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Braves Notes: Brantley, Ramos, Inciarte, Revenues

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The latest out of the ATL….

  • Michael Brantley and Wilson Ramos are near the top of the Braves’ list of potential free agent targets, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman this week.  Given the two players’ age and injury histories, however, Bowman feels Brantley and Ramos are “nothing more than secondary options” for Atlanta at this point.  At this early juncture in the offseason, the Braves (and every other team) are likely making inquiries about just about every free agent that fits their needs, so it’s too soon to say whether Atlanta will end up strongly pursuing Brantley and/or Ramos.  The pair are fits for the Braves on paper, as Brantley could replace Nick Markakis in the outfield while Ramos could take over behind the plate from free agent Kurt Suzuki.
  • Also from Bowman’s mailbag piece, he speculates that “it would at least make sense for” the Braves to test Ender Inciarte’s value on the trade market before age starts to hamper Inciarte’s defense and baserunning.  Inciarte only recently turned 28, and there has yet to be much evidence that either his stellar glovework (+7.4 UZR/150, +17 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018) or his work on the basepaths (+6.1 BsR as per Fangraphs’ baserunning metric, though he did only succeed in 28 of 42 stolen base chances last year) is slipping whatsoever.  That said, Inciarte has been a below-average hitter and run creator over his career, and actually took a step back at the plate in 2018, hitting just .265/.325/.380 over 660 PA.  Since the Braves have another outstanding center field option in Ronald Acuna, it would be a bold but potentially wise move to sell high on Inciarte, as several teams would jump at the chance to add a player with his speed and defense, not to mention his affordable contract (owed $20MM through 2021, plus a club option for 2022).  Bowman notes that Atlanta would only move Inciarte for “a significant return,” of course, though the team figures to be open to just about all trade options, with Acuna and Freddie Freeman perhaps being the only true untouchables in the organization.
  • As per the most recent quarterly earnings disclosure from Liberty Media (the Braves’ ownership group), the team’s $410MM in revenues for the first nine months of 2018 has already surpassed their $386MM total from all of 2017, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  The move to SunTrust Park for the 2017 season led to an enormous jump in revenues (from $262MM in 2016), and as one might expect, the Braves’ run to the NL East title this season resulted in “increased ticket prices, higher attendance and increased concessions per turnstile” from July through September, as per Liberty Media’s report.  It remains to be seen if this revenue jump will manifest into a larger payroll for the Braves this offseason.  GM Alex Anthopoulos said during the summer that “there’s no single player that we can’t afford” while discussing possible trade deadline acquisitions, though a midseason pickup is certainly different than a multi-year free agent, expense-wise.

NL East Notes: Mike Fast, Braves, Nationals,

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Analytics guru Mike Fast joined the Atlanta Braves organization this Wednesday, he announced via Twitter. Fast was formerly the director of research and development in Houston before leaving the organization in late September. The former semiconductor engineer will serve as a special assistant to GM Alex Anthopoulous, who has made it a priority to improve the Braves’ analytics department ever since his hiring in November of 2017, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Per Anthopolous himself, Fast will be part of Atlanta’s senior leadership team, giving his input into all areas of baseball operations. Now, some other rumblings from around the NL East…

