Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Phillies Had Reached Out To David Robertson Before Alvarado Suspension

By | at

The Phillies bullpen took a huge hit over the weekend, as José Alvarado was hit with an 80-game suspension after a failed performance-enhancing drug test. Players suspended for PEDs are barred from participating in the postseason that year. Alvarado should return to the Phils bullpen in early August, but he will not be a factor in October.

Relief pitching stood out as a clear target for the Phils even before they lost their closer. To that end, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Philadelphia reached out to free agent reliever David Robertson prior to the announcement about Alvarado’s suspension. Robertson remains unsigned, of course, and Feinsand writes that initial talks with Philadelphia never seriously developed.

Perhaps the Phillies will look to reengage with the All-Star righty now that circumstances have changed. Robertson, who turned 40 in April, has not provided any indication that he’s retiring. At the same time, he clearly wasn’t motivated to take what he considered below-market money to sign. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last month that Robertson had sought a $10MM contract during the offseason. That’s not an outlandish number for one season of a high-end setup man.

Robertson pitched for Philly in 2019 and ’22, combining for a 3.30 ERA over those separate stints. He remained a key high-leverage arm with the Rangers last year. He reeled off a career-high 72 innings with an even 3.00 earned run average. Robertson punched out more than a third of opponents while averaging 93.3 MPH on the cutter that has long served as his primary offering. While there’s always a risk that a player’s production will drop off sharply in his late 30s or early 40s, Robertson didn’t show any obvious signs of decline a year ago.

That makes it fairly surprising that he wasn’t able to find a deal to his liking early in the offseason. It’s far more difficult to see him commanding a significant salary on a midseason contract, as teams tend to be up against their imposed budgets (at least until closer to the trade deadline). Alvarado is not paid during his suspension, so he’ll lose nearly $4MM of his $9MM salary. That could theoretically open spending room for the Phils, but Alvarado will return to the payroll for the final two months of the season and it’s unclear whether Robertson is willing to budge at all on his asking price.

The trade deadline is a little more than two months off. The Phils made one of the biggest reliever moves at last summer’s deadline, acquiring rental closer Carlos Estévez from the Angels for a pair of pitching prospects. They might be similarly aggressive this July. They’ll have a tough time pulling off a significant trade within the next few weeks, though.

The Cardinals have long been expected to move Ryan Helsley this summer, but they’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past month and are within a game of the NL Central lead. The Nationals will probably deal Kyle Finnegan at some point, though it seems unlikely that’ll happen two months into the season. The reeling Orioles have a couple arms (e.g. Félix Bautista, Keegan Akin) who’d generate interest if they’re willing to listen on players who are controllable beyond this year. Feinsand highlights a few speculative trade candidates on the handful of truly rebuilding teams, but those clubs (Rockies, White Sox, Marlins, Pirates) rank near the bottom of the league in bullpen effectiveness.

For now, Jordan Romano is expected to return to the closing role in Philadelphia. The offseason signee has kept opponents off the board in each of his past eight outings. He hasn’t allowed a hit in any of four most recent appearances. Romano’s season numbers are weighed down by a horrendous start, but he’s been dominant since the calendar turned to May. Matt Strahm is an excellent setup option from the left side. They’re light on right-handed options to bridge the gap to Romano, as Orion Kerkering remains inconsistent because of scattershot command.

Astros To Select Brandon Walter

By | at

Left-hander Brandon Walter will start for the Astros tomorrow against Tampa Bay, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). The Astros will need to add him to the 40-man roster. They can move Hayden Wesneski, who is ticketed for Tommy John surgery, to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man spot. They’ll also need to make a corresponding active roster move involving a pitcher.

Walter signed a minor league contract with the Astros last August. It was apparently a two-year deal, as the southpaw spent last season on the injured list rehabbing a rotator cuff injury. Walter made his return to the mound during Spring Training, allowing four runs through seven innings.

