Trevor Story Meets With Rangers
The Rangers hosted longtime Rockies shortstop (and Dallas-area native) Trevor Story on Tuesday, per a report from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. While virtually every team with money to spend and a need up the middle is likely to at least the kick the tires on Story, the report of an in-person meeting suggests the Rangers may be looking to move early in the scramble for a historic class of high-end shortstops (a list that also includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez).
Given their stated intention to be aggressive in free agency and their clear need at short, the Rangers are sure to at least check in with other free agent shortstops, but there’s more to recommend Story than his status as native son. MLBTR’s eighth-ranked free agent, Story didn’t have the strongest platform year (.251/.329/.471 in 595 plate appearances), but his career line of .272/.340/.523 stands out at the premium position of shortstop — particularly given Story’s top-notch glovework (69 DRS across six seasons).
Of course, it’s always worth caveating the offensive numbers of any player who’s played half his games a mile above sea level, and Story’s home-road splits are substantial. His career OPS at Coors Field (.972) tells a very different story than his OPS on the road (.752). Story’s OPS+ numbers — 103 in 2021, 112 for his career — adjust for park factors and may give a clearer picture of what teams ought to expect from him at the plate moving forward. He’s also entering his age-29 season (not to mention coming off an elbow injury that sapped his power for much of 2021), so he’s a solid bet to see at least some decline over the course of a long-term deal.
The Rangers have needs all over the diamond, and finding a place for Story would hardly be a challenge. While incumbent Isiah Kiner-Falefa put together a solid season overall (particularly with the glove), neither Brock Holt nor Charlie Culberson (the Ranger’s primary third basemen in 2021, both of whom are free agents) are likely to feature in the club’s long-term (or, frankly, short-term) plans, and it isn’t clear that they view Andy Ibañez or Nick Solak as the long-term solution at second.
Because Story declined a qualifying offer, the team that signs him will have to forfeit a draft pick. As the Rangers neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue-sharing payments in 2021, the two-time all-star would cost the club its second-highest 2022 draft pick (currently the third pick of the second round) and $500K in international bonus pool money (here is an MLBTR primer on how compensation works). MLBTR predicts he’ll get a six-year, $126MM deal and lists the Rangers as a likely suitor, though they’re hardly alone. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported Tuesday that at least eight teams have checked in with Story’s representatives.
Latest On Starling Marte’s Market
We’ve seen an unusual number of high-profile free agents come off the board in the first few weeks of November, though they’ve all been pitchers to this point. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests, however, that the market for Starling Marte is strong enough that he could also sign this month, prior to the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.
That the 33-year-old Marte would command robust interest is only logical, given his longstanding track record and a brilliant 2021 campaign. While he’s a older than your typical free agent thanks to the club-friendly contract he inked early in his career, Marte has shown no signs of slowing down. To the contrary, his 2021 season was arguably his best yet. In 526 plate appearances between the Marlins and A’s, Marte turned in a .308/.381/.456 with a dozen home runs, 27 doubles and three triples — all while going 47-for-52 in stolen base attempts. He’s also perhaps the lone everyday center field option on the market.
Even if conventional wisdom suggests that the fleet-footed Marte will eventually slow down and move to a corner in a few years’ time, he still grades out as a plus runner and a respectable defensive option in center for the time being. Both Outs Above Average (2) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0) graded Marte as slightly above average, whereas Defensive Runs Saved was a bit below-average at minus-4. Make what you will of defensive metrics, which can of course be spotty on a year-to-year basis, but Marte has generally been passable in center and plus in left field. He also still ranks in the 83rd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec).
Given the scarcity of Marte’s skill set, the number of teams looking for help in the outfield (center field, in particular) and the lack of qualifying offer attached to him (he was ineligible by virtue of being traded), it’s no wonder that his market has quickly picked up steam. Prior reports have linked the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Giants to Marte, and Heyman tweeted this week that the Rangers — whom most expect to be quite aggressive in free agency — have also been weighing a run at Marte. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds this morning that the Astros, fresh off re-signing Justin Verlander, are being aggressive in their own efforts to sign Marte.
As we noted when ranking Marte 13th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agent rankings, the list of teams with interest in bringing Marte aboard will be quite long. He’s been widely expected to command at least a three-year deal in free agency — the Marlins offered a lowball, three-year deal in the $30-39MM range prior to trading him — and with a number of recent free agents commanding premium salaries through age-36, we pegged him for a four-year deal at a total of $80MM.