  • Right field and catcher clearly require the attention of the Braves’ front office this winter, where current free agents Kurt Suzuki and newly-minted Silver Slugger Nick Markakis have left holes, but improving the bench is not much further down their winter checklist, writes Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Versatile defender Charlie Culberson was a bright spot for the bench unit in 2018, but they could use a power bat to fill the spot once occupied by Matt Adams (and most recently by current free agent Lucas Duda). Outfielder Adam Duvall was acquired from the Reds last season in part to fill that role, but he struggled mightily in his 33 games as a Brave. Duvall projects to earn $3.1MM his first time through arbitration this winter, which makes him a likely non-tender candidate. He is a career .230/.291/.454 hitter. Still, while GM Alex Anthopoulos said they will be more “open-minded” about spending significant dollars on the bench this season, that’s not a development likely to happen early in the free agent season.
  • The Nationals do not see upgrading at second base as a priority this offseason, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Earlier this week Dougherty tweeted that the Nats were comfortable going into next season with Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo manning the keystone. Still, it’s a bit surprising given Kendrick is coming off a ruptured achilles, and Difo hardly looked the part of a starter last season when he hit only .230/.298/.350 in 456 plate appearances. Interestingly, Rizzo cites the organization’s depth, specifically prospects Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia as reasons for their optimism about the position moving forward. Rizzo’s comments are interesting because it means the Nationals are presumably comfortable keeping Trea Turner at shortstop for the foreseeable future. Further, Washington may view Kieboom and/or Garcia to be closer to the majors than it might otherwise appear. Garcia spent the 2018 season between Single-A Hagerstown and High-A Potomac, though he won’t even turn 19 until May. The 21-year-old Kieboom is the more likely of the two to make a surprise jump to the bigs (a la Juan Soto), as he played the final 62 games of 2018 at Double-A Harrisburg, hitting .262/.326/.395. The Nationals have, however, reportedly expressed some interest in Josh Harrison, though the former Pirates utilityman could back up multiple positions around the diamond.

Free Agent Rumblings: Cruz, Corbin, Marwin, Harrison, Chirinos

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Veteran slugger Nelson Cruz seems likely to draw quite a few looks from American League clubs. Per Jon Heyman of Fancred, the White Sox “are a player” in that market, while the Astros also have some interest. Either club would have some open DH plate appearances for the 38-year-old Cruz, who turned in a .256/.342/.509 slash with 37 long balls this past season in Seattle. That homer total, remarkably, was Cruz’s lowest in the past five seasons. During that time, he’s averaged 41 big flies per season while generally producing 45 percent more offense than a league-average hitter (by measure of OPS+). Houston GM Jeff Luhnow recently discussed a desire to add to an already imposing lineup, and Cruz would certainly fit the bill in that regard.

Some more early notes on the free-agent market…

  • The Yankees’ interest in Patrick Corbin is widely known, though general manager Brian Cashman made the fact a bit clearer at this week’s GM Meetings, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Asked if the Yankees were interested in retaining lefty J.A. Happ, Cashman acknowledged having spoken to Happ’s agent — though the agent he mentioned, John Courtright, actually represents Corbin. Both players were already locks to be on the Yankees’ radar this winter, so the slip hardly reveals any new information. That said, Davidoff suggests that the Yankees haven’t been deterred by anything they’ve heard from Corbin’s camp yet, adding that Yankees bullpen coach Mike Harkey was Corbin’s pitching coach in Arizona from 2014-15. Harkey, Davidoff continues, has already offered a positive endorsement in Corbin’s favor.
  • Former Astros utility man Marwin Gonzalez is the most versatile defender in free agency this season, and Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that he’s garnered at least some level of interest from nearly every club in the game. As a switch-hitter with at least a league average bat and the capability to play as many as six positions (all four infield slots and both outfield corners), “Swiss G” is indeed easy to imagine fitting onto virtually any team’s roster. Meanwhile, former Pirate Josh Harrison, a quality defender at second base with experience at third base and in the outfield corners, has generated some interest from the likes of the Yankees, Reds and Nationals, among others, per Heyman. Both players’ versatility should serve them well this winter.
  • Free agent catcher Robinson Chirinos has drawn some early interest from the Twins and the Braves, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The 34-year-old Chirinos hit the market after the Rangers declined his $4.5MM option. Chirinos’ .222/.338/.419 slash was a departure from his career year in 2017, but he did slug a personal best 18 home runs in 2018. Over the past four seasons in Texas, he’s hit .233/.337/.456 with 54 home runs in 336 games played. Chirinos’ strikeout rate at the plate and caught-stealing rate behind the plate both went in the wrong direction this year (in fairly significant fashion), but his track record at the plate is strong for a catcher, even if he’s never been regarded as a great defensive option.

Dansby Swanson Undergoes Wrist Surgery

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Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson underwent wrist surgery recently to “remove a loose body,” per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter). The procedure is not expected to keep Swanson from fully participating in Spring Training.

