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Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson

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Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!

Brad will also be holding fantasy baseball chats exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, where he’ll be able to answer a much larger percentage of questions asked. Click here to learn more about Front Office.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Lawlar, Miller

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A hearty welcome to Pete Crow-Armstrong. We discussed his case for promotion last week. Though he had seven hits in 10 plate appearances over the weekend, this promotion is all about his glove. Anything he adds with his bat is gravy.

We’ll cover more recent and potential call-ups in today’s edition of Big Hype Prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 520 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .326/.444/.504

As I noted last week, Holliday’s promotion to Triple-A means we finally get access to public exit velocities. Those go a long way to influencing when a prospect earns his first promotion to the Majors. His 89.6 mph average and 103.7 mph max EVs in 30 plate appearances aren’t particularly impressive. They suggest the Orioles are better off with their existing middle infielders. Overall, he’s hitting just .200/.333/.280 in Triple-A. One silver lining, he’s posted more walks than strikeouts. Of course, we’re also talking about a tiny sample. That should go without saying.
Before anyone frets about his lack of pop in 30 plate appearances, an acquaintance was nice enough to pass along his Double-A data. His 109.7 mph max EV is excellent for a 19-year-old at any level. The chart I received doesn’t list an average, but it’s visually somewhere between 90 and 93 mph – also excellent.

Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 486 PA, 30 HR, 5 SB, .330/.391/.604

Wander Franco left the Rays in a tough spot, relying on the soft-hitting Taylor Walls and Osleivis Basabe to handle shortstop. Caminero represents a “go-for-power” alternative. Though he mostly plays third base these days, that decision was at least partly in deference to his expected future role. Caminero might not be much of a downgrade defensively – Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender. Caminero is still athletic enough to cover shortstop at present. Since August 25, he batted .354/.436/.917 with eight home runs in 55 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

An injury to Adolis Garcia opened the door for Carter to join the Rangers roster. He was reportedly already under consideration, the injury merely turned “when” to “now.” Oft-compared to Brandon Nimmo (they’re eerily similar), Carter plays within himself. Not all scouts appreciate this – the current meta is all about chasing extreme outcomes. In particular, he looks like he should be able to hit for power, but he maximizes for on base percentage rather than slugging. That’s just the first of many commonalities with Nimmo. The Rangers have a reputation for forcing their prospects to produce pulled, fly ball contact. That Carter reached the Majors despite eschewing organizational preferences suggests there’s an interesting behind-the-scenes tale to tell.

Jordan Lawlar, 21, SS, ARI (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 490 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .278/.378/.496

Questions about Lawlar’s hit tool mostly fly under the radar thanks to heady results and plus shortstop defense. He’s considered one of the best athletes in the sport. The most optimistic scouts consider him a 70 overall on the 20-80 scale. Aside from consistency of contact, Lawlar offers the total package. He’s an above-average runner, fields and throws well, and already flashes 30 homer upside as part of a discipline-forward approach. Though he’s not as extreme as Anthony Volpe, there’s a chance Lawlar’s early outcomes follow a similar track.

Mason Miller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
23.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.09 ERA

Miller returned from injury on September 6. He’s scheduled to make his first start since April on Monday. A hard-thrower with a limited repertoire and a long injury history, Miller has rare potential to overpower Major League hitters. Developed as a starter, evaluators remain split on his ultimate role. A proactive conversion to relief could help to lengthen his career – or at least improve his effectiveness. As a starter, the range of outcomes looks something like Tyler Glasnow to Michael Kopech with a real chance that he’s usually too hurt to contribute.

Three More

Jackson Ferris, CHC (19): I knew there was a fifth Jackson I forgot last week. Ferris is the also-ran among the prominent Jacksons in baseball, but he still tracks as a potential Top 100 prospect within the coming years. The southpaw has a repertoire of four average or better offerings backed by presently poor command. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 12.38 K/9, 5.30 BB/9, and a 53.4 percent ground ball rate in Low-A.

Brooks Lee (22): The Twins are relatively deep in the middle infield or else Lee would be on the shortlist for a promotion. He’s a well-rounded player who lacks standout tools or notable shortcomings. He’s posted above-MLB-average EVs in Triple-A.

Luisangel Acuna, NYM (21): Since joining the Mets organization, Acuna has cut his swinging strike rate nearly in half. He also cut his power in half. The net result is a sharp decline in offensive value. For now, this has the look of a step back for (hopefully) two steps forward.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Merrill, Jobe, Chourio, Crow-Armstrong

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Big Jackson Prospects is back with another edition starring members of the new Jackson Four.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517

Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.

To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454

Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.

Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.

Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471

One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499

Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.

Three More

Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.

Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.

Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson

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Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

Click here to read the transcript for today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!

Brad will also be holding fantasy baseball chats exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, where he’ll be able to answer a much larger percentage of questions asked. Click here to learn more about Front Office.

Big Hype Prospects: Rafaela, Amador, Langford, Madden, Caissie

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Well, what are you waiting for? Let’s get to it.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 485 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .302/.349/.520

Rafaela is the latest top prospect to earn a promotion. The defensive wunderkind has posted impressive hitting stats, albeit without much support under the surface. For instance, Rafaela has 14 home runs in 219 Triple-A plate appearances, an impressive power display by any measure. However, he’s done this with a 25.9 percent HR/FB ratio and below-average exit velocities. The guys who maintain high HR/FB ratios do it by crushing baseballs on the regular. Rafaela also has both poor discipline and serious swing-and-miss issues. That he succeeds despite these flaws indicates a path forward in the coming years. For now, consider him a glove-first option with an explosive but exploitable bat.

Adael Amador, 20, SS, COL AA)
(A+) 259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514

Though he’s no Ethan Salas, Amador is still one of the youngest players in Double-A. As yet, he only has two games at the level. He’s gone 2-for-8 with a walk and two steals. Amador is a switch-hitting middle infielder with a Kwan-like feel for the strike zone and contact. He still sells out for contact a little too much, and too many of his balls in play are on the ground. Even so, he’s trending toward a 2024 debut for a Rockies club in desperate need of a viable leadoff hitter. And that’s exactly what he looks like – a long-term up-the-middle leadoff guy.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (A+)
(A+) 88 PA, 3 HR, 6 SB, .314/.455/.586

A candidate to go first overall in the 2023 draft, Langford “fell” to the Rangers at fourth overall. He tore through the complex in 14 plate appearances before landing in High-A. The right-handed outfielder has more walks than strikeouts and as many extra-base hits as singles – indicating High-A isn’t much of a challenge. The main knock against him is defense. He’s fast enough to be a plus fielder, but he reportedly gets poor reads off the bat. His speed helps him to make up ground. I like to give players with his athleticism a pass on their poor defensive reputations in college. A professional environment without the pesky distractions of college sometimes unlocks an extra hunger to improve.

Ty Madden, 23, SP, DET (AA)
(AA) 103 IP, 10.92 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 3.84 ERA

Dating back to last season, Madden now has 30 starts at Double-A. He features a classic four-pitch repertoire of roughly average offerings complemented by average or better command. Variety and command have allowed him to miss bats at a high rate. One glaring issue is a hefty home run rate. I don’t have the data necessary to diagnose if those dingers are the result of a simple or complicated issue. Presumably, they’re at least of moderate concern since he remains in Double-A.

Owen Caissie, 21, OF, CHC (AA)
458 PA, 21 HR, 6 SB, .282/.387/.525

Caissie has the Joey Gallo starter kit –plus discipline, 80-grade power, and a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. There’s some cause for hope. Caissie’s 13.9 percent swinging strike rate is well-below even Gallo’s best seasons. Both sluggers spent their age-20 campaign in Double-A. Gallo had a 23 percent swinging strike rate at the time – though he also hit 42 home runs that season. Teams have grown increasingly adept at using players in the situations for which they’re best suited. Caissie appears destined for a highly managed role, one in which he might shine as brightly as baseball’s top stars.

Three More

Robby Snelling, SDP (19): A bat-missing southpaw, Snelling was somehow only the second-youngest player the Padres promoted to Double-A last week (yep, I’m going to keep bringing up Salas). Despite strong results overall, reports indicate Snelling is a long way from a Major League debut. His fastball lacks special traits. Success will depend on his slider, an impressive offering for which he currently lacks command.

Yu-Min Lin, ARI (20): Min earned a promotion to Double-A right around Snelling’s age. He perhaps serves as a cautionary tale since they both feature unimpressive fastballs. Unlike Snelling, Lin has solid command and his primary weapon is a changeup. He’s struggled to a 5.19 ERA in Double-A.

Colton Cowser, BAL (23): One of the hottest first-half hitters in the minors, Cowser struggled to drink from his jumbo-sized cup of coffee. His MLB-hangover has followed him back to Triple-A. Since demotion, he’s batting .250/.348/.500 with a 34 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Schanuel, Winn, Marte, Harrison, Salas

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We’ve reached the point of the season when prospect call-ups won’t expend their rookie status due to time spent on the roster. It’s still technically possible for such players to pass the plate appearance or innings pitched thresholds.

