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Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds In 2025

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The Reds made an unsuccessful effort at locking up Elly De La Cruz last spring. While details were sparse at the time, president of baseball operations Nick Krall revealed today the team made an official offer that would have topped their 10-year, $225MM franchise-record deal with Joey Votto.

“We made Elly an offer that would’ve made him the highest-paid Red ever,” Krall said (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). “That’s not where he is and you respect that. It’s their career. You keep going and you keep working on what you can do today.” De La Cruz opted not to go into specifics, telling fans at Redsfest only that he leaves contractual matters to his agent, Scott Boras.

The offer came on the heels of De La Cruz’s first full season in the big leagues. He hit 25 home runs and led the majors with 67 stolen bases while batting .259/.339/.471 in a little under 700 plate appearances. A switch-hitting shortstop with a massive power-speed combination, De La Cruz was a top 10 MVP finisher in his age-22 season. He had arguably been MLB’s #1 prospect before his promotion. It was enough for the Reds to safely consider him the face of the franchise.

As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, any extension above Votto money would have been a record for a player with fewer than two years of service. Julio Rodríguez holds that mark on his extension with the Mariners. That technically comes with a $210MM guarantee but has a massive escalator/option structure that could push the value closer to half a billion dollars. The player’s earning ceiling climbs as they approach arbitration. Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340MM) and Bobby Witt Jr. (11 years, $288.78MM) each commanded much bigger guarantees when they signed extensions at exactly two years of service.

Krall didn’t specify where the offer to De La Cruz would have landed in comparison to those precedents. Witt is an MVP-caliber player now but had some similarities to De La Cruz at the time he signed his extension over the 2023-24 offseason. He was also a former #1 prospect with the tools to be a franchise shortstop. Witt had hit .276/.319/.495 with 30 homers and 49 steals in the season preceding his long-term deal. He was already a star but had yet to level up to the player who’d win a batting title with an OPS pushing 1.000. Witt’s deal also built in four opt-out chances that could get him to free agency as early as his age-31 season — a time when a decade-long contract could be in the cards.

Whatever the specifics, De La Cruz has thus far opted to bet on himself. That’s the usual path for Boras Corporation clients, especially those who have yet to qualify for arbitration. He played on a pre-arbitration salary last year and will do the same in 2026. De La Cruz will qualify for arbitration next offseason and is under club control for four seasons. He’s on track to hit free agency at age 28.

De La Cruz’s production backed up a little bit in his second full season. He hit .264/.336/.440 with 22 longballs and 37 stolen bases. His average and on-base percentage were essentially unchanged, but his power and baserunning each took slight steps back. It’s unlikely to change much about how the Reds view him. De La Cruz started all but one game as the Reds battled for the National League’s final playoff spot. Krall said earlier in the offseason that De La Cruz played through a strained left quad. The injury and potential fatigue wore on him in the second half, as he hit .236/.303/.363 after the All-Star Break. He had carried a .284/.359/.495 slash with 25 steals into the Midsummer Classic.

Cincinnati will probably take another run at extension talks this spring, though it’d be a surprise if they get anything done. He’ll remain the team’s most important position player in either case. Krall made clear they’re committed to De La Cruz at shortstop, where he has a cannon arm but has led MLB in errors in consecutive seasons. He should lead the way offensively if he’s fully healthy, with his physical gifts giving him one of the highest ceilings in the league.

Angels Open To Playing Josh Lowe In Center Field

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The Angels added outfielder Josh Lowe in last night’s three-team trade that sent reliever Brock Burke to Cincinnati. General manager Perry Minasian held a Zoom call once the trade was finalized this morning, revealing that Lowe could compete for the center field job.

“He’s obviously had a couple of up-and-down seasons with injuries, but he’s a player we believe can play all three [outfield spots],” Minasian told reporters (including Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). The GM noted that Lowe’s left-handed bat is a good complement to a lineup that leans very heavily to the right side, especially in the outfield. Even after trading Taylor Ward early in the offseason, they’d entered the day with an all right-handed projected outfield mix of Mike Trout, Jorge Soler, Jo Adell and Bryce Teodosio. The only other lefty-hitting outfielder on the 40-man roster, Wade Meckler, was just claimed off waivers from San Francisco.

