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Archives for 2024

Rockies Sign Bud Black To One-Year Extension

By Leo Morgenstern | October 8, 2024 at 1:04pm CDT

The Rockies have agreed to a one-year contract extension with manager Bud Black, the team announced. The deal will keep Black in Colorado for the 2025 season, which will be his ninth with the club. In additional Rockies news, the team also revealed that they have parted ways with bullpen coach Reid Cornelius and assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere.

Black is the winningest manager in Rockies history and the only manager to lead the team to consecutive postseason appearances (2017-18). However, both of those accomplishments come with an asterisk; the Rockies are 537-657 (.450) under Black’s leadership, and they have not reached the playoffs in seven years. The team’s failures certainly cannot be attributed to Black alone, but it is still unusual to see a manager stick around so long with so little success. Only four other managers have been with their current clubs at least as long as Black has been with the Rockies, and all four of them – Kevin Cash (Rays), Dave Roberts (Dodgers), Brian Snitker (Braves), and Torey Lovullo (Diamondbacks) – have had significantly more recent success than Black.

Nonetheless, the Rockies expressed confidence in Black, with general manager Bill Schmidt stating, “We believe this team is heading in the right direction” and praising his manager’s “skills, experience, and knowledge” in a recent press release. Considering those comments, one might think the Rockies would want to give Black a longer-term deal. After all, managers on expiring contracts are typically seen as lame ducks. In Black’s case, however, this is yet another one-year deal; he also signed single-year contracts entering 2022, ’23, and ’24. Reporter Nick Groke once described the skipper as being “on a rolling year-to-year contract.” It’s possible the unique contract situation is just as much for Black’s benefit as Colorado’s, giving him the chance to walk away after every season.

The Rockies finished the 2024 season 61-101, the worst record in the National League and the second-worst record in MLB. Some promising young players took big steps forward – namely Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar – but this team is still far off from being taken seriously as a contender. After so many losing seasons in a row, plenty of fans would surely love to see a shakeup in the dugout, but practically speaking, it’s hard to imagine a new manager would make much of a difference in 2025.

Before joining the Rockies ahead of the 2017 season, Black managed the Padres from 2007-15. He went 649-713 (.477), leading the team to just a pair of winning seasons in nine years. In the second of those winning seasons (2010), he was named NL manager of the year. Prior to his managerial career, Black was the pitching coach for the Angels from 2000-06, winning a World Series with the club in 2002.

Cornelius and Pilittere both joined the Rockies coaching staff ahead of the 2022 season. Following the conclusion of his playing career in 2000, Cornelius worked as a coach in the Marlins minor league system from 2003-09. In 2010, he took over as the bullpen coach for the big league club, a role he held until 2016. After a brief stint coaching in the Braves minor league system, he returned to the Marlins organization as a minor league pitching coach in 2019 and a major league rehab pitching coach in 2021.

Pilittere played in the Yankees minor league system from 2004-11 before taking on a minor league coaching role in 2012. In 2018, he was named the assistant hitting coach for the major league club. After four seasons, the Yankees let him go at the end of the 2021 campaign, and he signed on with the Rockies shortly thereafter.

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Colorado Rockies Transactions Bud Black

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | October 8, 2024 at 8:40am CDT

The Cubs enter 2025 with an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs for the first time under Jed Hoyer.  Cody Bellinger's decision will help determine Hoyer's path, but the club will be seeking help at catcher and in the rotation and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Dansby Swanson, SS: $132MM through 2029
  • Ian Happ, LF: $38MM through 2026
  • Seiya Suzuki, DH/RF: $36MM through 2026
  • Jameson Taillon, SP: $36MM through 2026
  • Nico Hoerner, 2B: $23.5MM through 2026
  • Shota Imanaga, SP: $13MM through 2025, then a $57MM three-year club option or $15MM player option

Option Decisions

  • Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/DH/1B: $27.5MM player option with a $2.5MM buyout.  Also has a $25MM player option for '26 with a $5MM buyout
  • Drew Smyly, RP: $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
  • Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
  • Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
  • Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
  • Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
  • Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
  • Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
  • Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
  • Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
  • Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
  • Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
  • Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
  • Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
  • Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Almonte, Bethancourt, Merryweather, Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Wingenter, Herget, Brewer

