White Sox, Jose Abreu Have Discussed Long-Term Contract
The White Sox have one particularly notable free agent in first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu, who has never looked all that likely to leave the club. Both sides have said time and again that they would like to continue their partnership, and the White Sox protected against Abreu’s exit somewhat by giving him a qualifying offer earlier this week. With that in mind, the Nov. 14 deadline to accept the QO may be moot in the case of Abreu, with whom the White Sox have discussed a long-term contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports.
In Abreu’s case, “long term” could be relatively short. After all, he’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old whom MLBTR has re-signing with the White Sox on a two-year, $28MM deal. Even that total looks somewhat generous for a non-elite hitter who brings little to no defensive value to the table. Just last winter, DH Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with the Twins after a somewhat more impressive season than the one Abreu just had. Cruz was then fresh off a .256/.342/.509 season with 37 home runs, whereas Abreu hit .284/.330/.503 with 33 HRs this year.
Despite Abreu’s ab0ve-average contributions at the plate, the White Sox ranked 18th in the majors in wRC+ and 24th in runs this season. They’re clearly a team in need of offensive help if they’re finally going to return to relevance in 2020, so retaining Abreu for a reasonable sum would make sense. Keeping Abreu would at least enable the White Sox to cancel out one potential need area and move on to other business.
Free Agent Faceoff: Wheeler Vs. Bumgarner Vs. Ryu
It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.
Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No
- No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.
There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?
(Poll link for app users)
Which starter would you sign?
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Madison Bumgarner 40% (5,623)
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Zack Wheeler 38% (5,327)
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Hyun-Jin Ryu 23% (3,191)
Total votes: 14,141
Braves Reportedly Prioritizing Madison Bumgarner
Now that the offseason has begun, we’re likely in for several weeks of rumors centering on longtime Giants left-hander and current free agent Madison Bumgarner. Let’s get the ball rolling in earnest: Atlanta has “made Bumgarner a priority and planned to quickly communicate that to the left-hander,” Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California reports. If Bumgarner doesn’t re-sign with the Giants, the Braves are the front-runners for his services, according to Pavlovic.
For now, Bumgarner has until Nov. 14 to decide whether to accept the $17.8MM qualifying offer the Giants gave him earlier this week. But rejecting it looks like a formality for the 30-year-old Bumgarner, who MLBTR projects will land a four-year, $72MM contract on the open market. Whether the numbers are exact remains to be seen, but Bumgarner’s surely in line for a substantial payday, so the main question is whether San Francisco will be the team that hands it to him.
The Giants are the lone club Bumgarner has known since they selected him 10th overall in the 2007 draft. Although he has since turned into a decorated hurler who has helped the Giants to three championships, there hasn’t been any indication that the team has seriously pursued a contract extension. The Giants did elect against selling off Bumgarner prior to the July 31 trade deadline, but it’s possible they would have gone another way had it not been for an improbable midsummer surge. The team ultimately faded after its torrid July stretch, finishing 77-85, and now it could lose Bumgarner for nothing more than draft-pick compensation if he rejects its QO and heads elsewhere.
In the event Bumgarner does leave the Giants, Atlanta looks like a reasonable fit on paper for the North Carolina native. With Dallas Keuchel now on the free-agent market, the Braves are known to be looking for at least one capable veteran starter to complement Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz. And Bumgarner, unlike Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg (the top two starters available), wouldn’t cost a bank-breaking amount or force the Braves to make an extraordinarily long-term commitment. Of course, there’s an obvious reason for that: Bumgarner, despite his past accomplishments, isn’t nearly as good as Cole or Strasburg at this point. While he was a front-line starter during his younger days, Bumgarner now looks more like a quality mid-rotation arm.
Bumgarner’s on the market fresh off a 207 2/3-inning season (his seventh year of 200-plus frames) in which he pitched to a matching 3.90 ERA/FIP with 8.8 K/9, 1.86 BB/9 and a career-low 35.8 percent groundball rate. For the most part, those numbers look closer to good than spectacular, though they’d still be welcome in just about anyone’s rotation – including the Braves’.
