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Mauricio Dubon To Undergo Thumb Surgery

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Astros infielder/outfielder Mauricio Dubon is slated to undergo surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb this week, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Dubon played the final month of the season with the torn the ligament, Rome reports. The recovery period will be around six to eight weeks, leaving ample time for the versatile utilityman to be healed up by spring training.

Houston acquired the 30-year-old Dubon in a May 2022 trade that sent journeyman catcher Michael Papierski back to the Giants. He’s since emerged as a key role player for the ’Stros, hitting .274/.303/.388 in 920 plate appearances over the past two seasons while playing everywhere on the diamond other than on the mound or behind the plate. Rome notes that Dubon suffered the injury on a slide in early September but went on to hit .291/.322/.346 down the stretch while playing through considerable pain. Though he lacks power, Dubon is an exceptionally tough strikeout (12.9% this past season) and excels on the defensive side of the game, evidenced by a Gold Glove in 2023.

Dubon is arbitration-eligible this offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a reasonable $4.6MM salary. That’ll stand as a raise over this year’s $3.5MM salary, which he earned after winning an arb hearing over the Astros back in February.

While injuries can at times be a catalyst for an arb-eligible player to be non-tendered, that’s highly unlikely in this instance. The Astros can control Dubon through the 2026 season, and there’s no reason to think the surgery will impact his readiness for the 2025 campaign. He should return to the same utility role that saw him log 93 innings at first base, 138 at second base, 75 at third base, 32 at shortstop, 405 in left field, 153 in center field and 88 in right field this past season. As a career .281/.324/.442 hitter against southpaws, he should also be a regular piece of Houston’s attack versus lefties (even if he had a down showing in that regard this past season).

The Opener: NLDS, ALDS, Rojas

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Phillies, Dodgers facing elimination:

Both NLDS series are on the verge of ending in an upset after the Phillies and Dodgers each fell to their divisional rivals last night, leaving them just one loss from elimination. The Phillies will send lefty Ranger Suarez (3.46 ERA) to the mound in Queens with their season on the line, while the Mets will hope to knock their rival out of the race with veteran southpaw Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA).

Meanwhile, a tense Dodgers-Padres series continues tonight with right-hander Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA) on the mound for San Diego on just three days of rest. Cease started Game 1 for the Padres but was pulled after struggling through 3 1/3 innings where he surrendered five runs on six hits and a pair of walks with two strikeouts. The Dodgers have not yet announced who they’ll counter Cease with, but all hands will be on deck in a potential elimination game.

2. ALDS kicks back into gear:

After an off-day yesterday, both ALDS series — each tied at 1-1 — are back in action today. Guardians right-hander Alex Cobb will take the mound in Detroit after making just three starts this season due to hip, shoulder and finger injuries. The Tigers have not yet announced a starter for today’s game. Thus far, they’ve operated with ace Tarik Skubal as their only true starter as the rest of the pitching staff takes on more flexible roles as directed by manager A.J. Hinch in what the skipper has termed “pitching chaos.”

Later in the evening, the Yankees will send right-hander Clarke Schmidt (2.85 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound in Kansas City opposite veteran righty Seth Lugo (3.00 ERA in 33 starts). Schmidt’s only postseason experience is an 11.57 ERA in three appearances out of the bullpen back in 2022 while Lugo is coming off a solid performance against the Baltimore in the Wild Card Series, where he pitched 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball and struck out six Orioles against just one walk.

3. Rojas day-to-day headed into Game 3:

Turning back to the NLDS, the Dodgers may face elimination with their lineup at less than full strength. Veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas has been playing through an adductor injury this postseason, and he was forced to leave last night’s game in the third inning after aggravating the injury. The shortstop told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) after the game that he’ll need to see how he feels today before he’ll know if he can play in what could be the final game of L.A.’s season. Rojas noted that in the past the next day is “more painful” than the initial problem when it comes to aggravating his adductor injury. In the event that Rojas isn’t available, the club seems likely to turn to Tommy Edman at shortstop, moving him in from center field where he would then be replaced by Andy Pages. First baseman Freddie Freeman has also been playing through an ankle injury that has left him visibly hobbled on the field, as seen last night when he limped to the dugout after hitting a single and being lifted for a pinch-runner.

