Pitcher Notes: Hamels, Phils, Wheeler, Twins, Bundy, Lindblom
The latest pitcher-relates news from around baseball…
- Left-hander Cole Hamels said earlier this offseason he’d be open to a return to Philadelphia, where he thrived at the beginning of his career. Hamels wound up accepting the division-rival Braves’ one-year, $18MM offer on Wednesday, but the Phillies were among his suitors before then. They put forth a one-year proposal worth roughly half what Hamels got from the Braves, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Hamels turned down a return to Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the starter-needy Phillies made a much bigger splash to improve their rotation Wednesday, as they agreed to sign ex-Met Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118MM pact.
- The Twins were also among the most ardent teams in pursuit of Wheeler, according to La Velle E. Neal of the Star Tribune. They offered Wheeler a five-year, $100MM offer, but the Phillies upended them. Had Wheeler taken the Twins’ offer, it would have been the richest in franchise history. Now, even after Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, they’re still in clear need of starting help. Odorizzi and Jose Berrios are the only sure things for Minnesota’s 2020 rotation, meaning we probably haven’t seen the last of the team’s starting pursuits this winter. Indeed, the Twins seem to be aggressively going after free-agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner.
- The Angels and Orioles swung a headline-grabbing trade Wednesday, when Los Angeles acquired righty Dylan Bundy from Baltimore. Even after picking up Bundy, the Angels remain “in the market for pitching,” said general manager Billy Eppler (via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). As for the non-contending Orioles, in parting with Bundy, they took “a big step toward our stated goals to accumulate and develop as much young talent as possible as the club rebuilds its roster and gets our talent level back to the level needed for consistent playoff contention,” per GM Mike Elias (via Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com).
- Korea Baseball Organization right-hander Josh Lindblom officially became a free agent Wednesday, the Yonhap News Agency relays. Lindblom was terrific as a member of the KBO’s Doosan Bears from 2018-19, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained. Before that, he was unremarkable in the majors from 2011-17 with several teams. However, Lindblom’s KBO performance could overshadow his MLB history as he seeks a big league contract this offseason.
Yankees Meet With Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg
Dec. 4: Cole assured the Yankees at their meeting that he has “no west coast bias” at an in-person meeting that lasted for more than four hours, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the meeting with Strasburg went well, also. Specific dollars weren’t discussed, as the Yankees first endeavored to give Strasburg an overview of the organization and its pitching philosophies.
Dec. 2: The Yankees’ rotation was under fire throughout 2019, a year in which they came a couple victories short of their first World Series appearance since 2009. The reigning AL East winners are now focusing on upgrading their starting staff, as they’re seriously considering going after the premier starting pitchers on the market. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required), New York’s prioritizing right-hander Gerrit Cole – who, as a member of the Astros – helped knock the Yankees out of the ALCS. The Yankees are also interested in the No. 2 starter available, righty Stephen Strasburg, and they’ll sit down with him and Cole in California sometime over the next two days, Rosenthal reports.
Since the Yankees’ season ended, general manager Brian Cashman hasn’t made it any secret that they’ll scan the top of the market for starting help. However, as deep-pocketed as the Yankees are, it has been quite some time since they’ve gone to the lengths it would require to sign either Cole or Strasburg in free agency.
Cole is likely in line to obliterate the largest contract ever for a pitcher – the seven-year, $217MM deal David Price signed with the Red Sox entering 2016 – while the World Series MVP Strasburg could approach $200MM in his own right. Pacts like that could be problematic for New York if it wants to avoid severe luxury-tax penalties in 2020. In the estimation of Jason Martinez of FanGraphs and Roster Resource, the Yankees are already at roughly $215MM toward the luxury tax for next season, putting them over the first level of $208MM. The second and third levels of $228MM and $248MM, respectively, would obviously be much harder to avoid with Cole or Strasburg in the mix.
Owner Hal Steinbrenner spoke about possibly spending over the largest tax threshold Monday, telling the YES Network (via Tim Healey of Newsday): “It’s a big deal. It’s something we would certainly prefer not to do because there are June draft ramifications, there are numerous ramifications. But that is something I would consider.”
Indeed, if the Yankees were to go past $248MM, their draft slot would fall 10 places in 2020. However, Steinbrenner noted: “[The Yankees already have] a good rotation, but starting pitching, you can’t have enough. Like last year, that’s going to be my focus. You’ll have to ask [Brian Cashman] if he agrees with me or not. That’s all.”
