Rays Interested In Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Kyle Gibson
The Rays have already made one big pre-deadline splash in acquiring Nelson Cruz, and more major names seem to be on Tampa’s radar. According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, the Rays “have had preliminary discussions about” Max Scherzer and Kris Bryant, while FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the Rays are also one of the teams who have spoken to the Rangers about right-hander Kyle Gibson.
As always with Tampa Bay, payroll will be a critical factor in any acquisition, particularly since all of these players represent larger financial commitments than the Rays are usually willing to make. As Passan notes, however, the Rays’ deep farm system can act as a counterweight to those salaries — the Nationals, Cubs, or Rangers could possibly cover most or all of the remaining salaries for their trade chips if the Rays were willing to include some of their higher-tier minor leaguers. It can be reasonably assumed that Wander Franco is untouchable in trade talks, but beyond that, the Rays could be willing to budge on other noteworthy prospects if it meant landing a player that could help them win a World Series.
Scherzer presents a particularly interesting case, since the Nationals are solely responsible for the final $7.5MM installment of Scherzer’s original signing bonus, and the roughly $11.8MM remaining of his $35MM salary for 2021 is entirely deferred until 2028. Beyond just kicking the financial can down the road for much of the decade, the Rays might very well even be in a new city (and have new revenue streams) available by that point, since the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field is up in 2027.
Scherzer would have to okay the move to Tampa by waiving his no-trade clause, and recent reports suggest that he would be more open to playing for a team on the west coast. This doesn’t necessarily mean Scherzer would veto a proposed move to Tampa Bay, but it is possible the Rays might not get the nod if Scherzer was presented with multiple trade options, such as a potential move to one of the NL West powers.
As one executive recently described matters to Murray, Gibson is maybe the “most unpredictable element” of deadline season. While someone like Scherzer obviously has a more proven track record, Gibson has been very good in 2021 but has been much more up-and-down over the course of his eight MLB seasons. Whereas Scherzer and Bryant are free agents after the season, Gibson is controlled through 2022, at the cost of a $7MM salary. The Rays could see acquiring Gibson as a way of checking off one box for their offseason shopping needs….or, given how Tampa operates, they could flip Gibson themselves this winter to save payroll space.
The Cubs have already moved Joc Pederson and Andrew Chafin in trades, and several other players figure to be departing Wrigleyville prior to Friday’s 3pm CT deadline. Bryant is widely expected to be dealt, though the shape of the Cubs’ other trades might contribute to what exactly Chicago does in moving the former NL MVP. Should the Cubs move a significant amount of money off their books in other deals, the team could be more open to absorbing more of Bryant’s salary (around $6.8MM remaining) in order to obtain better prospects from the Rays.
Adding both Cruz and Bryant would represent a major boost to an already-solid Tampa Bay lineup, and Bryant also brings the versatility that a DH-only player like Cruz lacks. The Rays’ penchant for defensive flexibility could see Bryant used at either corner infield position or anywhere in the outfield, depending on matchups and situations. Any potential positional logjam could be alleviated by the trade itself, if the Rays sent a position player off their Major League roster back to the Cubs.
Rangers Exploring Contract Extension With Joey Gallo
Joey Gallo‘s name has been at the forefront of multiple trade rumors for months, though Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers “have become more aggressive” in their pursuit of a possible contract extension with the outfielder. Gallo has one year of arbitration remaining before being eligible for free agency following the 2022 campaign. It isn’t known whether Texas has actually made Gallo an offer, as agent Scott Boras declined to comment on the subject yesterday.
It isn’t unusual for teams to make what might essentially be a last-ditch effort at a long-term deal prior to the deadline. (Just earlier this week, Starling Marte and the Marlins held negotiations that didn’t end up panning out, so Marte is now looking like a prime candidate to be dealt prior to the July 30th deadline.) Of course, it also isn’t common for these midseason talks to actually result in a new contract. While Gallo has expressed his fondness for remaining with the Rangers, striking a new deal in the midst of the season would certainly count as a surprise for multiple factors — perhaps chief amongst them that Gallo is represented by Boras, whose clients usually end up testing the free agent market.
An extension would mean that Gallo would be putting a lot of faith in the Rangers’ front office that their current rebuild would bear fruit, as the team doesn’t look in position to contend by next season. From the Rangers’ perspective, obviously they would like to keep a player like Gallo in the fold, but his greatest value to the club at this point might be as a trade chip.
Gallo’s name has already been linked to the Yankees and Padres on the rumor mill, and Grant adds that the Blue Jays (who have been scouting Texas games over the past week) are “perhaps the Rangers’ most favored potential trade partner.” The Jays could have interest in any number of possible Rangers trade chips, and considering Toronto’s need for arms, Gallo might perhaps be lower on the Blue Jays’ radar than pitchers like Kyle Gibson or Ian Kennedy.