Luis Tiant Passes Away

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Three-time All-Star pitcher Luis Tiant passed away this morning, the Red Sox confirmed. He was 83 years old. The right-hander played for seven organizations throughout his 19-year MLB career, though he is best remembered for the eight seasons he spent in Boston.

“Luis had a style of pitching that was as memorable as it was effective, but to me, the rarer gift was his ability to lift you up with just a smile,” said Red Sox president & CEO Sam Kennedy, as part of a statement issued by the team. “When you were with him, you were reminded of what really matters. Whether you were a teammate, a fan, or just someone fortunate enough to share a conversation, Luis had a way of making you feel special, like you were a close friend. His legacy on the mound is undeniable, but all of us today are mourning the man, the friend, the mentor who connected generations of fans and players. I am gutted by the news of his passing and will miss him more than words can express. Spring Training won’t be the same without Luis’s infectious energy spreading throughout camp.”

Tiant was born in Marianao, Cuba on November 23, 1940. His father, Luis Tiant Sr., was himself a star pitcher in the Negro Leagues, as well as the Cuban League, Dominican League, and Mexican League. It didn’t take long for the younger Luis Tiant to make a name for himself, pitching for the Mexico City Tigers of the Mexican League and Havana Sugar Kings in the International League as a teenager.

At 21 years old, Tiant made his debut in Cleveland’s minor league system. Two years later, he joined the major league team, making 19 appearances (16 starts) with a 10-4 record and a 2.83 ERA in 127 innings pitched. Across six seasons in Cleveland from 1964-69, he threw 1,200 innings with a 2.84 ERA and an 83 ERA- (17% better than the league average). His 1,041 strikeouts ranked 11th among all pitchers in that time. The highlight of Tiant’s tenure in Cleveland was the 1968 season, in which he went 21-9 and led the American League with a 1.60 ERA. He made his first career All-Star team that year and finished fifth in voting for AL MVP.

Following a disappointing 1969 season (for both Tiant and Cleveland), Cleveland traded Tiant and Stan Williams to Minnesota in exchange for Dean Chance, Bob Miller, Ted Uhlaender and Graig Nettles. However, his time with the Twins was brief. He pitched well when he was on the mound, going 7-3 with a 3.40 ERA (89 ERA-) over 92 2/3 innings, but a broken scapula derailed his season in May. At the time, that was considered a much more serious injury – possibly even career-threatening – and indeed, Tiant did not look nearly as sharp upon his return. The Twins released him the following spring.

After a brief and unsuccessful stint in the Braves minor league system, Tiant caught the attention of the Red Sox organization. It turned out to be a match made in baseball heaven. While he struggled in his first season with his new club, the righty turned things around the following year. He introduced his now-trademark deceptive delivery and went 15-6 with an MLB-leading 1.91 ERA. He finished sixth in Cy Young voting and earned some down-ballot support for AL MVP.

Over eight years in Boston, Tiant went 122-81 with a 3.36 ERA (85 ERA-) in 1,774 2/3 innings pitched. He was named to a couple of All-Star teams and earned Cy Young and MVP votes in three seasons (1972, ’74, ’76). He led the AL in WHIP in 1973 and tied for the major league lead with seven shutouts in 1974. In 1975, he played a pivotal role in the playoffs, pitching a complete game in Game 1 of the ALCS, and 25 innings over three starts in the World Series. The Red Sox won all four games he started, but they lost all four games he did not pitch in the World Series, losing to the Reds in seven games.

As he entered his mid-thirties, Tiant became more of a precision pitcher, getting fewer strikeouts but also giving up fewer walks. He was a valuable contributor to the Red Sox every season from 1972-78, even as he became less durable (by 1970s standards) in his final two years with the club. Unfortunately, his tenure with the Red Sox ended on slightly sour terms; Tiant believed the team didn’t take him seriously in negotiations when his contract was up after the 1978 campaign (per John Powers of the Boston Globe).

Thus, Tiant spent the final four years of his career with the Yankees (1979-80), Pirates (1981), and Angels (1982). He made 55 starts and threw 332 innings over his age-38 and 39 seasons in New York, but his major league career was winding down by the time he signed with the Pirates at age 40. Still, he appeared in nine games for the Pirates in 1981 and six for the Angel in 1982. He also prolonged his professional career by returning to the Mexican League in 1983, and later the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association in 1989.