Lowe has been a right fielder for the majority of his career. He didn’t see any center field action last year and only started two games there in 2024. The Rays lifted him mid-game in both, and he tallied seven combined innings. He has 156 career innings of center field experience. That’s too small a sample on which to glean anything from defensive metrics.

The 6’4″ Lowe has long strides and is an above-average runner underway, but Statcast hasn’t been favorable on his first step reads. Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved have graded him as a slightly below-average right fielder in each of the past two seasons. It’s unlikely that his metrics would improve if he were tasked with playing the outfield’s most difficult position on a regular basis.

While Lowe fits best in a corner, the Angels don’t have many alternatives. Adell started half their games in center field last season. He graded as one of the worst defensive center fielders in MLB and moved to right field for the final month of the season. Teodosio is a talented defender who has hit .193/.236/.287 in 55 career games. Meckler hasn’t made a big league appearance in two years. The Angels could get Trout some center field work again in 2026 but prefer him in a corner to keep him healthy.

Cody Bellinger would be a strong roster fit, but there’s no indication the Angels are making a serious effort to add him on a long-term deal. Harrison Bader could be a more realistic target, albeit as another right-handed bat. Lowe would otherwise probably be their best option at the position, at least until 20-year-old prospect Nelson Rada is MLB ready.

The Angels are aggressive with prospect promotions and had Rada divide his age-19 season between the top two minor league levels. He played well at both stops and could get a look early in 2026. Prospect evaluators praise Rada’s approach, speed and defense. He has minimal power and is coming off a .292/.398/.360 slash in the minors.

Lowe will be looking for a rebound season after slumping to a .220/.283/.366 slash across 435 plate appearances in his final year with Tampa Bay. He was an average hitter two years ago and showed an All-Star caliber ceiling in 2023, when he hit .292/.335/.500 with 20 homers and 32 steals in 135 games. That’s the only season in which he reached 110 games or 500 plate appearances. Lowe has been hampered by injuries, mostly oblique troubles, over the past two years.

Rays View Gavin Lux As Full-Time Second Baseman

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The Rays swapped Josh Lowe for Gavin Lux as part of last night’s three-team trade. President of baseball operations Erik Neander discussed the move with Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times after it was finalized this morning.

Neander indicated the Rays were likely to narrow Lux’s defensive focus to his traditional second base position. The former top prospect worked in a utility role with Cincinnati last year, only starting 16 games at the keystone. He spent the majority of his defensive work in left field and started more games at designated hitter than any individual position.

“In our opinion, second base is his best position, and he plays it at his best when the entirety of his time is focused there,” Neander told Topkin. “The way things played out in Cincinnati last year, there was more opportunity in left field, more DH, more pinch-hit, a little bit of second base, but his work was not focused at second base. I think Gavin is someone that we can give him some clarity that, ‘Hey, second base, put your work in there, build your routines there, prepare for that, and basically that only.’ And I think that’s how we’re going to get the best out of him.”

Lux has played more second base than any other position in his career. He graded as a slightly above-average gloveman by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average between 2019-22. Lux missed the entire ’23 season with a torn ACL. The Dodgers initially planned to move him up the defensive spectrum to shortstop when he returned. They scrapped that when he struggled with his throwing accuracy during Spring Training. Lux’s arm is less of an issue on the right side of the infield, but his overall defensive grades have dipped in the last two years.

The Rays apparently feel that last year’s metrics are attributable to the multi-position role. Committing to Lux as an everyday second baseman would have trickle-down effects for the rest of the roster. That probably locks Taylor Walls in at shortstop to open the season, allowing them to send Carson Williams back to Triple-A to work through contact concerns.

