MLBTR Poll: Julio Teheran’s Option
The Braves are currently licking their wounds after collapsing in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup against the Cardinals on Thursday. Before the series began, Atlanta made the decision to leave right-hander Julio Teheran off its roster in order to deepen its bench. It wasn’t long ago that keeping Teheran out of a playoff series would have been unthinkable for the Braves, as he was once among the crown jewels of the franchise. In fact, during his first two full seasons (2013-14), Teheran notched 63 starts and 406 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA/3.58 FIP ball with 7.88 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Prior to the second of those seasons, the Braves locked up Teheran to an extension worth a guaranteed $32.4MM over six years. At the time, it was the second-largest pact given to a pitcher with just two years’ service time.
Now 28, Teheran has hung with the Braves through the entirety of his deal, though he hasn’t been able to deliver the results he did during his early career coming-out party. Now, it’s possible he’s just about at the end of the line as a Brave. After the season concludes, the Braves will have a call to make on whether to exercise the $12MM club option for 2020 that they included in Teheran’s contract. They could pick it up with the goal of retaining Teheran, exercise it and try to trade him or decline it in favor of a $1MM buyout.
A one-year, $12MM gamble on Teheran wouldn’t look wholly unappealing for the Braves or anyone else. In Atlanta’s case, the club will head into the offseason with only Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz looking sure to return from this year’s staff (Game 1 NLDS starter Dallas Keuchel is a pending free agent). The team could also explore free agency and trades for other possible solutions and-or turn to young arms like Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller sometime in 2020. That foursome has little to no major league experience under its belt, though. Wright and Wilson have struggled over a small sample of MLB innings, while Anderson and Muller have not debuted yet.
If nothing else, Teheran has shown a consistent ability to eat innings. He’s fresh off his seventh consecutive regular season of 30-plus starts. Moreover, in 2019, Teheran continued an annual trend of yielding a low batting average on balls in play (.266), recording a solid home run-to-fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and outproducing his fielding-independent numbers. Across a team-high 174 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.81 ERA despite a far less appealing 4.66 FIP, 5.26 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. While Teheran added a career-high 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings, he also turned in his second-largest walk rate (4.28 BB/9), once again induced few ground balls (39 percent), logged an all-time low swinging-strike percentage (9.2) and averaged a personal-worst 89.7 mph on his four-seam fastball – the pitch he relies on most.
Teheran clearly has his flaws, but that doesn’t mean the Braves will move on from him. It also doesn’t mean he’ll wind up making zero contributions this postseason (he could get back on their roster immediately as a result of Chris Martin‘s oblique injury). Atlanta obviously has greater priorities right now than worrying about Teheran’s future, but once the Braves’ season ends, what do you think they’ll do with him?
(Poll link for app users)
Predict Julio Teheran's offseason fate
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ATL will exercise option with the intention of keeping him 34% (1,288)
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ATL will exercise option and shop him 33% (1,247)
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He'll become a free agent 33% (1,236)
Total votes: 3,771
Braves Leave Julio Teheran Off NLDS Roster
TODAY: The Braves have formally announced the full roster. In addition to the moves previously announced, the club nailed down a few other spots. Darren O’Day and Josh Tomlin got the nod in the bullpen over other options that included Julio Teheran, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Kyle Wright, and Bryse Wilson.
YESTERDAY: Braves manager Brian Snitker announced today that the team has decided not to carry Julio Teheran on its roster for the National League Divisional Series. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to cover (Twitter links). The action gets underway tomorrow, with the Braves squaring off against the NL Central-champion Cardinals.
The Atlanta organization elected not to carry an extra starter, preferring instead to operate with a deeper bench. Left-handed-hitting outfielder Rafael Ortega got the surprise nod for that spot, with Austin Riley also being left out of the picture. Veteran righty Josh Tomlin nabbed a final bullpen spot.
While the Braves did not formally release a full roster list, we can surmise the remainder of the picture:
Right-handed pitchers
- Mike Foltynewicz (game 2 starter)
- Shane Greene
- Luke Jackson
- Chris Martin
- Mark Melancon
- Mike Soroka (game 3 starter)
- Josh Tomlin
- Darren O’Day
Left-handed pitchers
- Dallas Keuchel (game 1 starter)
- Max Fried
- Sean Newcomb
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Snitker indicated that the team decided to carry an extra bench piece in large part because of the absences of Charlie Culberson, Johan Camargo, and Ender Inciarte, who might’ve been entrusted to broader roles. That pushed Teheran out of the picture, leaving Fried as the fourth starter if one is needed.
There’s clearly a real possibility that Teheran’s last appearance in a Braves uniform was his final one. He could still be called upon if the Braves advance to the NLCS and have slightly different needs. And it’s still plenty possible that the organization will elect to pick up Teheran’s $12MM option for 2020 — even if only to trade him on to another club.