The Yankees already have at least three rotation spots sewn up for next season. Luis Severino, whom injuries prevented from making much of an impact this year, will be back to join a group that boasts James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as complements. There’s less certainty thereafter, though, with Domingo German on administrative leave for a violation of the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, J.A. Happ coming off a rough season and Jordan Montgomery still trying to re-establish himself after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Yankees will take advantage of their financial might to sign Cole or Strasburg, but they’re at least mulling it.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 12/4/19
Click here to read a transcript of tonight’s chat with Connor Byrne of MLBTR.
2020 Competitive Balance Draft Pick Order
Major League Baseball has determined the orders of Competitive Balance Rounds A and B for the 2020 amateur draft, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. Comp Round A takes place after the first round of the draft, while Comp Round B goes down at the conclusion of the second round. The selections are comprised of picks awarded to teams that are considered in the bottom 10 in terms of market size and/or revenue.
Here’s the order of the two rounds, per Mayo:
Round A
31) Baltimore Orioles
32) Pittsburgh Pirates
33) Kansas City Royals
34) Arizona Diamondbacks
35) San Diego Padres
36) Colorado Rockies
37) Cleveland Indians
38) St. Louis Cardinals
Round B
68) Miami Marlins
69) Detroit Tigers
70) Tampa Bay Rays
71) Milwaukee Brewers
72) Cincinnati Reds
73) Minnesota Twins
Unlike the typical draft pick, these choices can be traded, which means the order listed above isn’t necessarily etched in stone. However, these picks can only be traded during the season, and they can change hands just once. Furthermore, qualifying offer decisions from this offseason will shake up the draft order to some extent. White Sox slugger Jose Abreu and Twins right-hander Jake Odorizzi accepted those offers, but the eight others who received them rejected. Each of those calls will have an impact on the 2020 draft order.
*This is an updated version of a prior post from MLBTR’s Jeff Todd.
AL Notes: Lindor, Wheeler, Yanks, Twins
Let’s take a quick look around the American League…
- Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor is a prominent trade candidate, at least speculatively. However, as you’d expect, it’s going to be extremely difficult to pry the superstar out of Cleveland. The Indians would have to be “overwhelmed” by an offer in order to part with the 26-year-old four-time All-Star this offseason, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com writes. Lindor has just two years of control left and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension, meaning there’s a case the Indians should strongly consider trading him before next season. However, the perennial contenders apparently want to see how they fare coming out of the gate next season before deciding Lindor’s future, Hoynes suggests. If that’s the case, we may not see a Lindor trade until at least around next July’s trade deadline.
- Right-hander Zack Wheeler has become popular on the open market, but it doesn’t appear the longtime Met will be sticking in New York. Although the Yankees have shown interest in the hard-throwing Wheeler, they seemingly aren’t willing to hand him a nine-figure contract, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. Signs are pointing to the 29-year-old Wheeler landing a contract worth at least $100MM, so if the Yankees don’t want to go there, they’ll likely have to look elsewhere for starting help.
- Righty Matt Wisler, whom the Twins claimed off waivers from the Mariners in October, will make just over $700K in 2020, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. That looks like a rather team-friendly amount for the out-of-options Wisler, who had been projected to earn $1MM next season. The 27-year-old Wisler, a former top prospect, divided last season between Seattle and San Diego and logged a 5.61 ERA/4.23 FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates of 11.05 and 2.81 across 51 1/3 innings.