He’s been working in a swing role at Triple-A Sugar Land, where he has started five of nine appearances. Walter owns a 2.27 ERA across 35 2/3 innings, backing that up with strong underlying marks. He’s getting grounders at a huge 60% rate, striking out upwards of a quarter of opponents, and has kept his walk rate to a minuscule 5.2% clip.

It has been a nice rebound effort for the 28-year-old lefty. Walter went from an unheralded 26th-round draft choice to one of the better pitching prospects in the Red Sox’s system a couple years ago. He was hit hard in his nine MLB appearances with the Sox, allowing a 6.26 ERA over 23 innings two seasons back. He owns a 4.19 ERA across parts of three Triple-A seasons. Walter isn’t going to overpower many hitters, as his four-seam and sinker each average 91 MPH. His five-pitch mix is headlined by his upper-70s sweeping slider.

Walter still has an option remaining, so the Astros can send him back to Sugar Land without putting him on waivers. For now, he joins rookie Ryan Gusto as swing options. Colton Gordon has taken Wesneski’s rotation spot, rounding out the starting five behind Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco and Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros haven’t had an off day since May 8 and won’t be off until next Monday. They’ll likely use Walter and Gusto in some kind of tandem outing tomorrow to reduce the workload on the rest of the staff.

Alan Trejo Elects Free Agency

By and | at

The Rockies sent infielder Alan Trejo outright to Triple-A Albuquerque but he has exercised his right to elect free agency, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That indicates he cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week. The log also indicates that infielder Owen Miller was outrighted after last week’s DFA. He also has the right to free agency, but there’s no indication he has done so.

Trejo, 29 this month, got a brief run on Colorado’s roster. The Rockies acquired him from the Rangers in a cash deal at the end of April. He was sent to the plate 43 times but produced a dismal line of .175/.190/.225.

That’s an extreme low in a small sample but it continues his glove-first trajectory. He now has a .224/.269/.325 batting line and 49 wRC+ in 512 big league plate appearances. He has played the three infield positions to the left of first base, with at least 183 innings at each of those spots. His work at shortstop has been subpar but passable, while he’s been above average at both second and third base.

The Rockies acquired Trejo and selected Miller to fill in during a time when infielders Ezequiel Tovar, Tyler Freeman and Aaron Schunk were all on the IL, though all three were reinstated last week. Trejo and Miller are both out of options, leaving the Rockies little choice but to cut them from the 40-man entirely. As players with previous career outrights, they have the right to reject further outright assignments in favor of free agency.

Trejo’s entire big league career has been with the Rockies, though he has signed minor league deals with the Dodgers and Rangers. Perhaps he and the Rockies will reunite on a fresh minor league deal in the coming days but he will have the chance to talk to the other 29 clubs as well.

Miller was acquired from Milwaukee in a minor trade over the offseason. Colorado called him up despite a modest .244/.322/.372 slash line in Triple-A. He didn’t play much in the big leagues, going 2-14 while starting four games at second base. Assuming he doesn’t elect free agency, he’ll remain in the system as non-roster infield depth.

Photo courtesy of Eakin Howard, Imagn Images

Padres’ Oscar Gonzalez Granted Release To Pursue Opportunity In NPB

By | at

7:50pm: Gonzalez has an agreement with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, reports Francys Romero.

3:44pm: The Padres have placed outfielder Oscar Gonzalez on unconditional release waivers in order to allow him to pursue an opportunity in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic. With Gonzalez being granted his release, San Diego is down to 37 players on its 40-man roster.

Gonzalez, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Friars back in November. He’s appeared in 21 big league games and tallied 61 plate appearances while hitting .220/.246/.237. The Dominican-born slugger showed promise during his 2022 rookie campaign with the Guardians, bursting onto the scene with a .296/.327/.461 batting line and 11 homers in 382 plate appearances, but he’s hit just .216/.241/.293 in 241 MLB plate appearances since that time.

