Anthony Franco | MLB Trade Rumors

Pirates Sign First-Rounder Termarr Johnson

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 8:15pm CDT

The Pirates signed fourth overall pick Termarr Johnson this afternoon, the club announced. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) he’ll receive a $7.219MM signing bonus that’s a bit above the $7.01MM accompanying slot value.

Top two selections Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones were the only players in the class to beat Johnson’s bonus. That’s no surprise, as the left-handed hitting infielder was a consensus top five talent available. FanGraphs and The Athletic each placed Johnson third on their pre-draft rankings. He placed fourth at Baseball America and second at ESPN.

Just as there’s little disagreement about the 18-year-old’s pedigree, reports of his skillset are similar across the board. All four outlets call Johnson a future plus or better hitter, praising both his bat-to-ball skills and surprising bat speed for a 5’8″ player. Keith Law of the Athletic notes that some scouts believe Johnson is the best high school hitter they’ve seen in more than a decade, while ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel indicated his profile is broadly reminiscent to that of José Ramírez or Rafael Devers.

It’d be unfair to expect any high school player to become a superstar of that caliber, but evaluators have been effusive in their praise of his offensive upside. Johnson doesn’t have a traditionally projectable frame given his stature, and all four outlets indicate he’s unlikely to stick at shortstop. There’s a general agreement the Atlanta native could be an impactful bat-first second baseman at his peak, with Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs pointing to Brandon Lowe as a general comp for this style of player.

With Johnson signed, each of the top ten overall selections have agreed to terms. It’s expected that everyone selected on the first day of the draft will sign before Monday’s deadline. Jim Callis of MLB.com wrote this morning that Mets third-round pick Brandon Sproat, a right-hander out of the University of Florida, looks to be the highest selection leaning towards foregoing pro ball this summer.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 7:43pm CDT

With four days to go until Tuesday evening’s trade deadline, the floodgates of activity have yet to really open. There’s nevertheless been plenty of chatter about the game’s top trade candidate, Juan Soto. The Nationals superstar will continue to be the talk of the summer market until the club either pulls the trigger on a deal or the deadline passes.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers and Rangers are among the teams generally viewed as those best positioned to pull off the blockbuster. That wasn’t a comprehensive list of clubs with interest, although Jim Bowden of the Athletic tweets this evening that only four clubs remain in the market. Bowden adds that the Padres and Cardinals are among that group of four, but the identities of the other two teams remain unknown. To be clear, it’s not a certainty that no one besides St. Louis, San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas is still in the mix.

Previous reports have tied the Mariners, Giants, Mets and Yankees to Soto, but the general belief is the Nats aren’t interested in dealing him within the NL East. Meanwhile, Heyman wrote last night the Nats “seem focused” on teams other than the Yankees. That’s not to say the Yankees are out, as Heyman unsurprisingly notes they’re still interested in Soto after acquiring Andrew Benintendi from the Royals.

The Cardinals, Padres and Dodgers are obvious entrants into the Soto bidding. They’re each 2022 contenders with a robust collection of young major league and/or farm talent, and all three have proven bold enough to trade for star players in recent years. The Rangers are perhaps a more surprising entrant into the market since they’re not in the playoff mix this year, but Texas has long maintained they expect to compete in earnest by next season. With Soto controllable for an additional two seasons, the Rangers could enter the fray with an eye towards adding another star to the 2023-24 rosters after big free agent pickups of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas has indeed been in contact with the Washington front office and continues to monitor the market. Whether they’ll be willing to meet the Nationals’ understandably astronomical asking price — and top the offers of clubs that are eyeing Soto as a target to improve their 2022 odds as well — remains to be seen. Grant suggests the Rangers may prefer to focus their resources, both financial and in terms of prospect capital, on their efforts to add talent to the starting rotation. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last night in an appearance on Fox Sports that the general expectation is that Texas will be outbid by a more motivated club (Twitter link).

There’ll be more clarity on the Soto negotiations over the next few days. One thing that does not appear to be under consideration: the sides reopening extension talks before the trade deadline. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post hears the Nats aren’t planning to make another extension offer (Twitter link). General manager Mike Rizzo has confirmed that Washington made a 15-year, $440MM proposal that Soto rejected a few weeks ago. That apparently marked the final extent to which the Nationals were willing to go, at least this summer. That’s not to say the Nats have to force a trade imminently, since his remaining arbitration eligibility would allow them to revisit extension and/or trade talks next offseason if he’s not dealt before Tuesday.

Padres, Joe Musgrove Nearing Extension Agreement

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 7:20pm CDT

7:20pm: Heyman reports (on Twitter) that San Diego and Musgrove are close to an agreement on a five-year deal that’d guarantee roughly $100MM.

7:14pm: Extension discussions between the Padres and Joe Musgrove are “gaining momentum,” reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (Twitter link). The sides have still yet to come to an agreement, but Lin indicates there’s mutual optimism a deal could be hammered out by next week.

The generally optimistic tenor has been prevalent for the past couple weeks. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported over the All-Star Break there was a belief on both sides a deal could get done before the start of the season’s unofficial second half. That obviously didn’t come to pass, but that evidently hasn’t deterred or meaningfully set back talks.