Swanson, 24, turned in a solid effort last year for the Atlanta organization. He hit only .238/.304/.395, but put the ball over the fence 14 times in 533 plate appearances. Defensive metrics regarded him as a well-above-average performer at short, enough of a showing to largely justify his near-regular action up the middle.

While the Braves can largely rest easy as to Swanson’s health, it’ll be interesting to see how the team handles its infield mix this winter. Johan Camargo and Ozzie Albies each had more productive campaigns than did Swanson, so it’s not as if there’s a glaring need. But the club could conceivably pursue an upgrade. More realistically, adding another piece to the mix could make some sense, particularly if the Braves are skeptical that utilityman Charlie Culberson will continue to outperform his batted-ball data.

However it may seem from the outside, though, Braves GM Alex Anthopolous made clear today that he doesn’t see a need to seek change in the infield mix. As David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker says that, within the organization, “we feel like we’re set in the infield.”

Pitching Market Rumors: Braves, Happ, White Sox, Kelley, Padres, Cardinals

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The Braves are interested in adding a closer this offseason, general manager Alex Anthopoulos confirmed to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi at the GM Meetings (Twitter link). That’s a fairly broad term, especially in 2018-19, so there’ll be no shortage of options for the Atlanta organization to pursue. Former Braves star Craig Kimbrel, of course, headlines the free-agent class of relievers, while Zach Britton, Andrew Miller and David Robertson are among the most recognizable names on the next tier of a fairly deep class of a relievers. Trade targets are harder to pin down, though several names have been generally kicked around the rumor mill recently, including Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, San Diego’s Kirby Yates and Seattle’s Alex Colome. Several other names will become available as the season wears on, and the Braves figure to be connected to a wide swath of ’pen options as they look to add a high-leverage reliever to the mix.

Some more bullpen and rotation rumblings from the early stages of the offseason…

  • The Blue Jays met with J.A. Happ’s representatives today, tweets Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. General manager Ross Atkins tells Davidi that Happ is “one of my favorite people in baseball” before also acknowledging that there’ll be ample competition for his services this offseason. Happ just turned 36, but despite the fact that he’s entering the later stages of his career, he remained as effective as ever in 2018. The veteran southpaw turned in 177 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA ball with a career-best 9.8 K/9 mark against 2.6 BB/9 and 1.37 HR/9 with a 40.1 percent grounder rate. Happ’s 10.4 percent swinging-strike rate was also the highest of his career, while his 31.7 percent chase rate was his second-best mark as a big leaguer. Fellow lefty Rich Hill received a three-year guarantee that stretched into his age-39 season a couple of years ago, so it’s conceivable that Happ could also find three-year offers (which would run into his age-38 campaign).
  • Morosi tweets that Happ and Patrick Corbin are among the names the White Sox have considered early in free agency, noting that the ChiSox only have one starter (Reynaldo Lopez) who threw more than 50 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA this past season. Rotation help is a clear area of need for the Sox, though competition for the likes of Corbin and Happ will be fierce. Both starters should draw interest from upwards of two thirds of the team in the league, with Corbin’s market being particularly robust given his status as the best arm on the 2018-19 free agent market.
  • Although veteran reliever Shawn Kelley suggested earlier this year that he could retire after the 2018 season, agent Mike McCann tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that Kelley has decided to suit up for another season (Twitter links). Dr. James Andrews recently performed X-rays and an MRI on Kelley and gave him a clean bill of health, Crasnick adds. Set to turn 35 in April, Kelley pitched to a strong 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 1.29 HR/9 in 49 innings this season. Kelley doesn’t throw hard (average 91.2 mph fastball in ’18) but has a lengthy track record of missing bats and has notched a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four seasons. The lone exception was a 2017 campaign in which he was limited to 26 innings due to a pair of back issues that landed him on the disabled list.
  • The Padres are in the market for starting pitching help this winter, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but they’ll focus on younger rotation options. San Diego’s goal, per Acee, would be to add someone to pitch at the front of the 2019 rotation and still contribute when the Friars are more concrete contenders. Unsurprisingly, he lists right-hander Nathan Eovaldi as a Padres target. Eovaldi has yet to turn 29, and his strong season split between the Rays and Red Sox — brought into a more mainstream focus with a big postseason showing — will place him on the radar for virtually every team seeking starting rotation help. San Diego did issue a club-record $144MM contract to Eric Hosmer last offseason and an $83MM extension to Wil Myers a year prior, indicating that new ownership isn’t afraid to spend money (though Eovaldi’s market almost certainly won’t push to those levels).
  • Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today that the organization has confidence that flamethrowing right-hander Jordan Hicks could succeed as the team’s closer next season, but that confidence doesn’t necessarily mean he will be in that role (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Goold notes that the Cards could add a left-handed and right-handed reliever this winter. The Cards overhauled their ’pen in significant fashion over the summer when they released Greg Holland, outrighted Tyler Lyons and traded Sam Tuivailala to the Mariners. Since that time, Bud Norris has hit the open market and Matthew Bowman has gone to the Reds via waivers, thus further adding to the potential for turnover.