Richie Palacios had been the in-house favorite for second base playing time after the Brandon Lowe trade. He’s most adversely impacted by the acquisition of Lux, who has a similar skillset. They’re each left-handed bats whose games are built around strong on-base ability despite limited power. Palacios hit well in a tiny sample last year but was limited to 17 games by a pair of injuries — a broken right ring finger and a more significant knee sprain that cost him the bulk of the season.

Palacios still has a minor league option and could head to Triple-A for another season. His best path to MLB playing time now is probably in the corner outfield. Palacios has played nearly 500 innings as a left fielder over parts of four MLB campaigns. The Rays have a wide open outfield around Cedric Mullins, who is likely to be the everyday center fielder. Jake Fraley, Jonny DeLuca, Chandler Simpson, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Ryan Vilade and trade pickup Jacob Melton will also compete for playing time. Fraley, Palacios, Simpson and Melton are all left-handed hitters.

Dodgers, Nick Robertson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers agreed to a minor league deal with reliever Nick Robertson, reports Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News. The righty returns to the organization that drafted him in the seventh round in 2019.

Robertson briefly reached the majors with Los Angeles. He made nine appearances before being traded to the Red Sox alongside minor league pitcher Justin Hagenman in the deal that brought Kiké Hernández back to the Dodgers. Robertson didn’t spend much time in Boston, as he only pitched for them at the big league level on nine occasions. The Sox dealt him to St. Louis in the Tyler O’Neill deal over the 2023-24 offseason.

The James Madison product then bounced around the league via a series of waiver transactions. He spent time with the Angels, Blue Jays (a claim that was met with some fanfare because the Maple Leafs have a player of the same name), and Astros. Robertson made one MLB appearance with Toronto and did not get to the highest level with Los Angeles or Houston. The Astros released him in August, and he closed the season on a minor league contract with the Royals.

Robertson has logged 35 2/3 major league innings overall. He carries a 5.30 earned run average despite better than average strikeout and walk numbers. He has allowed 4.46 earned runs per nine over parts of four Triple-A seasons. Robertson has punched out 26.2% of hitters at the top minor league level, but that comes alongside a lofty 11.3% walk percentage. He has a three-pitch mix (four-seam, slider and changeup) and averaged 93.4 MPH on the fastball in Triple-A last year. That’s down a couple ticks from the velocity he showed during his first stint in the L.A. organization.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
  • Interesting week, let's get rolling

LFGM

  • Head spinning! Lost Tucker, got Bichette all in the course of a day. I don’t think the Mets should trade Baty, if Bichette opts out after year 1 you have no 3B, so two questions, how do the Mets work out 1B, LF & DH if they keep Baty. Do you think Vientos, or Mauricio have the value combined with lesser prospects to get the SP the Mets need/want? Maybe Freddy Peralta?

Sam

  • Brett Baty on the move?

Lance

  • Mets have a roster full of middle infielders and at least 1 poor fielding outfielder, how do you see that shaking out?

Anthony Franco

  • A handful of the many Mets questions in here
  • I don't think Vientos (or certainly not Mauricio) has the juice to headline a Peralta deal, but it does feel to me that he's getting traded. Seems likelier than Baty, who offers more positional value as a capable defender at second/third (and presumably first)
  • Seems like the Mets balked at a Vientos/Robert framework at the deadline but I wonder if that's more workable now if Sox eat a chunk of the money or include a reliever other than Grant Taylor in there

Dave

  • How much of this "rush" from a few well-funded teams to spend large sums for short-term contracts is because of the expectation that the impending lockout will force a salary cap into place?

Philly A's

  • Are the shorter term but higher AVV contracts because of the possible strike?

Anthony Franco

  • I don't think that has much to do with it. Just seems like we had a couple huge spenders that didn't want to go long-term on very good but flawed hitters at the top of the class
  • Obviously if you're not keen on committing seven or eight years to either of these guys, you need to compensate by juicing the AAV. Mets had a ton of short-term spending room compared to last season and were running out of players on which they could use it after missing on Tucker

Stott Through The Heart And You're To Blame

  • Three years for Realmuto means that Dombrowski is planning on retiring after 2 and letting someone else clean up the mess?

