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Anthony Rizzo, Marcus Stroman On Yankees’ ALCS Roster

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The Yankees announced their ALCS roster this morning, revealing that first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Marcus Stroman are back in the fold after sitting out their Division Series win over the Royals.

Rizzo suffered a pair of broken fingers when he was hit by a pitch in September and was seen as a borderline call for the League Championship Series as he worked through his rehab. Stroman was healthy but not included on the Division Series roster after skipper Aaron Boone made what he described as a difficult decision to exclude the veteran in favor of an extra bat in a five-game series. With the Yankees now likely to rely on four starters rather than three, Stroman is back in the mix.

Rizzo has had a rough season overall, enduring multiple IL stints and posting a career-worst .228/.301/.335 batting line in 92 games and 375 plate appearances. He’s one of the team’s most experienced playoff veterans, however, carrying 203 career plate appearances — including a hefty .276/.432/.552 slash in nine playoff games as a member of the Yankees. Rizzo was also a thorn in the side of the Guardians this season, going 5-for-13 with a double, a walk and three RBIs in the three games he was healthy enough to face them.

Stroman inked a two-year deal with the Yankees last offseason and started 29 games for them in 2024 (in addition to one relief appearance). He pitched 154 2/3 innings, logging a 4.31 ERA with a 16.7% strikeout rate, an 8.9% walk rate and a 49.2% grounder rate. Both that strikeout rate and ground-ball rate represent notable steps back from Stroman’s 2023 levels, and this year’s 90 mph average velocity on his sinker was the lowest of his career by a wide margin (replacing last year’s 91.4 mph average). The Yankees currently have Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt lined up to start the first three games of the series, which starts tonight at 7:38pm ET in the Bronx.

Noticeably absent from the Yankees’ roster in the ALCS is southpaw Nestor Cortes. Like Rizzo, he’d been dealing with an injury and was seen as a borderline call. He’s been out with a flexor strain in his left elbow, but imaging revealed no damage to Cortes’ ulnar collateral ligament, and he’d recently been throwing after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. Presumably, they’ll reevaluate him and consider him as a potential option for the World Series, should the Yankees topple the Guardians and advance to the Fall Classic.

The Yankees will drop speedy outfielder and pinch-running/defensive specialist Duke Ellis as well as catcher/first baseman Ben Rice from the roster for this series. Ellis appeared in only one game of the ALDS (Game 4) and did not record a plate appearance. Rice did not get into a game in the Division Series, as the Yankees instead went with utilitymen Jon Berti and Oswaldo Cabrera at first base in place of the injured Rizzo.

Here’s the full breakdown of New York’s roster as they battle Cleveland for the AL pennant:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Utility Players

Pitchers

Guardians Add Pedro Avila To ALCS Roster

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The Guardians set their roster for their ALCS showdown with the Yankees and announced only one change from their ALDS roster: infielder/outfielder Angel Martinez has been swapped out for right-handed reliever Pedro Avila.

Martinez, 22, was a mid-series addition to the ALDS roster, taking the place of Tyler Freeman after he suffered a left oblique strain. Freeman didn’t get into a game during the Division Series but sustained the injury during a simulated game ramping up for that round of play. Martinez took his spot on the roster but only wound up tallying one plate appearance. With the Guards now facing down a best-of-seven series, they’ll opt for an additional arm in the bullpen rather than a switch-hitting utilityman off the bench.

Avila, 27, was acquired from the Padres in exchange for cash back in April after San Diego had designated him for assignment. He went on to play a major role as a multi-inning option out of Stephen Vogt’s bullpen, appearing in 50 games and tallying 74 2/3 innings with Cleveland. Along the way, he pitched to a 3.25 ERA, fanned 23% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9.4% clip and kept 43.1% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground.

Avila was primarily used in lower-leverage spots and will presumably work in a similar capacity if called upon in the ALCS. He had several appearances spanning more than one frame in 2024, topping out with a handful of three-inning outings.

The ALCS will kick off tonight in New York at 7:38pm ET, when the Guards send veteran righty Alex Cobb to the mound against Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Neither has fared particularly well in the postseason thus far. Game 2 will feature a battle of staff aces when Cleveland sends young Tanner Bibee to the mound against 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound in Game 3 on Thursday. The Guardians have not yet announced a starter in Game 3. Matthew Boyd and Gavin Williams are the only two other starters on the roster.