Terms currently under discussion are unclear, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Friars made an offer around the Break that resembled the free agent deals given to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray. Gausman received a five-year, $110MM deal from the Blue Jays. Ray signed with the Mariners for five years and $115MM in a deal that also included an opt-out opportunity following the 2024 season.

Aside from the record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer, the Gausman and Ray contracts represented the top commitments to free agent starters last offseason. That makes for a reasonable comparison point for the Padres, but Musgrove and his representatives at Full Circle Sports Management could reasonably seek to top those markers. The San Diego righty carries a career-low 2.63 ERA through 109 1/3 innings this season, a bit below the respective 2.81 and 2.84 marks posted by Gausman and Ray last year. Both Gausman and Ray missed bats at a better clip than Musgrove has, but the latter has a slightly better walk rate than the 2021 free agents.

Musgrove’s platform season is shaping up to be similar to those of Gausman and Ray, and Musgrove may have a slightly better long-term track record. Ray had an awful year during the shortened 2020 campaign in which he posted a 6.62 ERA. He’d shown top-of-the-rotation flashes earlier in his career, but his control and home run rates fluctuated a fair amount. Gausman had a very strong shortened season, but he’d struggled during the previous full campaign. Musgrove has a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his past three years, with a cumulative 3.08 figure through 57 starts since the beginning of 2020.

A new contract would begin with Musgrove’s age-30 season, giving him a strong case for a six-year deal at an annual rate that’d push him above the $110MM – 115MM range for a total guarantee. At the same time, it’d be plenty understandable if Musgrove were a bit less concerned about maximizing his earning potential to remain with the Padres. He’s a San Diego-area native who has been open about his desire to remain with the organization. It’s uncommon for players of his magnitude to even discuss an in-season extension when they’re mere months away from the open market.

The appeal for the Padres in trying to keep Musgrove around is fairly evident. He’s one of the sport’s best pitchers, and the Friars could lose Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency this winter. Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are only under contract for two more seasons, and Nick Martinez can opt out of his deal after any of the next three years. MacKenzie Gore is the only rotation building block who’s certain to be around two seasons from now, and the Friars can build a long-term starting staff around the young southpaw and Musgrove if they can finalize an extension.

Giants Place Joc Pederson On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 6:16pm CDT

The Giants have placed outfielder Joc Pederson on the seven-day injured list, which is specific to concussion-like symptoms. Infielder Jason Vosler has been recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to take his active roster spot.

Pederson has been one of the Giants more productive hitters this season. Signed to a $6MM deal over the winter, he’s hit 17 home runs in only 285 plate appearances. Pederson has a .242/.319/.492 line, splitting his time between the corner outfield and designated hitter. It’s something of a bounceback showing for the 30-year-old, who posted below-average offensive numbers between 2020-21 after a generally strong run with the Dodgers.

While Pederson could return to the lineup within a week, his trip to the IL comes at an interesting time for the Giants. San Francisco enters play tonight with a 49-50 record, placing them three games back in the NL Wild Card race. The next few days could prove pivotal towards determining how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff approach the deadline. They’ll have to navigate the next few games without one of their better left-handed bats.

If the Giants did decide to sell, Pederson would be an interesting trade candidate himself. He’s an affordable platoon bat who’d certainly appeal to contenders searching for that kind of player. As an impending free agent, Pederson would be among the likeliest players the Giants could deal if they moved anyone. He checked in 22nd on MLBTR’s list of the top 60 deadline trade candidates this afternoon. Players on the IL can still be traded, so the Giants could move Pederson before next Tuesday’s deadline if other clubs continue to express interest despite the concussion symptoms.

White Sox Outright Parker Markel

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 5:59pm CDT

5:59pm: MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (on Twitter) that Markel has accepted his outright assignment and will remain in the organization.

4:26pm: The White Sox announced this afternoon they’ve outrighted reliever Parker Markel off the 40-man roster. Chicago hadn’t previously announced the righty had been designated for assignment, but he’s evidently already cleared waivers. The 40-man tally drops to 39.

Markel spent about a month and a half on the 40-man roster, having been added off waivers from the A’s in early June. The 31-year-old has spent his entire stint in the organization on optional assignment to Triple-A Charlotte, where he’s struggled. Markel has tossed 14 innings with the Knights, posting a 6.43 ERA despite a quality 28.8% strikeout rate. That’s largely due to strike-throwing issues, as the 6’5″ righty has walked 15.2% of batters faced.

That blend of strikeouts and erratic control is nothing new for Markel. He’d fanned 35.4% of opponents with the A’s top affiliate earlier in the season, managing a 1.89 ERA despite a 12.7% walk percentage. That earned him a brief big league look in Oakland, where he tossed three scoreless innings in his first MLB action since 2019.

Markel has previously been outrighted in his career, meaning he’ll have the right to elect minor league free agency. The team didn’t announce whether he plans to do so or will stick with the Knights and try to work his way back onto the roster.

Red Sox, Jose Peraza Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 5:34pm CDT

The Red Sox are in agreement with José Peraza on a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He’ll head to Triple-A Worcester.

