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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves were the offseason’s least active free agent spender. With payroll mounting, they allowed a star hitter to depart for a second straight offseason. Atlanta instead landed arguably the top player of the winter trade market, promptly extending him to join a loaded internal group.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $1.4MM
Total spending: $1.4MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Jake Odorizzi exercised $12.5MM player option instead of $6.25MM buyout

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Tyler Matzek to two-year, $3.1MM extension (deal also contains 2025 club option and potentially buys out one free agent year)
  • Signed C Sean Murphy to six-year, $73MM extension (deal also contains 2029 club option and potentially buys out four free agent years)

Notable Losses

The Braves had an otherworldly second half to secure their fifth consecutive NL East title. Unlike the year before, they weren’t able to catch fire during the postseason. After losing in the Division Series to the Phillies, Atlanta went into the offseason again facing the potential departure of a star position player.

As was the case with Freddie Freeman a year ago, there was some early belief the Braves wouldn’t part ways with Dansby Swanson. The former first overall pick is a Georgia native and had emerged as a clubhouse leader, to say nothing of his excellent durability and quality production on both sides of the ball. Yet reports even before the offseason began suggested Atlanta had floated around $100MM in extension talks — a number that might’ve been acceptable early in the year but looked very light by the start of the offseason.

Atlanta made Swanson a qualifying offer that he predictably rejected. There didn’t seem to be much further contact; Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported in early December that Atlanta and Swanson’s camp hadn’t had any real negotiations since the start of the offseason. Two weeks after that, Swanson was a Cub. His $177MM guarantee with Chicago shattered Atlanta’s reported offer from during the season. The Braves picked up a compensatory draft pick but go into 2023 with a question mark at shortstop for the first time in years.

Swanson was one of four All-Star caliber shortstops available in free agency. Atlanta was never substantively linked to any of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts either, hinting at the payroll questions that surrounded the organization throughout the winter. No organization has been as successful as the Braves at signing early-career players to long-term extensions. Deals for the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II have locked in a core that should compete throughout the decade. Yet those contracts have run up the payroll, limiting the club’s flexibility to attack free agency.

Atlanta entered the winter with a projected franchise-record payroll. The Liberty Media ownership group floated the notion of running top five payrolls in the near future. That raised the expectations among some within the fanbase but always felt a bit misleading, as Atlanta’s existing commitments put them in the back half of the top ten in spending already. There simply didn’t seem to be much room for the front office to play the open market.

No other team spent less in free agency. Atlanta’s only major league free agent signees were corner outfielder Jordan Luplow and relievers Nick Anderson and Jackson Stephens (the latter two of whom signed split deals that pay less for time spent in the minors). All three players had been cut at the start of the offseason — Stephens by the Braves themselves — and none will open this year on the MLB roster. Luplow and Anderson have already been optioned to Triple-A, while Atlanta ran Stephens through waivers and sent him outright to Gwinnett.

Without much spending capacity, Braves’ brass turned to the trade market to bolster a win-now roster. Atlanta orchestrated arguably the biggest trade of the winter, a three-team blockbuster that registered as a major surprise. There was never much doubt the rebuilding A’s would trade Sean Murphy. However, few would’ve pegged Atlanta as the landing spot back in November. The Braves already had a quality catching group consisting of Travis d’Arnaud, William Contreras and Manny Piña. There were plenty of other teams with a more dire catching need.

Murphy is a special player, though, one whom Atlanta pursued despite that positional depth. He’s among the sport’s best defensive catchers and has hit at an above-average level throughout his four-season career. Murphy has topped 15 home runs in each of the last two years despite playing his home games in one of the sport’s least favorable offensive environments. He draws walks, has power, and posted a personal-low 20.3% strikeout rate last season. There aren’t many more valuable all-around catchers.

Even a team with as much depth as the Braves would upgrade from adding a player of that caliber. Shortly after the Winter Meetings, Atlanta pulled it off by looping in the Brewers in a three-team deal that would send young outfielder Esteury Ruiz from Milwaukee to Oakland. Contreras, a quality hitter with some defensive concerns, was shipped off to Milwaukee as their catcher of the future. Piña headed back to the A’s as part of a salary offset. The Braves relinquished some upper level rotation depth, packaging Kyle Muller, Freddy Tarnok and High-A pitching prospect Royber Salinas to Oakland. Atlanta gave up a handful of well-regarded players but no one in that group looks like the kind of headliner the Braves will be devastated to lose, particularly since Murphy steps in as an immediate upgrade over the best player they relinquished.

