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Braves Rumors

Rosenthal On Moneyball

By Tim Dierkes | September 21, 2011 at 1:24pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports spoke to a slew of top executives about Moneyball, with the movie coming out Friday.  Here are a few highlights.

  • Executives Dave Dombrowski (Tigers) and Mark Shapiro (Indians) agree that the stark line drawn by the 2003 book between scouting and statistics is not present today.  I've yet to find a baseball executive who doesn't prefer a blend.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman admits that the Red Sox "were having a great deal of success with players of lesser ability," adding, "I studied what they were doing to some degree, adjusted accordingly, brought the Yankees up to speed, brought us into the 21st century."
  • Shapiro, president of the Indians, expects further dominance of big-market teams in the next five to seven years.  He added, "That doesn’t preclude small-market teams from winning. But they’re going to go in and out, go through cycles of winning, then violently remaking their rosters." 
  • Paul DePodesta told Rosenthal he thinks the explosion of information in baseball would have happened without Moneyball, but Cashman and Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. noted that they were pleased to see Oakland's methods revealed in the book.
  • Braves president John Schuerholz doesn't think so-called Moneyball teams have been successful, saying, "I think everyone looked and I don’t think many considered it a better mousetrap. You look at the won-loss records of the teams that adopted and the teams that didn’t, I don’t think you’ll find much of a difference in the impact."
  • Brewers GM Doug Melvin is losing some faith, based on "some bad experiences with possible deals that I might have made based off numbers."
  • Athletics GM Billy Beane believes injuries represent a current opportunity, if a team can create an advantage in prevention and treatment.  DePodesta noted that inefficiencies arise every five or six years, when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Cleveland Guardians Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees Oakland Athletics

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Pirates Acquire Eliecer Cardenas

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 20, 2011 at 9:22pm CDT

The Pirates announced that they have acquired right-hander Eliecer Cardenas from the Braves to complete the deal that sent Matt Diaz back to Atlanta last month. The Braves acquired Diaz from Pittsburgh for a player to be named on August 31st, the last day for teams to add players who are eligible for the postseason.

Cardenas, 23, reached Double-A this year, though he spent most of his season at Class A. The Dominican pitched 59 2/3 total innings, all in relief, and posted a 2.11 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9 (his ERA with Class A Lynchburg was 0.79). The Braves selected Cardenas from the Twins in the minor league phase of last winter's Rule 5 draft.

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Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

By Tim Dierkes | September 20, 2011 at 8:03am CDT

The Braves are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

  • First time: None
  • Second time: Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Eric O'Flaherty
  • Third time: Michael Bourn, Peter Moylan

Moylan had back surgery in May and returned in September, he'll have a low innings total for 2011.  That should hold his salary at $2MM, and I think the Braves will retain him assuming they consider him healthy.

We've got Bourn down for a raise of nearly $3MM, up to $7.2MM.  Jurrjens projects for a fairly modest raise to $5.1MM.  He's tallied fewer than 300 innings over the last two seasons, and that hurts his arbitration earnings.  Prado is looking at about $4.4MM and O'Flaherty could get $2.4MM.

Our total for the Braves' five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM.  Assuming Eric Hinske's option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's only about $3MM below this year's Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade. 

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

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Arbitration Eligibles Atlanta Braves

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Quick Hits: Clippard, Storen, Ellsbury, Braves

By Mark Polishuk | September 15, 2011 at 10:59pm CDT

B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchman all homered for the Rays tonight as Tampa Bay defeated Boston, 9-2, in the opener of a big four-game series.  The Red Sox now have just a three-game lead over the Rays (and a four-game lead over the idle Angels) for the AL Wild Card.

Some notes from around the league….

  • If Drew Storen is traded, Tyler Clippard shouldn't become the Nationals' closer since he's proven to be invaluable as the team's go-to reliever, argues Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com.  It could be a moot point, though, since Goessling says it's "unlikely" that the Nats deal Storen.
  • The Rays were the first team to discover Jacoby Ellsbury, drafting him in the 23rd round of the 2002 draft.  Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal talks to the scouts who pushed for Tampa Bay to pick Ellsbury, who instead decided to attend Oregon State.
  • Frank Wren tells David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that no decision has been made about Alex Gonzalez's future with the Braves, but both the club and the shortstop sound open to Gonzalez returning in 2012.  Gonzalez is popular in the clubhouse and would be an ideal bridge at shortstop to prospect Tyler Pastornicky.
  • Mike Newman of Fangraphs profiles Braves minor league left-hander Ronan Pacheco, who "is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss."
  • Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps this week's minor league transactions.
  • David DeJesus "appears the least likely to return" of the Athletics' three free agent outfielders, writes MLB.com's Jane Lee.  Josh Willingham and Coco Crisp are also free agents this winter and Willingham said earlier today that he would like to stay with Oakland.
  • Angels GM Tony Reagins tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he doesn't regret giving Bobby Abreu the $9MM option for 2012 that vested in July.
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Oakland Athletics Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals Alex Gonzalez Bobby Abreu David DeJesus Drew Storen Jacoby Ellsbury Tyler Clippard