Following his playing career, Tiant worked as a scout for the Yankees in Mexico before landing coaching jobs in the minor leagues with the Dodgers (1992-95) and White Sox (1997). He also served as the pitching coach for the Nicaraguan national team in the 1996 Summer Olympics and later worked as the head coach for the Savannah College of Art and Design baseball team (1998-2001). In 2002, he returned to the Red Sox organization, working as a minor league coach (2002), Spanish language broadcaster (2002-03), and special assignment instructor (2004-24).

Tiant is arguably one of the greatest players excluded from the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Over 15 years on the BBWAA ballot, he never received close to enough support to reach the 75% threshold necessary for election. He has since fallen short on several committee ballots. While he never won any major awards and only earned three All-Star selections throughout his career, modern statistics make it clear that Tiant was underappreciated in his time. With 66.1 career Baseball Reference WAR and 44.1 bWAR during his seven-year peak, he falls slightly below the 73.0 career bWAR and 44.9 peak bWAR of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher. However, his 55.1 JAWS is higher than that of more than 40 Hall of Fame pitchers. His 229 wins, 2416 strikeouts, and 66.1 career bWAR also rank first among all Cuban-born pitchers. Tiant could be up for Hall of Fame consideration again this winter on the Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, though it is important to keep his wishes in mind. Speaking to ESPN Deportes in 2008, he said, “If you don’t take me in life, don’t try to elect me after I die, please.”

Thankfully, Tiant’s phenomenal career did not go unrecognized in his retirement. He was inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame in 1997, the Hispanic Heritage Baseball Museum Hall of Fame in 2002, and the Venezuelan Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in 2009 (he spent seven seasons playing winter ball in the Venezuelan League during his major league career).

Known to fans as El Tiante, Luis Tiant will be remembered for his captivating windup, captivating performances, and equally captivating personality. His 49 shutouts are tied for 21st all-time, while his 2416 strikeouts are 48th-most in major league history. His sense of humor, however, was second to none; Red Sox teammate Dwight Evans claims Tiant could “turn a bus ride into something out of Saturday Night Live” (per Powers). We at MLB Trade Rumors send our heartfelt condolences to Tiant’s family, friends, and fans.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Division Series?

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Last night, MLBTR readers weighed in on the National League Division Series. With both series knotted up 1-1 at the time, readers heavily favored the Padres to upset the Dodgers while giving a slight edge to the Phillies to take down the Mets. The lower seeds each prevailed at home tonight to put the NL’s top two teams on the brink of elimination.

Tuesday was a travel day in the American League. Those series are also squared at a game apiece, providing an opportunity to check in on those sets. The Guardians destroyed the Tigers in Game 1, but Kerry Carpenter hit a game-winning homer in the ninth off Emmanuel Clase to give the Tigers a 3-0 win in the second game. The Royals rebounded after dropping a back-and-forth contest against the Yankees in Game 1. Kansas City rode a four-run fourth inning to a relatively easy 4-2 victory in Game 2.

Cleveland and Detroit will kick off play on Wednesday afternoon. The Guardians are turning to Alex Cobb in what will be just his fourth appearance in a Cleveland uniform. Cleveland landed Cobb from the Giants at the deadline to address a rotation that was the team’s biggest weakness. Cobb had spent the first few months of the season on the IL rehabbing last fall’s hip surgery. Blisters and a cracked fingernail on his throwing hand limited him to a trio of regular season appearances. Cobb pitched well in that brief action, allowing five earned runs with 10 strikeouts and three walks over 16 1/3 innings. This will be his first game in almost six weeks.

The Tigers haven’t announced a starter to oppose Cobb. Detroit has mostly ridden bullpen games behind ace Tarik Skubal and second starter Reese Olson. They’ll probably have Olson lined up for Game 4 with Skubal on tap if the series gets a decider. Tomorrow is likely to be an all hands on deck affair. Cleveland could go back to respective Games 1 and 2 starters Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd after tomorrow.