In any event, this marks an opportunity for teams to offer their young players time to acclimate in the Majors ahead of a Rookie of the Year bid in 2024. We saw similar with Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson last season. Let’s cover a few such players along with others on the ascent.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Schanuel, 21, 1B, LAA (MLB)
14 PA, .250/.357/.250

Schanuel was summoned by a desperate Angels club to cover for the absence of C.J. Cron. The 2023 draftee has over twice as many walks as strikeouts in limited professional action. In a perfect world, he likely would have spent more time in the minors working on achieving higher-quality contact. There isn’t a spot on the Angels roster for both Cron and Schanuel. In other words, we can expect Schanuel to return to the minors if and when Cron recovers from his lower-back tightness. Until then, we’ll see if Schanuel can learn to complement his discipline and feel for contact with better lift and exit velocities.

Masyn Winn, 21, SS, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 498 PA, 18 HR, 17 SB, .288/.359/.474

A high-probability league-average shortstop with upside for more, Winn is now 11 plate appearances into his Major League career. The well-rounded shortstop makes up for a lack of carrying traits (besides his impressive throwing arm) with an equal lack of weaknesses. There’s only one knock against him: merely adequate exit velocities. Adequacy is hardly damning praise. For a 21-year-old to possess his skills and traits means he has countless ways to take the next step from acceptability to stardom. He could do it on defense, through feel for contact, burgeoning power, speed on the basepaths, or a little bit of everything.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 389 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .281/.360/.460

Marte was one of the first prospects covered by this column last season. I noted a slight souring among evaluators who were beginning to see him as more of a core performer than a future star. His performance this season remains prime for disagreement. The surface level stats are good-not-great, and his peripherals are a mixed bag. He’s a tad prone to swinging strikes. Even so, he avoids strikeouts while showing plus discipline. He also produces exciting top-end exit velocities for a 21-year-old. Some scouts think he’s close to physically maxed out. Others see room for further growth.

Broad strokes, the outlook is similar to Winn albeit from a lesser defensive position. There are so many ways for Marte to find his way to star-caliber production. The floor resembles a Major League core performer.

Kyle Harrison, 22, SP, SFG (MLB)
(AAA) 65.2 IP, 14.39 K/9, 6.58 BB/9, 4.66 ERA

Harrison makes for one of the toughest evals in the minors. He has a feel for missing bats along with the repertoire of a high-ceilinged starting pitcher. He also happens to struggle with command and control. Of his 21 starts, Harrison reached five innings exactly once. He never faced 20 or more batters. The relief risk is ooey-gooey tangible, but the Giants have every incentive to give him more time in the rotation. Presently, Harrison is expected to join a unit consisting of Logan Webb and a handful of struggling veterans like Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, and Jakob Junis. The Giants will be playing bullpen games from here through the end of the season.

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (AA)
(A/A+) 257 PA, 9 HR, 5 SB, .257/.335/.447

At the tender age of 17 years, 2 months, and 20 days, Salas finds himself in Double-A. This latest promotion is virtually unprecedented, made all the more so because Salas hit just .200/.243/.229 in 37 High-A plate appearances. It doesn’t require an active imagination to wonder what else is going on here. Perhaps the Padres Double-A affiliate has a desirable instructor or facilities. Maybe, like a baby bird, he imprinted on one of the other players the Padres promoted to Double-A yesterday. Could a long-term contract be in the offing?

In any event, Salas is now the youngest player to grace Double-A in recent memory. He’s considered a precocious receiver with the potential to become a quality hitter too.

Three More

Carson Williams, TBR (20): The Rays promoted Williams from High-A straight to Triple-A. The move allows for Junior Caminero’s (Double-A) development to remain unaffected. Williams is 1-for-13 with two walks and six strikeouts. He’s running a 22.2 percent swinging strike rate with poor exit velocities. Note the tiny sample.

Samuel Zavala, SDP (18): Though not quite on the Salas-track, Zavala earned a promotion to High-A yesterday after hitting .267/.420/.451 with 14 home runs and 20 steals in 459 Low-A plate appearances. He has issues adjusting to pitches in certain parts of the strike zone, especially up-and-away.

Paul Skenes, PIT (21): Earlier today, the Pirates announced Skenes would join the Double-A club, skipping High-A in the process. Whether this move is in preparation for a 2023 or 2024 debut, it won’t be long before we see Skenes grace a big league mound.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson

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Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!

Brad will also be holding fantasy baseball chats exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, where he’ll be able to answer a much larger percentage of questions asked. Click here to learn more about Front Office.