Phillies Claim Tyler Phillips, Place Adam Haseley On COVID List
The Phillies have claimed right-hander Tyler Phillips off waivers from the Rangers. Phillips was designated for assignment by Texas earlier this week. In another move announced by the Phils, outfielder Adam Haseley was placed on Philadelphia’s COVID-related injury list.
A 16th-round pick for the Rangers back in 2015, Phillips is still only 23, but he hasn’t found much success pitching at either the Double-A or Triple-A levels. Phillips has a 4.72 ERA over 108 2/3 frames at Double-A Frisco, comprised of two separate stints in Frisco sandwiched around the canceled 2020 minor league season. Making the jump to Triple-A this season for the first time, Phillips has fared even worse, with a 9.90 ERA and more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) in his first 10 innings of work.
That small sample size was enough to make Phillips expendable in the Rangers’ eyes, though the Phillies will now see if a change of scenery can get him on track. Phillips did show some potential as a starter in the lower minors, delivering some good groundball numbers and (his control problems this season notwithstanding) limiting walks.
Rangers Option Nick Solak, Designate John Hicks
The Rangers announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of minor league first baseman Curtis Terry (as previously reported) and opened a spot on the 40-man roster by designating catcher John Hicks for assignment. Texas also reinstated catcher Jose Trevino from the 10-day injured list and, perhaps most notably, optioned struggling infielder Nick Solak to Triple-A Round Rock.
Hicks, 31, smacked four home runs in 10 games for the Rangers prior to his DFA but was squeezed out by Trevino’s return. He’s 8-for-31 on the season with those four dingers and has also posted a .275/.352/.440 slash in 122 Triple-A plate appearances.
Of course, Hicks has had numerous chances in the Majors prior to the 2021 season and has yet to establish himself as a consistent MLB presence. He made his big league debut with the Mariners back in 2015 and then saw action in parts of four straight seasons with a rebuilding Tigers club. He’s a career .236/.279/.401 hitter with a 32 percent caught-stealing rate but more questionable marks in the pitch framing and pitch blocking departments. Texas will have a week to trade him, place him on outright waivers or release him.
Solak, 26, opened the season as the primary second baseman in Arlington and got out to a blistering start. He carried an OPS north of .900 as far into the season as early May, but his production has been in a rapid tail spin since that time. Over his past 255 plate appearances, Solak is hitting just .190/.256/.273. It’s been nearly a month since he logged multiple hits in a game, and since that two-hit night back on June 29, he’s posted a .149/.216/.191 batting line.
Given those struggles, it’s plenty understandable that the Rangers feel it’s in his best interest to get something of a reset. It’s unlikely that this will impact Solak’s service time or general path to free agency. He entered the season with a year and 41 days of service time and would remain on track for free agency post-2025 so long as he accumulates a total of 131 days of service in 2021. He’s already at 113 days of service time this year, so unless he remains in the minors through season’s end, he’ll accumulate the necessary service to sustain that trajectory.
Rangers To Select Curtis Terry
The Rangers are expected to select the contract of first baseman Curtis Terry to the big league roster this weekend, according to Kennedi Landry of mlb.com.
Terry, a 13th round pick in the 2015 draft, is currently ranked the 26th best prospect in the Rangers’ system, according to MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs has him further down, at number 61 among Texas farmhands. The 24-year-old first baseman is having an excellent year at the plate. Through 269 plate appearances at Triple-A, he’s slashing .294/.375/.583, producing a wRC+ of 129. This is his first year in the upper levels of the minors, having reached High-A in 2019, before the 2020 minor league season was wiped out.
Terry has consistently put up great offensive numbers in his minor league career, with that being his most exciting tool. The scouting report at MLB Pipeline describes him as “an all-bat player” because he is a “well below-average runner with limited range at first base.” With a profile like that, Terry will have to be well above-average hitter to stick in the big leagues. The scouting report at FanGraphs has similar concerns about the overall profile but notes that he could have a saving grace with “his excellent breaking ball recognition.”
For the Rangers, there’s no harm in calling him up and seeing how he handles big-league pitching. The team is in last place in the AL West and fully in rebuild mode. Nate Lowe has been getting the bulk of first base playing time this year and has been hitting well, with a wRC+ of 115 on the year. But since the team doesn’t have a regular DH and has been using that lineup slot on a rotating basis, it should be easy enough to get both Lowe and Terry into the lineup when they want to. And speculatively speaking, it’s possible they could split time on a platoon basis, as Lowe hits from the left side and Terry from the right. It’s also possible that the lineup could lose Joey Gallo this week, as he has been one of the hottest names on the trading block this year, with the Padres and Yankees among the team to have known interest.