Free Agents

  • Kyle Hendricks, Jorge Lopez

The Cubs' splashy hiring of Craig Counsell last November had minimal impact this year, as the club posted the same 83-79 record it had under David Ross in 2023.  A 17-10 April record created some optimism, but the Cubs went 65-67 thereafter and were mostly out of the playoff race by July.  Let's take a look around the Cubs' roster and figure out how president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might go about creating a 90-win team for 2025, a particularly ripe opportunity with the Cardinals taking a rare step back.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Chicago Cubs Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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The Opener: NLDS, Machado, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | October 8, 2024 at 8:32am CDT

With all four Division Series tied at two, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. NLDS Game 3 today:

Both sets of NLDS matchups will have their third games today. The Phillies and Mets are set to suit up at Citi Field in New York at 5:08pm local time. The Dodgers and Padres will take the field at Petco Park in San Diego at 6:08pm local time. In Queens, lefty Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) will take the mound after a strong rebound campaign opposite right-hander Aaron Nola (3.57 ERA). The Dodgers will send former ace Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound amid a season where he’s struggled to return to form after nearly two calendar years on the shelf following his second career Tommy John surgery. The Padres will counter with offseason addition Michael King (2.95 ERA), who has excelled in his first year with the club.

2. MLB investigating dispute between Machado, Roberts:

Tonight’s NLDS game between the Dodgers and Padres comes with an additional layer of intrigue as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted that the Dodgers have asked the league to review an alleged incident between club manager Dave Roberts and third baseman Manny Machado, wherein Roberts believes Machado threw a baseball at him between innings during Game 2 of the series on Sunday. Per Roberts, the ball ultimately didn’t come close to hitting him thanks to netting around the dugout but was thrown with “intent behind it.”

Machado, meanwhile, told Rosenthal that his throw was no different from the way he’d throw a ball toward any dugout, but not before questioning whether Game 2 starter Jack Flaherty intentionally threw at Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. While it’s unclear if anything more will come of the situation following the league’s review of footage, the discourse following an already tense Game 2 that saw fans throw trash at Tatis and Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar seems likely to leave tensions high entering a pivotal Game 3 of a series currently tied at one game apiece.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the postseason now in full swing, 22 of MLB’s 30 teams have focused their attention on the coming winter while the rest of us have our eyes glued on playoff baseball. If you’re wondering about how the remaining contenders stack up with all four LDS tied 1 to 1 or how your club could approach the coming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 3pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

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The Opener

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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

By Mark Polishuk | October 7, 2024 at 10:47pm CDT

The Rangers never seemed to snap out of a World Series hangover, as the team stumbled to a 78-84 record one year after capturing its first championship.  Texas now has several holes to be filled on the pitching staff, and the lingering question of how much money is available for roster upgrades.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Corey Seager, SS: $218MM through 2031
  • Jacob deGrom, SP: $115MM through 2027 (club option for 2028 worth at least $20MM)
  • Marcus Semien, 2B: $98MMM through 2028
  • Tyler Mahle, SP: $16.5MM through 2025
  • Jon Gray, SP: $13MM through 2025
  • Adolis Garcia, OF: $9.25MM through 2025 (eligible for arbitration through '26)

Option Decisions

  • Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $20MM player option for 2025
  • David Robertson, RP: $7MM mutual option for 2025 ($1.5MM buyout)
  • Andrew Chafin, RP: $6.5MM club option for 2025 ($500K buyout)

2025 financial commitments: $136.75MM ($170.25MM if all options are exercised)
Total future commitments: $469.75MM ($503.25MM if all options are exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): $10.7MM
  • Jonah Heim (4.097): $4.8MM
  • Dane Dunning (4.078): $4.4MM
  • Josh Sborz (4.055): $1.3MM
  • Leody Taveras (3.124): $4.3MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Dunning, Sborz

Free Agents

  • Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, Travis Jankowski, Carson Kelly, Jose Urena

The first bit of the Rangers' offseason business was addressed in September, when Chris Young was signed to a new contract extension and promoted from GM to president of baseball operations.  Young's previous deal was up at the end of the 2024 season, and despite this year's struggles in Arlington, the Commissioner's Trophy from 2023 was surely enough for Young to earn some extra job security.