Big Hype Prospects: Mayo, Encarnacion-Strand, Thorpe, Hampton, Caminero

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This week, we look at prospects who are among the top minor-league performers — a few of whom have struggled lately. Let’s skip Jackson Holliday.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 450 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .283/.393/.560

While Mayo’s seasonal line is impressive, he’s scuffled to a .205/.291/.420 triple-slash in 103 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s still impacting the ball with Major League-caliber exit velocities. The big difference between Double-A and Triple-A is BABIP. This isn’t a write-it-off-as-luck situation. Mayo makes a lot of pulled, fly ball contact. He’s the sort of hitter who might be prone to low BABIPs in the Majors. He’s always been a high-BABIP guy in the minors which is actually a classic sign that the hitter isn’t being challenged at the level. Perhaps Mayo is finally feeling some pain. He’ll likely make a couple small adjustments and resume hitting at an above-average level. We might witness similar growing pains when he’s eventually summoned to the Majors.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B, CIN (MLB)
91 PA, 3 HR, .250/.308/.381

Speaking of growing pains, Encarnacion-Strand has reverted to his previous poor discipline in his first taste of the Majors. While his average contact is impressively firm, he’s not getting to the top end of his power range – at least not yet. Presently, he’s both strikeout and fly ball prone. The fly balls aren’t as much a concern as they are with most prospects – it’s not called Great American Smallpark without reason. A power barrage awaits ahead for CES. In the meantime, we’re also getting a good look at the downside for this probably-volatile slugger. He produced a 1.042 OPS at Triple-A.

Drew Thorpe, 22, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 117 IP, 11.31 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 2.62 ERA

The Yankees have an obnoxious habit of developing promising-looking pitchers who struggle to make the transition between the minors and Majors. Thorpe is on pace to debut next season. In my opinion, he should rank higher on prospects lists. The rub is his velocity. He’s currently a soft-tossing southpaw with a “projectable frame.” In other words, scouts think he can add velocity. Thorpe is a command artist with a plus changeup and a slider he locates with ease. Even if the velocity never comes, he’ll give hitters fits as a reliever. Nearly all of the above stats were accrued in High-A.

Chase Hampton, 22, SP, NYY (AA)
95.2 IP, 12.51 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.86 ERA

Evaluators prefer Hampton to Thorpe because he more closely resembles the classic workhorse. He’s already pushing for Top 50 prospect status on Baseball America’s list. Hampton has a five-pitch repertoire featuring four average or better offerings and a platoon-changeup. He’s able to use his four-seam, cutter, or slider as his primary pitch, depending on the matchup. His curve offers a change of pace for right-handed hitters, and he commands everything well. Hampton has met some challenges in Double-A (4.90 ERA, 4.02 xFIP). It’s possible he’s running out of steam in his first full professional season.

Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 400 PA, 21 HR, 4 SB, .322/.380/.565

Caminero draws heavy hype among the fantasy prospect ranking crowd for his precocious power output. Traditional evaluators are slowly approaching the same level of excitement. Baseball America ranks him fifth in the league. The missing ingredient is plate discipline, but he’s shown modest signs of improvement at Double-A. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of this profile until I see it perform in the Majors. The jump from Triple-A to the Majors is particularly large for hitters who either lack discipline or feature a high whiff rate. Caminero checks both boxes. So did Fernando Tatis Jr. That’s not to say they’re similar athletes, only that an expectedly “tough” transition can be easier for some players than others.

In any event, don’t be surprised if Caminero stalls out for a few years before finding his stride in the Majors. The Rays have a knack for putting their players in situations where they thrive. See their development of Josh Lowe.

Three More

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): One of the top-performing breakout power hitters, Ortiz is a slow-footed, left-handed first baseman who takes massive hacks. He’s produced 26 home runs in 350 plate appearances on the season, mostly at High-A. He profiles as a future 30-homer slugger with a strikeout problem.

Heston Kjerstad, BAL (24): A late-bloomer by today’s heady standards (and due to missed time), Kjerstad is posting MLB-caliber exit velocities in Triple-A along with a .383 BABIP. This is a function of approach, not luck. Even so, we usually see these line-drive boppers lose their BABIP fuel upon matriculating. Kjerstad projects as a league-average corner outfielder.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, MIN (20): Expected to eventually move from center field, Rodriguez has more than enough bat to survive in an outfield corner. He’s a discipline-forward slugger who verges on passivity. He’s walked in more than 20 percent of plate appearances as a professional. He’ll need to learn more selective aggression against higher-quality pitchers.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Gilbert, Eder, Clifford, Watson, Made