Anthony Franco

  • Haha if that were the case, why balk at going to three years in November?
  • I'm a little surprised they caved but credit to JTR and his camp for waiting it out. Seemed like Bichette was the last other player for which they were prepared to spend and once he chose elsewhere, they said "screw it, let's get Realmuto done"

Justin

  • how do the Tucker and Bichette deals impact Cody Bellinger?

Anthony Franco

  • Mets could still accommodate Belli, I guess, but that feels less likely now. Beyond that, not sure it matters much. Dodgers never felt likely there and Yankees never seemed to be in on Tucker. My guess is they get the Yankees to cave on the sixth year and wrap it up

Shatkins

  • Did aaron judge just become the most underpaid player in the game (besides arb controlled assets)

Anthony Franco

  • It's Ohtani for me but Judge is second. That deal felt like a win for the Yanks at the time and obviously looks dramatically better with where salaries at the top of the market have gone since

Soooo

  • What’s next for Boston? I feel like they still need a bat, but I hate to see them lose Early or Tolle. Does some combination of Harrison and Crawford (plus others) get them Paredes?

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Red Sox Could Trade From Rotation After Suárez Deal

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The Red Sox went big with their first free agent signing of the winter, adding Ranger Suárez for five years and $130MM on Wednesday. That followed trade acquisitions of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, meaning the Sox could enter the season having replaced 60% of their rotation.

Even with Lucas Giolito departing in free agency, the Red Sox have eight to ten viable options. They’ll be anchored at the top end by Garrett Crochet, Suárez and Gray. It’s unlikely that Boston would flip Oviedo within a few months of giving up a reasonably well-regarded outfield prospect (Jhostynxon Garcia) to acquire him. Beyond that, the Sox could dangle any of their starters on the trade market.

Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and Sean McAdam of MassLive each wrote this week that a rotation trade was a possibility. The Sox don’t need to force one unless overwhelmed by an offer. Starting pitching depth can quickly thin, and most of Boston’s back-end arms have minor league options remaining. They can load up the rotation at Triple-A Worcester to prepare for injuries over the course of a 162-game schedule.

On the other hand, dealing a starter could get the Sox their finishing piece in the infield. They lost the bidding for Alex Bregman, leaving them short at least one player on the dirt. Even if they’re comfortable turning the hot corner to Marcelo Mayer, they don’t have a clear answer at second base. They don’t want to take Ceddanne Rafaela out of center field, where he’s one of the best defenders in the sport. Kristian Campbell struggled defensively as a rookie, and it seems the organization prefers him in the outfield. A platoon of David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez is underwhelming for a win-now team in a competitive division.

If the Suárez signing was their one big free agent move in the budget, the Red Sox should find a way to add an infielder on the trade front. The Sox were tied to Ketel Marte before the Diamondbacks pulled him from the market. They’ve been linked to Brendan Donovan, although Ari Alexander of 7 Boston News suggests they’d prefer a right-handed bat and thus may not be as motivated as some other teams on Donovan (e.g. Giants, Mariners).

The Red Sox have been tied to Houston third baseman Isaac Paredes throughout the winter. Astros GM Dana Brown has downplayed the club’s interest in moving an infielder, but that hasn’t stopped teams from calling. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this week that teams continue to engage the Astros to see if they can change their minds on Paredes. Houston has added a pair of potential mid-rotation starters, Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai, but they remain light on controllable starting pitching.

Let’s take a run through the possibilities if chief baseball officer Craig Breslow does move a starter.

Payton Tolle/Connelly Early

If the Sox deal from their rotation, these would be their two most valuable trade chips. Tolle and Early both debuted late in the 2025 season. Early was very good over four abbreviated starts. Tolle struggled over seven appearances, but that’s not going to deter teams from having interest in a 23-year-old who pitched his way to the big leagues within his first full professional season.