Harper/Machado Notes: Braves, Mets, Cardinals, Giants

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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will drive the action of the 2018-19 free agent market, as the two 26-year-old stars are in line to land the two biggest contracts in baseball history.  Here’s the latest buzz on what teams may or may not be preparing to pursue either of the duo…

  • The Braves have been mentioned as speculative suitors for Harper and Machado, and Atlanta even had some interest in Machado at the trade deadline.  A pursuit of either player this winter, however, might not be in the cards, as per GM Alex Anthopoulos’ comments in an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on Siriux XM (audio link).  “We can be in on any player, we certainly have the dollars to do that.  I don’t know that it makes a lot of sense….to do deals that are ten years in length and longer at significant dollars with the payroll that we have,” Anthopoulos said.  “It’s not a rule for us, but I tend to not see a ton of value from our club that that would make sense for us….That doesn’t mean we won’t at least explore some things and see if we could line up on the right deal and the right term, but I am reluctant to go extremely long in terms of length.”  Freddie Freeman’s eight-year, $135MM deal (signed in February 2014, long before Anthopoulos was with the franchise) is the biggest contract in Braves history, though that extension was signed while Freeman was still 24 and in his first arbitration-eligible year.
  • Could the Mets take a run at Machado?  Recent history would seem to indicate against it, though the New York Post’s Joel Sherman lays out the case why pursuing Machado wouldn’t be so far-fetched an idea, starting with new GM Brodie Van Wagenen’s statement about how the team is planning to contend in 2019.  Signing Machado would obviously be a big help on that front, and Sherman also notes that keeping Machado away from the Yankees would also be of interest to the PR-conscious Wilpon family.  In terms of payroll, the Mets don’t have any salaries whatsoever on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus even Machado’s 2019 salary could be covered via injury insurance payouts from David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes’ contracts.  Sherman also speculates that adding Machado would turn young shortstop Amed Rosario into a very valuable trade chip the Mets could use to address other needs, or the team could try a scenario where Machado plays shortstop in 2019 and Rosario moves to second base, with Machado potentially moving back to third base in 2020 once Todd Frazier’s contract is up.
  • The Cardinals will check in on Harper as part of what could be a busy offseason for the team, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  As one industry source puts it, the Cards are “sending signals they are out to be a player” as a response to their three-year postseason drought, and also because they’ve missed out on other some major winter targets (i.e. Giancarlo Stanton, David Price) in recent years.  While the Cardinals still have some hesitations about extended long-term commitments to players, they could agree to such a contract in unique cases — as Goold notes, the team’s willingness to take on Stanton’s contract could hint that they are open to the record-setting deal it would take to land Harper.  Installing Harper as the everyday right fielder would make Dexter Fowler expendable, though St. Louis could also give Harper some time in center field while platooning Fowler and Harrison Bader between the two outfield spots.
  • The Giants also made a run at Stanton last winter, and San Francisco makes a lot of sense as a landing spot for Harper, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes in a subscription-only piece.  Beyond the major upgrade Harper would bring to the Giants’ shaky outfield, Harper could find the Bay Area as much of a fit as another often-controversial star (Barry Bonds) did years ago, though obviously Bonds had the hometown factor in his favor. Olney notes that Giants owner Charles Johnson “was all-in on the idea of adding Stanton,” and the club’s traditional willingness to spend big on free agents could be more indicative of future plans than what the Giants’ yet-to-be-named new general manager has in mind.