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GM Candidate: John Coppolella

By Tim Dierkes | September 15, 2011 at 7:35am CDT

MLBTR’s list of general manager candidates introduced the MLB executives who were identified by their peers as potential Major League GMs. We’re now going to bring you closer to the candidates with a series of pieces.

It's time to get acquainted with Braves director of professional scouting John Coppolella.  John worked his way from the ground up in baseball, landing an unpaid internship with the Lake Elsinore Storm back in 1997.  By the time John graduated from Notre Dame he had an Angels internship in his pocket as well, and that led to a couple of positions with the Yankees.  John joined the Braves' front office five years ago and currently has a hand in player evaluations, acquisitions, and contracts.  

I recently exchanged emails with John covering a wide range of topics, many of which follow up on comments he made in a Baseball Prospectus chat last month.

Which people have served as mentors for you in baseball?

At the Yankees it was Brian Cashman, Mark Newman, Kim Ng, Damon Oppenheimer, Gordon Blakeley, and Billy Connors.  Damon taught me a lot about scouting and got me to spend less time on the computer and more time in the stands.  At the Braves it was and continues to be John Schuerholz, Frank Wren, Bruce Manno, Jim Fregosi, and Paul Snyder.  I consider John to be the best GM in the history of the game while Frank and Bruce are extremely bright and hard-working leaders who have helped me grow and provided me with opportunities.

How has your job description changed with the promotion to director of professional scouting?

Not at all.  Like Frank said it was more a case of having my title match my job description.  I still continue to lead our analytics department, statistical efforts, and arbitration research, but the most important work I do is with our scouts.  All of that work ties in with waivers, free agency signings, etc, and helps me assist Frank and Bruce in all facets of baseball operations.

You've called the current arbitration system "terrible."  Can you elaborate?

It’s a flawed system that leaves both parties unhappy.  I’ve done dozens of deals and don’t feel great about any of them, but I feel even worse about the process.  A couple of years ago Bruce and I were getting ready to pull two of our players out of big league spring training so we could fly them across the country to Phoenix in order for them to attend a hearing where they would hear us berate their performances in an effort to take money out of their pockets.  The cases got settled, but neither player is still in the Braves organization.

Assuming the current arbitration system stays in place, do you envision a day, perhaps five years from now, when advanced statistics will help one side win a hearing?

Arbitration is a complete crapshoot.  Either side – club or player – could make a compelling case and still lose based upon the whims of an arbitration panel that knows very little about baseball.

Do you have any ideas on changes that could eliminate the manuevering some teams do to prevent top prospects from getting Super Two status?

I don’t think a perfect system exists.  I would be lying if I said I didn’t think some clubs tried to prevent prospects from getting Super Two status, but I think it’s overstated.  Teams need to win games, otherwise the management team holding these players back will themselves be held accountable.  We all need to win and I know at the Braves we have never held somebody back because it might save us a few million dollars a few years down the line.

You recently mentioned Brooks Conrad, Jose Constanza, Eric O'Flaherty, and Cristian Martinez as minor league signings/waiver claims of which you're most proud.  Can you elaborate?

All of these waiver claims and minor league signings make me proud because it shows the great work our scouts are doing for the Braves.  A week ago we closed out a doubleheader sweep of the Mets in New York with Cristhian Martinez, Eric O’Flaherty, and Anthony Varvaro, all three of whom were claimed off waivers.  Dom Chiti and Jeff Wren pushed hard for Martinez.  Fregosi and Dick Balderson pushed hard for O’Flaherty and Varvaro.  Tim Conroy pushed hard for Constanza.  All of us talk about these players and Frank makes the final decision, but we are all part of the process, and I feel like we have had more success in these markets than any other team in baseball.