Tolle and Early respectively rank as the Sox’s top and third-best prospects at Baseball America. Tolle has bigger stuff, averaging 97 MPH on a heater that plays up even further based on his excellent extension and above-average life at the top of the zone. Early also gets good extension and has fantastic secondary stuff, headlined by a plus changeup. His 94 MPH fastball is closer to average, but he’s a superior strike-thrower to Tolle.

Both pitchers have six years of club control and a trio of minor league options. Teams are loath to part with starters who have this level of talent. It’s unlikely the Sox would trade either pitcher for a player who is a year from free agency. Would they entertain it for a controllable star hitter? McCaffrey and McAdam both floated the possibility of the Sox trying to reengage with Arizona on Marte by dangling one of Tolle or Early alongside an outfielder like Jarren Duran or Rafaela. Even if the Diamondbacks are committed to moving forward with Marte, the general idea is that the Sox would only move one of their most talented starters for an impact bat.

Brayan Bello

Bello will make $6MM next season and is signed for a total of $50.5MM over the next four years. There’s a club option for 2030 that gives the Sox a fifth season of control. Bello would be locked into the fourth starter role if he’s not traded. The 26-year-old righty has briefly come up in conversations this offseason, albeit with uncertainty about how willing the Sox are to move him.

Last season, Bello ranked second on the team with 166 2/3 innings. He turned in a 3.35 earned run average but didn’t have as favorable reviews from estimators like FIP (4.19) and SIERA (4.55). That’s due to a career-low 17.7% strikeout rate. Bello’s 8.6% swinging strike percentage was also a personal low and ranked in the bottom 25 among all MLB pitchers (min. 100 innings pitched). It’s difficult to maintain mid-rotation results with that level of swing and miss.

Bello has good velocity, averaging 95 MPH on his sinker and four-seam fastball. The sinker is the better of the two offerings, and he leans on it more as a ground-ball pitch than one that gets a lot of whiffs. While Bello has missed more bats in previous seasons, he has always had more of a ground-ball approach. There’s volatility baked into that, and the Sox don’t project to have a great infield defense behind him. Bello is probably closer to a league average arm than the ERA would indicate. That’s still valuable at the remaining $12.625MM average annual value on his contract. Notably, if the Sox chose to move Bello, they’d be trimming what’s currently a $9.166MM luxury hit from their current books (the overall AAV of his extension, which covers the 2024-29 seasons).

Kutter Crawford/Patrick Sandoval

Both pitchers missed the entire 2025 season. Crawford, who is signed for $2.75MM in his second of four arbitration years, began the year on the shelf with right knee discomfort. He injured his right wrist a couple months later and underwent surgery. Crawford had been a swingman for his first couple seasons but stepped into a full-time rotation role in 2024. He pitched well for a few months until a second-half home run spike pushed his ERA to 4.36 across 183 2/3 innings.

Crawford had slightly above-average strikeout and walk marks a couple seasons ago. The home runs and injury history are concerns, but he’s cheaply controllable through 2028 and could be a league average starter if he’s healthy. He also has a pair of minor league options, so there’s a decent amount of roster flexibility for the Sox or any team that acquires him. He’s well behind Tolle, Early and Bello in terms of trade value but would have some appeal if the Sox tried to swap him for a utility infielder or controllable bullpen piece.

The Sox knew that Sandoval was unlikely to pitch much (if at all) in 2025 when they signed him to a two-year, $18.25MM contract early in his rehab from June ’24 Tommy John surgery. They backloaded the deal, paying $5.5MM for his rehab year and a $12.75MM salary for the upcoming season. The 29-year-old Sandoval was a mid-rotation starter over his final three seasons as a member of the Angels. He pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate in nearly 400 innings between 2022-24. His command is fringy but he sits around 94 MPH and has above-average secondaries with his changeup and slider.

Boston may not want to trade Sandoval for a modest return after paying more than $5MM to cover his rehab year. The front office liked him enough to sign him to that deal in the first place. Yet the rotation picture has changed, and Sandoval’s five-plus years of service mean he can’t be sent to the minors. They might be better off trusting Oviedo or Crawford as the fifth starter and getting some of Sandoval’s contract off the books for a utility or bullpen pickup.