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Last week, we broke down the early trade deadline deals. Let’s finish things up. For the smart alecks in the audience, we are relaxing our definition of “big hype” to accommodate timely analysis.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Drew Gilbert, 22, OF, NYM (AA)
(A+/AA) 321 PA, 12 HR, 10 SB, .277/.367/.461

Acquired in the Justin Verlander trade, Gilbert looks the part of a future core-performing outfielder. The Astros took him with the 28th pick of the 2022 draft, and he’s already within spitting distance of the Majors. The overall profile doesn’t read as particularly impactful, instead filling a high-floor, modest-ceiling bucket. While that isn’t an exciting review of Gilbert’s skills, he’s still viewed as a Top 100 prospect with some support for a Top 50 ranking. High-probability 2-WAR athletes are widely coveted around the league. Defensive reviews vary. Some evaluators prefer him in a corner, but he seemingly has the skills to stick in center if a better defender isn’t already on hand.

Jake Eder, 24, SP, CWS (AA)
(A/AA) 41.1 IP, 10.9 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.35 ERA

The return for Jake Burger, Eder was on the fast track in 2021 before requiring UCL replacement. He was well on his way to a Top 25 prospect ranking. Alas, his stuff has backed up since returning, and his command shed a grade as well. At his best, the southpaw had a carrying fastball, a lethal slider, and a show-me changeup. Reports indicate he’s lost his arm slot which affected his stuff. He’s also lost velocity, further diminishing his stuff. More distance from surgery could be the cure.

If he’s in search of development, my contacts recommend he follow Lucas Giolito’s lead and seek help from a third party. His new org is not well-regarded by outside evaluators. There’s now considerable relief risk – and not necessarily sexy high-leverage kind. Still, he was among the best pitchers on the planet only a few years ago. He could yet recover.

Ryan Clifford, 19, 1B/OF, NYM (A+)
(A/A+) 320 PA, 19 HR, 4 SB, .284/.394/.513

The other piece of the Verlander trade, Clifford might turn out to be the best hitter dealt at the deadline – assuming he connects enough to catch on at higher levels. He’s a slow runner, and he struggles against fastballs at the top of the zone. Considering even most sinkerballers have a high fastball in their repertoire these days, it’s not a great time to bring that Pat Burrell swing back to the Majors. That said, he punishes anything low in the zone, including breaking balls. Power is Clifford’s carrying trait. If he ever maintains a permanent Major League role, it will be on the back of 30-homer power.

The Astros had him working on his passivity at High-A, and it seemed to be going well. We’ll see how the Mets approach his development.

Kahlil Watson, 20, SS, CLE (A+)
255 PA, 7 HR, 14 SB, .203/.333/.364

One of the top prep shortstop prospects in the 2021 draft, Watson’s development has stagnated in the Marlins system. Inconsistent strike zone judgment and a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate are to blame. The Guardians are known for their love of disciplined, contact-oriented athletes. Ostensibly, they know how to train these traits. There are fully substantiated reports regarding his makeup – you can google them if you want – which the Guardians will need to address. It’s fair to remember not every 20-year-old athlete is an old soul with a zen attitude. Some guys are fiery and later learn to channel it. In any event, Watson’s athleticism remains on display. He should be considered extremely raw.

Kevin Made, 20, SS, WSH (A+)
300 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, .240/.328/.355

In recent years, we’ve gotten used to watching meteoric rises within every farm system. The business of prospecting is booming. Still, some guys take a longer path to the bigs. Made looks like one of these. He’s an able defensive shortstop who should remain at the position. Tool grades on his bat generally come in around the 45- to 55-grade range. He has plus discipline without the usual case of passivitis. There’s a high probability utility man floor here with potential for a starting role – likely of the second-division variety. For now, he needs to mature into more physicality without losing a step.

Three More

Nick Nastrini, CWS (23): Sent to the White Sox in the Lynn/Kelly trade, Nastrini features two above average breaking balls and a quality heater. He’s a fly ball pitcher with below average command. I view him as a future reliever, but plenty of better evaluators give him a shot at sticking in the rotation.

Hao-Yu Lee, DET (20): Lee has hit at every stop. His defensive limitations – he’s a second-baseman only – and modest pop lead to an awkward fit in the current meta. At the top end of the spectrum, comparable defenders like Luis Arraez and Edouard Julien hit enough to force their way into the lineup. By the time Lee is ready, Detroit will have some practice with this defensive profile courtesy of Colt Keith.

Sem Robberse, STL (21): Robberse doesn’t turn heads, but he has all the traits teams look for in under-the-radar innings eaters. He features a plus changeup and a deep repertoire of otherwise slightly below average offerings. His command has potential to be plus and will help decide how far he travels along a Zach Eflin-like path.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson

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Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!

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