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Nicholson-Smith On McCann, Tanaka, Hudson, Johan

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With free agency underway, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reached out to 40 Major League Baseball executives and agents to gauge the markets for both pitchers and hitters. Here are just some of the highlights from each well-crafted analysis constructed by my former MLBTR colleague…

  • Brian McCann hasn't ruled out a return to the Braves, despite the fact that most pundits are projecting him to sign with an American League team on a contract that's far too expensive for Atlanta's liking. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes profiled McCann in September and predicted a five-year, $80MM deal.
  • Many executives and agents that spoke to Nicholson-Smith doubt that Robinson Cano actually has a chance at reaching the $300MM mark that he and agent Brodie Van Wagenen suggested last month.
  • Cuban catcher Yenier Bello is expected to work out for big league teams on Nov. 5 in Tijuana, Mexico. The powerful 28-year-old hasn't yet been cleared by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), though MLB cleared him a month ago.
  • While we've heard several scouts predict that Masahiro Tanaka won't live up to the ace standards set by Yu Darvish, Nicholson-Smith found that there are several teams that do view Tanaka as a potential ace/top-of-the-rotation starter.
  • Tim Hudson's agent, Paul Cohen of TWC Sports, told Nicholson-Smith that his client wants to play for two or three more seasons and is interested in signing a multiyear contract this winter. I profiled Hudson last month, projecting a one-year, $9MM contract, but noted that some teams may be interested at two years.
  • Johan Santana wants to return to the Majors and recently began throwing. The two-time AL Cy Young winner didn't pitch in 2013, but he should be able to generate interest as a high-upside signing that comes with little risk.
  • Javier Lopez is seeking a multiyear deal this winter after another strong season with the Giants, and Nicholson-Smith gets the sense that there are many non-closing relievers eyeing multiyear deals. He spoke to some executives who feel that left-handed relief is one of the strengths of this year's market.

East Notes: Phillies, Braves, Orioles

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The Phillies could be major players in the outfield free agent market, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. That means they could pursue Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz or Curtis Granderson. (Of those, Cruz might make the most sense, since the Phillies have expressed interest in right-handed hitting to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup.) They're also interested in the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton, but it does not appear the Marlins will trade him. Other than Domonic Brown, Philadelphia got little out of their outfield positions last year. Heyman notes that the Phillies also would like relief help. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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After returning to the top of the NL East for the first time since their remarkable string of division titles ended in 2006, can the Braves defend their crown in 2014?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Boosting the Braves' hopes to repeat in 2014 — and, perhaps, enjoy a lengthier post-season experience — is quite an impressive slate of arbitration-eligible players. Of course, none of the club's outstanding, homegrown youngsters has yet to be locked up beyond the standard six years of control. Getting a conversation going with some of those talents could well stand high among Atlanta GM Frank Wren's winter priorities, though the Braves have failed to hand a new deal to any of their own players with less than five years of service time in Wren's six seasons at the helm. (Sifting through the many extension candidates, MLBTR's readers voted in favor of long-term deals for Kimbrel, Freeman, Minor, and Julio Teheran). 

As things stand, tendering contracts to all eligible players is projected to cost north of $35MM for 2014. And only Venters is a non-tender candidate among the players projected to be worth over $1MM. For a team whose opening day payroll has tended to land right around $90MM over the last several seasons, that represents a lot of cash. Though the team is committed to just four players (and one minimal buyout) for next season, that tacks on just over $42MM more. Filling out the rest of the roster with league minimum contracts could push the tab into the $80MM range. Unless the club is able to clear salary through trade or expand its budget, then, there will be relatively little excess available in the coming off-season.

Fortunately for the Braves, while Wren has a less-than-perfect track record on big dollar contracts, his front office has proven adept at extracting value from "free-talent" players. Among them, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro, and David Carpenter combined to add over 2 WAR last year, and figure to challenge for important bench and pen roles in 2014. And ESPN's Keith Law notes (Insider link) that more such players are in the pipeline, explaining that bargain bin pickups Juan Jaime, James Hoyt, and Ian Thomas could all appear soon in the Atlanta pen or (in the case of Thomas) even the rotation.