Peraza, 28, has some experience in Boston. He spent the shortened 2020 campaign with the Red Sox, one of four teams with which he’s played as a big leaguer. The switch-hitting utilityman has also suited up with the Dodgers, Reds (where he’s spent the bulk of his career) and Mets. A speedster with plus contact skills, he owns a .266/.306/.372 line in parts of seven MLB campaigns, rarely striking out but never drawing many walks or hitting for much power.

Last season, Peraza appeared in 64 games for the Mets, seeing virtually all of his defensive action at either second or third base. He hit only .204/.266/.380, managing six home runs but running a career-worst .209 batting average on balls in play. The Mets waived him at the end of the season, and he landed with the Yankees on a minor league contract.

Peraza has appeared in 75 games with the Yankees top affiliate this season. Peraza hit .239/.293/.368 for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, striking out in only 11.8% of his plate appearances with a 5.2% walk rate. He was released from that deal two weeks ago, and he’ll now try to get back to the big leagues with Boston.

Marlins Place Trevor Rogers On Injured List, Designate Willians Astudillo

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 4:33pm CDT

The Marlins have made a handful of moves in advance of tonight’s series opener with the Mets (relayed by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Starter Trevor Rogers has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 26, with lower back spasms. Miami also selected reliever Jake Fishman and infielder Charles Leblanc onto the big league roster, designating Willians Astudillo for assignment. To clear a second 40-man roster spot, the Marlins transferred Max Meyer from the 15-day to the 60-day IL. That was a formality, as the top prospect is set to undergo Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the next year-plus.

Rogers had been slated to start tomorrow, but the Marlins will obviously have to find a replacement. The IL stint is the latest in what has been a frustrating season for the southpaw, who looked to have broken out as one of the game’s top young pitchers a year ago. Rogers pitched to a 2.64 ERA and earned an All-Star nod in 2021, but he’s gone in the opposite direction this season. He owns just a 5.85 ERA through 87 2/3 innings, watching his strikeout rate plummet from 28.5% to 20.8% in the process.

Astudillo has bounced on and off the roster a couple times this season. The former Twins utilityman signed a minor league deal with Miami over the winter, and he’s posted an excellent .321/.364/.557 showing through 33 Triple-A contests. Astudillo, owner of perhaps the sport’s best bat-to-ball skills, has only gone down on strikes in 4.3% of his minor league plate appearances, but he’s not made much of an impact in 21 MLB contests. Despite fanning in just three of his 55 trips to the dish, he owns a meager .241/.255/.296 showing with one homer and a 1.8% walk rate.

The Marlins will presumably again place Astudillo on waivers over the next few days. He’s already passed through the wire unclaimed this year and accepted an outright assignment to their top affiliate in Jacksonville. It’s possible he eventually winds up back with the Jumbo Shrimp, but he’d again have the right to elect minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed.

Leblanc and the aptly-named Fishman are each joining the Marlins for what’ll be their major league debuts. The former is a 26-year-old infielder who was a fourth-round draftee of the Rangers out of the University of Pittsburgh back in 2016. Leblanc spent six years in the Texas system, mostly splitting his time between second and third base, before signing a minor league deal with Miami last offseason. The right-handed hitter has impressed over 360 plate appearances in Jacksonville, hitting .302/.381/.503 with 14 home runs. Leblanc’s 27.2% strikeout rate is higher than ideal, but he’s done enough from a power perspective to get an MLB call.

Fishman, 27, also entered pro ball in that 2016 draft. He fell to the 30th round, where the Blue Jays selected the Union College product. Fishman briefly reached Triple-A in the Toronto system before qualifying for minor league free agency during the 2020-21 offseason. He’s spent the past two years working as a multi-inning reliever in Jacksonville. This season, the southpaw has an excellent 1.87 ERA with a robust 54.3% ground-ball rate across 43 1/3 innings, posting roughly average strikeout and walk rates (24.4% and 9.1%, respectively).

Mets Designate Travis Jankowski For Assignment

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 3:21pm CDT

The Mets have designated outfielder Travis Jankowski for assignment, tweets Tim Britton of the Athletic. The move clears an active roster spot for the recently-acquired Tyler Naquin. New York also recalled Sam Clay and Stephen Nogosek, optioned David Peterson to Triple-A Syracuse and confirmed the previously-reported placement of Drew Smith on the 15-day injured list.

Adding Naquin supplanted Jankowski as the left-handed hitting fourth outfielder. New York’s starting outfield of Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte will continue to assume the bulk of the playing time, but Naquin adds more power to the bench. Jankowski is a lighter-hitting speed and defense specialist, but each of Naquin and Marte is capable of handling center field at times when Nimmo needs a rest.

The Mets signed Jankowski to a minor league contract in Spring Training, and he cracked the Opening Day roster. He lost a good chunk of the year after fracturing a metacarpal in his left hand, and he’s not seen a whole lot of action in Queens. While Jankowski has made his way into 43 games, he’s tallied only 63 plate appearances as a primary pinch-runner or defensive replacement. He’s drawn eight walks against only nine strikeouts, but he’s collected just nine hits (all singles).

