Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Should The Reds Trade Any Of Their High-End Starters?
It wasn’t an encouraging start to the winter for Reds fans. After trading Tucker Barnhart and waiving Wade Miley in moves that amounted to little more than salary dumps, general manager Nick Krall famously spoke of “aligning … payroll to our resources.” That hinted at a lack of forthcoming additions, and indeed, the Reds have yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason.
That said, the Reds haven’t yet orchestrated a sell-off. Barnhart’s a well-respected veteran backstop, but Tyler Stephenson is ready to assume an everyday role. It’s harder to defend cutting Miley, controllable via $10MM club option and coming off a 163-inning, 3.37 ERA season. Yet the soft-tossing Miley is always walking a fine line relying on weak, ground-ball contact. If his run prevention regresses closer to last season’s 4.52 SIERA, that option price would be more reasonable than an immense bargain.
Krall predictably didn’t offer specifics about the franchise’s payroll target for 2022. Currently, they’re projected for $115MM in player expenditures, including estimated salaries for arbitration-eligible players (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That’s a touch shy of last year’s season-opening $122MM mark (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Perhaps the Reds have already “aligned” their payroll by parting with Barnhart and Miley and letting Nick Castellanos hit free agency.
If the Reds were either looking to cut costs or add some young talent to the organization, the most straightforward way to do so would be by further subtracting from the rotation. Cincinnati’s top three starters — Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray — are all under club control through 2023 (assuming free agency trajectory isn’t affected by the new collective bargaining agreement). And unlike some other Reds with notable salaries (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez) whom the Reds might want to trade, the rotation members should be in high demand around the league.
Luis Castillo
Castillo, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season, tossed 187 2/3 innings with a 3.98 ERA last year. That was his highest mark in three years, but the 29-year-old found his footing after a tough start. He posted a 2.73 ERA from June onwards, with his generally excellent combination of strikeouts (26%) and grounders (59.9%).
Simply ignoring the first two months of the season, when Castillo had an awful 7.22 ERA and subpar 19.3% strikeout percentage, is obviously simplistic. Yet the right-hander’s three-year track record is excellent, and he possesses a fantastic arsenal. Owner of one of baseball’s best changeups and a fastball that averages north of 97 MPH, Castillo seems the most likely of the Reds starters to offer top-of-the-rotation production over the next two years. He’s been the subject of trade rumors in each of the last two offseasons, but reports about the team’s willingness to make him available have varied.
Tyler Mahle
As with Castillo, it’s not clear how willing the Reds seem to be to trade Mahle. He hasn’t been the subject of as many rumors as his top rotation mates this winter. Yet there’d be plenty of appeal if Cincinnati were amenable to moving him. At 27, he’s the youngest of the Reds top trio of starters. Projected for a $5.6MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration year, he’s likely to be the most affordable. And one could make the case he’s coming off the best 2021 campaign of the three.
Mahle’s 3.75 ERA was lower than either of Castillo’s or Gray’s marks. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk percentage bettered the others’ respective figures. He’s not the elite ground-ball guy those others are, but Mahle looks to have made the leap to quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons.
Mahle misses bats with both his mid-90s heater and his two secondary pitches — a cutter-slider and a split. The development of the latter offering has proven especially useful in helping the right-hander overcome platoon troubles, as he leans somewhat frequently on the split when facing left-handed batters. After giving up a massive .290/.384/.547 line when at a platoon disadvantage through his first three MLB seasons, he’s held southpaws to a pitiful .194/.280/.306 mark since the start of 2020.
Sonny Gray
Gray is playing out the 2022 campaign on a $10.667MM contract, and he’s controllable for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. That makes him the costliest of the Reds starters, yet it’s still an obvious bargain for a pitcher who has been as effective as Gray has since landing in Cincinnati.
The right-hander has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball marks in all three of his seasons with the Reds. Gray may not have quite as pristine of control as Castillo or Mahle possess, but his walk rates aren’t all that concerning. Last year’s 4.19 ERA is more fine than great, but he posted respective 2.87 and 3.70 marks over the two prior seasons. And the 32-year-old Gray was among the sport’s best pitchers at suppressing hard contact, with the Reds mediocre team defense perhaps explaining a bit of a gap between his actual ERA and estimators like FIP, SIERA and xERA — all of which pegged his performance between 3.25 and 3.99.
On the surface, Gray looks like the pitcher the Reds might be most willing to make available. Trading him would knock more money off the books than would a Castillo or Mahle deal, perhaps freeing some room for the front office to address needs in the outfield and/or bullpen. Yet Castillo or Mahle would probably pull stronger returns if they were moved. Trading Gray alone be something of a half-measure: not enough to bring in an influx of impact young talent, while further weakening a roster that finished marginally above .500 last season and has lost or is likely to lose both Miley and Castellanos.