Several High-End Free Agents Could Sign Before CBA Expires
The 2021-22 offseason is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history, with players and teams somewhat flying blind as the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement looms at 11:59pm ET on Dec. 1. Because of the widely expected lockout and uncertainty as to what changes will be made to key economic facets of Major League Baseball — the luxury tax, the arbitration system, the potential implementation of a salary floor — there’s been fairly prevalent speculation that the majority of major free-agent dealings would only occur after a lockout has been resolved.
That’s not necessarily the case, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his takeaway column from this week’s GM Meetings in California. To the contrary, there’s a sense that top free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a few prominent starting pitchers could come off the board while the current CBA is still in play. Similarly, some in the industry expect that at least some of the offseason’s most aggressive teams (e.g. Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays) could be highly active in the days and hours leading up to the current agreement’s expiration, per Passan.
To some extent, it’s only logical to see the markets for certain top-of-the-scale free agents crystallize more quickly than others. Seager is one of the top two names on the market, while Semien is coming off the best season of any of the “second tier” of shortstops — those expected to sign north of $100MM but well beneath the likely $300MM+ price range of Seager and Carlos Correa.
Demand figures to be robust for both Seager and Semien. And, with likely interest from teams that won’t have immediate luxury-tax concerns regardless of who they sign, thanks to fairly wide-open payroll outlays, not every interested team will be overly concerned with waiting to see how the luxury tax unfolds. A lack of luxury-tax concern among Texas, Detroit, Seattle and Toronto surely dovetails with expectations that they could act more quickly than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers — both of whom will be keenly interested in the particulars of a restructured competitive balance tax.
Both Seager and Semien are of interest to the Yankees, Passan reemphasizes, though that much is well known by this point. Yankees GM Brian Cashman effectively kicked off the team’s offseason by announcing his desire to improve at shortstop, and it’d frankly be more surprising to learn that the Yanks were “out” on any one of the top free-agent shortstops than to hear they’re still in the mix.
There’s certainly no guarantee that either Seager or Semien will sign prior to Dec. 1, but it’s also in many ways sensible for both teams and players to want to strike early. Assuming there is indeed a lockout, MLB free agency would resume at a rather frenzied pace. There’d be obvious benefit to teams having cost certainty and avoiding some of that chaos by checking a big-ticket item off the list early in the process. From the players’ vantage point, there has to be concern about getting lost in the shuffle — particularly among second- or third-tier names. Furthermore, as is the case every winter, free agents tend to prefer the certainty of knowing where they (and their families) will be for the foreseeable future.
Even from an agency standpoint, early deals make some sense, if the demand is sufficient enough to drum up a palatable offer. For instance, the Boras Corporation represents both Seager and Semien, but they’ll also be negotiating deals for Max Scherzer, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton, among others. It’s a lot to juggle in what would be a condensed free-agent period, post-lockout. It’s easy to see the appeal of an early contract or two for any agency with a lengthy client list this winter.
To this point, there’s been little in the way of actual activity, save for a trio of one-year deals for Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), T.J. McFarland (Cardinals) and Joely Rodriguez (Yankees). Teams and agencies acting with a bit of increased urgency, however, carries the potential for a perhaps brief flurry of deals in the next three weeks, even if the prevailing wisdom is that the majority of the offseason’s heavy lifting will come in the wake of, and not in advance of, a lockout and subsequent transaction freeze.
Joakim Soria Retires
Right-handed pitcher Joakim Soria is retiring, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, relaying word from Soria’s agent. The 37-year-old pitched for nine different teams over 14 MLB seasons.
Soria made his MLB debut for the Kansas City Royals back in 2007, throwing 69 innings with an ERA of 2.48 and notching 17 saves. He became a mainstay of the Royals’ bullpen through the 2011 campaign. In those five seasons, he pitched 315 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.40 and racked up 160 saves. He was an All-Star twice, in 2008 and 2010.
That would prove to be the best stretch of Soria’s career, although he continued to be an effective reliever for another decade, pitching for the Rangers, Tigers and Pirates, returning to the Royals, and then stints with White Sox, Brewers and Athletics. In 2021, he started the season with the Diamondbacks and was later traded to the Blue Jays.
Over his entire career, he threw 763 innings with an ERA of 3.11, along with 831 strikeouts and 229 saves. MLBTR congratulates Soria on a fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.