Jankowski has never been a power threat, tallying nine homers in a little more than 1200 career plate appearances. His combination of plate discipline, baserunning and ability to cover all three outfield positions has allowed him to spend parts of eight years in the big leagues — primarily in a fourth/fifth outfield capacity. He owns a .236/.320/.311 line as a big leaguer.

New York already created a 40-man roster spot for Naquin last night, but designating Jankowski for assignment was the only way to take him off the active roster. He has more than five years of major league service, giving him the right to refuse an option to the minor leagues. He’ll be traded or waived in the coming days, and he’d be able to elect free agency if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Mariners Claim Phillips Valdez Off Waivers From Red Sox

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 3:17pm CDT

The Mariners have claimed reliever Phillips Valdez off waivers from the Red Sox and optioned him to Triple-A Tacoma, per a club announcement. Seattle already had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster, so no additional moves were necessary.

Valdez lost his roster spot in Boston earlier this week. The right-hander had made 13 appearances this season, pitching to a 4.41 ERA across 16 1/3 frames. He had a modest 18.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% swinging strike percentage, but he induced ground-balls at a very strong 58.7% clip. That’s generally in line with the career track record for Valdez, who has a 4.56 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and a 53.9% grounder percentage through 102 2/3 innings between the Rangers and Red Sox over the past four years.

The 30-year-old has an even better 64.1% grounder rate through 14 appearances with the Sox’s top affiliate in Worcester this year, although he’s walked an untenable 19.4% of hitters at the level. He’s in his final option year, so the M’s can keep him in Tacoma for the remainder of the 2022 campaign if he sticks on the 40-man roster.

2022 Top 60 Trade Candidates: Late July Edition

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 2:14pm CDT

With just four days until the August 2 trade deadline, we’re approaching the opening of the floodgates of activity. The first major domino of deadline season fell Wednesday night, when the Royals shipped Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees for a trio of pitching prospects. With that in mind, it’s time for an updated look at the players who could find themselves on the move.

As always, this list is loosely ordered in terms of both likelihood of being traded and value to an acquiring club. Rental players are inherently going to carry less long-term value but are generally likelier to be moved by virtue of their impending free agency. There’s an inherent subjectivity in striking that balance.

Benintendi was our No. 2 trade candidate when we did the first iteration of this list in early July. While many of the players on that list are still likely to switch uniforms, plenty of previously unexpected trade candidates have popped up in the meantime. That leads to a change at the top of the list, with no one else dominating headlines quite like a 23-year-old superstar who’s now on the market.

1. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals

Soto turned down the Nationals latest extension offer, a proposed 15-year, $440MM pact. That at least halted, if not entirely ended, discussions about a potential long-term deal. Washington has been the worst team in the National League without a clear path back to respectability next season. If the front office believes they’re without a clear path to extending Soto, there’s a strong case for dealing him rather than watching him play out much of his remaining arbitration eligibility on bad teams.

None of that is to say the Nationals have to or will trade Soto in the next few days. There’d be almost as much demand for two years of a player of his caliber next offseason. An acquiring team would lose out on a chance to have Soto for a playoff push this summer if the Nationals hang onto him, but waiting until the offseason allows the front office more time to evaluate young players and/or prospects of interest. It’d also open up the number of players available, as 2022 draftees are ineligible to be dealt until after this season (even as players to be named later).

Soto’s trade candidacy is virtually unparalleled in recent memory. He’s won two Silver Sluggers, appeared in two All-Star games and been a key contributor on a World Series winner before turning 24. He’s a career .291/.426/.538 hitter (all stats referenced through play July 27). Even in a bit of a “down” 2022 season by his incredible standard, Soto has the fifth-highest on-base percentage among qualifiers (.400) and has slugged 20 home runs. Even with a $17.1MM salary that’ll see massive jumps in each of his final two seasons of arbitration-eligibility, he’s an absolute financial bargain. Soto’s arguably the best hitter on the planet, and the Nationals would only move him for a haul of controllable talent unlike one we’ve seen in years.

2. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs

While Soto’s a relatively new entrant into legitimate trade rumors, Contreras has looked a lock to go for months. The Cubs and his representatives reportedly haven’t had any extension talks. He’s an impending free agent having a career year on a non-competitive team, carrying a .258/.373/.470 line. An acquiring team could eye Contreras either as an upgrade over their #1 catcher, or as a bat-first player capable of rotating between catcher, first base and designated hitter. He’s making $9.625MM in his final year before free agency.

3. Josh Bell, 1B, Nationals

Bell also falls in the ’rental bat on a non-playoff team’ category. He’s a switch-hitter with far better bat-to-ball skills than most players with his level of power. Bell’s strikeout rate sits at a career-low 13.5%, and he owns a .302/.387/.490 line in what has been arguably the best season of his career. As with Contreras, he’s sure to be the big offensive upgrade for some contender in the next few days. Bell is playing on a $10MM salary.

4. Luis Castillo, SP, Reds

5. Frankie Montas, SP, A’s

6. Tyler Mahle, SP, Reds

This trio has been linked for virtually all of deadline season, with good reason. They’re each on teams that slashed payroll over the winter and have fallen into last place in their divisions. They’re arbitration-eligible through 2023. All three have missed some time with shoulder issues on the year, but they’re each healthy now. Most importantly, they’re all very good, at least upper mid-rotation caliber hurlers. They’re the most likely marquee starters to actually change hands.