That group of players (Schafer excepted, of course) could have a major role in filling out the Atlanta bullpen next season. Kimbrel, Walden, and Luis Avilan seem sure bets to hold down their spots, while Varvaro and Carpenter should have every opportunity to do the same. Otherwise, last year's league-best pen (by ERA and FIP) is in flux, though that doesn't mean it lacks options. David Hale or Alex Wood could work in relief if they fail to earn a starting role (or remain stretched out in Triple-A). The club could bring back the excellent-but-injured Venters or O'Flaherty on a cheap deal. Or the above-noted free talent, perhaps joined by a new waiver wire claim or two, could battle with the club's other minor league pitching (such as Shae Simmons) to round out the corps. In any event, a substantial free agent guarantee seems relatively unlikely.

Likewise, as MLBTR's Steve Adams explained in his profile of Hudson, the rotation could be made up solely from in-house options. Minor, Teheran, and Medlen are all locks for a spot, and Beachy probably would be if his health were not at issue. As just noted, Wood and Hale could compete to start, and top prospects J.R. Graham and Sean Gilmartin could be ready to contribute in 2014. Beachy will presumably join the party at some point, depending upon his rehab progress.

On the other hand, with veterans Hudson and Maholm hitting free agency, Wren has indicated that he is interested in adding some experience to the rotation. After all, the club considered making a move for Jake Peavy at the trade deadline and claimed Kyle Lohse off of revocable waivers, meaning that the organization was willing to take on significant future salary for a veteran arm. Looking ahead, a reunion with Hudson remains a distinct possibility, particularly since his ankle injury could limit his market. Maholm seems less likely to be brought back, while Freddy Garcia could return as a long man in the pen or as minor league starting depth. Another veteran such as Bronson Arroyo could also be a possibility, but given the options on hand, it seems unlikely that the Braves will stretch the budget for multiple years of such a low-upside option. While many fans have called for the team to add a pitcher at the top of the rotation — with David Price, Max Scherzer, Homer Bailey, and Chris Sale among the hypothetical possibiilities — it seems unlikely that the Braves could pull off such a deal without giving up arms that are already in the bigs. And that would probably be an inefficient tradeoff given the team's budget constraints. 

The Braves' everyday lineup has some question marks in terms of outlook, but relatively few of composition. Feel free to use your pen in filling out an Opening Day lineup card at first (Freeman), short (Simmons), and the corner outfield (J. Upton, Heyward). Likewise, third (Johnson), catcher (Evan Gattis, Christian Bethancourt, Laird), and center (B. Upton, Schafer) are highly likely to be filled from within. Though none of these options is a sure thing, they have probably each either done enough in 2013 or (in the case of the elder Upton) received too great a commitment to warrant an upgrade at this point.

Of course, the preceding paragraph assumes that incumbent backstop McCann will depart via free agency. There remains some slight possibility that he finds his way back to the only organization he has ever known. But if McCann commands the $80MM commitment that MLBTR's TIm Dierkes predicts, there is virtually no chance that Atlanta can come close enough to convince him to return.

That leaves second base, which is the most glaring weakness on the Atlanta roster and perhaps the single position most likely to be acted upon aggressively. Uggla was expected to to hold things down well enough on the back end of his large contract, but he declined precipitously last year, especially after undergoing Lasik surgery mid-season. If any other team is willing to eat a substantial portion of the $26MM still owed to Uggla, Wren would have to consider pulling the trigger. 

But it isn't as if the organization has an obvious replacement on hand. It would be tough for a contender to hand the full-time job to Tyler Pastornicky, Johnson, or Pena, though they might combine in a platoon. Increasingly, it seems, 24-year-old Tommy La Stella could have a legitimate shot at taking the reigns after a strong showing in Double-A and big start to his AFL campaign. But MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo lists him just 14th among Braves prospects, calling him a "grinder" rather than a budding star. Likewise, in a recent evaluation, ESPN's Keith Law said (paywall) that La Stella flashed only one plus tool (hit) that left him with a relatively low ceiling. 

