his performance have rendered the deal underwater.

Dobnak was clobbered for a 7.64 ERA in 2021 after signing that deal. He hit the 60-day injured list late that season with a strained pulley tendon in his right middle finger and missed much of the 2022 campaign with a similar issue. He pitched just 25 minor league innings that year and none in the majors. The Twins removed him from the 40-man roster and passed him through waivers that September. Dobnak was healthy again in 2023 but struggled to a 5.13 ERA in 126 1/3 Triple-A frames.

The 2024 season has been something of a rebound campaign, at least in the Triple-A ranks. Dobnak has made 23 starts and four relief appearances for the Saints, working to a 3.90 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 57.4% grounder rate in 129 1/3 innings. That performance earned him another look in the big leagues, but he was tagged for five runs nine hits and five walks in 7 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment once again.

Chris Martin Expects 2025 To Be His Final Season

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Veteran reliever Chris Martin turned 38 in June and is a free agent at season’s end, but the Red Sox righty tells MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith that he still intends to play in 2025. Next year, however, will “95%” be his final season, per Martin himself. The towering 6’8″ righty discusses the decision at length in an interview with Smith that fans will want to read in full for a wide slate of candid quotes. Broadly, Martin cites a growing family — his wife is pregnant with their fourth child — and the increasing toll the game can take on one’s physical and mental health in the latter stages of a career for his plan to wrap things up after the ’25 campaign.

Martin has had separate IL stints in 2024 for a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury, right elbow inflammation and anxiety. He’s been effective when on the mound, posting a 3.35 ERA in 40 1/3 innings. As is typical for the big righty, he’s missed bats at an above-average level and shown off perhaps the best command in all of Major League Baseball. Martin has punched out 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a microscopic 1.2% clip. That’s a sensational mark even by his own lofty standards, but Martin’s career 3.2% walk rate (and 2.7% mark since 2021) has long illustrated his elite ability to locate the ball.

While Martin has lost a mile per hour off his four-seamer this season amid those injuries, he’s still checking it an average of 94.7 mph with the pitch. The slightly reduced fastball hasn’t adversely impacted him all that much; his 11% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last season’s mark, and his opponents’ 79.7% contact rate is down ever so slightly from last year’s 80% mark. If anything, his four-seamer has been more effective this year. Opponents hit .313 off the pitch and slugged .521 against it last year. Those marks are down to .241 and .389 in 2024. Martin’s sinker has been hammered by opponents this season, and he’s begun to throw it less frequently as a result (8.7% in ’24 compared to 15% in ’23). That’s contributed to a dip in ground-ball rate (51% last year, 44% this year), but the overall blend of whiffs, command and grounders remains an effective package for the nine-year big league veteran.

Notably, Martin didn’t address whether that final season would come with the Red Sox or with another club. It’d be a surprise if the Sox didn’t want him back, given how well he’s pitched under his current two-year, $17.5MM deal. He’s delivered 91 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates — all while piling up 37 holds and five saves along the way.

There will, of course, be widespread interest in Martin — as one would expect based on his overall track record. He’s rattled off six straight seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA and twice posted sub-2.00 marks in that stretch. Overall, Martin has a 2.79 earned run average, 83 holds and 13 saves dating back to 2019. Given his age and current plans to call it a career after the 2025 season, one would imagine he’ll prioritize signing with a contender in hopes of adding a second World Series ring to match the one he earned with the 2021 Braves.

[Related: 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List]

Martin will have plenty of competition on the relief market, but the fact that he’ll presumably limit himself to one-year offers should create a wide array of suitors. He’ll be one of the top leverage relievers on the market. Names like David Robertson, A.J. Minter, Yimi Garcia, Andrew Kittredge and Tommy Kahnle (to name a few) have had nice seasons working primarily in a setup capacity. Kirby Yates, Carlos Estevez, Clay Holmes, Aroldis Chapman and teammate Kenley Jansen are among the impending free agents who’ve spent a notable portion of the 2024 season working as a closer.

The Opener: Ohtani, NL Wild Card, Twins

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After the Yankees and Brewers punched their tickets to the postseason yesterday, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Ohtani approaches 50-50:

$700MM man and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani entered the 2024 season unable to pitch after undergoing elbow surgery last September, leaving him to act as a pure DH this season (for now, at least). That reality seemingly suggested that the rest of the National League would be able to avoid being overshadowed by the Dodgers’ new star in the first year of his contract, but Ohtani appears poised to make history in a new way: by becoming the first MLB player to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a single season.