Castillo owns a sparkling 2.86 ERA with above-average strikeout and ground-ball rates through 14 starts. He’s consistently been one of the game’s top pitchers in recent seasons, and he’s at peak form heading into the deadline. Going back to June 1, he owns a 2.62 ERA while holding opponents to a .203/.281/.318 line. Montas has an ERA of 3.37 or lower in three of the past four seasons, including a 3.18 mark in 104 2/3 frames this year. Like Castillo, he throws hard, misses bats, gets grounders and generally pounds the strike zone.

Mahle has the spottiest control of the three, but he has every bit their strikeout prowess. He’s been dramatically better on the road than at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly ballpark, so it’s easy enough to project him being a little more consistent in a friendlier environment. Mahle had a rough start to the season, but he owns a 3.22 ERA since the beginning of June.

7. Ian Happ, LF, Cubs

Happ is making contact at a career-best rate, and it’s translated to arguably the best season of his career (.282/.366/.446). He’s a well-rounded player — a switch-hitter with power, plate discipline and this season’s decent bat-to-ball skills. Happ’s probably limited to left field, but he’s a capable defender there. He’s making $6.85MM and arbitration-eligible through next season, so a trade isn’t a foregone conclusion the way it is with Contreras, but it’s probably the best opportunity for the Cubs to maximize the value of a return.

8. J.D. Martinez, DH, Red Sox

The Red Sox find themselves with an uncertain direction as they near the deadline. They’re 3 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card race, with two additional teams between them and the final playoff spot. They have a -14 run differential on the season and a 7-17 record this month. That could point towards moving some shorter-term players, but they’re only a year removed from an ALCS appearance and it’s fair to chalk up some of their recent struggles to injury.

If the Red Sox do seriously consider offers on their impending free agents, Martinez would be perhaps the top hitter (non-Soto division) available. He’s no longer the 40-plus home run bat he was during his first couple seasons in Boston, but he owns a .295/.363/.471 line. He’s still a middle-of-the-order fixture who’d draw plenty of interest from clubs looking to add offense, even due what remains of a $19.375MM salary. Nearing age 35, Martinez would be a borderline qualifying offer candidate next winter if the Red Sox hold him.

9. Brandon Drury, INF, Reds

An offseason minor league signee, Drury has been an excellent find for the Reds. He’s hitting .268/.329/.512 with 19 homers while playing all around the infield, primarily at second/third base. An impending free agent, he’s emerged as the most interesting of the Reds rental trade chips. Paired with a thin infield market this summer, Drury should be an appealing target for a number of teams.

10. David Robertson, RP, Cubs

Robertson is probably the top target for clubs looking for short-term bullpen help. The veteran reliever has a 1.83 ERA through 39 1/3 innings with the Cubs, striking out 31.4% of batters faced. He’s issuing a few more walks than one would like, but he’s missing bats, handling hitters from both sides of the plate and has a salary that’s likely to wind up in the $5MM range. Robertson has plenty of late-game experience over his career, so a contender should feel good about plugging right into high-leverage spots in a pennant race.

11. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Angels

Syndergaard might wind up being the best rental starter to move this summer. The Angels have fallen out of the race, and Syndergaard would be ineligible for a qualifying offer as a free agent after receiving one from the Mets last year. He’s not throwing as hard or missing as many bats as he did during his peak days in Queens, but he’s pounding the strike zone and generally keeping the Halos in games. He owns a 3.83 ERA through 80 innings and looks like a possible mid-rotation target for contenders, although his $21MM salary is hefty enough it could deter teams with tight budgetary limits unless the Angels pay down some money.

12. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox

The same dilemma the Red Sox are facing with Martinez applies to Eovaldi, who’ll be a free agent at the end of the year himself. The righty’s 4.32 ERA/4.59 FIP through 81 1/3 innings aren’t eye-catching, but that’s largely attributable to one horrible start where he gave up five home runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Astros. His strikeout rate is roughly league average, he’s one of the sport’s best control arms, and he’s inducing a fair number of ground-balls. Eovaldi probably isn’t much changed from last year’s 182 1/3 inning, 3.75 ERA form. He’s playing this year on a $17MM salary and would probably receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Red Sox keep him through the end of the season.

13. Jose Quintana, SP, Pirates

14. Drew Smyly, SP, Cubs

Quintana and Smyly are each having decent seasons as impending free agents on non-contenders. They’ll be viewed as possible 5th/6th starter options for a better team. Both southpaws have lower than average walk rates and an ERA below 4.00 despite below-average strikeout rates. Quintana, who’s playing this season on a $2MM salary, is also affordable enough to appeal to virtually every club. Smyly’s a bit costlier, making $4.25MM with a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for next season, but he’s also likely to wind up on the move.