A big part of Murphy’s appeal was his three remaining seasons of arbitration eligibility. While he was controllable at below-market rates through 2025, Atlanta committed to him as part of the core long before he ever donned a Braves uniform. Within weeks of the trade, Murphy and the Braves had agreed to a $73MM extension that buys out three free agent years and gives the club an affordable $15MM option for a fourth. It was another extension that has the potential to be a team-friendly pact and aligns well with the contention window for this core.

With Murphy in the fold, d’Arnaud gets pushed into the role of overqualified backup. Atlanta quickly made clear they wouldn’t look to trade him. They’ll instead deploy him frequently as the designated hitter and on rest days for Murphy. It served to indirectly upgrade a DH position that was one of the few position player weaknesses on the roster.

How to divvy up DH playing time dovetails with one of the other questionable spots: left field. Marcell Ozuna hasn’t performed well through the first two seasons of a four-year deal. He’s still due $37MM over the next couple seasons and remains on the roster. Atlanta looks set to give him another shot to reestablish himself offensively while splitting time between left field and DH.

That’s also true of Eddie Rosario. He followed up his 2021 World Series heroics with a disastrous ’22 campaign, hitting .212/.259/.328 in 80 games. The organization has attributed those struggles to an eye issue for which he underwent corrective vision surgery last April. There’s presumably some merit to that but Rosario has been one of the sport’s streakiest players throughout his eight-year MLB career. He’s not likely to be as bad as he was last season but he’s also not the established offensive force a team would be enthused to have in left field.

Rather than bring in a clear upgrade, Atlanta took a volume approach to left field. Luplow signed to add a right-handed matchup bat to the mix. The Braves took a flier on the toolsy Sam Hilliard, a former Rockie with big power but massive strikeout tallies. Atlanta also acquired defensive specialist Eli White from the Rangers and brought in veteran Kevin Pillar on a minor league deal. Adam Duvall and Robbie Grossman were allowed to depart in free agency. Hilliard and Pillar remain in MLB camp and could have the leg up on season-opening bench spots, with Hilliard out of minor league options and Pillar having the right to retest free agency if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

It’s a hodgepodge of options without a clear solution, one where the organization seems set to take a hot hand approach. Whoever’s in left will be joined by two of the sport’s top young outfielders in Harris and Acuña. It’s a similar story on the infield, where three stars are joined by one area of concern.

Olson and Albies will be back on the left side of the infield. Riley has third base secured. Atlanta maintained throughout the winter it’d be an open competition to replace Swanson. There seemed a general expectation that 22-year-old Vaughn Grissom would take that job after he flashed some offensive potential last season while Albies was injured. Grissom’s production tailed off after a scorching start and prospect evaluators aren’t convinced he’ll be able to handle the position defensively. Atlanta settled the Opening Day shortstop debate yesterday, optioning both Grissom and former first-round pick Braden Shewmake to Gwinnett.

The job now falls to Orlando Arcia, an experienced utility option whose career offensive track record is below-average. The 28-year-old hit at a decent .244/.316/.416 clip in part-time action last season, however. The Braves will go with stability over upside in the early going, turning to Arcia and likely tabbing non-roster invitee Ehire Adrianza as a utility option off the bench. There’s no question they’re in for a downgrade relative to Swanson, though that would’ve been true regardless of which player won the job. Arcia is an unexciting stopgap whom the club will count on as a low-end regular while giving Grissom and Shewmake more developmental run. The Braves could have turned to a veteran free agent like Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias for little cost but apparently don’t consider either to be a better player than Arcia.

While a veteran won the shortstop job out of camp, Atlanta’s fifth starter role looks as if it’ll fall to a rookie. The Braves have an elite top four with Max Fried, Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Atlanta cleared a path to the fifth spot for a young pitcher at the start of the offseason, paying down $10MM of Jake Odorizzi’s $12.5MM contract to offload him to Texas. That deal brought back former first-round pick Kolby Allard, who has gotten hit hard at the MLB level and will start the year on the injured list because of an oblique issue.