Regardless of whether a trade is in the works or not, a transaction of some kind will be required since Terry is not currently on the 40-man roster.
Dodgers Considering Ian Kennedy
The Dodgers are interested in acquiring Ian Kennedy, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
This isn’t terribly surprising news, as every contending team is always interested in improving their pitching arsenal as the trade deadline approaches. What is surprising is that the Dodgers find themselves three games behind the Giants in the NL West, a team that few picked as division favorites at the start of the season. And that divisional alignment is at least somewhat attributable to the fact that the Dodgers have lost to the Giants by blowing ninth-inning leads the past two nights.
Overall, the bullpen hasn’t been a glaring weakness for the club this year. The Dodgers’ relievers, as a whole, have an ERA of 3.73, the 10th best in the Majors. But they’ve also taken some hits lately, with Jimmy Nelson and Scott Alexander heading to the Injured List. David Price has also had to move from the bullpen to the rotation, in order to cover for the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw.
For Kennedy, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be changing jerseys in the coming week. He is a free agent at year’s end and is currently playing for a Rangers team that is 35-62, behind every team in the American League except the Orioles. Thus far, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings for Texas, accumulating 15 saves with an ERA of 2.59. Advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical, with xERA, FIP and xFIP pegging him at 3.40, 3.80 and 3.88, respectively. But he has excellent strikeout and walk rates of 26.8% and 5.7%.
Kenley Jansen has been the Dodgers closer for a decade now, and will probably continue in that role. But there are reasons for pessimism in his profile this year. Despite 21 saves, an ERA of 3.05 and a strikeout rate of 27.2%, Jansen has a ghastly walk rate of 16%, more than double his career rate. That’s probably why some advanced metrics think his ERA is a mirage, with xFIP placing him at 4.79 and SIERA at 4.56.
It’s possible this is just small sample noise, since we’re only talking about 38 1/3 innings and Jansen’s Statcast profile still looks quite healthy. But since Jansen is in the last year of his contract and will be 34 years old by season’s end, the Dodgers don’t have to be invested in Jansen for the long term and could certainly pivot to an alternative such as Kennedy if they felt they had to.
On the money side, Kennedy’s is playing on a salary of $2.15MM this year, leaving less than a million still to be paid out. The Dodgers don’t have to worry about tiptoeing under the luxury tax, since they’ve already blown past the top threshold of $250MM. (Roster Resource currently has their luxury tax calculation at $262MM.) But that means that they’re paying a whopping 62.5% tax on any additional salary they take on, which could make a modest contract like Kennedy’s more appealing than a costlier addition such as Craig Kimbrel, who is still owed over $6MM of his $16MM salary this year.
Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets
Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline. This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”
That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego. Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight. It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.
On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries. Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.” The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda. San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.
Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season. Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season. Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state. Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.
The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season. A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.
A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting. Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.
Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar. Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started. The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip. Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.
Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason. With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons. Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.
What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air. The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions. In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.
Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two. The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.
Giants Interested In Danny Duffy
Though Danny Duffy was placed on the Royals’ 10-day injured list on Tuesday, the Giants still have trade interest in the veteran southpaw, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. “Injuries don’t give San Francisco much pause in general,” Slusser notes, citing the team’s signing of John Brebbia in the offseason as Brebbia was recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Naturally, the Giants’ interest will hinge on just exactly how hurt Duffy is, considering that this is the second time he has visited the IL this season with a left flexor strain. That earlier IL stint sidelined Duffy for close to six weeks, so if a similar recovery period is required, he won’t be available for the Royals, Giants, or any other club until the first week of September. This still makes Duffy a potential difference-maker in a pennant race, though that assumes that he’ll still be effective after this latest layoff, and it also assumes that he won’t need a longer time to heal up considering that this is a recurring injury.
It adds yet another wrinkle to Duffy’s interesting case a trade candidate. While the Statcast metrics haven’t been great for the 32-year-old, Duffy has strong bottom-line numbers, with a 2.51 ERA and an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate over 61 innings. He is also a free agent after the season and thus a seemingly logical trade chip for the struggling Royals, though Duffy has full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player, and he has been public about his desire to remain with the Royals for the entirety of his career.