Kyle Harrison

Of the players acquired from the Giants in the Rafael Devers trade, Harrison was probably the centerpiece. The deal was mostly about moving on from Devers and shedding his contract. The Sox kept Harrison in Triple-A for much of the ’25 season even as their rotation was being hit by injuries. They finally brought him up in September. Harrison pitched well over his first two outings before getting knocked around in his third. The Sox carried him on their Wild Card Series roster but didn’t use him, opting instead to go with the rookie Early in a must-win Game 3.

Harrison has a decent arm, sitting in the 94-95 MPH range. His secondary stuff and command have been inconsistent, and he owns a 4.39 ERA across 194 2/3 career innings. Harrison is under club control for at least five seasons and has a pair of options remaining. There’d be plenty of teams interested if the Sox shopped him, but his stock has dropped since he was one of the sport’s top pitching prospects a couple seasons ago. Boston is probably better served holding him and hoping for a step forward in his age-24 season.

Tanner Houck

An offseason Houck trade wouldn’t accomplish much and feels unlikely. He’s coming off a terrible year that culminated in an August Tommy John procedure. He’s expected to miss the ’26 season and would have minimal appeal to another team. Houck agreed to a $4.1MM salary to avoid arbitration and should make the same amount for his final year of club control . They can place him on the 60-day injured list once Spring Training opens.

Dodgers To Sign Kyle Tucker

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The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers are reportedly in agreement with Kyle Tucker on a four-year, $240MM contract. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. The team has not officially announced the signing, which is pending a physical, and will need to create a 40-man roster spot once it’s official.

Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. He slots into a lineup alongside Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history.

It’s a $60MM average on the surface. Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star who’s a little outside the top tier of superstars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full campaigns, improving his approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. He was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb diving into second on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tucker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. The offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.

Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).

MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.

He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.

While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.

They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners who will argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.

That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or their fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.

After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Mets Reportedly Offered Tucker Four Years, $220MM

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The Mets’ final offer to Kyle Tucker was for four years and $220MM, reports Jim Duquette of MLB Network on Sirius XM Radio. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds that the offer included no deferred money and would have been slightly frontloaded, paying $120MM over the first two seasons. Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that it included a $75MM signing bonus and allowed Tucker to opt out after the second and third season.

It’s a very similar structure to the four-year, $240MM deal which Tucker accepted from the Dodgers. The opt-out provisions were identical. New York offered a higher signing bonus and the absence of deferred money, while the Dodgers went the extra $20MM on overall guarantee. The Mets’ offer would have come with a $55MM average annual value. Tucker’s agreement with L.A. will be calculated a little north of $57MM annually after adjusting the net present value to account for $30MM in deferrals.

Tucker and his camp opted for the higher guarantee and slightly stronger adjusted annual value. The four-time All-Star also joins a team that is coming off consecutive championships and will enter the 2026 season as the likeliest team to win it all again. The Mets certainly have the high-end talent to compete in the National League, but they’re coming off a second half collapse and have probably downgraded this offseason. They swapped Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien, signed Jorge Polanco to replace Pete Alonso, traded Jeff McNeil, and added Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to a bullpen that lost Edwin Díaz, Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley.

The Nimmo trade leaves the Mets in obvious need of a left fielder. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests they’re likely to more seriously pursue Cody Bellinger at this point. That’d probably require them to reverse course on this winter’s aversion to long-term commitments. The Yankees reportedly have a five-year offer out to Bellinger in the $155-160MM range. That’s already a hefty annual value and a decent term, though his camp at the Boras Corporation is seemingly shooting for seven years.

Harrison Bader may be the only other everyday outfielder remaining in free agency. He’s a glove-first center fielder who had a middling season for the Mets just two years ago. They might not feel he’s a significant enough upgrade over Tyrone Taylor, and he’s certainly not an approximation for the middle-of-the-order bat they were trying to land in Tucker. They could be more aggressive on the trade front for someone like Jarren Duran or Lars Nootbaar. Getting the Red Sox to deal the former would likely require parting with one of their talented starting pitchers alongside immediate infield help (i.e. Brett Baty or Mark Vientos).