NL Notes: Carpenter, Giants, Mets
A quick look around the National League…
- The 2019 season was surprisingly pedestrian for Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, a normally excellent producer who fell flat after the team signed him to a two-year, $39MM extension in April. Carpenter stepped to the plate 492 times and hit a mediocre .226/.334/.392 with 15 home runs, giving him the lowest wRC+ (95) and fWAR (1.2) he has posted over a full season since debuting in 2011. But Carpenter, who will turn 34 later this month, seemingly hasn’t lost the confidence of Cardinals brass. ”‘Carp’ obviously will have a better season, we expect. He’s highly motivated,” chairman Bill DeWitt said this week (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). President of baseball operations John Mozeliak echoed that sentiment, saying the Cardinals’ confidence in Carpenter is “high” and calling this year “an outlier.” Of course, the Cardinals don’t have much choice but to publicly show faith in Carpenter, whom they’re likely stuck with because of the money left on his contract and his no-trade clause.
- As of last week, Royals quality control coach Pedro Grifol was reportedly one of the finalists to become the Giants’ next manager. That no longer seems to be the case, though. Grifol is now completely out of the race, according to the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea, who names ex-Phillies manager Gabe Kapler, current Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as the last candidates standing. Grifol, Kapler, Espada and Quartaro make up four of 10-plus candidates who have interviewed with the Giants, per Shea. There’s no deadline to hire a new skipper, however, and with the Giants one of just two teams without a manager, there’s seemingly no reason to rush.
- The Mets negotiated with relievers Daniel Hudson and Jake Diekman when they were free agents a year ago, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports. The club ultimately didn’t land either, instead watching Hudson sign with the Angels on a minor league contract and Diekman land with the Royals for a guaranteed $2.75MM. Hudson then wound up with the Blue Jays and finished the season as a member of the Nationals, with whom he emerged as one of many key cogs during their improbable World Series run. Diekman concluded the campaign with the Athletics, who traded for him in July. Now that Hudson and Diekman are back on the open market, the Mets – who remain in need of competent relievers – could again push for one or both, though there’s no indication they plan on doing so.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 11/6/19
Click here to read a transcript of tonight’s chat with Connor Byrne of MLBTR.
Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The 2019 season didn’t end in ideal fashion for the Yankees, but there is no debating that they posted one of the most impressive years of any team in baseball. A litany of major injuries threatened to torpedo their campaign from Day 1, but the club seldom faltered in the face of that overwhelming adversity. Instead, the Yankees plugged in one surprisingly effective cog after another en route to 103 victories – the third-highest total in the game – and their first AL East title since 2012. The Yankees once again made easy work of the Twins in the ALDS, but just as New York has toyed with Minnesota in October, Houston has done the same to the Bronx Bombers. The Astros eliminated the Yankees for the third time since 2015, cutting them down in a six-game ALCS. Now, general manager Brian Cashman has to continue trying to figure out how to get his team over the Houston hump and back atop the sport.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $244MM through 2027 (including $10MM buyout for ’28)
- Aaron Hicks, OF: $61MM through 2025
- Aroldis Chapman, RP: $48MM through 2022
- Luis Severino, RHP: $34MM through 2022 (including $2.75MM buyout for ’23)
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $26.1MM through 2020 (including $5MM buyout for ’21)
- Zack Britton, RP: $26MM through 2021
- Masahiro Tanaka, RHP: $23MM through 2020
- Adam Ottavino, RP: $18MM through 2021
- J.A. Happ, LHP: $17MM through 2020 (also has $17MM vesting option for ’21)
- DJ LeMahieu, INF: $12MM through 2020
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- James Paxton – $12.9MM
- Tommy Kahnle – $3.0MM
- Tyler Lyons – $800K
- Greg Bird – $1.3MM
- Gary Sanchez – $5.6MM
- Aaron Judge – $6.4MM
- Chad Green – $1.4MM
- Jordan Montgomery – $1.2MM
- Luis Cessa – $1.1MM
- Gio Urshela – $2.2MM
- Jonathan Holder – $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Lyons, Bird, Holder
Option Decisions
- Edwin Encarnacion, DH/1B: Declined $20MM club option in favor of a $5MM buyout
Free Agents
The offseason is only in its infancy, but Cashman has already gotten a couple key orders of business out of the way. For one, there won’t be any question as to who will be closing games for the Yankees in 2020. The Yankees were facing the departure of star closer Aroldis Chapman, who had a chance to opt out of the last two years and $30MM left on his contract, but the two sides prevented that from happening last weekend. New York added a third year and $18MM to Chapman’s deal, giving him a pact worth $48MM over three seasons. It’s a reasonable deal for the Yankees, as Chapman – despite the series-losing home run he allowed to Houston – remains one of the majors’ premier relievers. Considering Chapman’s lengthy track record of excellence, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see him break Wade Davis‘ average annual value record for a reliever ($17.33MM per annum) had he gotten to free agency, but the Yankees managed to retain their game-ending southpaw for less.