Now entering his third winter in charge of the Texas front office, Young faces another unique challenge.  The 2022-23 offseason was all about the Rangers trying to finally get back into contention, and Jacob deGrom's five-year, $185MM free agent deal added to the club's spending spree from the previous offseason under former PBO Jon Daniels.  Last offseason, with a championship now in tow, Young basically just stood pat, as the Rangers scaled back spending due to the big salary commitments already in place, and plenty of concern over the team's broadcasting revenues.

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2024-25 Offseason Outlook Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership Texas Rangers

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Poll: Who Will Win The NL Division Series?

By Anthony Franco | October 7, 2024 at 8:11pm CDT

Monday is a travel day for the National League. Both series are knotted up 1-1 as they head to the homes of the lower seeds. Nick Castellanos’ walk-off hit capped off a back-and-forth affair in Philadelphia yesterday, squaring things with the Mets. The Padres had a much more convincing (but still drama-filled) beatdown of the Dodgers to tie that series.

The latter has a couple health situations to monitor. Freddie Freeman and Xander Bogaerts each departed yesterday’s game. Bogaerts’ absence was on accounting of hamstring cramping and came after the Padres had taken a six-run lead. That seemed precautionary at the time, and skipper Mike Shildt said today that the team’s belief is that it was simply a result of dehydration (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Freeman has had a bigger problem, playing through a sprained right ankle. L.A. manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) this evening that Freeman was receiving treatment; his status for tomorrow’s game remains uncertain.

San Diego looks to have the distinctive edge from a pitching perspective for Game 3. They’ll turn to righty Michael King, owner of a 2.95 ERA in the regular season. Los Angeles counters with the scuffling Walker Buehler, who allowed more than five earned runs per nine this year after returning from his second career Tommy John surgery.

Neither team has named a starter for Game 4. Shildt kept open the possibility of turning back to Game 1 starter Dylan Cease on short rest on Wednesday (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). They’d presumably only do that if they lose tomorrow and are facing elimination in Game 4. Roberts has already shot down the possibility of bringing his Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, back on short rest. That very likely leaves L.A. to turn to rookie Landon Knack in the fourth game.

There’s more clarity on the pitching plans in the NL’s other series. The pair of NL East rivals have already named starters for both games that’ll take place in Queens. It’s a matchup between Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea tomorrow. They’ve both had good seasons, though Manaea was a bit better than Nola was down the stretch.

It’ll be a pair of southpaws on Wednesday. Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suárez, while the Mets counter with José Quintana. Quintana followed up a brilliant September with six scoreless innings to help keep the Mets alive in the rubber match of their Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Suárez has yet to pitch this postseason. He’s generally as good as any fourth starter in MLB. Suárez looked as if he’d even be in the Cy Young conversation early in the year, but he was hit hard in September after losing a month to a back injury. He finished the season with a 3.46 ERA through 150 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia will have Zack Wheeler in reserve if the series goes to a decider. New York is expected to counter in a potential Game 5 with Kodai Senga, who managed two innings on 31 pitches in his return from the 60-day injured list last week.

Which two teams will punch their ticket to the NLCS later this week?

What Will Be The Result Of LAD/SD?
Padres in 5. 39.05% (3,485 votes)
Padres in 4. 32.72% (2,920 votes)
Dodgers in 5. 23.80% (2,124 votes)
Dodgers in 4. 4.44% (396 votes)
Total Votes: 8,925

 

What Will Be The Result Of PHI/NYM?
Phillies in 5. 40.99% (3,239 votes)
Mets in 5. 27.08% (2,140 votes)
Mets in 4. 19.75% (1,561 votes)
Phillies in 4. 12.17% (962 votes)
Total Votes: 7,902

 

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres

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Latest On Giants’ General Manager Search

By Darragh McDonald | October 7, 2024 at 5:55pm CDT

The Giants are remaking their front office, looking to hire a new general manager and maybe other executives as well. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported some of the latest details today. Notably, the club has asked the Athletics to speak to assistant general manager Billy Owens. Other candidates include Jeremy Shelley, who is already with the Giants as an assistant GM, and old friend Bobby Evans. However, Slusser adds that the club is planning to do a thorough search that could take weeks, which perhaps suggests the list of possible candidates will include many people not specifically named here.