Rangers Poised For Significant Payroll Increase
Rangers’ brass has suggested on multiple occasions the club anticipates being active in free agency this winter, and it indeed seems ownership is prepared to support an offseason spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers could add $100MM+ to their payroll this offseason.
That kind of offseason would certainly be atypical for a club coming off back-to-back last place finishes in the AL West. Texas clearly has designs at pushing forward their contention window, though. The current roster probably has too many holes for the Rangers to compete for a playoff spot next season. But adding one or more marquee players on multi-year deals could make a 2023 window more realistic, and this offseason’s free agent class has plenty of potential prime-aged targets. That indeed seems to be the front office’s thought process in projecting an active offseason.
“I don’t think we expect to just come out and be World Series contenders next season,” general manager Chris Young told reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). “That said, we expect to take major steps from where we were this year and continue to build this so that by 2023, we’re in a very good position and competing for the division and have the opportunity to make the playoffs and potentially win a World Series.”
As the Rangers have stripped down the roster in recent seasons, the team’s spending has taken a corresponding nosedive. Texas has opened seasons with a payroll north of $165MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently projects their 2022 financial commitments around just $51MM (including arbitration projections). Last month, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels indicated the club would increase spending over the coming offseasons. Daniels was deliberately vague about precisely how much money the team might allocate in each winter, but it seems there’s a chance Texas makes multiple significant additions and pushes back near franchise-record levels of spending this winter alone.
The Rangers have very few players locked in anywhere on the roster, giving Daniels, Young and the rest of the front office ample avenues to explore. This year’s free agent class features a handful of franchise shortstops — including Dallas-area native Trevor Story — as well as a strong group of corner outfielders. One of the youngest players on the market is 27-year-old Japanese star Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki’s NPB team, the Hiroshima Carp, are expected to make him available via the posting process.
Executives with other clubs see the Rangers as one of the prime suitors to land Suzuki, hears Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Between the star outfielder’s youth and Texas’ payroll space, it’s a fairly easy connection to draw. Suzuki is coming off a massive .319/.436/.644 showing over 530 plate appearances, and some evaluators believe he can immediately step into MLB as an above-average everyday right fielder. If the Rangers’ scouting department shares that level of optimism, then a pursuit of Suzuki makes plenty of sense. MLBTR projects the right-handed hitter to land a five-year, $55MM contract that would come with an additional $10.125MM posting fee to be paid to the Carp.
Story and Suzuki are just two of numerous options for the Rangers, who seem likely to be connected to impact players all offseason. With Texas having perhaps as much payroll flexibility and desire to add talent as anyone, it could be a winter of big-ticket pursuits in Arlington.
Verlander Showcase Draws Scouts From 15-20 Teams
Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.
As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).
Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”
By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”
It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.
The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.
Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.
Rangers Hire Tim Hyers As Hitting Coach
The Rangers are set to hire Tim Hyers as the club’s new hitting coach, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Hyers was in demand after leaving the Red Sox coaching staff last week, Passan reports, and chose Texas multiple other suitors.
Hyers is a known quantity for Rangers manager Chris Woodward, as the two worked together on the Dodgers’ staff in 2016-17 when Woodward was the L.A. third base coach and Hyers was assistant hitting coach. Hyers moved from that role to the Sox, where he spent the last four seasons as Boston’s hitting coach (winning a World Series ring in 2018).
Prior to his coaching career, Hyers was also a Major League player, appearing in parts of four seasons with the Padres, Tigers, and Marlins from 1994-99. His Detroit ties led to his first coaching job as a minor league hitting instructor in the Tigers’ farm system, and he also worked as a scout and minor league hitting coordinator for the Red Sox, as well as a brief stint as Boston’s interim hitting coach in 2014.
The Rangers have now added two well-regarded hitting instructors within a week, as Texas has also hired former Giants hitting coach Donnie Ecker to work as the new bench coach and offensive coordinator. Ecker’s role is to oversee the organization’s overall hitting philosophies and strategies, while it can be presumed that Hyers will work more directly with the big league roster.
Rangers Outright Ronald Guzman, Three Others
Nov. 6: Ronald Guzman has elected free agency, per ESPN’s Enrique Rojas (via Twitter).
Nov. 5: The Rangers announced this afternoon that four players — first basemen Ronald Guzmán and Curtis Terry, infielder Anderson Tejeda and reliever Matt Bush — have cleared outright waivers. All four will be eligible for minor league free agency.