15. Michael Fulmer, RP, Tigers

16. Mychal Givens, RP, Cubs

17. Andrew Chafin, RP, Tigers

18. Matt Moore, RP, Rangers

19. Chris Martin, RP, Cubs

A host of potential impending free agents (Chafin’s contract contains a $6.5MM player option for next season), this quintet fits the middle relief/setup archetype of which contenders are in need each deadline season. Chafin and Moore are left-handers; Fulmer, Givens and Martin throw from the right side. Moore’s missing plenty of bats during his first year after converting from the rotation to the bullpen. Chafin and Martin have excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Fulmer and Givens each have elevated walk rates but an ERA below 3.00.

20. Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Royals

Merrifield has been a fixture on these kinds of lists for years, and it seems the Royals are more willing than ever to deal him. It’s not a great time to do so, as he has a mediocre .242/.293/.347 line on the season. Yet Merrifield has a long track record as a prototypical leadoff type, and he’s still making plenty of contact. Capable of playing second base and right field, he’s at least an appealing utility piece for a contender. Merrifield is making $7MM this year and under contract for $6.75MM next season.

21. Carlos Rodon, SP, Giants

The Giants are, in some respects, the NL analogue to the Red Sox. Fresh off a 107-win campaign, they’d certainly anticipated heading into deadline season as buyers. For a while, it seemed as if they would, but they’ve lost seven straight games to fall two games under .500. San Francisco has a positive run differential and a clearer path back to the postseason than Boston — they’re 3 1/2 out of the final playoff spot with only one team in between — but they have to give serious thought to moving some players, particularly if they fall further back over the weekend.

Rodon is likely headed for free agency after the season, having recently reached the innings threshold necessary to trigger the opt-out clause in his contract. There’d be no shortage of suitors for a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA and a 31.4% strikeout rate, his second straight year with top-of-the-rotation production. Rodon would have plenty of appeal; it’s just a question of the Giants’ willingness to move him, which would more or less require conceding the unlikelihood of a playoff berth in 2022. They’re reportedly not yet at that point.

22. Joc Pederson, LF, Giants

23. Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B, Giants

If the Giants do go that route, there’d be little reason not to follow through by looking for suitors on Pederson and Flores. They’re each impending free agents who’d draw plenty of interest. Pederson is playing on a $6MM contract; Flores is making just $3.5MM. The former is a platoon corner outfielder, but he’s popped 17 homers and carries a .244/.319/.496 line on the season. Plenty of teams could use a left-handed hitting outfielder with that kind of production. Flores has some infield flexibility and a history of hitting left-handed pitching very well. He owns a .245/.326/.437 overall mark on the year.

24. Trey Mancini, 1B, Orioles

The Orioles have kept right around the Wild Card mix, entering play Friday three games back. That progress seems like it’ll dissuade the front office from trading away controllable building blocks like Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. Still, actually reaching the playoffs this year seems unlikely, and Mancini is headed for free agency with just a mutual option remaining on his deal. The O’s wouldn’t get an enormous return, since Mancini has slumped of late and is down to a fine but not overwhelming .268/.345/.401 season line. The club might just deem it better to hold Mancini, a beloved clubhouse and community presence, for the stretch run. He’s playing the year on a $7.5MM salary, plus a $250K buyout of next year’s option.

25. Donovan Solano, 2B/3B, Reds

26. David Peralta, OF, D-Backs

27. Ben Gamel, OF, Pirates

28. Tommy Pham, OF, Reds

A collection of solid rental bats on non-contenders, there’s a good chance for all four of Solano, Peralta, Gamel, and Pham to be dealt. Solano offers the most defensive value of the group, as he’s capable of playing second or third base. The other three are strictly corner outfielders. Solano has missed much of the year to injury but mashed in 27 games since returning. Gamel and Peralta are all solid left-handed bats who could shoulder the larger side of a platoon. Pham’s a right-handed hitter with excellent plate discipline and a capable contact/power combination.

29. Sean Murphy, C, A’s

30. Ramon Laureano, CF, A’s

The A’s sell-off has been well-chronicled. Aside from Montas, Murphy and Laureano are their two most valuable trade chips. They’re each quality defenders at up-the-middle positions (Murphy at catcher, Laureano in center field), and both have slightly above-average offensive numbers. With both arbitration-eligible through the end of the 2025 season, Oakland doesn’t have to force a deal on either player. Murphy could be the likelier to go, since the A’s have top catching prospect Shea Langeliers playing well in Triple-A.

31. Nelson Cruz, DH, Nationals

Cruz has looked like a midseason trade candidate from virtually the moment he signed with the Nationals last offseason. Washington would certainly listen, but the 42-year-old slugger looks as if he’s finally tailed off. He’s hitting only .231/.317/.347, and he carries a .229/.304/.385 line going back to last year’s trade from the Twins to the Rays. That’s not appealing output from a player with no defensive value, particularly one playing this season on a $15MM salary. Still, Cruz’s long-term track record and high regard as a clubhouse presence could get him a shot with a contender, particularly if the Nats are willing to kick in some money to facilitate a deal.

32. Scott Barlow, RP, Royals

33. Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers

34. Joe Mantiply, RP, Diamondbacks

35. Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals

36. Anthony Bass, RP, Marlins

37. Gregory Soto, RP, Tigers

Everyone in this group is controllable beyond this season, and some of them will surely stick with their current clubs past the deadline. Yet they’re all good but not elite late-game arms on teams unlikely to make the postseason in 2022. It’s easy enough to envision their teams selling relatively high on anyone in this tier, with Barlow and Jimenez probably the likeliest to move.