However, there has been some indication that Duffy (born in Goleta, California) might be willing to accept a trade to the West Coast. As such, teams like the Padres, Dodgers, and now the Giants have reportedly been linked to Duffy, though it remains to be seen if the other California teams also wouldn’t balk at acquiring an injured player. As Slusser notes, Duffy’s injury surely lowers the Royals’ asking price in a trade, so a team like San Francisco could potentially see him as something of a buy-low lottery ticket acquisition.
In other Giants trade rumblings, Slusser reports that the Cardinals and Rangers have had scouts recently watching the Giants, so some potential trade chips on those teams (if St. Louis indeed decides to sell at the deadline) could be on San Francisco’s radar. On the pitching end, Kyle Gibson, Kwang Hyun Kim, or even longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright stand out. Slusser notes that the outfield is a target area for the Giants, so Rangers slugger Joey Gallo would be a major fit.
Padres Willing To Exceed Luxury Tax At Trade Deadline
It might have seemed silly a few years ago to suggest that the Padres would soon have to make any decisions regarding the luxury tax — San Diego only reached $100MM in total payroll once prior to the 2020 season — but the Friars now find themselves roughly $6MM from the $210MM luxury barrier. And while many teams who are so close to the tax line are loath to actually cross the threshold, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that Padres ownership is willing to make that concession as the trade deadline approaches.
Padres general manager A.J. Preller recently indicated that he’d like to upgrade his lineup in an effort to coax more consistent production out of the group, and the Padres have struggled to unexpected levels in the rotation. Blake Snell hasn’t pitched up to his previous standards, and the Friars are currently without Dinelson Lamet (forearm inflammation), Ryan Weathers (fractured ankle) and Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery). Last summer’s big-ticket acquisition, Mike Clevinger, underwent Tommy John surgery over the winter, so it’s been known for quite awhile that he wouldn’t be a factor in 2021.
The Padres have consistently been connected to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo, whom Preller knows quite well from his time as a Rangers assistant general manager. Gallo would be an upgrade in right field over Wil Myers, and since he’s controllable through the 2022 season, he’d be a multi-year improvement for the lineup. Gallo is hitting .233/.391/.510 and pacing MLB in total walks and walk percentage, and he’s been one of the game’s hottest hitters since early June: .282/.444/.748 in his past 133 plate appearances.
That said, Gallo himself wouldn’t take the Padres over the tax barrier, and he’s just one of multiple possibilities. Passan suggests more broadly that the Padres are open to adding a “significant” bat (Gallo included). Several others would fit that billing as well. The Marlins and Cubs are expected to trade Starling Marte and Kris Bryant before the trade deadline. The Mariners and the Orioles will be getting offers on Mitch Haniger and Trey Mancini, even if the preference for both clubs would be to hold onto them. If the Reds’ current slide continues, it’s at least feasible that they’d consider deals involving Nick Castellanos, who can opt out of his contract at season’s end.
Regardless of which bat the Padres zero in on, it’ll likely be one of multiple moves the Padres make, given their aggressive front office and the simultaneous need in the rotation.
Draft Signings: 7/20/21
Today’s notable signings of Day Two draftees:
- The Reds have signed second-rounder Andrew Abbott to a $1.3MM deal, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America (Twitter link). That’s just a bit below the slot value that accompanies the 53rd overall pick. Abbott, a senior left-hander from the University of Virginia, gets good life on his low-mid 90’s fastball and missed plenty of bats in one of college baseball’s top conferences. Abbott’s 162 strikeouts this season trailed only top ten draftees Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in Division I baseball.
- The Rangers have agreed to a $1MM deal with third-rounder Cameron Cauley, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). That’s a bit north of the $857.4K slot value associated with the 73rd selection. A high school shortstop from Texas, the right-handed hitting Cauley was ranked #84 on Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings. BA writes that the Texas Tech commit is a good athlete with advanced bat-to-ball skills but limited power projection.
- The Cardinals have signed Competitive Balance Round B selection Ryan Holgate for $875K, reports Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a bit below the slot value that comes with the #70 selection. A power-hitting corner outfielder from the University of Arizona, Holgate checked in at #107 on BA’s rankings.
- The Padres inked Competitive Balance Round B selection Robert Gasser for $884.2K, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s full slot value for the #71 overall pick. A left-handed pitcher from the University of Houston, Gasser checked in at #63 on BA’s rankings. He attracted attention from evaluators after experiencing a velocity spike into the mid-90’s this year to accompany a solid slider.
- The Braves went well overslot to sign seventh-rounder A.J. Smith-Shawver. The righty from a Texas high school received a $997.5K bonus, reports Callis. That’s nearly $800K above slot to convince him to pass on a two-sport commitment (baseball and football) to Texas Tech. Smith-Shawver landed at #318 in BA’s rankings, drawing praise for a mid-90’s fastball and solid curveball.