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MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

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National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

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Braves Outright Jay Flaa

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The Braves announced they’re passed reliever Jay Flaa through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A Gwinnett. The 29-year-old doesn’t have the requisite service time to reject an outright assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization.

Flaa is a longtime Orioles farmhand who made his big league debut with Baltimore earlier this year. The O’s waived him after one appearance, though, and the Braves claimed him in mid-May. He’s spent the majority of his Braves tenure with Gwinnett, appearing in 13 games and totaling 14 innings of relief. Flaa’s allowed seven runs (six earned) with the Stripers, striking out a stellar 22 hitters (33.3%) but issuing an alarming 10 unintentional walks (15.4%).

Over parts of two Triple-A seasons, Flaa has pitched to a 5.22 ERA with a 21.1% strikeout rate and a 12% walk percentage. He’ll serve as high minors right-handed depth for an Atlanta bullpen that has disappointed this season. The Braves now have a pair of vacancies on their 40-man roster after placing Ronald Acuña Jr. on the 60-day injured list over the weekend.

Ian Anderson Getting Shoulder Examined

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The Braves don’t need any more injuries than they already have, but right-hander Ian Anderson told reporters after his latest start that he felt some tightness in his shoulder that he’s going to have checked out (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Manager Brian Snitker suggested to reporters that Anderson could land on the injured list after undergoing some tests tomorrow.

Anderson, 23, hasn’t matched his brilliant rookie season from 2020, but he’s still given the Braves 96 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate and a 9.7 percent walk rate. Those 96 frames rank second on the team behind Charlie Morton, the team’s only other starter who has not yet required an IL stint in 2021. Anderson walked a career-worst five batters in his most recent outing and has walked 15.2 percent of his opponents through three July starts — nearly double the 8.6 percent rate he’d recorded across 15 prior starts. He’s also tossed three wild pitches in July after throwing only two all season prior.

The rotation was expected to be a strength for the Braves heading into the season, but it’s been a more middle-of-the-pack unit, ranking 14th in ERA (4.05), 11th in innings pitched (461 2/3), 13th in strikeout percentage (23.9) and 19th in walk rate (8.4 percent). Injuries have been a major factor in those rankings and in the Braves’ lackluster showing overall. As with any team that is slowed by injury woes, health (or lack thereof) isn’t the sole factor, but it’s hard to overlook the Braves’ mounting number of issues.

Atlanta won’t get a single inning out of Mike Soroka in 2021 and recently lost superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to a torn ACL. Starting catcher Travis d’Arnaud went down early with a torn ligament in his thumb. Lefty Max Fried has twice landed on the IL (hamstring strain, blister), and many of the team’s promising young arms are banged up as well. Righty Huascar Ynoa looked to be on his way to a breakout — at least until he broke his hand after punching the dugout bench following a poor outing. Twenty-five-year-old hurlers Tucker Davidson (forearm) and Touki Toussaint (shoulder) are both on the 60-day IL, too.

The end result is a 44-45 record and a third-place standing in the division through the season’s first half. Thankfully for the Braves, the rest of the division is also floundering for various reasons, leaving them just four games back from the lead. That leaves the team a chance to fight back into the mix, although losing Soroka and Acuna for the season are potentially backbreaking injuries that’ll make it extra difficult to right the ship. And with the NL West being stacked up with three of the game’s best records, the Braves are seven back in the Wild Card race, which makes their cleanest path to the playoffs a divisional crown.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Tears Right ACL, Will Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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JULY 11: Acuna was placed on the 60-day injured list. Utilityman Johan Camargo has been recalled to take his place on the active roster. The Braves will leave a vacancy on the 40-man roster for now.

JULY 10, 10:20PM: The worst-case scenario has occurred, as the Braves announced that Acuna suffered “a complete tear of his right ACL” and will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery.  ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan estimates a recovery timeline of 9-10 months for Acuna, so the outfielder will very likely miss time at the start of the 2022 campaign.

JULY 10, 5:13PM: Braves star Ronald Acuna Jr. had to be carted off the field after suffering an apparent injury to his right leg or knee in today’s game against the Marlins.  Acuna suffered the injury while trying to make a jumping catch of a Jazz Chisholm fly ball that instead went for an inside-the-park homer.  Acuna attempted to walk off the field under his own power, but he had to halt midway to the dugout, and was visibly in pain as he sat on the ground.

More will be known about Acuna’s status after the game, but at first glance it certainly looks like a potential season-ending injury for the superstar outfielder.  This is actually the fourth time Acuna has had to make an early exit from a game this season due to an injury, but while those previous instances resulted in just a couple of missed games, today’s injury appears to be much more serious in scope.

Acuna is enjoying yet another huge all-around season, one that earned him a starting nod on the NL All-Star team.  The 23-year-old has hit .283/.394/.596 with 24 home runs over 360 plate appearances, along with 17 stolen bases and an NL-leading 72 runs scored.  Only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. had accumulated more fWAR this season than Acuna’s 3.9 mark, further cementing his status as one of the sport’s brightest talents.