Turning to the position player side, Cashman had noteworthy calls to make at shortstop and at designated hitter/first base the past few days. And he may have opted to say goodbye to two of the Yankees’ most recognizable players in shortstop Didi Gregorius and slugger Edwin Encarnacion. Gregorius is a revered Yankee who was one of the league’s elite shortstops from 2017-18, but he fell flat this year after sitting out the first few months while recovering from Tommy John surgery. As a result of the underwhelming production Gregorius mustered, the Yankees decided not to issue him a $17.8MM qualifying offer. He’s now on the open market without draft compensation weighing him down.
Whether to qualify Gregorius looked like the type of decision that could have gone either way, whereas it’s no surprise the Yankees pulled the plug on Encarnacion’s $20MM option in favor of a $5MM buyout. Encarnacion remains a serious home run threat and a formidable offensive player, but for a soon-to-be 37-year-old with no real defensive value, his option was unpalatable.
Now that Gregorius and Encarnacion aren’t on the Yankees’ roster anymore, it’s fair to wonder what the team will do to replace them. It’s entirely possible they’ll re-up either or both if their markets don’t materialize as hoped. But if not, the Yankees are seemingly in the luxurious position of having ready-made replacements on hand. They could slide budding star second baseman Gleyber Torres to short to replace Gregorius, thus leaving the keystone to versatile infielder DJ LeMahieu. Alternatively, if the Yankees want to make their latest enormous offseason splash on the trade market, they could at least inquire on the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story. Finding a way to trade for either, albeit at would surely be a sizable cost in assets, would enable the Yankees to keep Torres at second and continue to move LeMahieu around the infield.
The Yankees may need LeMahieu at first and/or third, as there’s an argument their options there aren’t incredibly trustworthy. Third baseman Gio Urshela had an out-of-nowhere breakout season in 2019, but is it sustainable? And the player he replaced, Miguel Andujar, missed almost the entire season with a shoulder injury and wasn’t exactly a source of defensive brilliance as a rookie the previous year. The Yankees may be able to live with Andujar’s defensive shortcomings if he regains form at the plate, especially if they can rotate him in at DH on occasion, but who’s to say he’ll be the same hitter in 2020?
At first base, the Yankees have a pair of sluggers – Luke Voit and Mike Ford – who look capable of holding down the fort (that’s assuming the Yanks abandon their long-running dreams of a Greg Bird breakout and don’t make any other moves like bringing back Encarnacion). Voit’s coming off an injury-wrecked season in which he tailed off badly toward the end, though, and the 27-year-old Ford has just 163 major league plate appearances to his name. LeMahieu would continue to make for nice insurance at both corners, then, though how often he lines up there could depend on whether there’s a Gregorius re-signing or a different middle infield acquisition.
Are there any other splashy scenarios in which the Yankees could give their infield a boost? Sure, they could sign Anthony Rendon to play third base for $200MM-plus or maybe even Josh Donaldson for something in the vicinity of $60MM-$80MM. But if the Yankees, who are always mindful of the luxury tax, are going to spend an exorbitant amount on a free agent, it seems more likely to be a pitcher than a position player.
Meantime, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Yankees re-sign outfielder Brett Gardner, their longest-tenured player, to what should be another relatively affordable short-term contract. The 36-year-old stuck around on a $7.5MM guarantee last offseason and then proceeded to record one of the most productive seasons of his career. Gardner also showed he’s still capable of manning center, which is hugely important for a New York team whose starter, Aaron Hicks, recently underwent Tommy John surgery. With Hicks set to miss a large portion of 2019, the Yankees need a viable center fielder to slot in alongside corner options Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Tauchman, Clint Frazier and, if he re-signs, Cameron Maybin. Free agency’s not teeming with appealing possibilities, though, and trading for Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte may not make sense with Hicks due back in several months and under team control for the long haul. With that in mind, it seems realistic to expect Gardner back in the Bronx in 2020.