Sorting The Skills Of The Non-Tendered Pitchers
A smorgasbord of new players reached the open market Monday, the deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible guys. But did anyone particularly interesting join the class of available players? Let’s start on the pitching side and use several different key statistics from 2019 to determine whether any hurlers of real intrigue just became part of the current free-agent class. Admittedly, because we’re lumping starters and relievers together, this is an imperfect method. We’ll go with a minimum 20-inning limit to somewhat mitigate that…
Hardest Throwers
League average = 92.7 mph
- Blake Treinen, RHP: 96.7
- Junior Guerra, RHP: 94.7
- Josh Osich, LHP/Derek Law, RHP/Jason Adam, RHP: 94.5
- Yimi Garcia, RHP: 94.2
- Kevin Gausman, RHP: 94.0
Top Strikeout Arms
League average = 22.3%
- Yimi Garcia: 26.7 K%, 9.53 K/9
- Kevin Gausman: 25.3 K%, 10.03 K/9
- Ryan Buchter, LHP: 25.3 K%, 9.93 K/9
- Jimmy Nelson, RHP: 24.8 K%, 10.64 K/9
- Derek Law: 23.5 K%, 9.94 K/9
Fewest Walks
League average = 7.7%
- Josh Osich: 5.5 BB/9, 2.00 BB/9
- Yimi Garcia: 5.7 BB%, 2.02 BB/9
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 5.9 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
- Kevin Gausman: 7.1 BB%, 2.81 BB/9
- Alex Claudio, LHP: 9.0 BB%, 3.48 BB/9
Best Groundball Rates
League average = 42.7%
- Alex Claudio: 57.4
- Derek Law: 50.0
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP: 46.9
- Junior Guerra: 43.4
- Blake Treinen: 42.8
Least Hard Contact
League average = 38.4%
- Alex Claudio: 30.2
- Jason Adam: 33.3
- Josh Osich: 35.7
- Blake Treinen: 36.7
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 36.8
Blue Jays Interested In Josh Lindblom
The Blue Jays have already added one starting pitcher this offseason in ex-Brewer Chase Anderson, but he probably won’t be the last new member of their rotation in 2020. They’ve since been connected to a variety of free-agent starters, and you can add right-hander Josh Lindblom to the group. Lindblom’s on Toronto’s radar, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports.
Lindblom isn’t anywhere close to the top of the starter market – MLBTR projects him to earn $8MM over two years on his next contract – but the 32-year-old does look like an intriguing choice after thriving in Korea from 2017-19. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently highlighted the excellence Lindblom displayed overseas after bouncing around among several destinations, including the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, Athletics and Pirates, from 2011-17.
Now, odds are that Lindblom will return to the majors this offseason, and the team that signs him will surely hope he can come close to enjoying the type of success the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has since he left Japan to join the Cardinals in December 2017. Mikolas hadn’t shown he was capable of sticking in the bigs before he went to Asia in 2015, but he has been a high-quality starter since returning.
Even after picking up Anderson, Toronto’s rotation still looks extremely thin, as Matt Shoemaker (off yet another injury-shortened season) and the relatively unproven trio of Ryan Borucki, Jacob Waguespack and Trent Thornton make up its staff on paper. Signing Lindblom, given what he has done in the majors to this point, wouldn’t necessarily inspire much more confidence. Nevertheless, whether he chooses the Blue Jays or someone else, Lindblom plans to pick his next team by the end of the Winter Meetings on Dec. 12, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required).
Latest On Cubs’ Offseason Plans
The Cubs, just a couple months from the end of a bitterly disappointing campaign, may be on their way to an offseason shakeup. The club has been “aggressive,” “manic,” “motivated” and “obvious” in its effort to trade someone, executives have told Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.
The possibility of a trade involving first baseman Anthony Rizzo has looked out of the question to this point, but even the franchise favorite might not be off-limits, according to Passan, who names third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and catcher Willson Contreras as other possible chips for Chicago.
Rizzo’s on the heels of yet another excellent offensive season, in which he slashed .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 613 plate appearances. The 30-year-old is controllable for the next two seasons by way of affordable club options, and has already said he hopes to sign a new contract with the Cubs. So far, though, there hasn’t been any scuttlebutt regarding a new deal between the two sides.
Pound for pound, Bryant’s likely the best player of the three, but there’s wariness toward him from other clubs in regards to his team control, per Passan. As of now, Bryant’s still under wraps for two more years via arbitration, but the former NL MVP will become a free agent next winter if he wins a grievance against the Cubs for allegedly manipulating his service time as a rookie in 2015. He’s currently slated to earn a projected $18.5MM via the arb process next season, and that looks like a reasonable price relative to what the soon-to-be 28-year-old Bryant brings to the table. Still, if teams aren’t sure whether they’ll get one or two years of Bryant, it’s understandable that they may not want to make a massive offer for him.
Meantime, there’s no debate as to how much time Contreras has left before free agency. He’s got another three arb-eligible years, including a 2020 season in which he’s slated to earn at a bargain rate of $4.5MM. Between his cost and his years-long track record of terrific production, Contreras is hands down one of the most valuable catchers in baseball. With that in mind, the Cubs aren’t under pressure to trade Contreras for anything less than a sweetheart offer. However, if Chicago does move Contreras, it does seem to have a capable replacement on hand in Victor Caratini.