With Odorizzi out of the picture, the fifth starter job seemed to fall to one of Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder or Michael Soroka. Soroka fell out of the Opening Day mix by suffering a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Anderson and Elder got leapfrogged on the depth chart by prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, both of whom have excelled in camp. Anderson and Elder were optioned out, leaving Dodd and Shuster to battle for the fifth spot. Neither has yet played in MLB; they’re both coming off strong seasons in the upper minors and have quality secondary stuff and command to compensate for mediocre velocity.

As with any team, the Braves are sure to cycle through a number of pitchers at the back of the rotation as injuries and performance necessitate. The fifth spot shouldn’t be a huge concern thanks to the elite front four and a bullpen that again looks like one of the game’s best. They let closer Kenley Jansen walk after one very good season in Atlanta but have ample possibilities to fill the high-leverage innings.

The Braves acquired Raisel Iglesias at last summer’s deadline as a ready-made closing replacement for Jansen. A.J. Minter and Dylan Lee are excellent setup options from the left side. Atlanta brought in veteran specialist Lucas Luetge in a trade after he was designated for assignment by the Yankees to add a third quality left-hander. Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates are right-handed setup options. The Braves landed one of the better relievers available in trade this offseason, sending third base/corner outfield prospect Justyn-Henry Malloy to Detroit for the final arbitration season of hard-throwing righty Joe Jiménez.

That’s seven spots accounted for if everyone’s healthy. Anderson and Stephens could get looks in a depth capacity at some point. Old friend Jesse Chavez is back in camp as a non-roster invitee and might get the first crack at a long relief role. Atlanta agreed to a two-year deal with Tyler Matzek to cement him as a part of the 2024 relief corps, though he won’t be available this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.

Once the offseason roster work was complete, the Braves turned their attention to a couple administrative concerns. Atlanta signed manager Brian Snitker to an extension that runs through 2025, tacking on two guaranteed seasons to his existing deal. That came on the heels of a notable front office departure, with vice president of scouting Dana Brown departing in January to take over baseball operations with the Astros.

There were a few high-level changes this winter but much of the Braves’ offseason is built around continuity. The Braves struck for one of the biggest trades and added a couple relievers in smaller deals. They did virtually nothing in free agency while watching Swanson and Jansen sign elsewhere. While it may not have been the most exciting winter for the fanbase, the Braves will head into the season with a legitimate goal of claiming a sixth straight NL East title. The organization has committed to this core and the group will try to again hold off the ascendant Mets and Phillies in arguably the game’s most competitive division.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Braves on March 22. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Atlanta offseason? (poll link for app users)

How Would You Grade The Braves' Offseason?
B 48.47% (1,311 votes)
C 28.95% (783 votes)
A 11.98% (324 votes)
D 7.10% (192 votes)
F 3.51% (95 votes)
Total Votes: 2,705

 

Latest On D-Backs’ Rotation

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The Diamondbacks entered Spring Training with four rotation spots in place. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are the top two on the staff. Madison Bumgarner will get another crack in the middle, while Arizona brought back Zach Davies on a one-year free agent deal to take a back-end spot.

Who would secure the fifth spot was one of the more interesting decisions for the Snakes in camp. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored in early January, that battle looked likely to come down to four hurlers: Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry and Brandon Pfaadt. Jameson and Nelson, both of whom made their big league debuts late in the 2022 season, seemed the early favorites.

That indeed now appears to be a two-person race. Arizona reassigned Pfaadt, who is not yet on the 40-man roster, to minor league camp over the weekend. They optioned Henry to Triple-A Reno this afternoon, taking him out of consideration for an Opening Day job as well.

Neither Jameson nor Nelson has done much to seize the job this spring. The former has allowed eight runs in 9 2/3 innings, while the latter has been tagged for nine runs in the same amount of work. Jameson has at least managed a solid 12:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while Nelson’s 10:6 mark is less impressive.

Both pitchers fared well in very limited MLB looks last year. Jameson made four starts and posted a microscopic 1.48 ERA through 24 1/3 innings. That came with an excellent 56.1% grounder percentage and above-average strikeout and walk numbers. It was a very strong debut effort but won’t completely erase concerns about the ghastly 6.95 ERA he’d posted over the 114 Triple-A innings he’d thrown prior to his promotion. Reno is among the hardest places in affiliated ball to pitch, which certainly didn’t do him any favors. That said, some prospect evaluators have suggested the Ball State product is likelier to settle into a bullpen role than a rotation because of concerns about his command.