There’s a more conventional pitching matchup in Kansas City. The hosts will turn to Seth Lugo, who turned in an even 3.00 earned run average across 206 2/3 innings during his first season with the Royals. The potential Cy Young finalist tossed 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against Baltimore in the clincher of last week’s Wild Card series — the first postseason start of Lugo’s career. New York counters with Clarke Schmidt, who’ll be starting a playoff game for the first time himself. The former first-round pick had a 2.85 ERA over 16 starts in the regular season. He lost three months midseason to a lat strain but was excellent when healthy.

New York and Kansas City already list Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha as the respective probable starters for Game 4. Neither team has announced its pitcher for a potential Game 5. That’d likely be a rematch of Monday’s pitching matchup between K.C. ace Cole Ragans and Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodón with both pitchers on regular rest by Saturday.

Which teams will vie for the ALCS next week?

What Will Be The Result Of CLE/DET?
Tigers in 5. 35.72% (1,924 votes)
Guardians in 5. 31.19% (1,680 votes)
Tigers in 4. 19.48% (1,049 votes)
Guardians in 4. 13.61% (733 votes)
Total Votes: 5,386

 

What Will Be The Result Of NYY/KC?
Royals in 5. 31.14% (1,564 votes)
Yankees in 5. 29.19% (1,466 votes)
Yankees in 4. 21.74% (1,092 votes)
Royals in 4. 17.94% (901 votes)
Total Votes: 5,023

 

Reds’ Julian Aguiar Considering Tommy John Surgery

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9:19pm: Shelton issued a correction to his previous report (on X). Aguiar is considering undergoing Tommy John but has not yet undergone any procedure. He is getting a second opinion.

4:20pm: Reds right-hander Julian Aguiar recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2025 season, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com on X. Sheldon also relays that the club has fired three coaches: hitting coach Joel McKeithan as well as assistant hitting coaches Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte.

Aguiar, 23, was able to make his major league debut this year. As the Reds dealt with multiple rotation injuries, he was selected to the big league roster in August. He made seven starts, allowing 6.25 earned runs per nine innings, before landing on the 15-day injured list in September due to a right elbow sprain. It now seems that the determination was made in the past few weeks that he would require surgery. Lefty Brandon Williamson also required Tommy John surgery last month, so that’s two Cincinnati hurlers that are now slated to miss the upcoming season.

It’s an unfortunate blow for him and the team. Given that Tommy John rehabs generally take 14 months or longer, Aguiar will miss the entire 2025 campaign, depriving the club of pitching depth and costing him a year of development. Aguiar is currently listed as the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America while FanGraphs had him at #7 in April. Both outlets consider him a possible backend starter someday, but that will have to wait until 2026 at the earliest.

A 12th-round pick from 2021, Aguiar has climbed the ladder since then. In 2024, in addition to his major league debut, he tossed 116 1/3 innings on the farm between Double-A and Triple-A. In that time, he had a 3.79 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. If there’s one silver lining for Aguiar, it’s that he’ll collect major league pay and service time at least through the end of next year, assuming the Reds keep him on the roster through the winter.

Turning to the coaching staff, it was undoubtedly a disappointing year for the Cincinnati offense. The club had graduated a boatload of exciting position players in 2023 and the club had postseason aspirations going into 2024. But Cincinnati hitters put up a collective slash line of .231/.305/.388 in 2024. That production translated to a wRC+ of 87, putting them ahead of only the White Sox, Rockies, Pirates and Marlins.

It’s always tough to decipher whether credit/blame should be assigned to coaches or players but that’s especially true in this case as the Reds were missing many of their expected contributors for much of the year. Noelvi Marté received an 80-game PED suspension in March while players like Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and others spent significant time on the injured list.

Regardless, the club has decided a significant overhaul is needed and is moving on from three hitting coaches, who all joined going into 2023. McKeithan was a minor league hitting coach for the Phillies in 2019, despite being just 26 years old for much of that season. He also worked in the Tigers’ minor league system before getting hired by the Reds as an assistant hitting coach on the major league staff for the 2022 season. One year later, he was promoted to the top hitting coach job but is now out after two seasons in that job.

Bradshaw played in the majors in the ’90s but has been a coach for a number of years now. He was working in the Royals’ organization back in 2000 and got promoted to their big league hitting coach job in 2018. He was fired in 2022 and came to the Reds as an assistant to McKeithan. LaMonte was also hired as an assistant on McKeithan’s staff at that time after working for the Astros and Mets.