Let’s shift to catcher, where Gary Sanchez is coming off another year in which he drew fan and media ire for his strikeout tendencies at the plate and his defensive troubles behind it. Could the Yankees now try to deal Sanchez and look for an upgrade? Possibly. But where would they get this upgrade? Sanchez is hands down a better choice than every free agent but Yasmani Grandal, who’s four years older and looks likely to command a guarantee worth more than $60MM. And unlike last offseason, there’s no J.T. Realmuto on the trade market. What does that mean? Expect Sanchez back in pinstripes next year, possibly with Kyle Higashioka as a backup to replace free agent Austin Romine.
And now we arrive at the pitching staff, a source of frustration for Yankees fans in 2019. The Yankees had to go through almost the entire year without their ace, Luis Severino, whose shoulder and lat injuries held him to 12 regular-season innings. The good news is that he should be ready to lead their starting staff again in 2020, while James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka will continue to provide a pair of nice complements. But what about the rest of the rotation? There’s no more CC Sabathia, who called it a (Hall of Fame?) career. Meanwhile, unless they swap him for another bad contract, the Yankees are probably stuck with the aging J.A. Happ for the last season of a two-year, $34MM pact. There’s a chance they may never get another pitch from 2019 standout Domingo German, whose season ended in September when he landed on administrative leave under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy. Deivi Garcia‘s the organization’s No. 1 prospect, though he’s still just 20 and has thrown a mere 40 innings at the Triple-A level (where he posted a 5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP this year). Jordan Montgomery (a 2018 Tommy John patient) and Jonathan Loaisiga could be wild cards, but the Yankees might be pressing their luck by locking either of them into rotation jobs.
Frankly, if the Yankees want to go into Evil Empire mode and try to steal a high-priced free agent from the rest of the league, the rotation seems like the place for it. There happen to be a couple aces on the table in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but whether the Yankees would crush the $200MM mark for the former and go well above $150MM for the latter is in question. While it’s well-documented that the Yankees have coveted Cole in the past, it’s worth noting they haven’t reeled in a free agent for anything close to the type of money he’s about to receive since they re-signed Alex Rodriguez to a $275MM deal entering 2008. George Steinbrenner was still alive at that point. That doesn’t mean today’s Hal Steinbrenner-run Yankees won’t sign Cole, Strasburg or at least someone like Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it would be difficult to call the Yankees favorites in any of those cases.
It may be easier to envision a trade for a starter coming together, considering Cashman has swung deals for the likes of Paxton, Happ, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn over the past couple years. Would he do it again, this time for someone like Corey Kluber or Matthew Boyd? It’s doubtful anyone but a Cole or a Strasburg would suffice for a high number of Yankees fans, but with Severino back at full strength, there’s a case the team doesn’t have to pick up a true front-line type before next season.
Regardless of how the Yankees fill out the rest of their rotation before next year, the offseason heavy lifting in their bullpen already appears to be done with Chapman staying in the mix. The Yankees doled out a combined $66MM in guarantees to Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino in free agency last winter. For the most part, those signings have worked out well so far. Those two will be back, while Chapman, Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green (if he doesn’t fill an opener role next season), Luis Cessa and Loaisiga are among holdovers who could or will join them.
At this point, the main concern centering on New York’s bullpen is whether its relationship with longtime force Dellin Betances is over. The Yankees showed they could succeed in 2019 without the four-time All-Star, whom shoulder problems stopped from making his season debut until Sept. 15. Betances retired both batters he faced that day in Toronto, but he suffered a partial left Achilles tear while hopping off the mound at the end of the inning. That brought a quick and cruel close to a Murphy’s Law season for Betances, and it was especially inopportune during a contract year. However, the injury’s not so severe that it will hinder the soon-to-be 32-year-old from faring somewhat nicely on the open market. MLBTR has Betances in line for a $7MM guarantee, and with the tax-minded Yankees paying close attention to every penny nowadays, they may deem that too expensive for a reliever coming off a lost season.