Nelson has had some relief concerns himself, though he’s generally credited for more advanced command than Jameson. He doesn’t throw quite as hard and didn’t miss as many bats in his brief big league look as Jameson did. Nelson had similarly strong bottom line numbers in a cup of coffee, however, allowing four runs in 18 1/3 big league frames. Over 136 innings in Reno, he’d posted a 5.43 ERA with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers.

Henry had the most MLB work of this group in 2022, starting nine games. He didn’t find the early success of Jameson or Nelson, pitching to a 5.36 ERA with below-average strikeout and walk rates in 47 innings. Henry allowed 11 runs in 16 1/3 frames in camp before being optioned. Pfaadt is arguably held in the highest regard of the bunch but is the only one who hasn’t made his big league debut. The 24-year-old made 19 starts at Double-A Amarillo and 10 with Reno last season, combining for a 3.83 ERA in 167 innings. He allowed five runs with 15 strikeouts and four walks in 12 innings this spring.

Adrian Houser Expected To Begin Season In Brewers’ Bullpen

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Despite some offseason speculation about the Brewers potentially trading from their rotation depth, Milwaukee added to the starting staff this winter. Veteran southpaw Wade Miley returned on a one-year free agent deal, joining Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser in the starting mix.

Milwaukee subsequently lost Aaron Ashby and depth starter Jason Alexander to injuries to open the year. Still, with a rotation that runs six deep, Houser has seemed the likeliest odd man out since Miley joined the club in January. The right-hander confirmed this afternoon that Milwaukee brass informed him at the start of Spring Training they were planning to deploy him in relief to open the year (link via Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Houser indicated he hasn’t heard from team officials about his role since that initial conversation. Manager Craig Counsell indicated that was still the plan though. “The goal, frankly, was (using Houser in relief) because it means that we were healthy in the other spots,” Counsell said (as relayed by Hogg). “We are in a good spot there. We’re trending toward that. We’re not there yet but we’re trending toward that. (Houser) has been out far enough where we’re in a good spot either way and that’s what we were hoping for.”

Houser would be the next option in the event of injury and seems assured to make some starts throughout the course of the year. Nevertheless, he told Hogg today his goal remains to be in the top five on the depth chart. “In my mind, I consider myself in that five. That’s the way I’ve been going about it. I’ve been considering myself in the rotation. That’s the way I’ve been going about my business and my work is that I’m in the rotation until they tell me otherwise. That’s when it will change.”

The 30-year-old has been an effective big league starter in the recent past. He threw 142 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with an elite 59% ground-ball rate as recently as 2021. Last year was a struggle, as he allowed a bit fewer than five earned runs per nine innings while his grounder percentage fell to an only slightly above-average 46.7% clip. Houser has had below-average strikeout and walk numbers in each of the past three seasons, so keeping the ball on the ground at a near league-best rate is integral to his success.

Once Milwaukee signed Miley, there was some thought Houser could find himself on the trade block. There’s no indication the Brewers actually explored offers in the past few months, though, and the chances of a trade seemingly diminished once Ashby was ruled out for the first few weeks of the season. Houser is out of minor league option years, so there’s no question he’ll be on the Opening Day roster. The Brewers seem likely to deploy him in multi-inning stints to keep him stretched out if/when a rotation need arises.

Competition Committee Evaluating Potential Alterations To 2023 Rule Changes

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Major League Baseball has introduced a number of rule changes for the 2023 campaign. The pitch clock, limitations on infield shifting, and enlarged bases were all announced last September, with the changes going into effect this spring.

With Opening Day now ten days out, Evan Drellich of the Athletic reports the Competition Committee met this afternoon to discuss potential alterations to some of the new rules. Specific changes under consideration aren’t known but Drellich notes that any adjustment made before Opening Day would not be expected to be major. To be clear, there’s nothing to suggest the committee is considering abandoning any of the new provisions entirely. Rather, they’re examining potential tweaks to the rule changes that have already been put in place.