Overall, Cleveland’s ALCS roster breaks down as follows:

Catchers

Infielder

Outfielders

Pitchers

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 postseason is well underway, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: NLCS, ALCS, Yankees

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. NLCS Game 2:

The NLCS kicked off yesterday as the Dodgers completed a 9-0 rout of the Mets following a tough start from right-hander Kodai Senga where he allowed three runs in 1 1/3 frames without recording a strikeout. L.A. countered with a brilliant performance from righty Jack Flaherty, who notched six strikeouts across seven scoreless innings. The Mets will hope to turn things around today with lefty Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) on the mound. Manaea has been perhaps the club’s most reliable starter to this point in the postseason, with a 2.25 ERA and ten strikeouts in 12 innings of work between the Wild Card and Division Series. The Dodgers, on the other hand, will look to extend their record-tying streak of 33 scoreless postseason innings with Ryan Brasier on the mound to start a bullpen game. Brasier struggled a bit in the NLDS, surrendering two runs on three hits (including a homer) and striking out two across 3 2/3 innings of work.

2. ALCS Game 1:

While the Mets look to make up their deficit in the NL, the ALCS will get underway in New York as the Yankees welcome the Guardians to the Bronx. Lefty Carlos Rodon (3.96 ERA) will take the mound for the Yankees on the heels of a tough outing against Kansas City during the ALDS where he surrendered four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work despite striking out seven Royals and walking none. The Guardians will counter with Alex Cobb. The 37-year-old veteran made just three regular season starts due to injury (2.76 ERA). In his lone postseason start against the Tigers last week, Cobb struck out two while surrendering two runs in three innings of work.

3. Yankees facing roster decisions:

With ALCS rosters due later today, the Yankees spent yesterday working out at Yankee Stadium while club brass worked toward finalizing their roster plans. Two injured players in particular appear to be on the bubble of the playoffs roster: first baseman Anthony Rizzo and lefty Nestor Cortes. Rizzo did some fielding work during yesterday’s workout, though Dan Martin of the New York Post writes that the club has yet to make a decision on his availability and could once again turn to Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at the position, as they did against the Royals.

Meanwhile, Greg Joyce of the New York Post was among those to note yesterday that the Yankees are “considering” activating Cortes for the ALCS. Cortes has been sidelined since late September due to a flexor strain in his left elbow, but imaging revealed an undamaged UCL so the lefty received a platelet-rich plasma injection and returned to rehabbing. The southpaw posted a 3.77 ERA across 174 1/3 innings of work for the Yankees this year but would surely be relegated to a relief role if activated, adding another lefty to the club’s bullpen alongside Tim Hill and Tim Mayza.

Luis Arraez Interested In Extension With Padres

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After being traded for the second time in as many years back in May when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that sent a four-player package back to Miami, Luis Arraez told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s looking forward to the stability of knowing where he’s going to play next year. Not only that, Arraez even expressed interest in a longer-term deal to keep him in San Diego beyond the end of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to reach free agency for the first time.

“It means a lot of good things,” Arraez said, as relayed by Cassavell. “If they want to sign me, I want to stay here. This is business. I understand the business. But I hope I stay here for a long time.”

Arraez is in for a healthy payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in his final trip through arbitration. It’s a hefty price to pay for Arraez unique but somewhat limited skill set. Arraez has never provided much defensive value even when he primarily played second base with the Twins and Marlins. That changed upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, as the Padres used him at the keystone in just nine games while otherwise splitting his time between first base (where he profiles as a below average defender) and DH.

Meanwhile, Arraez’s elite contact is held back by lackluster plate discipline and a lack of power. While Arraez just won his third consecutive batting title with an excellent .314 average, he was just 9% better than the league average hitter by wRC+ thanks to a paltry 3.6% walk rate and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest power production among all qualified hitters this year. An injury could help explain Arraez’s downturn in production after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, however: the infielder told reporters (including Cassavell) that he’s been playing through a thumb injury this year and is set to undergo an MRI to further explore the situation now that the Padres’ season has come to a close.

If Arraez would be open to a long-term deal at a lower average annual value than the $14.6MM figure he’s currently projected to earn via arbitration this winter, it’s not hard to imagine the Padres having incentive to put a deal together. After all, RosterResource projects the club for a luxury tax payroll just over $243MM in 2025, around $2MM above the lowest tax threshold of $241MM. Meanwhile, the club’s actual payroll is projected for just over $207MM, an increase of nearly $50MM over 2024’s $169MM figure. While specifics of the club’s payroll plans for 2025 are not yet clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “committed” to a payroll closer to their 2024 figure than 2023, when they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

With needs in the starting rotation and outfield that will have to be addressed this winter, San Diego brass may wind up needing to get creative in order to afford the additions necessary this winter. Extending Arraez could be one such creative route to a lower payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used under A.J. Preller in the past. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of the most notable recent examples of players who were signed or extended on contracts designed to mitigate their luxury tax impact, and it’s even possible an Arraez extension could be somewhat back-loaded in order to free up more dollars for the 2024 team.