Gonzalez posted league-average offense with the Guards’ Triple-A club in 2023 and was a slight bit better than average in the Yankees’ system last year, but he’s been on a blistering tear in El Paso this season. It’s only 57 plate appearances, but the righty-swinging corner outfielder touts a .333/.368/.704 line with the Chihuahuas. The Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter-friendly, but he’s still been 54% better than average in that time and now touts a career .285/.321/.502 output in 1212 Triple-A plate appearances spread across parts of five seasons.

The Padres have had some of the worst production in baseball out of left field in 2025, hitting just .190/.236/.268 as a whole from that position. The resulting 44 wRC+ (indicating they’ve been 56% worse than average at the plate) ranks 28th in MLB. The bulk of Gonzalez’s plate appearances — 42 of the 61 — came as a left fielder. He’s combined with Jason Heyward, Brandon Lockridge, Tirso Ornelas, Gavin Sheets, Jose Iglesias and Connor Joe to compile that floundering left field line at the plate.

As it stands, left field seems likely to be an area of focus for the Padres when the deadline rolls around. The 27-18 Padres, sitting just one game behind the Dodgers in the NL West, look like surefire buyers. The farm system doesn’t have much in the way of immediate help to offer. Most of the outfielders in Triple-A are journeymen types who aren’t on the 40-man roster. Names like Tim Locastro, Forrest Wall, Mike Brosseau and Bryce Johnson have all logged time there with El Paso.

Twenty-six-year-old Yonathan Perlaza, a former Cubs farmhand who signed a minor league deal with the Padres after a nice performance in the KBO last year, is hitting .293/.335/.463 — but that’s about 8% worse than average in the PCL’s supercharged offensive atmosphere and he’s fanned in 28% of his plate appearances. It’s a dire situation, so any of those Triple-A names could get a look at some point — particularly with three vacancies on the 40-man roster. In general, the Padres’ system is lacking in impact outfielders after years of aggressive dealing on the trade market.

Poll: How Effective Has The Prospect Promotion Incentive Been?

By | at

The Prospect Promotion Incentive was instituted as part of the latest collective bargaining agreement prior to the 2022 season. As the name implies, it’s designed to incentivize teams to more quickly promote their top prospects to the majors and avoid service time manipulation to gain a seventh year of team control over a given player. If an eligible player wins the Rookie of the Year award or is a finalist for either the MVP or Cy Young award before he reaches arbitration eligibility, then his team will be awarded a pick immediately after the first round of the following year’s draft.

Over the first three years of the incentive’s existence, four players have earned a PPI pick for their team: Julio Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, and Corbin Carroll all did so by winning their league’s Rookie of the Year award, while Bobby Witt Jr. did so last year by finishing second in AL MVP voting. That’s more than one player per year bringing in an extra pick for their team, and that collection of some of the league’s brightest young stars would have otherwise been prime candidates for service time manipulation; all were viewed as among the game’s best prospects, and all except Carroll had not yet signed an extension with their club although both Witt and Rodriguez would do so later on. The Mariners, in particular, had a history of manipulating service time with their best prospects including a controversy surrounding their handling of then-top prospect Jarred Kelenic.

In the cases of Rodriguez, Henderson, and Witt, the club in question evidently felt that the combination of a potential PPI pick and a full season of their top prospect in the majors was the better choice to pursue than the possibility of a seventh year of team control. The fact that players who finish in the top-two of Rookie of the Year voting are awarded a full year of service time even if they have not yet reached 172 days naturally surely factors into that calculation as well; the Pirates held star right-hander Paul Skenes back from their Opening Day roster and ended up with the worst of both worlds when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year. Not only did they not receive a PPI pick for Skenes’s win after he wasn’t included on their roster to begin the year, but his win cost them that extra year of team control gained by holding him back in until May anyway. 2015 NL Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant surely would’ve appreciated the opportunity to get that same bump in service time and move his free agency up to the 2020-21 offseason.