Even small changes to the rules less than two weeks before meaningful action begins could lead to an adjustment period that lingers into the season. However, it appears the changes under consideration are at the MLBPA’s behest. Drellich notes the union brought some concerns about the new rules to the league to prompt the reconsideration.

The players on the Competition Committee voted unanimously against the implementation of the pitch clock and the shift limit last summer. That was little more than a symbolic gesture, as the four players on the committee are outnumbered by the six league appointees (plus an umpire). That gives MLB essential unilateral control for changes to the on-field rules — which was mutually agreed upon by MLB and the Players Association during the last round of collective bargaining — and MLB pushed through the clock and shift ban over the objections of the players on the committee.

As things stand, pitchers have up to 15 seconds with no one on base and a maximum of 20 seconds with runners aboard to begin their delivery. Hitters, meanwhile, have to be in the box and alert to the pitcher by the time the clock gets to eight seconds. Hitters are also capped at one timeout per plate appearance, while pitchers cannot disengage from the rubber (either a step-off or pickoff attempt) more than twice in an at-bat unless an out is successfully recorded on the third disengagement. Umpires are, however, granted broad authority to award extra time if circumstances necessitate.

The pitch clock has seemed to have its intended effect in exhibition play. Drellich points out that this year’s Spring Training games have averaged two hours, 36 minutes through play on Sunday after averaging three hours, one minute in 2022. Whether it’ll carry over to that extent in important games remains to be seen but the league is surely happy with the early reduction in dead time.

Drellich notes some on the players’ side believe the 15-second minimum for pitchers with no one on base and the eight-second rule for hitters leave too little time. MLBPA executive director Tony Clark expressed broad frustration with the process over the weekend. “My hope despite the fact that nearly all of the things that we have seen that would otherwise be characterized as challenges could have been avoided with the input that the players offered when these rules were being constructed,” Clark said on Saturday (link via Associated Press). “My hope is that moving forward that the league continues to take the input of players to heart, such that each of the adjustments that we’ve seen that have been implemented this year are of benefit in the long run.”

It seems MLB has taken that sentiment enough to consider alterations to the new rules, though it’s not yet known if any adjustments will actually be made. There’s a small window to put anything else into play before Opening Day.

Rockies Option Nolan Jones

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The Rockies announced this evening that corner infielder/outfielder Nolan Jones has been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque. Reliever Noah Davis was also optioned, while non-roster invitees Logan Allen, Jeff Criswell, Braxton Fulford and Karl Kauffmann were all reassigned to minor league camp.

Jones’ demotion comes as a bit of a surprise. Colorado acquired the 24-year-old from the Guardians at the start of the offseason, sending infield prospect Juan Brito the other way. It was a rare swap of fairly well regarded young players, with Colorado taking the shot on a power hitter closer to the majors while Cleveland added an up-the-middle talent with excellent numbers in Low-A. Jones entered camp with what seemed to be a strong chance to crack the Opening Day team in Colorado, an opportunity that might not have been afforded on a deeper Guardians’ roster.

That became particularly true once the Rox lost starting second baseman Brendan Rodgers to what could be a season-ending shoulder dislocation. That opened the possibility of third baseman Ryan McMahon moving back to the keystone. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt declared that the plan a couple weeks ago. The club later added Mike Moustakas to the organization on a non-roster pact. Moustakas played a decent amount of second base between 2019-20 but has only logged 10 2/3 innings there over the past two seasons. Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweeted shortly after the signing that the Rockies viewed Moustakas solely as a corner infield/designated hitter option.

With McMahon likely headed to second, third base became a position for grabs. Jones, Elehuris Montero and non-roster veterans Moustakas and Harold Castro appeared the top candidates. Jones is now out of the mix to start the season, due at least in part to a disappointing spring performance. The left-handed hitter hit .186/.250/.233 in exhibition play, striking out 20 times in 48 plate appearances. Moustakas, Montero and Castro have all gotten off to better starts this spring.

A former second-round pick, Jones appeared among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects each season from 2019-21. He has generated intrigue for huge walk tallies and big power potential in his 6’4″ frame but lofty strikeout totals have been the biggest concern. Jones routinely struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances climbing the minor league ladder, including a 30% rate in Triple-A in 2021. To his credit, he trimmed that to 25.8% with a quality .276/.368/.463 line over 55 games there last year. That earned him a 28-game MLB look, in which he posted a .244/.309/.372 slash with 31 punchouts and eight walks in 94 plate appearances.