Looking outside of the organization, the free agent pickings are slim after Robinson Cano and Omar Infante. While Infante might be of interest, he will likely be too rich for Atlanta. Otherwise, the Braves would likely be looking at some well-traveled players, with Kelly Johnson and Mark Ellis (assuming the Dodgers decline his option) among the most attractive options. (There is some history behind a couple of these options: Infante was dealt from Atlanta to pick up Uggla, while Johnson was once non-tendered by the club in 2009.)

While the rumor of Atlanta's interest in acquiring Brandon Phillips in exchange for Uggla and a prospect could make sense from the home team's perspective, it is far from clear that the feeling would be shared in Cincinnati. Howie Kendrick of the Angels might be a target, as he is only owed $18.85MM over the next two seasons, and the Braves could stand to part with some of the young pitching desired in Anaheim. Otherwise, a series of lesser keystone possibilities might be had via trade.

On the bench, with more attractive middle infield options likely available (see above), Janish's time may be up. Likewise, a poor 2012 and cheap buyout make Reed Johnson seem a decent bet to leave town, especially since the club has several other players capable of manning center. A more substantial catching role would take Gattis out of the reserve outfield mix, leaving room for an addition. Of course, Atlanta has some other internal bench hopefuls like Joey Terdoslavich, and will no doubt be loath to spend much for part-time contributors. 

Some teams are fun to watch in the offseason because they spend big; others, because their constraints make every move a complicated, seemingly momentous endeavor. At least assuming the club maintains its payroll at approximately the same level, the Braves seem clearly to fall in the latter category this year. Strong seasons from several prominent younger players have increased payroll pressure via arbitration, while disappointments from some of the team's few major commitments have reduced the possibility of shedding salary. And the clock is ticking on locking up some of the Braves' top-end young talent before free agency beckons. While Atlanta will undoubtedly return a very good team regardless, it will be fascinating to see how Wren maneuvers to set the club up for the future and fill its few areas of immediate need.

Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Braves are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Kimbrel's arbitration case is so incredible, we created a rule around it to limit his salary.  Since his salary could escalate like no other reliever's has before, the Braves could try to get out in front of the situation and sign him to a multiyear deal.  It's difficult to imagine buying out his three arbitration years for less than $25MM, and free agent years could cost $13MM apiece.  There is no template here, and the safe bet for the Braves is to go year-to-year.

Medlen followed up his stellar 2012 with a strong 3.11 ERA in 197 regular season innings.  A Tommy John survivor, Medlen is quietly closing in on free agency after the 2015 season.  If the Braves want to lock him up, Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal could be a starting point.  The arbitration cases of Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, and Doug Fister will be relevant to Medlen this winter, as all of them are in the four-plus service class.

The Braves may also want to look into locking up Minor, who achieves Super Two status after posting a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings.  Gio Gonzalez, also a Super Two at the time, signed a five-year, $42MM deal prior to the 2012 season, which is still a record for a two-plus pitcher.

Beachy doesn't project to earn much his first time through arbitration, as he has only 267 2/3 career innings and only 111 over 2012-13 due to Tommy John surgery.  He's still not all the way back, with arthroscopic elbow surgery being done in September.  He'll be in the Braves' rotation mix next year if healthy.

Freeman put together an MVP-caliber year at first base, hitting .319 with 23 home runs and 109 RBI.  On an extension, he'd easily be able to top Billy Butler's four-year, $30MM deal, which will be four years old come January.  RBIs pay in arbitration and free agency, and Freeman has 203 over the last two years.  He may just go year-to-year and watch his salary rise rapidly from our already-solid projected starting point of $4.9MM.  Though the Braves have traditional extension candidates in Kimbrel, Medlen, Minor, and Freeman, they have rarely done these types of deals.  Brian McCann's 2007 contract is the most recent example.

A year ago, Heyward was one of the game's best young players not signed to a multiyear extension.  Though he had another strong season, he missed time due to an appendectomy, hamstring strain, and fractured jaw in 2013.  He'll play at age 24 next year and seems primed for a big season.  Johnson, meanwhile, contended for the NL batting title and finished with a .321 average.  Unlike this year, he won't have to worry about having a platoon partner at third base to begin the 2014 season.