As always, the Yankees will be one of the game’s most fascinating teams to watch this offseason. Are they a sleeping giant that could swoop in for Lindor, Cole or maybe even both? Perhaps. On the other hand, the Yankees are talented enough that they could mostly stand pat in the coming months and enter 2020 in better shape than just about everyone else. The avenue they take will depend on how much much Steinbrenner’s willing to spend on a roster that exceeded the luxury tax this year and already looks as if it’s on pace to breeze past the $208MM threshold for next season. Unless Steinbrenner’s OK with outspending the second penalty bracket ($228MM) or even the third ($248MM), this might not be a particularly eventful winter in the Bronx.
Latest On Cubs’ Bench Coach Position
Mark Loretta recently finished his first season as the Cubs’ bench coach, but with a new manager at the helm, it could end up as his last. Loretta is under consideration to retain the bench coach position, but they’re interviewing other candidates for the job, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription link). Former Padres manager Andy Green is among those “on the team’s radar,” Mooney and Sharma write.
Loretta’s a former major league infielder who spent significant time in the Padres’ front office after his playing career ended in 2009. He jumped ship for the Cubs last offseason to join Joe Maddon’s staff, but the Cubs parted with the latter after a campaign that fell shy of expectations. Although Loretta was among those who interviewed with the Cubs to replace Maddon, they instead wound up hiring one of their former players, David Ross. Loretta also interviewed for the managerial opening in San Diego, where he’d have replaced Green had he landed the job. However, the Padres chose Jayce Tingler over Loretta and other candidates.
The bench coach hire figures to be especially important for Ross, as he’s a first-time skipper who possesses no coaching experience in MLB. Green has totaled almost four years as a big league manager, having led the rebuilding Padres until they sent him to an early exit this past September. Before joining the Padres, Green managed in the minors and spent a year as a third base coach with the Diamondbacks.
Latest On Mets’ Rotation
The Mets have begun the offseason in a bit of a bind in their rotation. On one hand, they have a 1-4 most teams would gladly sign up for in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. On the other, they’re facing the loss of Zack Wheeler – undoubtedly one of the best free agents available – and find themselves lacking answers at the back of their starting staff.
Considering the Mets play in a massive market, they should theoretically have the money to re-sign Wheeler and/or acquire some other pricey starter. But the Mets don’t behave like a team with a near-endless supply of money, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained a couple weeks ago, paying for improvements looks as if it will be a challenge for the club this offseason. The Mets have never started a season with a $160MM-plus payroll, yet they already appear to be above that figure right now without having made a single offseason improvement. Barring a significant spike in payroll, then, it’s doubtful the Mets will be serious players for Wheeler or any other starters who are remotely close to the top of the market.
Thanks in part to their payroll problems, the Mets seem to be making in-house contingency plans for the back of their starting staff. When introducing new manager Carlos Beltran on Monday, GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters including Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription link) that the Mets are considering deploying Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo as starters in 2020. The two “are preparing this offseason with the expectations that they may well enter the rotation,” according to Van Wagenen.
Gsellman and Lugo were starters as prospects who frequented the Mets’ rotation a few years back, but they’ve settled into relief roles in recent years. Still just 26 years old, Gsellman thrived as a starter during a brief debut in 2016, but his bubble burst the next season. Since then, all 120 of Gsellman’s appearances have come as a reliever. He amassed 63 2/3 innings over 52 appearances this year and logged a 4.66 ERA/4.13 FIP with 8.48 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9. Those aren’t great numbers, though Gsellman did average a career-high 95.4 mph on his fastball and 90.6 mph on his slider. He also ranked near the top of the majors in curveball spin (83rd percentile), hard-hit rate against (88th percentile) and average exit velocity against (85.3 mph; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.
Gsellman’s more traditional production hasn’t been dominant, whereas Lugo has been lights-out since moving to the bullpen on essentially a full-time basis in 2018. The soon-to-be 30-year-old pitched to a matching 2.70 ERA/FIP with outstanding strikeout and walk rates (11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9) in 61 appearances and 80 innings this season. Like Gsellman, Lugo’s fastball (94.4 mph) and slider (88.1 mph) clocked in at personal highs, and he was another Statcast favorite. Amazingly, Lugo’s curve spin ranked in the game’s 100th percentile, while his expected weighted on-base average against (.234, compared to a real .237 wOBA against) placed in the 99th percentile.