Jones will start the year with the Isotopes and should benefit from one of the most favorable offensive environments in pro ball. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him earn a recall to make his team debut before too long. In the interim, his option seems to bode well for Moustakas’ and Castro’s chances of cracking the roster out of camp.

The remainder of the corner spots should be spoken for if everyone’s healthy. The Rockies have agreed to terms with Jurickson Profar to play left field, thereby pushing Kris Bryant to right. First baseman C.J. Cron has dealt with some back discomfort but informed reporters today he expects to be ready for Opening Day (via Harding). The same is true for corner outfielder/DH Charlie Blackmon, who has also been slowed by a back problem but expects to participate in batting practice this evening (relayed by Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette).

MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

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The Braves made a surprising decision this week, optioning both Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett. That takes the duo out of consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation. Atlanta’s top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is settled, but the final slot now looks as if it’ll go to someone previously expected to open the year in the minors.

With injuries to Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard keeping them out of the season-opening mix, Elder and Anderson had seemed the favorites for the last rotation spot. Instead, it now seems the Braves will turn to a pitcher with no MLB experience out of the gate. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd look as if they’re battling for the final spot.

Jared Shuster

The 24-year-old Shuster was Atlanta’s first-round pick out of Wake Forest in 2020. He split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett, working to a 3.29 ERA in 139 1/3 innings. He punched out 26.2% of batters faced compared to a modest 6.9% walk rate overall. Shuster’s strikeout numbers dropped precipitously after a midseason jump to Triple-A, however. He’d fanned 30% of opponents in 17 appearances with Mississippi but that mark fell to 19.4% over 10 outings for the Stripers.

Baseball America considers Shuster the #3 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet credits him with a plus changeup and above-average control. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and scouts peg his slider as a fringe-average pitch. Shuster has thrown 10 2/3 innings this spring, allowing only one run with 16 strikeouts and two walks.

Dylan Dodd

Dodd, also 24, was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2021. An underslot senior signee coming out of Southeast Missouri State, Dodd moved across three minor league levels in his first full professional season. He started 16 games with High-A Rome and nine for Mississippi before closing out the ’22 campaign with one appearance in Gwinnett. The left-hander soaked up 142 innings over the three levels, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage while only walking 5.3% of opponents.

Ranked the #6 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, Dodd has a similar pitchability profile as Shuster. His fastball also sits in the low-90s and he leans heavily on a pair of advanced breaking pitches in his changeup and slider. He’s an excellent strike-thrower who’s generally regarded as a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Dodd has tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings in exhibition play, punching out 11 without handing out any free passes.

————-

The book on Shuster and Dodd is fairly similar. They’re both advanced left-handers with strong secondary stuff and control to drive the profile despite middling velocity. They’re each recent college draftees without a ton of professional experience but already in their mid-20s. Both pitchers are having excellent showings in Grapefruit League play, apparently vaulting themselves past Elder and Anderson on the immediate depth chart. Neither is yet on the 40-man roster but Atlanta has a vacancy after losing Dennis Santana on waivers last month and could clear more room by placing Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa on the 60-day injured list.

It stands to reason both Shuster and Dodd will make their MLB debuts at some point this year. One of the duo now figures to break camp with the big league club and assume a key role from the season’s outset. Who will get the nod?

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Be Braves' Fifth Starter To Open The Season?
Jared Shuster 68.49% (3,049 votes)
Dylan Dodd 22.89% (1,019 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 8.63% (384 votes)
Total Votes: 4,452

 

Mariners Release Drew Ellis

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The Mariners announced Friday evening that corner infielder Drew Ellis has been released. He’d been in camp as a non-roster invitee after being outrighted off Seattle’s roster last November.

Seattle claimed Ellis off waivers from the Diamondbacks last June. The Louisville product only played one MLB game with the M’s, going 1-3 with a strikeout. He spent 70 games at Triple-A Tacoma, hitting .231/.346/.488 with 15 home runs and a 14.2% walk rate. Ellis had posted similar numbers with Arizona’s top affiliate while playing in six big league contests for the Snakes. Despite the roughly average Triple-A production, his .141/.270/.212 line over 100 big league plate appearances led to him going unclaimed on waivers at the start of the offseason.