For most baseball clubs these days, the general manager is the second spot on the decision-making pyramid, with the title of president of baseball operations usually going to the top dog. That will be the case for the Giants but perhaps this GM job will be a bit more important than others around the league.

Buster Posey was just given the POBO title and will be the club’s chief decision maker, but he has come to the gig via an unusual path. Many presidents get their jobs after years working for clubs either in scouting or analytics, climbing the ladder over time. Posey was on the field as a player just three years ago, retiring after 2021. He later joined the club’s ownership group, purchasing a minority share in September of 2022, getting a seat on the board of directors.

It seems Posey was fairly active in that role. Back in January, Taylor Wirth of NBC Sports Bay Area relayed that Posey and righty Logan Webb were working together to recruit free agents to San Francisco. Last month, it was reported by Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic that Posey has taken a leading role in the Matt Chapman extension negotiations even though Farhan Zaidi was still the POBO at that time. Posey was given Zaidi’s job shortly thereafter and the club decided to reassign GM Pete Putila and give that title to someone else to assist Posey.

Despite Posey clearly taking a hands-on role as a partial owner, his unusual track record and quick ascent could mean that he might need a GM who has lots of experience with the day-to-day nitty-gritty of running a baseball team.

Evans certainly qualifies, as fans of the Giants are well aware. He was hired by the Giants in 1994 as a minor league administrative assistant and worked his way through various other titles, including director of minor league operations in 1998, director of player personnel in 2005, vice president of baseball operations in 2009 and general manager in 2015. The Giants had plenty of success in that time, winning titles in the even-numbered years from 2010 to 2014, but their results declined in the seasons to come and Evans was fired after the 2018 campaign as the club pivoted to Zaidi.

Since that time, Evans has emerged as a candidate for other front office jobs but hasn’t landed a gig. He interviewed for the Astros in 2020, though that GM job ultimately went to James Click. Evans also interviewed for the Angels’ GM position prior to 2021, a position that went to Perry Minasian. When the Astros surprisingly moved on from Click after winning the 2022 World Series, Evans got another interview but Dana Brown ultimately secured that spot. Per Slusser, Evans has been working for various nonprofit organizations since his time with the Giants.

Though he has been in the wilderness for a few years, perhaps Posey will bring him back to San Francisco. It’s unclear if he’s being considered for the GM spot or some other advisory role. Either way, he and Posey are presumably plenty familiar with each other from their overlapping time with the club, as Posey was drafted in 2008 and made it to the big leagues for the Giants by 2009. The fact that Evans is now a candidate to work with Posey again, though in different circumstances, suggests the two had a good relationship during that previous era.

It may be a similar situation with Shelley. Per his bio at MLB.com, he has been working with the Giants for over 30 years now, so his time with the club also overlaps with Posey’s time as a player but also as partial owner/board member. Shelley started as a baseball operations intern in 1994 before moving up to administrative assistant in the baseball operations department in 1996. He then became director of baseball operations in 2006, senior director of baseball operations/pro scouting in 2009 and vice president, pro scouting and player evaluation in 2013.

It would be a different situation with Owens, who has been working for the A’s for over 20 years now. Per an MLB.com profile by Bill Ladson published last year, Owens started with the A’s in 1999 as a minor league hitting instructor. He later became a scout and then a scouting coordinator. By 2010, he was named director of player personnel and he got the assistant GM title five years after.

This isn’t the first time his name has emerged for a job away from the A’s. Like Evans, he was a candidate for the Angels’ GM gig that went to Minasian in late 2020. That same offseason, he was considered for a GM role by the Mets, but Jared Porter got that spot at that time.