To varying extents, Gsellman and Lugo have clearly been assets for New York’s bullpen. Whether that would carry into the team’s starting five if necessary remains to be seen. However, moving one or both into the rotation may just create another hole for the club. The Mets’ bullpen, after all, was a consistent issue throughout this year and looks like an area they’ll somehow have to address as a result. That already looks as if it will be difficult when considering what seems like a lack of financial wiggle room for the team, and that’s with Gsellman and Lugo penciled in to remain part of the late-game setup.
The Mets are in a good spot with deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman and Matz, though there’s little in the way of solutions or depth otherwise. That helps explain why Van Wagenen claimed lefty Stephen Gonsalves, a former top 100 prospect, from the Twins on Monday. Gonsalves could end up as one of at least a few low-cost hurlers the Mets pick up this offseason as they look for back-of-the-rotation help. But if no one they bring in pans out, perhaps Gsellman or Lugo will slot back into a starting role.
Yankees Interview David Cone For Pitching Coach Vacancy
The Yankees have added an interesting name to their search for a pitching coach. Former major league right-hander David Cone interviewed for the position last week, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. He joins college pitching coaches Chris Fetter (University of Michigan) and Matt Hobbs (Arkansas) as the only known candidates for the job.
The Yankees have been in the market for a pitching coach since they parted with Larry Rothschild last week. Rothschild had held the role since 2011, but Aaron Boone – who inherited Rothschild upon his hiring as manager two years ago – elected to go in another direction. Boone and the Yankees are reportedly seeking someone with a more modern approach than what Rothschild offered.
Cone, like Boone, could now join the Yankees’ staff straight out of the broadcast booth. A member of the Royals, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox from 1986-2003, Cone has been a consistent presence on Yankees broadcasts on the YES Network since his playing career ended. While the soon-to-be 57-year-old Cone is much older than the two 30-somethings Fetter and Hobbs, his expertise as a former star MLB hurler – not to mention the openness to analytics he displays as a color commentator – could make him a real contender for the role.
MLBTR Poll: Nats’ Top Two Free Agents
Just under a week after knocking off the Astros in a seven-game World Series, the Nationals are undoubtedly still reveling over their first championship. But now that the offseason has arrived, they’re at risk of losing a few key contributors to free agency.
Two of the many faces of the Nationals’ improbable playoff run were right-hander Stephen Strasburg and third baseman Anthony Rendon, who each seemed to come up with one heroic moment after another throughout the postseason. Strasburg deservedly earned World Series MVP honors after going on a particularly jaw-dropping run. It’s no surprise he and Rendon, who have consistently been among the Nationals’ top players and the majors’ most impressive performers throughout their careers, were among the main catalysts for the club’s championship. And now that they’re unsigned heading into 2020, they’re about to be paid rather handsomely for their years-long shows of brilliance. The question is whether they’ll continue with the Nationals going forward.
MLBTR regards the Nationals as the favorites to sign both Strasburg and Rendon, though doing so will require the team to put its enviable financial might on full display. We project the 31-year-old Strasburg (six years, $180MM) and the 29-year-old Rendon (seven years, $235MM) to combine for $415MM on their next contracts. That type of commitment may be especially risky in the case of Strasburg – not only owing to the fact that he’s a pitcher, but because injuries have been somewhat common throughout his career. Although Strasburg did just toss a career-high 209 regular-season innings in 2019, he’s only a year removed from a 130-frame showing – which was the latest of a handful of abbreviated campaigns in his career.
Of course, the point of this exercise isn’t to list the few flaws Strasburg and Rendon may have. It’s to ask whether the Nationals will re-sign one, both or either of the superstar Scott Boras clients. Fresh off a fairytale few months, there’s surely motivation for both sides to work something out. Rendon has indicated in the past he’d like to continue his career with the only organization he has known since it selected him in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. Strasburg, meanwhile, first joined the franchise as an extremely hyped No. 1 pick in 2009. While Strasburg did just opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM left on his contract, that common sense business decision doesn’t necessarily mean he’s champing at the bit to leave D.C. What do you think the future holds for him and Rendon?
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Nats re-sign Strasburg or Rendon?
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Yes to both 30% (3,419)
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Strasburg 28% (3,202)
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Rendon 26% (2,891)
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They won't keep either 16% (1,797)
Total votes: 11,309