NL Notes: Reds, Braves, Teheran, Markakis

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Reds minor league right-hander Jairo Capellan died in a car crash in the Dominican Republic on Saturday, the team announced. He was 19 years old. Two other Reds minor leaguers – righty Raul Hernandez and outfielder Emilio Garcia (both of whom are 19) – were also in the car, and each player suffered injuries. Hernandez is currently in critical condition, while Garcia is in stable condition. “We received this terrible news and send our condolences and support to the families, friends and teammates of Jaro, Raul and Emilio,” said Reds CEO Bob Castellini. “Our Dominican operations are an integral part of the Reds organization, and this tragedy affects us all. We will remain closely involved to help everyone through this difficult time.” MLBTR joins the Reds in extending our condolences to the families, friends and teammates of all three players.

Here’s lighter news on another National League club:

  • Although Julio Teheran has long been a workhorse in Atlanta, where he has totaled 30-plus starts in six straight seasons, his status with the team is “in limbo,” per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Even if the Braves are unable to find a trade partner for Teheran this offseason, they may not guarantee him a rotation spot in 2019, when he’s due $11MM, Bowman adds. Next season’s the last guaranteed year of the $32.4MM extension Teheran signed in 2014. At that point, the Braves were hoping Teheran would emerge as a front-line starter for the long haul. That hasn’t really happened, but Teheran has nonetheless been a competent major league starter. The right-hander is also still relatively youthful, as he’s coming off an age-27 season in which he logged 175 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball. Teheran’s peripherals were less impressive than his run prevention (as has been the case throughout his career), however, and his already unimposing velocity trended downward.
  • More on the Braves, who haven’t officially closed the door on the Nick Markakis era, Bowman relays. Markakis is currently a free agent, though, and Bowman reports that the Braves will see if they can acquire a more powerful outfielder before potentially circling back to him. Set to turn 35 on Nov. 17, Markakis just wrapped up a four-year, $44MM contract, over which he offered slightly above-average offensive production (103 wRC+) in 2,745 plate appearances. Markakis, to his credit, was exceptionally durable as a Brave, as he missed just 12 games over the span of his just-expired deal. He took the field for all 162 games this past season and put up his best numbers as a Brave, hitting .297/.366/.440 (114 wRC+) with 14 home runs and 2.6 fWAR.

Braves Acquire Raffy Lopez

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The Braves have acquired catcher Raffy Lopez from the Padres for a player to be named later or cash considerations, the Padres announced today.

The 31-year-old backstop figures to serve as catching depth for the Braves in 2019. A key part of this equation for the Braves is that Lopez still has minor-league options remaining, per the Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter).

Tyler Flowers will make up one part of Atlanta’s catching team for next year, but his partner from 2018, Kurt Suzuki, is currently a free agent.  The Braves also had 28-year-old Carlos Perez, 36-year-old Chris Stewart, and 35-year-old Rene Rivera see limited time at the position last season. Rivera and Stewart are also free agents whom you can track with our 2018-19 free agent tracker.

Lopez came up in the  Cubs’ system after they selected him in the 16th round of the 2011 draft. For his career, Lopez has hit .184/.270/.322 across 76 games in the big leagues. He has spent time with the Cubs, Angels, Reds, Tigers, Blue Jays and Padres organizations, getting some major-league roster time in each of the last three seasons with the Reds, Blue Jays, and Padres, respectively.

For the Padres, this move is likely motivated by a desire to clear a roster spot. They are facing a roster crunch ahead of December’s Rule 5 draft, so moving Lopez is the first of what could be many moves to shake up their 40-man roster.