The M’s gave Ellis a look this spring as he looked to reestablish himself on the MLB radar. He went hitless in 17 at-bats, striking out in half of his 20 plate appearances. With Dylan Moore set to miss the start of the season due to an oblique strain, Seattle’s right-handed hitting infield depth is thinned out a couple weeks from the start of the season. Ellis’ rough exhibition showing wasn’t going to put him in position for a call-up, though, and Seattle now cuts him loose entirely.

Both Corey Brock of the Athletic and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link) suggested this evening that Moore’s injury could afford a season-opening job for non-roster invitee Mason McCoy. Like Moore and Ellis, McCoy is a right-handed hitting infielder. He’s capable of playing up the middle and coming off a .256/.332/.473 showing with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases over 503 plate appearances for Tacoma.

Ellis heads back out to free agency. Because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster, he won’t first have to clear waivers before hitting the open market. As a former second-round draftee with a .256/.374/.524 line in 826 career Triple-A plate appearances, he could find some interest on a minor league deal elsewhere.

Injury Notes: Blackburn, Pina, Morejon, Garcia, Szapucki

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The A’s will open the season with both starter Paul Blackburn and catcher Manny Piña on the injured list, manager Mark Kotsay told reporters this afternoon (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Blackburn still can’t throw at full strength after ripping the nail on his middle finger a couple weeks ago. Piña, meanwhile, was diagnosed with left wrist inflammation after meeting with a specialist yesterday. His wrist is currently in a brace and there’s no timetable for his return to baseball activity.

Neither development comes as a surprise. Kotsay said a few days ago both players were questionable for Opening Day. Blackburn’s absence doesn’t figure to be a long-term concern but will require an adjustment to the starting five. Blackburn would have been assured of an Opening Day rotation spot, joining Drew Rucinski and Shintaro Fujinami in that regard. James Kaprielian seems as if he’ll join them, as Kotsay indicated today the righty is on track to be ready for the season after offseason shoulder surgery. The A’s will need to make a move at catcher in the next two weeks, as Shea Langeliers is the only healthy backstop on the 40-man roster.

More injury updates around the game:

  • Padres southpaw Adrián Morejón went for an MRI after departing a weekend Spring Training game with elbow discomfort. Manager Bob Melvin provided a generally positive update this afternoon, telling the media that Morejón’s MRI came back clean of structural damage (video provided by 97.3 FM The Fan). Imaging did reveal some inflammation in the joint and the young hurler will be shut down from throwing until symptoms subside. That could be within a matter of days, according to Melvin. While Morejón may still need to open the season on the 15-day injured list, that there’s no structural damage warrants a sigh of relief considering his injury history. He lost most of 2021 and the first half of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Friars used Morejón exclusively out of the bullpen last year. They’ve floated the possibility of moving him back to the rotation at some point, though it remains to be seen if his latest elbow discomfort will affect the club’s usage plan.
  • The Pirates announced last week that reliever Jarlín García was being shut down after experiencing some discomfort in his throwing arm. Director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk provided an update yesterday, telling reporters the southpaw has a nerve injury in the biceps area (via Justice delos Santos of MLB.com). He’ll remain shut down from throwing for at least four to five weeks before going for more testing late next month. It’s clear García is in for an extended absence to start the season, as even a best-case scenario in which he can start throwing again in mid-April will require a ramp-up period lasting into May. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pittsburgh place him on the 60-day injured list at some point. García signed a $2.5MM free agent deal over the winter after being non-tendered by the Giants despite a 3.74 ERA in 65 innings last season.
  • Giants reliever Thomas Szapucki will meet with a thoracic outlet syndrome specialist next week, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. He’d been sidelined of late by discomfort in his elbow area and there’s evidently some concern it’s related to the condition. Thoracic outlet syndrome has become a fairly prevalent issue for pitchers in recent years, typically requiring a surgical procedure that involves the removal of a rib to reduce nerve pressure in the arm. The track record for players returning from that issue is mixed. While players like Merrill Kelly have come back better than ever, the likes of Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey have never regained their pre-surgery form.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation

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Even after trading Pablo López for Luis Arraez as part of their effort to overhaul the lineup, the Marlins go into 2023 with a strong group of starting pitchers. Defending Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara is followed by Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and offseason pickup Johnny Cueto. The fifth spot has at least been a bit up in the air, with each of Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera having a case for the job out of camp.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that Cabrera appears to have moved ahead of Garrett on the depth chart. Cabrera has had the edge with regards to Spring Training performance. He’s tossed five innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts and a pair of walks; Garrett, on the other hand, has been tagged for ten runs in 9 1/3 frames with seven punchouts, three walks and a hit batter.