It’s a feat that could propel Ohtani to another kind of history—the first MVP award win for a full-time DH—and with ten games to go in the regular season Ohtani is tantalizingly close to the milestone with 48 home runs and 49 steals. He’ll look to take another step toward history this afternoon in Miami, with first pitch scheduled for 4:40pm local time.

2. Key matchups for NL Wild Card contenders:

The NL Wild Card race has tightened up, with the Mets (84-68) and Diamondbacks (84-68) now tied in the standings while occupying the second and third spots. The Braves (82-70) are also still in the thick of the race, currently sitting two games behind Arizona and New York. Today could provide Atlanta the opportunity to make up ground in the race, as both the Mets and Diamondbacks are scheduled to begin series against tough opponents.

The Snakes are headed to Milwaukee for a set against a Brewers club that just clinched the NL Central, while a Phillies club that hopes to punch its own ticket to the postseason is headed for an evening game in Queens. Meanwhile, the Braves will have ace Chris Sale on the mound for a game against the Reds and rookie Julian Aguiar (4.88 ERA in six starts). The 35-year-old Sale will be looking to put the finishing touches on his resume for the NL Cy Young Award and inch closer to a possible pitching triple crown: Sale leads the majors with a 2.35 ERA and is tied for the major league lead with 17 wins this year. He’s just two strikeouts short of the MLB lead with 219 to Tarik Skubal’s 221, and just one behind Dylan Cease’s 220 strikeouts for the National League lead.

3. Twins barely holding on:

The Twins (80-72) have struggled badly down the stretch this year with a 5-10 record in their last 15 games. Those struggles have opened the door for a surging Tigers club (80-73) to force its way into contention for the AL Wild Card spot with an exactly inverted 10-5 record in their own last 15 games. With Detroit off today, the Twins will either either extend their lead to a full game or fall into a tie. Although Minnesota does hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the two clubs, the Twins surely don’t want the race getting any tighter.

To prevent that, they’ll have to best an 88-65 Guardians team that has started to run away with the AL Central and appears likely to enter the postseason with a bye through the Wild Card round. Cleveland won yesterday’s game between the two clubs in a one-run heartbreaker that extended to extra innings. The Twins will send rookie Simeon Woods Richardson (4.08 ERA in 26 starts) to the mound against struggling Guardians rookie Joey Cantillo (4.99 ERA in six starts). The game is scheduled for 1:10pm local time.

Orioles Designate Craig Kimbrel For Assignment

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Craig Kimbrel for assignment. Baltimore has recalled righty Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk in his place.

Kimbrel, 36, was signed to a one-year, $13MM deal over the winter after All-Star closer Felix Bautista required Tommy John surgery last October. The club banked on Kimbrel’s track record and excellent strikeout rate helping to solidify the ninth inning, even after Kimbrel had a shaky finish to his 2023 stint with the Phillies — including three innings of NLCS work wherein he yielded four runs.

At least early in the year, Kimbrel was generally effective, even while walking a highwire. His walk rate was up, but so was his strikeout rate, and in spite of four blown saves in the season’s first half he pitched to a pristine 2.10 earned run average. As things have gone off the rails since the All-Star break, he’s ceded the ninth inning to deadline pickup and former Phillies teammate Seranthony Dominguez.

Dating back to July 14, Kimbrel has been decimated for 25 runs (23 of them earned) in 18 innings of work. He’s yielded 23 hits (five of them homers), walked 17 batters and plunked a hitter during that disastrous run. The tipping point was a six-run meltdown in last night’s loss to the Giants. Kimbrel faced eight batters, allowed three hits (two singles and a double), walked two hitters and allowed a runner to advance on a wild pitch in what was his worst and likely last outing of the 2024 season.

Kimbrel will be placed on waivers, and he’ll surely clear. He’d be ineligible for the postseason roster with another club, and a claiming team would be on the hook for the prorated remainder of this year’s $12MM salary and the $1MM buyout on next year’s club option. No team is going to make that move. He’ll clear waivers and be released, at which point the club option will be moot (though the O’s will still owe him that $1MM buyout). He could sign with any other club for the final few days of the season, but it’s possible he’ll simply wait until the offseason to seek out his next opportunity.

Kimbrel’s second half has been so gruesome that it’s overshadowed his excellent first half, but a run of two bad months shouldn’t torch any and all interest in him over the winter. He’s not the dominant high-leverage force he once was, but he still fanned 31.5% of his opponents this season and turned in a strong 11.8% swinging-strike rate. His fastball is down from an average of 95.8 mph in 2023 to 93.9 mph in 2024, per Statcast. It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be handed a closing job this offseason, but assuming he wants to continue pitching, Kimbrel should find interest on lower-priced big league deals — perhaps with incentives based on games finished in the event that he ascends back to the closer’s role in his next destination.