Not all instances of the PPI’s influence are quite this cut-and-dry, however. One recent trend regarding PPI-eligible prospects has been for clubs to put potential Rookie of the Year candidates on their Opening Day roster (or promote them early enough in the season so that they retain PPI eligibility) before giving them a short run in the majors and optioning them to the minor leagues if they don’t excel. The Cubs recently did exactly this with top infield prospect Matt Shaw, who was promoted back today after making the Opening Day roster, struggling in 18 games, and then spending a month at Triple-A. The Orioles have used this tactic when handling the promotions of Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday, as well.

Exactly how much those demotions had to do with service time and how much they had to do with performance can be debated, but it’s a method that allows a team to essentially hedge their bets by only extracting that extra year of team control once the PPI-eligible player has struggled enough in the majors to make a top-two finish in Rookie of the Year voting extremely unlikely. Aside from those cases, there are also some teams that seem completely undeterred from holding down their top prospects by the PPI. The aforementioned Pirates fall into this group even after the debacle with Skenes last year, as they’ve shown no inclination towards promoting top pitching prospect Bubba Chandler despite his dominance at Triple-A and the club’s struggles at the big league level.

How do MLBTR readers view the incentive? Has it been a success because it’s allowed players like Skenes to earn a full year of service while getting players like Henderson the opportunity to break camp with the big league team on Opening Day of their rookie seasons? Or is the fact that players like Chandler are still being held down in the minors while players like Shaw and Holliday have been sent back to Triple-A once they’re no longer good bets to bring in a PPI evidence enough that the system is ineffective? Have your say in the poll below:

Tigers Place Reese Olson On Injured List

By | at

The Tigers placed Reese Olson on the 15-day injured list due to right ring finger inflammation, as first reported by Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. Reliever Chase Lee was recalled from Triple-A Toledo in a corresponding active roster move.

Detroit will temporarily operate with a nine-man relief group and four starters. McCosky adds that they’ll push Jack Flaherty’s start back to what would have been Olson’s turn on Thursday against the Guardians while deploying a bullpen game on Wednesday in St. Louis. The Tigers are three games into a nearly two-week stretch without an off day, so there aren’t upcoming opportunities for their starters to work on regular rest in a four-man rotation.

Olson’s injury comes as a surprise. He looked sharp as ever during Saturday’s start in Toronto, firing six scoreless innings in an eventual 2-1 loss. He sat north of 95 MPH with both his four-seam fastball and sinker, slightly above his season average. It’s not clear if the soreness arose during that start or in the past two days, but it’s evidently enough to shelve him for at least two weeks.

The 25-year-old Olson has somewhat quietly emerged as one of the better young pitchers in the sport. He owns a 3.60 ERA over parts of three seasons and is out to a career-best start. Olson carries a 2.96 earned run average across 48 2/3 innings. He’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents while getting grounders on half the batted balls he allows. Olson has reeled off four scoreless appearances through his first nine starts. He could be in the mix for his first career All-Star selection if this injury proves minor.

At 31-16, the Tigers have MLB’s best record. Olson, Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize each carry sub-3.00 ERAs, helping Detroit to a 3.39 rotation earned run average that ranks fifth in the majors. Mize went down with a hamstring strain a couple weeks ago, while they’ve been without Alex Cobb all season due to a right hip issue. Skubal, Flaherty, Jackson Jobe and Keider Montero comprise A.J. Hinch’s current four-man starting staff. McCosky writes that Mize could be activated from the IL by the weekend.

White Sox, Adrian Houser Nearing Deal

By | at

The White Sox are nearing an agreement with free agent righty Adrian Houser, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s not clear if he’ll jump right onto the big league roster or head to Triple-A Charlotte. Houser, a client of BBI Sports Group, was granted his release from a minor league contract with Texas last week.

Houser signed with the Rangers during the offseason. He has worked out of the rotation at Triple-A Round Rock, tallying 39 1/3 innings across nine appearances. While his 5.03 earned run average is pedestrian, that’s not all that uncommon in the Pacific Coast League. Houser has stronger peripherals. He struck out a decent 22.8% of opponents while running an excellent 57.3% grounder rate.