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Athletics San Francisco Giants Billy Owens Bobby Evans Jeremy Shelley

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Craig Breslow, Sam Kennedy Discuss Red Sox’ Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | October 7, 2024 at 4:08pm CDT

The Red Sox flirted with playoff contention at times in 2024 but ultimately fell short, finishing five games back of a Wild Card spot at 81-81. That puts their focus on the offseason and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe published a column today, trying to read the tea leaves on some recent comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow as well as president and CEO Sam Kennedy.

Notably, the comments suggest the club plans to enter the winter with more of a win-now mentality. “It’s time to take that next step. It really is time,” said Kennedy. “You really need to build a roster and have a team that is built to win that division. That’s where we want to get to. We just have to go and do the right things that put us in that position to push towards 90-95 wins.” Kennedy has also stated that the club feels they have “building blocks” in place that they can construct a club around.

Of course, many fans will be quick to point to chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments from a year ago as a reason to be skeptical, since the club didn’t really follow through on that promise. Generally speaking, the Sox had a relatively future-focused offseason going into 2024, with the most notable move being the trade that sent Chris Sale to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom. That deal has gone very poorly so far for the Sox, as Sale went on to have an excellent season for his new club while Grissom struggled immensely after that deal.

But as Speier points out, most of the comments made by the Boston brass around this time a year ago were far more measured, with the “full throttle” quote being the exception that received the most attention. Breslow has recently suggested that a deal like the Sale-Grissom swap will get less consideration this offseason.

“That was a decision that was made with a longer-term focus in mind as much as 2024,” said Breslow on NESN’s 310 to Left podcast, as relayed by Speier. “Exclusively looking at the future is not something that we should be prepared to do as we embark on this offseason heading into 2025. Otherwise, fans would be rightfully frustrated with this continued push-off into the future of the window of contention. We can no longer ask our fans to look to the future, to think about a Red Sox team that’s capable of winning the division and capable of making a deep postseason run. We have to talk to decisive actions that we’re taking right now to put a better team on the field in 2025.”

Breslow echoed Kennedy’s comments that the club is setting a high target for next year. “It’s time to deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” said Breslow. “If that means that guys who haven’t yet made their big-league debut need to be on the team to help us do that, then we have to be prepared for that. And if it means we have to be aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization to complement those who are, we have to be open to doing that as well.”

If the Red Sox are planning to be more aggressive, that could come in many forms. One of them would be financially, as the club could decide to return to being a top spender. Per the calculations of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox had one of the top five payrolls in the league from 2004 to 2020, including being first overall a few times, but they have dipped since. They were eighth in 2021, sixth the year after that and then 12th in the two most recent seasons.

Per RosterResource, the Sox have about $105MM committed to the 2025 roster, well shy of this year’s $183MM. That doesn’t include the club’s arbitration-eligible players, but they have a fairly modest class this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects salaries just under $5MM for Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Jarren Duran, the entirety of the club’s arb group. Even if Boston were only to carry the same payroll forward from 2024 to 2025, they would have a lot of powder dry, while they would naturally have even more to work with if they decide to push payroll up.

Another possibility would be to be active on the trade front, with Breslow acknowledging that they might have to make some tough decisions about which players stay and which ones go. “There are going to be a lot of really good major league players who aren’t going to realize their value in Red Sox uniforms because only one guy can do that at a time at second base or shortstop or center field,” said Breslow.

The Sox have promoted a number of young prospects to the big leagues in recent years, with those players having varying degrees of major league success. Duran had a huge step forward defensively this year, which made him a hugely valuable piece when combined with his offense and baserunning. He’s only just reaching arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and can be retained for four more seasons. Triston Casas has a great combination of power and on-base ability, with four years of club control beyond this one. Connor Wong and Wilyer Abreu also had some encouraging results in 2024 and will still be pre-arb in 2025.

