Blue Jays Notes: Gurriel, Starters, Tepera
The latest on Toronto…
- The Blue Jays could consider trading outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., “especially if it brings the right rotation arm back,” Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. The 26-year-old Gurriel just put up an impressive season at the plate, having batted .277/.327/.541 with 20 home runs in 343 attempts. The former middle infielder also fared decently in his debut as a major league outfielder, as Gurriel logged minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved with a plus-0.2 Ultimate Zone Rating across 532 innings in left. Between the promising production Gurriel registered in 2019 and his team-friendly contract (he’s owed just $15.9MM through 2023), it seems likely he’d draw plenty of interest if Toronto were to market him.
- The Blue Jays already swung a trade for a starter earlier this month, acquiring right-hander Chase Anderson from the Brewers. While the Jays could continue to explore that route for much-needed rotation help, it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club pick up help via free agency. President of baseball operations Mark Shapiro has indicated the Jays have interest in the best starter available, Gerrit Cole, but a match there doesn’t look realistic. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet runs down some more likely possibilities, naming an array of starters whom Toronto could pursue. Zack Wheeler and Jake Odorizzi are a couple on the higher end of the spectrum, though signing either qualifying offer recipient would be expensive from a draft standpoint for the Jays. As Nicholson-Smith notes, adding one of the two could cost the Jays a top 50 pick in 2020.
- As for how the Blue Jays could attract free agents, general manager Ross Atkins contends (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi): “The agility of our roster, the depth of our system, the financial flexibility that we have, the leadership of (manager) Charlie Montoyo and the environment of our clubhouse are all very attractive.” Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star argues now is the time for Atkins and the Jays to use their financial flexibility to court Cole or Stephen Strasburg, but he admits ownership – Rogers Communications – would likely stand in the way.
- Reliever Ryan Tepera elected free agency last week after Toronto designated him for assignment, though his Jays tenure might not be done. On the possibility of re-signing Tepera, Atkins said (via Nicholson-Smith): “We maintain interest in him. If there’s a way for him to pitch for the Blue Jays again, we’ll absolutely make that happen.” The 32-year-old Tepera was an important part of the team’sbullpen from 2015-18, but elbow problems hampered him during a 21 2/3-inning 2019 in which he pitched to a 4.98 ERA.
Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp Hope To Pitch In 2020
Relievers Luke Gregerson and Tony Sipp sat out for large portions of the 2019 season, but that doesn’t mean either veteran is ready to call it quits. Gregerson and Sipp hope to land contracts heading into 2020, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports.
The 35-year-old Gregerson has been especially good since he debuted in the majors in 2009, as his lifetime 3.15 ERA helps illustrate. But injuries have played a key part in stalling the right-hander’s career during the past couple seasons. Gregerson signed a two-year, $11MM contract with the Cardinals entering 2018 and then combined for 18 1/3 innings of 7.36 ERA ball over parts of two seasons limited by hamstring and shoulder issues. The Cardinals released Gregerson back in May, and he hasn’t caught on elsewhere since.
Sipp, 36, had a better 2019 than Gregerson, but that may be not be saying a lot. The Nationals decided in August to cut Sipp, whom they signed to a $1.25MM guarantee going into the season. In the club’s estimation, Sipp wasn’t part of the solution in what was then a maligned bullpen. Of course, the Nats and their relief corps went on to win the World Series two-plus months later without Sipp, who turned in 21 innings of 4.71 ERA/3.55 FIP ball with 7.71 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9.
As has been the case for most of his career, the left-handed Sipp was similarly effective against same- and right-handed hitters alike in 2019. The fact that Sipp has been passable against both could help his cause in trying to secure a contract, as MLB will be going to a three-batter minimum rule in 2020 that should make it especially difficult for lefties who struggle versus righties to find work.
Padres Outright Jacob Nix
The Padres have outrighted hurler Jacob Nix to Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The right-handed Nix had been in limbo since the Padres designated him for assignment Nov. 4.
It’s been a difficult several months for Nix, a promising prospect whom injuries and legal issues weighed down this season. While Nix did debut in the majors in 2018, throwing 42 1/3 innings of 7.02 ERA/5.83 FIP ball, he couldn’t improve on that uninspiring production this year because of elbow problems. The 23-year-old ended up combining for 24 1/3 frames among three minor league levels.