38. Christian Vazquez, C, Red Sox

Aside from Contreras, Vazquez could wind up being the top rental catcher on the block. As with Martinez and Eovaldi, whether he moves will depend on the approach the Boston front office takes to their recent skid. Owner of a .281/.326/.432 season line with a strong defensive reputation, Vazquez would be an appealing target for teams searching for catching help. He’s playing out the final year of his deal on a $7MM salary.

39. Dominic Smith, DH, Mets

40. J.D. Davis, DH, Mets

There’s been plenty of speculation about the Mets moving one of Smith or Davis, neither of whom is hitting at the level the Mets have wanted out of the DH position. New York’s acquisitions of Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin have been the firmest indication at least one of Smith or Davis was likely to move. Smith, as a left-handed hitter, seems most displaced by the Vogelbach pickup, but the Mets reportedly remain on the hunt for further offensive upgrades. If they land another bat, perhaps both Smith and Davis could be dealt. Both hitters are arbitration-eligible through 2024.

41. Joey Gallo, OF, Yankees

42. Miguel Andujar, 3B/OF, Yankees

On the topic of struggling New York players probably displaced by a trade pickup, the Yankees would seem to be particularly motivated to move Gallo after the Benintendi deal. The blockbuster acquisition of last summer’s deadline hasn’t panned out, with Gallo hitting at just a .160/.293/.371 level in pinstripes. At his best, he’s a prodigious power bat with strong baserunning and defense, but he’s looked lost at the plate for virtually a calendar year. It may be tough for New York to find a taker. Gallo, who’s making $10.275MM, is in his final year of arbitration-eligibility. His recent struggles mean he’s not a great solution for a contender looking for an immediate corner outfield upgrade. Yet his impending free agency reduces the interest of a buy-low for a non-competitive club, with no long-term contractual control if he does turn things around in a new setting.

Andujar, meanwhile, is reportedly being shopped by the Yankees. The former AL Rookie of the Year runner-up hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity in the Bronx since shoulder surgery wiped out his 2019 season, but he’s expanded his defensive profile by learning left field and first base, and he continues to rake in the minors. Andujar requested a trade earlier this summer, and given his Triple-A production it seems likely that a club with some available corner playing time will give him a real look.

43. Pablo Lopez, SP, Marlins

44. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers

45. Zach Plesac, SP, Guardians

46. Jose Urquidy, SP, Astros

Reports this week have suggested the clubs for all four of these hurlers are open to offers. That’s not to say any of them is especially likely to go. Lopez is controllable through 2024, Plesac and Urquidy through 2025, Skubal through ’26. The Guardians and Astros are in the thick of the playoff race. The Marlins and Tigers are not, but they’re also going to try to compete next season. It seems more likely than not that each of these pitchers remains with their club beyond next Tuesday, but each team has valid reasons for listening.

The Astros and Marlins each have an enviable collection of rotation depth and could view dealing a controllable starter as the best way to land some offensive help. The Guardians have a strong pitching development pipeline and a solid number of upper minors young arms. The Tigers rotation has been decimated by injury this year, but Skubal’s amidst a breakout season on a team that’s 19 games under .500.

47. Martin Perez, SP, Rangers

48. Chad Kuhl, SP, Rockies

49. Daniel Bard, RP, Rockies

Perez, Kuhl and Bard are impending free agents on 2022 non-contenders. They’re fairly straightforward trade candidates amidst decent seasons, but they seem less likely than the rentals above them on the list to change hands. The Rangers and Perez have expressed mutual interest in a contract extension. The Rockies seem to hope for the same with Kuhl and Bard, and Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against the possibility of a major sell-off. The Rox held onto a few notable impending free agents despite having little chance of making the playoffs last summer, and they could well do so again.

50. Garrett Cooper, 1B, Marlins

The generally underrated Cooper earned an All-Star nod this season with a .279/.347/.426 showing. He’s a consistently productive right-handed hitter, and he’s playing this season on an affordable $2.5MM salary. Cooper landed on the injured list earlier this week, but he’s expressed confidence about returning when first eligible next Wednesday. He could still draw some interest, but with an additional season of arbitration eligibility, the Marlins don’t have to make a deal.

51. Blake Snell, SP, Padres

The Padres luxury tax dilemma has been covered a few times on MLBTR’s pages. The Friars have virtually no financial breathing room for midseason additions if they don’t want to exceed the $230MM base tax threshold. Dealing from their rotation surplus to free some money for upgrades elsewhere on the roster has looked like a possibility for a while. Snell, who has a 4.75 ERA and a $10MM CBT hit for the Friars, looks like the likeliest option for that kind of move. He’s under contract for next season and still striking out plenty of batters, but his overall performance in San Diego has been a bit disappointing.