The Reds recently fired manager David Bell and hired Terry Francona to replace him. It’s not uncommon for coaching changes to accompany managerial changes, so Francona will seemingly be looking to shake things up on the hitting side of things at least.

Mark Melancon Joins San Diego State Coaching Staff

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San Diego State announced that longtime reliever Mark Melancon has joined the school’s baseball program as the pitching development coordinator.  Melancon hasn’t pitched since the 2022 season, so this new job implies that the 39-year-old has ended his playing career after 14 Major League seasons.

“It’s exciting to be part of a staff that has great experience and a clear vision on what needs to happen to be successful at the highest level.  I’m eager to help these players compete for a national championship and hopefully move on to the next level,” Melancon said.

Assuming that Melancon is indeed hanging up his glove, he’ll finish his career with 262 saves and an excellent 2.94 ERA, over 726 2/3 innings in the majors.  As opposed to most bullpen aces, Melancon didn’t bring heavy velocity or big strikeout numbers, instead relying on superb control and a knack for keeping the ball on the ground.  Melancon had a 55.3% groundball rate over his career, the seventh-highest grounder rate of any pitcher in baseball (minimum 700 innings) within the 2009-22 timeframe.

Selected by the Yankees in the ninth round of the 2006 draft, Melancon ended up pitching for nine different clubs at the MLB level after he made his debut in the Show in 2009.  The travels started early, as Melancon changed uniforms via three trades in as many years — from the Yankees to the Astros at the 2010 trade deadline, from Houston to Boston in December 2011, and then from Boston to Pittsburgh in December 2012.  Though Melancon had seemingly broken out with a nice 2011 season, the rebuilding Astros still dealt him, and he then struggled through a rough season with the Red Sox.

The move to Pittsburgh brought both some stability for Melancon, and set the stage for the best stretch of his career.  Melancon became a dominant set-up man and then closer over his three-plus seasons with the Pirates, delivering a sterling 1.80 ERA and 130 saves over 260 1/3 innings in a Bucs uniform.  The right-hander was named to three All-Star teams during this stretch, and finished eighth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2015 after posting a league-best 51 saves.

Free agency loomed for Melancon after the 2016 season, however, and the Pirates weren’t going to pay top dollar for a star closer.  The result was yet another trade, as Melancon was dealt to the Nationals at the 2016 trade deadline, and he continued to pitch well for Washington throughout the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs.

The big free agent payday then came that winter when Melancon inked a four-year, $62MM deal with the Giants, which briefly stood as the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  While Melancon had a respectable 3.67 ERA over 115 1/3 innings with San Francisco, it wasn’t the kind of elite performance that was expected from the hefty contract, and injuries also hampered Melancon’s effectiveness.

As the Giants entered a partial rebuild and looked to cut payroll, Melancon was moved to the Braves at the 2019 trade deadline, and had an uptick in results (2.78 ERA in 22 2/3 IP) during the shortened 2020 season.  A one-year, $3MM deal with the Padres followed that offseason, and Melancon enjoyed one final All-Star campaign by posting a 2.23 ERA and 39 saves for San Diego.  This led to a two-year, $14MM contract with the Diamondbacks in December 2021, but Melancon struggled in 2022 and then missed all of 2023 due to a shoulder strain.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Melancon on a terrific playing career, and we wish him the best as he moves into the collegiate coaching ranks.

Ben Casparius Replaces Michael Grove On Dodgers’ NLDS Roster

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The Dodgers and Major League Baseball both announced an injury-related substitution on Los Angeles’ NLDS roster.  Right-hander Michael Grove has been removed in favor of fellow righty Ben Casparius.  No specifics were given on Grove’s injury within the press release, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including David Vassegh of 570 AM Radio) that Grove is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Grove came out of the bullpen in Sunday’s Game 2, and he allowed a Xander Bogaerts solo homer before striking out Jake Cronenworth to end the top of the eighth inning.  These were Grove’s only two batters faced, and while the inning break seemed like the reason for his removal from the game, it could be that his shoulder problem necessitated another pitching change.  With the Dodgers down 7-1 after eight innings, a healthy Grove might’ve eaten one more inning of mop-up work.