Krall and his staff seem to be in a difficult spot, overseeing a roster that looks a bit shy of contention but without the financial backing to fix its most glaring deficiencies. How they choose to proceed with their trio of high-end starters is yet to be determined, but there’s a compelling argument to move any of the group, as well as a sound case for keeping the entire rotation intact. After all, with two years of control apiece, they should each still be in demand (barring injury) if the team is sputtering by next summer’s trade deadline.
We’ll let MLBTR readers weigh in on the situation. How should the Reds proceed coming out of the lockout?
(poll link for app users)
NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Burch Smith
The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced yesterday that they’ve signed right-hander Burch Smith. The 31-year-old elected minor league free agency at the end of the season after being outrighted off the A’s 40-man roster in September.
Smith has appeared in parts of five big league seasons, including each of the past four. He broke in with ten appearances for the 2013 Padres but didn’t make it back to the game’s highest level until 2018, when he tossed 78 innings as a Rule 5 draftee with the Royals. He managed just a 6.92 ERA that year, though, and he was cut loose at the end of the season.
The following winter, Smith latched on with the Brewers on a minor league pact. He cracked the MLB roster by May and spent a few months on the 40-man before being designated for assignment. He landed with the Giants on waivers, then was traded to the A’s over the offseason as part of an ultra-rare swap between Bay Area clubs. Smith spent two seasons with Oakland, tossing 12 innings of three-run ball during the abbreviated 2020 campaign but struggling to a 5.40 ERA over 43 1/3 innings last year.
Since returning to the majors in 2018, Smith owns a 5.78 ERA with a slightly below-average 19.9% strikeout rate across 154 2/3 innings. Until last season, though, he’d generated some decent swing-and-miss rates and he’s been quite stingy with walks over the past two years. Smith has worked exclusively as a reliever since 2018, but Lions’ general manager Hisanobu Watanabe indicated as part of the team’s press release that he’d be given an opportunity to land a spot in their starting rotation.
Dodgers Promote Brandon Gomes To General Manager
The Dodgers announced this afternoon that they’ve promoted Brandon Gomes from assistant general manager to general manager. The move solidifies Gomes as a key member of a Los Angeles front office that also includes senior vice president Josh Byrnes and is helmed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.
The move doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Gomes was mentioned as a candidate in the Mets search for a new front office leader earlier in the offseason, but reports out of New York fairly quickly suggested it likelier he would be promoted to Dodgers GM instead. (The Mets eventually landed on Billy Eppler). With Friedman still running the front office in L.A., Gomes’ promotion doesn’t come with the same level of roster control that landing the Mets job would have provided. Yet it affords him a notable step up in title and likely contains some form of pay bump for the 37-year-old to remain in a setting in which he’s obviously comfortable.
Gomes has climbed the front office ranks rather quickly over the past few years. The Massachusetts native began his pro career as a player in 2007, making his big league debut by May 2011. He spent the next four seasons as a middle relief option with the Rays. Tampa Bay outrighted Gomes off their 40-man roster following the 2015 campaign. After a minor league deal with the Cubs didn’t result in another big league opportunity, Gomes hung up his spikes and joined the Los Angeles front office. He reunited with Friedman — formerly Tampa Bay’s general manager — in Southern California.
Within a year, Gomes had ascended to director of player development. After a season in that role, he was promoted to AGM. Three years later, Gomes gets the nod as general manager, a notable step for the organization. With Friedman leading the charge as president of baseball ops, the Dodgers’ GM position has sat vacant in the three-plus years since Farhan Zaidi departed to become president of baseball operations with the archrival Giants.
By promoting Gomes to GM, the Dodgers could ward off interest among other clubs in poaching him, as the Mets apparently expressed this winter. Teams typically only allow their employees to interview elsewhere if a rival club is willing to offer a step up in title. A president of baseball ops or chief baseball officer position would qualify, but it’s unlikely the Dodgers would allow Gomes to assume a GM role — which, for most organizations, is now second in the front office hierarchy — with a new team.
MLBTR Poll: Where Will Seiya Suzuki Sign?
Last week, Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic wrote that Seiya Suzuki fielded interest from ten to twelve major league teams before the lockout. The identities of all those clubs aren’t known, but the Giants, Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees had all been tied to the NPB star in the past.
During his conversation with Baggarly, Suzuki also downplayed the possibility he’d return to Japan for another year because of concerns about the lockout. Whenever Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association do reach an accord on the next collective bargaining agreement, Suzuki will have twenty days to hammer out a deal with an MLB team under the terms of his unique cross-lockout posting experience.