When Nix was healthy enough to take the mound in 2019, he was extremely effective, evidenced by his microscopic 1.85 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. However, an October arrest on criminal trespassing charges represented the latest setback in the former third-round pick’s career. As of now, though, Nix will stay in the San Diego organization and continue trying to work his way back to the majors.
Eddie Rosario Changes Representation
Twins outfielder Eddie Rosario has changed agencies, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. Roc Nation Sports will represent Rosario going forward.
Rosario, who turned 28 in September, is one of many major leaguers fresh off a career-best season in the power department. Across 590 plate appearances, Rosario smashed 32 home runs, helping the Twins amass a record 307 as a team, and posted a .224 ISO – both personal highs for him since he debuted in 2015. At the same time, though, Rosario struggled more than ever to get on base. He ultimately slashed an uninspiring .276/.300/.500 owing in large part to an inability to draw walks.
While Rosario did strike out at a meager 14.6 percent clip this year, he collected free passes just 3.7 percent of the time. Considering his game’s largely predicated on putting the ball in play, the career-low .273 BABIP Rosario logged was especially deleterious. But if we’re to believe Statcast, Rosario wasn’t really the victim of poor luck in 2019. After all, there was almost no difference between his real weighted on-base average (.329) and his expected wOBA (.330).
Despite his flawed campaign, the counting stats Rosario has put up over the past few years have him in good position as he nears his second-last trip to arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Rosario will earn $8.9MM in 2020, though it’s up in the air whether the Twins will retain the three-time 20-home run hitter or attempt to move him in a trade.
Rosario’s change in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agent info on thousands of Major League and Minor League players. If you see any errors or omissions within, please let us know: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Nationals Interested In Josh Donaldson
At least six teams are showing early interest in star free agent Josh Donaldson, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays. The World Series champion Nationals are among the clubs eyeing the third baseman, as are the previously reported Rangers, Phillies and Braves, according to Feinsand.
As those who follow the game know, the Nationals have an even higher-profile free-agent third baseman in Anthony Rendon – hands down the best position player on the market. MLBTR forecasts Rendon will land a $235MM guarantee, which trounces Donaldson’s $75MM projection. Thanks in part to the age difference between the two, the soon-to-be 34-year-old Donaldson lacks the appeal of Rendon, 29, though the former nonetheless remains one of baseball’s most valuable players.
Donaldson, a onetime AL MVP, is coming off a 4.9-fWAR season in which he batted .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs across 659 plate appearances. Atlanta signed the ex-Athletic and Blue Jay to a $23MM guarantee last winter after back-to-back injury-limited campaigns, and it proved to be a brilliant short-term gamble by the Braves. Of course, considering the Braves are one of Washington’s division rivals, the Nationals got plenty of up-close looks at Donaldson in 2019. Unsurprisingly, it seems the Nats came away impressed.
While the Nationals may view Donaldson as a legitimate possibility for their hot corner vacancy, odds are they’d prefer to re-sign Rendon. The big-market, high-spending club has two elite free agents in Rendon and right-hander Stephen Strasburg, and after a championship-winning season, it would be a surprise to see both exit. But if Rendon goes, the Nationals may well turn to the highly accomplished Donaldson as a much less expensive fallback option. Meantime, Donaldson has until Thursday to accept or reject the Braves’ $17.8MM qualifying offer. Turning it down looks like a formality.
Brodie Van Wagenen On Mets’ Offseason Plans
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who’s in the early stages of a crucial second offseason on the job, spoke to reporters about the team’s winter plans Monday. The club’s on the heels of an 86-win season, its third in a row without a playoff berth. There are obvious need areas on the Mets’ roster, then, but it’s up in the air how aggressive they’ll be this offseason with seemingly limited spending room under the budget of owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon.
Infielder Jed Lowrie and outfielder Yoenis Cespedes are among the players clogging up New York’s payroll. Injuries prevented either from factoring in much or at all in 2019, but they (Lowrie – $9MM and Cespedes – $29.5MM) are slated to occupy almost $40MM of the Mets’ payroll next season. Lowrie at least logged some playing time in September, meaning he should be good to go at the start of 2020. However, Lowrie won’t have “a normal offseason considering what he went through last year,” according to Van Wagenen, who noted the Mets have “continued to try to diagnose what Jed’s issues were that kept him out this season” (via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). But signs point to the Mets rolling with Lowrie, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis as their third base options in 2020, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. On paper, that’s a capable trio, and with Robinson Cano at second base and Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto as the Mets’ top two corner outfielders, it would make sense for Lowrie, McNeil and Davis to share the hot corner.