Unfortunately, it now seems like Acuna’s fourth MLB season will be at least put on hold, and quite possibly ended altogether.  It isn’t a reach to say that the Braves’ fate is tied to Acuna, and if he is indeed facing a long-term absence, the team might decide to throw in the towel and become sellers at the July 30 trade deadline.  Atlanta entered today’s play 4.5 games behind the Mets for first place in the NL East, but the Braves have only a 43-44 record, and (according to Fangraphs) a 14.8% chance of reaching the postseason.

Soroka Undergoes Successful Surgery

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  • Braves right-hander Mike Soroka recently underwent successful surgery to repair a torn Achilles for the second time since he last appeared in the Majors, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). It was Soroka’s third surgery in total. Soroka figures to be out until at least July 2022, though an official timetable for his recovery has not yet been made public.

Braves Option William Contreras, Select Jonathan Lucroy

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The Braves made a change behind the plate, optioning catcher William Contreras to Triple-A and selecting the contract of veteran backstop Jonathan Lucroy.  To create 40-man roster space for Lucroy, southpaw Grant Dayton was moved to the 60-day injured list.

With Travis d’Arnaud injured for much of the season and not expected back until August, the Braves have gotten sub-replacement level production from the catching position this season, ranking 29th of 30 teams in catcher bWAR.  Contreras initially looked good after being called up from Triple-A, but his bat cooled off, leaving the 23-year-old with a modest .204/.278/.387 slash line and seven home runs in 158 plate appearances.

It’s probably safe to assume that Contreras will be recalled at some point this season, perhaps as soon as he gets his timing back and strings together some good games at the plate for Triple-A Gwinnett.  In the interim, Atlanta will make do at catcher with the veteran combo of Lucroy and Kevan Smith, and Alex Jackson is also on a rehab assignment after missing two months with a strained hamstring and an injured finger.

Lucroy inked a minor league deal with the Braves in May, about a month after he chose free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Nationals’ alternate training site.  Lucroy appeared in five games with Washington this season and one game with the Red Sox in 2020, and it has now been several seasons since the former All-Star has been a significant force in a lineup.

Until Jackson is ready to return, Lucroy and Smith could essentially be competing to see who remains on the MLB roster, though Atlanta could also opt to keep the two veterans on hand and keep the less-experienced Jackson at Triple-A.  While d’Arnaud’s return should theoretically stabilize matters, the Braves could certainly look to acquire catching help at the trade deadline, adding some depth in case d’Arnaud has a setback.

Braves Recall Orlando Arcia

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The Braves announced they’ve recalled Orlando Arcia from Triple-A Gwinnett. Left-hander Kyle Muller was optioned out last night to clear active roster space.

Arcia will be making his team debut when he first appears in a game. Atlanta acquired him from the Brewers for relievers Patrick Weigel and Chad Sobotka in early April but immediately optioned him. That wasn’t unreasonable; while Arcia was a one-time top prospect, he never developed the way the Brewers had hoped. Between 2018-21, the right-handed hitting infielder hit just .232/.282/.344 (64 wRC+) across 1112 plate appearances. Arcia was coming off a career-best 2020, but his .260/.317/.416 line last year was still a tad worse than league average.

To his credit, Arcia has looked completely rejuvenated since changing organizations. The 26-year-old has hit .303/.380/.552 over 229 trips to the plate with the Stripers. He’s popped thirteen home runs and compiled an equal number of walks and strikeouts (25 apiece). Arcia’s 145 wRC+ ranks tenth among the 79 Triple-A East hitters to tally at least 150 plate appearances.

Arcia will get another chance to try to carry over that success against big league arms. A longtime shortstop in Milwaukee, he’s also seen action at third base and in left field this season in preparation for a potential multi-positional role off the bench.

Braves Reinstate Max Fried, Option Sean Newcomb

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The Braves have reinstated Max Fried from the injured list and optioned Sean Newcomb to Triple-A, the team announced.

It’s been a season of false starts so far for Fried, whose has twice been on the injured list, once with a hamstring strain and more recently with a blister. Nevertheless, he’s managed to make 11 starts, pitching to a 4.21 ERA/3.89 FIP across 57 2/3 innings. The Braves’ rotation has been a strength, tying for the Majors’ lead in fWAR this month with 3.1 fWAR.

He will not, unfortunately, help the offense. In the past month, the Braves’ bats rank 20th with a 95 wRC+. Despite their struggles the Braves are just 5 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL East. With Fried alongside Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, Kyle Muller, and Ian Anderson, the rotation will look to lead the Braves until their offense finds its way.

As for Newcomb, the 28-year-old hasn’t had the bottom line results he desires with a 5.82 ERA in 21 2/3 innings, though a 3.98 FIP suggests there could be smoother sailing ahead. Fact is, Newcomb needs to find his command after posting a far-too-high 18.5 percent walk rate.