It’s also potentially telling to see Riley left home in favor of Ortega. There’s little question Riley has a future in the organization; the latter was chosen primarily because he’s a left-handed hitter who balances out the options for Snitker. But it’s still notable that Riley wasn’t able to push his way into the postseason plans. It remains to be seen whether the Braves will enter the offseason planning to hand the third base (or a corner outfield) job to Riley for 2020.
Ender Inciarte Unlikely To Be Available In Postseason
Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte seemed close to a return at the tail end of the regular season, but was ruled out of action for the NLDS after reporting continued discomfort when he tried to ramp things up. He had continued working toward a potential return in the event that the club advances, but that effort now seems all but over.
Inciarte has been nursing a hamstring injury, but he has now also come down with a quad malady. As MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets, the belief now is that the veteran outfielder has no realistic hope of returning to the field of play in 2019 — even if the club is able to advance.
That’s a disappointing development for the Braves, whose NLDS roster — and potential future NLCS and World Series 25-man lists — would look a lot better with a full-strength Inciarte. The club would also dearly love to have Charlie Culberson and/or Johan Camargo available. Without these versatile and established performers, the Braves felt compelled to carry an additional position player (Rafael Ortega, for the NLDS) rather than an extra pitcher. That may not be possible in a seven-game series.
While Inciarte would’ve preferred to finish out the campaign in uniform, he’s still likely to return for another go in 2020. The Braves will owe him $7MM next year and $8MM in 2021, with a club option to follow. It’s possible Inciarte could be dangled in trade talks, depending upon the club’s other moves, but he’s still a highly useful and cost-efficient piece that seems to fit the Atlanta roster.
Ender Inciarte Will Not Return To Braves For NLDS
The Braves have shut down outfielder Ender Inciarte from physical activity, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He’s not going to be a part of the team’s upcoming divisional series roster.
Inciarte had hoped to appear in the team’s final series of the regular season. But it didn’t go well when he tested out his injured hamstring today. The decision was made that he simply won’t be ready when the NLDS gets underway on October 3rd.
Going without Inciarte isn’t a huge surprise at this point, and the impact is mitigated somewhat by the fact that Nick Markakis was able to return from his own significant injury. The club can still trot out Billy Hamilton in a run-and-glove role, too, though he’s not to Inciarte’s standard with the bat.
At this point, at least, the Atlanta organization isn’t ruling Inciarte out for a hypothetical championship series round return. But he’ll need to rest up and test the hammy once more. And it’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to activate him at that point, given the risk of aggravating the injury and the fact that he hasn’t seen live game action in months.
East Notes: Acuna Jr., BoSox, Betts, Yanks, Hicks
The Braves announced Wednesday that they’ve shut banged up outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. down for the rest of the regular season. Hip tightness and a left groin strain have troubled Acuna of late, but the NL East-winning Braves expect the superstar to be fine by the time the NLDS begins next week. The Braves, who are locked into the NL’s No. 2 seed, don’t have anything of substance to play for over the final few days of the season. However, it’s still a shame for the 21-year-old Acuna that he won’t have an opportunity at a 40-40 campaign. Acuna’s outstanding regular season will end with 41 home runs, 37 steals, a .280/.365/.518 line and 5.5 fWAR over 715 plate appearances.
Moving over to the AL East…
- Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has made it known that he plans to become a free agent after 2020, his final season of arbitration control. The 2018 AL MVP told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he’s taking a business-minded approach instead of one driven by emotions because of his upbringing. “Fans and media get caught up in emotions and that’s just not how I was raised and that’s just not what my point of view with my agents is,” said Betts. “We take emotions out of it and we focus on the business part. Of course, I love it here. This is all I know. But you also have to take that emotional side out of it and get to what is actually real.” Betts further explained to Bradford that a business-first mindset has steered him right in the past, specifically when he signed with the Red Sox as a fifth-round pick in 2011 and when he brushed off a possible contract extension before the 2017 season in order to reach arbitration during the ensuing winter.
- Utility player Brock Holt, one of Betts’ Red Sox teammates, may be in his final days with the club. The pending free agent told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that he has loved playing for the Red Sox, who acquired him back in 2013. At the same time, though, he finds the idea of a potential trip to free agency “exciting.” That’s understandable coming from Holt, who boasts a respectable track record of production. Injuries have limited him to 83 games this season, but the 31-year-old has batted a solid .303/.379/.414 during that 280-PA span.
- Although he hasn’t played since Aug. 3, injured Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks continues to hold out hope that he’ll be able to return during the postseason, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Hicks, who’s dealing with a right flexor tendon issue, has begun to throw from 120 feet. He hasn’t progressed to throwing to bases, though, and there won’t be any chance of a comeback until that happens.