Of course, such an arrangement would require the Padres to have Arraez in their plans beyond the 2025 season. It’s not yet clear if Arraez’s desire to remain in San Diego beyond the life of his club control is reciprocated by club brass, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did highlight Arraez recently as an “obvious” extension candidate for the club and emphasized San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s unique skill set. There would surely be other obstacles to workaround in order to make a long-term deal into reality even if the interest is mutual, of course, not least of which would be Arraez’s status as one of the league’s most difficult to value players.

Justin Dunn To Hold Showcase For Interested Teams

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Right-hander Justin Dunn is holding a showcase for scouts on Tuesday, according to the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham.  Just a few weeks after his 29th birthday, Dunn is looking to exhibit both his pitching repertoire and his health after missing essentially two full seasons.  Dunn was limited to 3 1/3 innings in the Reds’ farm system in 2023 due to a rotator cuff issue and then a shoulder surgery in September of that year, and he didn’t pitch at all this season while rehabbing from that procedure.

A highly-touted arm during his time at Boston College, Dunn was picked 19th overall by the Mets in the 2016 draft.  His time in New York’s pipeline didn’t last long, as he was one of the headline pieces of the five-player trade package the Mets sent to the Mariners in December 2018 for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.  Back in March 2022, Dunn was part of another prominent deal when Seattle moved him, Jake Fraley, Brandon Williamson, and Connor Phillips to the Reds in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker.

Dunn was already dealing with shoulder problems at the time of the latter trade, though the Reds were aware and made the deal anyway, perhaps since their primary concern was dumping salary rather than maximizing the player return.  This injury-marred 2022 season saw Dunn post a 6.10 ERA over seven starts and 31 innings for Cincinnati, and he hasn’t since pitched in the majors.  Dunn opted into minor league free agency last winter after the Reds outrighted him off their 40-man roster.

While injuries have thrown a roadblock into Dunn’s career, he had a respectable 3.94 ERA over 102 2/3 innings and 25 starts with the Mariners during the 2019-21 seasons.  That ERA comes with a few asterisks, however, as Dunn has benefited from some good fortune despite shaky peripherals.  A .215 career BABIP has been the biggest helper, since Dunn hasn’t missed many bats (19.3% strikeout rate) and struggled with his control (14.7% walk rate) during his brief MLB career.

Even when Dunn was appearing near the back of top-100 prospect lists, some scouts felt relief pitching was a better path for his big league future than a rotation job.  Dunn might well explore such a role change as a nod to his arm health or simply to better his results, but at this point, he is surely open to whatever contract offers might be on the table.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him land a minor league deal and a Spring Training invitation from this showcase, as he represents a no-risk flier for teams looking for pitching depth.

Mariners, Logan Gilbert Yet To Have Serious Extension Talks

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Logan Gilbert is coming off his best season yet, posting a 3.23 ERA and outstanding strikeout and walk rates over a Major League-leading 208 2/3 innings.  The former 14th overall pick has lived up to the hype since making his MLB debut in 2021, and while he has cemented his place in the Mariners’ rotation, he isn’t yet a lock for the team’s future plans.  Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that “there has been little discussion about a long-term deal” between the two sides, and “nothing is imminent in that regard.”

There are several reasons why the lack of talks shouldn’t raise an alarm for M’s fans.  Gilbert is only entering his second year of arbitration eligibility, and he is under team control through 2027 as a Super Two player.  Gilbert and the Mariners avoided a hearing last winter by agreeing to a $4.05MM salary for 2024, and the right-hander’s big performance this year has put him in line for a projected $8.1MM salary in 2025.

Those numbers will keep rising if the 27-year-old Gilbert keeps pitching well in his remaining arb years, but that would still represent a relative bargain for the Mariners to have ace-level production in their rotation.  Signing Gilbert to an extension prior to Opening Day would give the M’s some cost-certainty through the rest of his arbitration years and beyond, and such a deal might still end up being a bargain since Gilbert might just be getting better.

The 2024 season saw Gilbert post a career-best 27.4% strikeout rate and 31.7% whiff rate, in addition to his usual excellent control.  His 39.3% hard-hit ball rate was also the best of his four Major League seasons, and while this only ranked in the 44th percentile of all pitchers, Gilbert had never topped the 11th percentile in any of his prior three years.