Turning to the Braves' bench, Schafer battled injuries but was a useful fourth outfielder.  Infielder Ramiro Pena was off to a nice start until a shoulder injury ended his season in June.  He hopes to be ready for spring training after having surgery.  Elliot Johnson joined the Royals as the player to be named later in the James Shields–Wil Myers deal, after being designated for assignment.  He was the team's regular second baseman at times, but was designated for assignment again in August.  The Braves claimed him off waivers, and he was their starter in the playoffs at second base over Dan Uggla.  Though Johnson wasn't particularly good in 2013, I think the Braves will keep him given the uncertainty with Pena.  Janish has a low salary projection, but seems likely to be non-tendered after giving way to Johnson this year.

Finishing up the Braves' sizeable group, Walden, Venters, and Martinez are also up for arbitration.  Walden is secure after posting a 3.45 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 in 47 innings.  Venters had his second career Tommy John surgery in May, and faces a lower success rate than those who had the procedure once.  We project his salary to stay at the $1.625MM he earned in 2013, though as we saw with the Royals and Felipe Paulino, a slight pay cut is possible.  Venters stands a decent chance of being non-tendered.  Also on thin ice is Cristhian Martinez, who had shoulder surgery in July.

Assuming the Braves tender contracts to Kimbrel, Medlen, Freeman, Heyward, Chris Johnson, Minor, Walden, Schafer, Elliot Johnson, Beachy, and Pena, they're looking at an estimated $35.15MM for 11 arbitration eligible players.       

Arbitration Breakdown: Craig Kimbrel

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Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

In just over three years on the baseball diamond as a member of the Atlanta Braves, Craig Kimbrel has accomplished a wide variety of feats. He has led the National League in saves for three years in a row, with 139 saves in his young career. Kimbrel struck out a fantastic 381 hitters, which amounts to 43 percent of all hitters faced (more than twice the league average). He has also kept runs off the board like no one else, allowing a microscopic 1.39 ERA in his 227 1/3 innings pitched. Now, we can add one more trophy to his case here at MLB Trade Rumors: he is the namesake of the Kimbrel Rule, as well as the first player whose arbitration salary projection has ever been affected by it. Why do we need this Kimbrel Rule? Quite simply, Kimbrel broke my arbitration model.

The result that the model spit out was so outlandishly high that no panel would ever have awarded it to him. The model works by considering how panels and settling parties (teams and agents) have previously interpreted different statistics and factors into their decision, and provides a salary estimate based on these. This is often useful, for example, because we can see how many saves a closer would need to have to offset a higher ERA than a previous comparable. Similarly, for a hitter, we can see how much an MVP adds to salary and how many home runs a hitter would need to belt to make up the difference. However, there is no category in which Kimbrel failed to dominate the preceding closers who have reached their first year of arbitration.

Consider the following lists of maximum first-year salaries for closers in arbitration over the previous seven years:

Jonathan Papelbon ($6.25MM):

  • Platform year—41 SV, 2.34 ERA, 69 1/3 IP, 77 SO
  • Previous years—72 SV, 1.63 ERA, 160 2/3 IP, 193 SO

Bobby Jenks ($5.60MM):

  • Platform year—30 SV, 2.63 ERA, 61 2/3 IP, 38 SO
  • Previous years—87 SV, 3.26 ERA, 174 IP, 186 SO

John Axford ($5.00MM):

  • Platform year—35 SV, 4.68 ERA, 69 1/3 IP, 93 SO
  • Previous years—71 SV, 2.26 ERA, 139 1/3 IP, 171 SO

Brian Wilson ($4.46MM):

  • Platform year: 38 SV, 2.74 ERA, 72 1/3 IP, 83 SO
  • Previous years: 48 SV, 4.34 ERA, 116 IP, 108 SO

Now consider Kimbrel’s primary arbitration-relevant statistics:

Craig Kimbrel (unknown):