Whether the Cubs part with Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras or another of their big-time contributors (Javier Baez?), it does look as if this is setting up as an offseason of seismic changes for the club. Epstein was frustrated a year ago after the Cubs failed to advance past the wild-card round, so he’s surely even more upset now following a season in which they didn’t even make the playoffs.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Mike Moustakas Signing
The Reds are just a couple months removed from wrapping up a 75-win campaign, their sixth straight sub-.500 showing and sixth in a row without a playoff berth. President of baseball operations Dick Williams made it clear entering the offseason that he had seen enough. Williams vowed that the Reds would be players on the open market, saying at the beginning of October the club would “be aggressive in trying to get some guys in free agency.” However, as the saying goes, actions speak louder than words. Two months later, it’s clear Williams wasn’t simply telling disgruntled Reds fans what they wanted to hear.
The Williams-led Reds made an enormous and shocking splash in free agency on Monday, adding infielder Mike Moustakas on a four-year, $64MM guarantee. It was a stunning move for multiple reasons, including the price tag and that Moustakas’ primary position – third base – is already spoken for in Cincinnati. He’s not going to steal the job from incumbent Eugenio Suarez, who’s fresh off a 49-home run season, nor is he a threat to swipe first from franchise legend Joey Votto. That presumably leaves second base for Moustakas. The keystone was an area of need for the Reds prior to the Moustakas signing, and the 31-year-old showed last season he was capable of handling himself there as a member of the division-rival Brewers. Now that Moustakas is aboard, it seems likely youngster Nick Senzel will remain their center fielder instead of shifting to the keystone. So, it’s almost like two decisions in one for the Reds.
As for the cost, it’s a whopper of a deal from both sides’ perspective, especially considering MLBTR was among the outlets that projected a payday in the $20MM range for Moustakas at the start of free agency. That said, one could argue it’s a market correction after back-to-back difficult offseasons for Moustakas. “Difficult” is relative in this case, of course, as the Scott Boras client did rack up contracts worth a guaranteed $16.5MM in that time frame. However, despite a lengthy track record of solid production, Moustakas was unable to score a contract of more than one year in either case. Now, for a truckload of cash, the Reds are getting a player with five seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR and another five of 20-plus home runs on his resume. Moustakas smashed 35 HRs during a homer-heavy league year in 2019, when he slashed .254/.329/.516 and put up 2.8 fWAR across 584 plate appearances.
With Moose in the mix, the majority of Cincy’s infield looks settled. However, the team’s position player cast arguably still has needs at shortstop, catcher and in the outfield. Whether they’ll be as aggressive in trying to upgrade those spots remains to be seen in the wake of the pact they doled out for Moustakas. For now, though, what do you think of this big-time Cincy splash?
(Poll link for app users)
Grade the Moustakas signing
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B 41% (9,331)
-
C 26% (5,892)
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A 20% (4,571)
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D 9% (2,122)
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F 3% (731)
Total votes: 22,647
Rangers Met Recently With Anthony Rendon
The Rangers missed the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, but with a new ballpark set to open next season, it appears they’re serious about returning to contention immediately. The Rangers gave right-handed starter Kyle Gibson a three-year, $30MM guarantee last week, though that deal could pale in comparison to the highest award they dole out this winter. The club’s in pursuit of the best free-agent position player on the market in third baseman Anthony Rendon, as it met with him and agent Scott Boras in Houston on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The Rangers haven’t made a contract offer yet, per Grant, but “several executives” have indicated they’re the favorites to sign him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today sports tweets.
Signing Rendon would likely mean doling out a guarantee well above $200MM, though it could help the Rangers’ cause that he’s a Texas native. Rendon’s by far the best unsigned third baseman in the game, but between their interest in him and Josh Donaldson, it’s clear the Rangers are serious about finding their first great option at the position since potential Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre retired after the 2018 season.
Texas, however, isn’t just considering a splash at the hot corner. Rather, the Rangers could pick up yet another high-profile starter even after signing Gibson. It’s “believed” that they’ve recently met with free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, according to Grant. Wheeler, who could cost around $100MM in free agency, would add another formidable arm to a rotation that has taken an obvious step forward with the acquisition of Gibson. Those two would presumably join Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Kolby Allard to give the Rangers a rather imposing top five heading into 2020.