You've mentioned how the next Cubs GM will be entering a challenging situation.  What would be your approach to fixing the club?  Do you think the Cubs should use 2012 as a rebuilding year, despite the size of their fan base?

I don’t feel comfortable commenting on how other clubs should approach the construction of their club.  Our focus at the Braves is on getting into the playoffs, advancing as far as possible, and putting together another great club for 2012.

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2011 GM Candidates Atlanta Braves

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Quick Hits: Konerko, Cameron, Rockies

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 13, 2011 at 9:03pm CDT

Congratulations to Tim Wakefield, who won his 200th career game tonight. Here are this evening's links, starting with updates on two players who were traded for one another 13 years ago…

  • White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he might retire after 2013, when his current contract expires. The 35-year-old has a terrific .308/.395/.528 line with 29 homers in the first season of the three-year, $37.5MM deal he signed last offseason.
  • The Marlins released Mike Cameron because of conduct detrimental to the team, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. 
  • The Braves have increased the responsibilities of three front office members following the departure of director of player personnel Kurt Kemp, according to Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Assistant GM Bruce Manno will oversee player development, Ronnie Richardson was promoted to director of minor league operations and John Coppolella was promoted to director of professional scouting.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post can see the Rockies pursuing Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham this offseason (Twitter links). 
  • Renck also suggests Jason Hammel is available. Hammel's strikeout rate (5.0 K/9) and ground ball rate (43.5%) dropped this season, while his ERA (4.91) and walk rate (3.7 BB/9) rose, so his trade value is considerably lower than it would have been last winter. The 29-year-old is under contract for $4.75MM in 2012.
  • Fernando Rodney told Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com that he would have liked more chances to close with the Angels this year. The right-hander will look to sign with a team that can provide him with more regular work when his two-year contract expires after the season.
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Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins Fernando Rodney Jason Hammel Josh Willingham Michael Cuddyer Mike Cameron Paul Konerko

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NL East Notes: Nationals, Beato, Braves

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 12, 2011 at 5:50pm CDT

Ruben Amaro Jr. of the Phillies (#2) and Frank Wren of the Braves (#9) both make Jon Heyman's list of top GMs of the year at SI.com. Here are the latest notes from the NL East…

  • Davey Johnson will return as the Nationals' manager in 2012 unless he changes his mind, Heyman reports. The team is required to conduct a full offseason search, however.
  • Former Mets GM Omar Minaya expects to join a new team before the Winter Meetings, according to Heyman, who suggests the Indians and Rays are possibilities.
  • As Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com explains, Rule 5 pick Pedro Beato is destined to finish the season with the Mets and become the team's official property. 
  • The Braves' rotation is limping to the finish line, as Jon Paul Morosi writes at FOXSports.com. Atlanta probably didn't expect Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado to start consecutive games in a pennant race.
  • I examined the free agent stock of Marlins starter Javier Vazquez earlier today.
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Atlanta’s Starting Pitching Depth

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 7, 2011 at 10:35pm CDT

The Braves blew a late-inning lead before losing a painful game to the Phillies tonight, but if Atlanta goes on to win in the playoffs this year, their bullpen will probably be a major reason for their success. The Braves’ late inning trio of Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel is as good as it gets.

Brandon Beachy

Health permitting, the three relievers figure to return to Atlanta in 2012, but the same can’t necessarily be said for the Braves’ starting corps. Every one of the eight pitchers who has started a game for the Braves in 2011 is under team control next year and with a trio of MLB-ready arms entering the discussion for big league rotation spots, it won’t be surprising if the Braves hear an offer or two for their surplus arms.

Before we get too carried away with assumptions about health, it’s important to note that two Braves starters are on the disabled list and another one is dealing with an injury. Kris Medlen hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery last August and won’t be ready before 2012. Tommy Hanson is also on the disabled list (shoulder) and Jair Jurrjens (knee) is banged up as well.

Despite those injuries, the Braves have a full rotation: Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Brandon Beachy (pictured), Mike Minor and Randall Delgado. Top prospects Arodys Vizcaino and Julio Teheran (who will start one of tomorrow’s games) also represent viable rotation options for manager Fredi Gonzalez.

All told, the Braves have nine options. Hudson, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, Beachy and Minor have all had extended looks in the rotation this year, Teheran, Delgado and Vizcaino spent most of the 2011 season in the minors and Medlen, a wild card heading into 2012, hasn’t pitched at all. 