One could argue Suzuki’s landing spot is tougher to peg than any other free agent’s. For one, different teams might have disparate evaluations on his projection. The broad consensus MLBTR received when speaking with various team personnel at the outset of the winter was that Suzuki projected as a well-rounded, productive everyday right fielder. Yet there’s likely more team-to-team variance on Suzuki’s outlook than there would be on those of players like Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, both of whom have lengthy MLB track records to evaluate.
Suzuki is also uncommonly young for a free agent. Having turned 27 years old in August, he should have a few seasons of peak performance ahead of him. That could open an opportunity for an immediate non-contender to jump into the bidding. Even if the club isn’t planning to compete next season, adding Suzuki could be a way for a team currently amidst a rebuild or reboot to proactively land a hopeful first-division regular for a season or two down the line.
Perhaps Suzuki’s asking price could help narrow down the field. There’s not been any indication what he and his representatives are targeting from a financial perspective. MLBTR forecasted a five-year, $55MM contract entering the offseason. That kind of deal could prove too costly for the most payroll-conscious clubs. Yet Baggarly indicated the low-payroll Rays are expected to be involved in Suzuki’s market, so team spending habits alone may not narrow down the field much.
For the purposes of this poll, let’s assume Suzuki makes the jump to MLB this offseason. What does the MLBTR readership think? Where will Suzuki begin his MLB career?
(poll link for app users)
Coco Crisp, Bill Mueller To Join Nationals’ Player Development Staff
Former big leaguers Coco Crisp and Bill Mueller are taking on roles in the Nationals player development department, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (on Twitter). Crisp is joining the organization as an outfield/baserunning coordinator, while Mueller will serve as the club’s quality control coordinator.
It’ll be the first affiliated ball post-playing gig for the 42-year-old Crisp. A switch-hitting outfielder, he suited up for the Indians, Red Sox, Royals and A’s over the course of a 15-year MLB playing career. He last appeared in the bigs with Cleveland during their 2016 pennant-winning season. The following July, Crisp signed on to coach high school baseball in Southern California, a role he’d hold for two seasons. He later worked on the A’s radio broadcast and managed in the inaugural season of the MLB draft league last year.
Mueller, meanwhile, played 11 seasons in the big leagues. He suited up with the Giants, Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers between 1996-2006, claiming a Silver Slugger award and winning the American League batting title with Boston in 2003. In his post-playing days, he spent some time as a scout, hitting coach and front office assistant with a few organizations — most recently working as the Cardinals’ assistant hitting coach between 2015-18.
In the wake of last summer’s sell-off, Nationals’ brass has spoken about their desire to bolster the scouting and player development realms amidst an organizational reset. (Dougherty covered the situation in a full piece last month). To further that effort, general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff are bringing aboard a pair of well-known longtime major leaguers to work with the club’s prospects.
CPBL’s Uni-President Lions Sign Wilin Rosario
Earlier this month, the Uni-President Lions of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League announced an agreement with catcher Wilin Rosario (h/t to the Taipei Times). The 32-year-old (33 in February) is best known in the United States for his five-year MLB run with the Rockies.
A right-handed hitter, Rosario broke into the majors as a September call-up in 2011. He assumed the primary role behind the dish in Colorado the following season, tallying 400+ plate appearances in each of the next three years. A bat-first backstop, Rosario provided above-average offensive numbers (even after accounting for Coors Field’s hitter-friendly nature), popping 20+ homers in each of his first two full campaigns.
By 2014, however, Rosario’s productivity at the plate tailed off, at which point his longstanding issues as a pitch framer and ball blocker became more notable. No other backstop was charged with more passed balls than Rosario (42) between 2012 and 2014. After a second consecutive subpar campaign with the bat as well, Colorado outrighted the Dominican Republic native off their 40-man roster.
Rosario hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since being cut loose by the Rox. He signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2016, re-signing there for 2017 as well. After a two-year stint with a monstrous .330/.390/.625 line, Rosario made the jump to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2018. He struggled to a .242/.285/.374 mark there but returned to affiliated ball on a minor league deal with the Twins in advance of the 2019 campaign.
Despite a decent showing at the plate with Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate, Rosario didn’t get a call to the majors that year. He didn’t play in 2020 but spent a bit of last season in the Mexican League. He’ll now make his first foray to playing in Taiwan, which will give him experience at the highest levels in each of MLB, the KBO, NPB, the Mexican League and the CPBL.
Brian DeLunas Passes Away
The University of Missouri announced this afternoon that pitching coach Brian DeLunas passed away last night at the age of 46. He had been battling kidney disease.