Braves Outright Lindgren, Ramirez, Adams, Tucker

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The Braves announced a variety of 40-man roster moves today. In addition to losing outfielder Michael Reed to the Twins via waivers, the team outrighted lefty Jacob Lindgren, righty Jose Ramirez, and outfielders Lane Adams and Preston Tucker after that quartet went unclaimed.

Each of those players will remain with the organization, having cleared waivers, though Adams has the right to declare free agency since he has previously been outrighted. With four other players returning from the 60-day DL and taking up posts on the 40-man, the Atlanta organization now has nine openings left to work with as the offseason gets underway.

The 25-year-old Lindgren was a second-round pick of the Yankees in 2014 and quickly rose to the Majors, debuting in 2015. However, his promising career has been derailed by a pair of Tommy John surgeries — the most recent of which cost him the 2018 season. Because of all the time he’s spent on the big league 60-day DL, he’d have been arbitration-eligible this winter despite only having tallied seven MLB innings. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him to earn only a modest $600K salary through that arbitration process, though.

Ramirez, meanwhile, missed most of the 2018 season owing to shoulder troubles. He tossed just 6 1/3 innings at the big league level with the Braves this year, though he’s previously functioned as a quality middle reliever under manager Brian Snitker. From 2016-17, Ramirez totaled 94 2/3 frames of 3.33 ERA ball with 8.5 K/9, though he’s also struggled with his control (4.5 BB/9, nine hit batters).

Adams, 29 next month, hit .240/.345/.520 in a tiny sample of 29 plate appearances as a reserve outfielder this season. He tallied 122 PAs with Atlanta in 2017 and batted .275/.339/.468 with five homers and 10 steals in that time. Adams has a solid track record in Double-A but has struggled in Triple-A. He’s shown glimpses of talent in the big leagues, however, and is capable of playing all three outfield spots, so he should latch on elsewhere on a minor league pact as a quality depth piece with a very viable chance of returning to the Majors next year.

As for Tucker, the 28-year-old turned some heads with an early-season showing that saw him hit .288/.333/.538 with three homers in 57 plate appearances. But Tucker had never managed to hit at that level in the past, and his bat quickly deteriorated (as did his playing time). Over his next 70 PAs, Tucker hit only .231/.286/.369. Atlanta traded him to the Reds in the summer’s lackluster Adam Duvall swap, and after a similarly uninspiring stint in Cincinnati, Tucker landed back with the Braves to close out the season. In all, after that fast start to the season, he hit only .202/.283/.342.

Twins Claim Michael Reed

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The Twins have claimed outfielder Michael Reed off waivers from the Braves, per MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (via Twitter). He was one of several 40-man casualties of the Atlanta organization.

Reed, 26 in November, was a fifth-round pick by the Brewers in 2011 and at times rated as one of the better farmhands in the Milwaukee system. His bat seemed to stall upon reaching Triple-A as a 23-year-old in 2016, though, and he took another step back at Double-A in 2017 — prompting his exit from the organization.

Reed latched on with the Braves on a minor league deal last winter though and absolutely erupted in Double-A and Triple-A, raking at a combined .342/.453/.520 pace with 11 homers, 26 doubles and 10 steals in 401 plate appearances (with better performance in Triple-A than in Double-A). He appeared in seven games over a pair of big league stints with the Braves but never got much of a look at the MLB level in Atlanta.

Reed’s minor league output, though, was fueled by ludicrously high BABIP marks (.426 in Double-A, .477 in Triple-A), so it’s no wonder that the Braves organization wasn’t fully enamored of his gaudy numbers. Still, he showed a keen eye at the plate (15.3 percent walk rate), didn’t post alarming strikeout totals (24.3 percent) and is capable of lining up in all three outfield spots. The right-handed-hitting Reed is out of minor league options, so he’ll have to stick on the 40-man roster all winter and break camp with the team or else be exposed to waivers once again. That, it should be noted, is far from a certain outcome.

 

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