  • Platform year—50 SV, 1.21 ERA, 67 IP, 98 SO
  • Previous years—89 SV, 1.46 ERA, 160.1 IP, 283 SO

Now consider the records for each of these statistics by all closers (defined by having 15 platform-year saves or 50 pre-platform saves) put together before Kimbrel, which we will call Mutant Super-Closer:

Mutant Super-Closer:

  • Platform year—41 SV, 1.71 ERA, 78 1/3 IP, 93 SO
  • Previous years—87 SV, 1.63 ERA, 252 IP, 269 SO

Other than innings, Kimbrel actually beat the Mutant Super-Closer too. He beat every previous closer in every previous category.

Looking at the foursome of potential comparables above, it is clear that Papelbon is the only closer who even came close to achieving what Kimbrel ultimately has achieved, and he fell far short of Kimbrel’s accomplishments in every category.

Kimbrel had 50 saves in 2013, his platform season. The most any other pitcher has had going into his first year of arbitration in recent memory (which includes the last seven years, the data I have available) was Jonathan Papelbon, who had 41. No one had more career saves in recent memory than Bobby Jenks who had 117 going into arbitration for the first time, but Kimbrel has 139.

Kimbrel has a 1.39 career ERA, which is well ahead of any other closer reaching arbitration. The closest was Papelbon who had a 1.84 ERA going into his first year of arbitration in 2009, but his 2.34 platform year ERA fell far short of Kimbrel’s 1.21 mark for 2013.

Kimbrel also has all other closers beat on strikeouts too, tallying 381. The next highest for a closer going into his first year of arbitration was 362 strikeouts by Carlos Marmol leading into 2010, but Marmol’s 23 career saves at this point fall well short of Kimbrel’s 139.

In the end, there just weren’t any comparable pitchers for Kimbrel. There was no category where he fell short of another closer’s mark, and the accolades piled on to escalate his salary projection. This is why we invented “The Kimbrel Rule,” which is defined by limiting the maximum salary projection possible to exceed the previous record for his player type to $1MM (and similarly, the maximum raise for a non-first time eligible player is $1MM greater than the previous record raise as well). In this case, no one has ever earned more in their first year of arbitration as a closer than Jonathan Papelbon, when he earned $6.25MM in 2009, so Kimbrel is projected for $7.25MM despite the model itself predicting a salary well in excess of this amount.

This number was selected as a rough approximation of what teams, agents, and arbitration panels have historically decided on. In general, the model I use does a good job of approximating the end-result of their decision processes, but when faced with no historical precedent, there is often a settlement that avoids beating the previous record by too much. Therefore, we have made this specific rule a part of the model. It is not the first time that we have let the model “have eyes.” For players who do not play in a given season, we have observed that they so frequently get rewarded with their exact previous salary that this is now an explicit rule in the model. No player gets projected for a decrease in salary anymore because those that would have often received this floor anyway—their previous salary. Now, we have a rule for the ceiling for players.

We are eagerly awaiting the ultimate settlement in the Kimbrel case, because we have spent much of the last few months discussing the peculiar case of Mr. Craig M. Kimbrel. It is our suspicion that he will land much closer to the $7.25MM we have projected for him than the high number the model produced, which I might as well confess was actually $10.2MM. However, Kimbrel is not just the namesake of the rule; he is also the first test of the Kimbrel Rule. While a couple other players will have their salaries dampened by the Kimbrel Rule in 2014, the amount that it changed their salary projection was under $1MM in these cases, nothing that could shine a light on the theory. Going forward, this may be a clue about how to treat exceptional cases for us (and possibly, for the teams and players themselves). Of course, maybe the Braves will hurry up and settle with him before he breaks my computer.

NL East Notes: Wacha, Uggla, Phillies, Williams

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The Mets were focused on position players in the 2012 draft, which is why they took shortstop Gavin Cecchini with the draft's 12th overall selection and didn't take Michael Wacha, the New York Post's Mike Puma writes.  Paul DePodesta, the Mets' VP of player development and amateur scouting, tells Puma that "we really liked Wacha, and he was high up on our board," but the team felt it had enough minor league pitching depth already and needed help around the diamond.  Wacha, of course, ended up going to the Cardinals with the 19th overall pick and has already emerged as a star during St. Louis' postseason run.