Mike Soroka To Undergo Season-Ending Achilles Surgery

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11:53AM: While an official recovery timeline won’t be known until after the surgery, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter) estimates that Soroka will be out for a full year, until July 2022.

11:11AM: Braves right-hander Mike Soroka will undergo surgery to fix a torn Achilles tendon, the team announced (Twitter links).  This will be the second season-ending Achilles procedure in as many years for Soroka, as according to the Braves’ announcement, he suffered “a complete re-tear of the tendon” while walking to the team’s clubhouse on Thursday.

It is another brutal turn of events for Soroka, who already underwent exploratory surgery on his Achilles back in May.  Atlanta manager Brian Snitker initially thought Soroka would be done for the season after that surgery, though more recent reports had the team hopeful that the righty could return to action some time in August.

The 23-year-old Soroka was a breakout star of the 2019 season, posting a 2.68 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, and 51.2% grounder rate over 174 2/3 innings en route to finishing second in NL Rookie Of The Year voting and sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting.  Just when it seemed as though Soroka had established himself as one of baseball’s top young arms, however, he tore his Achilles while covering first base on a fielding play during a game on August 3, 2020, ending his season after just three starts.

Between some shoulder inflammation and the May surgery, Soroka hasn’t pitched since that fateful August 3 game, and in the wake of these repeated major Achilles injuries, it is fair to wonder just when he might able to get back to action.  A return by Opening Day 2022 doesn’t seem likely, as an increased amount of rehab and recovery will undoubtedly be required after this second surgery.

Soroka is under team control through the 2024 season, as he still has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining due to earning Super Two status.  Despite tossing only 13 2/3 innings in 2020, Soroka still won an arbitration case with the Braves this past offseason, earning him a $2.8MM salary for 2021 in his first time through the arb process.  He’ll be projected to earn that same salary for 2022, so there isn’t much of a chance Atlanta would non-tender Soroka given the low price tag and his big upside if he is able to stay healthy.

In the shorter term, the Braves now know they won’t be getting Soroka back as a late-season rotation boost.  Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, and Drew Smyly comprise Atlanta’s current top three, with Max Fried expected to return this week from a blister.  Huascar Ynoa (broken hand) and Tucker Davidson (forearm inflammation) are both on the 60-day IL and won’t be back until August, while the likes of Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Kyle Muller haven’t distinguished themselves in starting roles.  It’s safe to assume Atlanta was looking for starting pitching help even prior to today’s news about Soroka, though with a 36-39 record, the Braves will have to start stringing together some wins over the next month to ensure that they’ll be buyers whatsoever at the trade deadline.

Braves Select Jesse Chavez, Tanner Roark

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5:58PM: The Braves officially announced the roster moves.

5:50PM: Tanner Roark’s contract has also been selected, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports (Twitter link).  Roark inked a minor league deal with Atlanta shortly after the Blue Jays released him in early May.  The veteran righty is looking for a fresh start after posting a 6.75 ERA over 54 2/3 innings for Toronto since the start of the 2020 season.  In corresponding moves, Atlanta optioned right-handers Kyle Wright and Ty Tice to Triple-A, while catcher Alex Jackson and lefty Tucker Davidson were moved to the 60-day IL to create space for Chavez and Roark on the 40-man roster.

12:26PM: The Braves will select the contract of right-hander Jesse Chavez to start a bullpen game against the Reds tonight, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Chavez signed a minor league pact with the Braves back in April.

It was already known that Atlanta would be going with a bullpen game Thursday after recently placing Max Fried on the injured list due to a blister and playing a pair of doubleheaders this week. The Braves have yet to formally announce the move themselves, though that announcement — and a corresponding 40-man roster move — figures to come along shortly.

Chavez, 37, is a 13-year Major League veteran who’ll now be in his second stint as a member of the Braves. He pitched in 28 games for Atlanta back in 2010 when he was still working to solidify himself as a viable big league arm. Things didn’t pan out the first time around, but Chavez has gone on to have a solid career as a well-traveled swingman. From 2013-19, he split time between the A’s, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Angels, Rangers and Cubs, working to a combined 4.12 ERA in 738 2/3 innings (77 starts, 230 relief outings).

The 2020 season was an ugly one for Chavez, who was tagged for 13 runs in 17 innings out of the Rangers’ bullpen. He’s bounced back with a strong showing for Triple-A Gwinnett in 2021, logging 20 innings of 2.25 ERA ball with a 27-to-8 K/BB ratio. He’s been particularly sharp of late, rattling off six straight shutout innings and punching out 11 of his past 22 opponents.

Chavez hasn’t thrown more than two innings or topped 35 pitches in any of his 13 appearances with Gwinnett this season, so it’s unlikely he’ll be tasked with pitching any more than three innings unless he makes particularly quick work of the Reds the first time through the order. Today’s outing figures to be a spot start, but Chavez has a solid overall track record in the Majors and could stick around to give the Braves some depth in the bullpen if he fares well.

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