There are certainly more important factors in the club’s decision than small-sample performances in exhibition games. One could argue Cabrera entered camp with the upper hand given his prospect status and higher-octane stuff. The right-hander worked to a 3.01 ERA over 14 starts last year, a solid rookie showing in spite of elbow tendinitis that resulted in a six-week injured list stint. Cabrera averaged north of 96 MPH on his fastball and generated swinging strikes on an excellent 13.3% of his total pitches. That power stuff had previously gotten him onto Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list each season from 2020-22.

The only area of concern for the 24-year-old Cabrera was some inconsistency in his strike-throwing. He walked an elevated 11.3% of batters faced, relying on an unsustainable 86.1% strand rate and .207 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA around 3.00. Cabrera’s season was overwhelmingly positive overall, though, and the organization no doubt anticipates him pitching alongside Alcantara and Luzardo towards the top of the staff for years to come.

Garrett, 25, is a former seventh overall pick and top prospect in his own right. His stock had dimmed a bit in recent years thanks to inconsistent minor league performances. Garrett had a quietly strong 2022 campaign, though, posting a 3.15 ERA in seven Triple-A starts. More impressively, he worked to a 3.58 ERA with better than average strikeout (24.1%), walk (6.4%) and ground-ball (47.8%) numbers in 17 big league outings. Garrett’s 11.8% swinging strike percentage was solid despite a pedestrian 91.4 MPH average fastball.

Both Cabrera and Garrett figure to get into the Miami rotation throughout the season, as virtually no team goes through a 162-game schedule without any injuries. It’d seem Cabrera is trending towards first crack, with Jackson suggesting that Miami is likelier to option Garrett to Triple-A Jacksonville than have him start the season in long relief at the MLB level. The Alabama native has one minor league option year remaining, as does Cabrera.

Dylan Moore Diagnosed With Grade One Oblique Strain

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Mariners utility player Dylan Moore was diagnosed with a Grade One strain in his oblique, he informed reporters this afternoon (relayed by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com). While that’s the lowest degree, any oblique strain typically comes with a recovery time of multiple weeks.

Moore indeed indicated he’ll be shut down from baseball activity for between two and four weeks. While the earlier end of that timeline could have him beginning to ramp back up around Opening Day, he certainly won’t jump right into game action as soon as he’s cleared to start working out. It seems a lock he’ll open the season on the injured list and, considering he didn’t play in a single Spring Training game, likely head out on a minor league rehab assignment to get some game action before his 2023 debut at the MLB level.

This will be Moore’s fifth big league campaign. He has posted alternate below-average and above-average showings at the plate, typically in a part-time capacity. He’s coming off a strong 2022 campaign. Moore hit only .224 but worked walks at a 13.3% rate, resulting in a .368 on-base percentage that was well better than the .312 league average. He also swiped 21 bases in 104 contests, his second consecutive season topping 20 steals.

The Mariners signed Moore to a three-year, $8.875MM deal over the offseason to buy out his final two arbitration seasons and a would-be free agent year. He’d been set to reprise his role as one of Scott Servais’ top options off the bench. Moore has played everywhere aside from catcher in his career, with the majority of his work coming in the middle infield and corner outfield spots.

Seattle has Kolten Wong and J.P. Crawford lined up for middle infield work. The lefty-hitting Wong and right-handed Moore were expected to platoon at second base and while that could eventually still be the case, that’ll be put on hold for the time being. Tommy La Stella offers some insurance at second base but, like Wong, hits from the left side.

Sam Haggerty is a switch-hitter who has been far better against left-handed pitching, though he’s worked far more in the outfield than at second base as a big leaguer. Drew Ellis and Mason McCoy are right-handed hitting infielders in camp as non-roster players. Ellis has struck out in 10 of 17 at-bats this spring, while McCoy is 9-25 with four strikeouts and a walk.

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