The ongoing presence of Cespedes further complicates the picture in the outfield, but as Van Wagenen said last week, there’s still no indication as to whether he’ll be able to play next year (via Tim Healey of Newsday). Cespedes, the Mets’ highest-paid player, missed all of this season because of ankle issues. If the Mets were sure Cespedes would miss at least 60 days next year, they’d be able to recoup 60 to 70 percent of his money by way of insurance. For now, though, the team doesn’t seem to have any idea as to whether Cespedes will significantly weigh on its payroll going forward.
Regardless of what happens with Cespedes, it seems center field should be a priority for the Mets this offseason. The Mets tried Juan Lagares, Nimmo and Conforto there to underwhelming results in 2019. Lagares is now a free agent after the Mets declined his club option, while Nimmo and Conforto are likely better cut out for corner roles. Indeed, the Mets want to improve their defense in center, per Van Wagenen. Problem is that free agency’s not loaded with obvious solutions at the position, while the best trade candidates at the spot (Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte and Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr.) earn fairly expensive salaries. That’s without adding in the assets they’d cost to acquire, and it’s worth noting Marte’s coming off a poor year as a defender.
Aside from center field, Van Wagenen cited pitching – both rotation and bullpen – as well as backup catcher as areas the club could address in the coming weeks (Twitter links via Mike Puma of the New York Post, Healey and Thosar). The Mets have one of the highest-profile free-agent starters in the game in Zack Wheeler, whom they issued a $17.8MM qualifying offer. While they’d like to re-sign Wheeler, it’s entirely possible he’ll end up out of the Mets’ price range, which would leave them with a still-enviable top of the rotation in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. The team lacks depth after that foursome, though Van Wagenen pointed to David Peterson, Walker Lockett, Chris Flexen and Corey Oswalt as in-house options. If you’re a Mets fan who’s unexcited about the majority of that group, that’s understandable. But Peterson, MLB.com’s seventh-ranked Mets prospect, at least carries some intrigue. The 24-year-old, a 2017 first-round pick, reached the Double-A level this season and notched a 4.19 ERA/3.19 FIP with 9.47 K/9 against 2.87 BB/9 in 116 innings.
As for the Mets’ bullpen, it’s no surprise they’re interested in bettering a bunch that largely fell flat this year. The Mets were aggressive in trying to bolster the unit last offseason, evidenced by the acquisitions of Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson. But Wilson was the only effective member of the trio, and given that the Mets could move either Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman to their rotation, their relief corps looks like an even bigger concern at the moment.
While it’s unclear how the Mets will configure their pitching staff next year, it seems their hurlers will primarily end up throwing to Wilson Ramos. The veteran catcher was yet another of the Mets’ headline-grabbing pickups from last offseason who may not have delivered as hoped in 2019. But despite his defensive deficiencies, the 32-year-old Ramos did record yet another fine offensive campaign. With $9.25MM owed to Ramos next season, it seems the Mets will continue to ride with him behind the plate and seek a defensively sound complement to place behind him.
The Mets are undoubtedly in for a fascinating offseason. The club’s not short on talent, but there are clear flaws at the same time. If Van Wagenen doesn’t find a way to repair them, and if the Mets miss the playoffs yet again, it’s possible they’ll be on the lookout for a new GM a year from now.
MLBTR Chat Transcript 11/11/19
Click here to read a transcript of Monday’s chat with Connor Byrne of MLBTR.
Ryan Tepera Elects Free Agency
Right-handed reliever Ryan Tepera has elected free agency, according to MLB.com’s transactions page. The Blue Jays designated Tepera on Monday, but because he has more than three years of service time, he was able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.
Tepera enjoyed a long run as a member of the Blue Jays, who chose him in the 19th round of the 2009 draft. He debuted in 2015 and was especially productive from 2016-17, a 142 1/3-inning stretch in which he logged a 3.60 ERA with 9.42 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9, before falling off this season.