Kimbrel currently ranks fifth all-time with 440 saves and is only six behind another still-active closer, Kenley Jansen, for the fourth spot on that list. Either pitcher could still catch Lee Smith for No. 3 all-time (478), but climbing north of 600 alongside Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman isn’t going to happen. In 809 2/3 career innings, Kimbrel has a 2.59 ERA, 56 wins, 26 holds and 1265 strikeouts (38.8%) to go along with those 440 saves.

Gavin Stone “Very Unlikely” To Return This Year

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced to reporters that right-hander Gavin Stone is still experiencing shoulder soreness and is “very unlikely” to return this year. Alden González of ESPN was among those to relay the news on X.

Stone landed on the IL September 6 due to right shoulder inflammation. The plan was for him to be shut down for about ten days, at which point the club would decide on a path forward based on how he felt. It seems that not much progress has been made and so the path back to the club has narrowed.

Prior to this injury, Stone was the most reliable member of a rotation that had suffered a great number of injuries. He tossed 140 1/3 innings over 25 starts, with both of those figures still leading the team. The only player close to him in those categories is Tyler Glasnow, who is also unlikely to come back this year, so Stone will finish 2024 as the team leader in those two categories. He had a 3.53 earned run average in that time as well as a 20% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate.

The health of the Dodger rotation, or lack thereof, has been an ongoing story throughout the year. Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan each required season-ending surgeries earlier in the campaign. As mentioned, Stone and Glasnow are both on the IL and unlikely to be healthy before the season’s done. Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw are also on the IL but still could contribute in the coming weeks. More on them below.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto also missed about three months due to a rotator cuff strain, though he is now back on the active roster. That’s a bit of positive news amid all the negative stuff, though there are questions there as well. Yamamoto returned before being fully stretched out and has only thrown four innings in each of his two outings since coming back. The kid gloves are apparently going to stay on, as Roberts said the club will continue to give him more than four days of rest between starts for the rest of the season and maybe into the playoffs as well, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times on X.

Around Yamamoto, the rest of the rotation has recently consisted of Jack Flaherty, Landon Knack, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Miller has an 8.52 ERA on the year and is being optioned today, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on X, Miller’s second optional assignment of the year. Buehler has also struggled, with a 5.54 ERA on the year. Knack has a strong 3.70 ERA but in just 56 career innings at the major league level. Flaherty is having a great year but there are some health concerns with him as well, as he had back problems with the Tigers that reportedly scuttled a deal to the Yankees before the Dodgers acquired him instead.

Whether the Dodgers will replace Miller in the rotation or simply use bullpen games to finish the year remains to be seen. They are off on Monday, which could perhaps help them get by with just four starters, though Yamamoto’s restrictions complicate things. The club is a virtual lock for the postseason but the remaining games on the schedule are still meaningful. They are only 3.5 games up on the Padres in the West and only two games ahead of the Brewers for the second bye through the Wild Card round, with the Phillies currently holding the top spot.

Even if the Dodgers are able to cruise into a first-round bye, building a playoff rotation is going to be a concern. Perhaps Gonsolin or Kershaw could help out, depending on how things develop over the next few weeks. Kershaw has been on the IL since late May due to a bone spur in his left big toe. He threw an 84-pitch bullpen session today, per Gonzalez on X, which is perhaps a good sign that he could still be a factor soon but the next steps aren’t clear.

As for Gonsolin, he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year and is currently on a rehab assignment. His first outing lasted two innings and the second went 2 2/3. Per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Roberts says Gonsolin will try to get through four innings in his next outing and then the club will talk about where to go from there. “It’s still a longer shot,” Robert said. “But I’m really impressed that Tony has taken this really seriously as a potential opportunity. He’s gonna take another one, and we’ll see from there.”

There are lots of moving parts and the club still has a chance to have a solid rotation consisting of Yamamoto and Flaherty with perhaps some combination of Knack, Buehler, Kershaw or Gonsolin in behind the front two. There even seems to be some non-zero chance that Shohei Ohtani takes a mound before the season is done, though that still seems like a real long shot.

The club and its fans know very well that a flimsy rotation can sink an otherwise strong season. Just last year, the Dodgers won 100 games but were quickly swept out of the playoffs by the Diamondbacks when injuries reduced their postseason rotation to Miller, Lance Lynn and an obviously-injured Kershaw. That will make their swirling rotation a key storyline in the coming weeks.

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