As a whole, Seattle’s rotation is not only perhaps the best in baseball but also the most cost-effective.  Luis Castillo has the big contract of the bunch in the form of the five-year, $108MM extension he signed in September 2022, but Gilbert is entering his second arb year, George Kirby is projected for $5.5MM in his first arb year, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are still in their pre-arbitration years.  Former sixth overall pick Emerson Hancock hasn’t shown much over his 72 2/3 career MLB innings, but he is another promising young arm that would’ve gotten a longer look in pretty much any rotation that didn’t have such quality and durability.

This abundance of pitching talent is great for the Mariners in many ways, including the level of flexibility it gives the team in approaching extension talks.  With a nod to the “you can never have enough pitching” credo, the M’s don’t necessarily need to lock up Gilbert as soon as possible since so many other talented hurlers are on hand.  All of the remaining team control for the non-Castillo pitchers gives the Mariners extra time to weigh their options about which of the younger arms (if any) can be long-term cornerstones.  For instance, if the M’s have already seen enough from Miller or Woo, signing either to an extension earlier in their careers would come at a lower cost than an extension for Gilbert.

If any of these starters aren’t really in Seattle’s big-picture plans, a trade is always possible, which is the broader theme of Jude’s piece.  President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has strongly downplayed the idea that the Mariners will deal from their rotation this offseason, though Dipoto’s stance could soften if another team makes a strong enough offer.  Specifically, if that offer contains a comparatively talented young hitter with extra years of team control, moving a starter for this hitter would help a Seattle club in sore need of offensive help.

This isn’t to say that Gilbert would necessarily be the pitcher traded, escalating salary notwithstanding.  One NL scout told Jude that “if they have to trade someone, Miller would make the most sense,” though the scout also felt “it would be ridiculous for them to trade any of their starters.”  As Jude notes, Miller has such drastic home/away splits (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings in Seattle, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings elsewhere) that other teams may be wary that Miller’s success has been a product of his pitcher-friendly ballpark.  Castillo is the least-likely trade candidate, according to one source, due to his larger contract and the fact that he’s entering his age-32 season.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Urueta, Albernaz, Painter, Yepez

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The Marlins are reportedly considering former bench coach Luis Urueta and Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz for their managerial vacancy, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  Urueta is perhaps something of an unusual candidate since the Marlins already fired him as part of their wide-ranging purge of the coaching staff, training staff, and clubhouse attendants, though reports indicated that Urueta and Jon Jay were the only two coaches Miami had interest in bringing back.  It isn’t known if the Marlins have conducted formal interviews with Urueta, Albernaz, or any other candidates, though in Albernaz’s case, his availability is limited until the Guardians’ playoff run is over.

Urueta served as the Marlins’ interim manager for the final two games of the season after a family health matter forced Skip Schumaker to miss what was the last weekend of his two-season tenure in Miami.  Urueta was also the bench coach for those two seasons under Schumaker, and his previously MLB coaching job was a five-year stint on the Diamondbacks’ staff from 2018-22 (acting as bench coach for the last three of those seasons).

Albernaz is still in the midst of his first season as Cleveland’s bench coach, after previously working as a bullpen and catching coach for the Giants from 2019-22, and before that working in a variety of roles in the Rays’ farm system after his playing career ended in 2014.  As Heyman notes, this resume makes him a known quantity to Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix (previously Tampa Bay’s general manager) and to assistant GM Gabe Kapler, formerly the Giants’ manager when Albernaz was on the staff.  Albernaz was interviewed by the Guards last offseason about their own managerial vacancy before Stephen Vogt was hired, and thought enough of Albernaz to still bring him aboard onto Vogt’s staff.

More from around the NL East…

  • Andrew Painter’s first outing in the Arizona Fall League saw the Phillies prospect allow two runs over 29 pitches and two innings of work, with Jack Vita of the Philadelphia Inquirer noting that three of Painter’s fastballs hit the 100mph threshold.  It was the first game action of any kind for Painter since Spring Training 2023, when he suffered a UCL sprain that eventually led to Tommy John surgery that July.  “The arm’s healthy and that was the biggest takeaway,” Painter told Vita and other reporters.  “Everything felt like it was coming out good.  I felt like my old self, so that’s all I can really take away from that.”  While the surgery halted the progress of one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Painter should be in line to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025, though obviously the Phillies will be cautious with his development.  Painter is slated to throw 20 innings in AFL play and will start next season in the minors — the right-hander has yet to reach the Triple-A level and has only 28 1/3 frames of experience in Double-A ball.
  • Juan Yepez, Joey Meneses, and Andres Chaparro are all right-handed hitting first basemen who are possibly best suited to DH duty, and these similarities make it unlikely that all three are on the Nationals’ roster next season.  Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com thinks Yepez probably has the best chance of the trio, as Yepez hit a solid .283/.335/.429 over 249 plate appearances for Washington in 2024 and had particularly good splits against left-handed pitching.  That might be enough to make the difference in deciding possible platoon or part-time roles for next year’s club.