Rays, Angels, Reds Agree To Three-Team Trade Involving Josh Lowe, Gavin Lux

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While Kyle Tucker dominated baseball’s headlines, the Rays, Angels and Reds worked out a three-team trade. Outfielder Josh Lowe heads from Tampa Bay to the Angels. The Rays acquire utilityman Gavin Lux from Cincinnati and minor league pitcher Chris Clark from the Halos. The Reds get left-handed reliever Brock Burke from Los Angeles. The deal was finalized on Friday morning.

It’s the second trade involving an everyday outfielder for the Angels this offseason. This time, the player is coming their way. Lowe will fill the outfield void left by Taylor Ward, who was shipped to Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez. Tampa Bay entered the winter with a pair of Lowes, but the club will head into 2026 without either one. The versatile Lux can fill the void left by the Brandon Lowe deal. Cincinnati nets a veteran southpaw, while also getting off the $5.525MM contract Lux received in arbitration. Burke will make about half of that this season.

Lowe seemed like a fixture in Tampa Bay’s lineup after a massive 20/30 campaign in 2023. He posted a 135 wRC+ in his first season as a regular. Injuries would stifle his production the next two seasons. Oblique and hamstring issues delayed the start of his 2024 season. The oblique cost him time later that year, and then again at the beginning of this past season. He wasn’t productive when healthy this year, stumbling to a career-worst 79 wRC+ behind a .220/.283/.366 batting line. Lowe hit .139 with a 35.3% strikeout rate in his final month with the team.

With Ward gone and Mike Trout penciled in at DH, the Angels had limited options in the outfield prior to the move. Lowe will now slot in alongside Jo Adell and Jorge Soler. The Rays shielded him from lefties for much of his time there, and with good reason. Lowe has a .504 OPS and a 33% strikeout rate in his limited work against same-handed pitching (288 plate appearances). He could be ticketed for regular at-bats given the lack of a platoon partner. The right-handed bench outfielder is currently Bryce Teodosio, a glove-first option. Trout only made 22 starts in the outfield last season, but that could change considering the alternatives.

A former first-round pick, Lowe is a plus runner who has slightly above-average bat speed. The aforementioned 20-30 season hints at his physical upside, but the durability and strikeout concerns kept him from establishing himself as a cornerstone player. He has only once reached 500 plate appearances in a season.

Lowe played a little bit of center field early in his career. The vast majority of his experience has come in right, and he has only logged seven innings up the middle over the past two seasons. He’d be stretched in center defensively, yet that’s also true of Trout and Adell. The Halos will probably need to live with rough up-the-middle defense from Lowe or Adell to get a better bat than Teodosio’s in the lineup, at least until 20-year-old center field prospect Nelson Rada arrives.

Tampa Bay and Lowe settled on a $2.6MM deal to avoid arbitration this year. It was his first trip through the process. He’s controlled for three seasons and still has a minor league option remaining, so the Halos could send him down without putting him on waivers. The Angels’ estimated payroll on RosterResource still sits at about $30MM below last year’s mark.

The Reds acquired Lux last offseason in a trade with the Dodgers. He delivered league-average results at the plate in his lone season in Cincinnati, hitting .269/.350/.374 with five homers over a career-high 503 plate appearances. Lux made most of his appearances in left field, while also spending time at second base and third base. He was also used frequently as a pinch hitter.

Lux was one of Cincinnati’s more reliable on-base hitters, but he has never developed into much of a power threat. The former top prospect hasn’t hit more than 10 homers in any of his five-plus MLB seasons. Last winter’s change of scenery trade and move to Great American Ball Park didn’t really move the needle. The left-handed hitter has a solid offensive floor but probably doesn’t have much untapped upside as he enters his age-28 season.