A Missouri native and co-founder of St. Louis-based training facility Premier Pitching and Performance, DeLunas returned to Columbia for his second stint as Tigers pitching coach last June. In between those two runs, he worked for parts of four seasons in the major leagues. Most notably, he spent the 2018-20 seasons with the Mariners. He served as Seattle’s bullpen coach in both 2018 and 2020 (working remotely during the latter season due to concerns regarding COVID-19 and his preexisting kidney condition), while he spent the 2019 campaign as the M’s director of pitching development/strategies. After DeLunas and the Mariners parted ways at the end of 2020, he spent some time with the Mets as a special projects coordinator before being hired by Mizzou.
“Words cannot describe how heartbroken we are in the loss of our friend, Brian DeLunas,” Tigers head baseball coach Steve Bieser said in a statement. “In the months since his return to Mizzou, he has made an indelible impact on our team through his love of the game and his players along with his inspirational courage off the field. Brian was a tremendous husband, father, brother and coach, and our hearts go out to Johannah, Rory, Maren and the entire DeLunas family as we ask everyone to keep them in your thoughts and prayers.”
MLBTR joins many others throughout the game in sending our condolences to DeLunas’ family, friends and loved ones.
Melky Cabrera Announces Retirement
Longtime major league outfielder Melky Cabrera announced his retirement this morning (h/t to Héctor Gómez of z 101). Cabrera last appeared in the majors in 2019 but had played winter ball in each of the past two years.
The announcement officially closes the book on Cabrera’s successful big league playing career. He broke into the majors with the Yankees halfway through the 2005 season, getting to the majors a bit before his 21st birthday. The switch-hitter emerged as a regular in the Bronx the following year, playing with the Yankees through their World Series-winning 2009 campaign.
The following offseason, New York traded Cabrera to the Braves. The Dominican Republic native struggled in Atlanta and was released after one year, but he bounced back after hooking on with the Royals the following season. After a solid year in Kansas City, he was traded to the Giants before the 2012 campaign. He’d only spend one year in the Bay Area as well, but that season proved to be the most productive of Cabrera’s career. He hit .346/.390/.516 across 501 plate appearances, earning his only All-Star nod in the process.
Down the stretch, however, Cabrera was suspended after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. That ban carried over into 2013, where he landed with the Blue Jays after signing a two-year deal over the winter. Cabrera struggled in the first season of that deal but bounced back with a very productive 2014 campaign. He proved a capable, high-contact bat for a good chunk of 30s, suiting up with the White Sox, Royals (for a second time), Indians and Pirates.
Cabrera’s run of productivity came to a close in 2019. Despite hitting .280 that year, his overall offensive output was 16 percentage points below the league average (by measure of wRC+) due to a lack of power and a minuscule 4.3% walk rate. Cabrera briefly caught on with the Mets in 2020 Summer Camp but was cut loose before the start of the season.
Altogether, Cabrera had a lengthy, impressive showing in the big leagues. He appeared in fifteen consecutive MLB seasons from 2005-19, donning the uniforms of eight different clubs. Over a bit more than 7,500 plate appearances, Cabrera hit .285/.334/.417, an overall slash line a hair above average by both wRC+ and OPS+. He hit 144 home runs, 383 doubles, drove in 854 runs and stole 101 bases. FanGraphs valued his career around 16 wins above replacement, while Baseball Reference pegged him around 21 wins. Cabrera tallied a bit more than $72MM in earnings, according to B-Ref. MLBTR congratulates the 37-year-old on a very fine run and wishes him the best in retirement.
Athletics Finalize Coaching Staff
A few weeks after naming Mark Kotsay manager, the A’s announced their 2022 coaching staff this afternoon. As previously reported, former Tigers and Angels skipper Brad Ausmus steps in as Kotsay’s bench coach. Meanwhile, last season’s hitting coach — Darren Bush — transitions to third base/run prevention coach. Third base coach had belonged to Kotsay before he was promoted to succeed Bob Melvin in the manager’s office.
Replacing Bush as the top hitting instructor is Tommy Everidge, who’s been promoted from the same role at Triple-A Las Vegas. It’ll be the first big league coaching job for the 38-year-old, who briefly appeared in the big leagues with the A’s back in 2009. He spent the bulk of the last decade coaching his way up the Oakland system.
Pairing with Everidge is Chris Cron, who’ll join the staff as assistant hitting coach. The father of Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron, Chris Cron logged some big league time in the early 1990’s and joins the A’s after a long run working with prospects in the Diamondbacks system. Previous assistant hitting coach Eric Martins will slide over to first base coach, with Mike Aldrete vacating that post to serve as quality control coach.
The pitching instruction tandem will remain in place. Pitching coach Scott Emerson is back for his fifth full season in the role. Marcus Jensen, who (along with Bush) drew some consideration in the A’s managerial search this winter, returns to last season’s position as bullpen coach.