52. Brad Keller, SP, Royals

Keller’s a stable back-of-the-rotation arm. He owns a 4.04 career ERA and a 4.18 mark this season while generally working as a source of about league average innings. Keller doesn’t miss bats, but he’s posted a ground-ball rate north of 50% in four of his five MLB seasons. He could appeal to a rotation-needy team with a strong defensive infield. Keller’s making $4.825MM and arbitration-eligible once more.

53. Michael A. Taylor, CF, Royals

Taylor has been one of the sport’s best defensive outfielders throughout his career. He’s never consistently produced enough at the plate to be more than a soft regular, with swing-and-miss issues his primary undoing. Taylor has dramatically cut his strikeout rate to 22.9% this season (right around league average), and his .279/.350/.402 line is a career best. Defensive metrics have been more mixed on his work than they’ve been in years past, but most clubs are still likely to view him as a plus defender. He’s making $4.5MM both this year and next, and a thin center field market could lead K.C. to sell high.

54. Lou Trivino, RP, A’s

Trivino’s ERA is ghastly, checking in a hair below 7.00. The right-hander has a strong 27.9% strikeout rate and a hefty 52.7% grounder rate, though, and today’s front offices will be willing to look deeper than the ugly run prevention mark. Trivino has had plenty of success keeping runs off the board in years past, and he’s spent some time as Oakland’s closer. Clubs will surely expect the .456 batting average on balls in play against him to come down, and he could still draw attention from teams looking for middle innings help. Trivino is making $3MM and arbitration-eligible through 2024, but the A’s are certainly willing to listen given their competitive window.

55. Jose Iglesias, SS, Rockies

Iglesias has had a decent bounceback year after signing a $5MM contract with the Rockies in Spring Training. He’s no longer the plus defender he was at his peak, but he’s continued to play shortstop in Colorado and could probably bounce all around the infield for a contender. Iglesias is a high-contact bat who would fit well in a utility role. He’s an impending free agent.

56. Rafael Ortega, CF, Cubs

Ortega is a journeyman outfielder who has played fairly well since getting a look with the Cubs last summer. He’s a .267/.346/.419 hitter in about a full season’s worth of playing time over the last two years. Ortega’s not a great defender in center field but he can moonlight there, and the thin market at the position could make him a fallback target for clubs looking to bolster the outfield depth. He’s not yet arbitration eligible (although he’s likely to get there this offseason as a Super Two player), but the Cubs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild since he’s already 31.

57. Christian Walker, 1B, D-Backs

The D-Backs are reportedly open to offers on Walker, although the extent of their urgency to move him is unclear. He’s controllable for two and a half seasons but already 31. Walker has been a slightly above-average hitter in three of the past four years. He has plenty of power, posts big exit velocities and crushes left-handed pitching. He’s also a low-OBP slugger who is limited to first base — although he rates excellently at the position.

58. Michael Wacha, SP, Red Sox

59. Rich Hill, SP, Red Sox

Wacha and Hill are each impending free agents who could move if the Red Sox sell some short-term pieces. They’re each having decent seasons. Wacha is carrying a 2.69 ERA through 13 starts; Hill, as he has for the past couple seasons, has been right around league average. They’d each be higher on this list were they not on the injured list at the moment — Wacha due to shoulder inflammation, Hill with a knee sprain. Hill began a rehab assignment on Thursday, and Wacha doesn’t seem far behind. Despite the injuries, they could still attract some interest as they near returns from the IL.

60. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels

Insert the old adage about saving the best for last here. The Angels have reportedly at least listened to offers on Ohtani, the reigning MVP who has captivated baseball’s global fanbase with his dominance as a hitter and pitcher alike. As with Soto, it would take an overwhelming haul of prospects in order for Ohtani to actually be traded. Unlike Soto, Ohtani feels quite unlikely to be moved — hence his back-of-the-list ranking — but teams will still try.

Ohtani, 28, is earning just $5.5MM this season and will receive a sizable raise on that number in arbitration this winter. He can be a free agent following the 2023 season. Given the team’s futility during the Ohtani/Mike Trout era and Ohtani’s outspoken desire to play for a contender, it’s fair to wonder whether the Angels have a realistic chance of extending him. Asked by The Athletic’s Sam Blum just last night about his desire to stay with the Angels long-term, Ohtani side-stepped the heart of the question and concluded his reply by stating: “…Right now, I’m an Angel, and that’s all I can really focus on at this point.”

Would a team part with its top four or five prospects to add Ohtani for the next two pennant pushes? Would Angels owner Arte Moreno actually green-light the deal even if a trade partner were willing to do so? A trade seems so hard to imagine and, at the same time, perfectly logical and defensible for an Angels team with an awful farm system, crowded payroll and dwindling control over the 2021 AL MVP. He’s going to be extremely hard to pry away, but that won’t stop teams from trying.

Potential Salary Dumps of Note

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres: $20.625MM salary in 2022, $13.625MM salaries from 2023-25
Wil Myers, OF, Padres: $22.5MM salary in 2022, $20MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2023
Patrick Corbin, SP, Nationals: $23.42MM salary in 2022, due approximately $59.8MM between 2023-24
Madison Bumgarner, SP, D-Backs: $23MM salaries in 2022-23, $14MM salary in 2025

Controllable Impact Players Unlikely To Move