On top of those players, the Sox also have long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida. They could pick up a cheap 2025 option on Rob Refsnyder for $2.1MM. There’s also the club’s emerging group of position player prospects. Catcher Kyle Teel, infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell, shortstop Marcelo Mayer and outfielder Roman Anthony are all considered top 100 guys and each has now reached the Triple-A level, so they will be pushing for major league jobs next year. (Mayer technically hasn’t played in a Triple-A game yet as he landed on the injured list shortly after being promoted to that level.)

With Danny Jansen heading to free agency, there could be an easy path for Teel to eventually share time behind the plate with Wong. If Mayer eventually takes over the club’s shortstop job, Story could perhaps move to second, squeezing out other guys on the roster. Rafaela has played both the middle infield and the outfield, but Boston’s options on the grass already include Duran, Abreu and Refsnyder with Anthony on the way. Campbell, like Rafaela, can play both the middle infield and the outfield and will be a factor somewhere at some point.

As Breslow suggested, the club likely can’t find jobs for everyone here, which will naturally lead to some interesting trade discussions this winter. With all these players and only so many spots, perhaps Breslow could acquire some pitching from another club. Boston had a collective 4.05 earned run average in 2024, 16th among the 30 major league clubs. They are now slated to lose Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Between the trade market and the club’s financial situation, Breslow should have all kinds of options to consider this winter as he tries to push the Sox forward in a crowded American League East for 2025. The Yankees and Orioles just wrapped up strong seasons. The Rays and Blue Jays disappointed in 2024 but have been in good form in prior years and will be looking to bounce back in 2025.

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Boston Red Sox

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What Will The Orioles Outfield Look Like In 2025?

By Leo Morgenstern | October 7, 2024 at 2:00pm CDT

The Orioles ran out the same three outfielders each Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in each year from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays were Baltimore’s three primary outfielders. This past season, however, Colton Cowser broke out with a phenomenal rookie campaign, cementing his position in the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come. Facing a logjam in the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline, officially splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander could be next to leave; after the conclusion of the World Series, he will become a free agent. Thus, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles’ outfield could look quite different on Opening Day 2025.

There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.

Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons  (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.

As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.

Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.

Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).

Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.

Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Baltimore Orioles Anthony Santander Cedric Mullins Coby Mayo Dylan Beavers Enrique Bradfield Heston Kjerstad Ryan O'Hearn

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Angel Martínez Replaces Tyler Freeman On Guardians Postseason Roster

By Leo Morgenstern | October 7, 2024 at 11:48am CDT

The Guardians announced a roster move ahead of Game 2 of the ALDS this afternoon: Angel Martínez will sub in for Tyler Freeman, who has been removed from the roster after suffering a left oblique strain. According to Mandy Bell of MLB.com, Freeman hurt his oblique while playing in a simulated game. Major League Baseball has already approved the substitution.

Freeman, 25, appeared in 118 games for the Guardians this season. A converted infielder, her saw most of his playing time in center field but also took reps at second base, third base, shortstop, and DH. In addition, he was a regular pinch-hitter and pinch-runner for manager Stephen Vogt. While he wasn’t particularly productive in any aspect of the game, his speed, contact skills, and defensive versatility helped him earn playing time throughout the year. However, he did not appear in Game 1 of the ALDS, and he is now ineligible to return until the World Series, should Cleveland advance that far.

Martínez, 22, made his big league debut in June but struggled to stick on the Guardians’ roster. However, he hit well in 55 games at Triple-A this year, producing an .812 OPS and 111 wRC+. Indeed, he was so red-hot at Triple-A to start September (182 wRC+ in 10 games) that he bumped Freeman off the active roster. Unfortunately for Martínez, he just could not find the same success against MLB pitching, going 9-for-41 (.220) with a .517 OPS and a 51 wRC+ over 12 games after his latest promotion. That likely explains why the Guardians went back to Freeman in favor of Martínez on the ALDS roster in the first place. With Freeman on the shelf, Cleveland will turn back to Martínez to fill the role of the athletic backup outfielder/pinch-runner/utility man off the bench.

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions Angel Martinez Tyler Freeman

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast

By Darragh McDonald | October 7, 2024 at 9:55am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 postseason is well underway, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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