Working as a starter, reliever, and swingman since his MLB debut in 2022, Grove has a 5.48 ERA over 149 1/3 career innings in the majors, including a 5.12 ERA in 51 frames in 2024.  His secondary numbers paints a somewhat more promising picture than his ERA, though Grove has hurt his cause by being a little homer-prone.  Injuries have also been a factor, as he has missed time in each of the two seasons with lat-related issues, as well as a groin strain that sidelined him for about six weeks of the 2023 campaign.  The Dodgers have also liberally moved Grove up and down between the majors and Triple-A, so he hasn’t had a ton of time to settle into a big league role.

League rules dictate that if a team makes an injury substitution on a series roster, the injured player is also ineligible for the following series.  Grove therefore isn’t able to play in the NLCS if the Dodgers advance past the Padres, though his health is the larger concern in general, given the ominous nature of shoulder-related discomfort.  Los Angeles has already had to navigate a ton of pitching injuries throughout the season and into October, so Grove’s absence leaves the club short another arm.

It does provide quite the opportunity for Casparius, who only just made his big league debut back on August 31.  A fifth-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2021 draft, Casparius has pitched in all of three MLB games, and he has a 2.16 ERA and an impressive 32.4% strikeout rate over 8 1/3 innings.  He also has a 10.8% walk rate, which tracks with the rather so-so control Casparius exhibited over four minor league seasons.  The Dodgers aren’t likely to use Casparius in any high-leverage situations during the NLDS, and it is possible he doesn’t see any action at all in the series barring another lopsided score.

In other notable injury news for L.A., Freddie Freeman is in tonight’s starting lineup for Game 3.  Freeman’s attempts to play through a severe left ankle sprain and bone bruise seemed to take a downturn when he made an early exit from Game 2, but Roberts told reporters (including Sportnet’s Hazel Mae) that Freeman completed his pregame preparations without issue.  “It’s a go as of now….unless I hear otherwise, he’s going to be in there,” Roberts said.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds hoped to make the jump from underdogs with an exciting young core to legitimate playoff contenders. It didn't happen this year. With a splash managerial hire and returns to health from most of the rotation, expectations will again be high going into 2025.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $47MM through 2028 (including buyout of '29 club option)
  • Jeimer Candelario, 3B: $30MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
  • Jonathan India, 2B: $7.05MM through 2025 (eligible for arbitration in '26)

Option Decisions

  • RHP Nick Martinez holds $12MM player option (no buyout)
  • RHP Emilio Pagán holds $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
  • Team, RHP Jakob Junis hold $8MM mutual option; Brewers are responsible for $1MM of the $3MM buyout
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($500K buyout)
  • Team holds $3.5MM option on C Luke Maile ($500K buyout)

2025 financial commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $39.05MM
Total future commitments (assuming Martinez opt-out and Pagán opts in): $95.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: France, Antone, Espinal, Fraley, Wynns, Gibaut

Free Agents

The Reds have begun their offseason with a bang. As the season wound down, Cincinnati dismissed sixth-year skipper David Bell. That wasn't especially surprising with the team en route to a 77-85 finish that represented a five-game drop relative to last season. Bell's replacement was a stunner. The Reds brought Terry Francona out of what proved to be a one-year retirement. Landing one of the sport's most respected managers should renew optimism going into 2025.

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MLB To Take Over Broadcasts For Twins, Guardians, Brewers In 2025

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Major League Baseball announced that it will take over the distribution of local broadcasts for the Twins, Guardians and Brewers in 2025. All three of those clubs previously had deals with Diamond Sports Group, which owns the Bally Sports Networks. But those deals all expired after 2024 and it was reported this week that Diamond is planning to make cutbacks to the number of teams on its slate of baseball broadcasts.

MLB will now be handling the broadcasts of at least six clubs, as it was already distributing for the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies. Fans will be able to sign up for direct-to-consumer streaming packages without blackouts, except for games that are being broadcasted nationally. The Rangers also saw their Diamond deal expire in 2024 but seem to be in a different situation for now. MLB announced that Texas wouldn’t be continuing with Diamond but are exploring local options for 2025.