Not only do the Braves have nine pitchers around in 2012, most of them are under team control in 2013 (Lowe’s contract expires after next season and the Braves have a $9MM club option for Hudson in ’13). This group isn’t going anywhere.

As unusual as it is for a team to have too much pitching, this Braves team may find themselves with extra arms over the winter. Unlike most teams, however, the Braves already have the main components of their roster in place for 2012. They won’t have many obvious holes to address over the winter.

Yet the Braves aren’t set at every position – shortstop Alex Gonzalez hits free agency and Martin Prado hasn't shown the on-base skills or power you'd expect from a left fielder. If the Braves decide not to retain the slick-fielding Gonzalez and opt to move Prado back into a utility role, they could have holes at shortstop and left field (assuming they don’t view Jose Constanza as a permanent solution). 

The Braves are a playoff-caliber team and they seem poised to contend in 2012, but significant needs could emerge within a month or two. Wren avoided last year's free agent frenzy and if he hopes to do the same this offseason without ignoring possible weaknesses, he could make the organization's pitching depth available in trades.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

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Atlanta Braves Arodys Vizcaino Brandon Beachy Derek Lowe Jair Jurrjens Julio Teheran Mike Minor Randall Delgado Tim Hudson Tommy Hanson

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NL East Front Office Notes: LaMar, Phillies, Marlins

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 6, 2011 at 9:00pm CDT

The Phillies announced that assistant GM of player development and scouting Chuck LaMar has resigned. LaMar, the Devil Rays' first GM, joined the Phillies in 2007 and became assistant GM in 2008. Here's the latest on the Phillies and other front office notes from their division…

  • Chipper Jones told Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com that the acquisitions of Hunter Pence and Cliff Lee should make Ruben Amaro Jr. of the Phillies an executive of the year candidate. "When he swings moves like those, he throws a gut punch at everyone in the division," Jones said.
  • As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports predicted, the Marlins shook up their front office. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com notes that the Marlins reassigned Jim Fleming, who is now a special assistant to president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. The Marlins also made former scouting director Stan Meek the VP of scouting and hired Marty Scott as VP of player development.
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Quick Hits: Rizzo, Braves, Rowand, Pujols, Carrasco

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 2, 2011 at 10:30pm CDT

On this date 11 years ago, the Angels signed amateur free agent Ervin Santana. The right-hander recently reached the 200-inning plateau for the fourth time in his career and he has a 3.27 ERA to go along with his July no-hitter. Here are the latest links from around MLB…

  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is "definitely" on the Cubs' wish list for their vacant GM position, reports Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post. Rizzo shot down any speculation about him leaving though, saying "there's nowhere I'd rather be than the Washington Nationals right now," and "this is the place I need to be."
  • MLB.com's Mark Bowman reports (on Twitter) that Kurt Kemp has stepped down as Braves' director of player development to pursue other opportunities.
  • Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com suggests that the Phillies could have interest in the recently designated for assignment Aaron Rowand after he clears waivers. He would not be eligible for postseason play, but Salisbury notes the team has had a "longstanding interest" in bringing Rowand back after losing him to the Giants in free agency.
  • In a piece for Grantland.com, Jonah Keri wonders if losing Albert Pujols to the free agency would really be that bad for the Cardinals.
  • Indians minor leaguer Hector Rondon told Carlos Alberto Zambrano of the Venezuelan paper Lider en Deportes that it appears that Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco will undergo Tommy John surgery. Rendon says the currently-disabled Carrasco told him of the upcoming operation. 
  • Meanwhile, Indians skipper Manny Acta told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that the team is stil exploring options for Carrasco's injured elbow (Twitter link). He acknowledged that Tommy John surgery was a possibility, but it is not a certainty at this point.
  • Nate Mink of MLB.com explains that Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg showed he's ready for the Major Leagues in his final minor league rehab start. 
  • Doug Miller of MLB.com shows how so many former members of Mike Scioscia's coaching staff – Joe Maddon, Bud Black and Ron Roenicke – have gone on to become MLB managers. 
  • It appears that first base prospect Angel Villalona will return to the Giants organization now that murder charges against him have been dismissed, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. The Giants expect to resolve a $5MM breach-of-contract lawsuit that Villalona filed against the team.
  • Former GM Jim Bowden introduces us to the agents behind this offseason's big-name free agents in a must-read piece for ESPN. If you're interested in agents, be sure to check out our Agency Database.
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