The bigger drawback is that Lux has never settled into a clear positional home. He has moved around less because he’s an incredibly versatile and more due to his defensive struggles at various positions. His throwing accuracy has been an intermittent issue on the infield, even at second base. Defensive metrics haven’t looked favorably upon his work in the corner outfield.

The Rays had a clear gap at second base after the (first) Lowe trade. The internal choices were uninspiring, though Richie Palacios has some similarities as a left-handed hitter whose game is built around his on-base skills. Lux should step into a near-everyday role, with Tampa Bay’s typical platoon shenanigans likely capping his reps against left-handed pitching. He could also get some rotational corner outfield work, replacing Josh Lowe as a lefty bat in an outfield that remains without much certainty. Lux is a one-year addition who’ll reach free agency for the first time next winter.

The Angels claimed Burke, coincidentally a former Rays’ draftee, off waivers from the Rangers in August 2024. His one-and-a-half years with the club represented one of the better stretches of his big league career. Burke put together a 3.40 ERA across 90 appearances as an Angel. He pitched in a career-high 69 games last year. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration and will hit free agency next season.

Burke was able to tap into more velocity after joining the Angels. He sat 94-95 mph after transitioning from the rotation to the bullpen with the Rangers. In L.A., Burke bumped his heater to 96 mph. He also upped his slider usage with the club. Burke had a career-high 30.5% strikeout rate with the Angels in 2024. That number fell by more than 10 points in 2025, but he counteracted it with a career-best 53.3% ground-ball rate. Burke doesn’t have huge platoon splits and isn’t a situational specialist so much as a generally steady arm whom Terry Francona can use in the middle innings.

Cincinnati relied on Taylor Rogers as its primary lefty last season, until he was sent to the Cubs at the deadline. The Reds have added Burke and Caleb Ferguson to fill the role for 2026. They also tendered a contract to the out-of-options Sam Moll, so it seems they’ll begin the season with three veteran lefties in the relief corps.

Clark was a fifth-round pick by the Angels in 2023. He posted a 4.73 ERA across 28 minor league appearances this past season. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs praised Clark’s developing changeup and loose arm action heading into the 2025 campaign. The righty uses a sinker and sweeper as his two main pitches. A changeup would fit in nicely. The 24-year-old Clark topped out at Double-A last year. He made just one start at the level and will likely be back there to open the 2026 season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade. Respective images via Chris Tilley, Gary A. Vasquez of Imagn Images.

Mariners Designate Samad Taylor For Assignment

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The Mariners designated utilityman Samad Taylor for assignment. That creates a 40-man roster spot for reliever Yosver Zulueta, whose previously reported acquisition from Cincinnati is official.

Taylor was on Seattle’s 40-man roster for the majority of last season. He didn’t get much of a big league opportunity, only stepping to the plate nine times over four games. The M’s otherwise kept him on optional assignment to Triple-A Tacoma. Taylor had an excellent season in the Pacific Coast League, batting .296/.378/.461 with 27 doubles, seven triples and 17 home runs across 657 plate appearances. He posted better than average walk and strikeout rates while stealing 44 bases in 54 attempts.

The right-handed hitting Taylor has consistently produced against minor league pitching. He owns a .281/.373/.432 slash line in nearly 2000 Triple-A plate appearances over four seasons. Teams have remained skeptical about his ability to carry that over against big league pitching. Taylor has minimal power, as he’s listed at 5’8″ and 160 pounds.

Despite last year’s decent home run total, his exit velocities in Triple-A have been well below average. He has used his smaller strike zone to his advantage and worked a lot of walks against minor league pitchers. That could be difficult to maintain against MLB arms, who have better command and should be more equipped to challenge Taylor within the zone.

Seattle successfully ran Taylor through waivers unclaimed last offseason. That’d give him the right to elect free agency if he clears this time around. Taylor’s minor league production and ability to play second base and anywhere in the outfield could get him a look on the waiver wire. He’s now out of minor league options, however, so a claiming team would need to carry him on the MLB roster or send him back to DFA limbo.

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