Elbow troubles (including late-May surgery) limited Tepera to just 21 2/3 innings in 2019, during which he posted a 4.98 ERA/6.03 FIP with a paltry 5.82 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9. The 32-year-old saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 95 mph range to 93.7 in the process, while his swinging-strike rate fell from 14 percent in 2018 to 12.6 this season. Needless to say, this isn’t an ideal time to reach free agency for Tepera, who had been projected to earn $1.6MM in arbitration before Toronto cut him loose.
Trade Candidate: Jon Gray
The Rockies are coming off a 71-win season, and even the most optimistic observer would be hard-pressed to expect a major bounce-back effort in 2020. Not only are the Rockies stuck in a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, who figure to rule the NL West yet again next year, but the Rox seemingly aren’t in position to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. Rockies owner Dick Monfort has said the team lacks payroll flexibility, which suggests it won’t be in for an offseason of headline-worthy acquisitions.
[RELATED: Rockies Offseason Outlook]
The Rockies opened this year with a franchise record $145MM-plus in payroll, and they’re already in line for a 2020 outlay in the $160MM range, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. At least a small portion of that is slated to belong to right-hander Jon Gray, who MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects will make $5.6MM via arbitration next season. However, considering next year will be Gray’s penultimate season of control, now may be as good a time as any for Colorado to trade him.
Gray, who turned 28 earlier this week, has endured his share of ups and downs since he joined the Rockies as the third overall pick in 2013. His results have alternated between very good (especially for someone stuck pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Colorado) and unspectacular, with Gray’s output this year falling in line more with the first category. He racked up 150 innings of 3.84 ERA/4.06 FIP ball with 9.0 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a personal-best 50.4 percent groundball rate. Along the way, Gray posted a career-high 96.1 average mph on his fastball, which ranked in the majors’ 89th percentile, per Statcast.
Aside from his velocity, Gray wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero in 2019, as he finished toward the bottom of the league in most of its key categories. Nevertheless, Gray’s most recent production, his career numbers (4.46 ERA/3.77 FIP with 9.4 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent grounder rate) and his affordability over the next couple years would likely lead to plenty of interest if the Rockies were to place him on the trading block.
With few possible exceptions (Corey Kluber? Matthew Boyd? Chris Archer? Jose Quintana?), this offseason’s class of starters who might be attainable via trade doesn’t look as if it’ll be teeming with front-line potential. Meanwhile, free agency has two obvious aces – Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg – followed by Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and a series of flawed choices. It’s possible some starter-needy teams would just assume swing a trade for Gray than pay up for someone like Jake Odorizzi, who’d also cost a draft pick to reel in, or sign another good but unspectacular free agent.
With Gray, it seems the worst-case scenario is that an acquiring team would be picking up a competent mid- to back-end starter who wouldn’t put much of a dent in its payroll. Best case? The hard-throwing Gray morphs into a front-of-the-rotation bargain. With that in mind, it’s easy to imagine a slew of contenders lining up for Gray’s services if the Rockies were to make him available. Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020, and there hasn’t been any word about a potential Gray extension. All that said, this looks like an opportune time for general manager Jeff Bridich to consider parting with Gray.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Domingo German
Yankees right-hander Domingo German enjoyed a quality 2019 season before it ended in undignified fashion in late September. German went on administrative leave under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy, thus preventing him from participating in the Yankees’ playoff series against the Twins and Astros. Although the league still hasn’t interviewed German, a resolution to his case should occur “in a matter of weeks,” not months, Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post write.
As is always the case with a player involved in a domestic issue, it’s up in the air whether his team will welcome him back. However, the Yankees are the same club that acquired closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in December 2015 when he was amid serious domestic troubles of his own. The league ultimately suspended Chapman for 30 games to open the 2016 season. Now, regardless of whether the Yankees keep German, he could face a ban to start the 2020 campaign after sitting out the last couple weeks of 2019.
The status of German may help inform the Yankees’ offseason plans, as he was one of the team’s most effective rotation options in 2019. The 27-year-old pitched to a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP with 9.63 K/9 against 2.45 BB/9 across 143 innings. The Yankees look like a team in need of starting help right now, and the problems in their rotation will become even more acute if they’re unwilling or unable to pencil German into the group for at least the beginning of next season.