The Regional Sports Network model has been decaying for many years and this news is latest part of the crumbling. For years, broadcasters would pay clubs for the right to have exclusive local broadcasting rights, which would often lead to frustration among fans. Baseball games were harder to access and some fans found themselves in the blackout areas of multiple different teams. However, these deals were a significant source of annual revenue for teams.

But as consumers cut cords and move away from buying cable packages, the model has been less effective and several deals have already fallen apart. Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process since early in 2023. As mentioned, the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies didn’t have a local broadcasting deal for 2024. The Padres and Diamondbacks had previously been with Diamond while the Rockies were with AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain. Fans in those markets were able to pay MLB directly to watch the team in 2024, with no blackouts, for $19.99 per month or $99.99 for the year. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays on X that the Twins will be charging a similar price next year.

While that was a nice development for many fans, it wasn’t good for the teams. By all accounts, the revenue generated from this model is lower than what the clubs were previously receiving from the cable model, as the latter led to a passive stream of revenue from fans who signed up for cable packages but didn’t watch much or any baseball. The direct-to-consumer model cuts out the middleman but is dependent on active fan interest.

The MLB announcement today says that the “reach” of the Guardians via RSN was 1.45 million homes, with the Twins at 1.08 million. The league relays that between four and five million homes will now have access to their local clubs via these streaming options, but not all of them will sign up and it’s unclear what sort of rates are to be expected. Twins president Dave St. Peter expects the club to receive less broadcast revenue in 2025, per Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic on X, though he added that he expects greater revenue in the future.

In short, the move is good for fans in terms of simply watching the games. But since it’s bad for the teams on the business side, it could have spillover effects into roster construction. Last offseason, declining broadcast revenue seemed to have significant ripple effects in terms of transactions. The Padres trading Juan Soto to the Yankees, for instance, seemed to be motivated by the Friars needing to make budget cuts. Teams like the Rangers, Twins and others either cut their payrolls or didn’t raise them as much as expected, which led to certain free agents having fewer suitors than anticipated and a weak market for free agents in general.

Whether this will have an immediate impact on the decisions of the Twins, Guardians and Brewers will remain to be seen. The Twins already cut their payroll significantly a year ago in the wake of uncertainty with Diamond. There was seemingly some chance of the deal collapsing before the Twins re-signed for another year but with reduced fees. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the payroll went from $154MM in 2023 to $127MM in 2024. Per recent reporting, the club isn’t planning further payroll cuts but it doesn’t appear as though an increase is coming either. Per Gleeman on X, St. Peter doesn’t think this news impacts the payroll relative to those recent reports as the club already knew this was coming.

The Rangers appear to be exploring a different path. Last month, it was reported by Tom Friend of the Sports Business Journal that the club is looking into developing their own direct-to-consumer streaming service, independent of MLB. Presumably, the benefit to handling it themselves would mean they reap more direct revenue, but they would also spend more on the day-to-day costs of running the operation. If they eventually find this path too challenging, it seems fair to assume that letting MLB take over would be a fallback option.

Uncertainty around the broadcast situation seemed to impact the Rangers last year. Though they won the 2023 World Series, they followed that up with a relatively modest offseason, not signing any deals larger than the two years and $22MM they gave to Tyler Mahle. How their current plan will play out perhaps has even less certainty than the other three clubs, so it will be an interesting situation to watch.

There will be other long-term questions to be answered in time. Commissioner Rob Manfred intends to market a streaming package consisting of multiple teams at some point in the future, perhaps as soon as 2025. MLB.TV has existed for years but with consumers affected by local blackout rules. The idea going forward would be to essentially make a blackout-free version of MLB.TV. There would be complications in such a plan, as clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and others handle their own games via broadcasters that are at least partially owned by the team. Given their relatively stable footing, they would have less interest in joining such a plan with the other clubs.

As for Diamond, they had deals with 12 clubs in 2024. It was recently revealed that they are only fully committed to one for 2025, which is Atlanta. As part of that reporting last week, Diamond was apparently willing to renegotiate with other clubs but wanted to pay reduced fees. It seems that won’t happen with the four clubs mentioned in today’s announcement, so the Diamond slate will be down to a maximum of eight clubs in 2025 but perhaps that will go even lower of some others decide to make a deal like this with MLB instead.

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