Ground balls are Houser’s speciality. He has gotten grounders at a near-52% clip over parts of eight seasons in the majors. That was up in the 58-59% range during his best seasons with Milwaukee but has been down to a more normal 46-48% mark over the past few years. That caught up to him last year, as he allowed 5.84 earned runs per nine across 69 1/3 frames with the Mets. Houser had begun the season in New York’s rotation but was kicked to the bullpen after seven starts. His results in relief were much better. He carried an ERA north of 8.00 as a starting pitcher but turned in a 3.28 mark across 35 2/3 relief innings.

Texas signed him as rotation depth, which seems likely to be his role in Chicago (assuming the deal is finalized). The rebuilding White Sox have baseball’s least experienced rotation. Bryse Wilson is the only member of the current starting staff who entered the season with even one year of MLB service. Wilson, who had begun the year in the bullpen, stepped into the starting five after Martín Pérez suffered a forearm injury. He has allowed a 6.62 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts over four starts.

Rule 5 pick Shane Smith has been the team’s best pitcher, turning in a sterling 2.05 ERA with average strikeout and walk numbers over his first nine MLB starts. Davis Martin and Jonathan Cannon have each been a little worse than average. Opening Day starter Sean Burke has struggled, though he’d been better this month until giving up six runs to the Cubs on Saturday. If Houser jumps right onto the MLB roster, he could nudge Burke or Wilson from the rotation. Burke still has a full slate of minor league options. Wilson is out of options and would need to be designated for assignment for the Sox to take him off the big league roster.

Giants Designate David Villar For Assignment

By | at

The Giants have reinstated infielder Casey Schmitt from the 10-day injured list. As a corresponding move, fellow infielder David Villar has been designated for assignment. The club’s 40-man roster count drops from 39 to 38. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to pass along the transaction.

It’s the second DFA of the year for Villar. The first one came just prior to Opening Day. He came into the year out of options and without a firm hold on a roster spot. That got him bumped onto the waiver wire, but he passed through unclaimed and stuck in the Giants’ organization. About three weeks into the season, he was called back up when Schmitt landed on the IL with an oblique strain.

Villar hasn’t gotten much playing time since returning to the big leagues. In the one month since his contract was selected, he received just 26 plate appearances over nine games. He put up a .200/.360/.250 line in that time.

Now that Schmitt is back, Villar is likely destined for the waiver wire once again. He has shown some pop at the plate at times but has often been a strikeout victim, which likely led to him clearing waivers a couple of months ago. He has hit 15 home runs in 383 career big league plate appearances but has gone down on strikes at a 31.6% clip.

Given that he cleared waivers last time, there’s a decent chance he will do so again. If that comes to pass, he would be able to elect free agency this time around, as players with a previous career outright have that right.

It’s also possible that some team that passed on him last time will take a flier on him now, perhaps due to injuries changing their roster outlook. Villar has played the three non-shortstop infield positions, meaning he can provide a bit of defensive versatility.

He has shown some home run power in the majors, as mentioned, and has tremendous minor league numbers. He has taken 1,248 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level since the start of 2022. His 25.6% strikeout rate in that time is still a bit high but far more tolerable than his big league rate. He’s also drawn walks at a 13.4% clip and hit 61 home runs, helping him produce a .273/.381/.507 line and 130 wRC+.

Photo courtesy of D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images

Bo Bichette’s Earning Power Spectrum

By | at

Last month, MLB Trade Rumors published an early Power Rankings looking ahead to the upcoming free agent class. Kyle Tucker was an obvious choice for the top spot and Dylan Cease ended up pretty comfortably in second. The next few entrants were tougher to separate, but Bo Bichette ended up third.

Bichette’s free agency was and is tough to peg. He has a strong track record of success, but his 2024 season was awful. His bat has been strong on the whole, though with a swing-happy profile that lacks walks. His defense has been passable enough to stick at short, but he’s not great there.

Of the potential top free agents this coming winter, he seemingly has some of the widest error bars. This post will take a look at the spectrum, using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker as a guide.