Ronald Acuna Dealing With Hip Tightness
The last thing the Braves need at this point of the season, with nothing more to gain or lose in the standings, is an injury issue — least of all to a key player. In that light, it was rather concerning to see young star Ronald Acuna depart yesterday’s game early.
Per a club announcement at the time, Acuna was pulled owing to hip tightness. The team characterized the decision as precautionary. Of course, that’s something of a typical placeholding statement in such situations, so Braves fans would be forgiven for fearing worse.
Manager Brian Snitker made clear after the contest that the organization doesn’t see cause for alarm, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. “He’ll just be day to day,” says Snitker. “We’ll treat him up and see how he is tomorrow.”
Acuna was even more forceful on the point, saying he didn’t feel he needed to be removed and will be ready to go whenever he’s written back into the lineup. That’s just the sort of gung ho attitude you admire in a young player, but it’s also something the team needs to protect against with the postseason beckoning.
Indeed, the 21-year-old also indicated that this isn’t a new issue.
“I’ve been feeling it before. But I’m a warrior and I’m going to keep playing through these types of things. That’s just the way that I am. I was dealing with it and pushing through it. But eventually, it came to the point where it became a little more intolerable.”
Given that, it was surely wise of the Braves to take a cautious approach. Acuna is, after all, one of the team’s key players. Even if the hip isn’t a significant hindrance at the plate, it could conceivably limit him in the field and on the bases — where he derives significant value — or end up resulting in a more concerning health issue.
NL Notes: Zobrist, Sierra, Inciarte
The Cubs have, amazingly, lost five consecutive one-run decisions after another gut-wrenching loss to the Cardinals this afternoon. While much of the conversation regarding the end of their season will focus on this incremental collapse, the Cubs final games are also significant in that they may mark the last occasions on which Ben Zobrist will suit up for the team. A star of the club’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series team, Zobrist spoke at length with The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma about what may be his last days in Cubbie blue–and about the struggles his team has faced in 2019 (link).
“I think so much of it has to do with momentum,” Zobrist told Sharma. “I’m a big believer in momentum. If you get it early in the season, you can be 10 games up at the All-Star break. When I look at every year, there’s this ebb and flow. It just seems like no matter how good the team is, if you don’t start out fast like that, and kind of push ahead in the division early on, it’s hard to keep that momentum and get to a point where you clinch on Sept. 15.”
The Cubs began this year 2-7 and were without the help of the 38-year-old Zobrist for a sizable chunk of the season as he tended to family matters. Since returning to action on Sept. 3, the versatile former Ray has hit .320/.404/.460 across 57 plate appearances–production which should, if nothing else, entice rival front offices considering him for a contract next season.
More notes from around the National League…
- Outfielder Magneuris Sierra had been in the midst of his first extended success in a Marlins uniform, but it appears that a hamstring strain suffered in today’s game will cut his campaign a bit short, according to a tweet from Wells Dusenbury of the Sun-Sentinel (link). The 23-year-old Sierra, who a lifetime ago was a key component of the Marcell Ozuna trade, did some nice things in 14 September games for Miami, with a .324 batting average across a small sample of 38 plate appearances. That came on the heels of an uneven 2019 minor league campaign, in which he amassed a .282/.337/.365 line in 48 Double-A games before Triple-A exposure mellowed him out a bit (.271/.304/.399 line in 81 games). He did log 36 steals across three levels this year, which should aid him in trying to crack Miami’s outfield mix in 2020.
- Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte was previously said to be expected back this Tuesday, but the veteran may instead return this Friday, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com (link). It’s fair to wonder if the Braves are feeling a little less urgency now that they’ve clinched the NL East, but Inciarte will nonetheless be a welcome component of Atlanta’s postseason roster. Inciarte, who has been downed with a bad hammy since August, has only logged a -1 DRS figure in 63 games on the grass this year–a far cry from the +17 DRS he recorded for the Braves last year. Speedster Billy Hamilton, Inciarte’s replacement as of late, is 8-for-29 at the plate for Atlanta this year.
NL Notes: Mattingly, Freeman, Diamondbacks, Lamb
When Marlins manager Don Mattingly signed his freshly-inked two-year contract extension, he may have taken a significant pay cut to keep his position in the Miami dugout, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. While the precise financials of the contract have not been released to the public, Rosenthal’s sources have indicated that Mattingly will make roughly $2MM annually to stay in Miami—a considerable downgrade the $2.8MM figure that he’s earned this season. While the Marlins are notorious for their conservative spending, Rosenthal argues that Mattingly’s salary reflects an industry-wide trend that has driven managers’ salaries down. A veteran like Mattingly may have found it hard to match his previous salary had he elected to go job-hunting elsewhere in the Majors, where teams increasingly favor younger—and therefore more affordable—analytically-driven managers. That’s not to discount Mattingly’s work with the rebuilding Marlins, who have praised his ability to work with young players; however, it’s notable just how much the landscape of baseball has changed that a lifer like Mattingly is no longer a sought-after skipper.
- Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, who has been battling through a bone spur in his elbow, was again bothered by the elbow today, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. With his Braves having already clinched the NL East, he’ll play it safe and take the next few days off before rejoining the club on Friday for the series against the Mets. The hope is that four days of rest and treatment will have Freeman ready to go for the rest of year—it’s worth noting that, after the game, manager Brian Snitker said that Freeman would be in the lineup if the playoffs were starting tomorrow.
- With the offseason approaching, there will be no shortage of questions surrounding Diamondbacks infielder Jake Lamb, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Lamb has struggled through a second consecutive disappointing year after an All-Star campaign in 2017. He’ll be eligible for arbitration this winter, and the organization may opt to non-tender Lamb in favor of more affordable, less risky investments. Injuries to his shoulder and quad have robbed Lamb of regular at-bats, making it difficult to regain the swing that produced 30 home runs just two years ago. Unfortunately for Lamb, those injuries have opened doors for others in the organization, and he may now find himself squeezed out of the D-Backs’ plans.
Josh Donaldson On Braves Tenure
After back-to-back injury-limited seasons divided between Toronto and Cleveland, former AL MVP Josh Donaldson settled for a short-term contract in free agency last winter. Donaldson accepted the Braves’ one-year, $23MM offer in hopes of a bounce-back campaign that would propel him to a larger deal this offseason. That’ll likely come to fruition in a couple months for Donaldson, who has enjoyed a healthy and excellent year for an Atlanta team that’s close to locking up the National League East.
The playoff-bound Braves will vie for a championship in October, but no matter how their season ends, it stands to reason they’ll attempt to re-sign Donaldson. General manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested last month the Braves would gladly welcome him back, while Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote Wednesday they “would love” to keep Donaldson in the fold. Donaldson, meanwhile, seems to have a similar affinity for the Braves.
“I’ve enjoyed playing here every day,” Donaldson told Burns of his time in Atlanta. “And I look forward to playing in this uniform as long as I can.”
Based on the comments Anthopoulos and Donaldson have made, it’s fair to say the two sides have mutual interest in continuing their partnership. However, it’ll likely take a much greater financial commitment from the team in order to bring Donaldson back. Even though Donaldson doesn’t have youth on his side (he’ll turn 34 in December), he should still be able to land at least a two- to three-year contract worth upward of $20MM per annum in the offseason. After all, Donaldson has reestablished himself as a force this season with a .258/.378/.526 line, 37 home runs and 5.7 bWAR/4.7 fWAR in 632 plate appearances.
Thanks to his 2019 production, Donaldson may well end up as the game’s second-best position player on the open market, trailing only Nationals MVP candidate Anthony Rendon. Teams that need help at third base but can’t or don’t want to pay Rendon nine figures (perhaps around $150MM or more) could look to Donaldson as an appealing and much less costly alternative. If Donaldson cashes in elsewhere, the Braves will have a ready-made replacement in third baseman/outfielder Austin Riley. They still figure to be among the most ardent bidders for Donaldson, though, and it should help their cause that he seems more than willing to stay put.
Latest On Ender Inciarte
The Braves are hopeful that outfielder Ender Inciarte will be ready for activation early next week, manager Brian Snitker tells reporters including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Inciarte is working to recover from a hamstring strain.
When the injury initially occurred one month ago, it was estimated at a four to six week recovery timeframe. Inciarte is already hitting and running, so it seems he’s at the early end of the spectrum.
That’s great news for the Atlanta organization, particularly since the organization just lost two top reserve players to injury. Optimally, Inciarte would get at least a decent run of live action at the tail end of the regular season to ramp up for the playoffs.
Trouble is, there’s only a brief window left. And the Braves must balance the desire to get the outfielder reps — and assess his readiness to contribute — with the need to avoid further injury. As Snitker puts it, “reports are good” on Inciarte’s progress as he ramps up, “but what he does in drills is a lot different than taxing it and playing in games.”
No matter what happens with Inciarte, the Braves are well covered in the outfield. In addition to star Ronald Acuna, the club has welcomed back Nick Markakis from his own lengthy rehab stint and added speed-and-glove switch-hitter Billy Hamilton. With lefty bench bat Matt Joyce also in the mix for a postseason roster spot, along with right-handed hitters Adam Duvall and Austin Riley, it’ll be interesting to see how the outfield logjam is resolved if Inciarte is able to get back and show he’s healthy.