Guzmán came up as a well-regarded prospect and served as Texas’ regular first baseman for a good chunk of his first two MLB seasons. He didn’t hit for enough power to offset high strikeout rates, though, posting just a .229/.307/.415 line that checked in sixteen percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+ from 2018-19. Guzmán hasn’t played much over the past couple seasons, missing almost all of the 2021 campaign after tearing the meniscus in his right knee in April.
Like Guzmán, Bush also barely played this past season because of injury. The 35-year-old suffered a flexor strain in April and missed almost the entire year, although he did return after a long rehab to pitch on the season’s final day. It has now been three years since Bush’s last extended action, as he also missed all of the 2019 and 2020 campaigns because of an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.
Tejeda and Terry are career-long members of the organization with scant big league experience. The former has tallied 94 MLB plate appearances over the past two years, spending most of this past season at Double-A and Triple-A. The latter earned a thirteen-game major league cameo at the end of 2021 after hitting .275/.349/.533 with the Rangers’ top affiliate in Round Rock.
Giants Claim Austin Dean, Joe Palumbo Off Waivers
The Giants announced they’ve claimed corner outfielder Austin Dean and left-hander Joe Palumbo off waivers from the Cardinals and Rangers, respectively. San Francisco also confirmed the previously-reported claim of righty Hunter Harvey from the Orioles.
Dean has appeared in parts of four big league campaigns with the Marlins and Cardinals. Most of that action came between 2018-19, as he’s tallied all of 45 plate appearances with St. Louis over the last two years. In 356 plate appearances, the right-handed hitting Dean owns a .225/.282/.391 slash with eleven home runs.
That’s below-average production, but Dean has hit extremely well at Triple-A. In parts of three seasons at the minors’ top level, the 28-year-old owns a .322/.394/.535 line. Assuming he sticks on the 40-man roster throughout the winter, he can factor into an uncertain Giants’ outfield, which manager Gabe Kapler has mixed and matched heavily based on the opposition in recent seasons.
Palumbo has been regarded as one of the more intriguing pitchers in the Texas farm system for years, but he’s battled injuries over the past couple seasons. His big league resume consists of 19 innings of 9.47 ERA ball between 2019-20, but Palumbo had posted very strong minor league numbers through 2019. Entering the 2021 campaign, Baseball America ranked the southpaw 26th among Rangers’ prospects, praising his low-mid 90s fastball and curveball but raising questions about his control and durability.
Twins Claim Jharel Cotton, Outright Rob Refsnyder
The Twins announced Friday that they’ve claimed righty Jharel Cotton off waivers from the Rangers and outrighted infielder/outfielder Rob Refsnyder off the 40-man roster. Minnesota also confirmed prior reports that right-hander Alex Colome‘s 2022 mutual option has been declined.
Though his track record is spotty, Cotton put up solid numbers as a low-leverage relief option for the Rangers in 2021, posting a 3.52 ERA (3.72 FIP) across 30 2/3 innings while striking out just shy of a batter an inning. For his career, Cotton sports a less appealing 4.71 ERA (5.06 FIP) over 189 innings, though prior to 2021 he hadn’t seen a big-league mound since he covered 129 of those innings as a back-end starter for the 2017 A’s.
Since then, Cotton has dealt with a variety of injuries, undergoing both Tommy John surgery in 2018 and a hamstring issue that also required surgery in 2019. The A’s traded him to the Cubs for cash considerations in late 2019, and though he was chosen for the Cubs’ alternate site, he was never promoted to the active roster. The Rangers then signed him to a minor league deal and promoted him to the bigs in July of this year after he pitched to a 3.00 ERA in 42 innings at Triple-A Round Rock.
Cotton will be arbitration-eligible in 2022 (Matt Swartz pegs him at a $1.2MM salary in MLBTR’s arbitration projections), which may be behind the Rangers’ decision to move on from the righty. The Twins evidently see him as a potential bargain, however, as they look to return to contention next year following a disappointing 2021. They’ll hope Cotton can help solidify the back end of a ‘pen that featured several solid options (Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, Tyler Duffey) in 2021 but struggled to cover a season’s worth of innings.
Refsnyder, a journeyman utility bench bat, was also eligible for arbitration, but the Twins have decided not to tender him a contract at a projected $800K salary. He’ll presumably opt for minor league free agency in the coming days.
Across 614 plate appearances in parts of six seasons with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Rangers, and Twins, Refsnyder has put together a .224/.310/.308 line. His versatility may give him a chance to catch on somewhere, but he’ll likely need to find a way to tap into more power (he’s slugged .442 across parts of nine seasons in the minors) to add much value.