As you can see in that screenshot (link for app users), I’ve used the dropdown bars to search for free agent deals for shortstops over the past five years. I’ve then ranked them by the total guarantee on the contract. There are some pretty clear tiers in earning power, so let’s see where Bichette could fit in.

From 2019 through 2023, his production was quite consistent. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 games in his debut season but then his wRC+ finished in the 120 to 130 range in each of the next four seasons. His home run total in the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His walk rate was on the low side in each of those campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, but he also struck out less than average and ran batting averages near .300.

The defensive reviews have been mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his whole career, though a big chunk of that is a -16 in 2022 alone, which looks like a clear outlier. Apart from that, he’s generally been near average, give or take a few runs on either side. Outs Above Average, however, doesn’t like his glovework at all. Bichette has -22 OAA for his career and has been below average in almost every season. The only campaigns in which he’s finished with a positive OAA were the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign.

Still, the bat was enough to produce plenty of value. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above replacement in each season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.

Things went off the rails last year. Bichette seemingly battled leg injuries all year, twice going on the IL due to right calf strains. He got into just 81 games, hit only four home runs and produced an ugly .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.

Turning to 2025, Bichette seems to have bounced back to his old self. Through 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That’s despite a slow start. Through the end of April, he still hadn’t hit a home run, leading to a decent but powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+. Since the calendar has flipped to May, he has finally gone over the fence four times, helping him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.

Turning to the Contract Tracker list, at the top is a level that Bichette shouldn’t be able to get to, with Corey Seager at $325MM followed by Trea Turner at $300MM. Seager got his deal going into his age-28 season, the same age Bichette will be next year. However, Seager was simply better. His power output was fairly close to Bichette’s but with far more walks, leading to a 142 wRC+. His defense was also graded higher.

Seager had 19.8 fWAR at the time he signed with the Rangers. Bichette could actually go past that since he’s at 17.2 fWAR right now, but that’s mostly due to Seager’s injuries (most notably, Tommy John surgery). Seager produced that WAR total in just 514 regular season games as a Dodger, whereas Bichette already has 655 games under his belt. There was some injury risk with Seager but he was far better on a rate basis and that’s what the Rangers paid for.

Turner was a bit older, going into his age-30 season, but his combination of offense, defense and speed gave him a massive ceiling Bichette can’t match. In his final two seasons before free agency, he produced 7.1 and 6.4 fWAR. As mentioned, Bichette has topped out at 4.9.

The next two names on the list are a bit unusual. Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM registered as a huge surprise at the time and the deal hasn’t worked out for the Padres so far. In the industry, that one is chalked up to the Friars going a bit wild. Owner Peter Seidler was in poor health and was allowing the front office to spend like never before, seemingly throwing caution to the wind with the knowledge that he didn’t have much time left.

Carlos Correa’s deal is also an unusual data point. His earning power was initially far higher. He had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants before they got scared by his physical and walked away. The Mets agreed to a 12-year $315MM deal with Correa before they, too, balked at his medicals. The $200MM deal with the Twins was therefore the product of a fairly unprecedented situation. The unique quartet of vesting options in the deal reflect the odd circumstances and could add millions more to Correa’s bank account.

There’s a case for Bichette to be in the next tier. I’ll circle back to Marcus Semien in a second and focus first on Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. Each signed his contract going into his age-29 season and earned between $23.3MM and $26MM annually. Adames and Swanson got a seventh year, pushing their total guarantees to $182MM and $177MM respectively. Báez and Story were each capped at six years and $140MM total.

Bichette will be one year younger than everyone in that group, theoretically giving him a bit more earning power. The question will be whether he’s ranked as highly apart from that. Adames is a better defender, with 11 OAA and -3 DRS in his career. That latter figure is a bit odd, as he was clearly in positive range before posting -16 DRS 2024 and -7 so far as a Giant.

Offensively, he had often been similar to Bichette. He had a 126 wRC+ in 2020 and a 120 in 2021, with 25 home runs in the latter season. His power remained in 2022 and 2023 but low batting averages dropped his wRC+ to 109 and 94 in those seasons. He bounced back in 2024 with 32 home runs and a 119 wRC+. His fWAR totals have generally been in the Bichette range of three to five per season.