Here's some more from around the NL East…

  • "The Braves certainly will entertain shopping" Dan Uggla, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reports, and he looks at the chances of Uggla re-joining the Marlins as part of a reader mailbag.  Frisaro suggests the Braves would move Uggla if a team agrees to pay $6MM of the $26MM owed to Uggla through the 2015 season, and if the trade partner pays more, Atlanta could add a prospect.  I'd suggest that the Braves would have to sweeten the pot to move Uggla, who turns 34 in March, is a defensive liability at second base and has only hit .201/.330/.374 over the last two seasons.  The Braves have been linked to a possible deal of Uggla and a prospect to the Reds for Brandon Phillips. 
  • The Braves have "been lucky of late" to remain competitive despite overspending on Uggla and B.J. Upton, Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  Bradley warns that the team can't afford any more of these overpriced deals, and suggests that re-signing Brian McCann would create another payroll albatross in a few years' time.
  • The Phillies' chances of re-signing Carlos Ruiz, their limited payroll and a suggestion about a David Price trade are all addressed in a Phillies-centric reader mailbag from MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.
  • That limited Phillies budget could make it hard to upgrade their rotation since there won't be many bargains to be found on the pitching market this winter, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes.
  • Matt Williams "seems to be the best available choice" to be the Nationals' next manager, and though Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post notes some of the risks involved in the impending hiring, he feels it could be a bold move for the team.

Minor Moves: Green, Kroenke, Narveson, Lalli

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Here are the day's minor moves …

  • The Brewers have re-signed corner infielder Taylor Green to a minor league deal after he was recently outrighted, agent Joshua Kusnick announced via Twitter (hat tip to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Andrew Gruman of FOXSportsWisconsin.com). The contract includes several opt outs and an invitation to big league spring training. Though the 27-year-old missed most of 2013 due to injury, he has a nice .311/.386/.513 line in parts of two seasons at the highest minor league level. His major league career line is less impressive — .207/.266/.343 — but it has come in just 154 plate appearances over two seasons. MLB.com's Adam McCalvy has the details. 
  • The club is also close to reaching a deal to bring back lefty Zach Kroenke, who is also represented by Kusnick, McCalvy reports in the same link. Kroenke has spent much of his time in Triple-A since 2009, splitting time between relieving and starting. Last year, he put up a 4.51 ERA in 129 2/3 innings. His deal does not include an invitation to MLB spring training.
  • Meanwhile, both lefty Chris Narveson and catcher/first baseman Blake Lalli have elected to become minor league free agents, notes McCalvy via Twitter. The news was originally tweeted by the Brewers Player Development account. Narveson, who spent 2010 and 2011 in the Milwaukee rotation but has not seen substantial MLB time since, was outrighted back in June. He posted a 5.14 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts this past season. Lalli, who was designated and then outrighted in September, has never been given a real chance in the bigs, but did put up a .282/.334/.447 line in 311 Triple-A plate appearances last year.
  • The White Sox recently dealt for first baseman Jackson Laumann, sending the Braves cash considerations in return, reports Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. Laumann, a 20-year-old righty, has done little to impress in rookie ball but will get a new shot with an organization whose amateur scouting department is headed by his father, Doug Laumann.
  • Alex Castellanos of the Dodgers remains the only player in DFA limbo at present, as reflected in MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

NL Notes: Cardinals, Phillips, Dodgers

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With the Cardinals advancing to the World Series yet again, SI.com's Tom Verducci writes that it is fair to expect more of the same in the future. Verducci says that the Adam Wainwright–Michael Wacha starting combo has been a younger version of the Diamondbacks' top-of-the-rotation duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling during that club's 2001 World Series run. Some of the Cards' top National League competitors, meanwhile, are already looking for ways to knock them off their perch:

  • The Braves could be interested in trading for Reds' second baseman Brandon Phillips if Cinci is amenable to taking on fellow keystoner Dan Uggla in the deal, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Atlanta would most likely need to part with a top prospect to make such a deal happen, according to O'Brien. We learned yesterday that the Redlegs were shopping their veteran second bagger. 
  • Meanwhile, after losing to St. Louis, the Dodgers face some significant questions about 2014, writes MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. The club holds options over manager Don Mattingly, second baseman Mark Ellis, and lefty Chris Capuano. With Juan Uribe and Ricky Nolasco reaching free agency, third base and the back end of the starting rotation are question marks. And the pen and bench could also be reworked, according to Gurnick. Though we've already heard that the skipper will return, the remainder of the openings just noted could be filled in any number of ways.

Quick Hits: Cardinals, Lovullo, McCann, Fister

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The Cardinals clinched the 19th NL pennant in franchise history (and fourth in the last 10 seasons) with tonight's 9-0 rout of the Dodgers in Game Six of the NLCS.  Carlos Beltran continued his postseason dominance with a 3-for-4 night while NLCS MVP Michael Wacha threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball to continue his stunning late-season run.  Here are some notes from around the league…

  • The Cardinals' peerless developmental system has unearthed many late-round draft picks who are currently playing key roles for the NL champions, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes, as former St. Louis scouting director (and current Astros GM) Jeff Luhnow describes how the club found some of those unheralded players.  Heyman notes that the Cards' success is a good sign for the Astros, who hope Luhnow can duplicate that farm system in Houston.
  • The Cubs are interested in interviewing Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo for their manager position, sources tell Patrick Mooney and Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago.  Lovullo shares some Boston ties with Theo Epstein, as Lovullo managed the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox in 2010.  Lovullo has been linked to managerial jobs in the past and was cited as a candidate for the Mariners job earlier today.
  • If Braves catcher Brian McCann receives a $100MM contract in free agency, ESPN's Dan Szymborski (Insider subscription required) projects that such a contract will be an albatross for the signing team.
  • Doug Fister is the best candidate for a multiyear extension from the Tigers this offseason, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press opines.  Sharp suggests that the Tigers should offer Fister a four-year, $40MM deal but I'd argue that such a contract would be very team-friendly.  MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects Fister will earn $6.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter, so he could hit the $10MM average annual value threshold through arbitration alone in the 2014-15 offseason.  If Fister keeps pitching as he has since coming to Detroit, it will cost much more to buy out two free agent years.
  • The Dodgers need to make five moves, ESPN's Jim Bowden writes, in order to improve themselves in 2014 and perhaps take the next step into the World Series.
  • Also from Bowden, he lists four of the so-called "immovable" contracts in baseball have at least a somewhat likely possibility of being traded, while also citing five contracts that are indeed virtually impossible to be moved.  ESPN Insider subscriptions are required to read these two Bowden pieces.

NL East Notes: Mets, Abreu, Marlins, Nats, Baker

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The Mets were said to be intrigued by Jose Dariel Abreu's power but ultimately, they weren't one of the finalists for him and they weren't the team to sign him.  Why didn't GM Sandy Alderson take the plunge?  The Mets figure that they have first base covered between Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and Josh Satin with possible support from Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The Mets weren't the only team in their division intrigued by the Serie Nacional star, however.  Here's more out of the NL East..

  • The Marlins were among the finalists for the Cuban slugger, but they bowed out of the bidding when it went north of $60MM, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.  The Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, and Giants were also said to be among the clubs in the mix this week.
  • The Nationals had interest in Abreu, but the dollar amount got "crazy" in their view, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (Twitter link). 
  • Dusty Baker isn't expected to be a candidate for the Nationals' managerial job, Kilgore tweets.  Baker contacted GM Mike Rizzo last week about his interest in the position but there doesn't seem to be any interest on Washington's end.
  • A talent evaluator with knowledge of the Nationals' manager search tells ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link) that he would be shocked if Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams isn't hired.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren recognizes that he needs to add experience to his rotation, writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman.  Atlanta considered making a play for Jake Peavy at the trade deadline but those thoughts quickly fizzled when it became apparent that they didn't have the pieces necessary to close that deal.
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