Padres Notes: Profar, Higashioka, De Vries, Salas

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The postseason will move on without the Padres involved tonight when the Mets travel to Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLCS, and the Padres now figure to turn their attention to building for the 2025 season. Among the top needs to address on the club’s offseason to-do list figures to be addressing the needs created by the possible departure of pending free agents. Infielder Ha-Seong Kim is perhaps the club’s most high-profile free agent, though between his recent surgery leaving questions regarding his market and San Diego’s considerable depth in the middle infield, left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Kyle Higashioka are likely higher priorities for the club to either return or replace.

In the case of Profar, the 31-year-old has made clear that he prefers to stay with the Padres. Profar told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday that he hopes to return to San Diego next year before acknowledging that the decision isn’t “totally in [his] hands,” adding that the Padres “have got to want [him], too.”

After signing a one-year deal with the Padres over the offseason that guaranteed him just $1MM last year, Profar enjoyed a breakout season that is sure to earn him a significant pay raise headed into 2025. In 158 games with San Diego this year, Profar slashed an excellent .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 home runs, 10 steals, a strong 11.1% walk rate and an excellent 15.1% strikeout rate. That strong all-around play came together to create by far the most valuable season of Profar’s career as he posted 4.3 fWAR, leaving him sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker as the seventh most valuable outfielder in baseball this year.

That strong season should make Profar among the most interesting free agents of the winter. Valuable as his offense was this year, he provides virtually no defensive value as a below-average glove limited to left field and his track record on offense is spotty at best. Profar’s career wRC+ is actually below league average (99) even after this year’s phenomenal campaign, and even his 107 wRC+ since first joining San Diego in 2020 is closer to solid than spectacular for a player of Profar’s limited defensive value. If those possible red flags leave teams cautious about giving Profar a hefty guarantee, it’s certainly feasible to imagine the sides working something out to keep the veteran in San Diego going forward.

Of course, a Profar reunion would only serve to further elevate what already figures to be a complicated payroll picture for the Padres next year. The club is currently set to be on the hook for just over $207MM according to RosterResource next year, with a payroll of more than $243MM for luxury tax purposes. It’s possible that offseason trades or perhaps even a creative extension for an arbitration-level player like Luis Arraez could lower those numbers, but the Padres nonetheless appear likely to be nearing their payroll capacity even before reuniting with Profar or addressing the multiple holes in the club’s rotation.

That could leave the Padres needing to scrimp on other parts of the roster, particularly if they hope to retain Profar. One position where the club could look to save money is behind the plate, where Kyle Higashioka impressed in his final year before free agency with 17 homers in 263 trips to the plate for the Padres this year. Much like Profar, Higashioka indicated an interest in returning to the Padres as he heads into free agency, telling reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that he loved playing in southern California and that his time with the Padres has been the most fun he’s had with a team.

With Higashioka potentially in line for a hefty raise this winter, however, Acee suggests that San Diego brass could instead look to part ways with both him and Kim this winter as they wait for the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Catcher Ethan Salas entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball after reaching the Double-A level as a 17 year old, but Acee notes that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries, who turned 18 just two days ago, is even more highly regarded by Padres brass.

What’s more, Acee notes that there have been discussions within the organization about the possibility of both teenage phenoms making their big league debuts as soon as 2025. If the Padres truly believe both players could be ready for the majors sometime next year, that could incentivize them to focus on other areas of the roster this winter and stick to relatively short-term options behind the plate and at shortstop who could be pushed aside in the event that Salas or De Vries cracks the big league roster.

Of course, both players would need to rocket through the minor leagues at a breakneck pace to reach the majors next year. Salas spent the entire 2024 season at the High-A level and slashed a lackluster .206/.288/.311 in 111 games with the club, while De Vries slashed an excellent .238/.361/.442 across 75 games in his first taste of professional action this year but has not yet played above the Single-A level. While breakout rookie Jackson Merrill stands as an example of San Diego’s willingness to push top prospects aggressively, even he had nearly 50 games of success in the upper minors before cracking the big league roster.

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