Swanson was always a glove-first shortstop with questions about the bat. Through 2021, he still had a career 88 wRC+. But in 2022, his walk year, he hit 25 home runs and produced a 117 wRC+. Thanks to his excellent defense and 18 stolen bases, he was able to produce a 6.6 fWAR season. That was a tier above anything Bichette has done, but he had only done it once. Still, it was enough for the Cubs to buy in.

Báez and Story were more erratic. Báez was a subpar hitter in his first few seasons but provided enough on defense and the basepaths to be useful. His offense improved as he neared free agency but wasn’t consistent. His wRC+ spiked to 131 in 2018 and dropped to 112 the year after. The shortened 2020 season was a disaster, with a wRC+ of 57, before he bounced back to 117 in 2021. At his heights, he was almost a six-win player, getting to 5.8 and 5.6 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. Those were higher than any Bichette season, but he was also well below at times.

Somewhat similarly, Story hit a higher peak than Bichette by producing 6.0 fWAR in 2019. He hit 35 home runs, though playing in Denver during the juiced ball season surely helped him a bit in that regard. Still, the 122 wRC+, 23 steals and strong defense led to a six-win season. He also had 2.0 fWAR in the shortened 2020 campaign with similar production. But in his walk year, 2021, his wRC+ dropped to 98 and he only produced 2.2 fWAR. That tepid platform season and some concerns about his elbow health knocked him down a bit.

Here is the fWAR total for each in the six seasons leading to free agency, including the shortened 2020 season for all in the name of fairness:

Baez: 21.9 in 782 games
Story: 20.3 in 745 games
Adames: 20.1 in 795 games
Bichette: 15.8 in 609 games
Swanson: 15.1 in 789 games

Bichette is right in the thick there. As mentioned, Swanson bloomed in his walk year, so it makes sense he would be at the bottom of this six-year list. If Bichette has a typical year for him, he could add another three or four wins and get fairly close to the other shorstops on the list. Factor in some inflation and that he’s a year younger than everyone in that pack and he has a case to earn something around $200MM.

What will also work in his favor is that he’ll be the clear top shortstop this winter, as Adames was in the most recent offseason. Alongside Bichette, the only other potential everyday shortstop this winter would be Ha-Seong Kim. He is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery and needs to both recover and play well enough to opt out of the second season of his two-year deal with the Rays. Even in a best-case scenario where that all happens, his earning power would be below a healthy and productive Bichette.

This is all still somewhat hypothetical. As mentioned, Bichette seems to be getting back to his 2021-23 pace this year, but in a fairly small sample. There’s still lots of time for the season to turn on him. If he ends up having more 2024-style struggles, he could certainly fall. Let’s turn to the Contract Tracker again.

These are the top deals for second basemen by average annual value in the past five years (link for app users). This perhaps paints a picture of Bichette’s floor. Given his questionable defense, it’s possible that clubs may view him as someone who’s likely to move to second base fairly soon. And the earning power of second basemen is clearly lesser than that of shortstops. Semien did get $175MM from the Rangers, though that’s an outlier. At the time, the Rangers were five years into a deep rebuild and were eager to speed up the process with aggressive spending.

Gleyber Torres is an interesting comp for Bichette, as there are some parallels. Torres was once a highly-touted shortstop prospect, but with a better bat than glove. Unlike Bichette, he couldn’t stick at short. The Yankees moved him to second base for good in 2022, his age-25 season.

His offensive production has been somewhat comparable to Bichette’s on the whole. He went into free agency with a .265/.334/.441 line and 113 wRC+, a bit below Bichette’s typical range. He also had a tepid platform year, slashing .257/.330/.378 for a 104 wRC+ in 2024. He settled for a one-year, $15MM “prove it” deal with the Tigers.

It currently seems unlikely that Bichette would fall quite that far. His career wRC+ of 120 is a few ticks above what Torres brought to the open market last fall. Bichette also has a leg up defensively, as he will be going into free agency as a viable shortstop, at least for the short term.

But a soft finish in 2025 could hamper Bichette. In that scenario, he’d be going into free agency on the heels of two fairly disappointing seasons in a row. That was the situation Cody Bellinger was in going into 2023. After two injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he was non-tendered and settled for a one-year, $17.5MM pact with the Cubs for his age-27 season. He bounced back that year and went into the open market ahead of his age-28 campaign.

But there were enough question marks from his inconsistency, health and defense that he settled for a three-year, $80MM deal to return to the Cubs, well below initial expectations. He earned opt-out chances after each season in that deal but declined the first chance after a good-not-great 2024 season.

Time will tell where Bichette ultimately puts himself on this earning spectrum, but it appears to be quite wide. Anything from $20MM to $200MM seems somewhat plausible, depending on his performance over the four-plus months, which will make him a fascinating player to track.

A qualifying offer would be something of a footnote when talking about a $200MM deal but would certainly become noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the other end. The QO was $21.05MM in the most recent offseason and will surely go up for the coming winter, after a number of recent mega deals. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players. Each of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or higher recently. Though there are some deferrals in those deals, the QO value is sure to rise.

Bichette would only be eligible to receive a QO if he sticks with the Jays until the end of the season. Players traded midseason are not eligible to receive one. If the Jays fall out of the race and trade Bichette at the deadline, the QO won’t be a factor for him — yet another detail that could sway a volatile free agent case with many factors at play.

Photo of Bichette courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Rangers Claim Michael Helman, Designate Jonathan Ornelas

By | at

The Rangers announced that they have claimed infielder Michael Helman off waivers from the Pirates and optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock. The Bucs designated him for assignment last week. To open a roster spot for Helman, the Rangers designated infielder Jonathan Ornelas for assignment.

It’s the second waiver claim in a week for Helman. The Pirates claimed him from the Cardinals on May 14th but designated him for assignment two days later when they called up Nick Solak. Perhaps the Bucs were hoping to pass Helman through waivers and keep him as non-roster depth, but the Rangers have swooped in to prevent that from happening.

Helman, who turns 29 on Friday, has a very limited big league track record. It consists of ten plate appearances with the Twins last year. He got three hits but also struck out three times. The Twins traded him to the Cardinals for cash in February.

The Rangers are presumably more interested in his minor league work, which naturally provides a larger data sample. Over 2023 and 2024, Helman stepped to the plate 480 times in the minors. He hit 21 home runs and hit a combined .282/.356/.507 for a 121 wRC+. In addition to that offense, Helman has played every position outside of the battery in his minor league career, meaning he provides lots of defensive versatility.

His 2025 hasn’t gone well so far. He produced a .185/.260/.292 line over 73 Triple-A plate appearances. Perhaps that’s why the Cards and Pirates each took a chance at trying to run him through waivers, but without success. The Rangers will send him to Round Rock and see if his bat can bounce back. He has a full slate of options, so they can theoretically afford to be patient with him if he continues hanging onto his 40-man spot.

Ornelas, who turns 25 next Monday, is in a different position. Though he’s far younger than Helman, he is in his final option year. The Rangers added him to their 40-man roster in November of 2022 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

He had put up some decent numbers in the lower levels of the minors but hasn’t done much at the upper levels or in the majors. He has 54 big league plate appearances so far with a 37% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and .184/.245/.224 batting line in those. Since the start of 2023, he has 1,006 Triple-A plate appearances with a .247/.348/.333 line and 78 wRC+.

Given that performance and the fact that he’ll be out of options next year, it was going to be hard for him to cling to a roster spot going forward, so the Rangers have swapped him out now for Helman. Ornelas will be in DFA limbo for a week at most. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so the Rangers could spend five days trying to trade him. He has stolen a few bases in the minors and bounced around the diamond. He has played the three infield positions to the left of first base and all three outfield spots.

Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top