Free Agent Stock Watch: Nationals
The thrilling first game of the World Series just wrapped up with Washington pulling off a 5-4 victory in Houston. If you’re a neutral observer, you may be hoping for six more games just like that one. However long the series lasts, though, both teams stand to see some key contributors reach the open market thereafter. Let’s start with a review of the Nationals’ pending free agents…
Anthony Rendon, 3B:
- I’m not going to tell you anything you don’t already know in regards to Rendon. The 29-year-old is coming off yet another world-class season, perhaps an MVP-level campaign, and is finally getting the national recognition his play has long warranted. As hands down the premier soon-to-be free-agent position player, Rendon has a strong case for a guarantee worth $225MM or more.
Brian Dozier, 2B:
- Dozier was an elite second baseman with the Twins for a few years leading up to 2018, but he hasn’t been the same player dating back to then. After a down season divided between the Twins and Dodgers, the Nationals signed Dozier to a one-year, $9MM contract last winter. Dozier enjoyed somewhat of a bounce-back regular season, hitting .238/.340/.430 with 20 home runs and 1.7 fWAR in 482 plate appearances. That’s still not great production, though, and odds are the 32-year-old will have to settle for another single-season guarantee (very likely for less money) in his next trip to free agency.
Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/3B:
- As with Dozier, Kendrick’s likely heading for a one-year deal. However, in Kendrick’s case, that has far more to do with age than performance. After all, the long-solid Kendrick, 36, has been an offensive machine all season. Kendrick slashed a jaw-dropping .344/.395/.572 with 17 homers in 370 PA during the regular campaign, when Statcast more than backed up his bottom-line output. Just four qualified hitters (some names you may recognize in Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and Nelson Cruz) outdid Kendrick’s .418 expected weighted on-base average. Kendrick has further cemented himself in Washington lore with a productive postseason, with his decisive grand slam in Game 5 of the team’s NLDS victory over the Dodgers sure to count among the franchise’s greatest moments for decades to come.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/3B:
- The 33-year-old Cabrera has been an outstanding in-season pickup for Washington, which grabbed him off the scrapheap after Texas released him in early August. Cabrera was only a .235/.318/.393 hitter at that point, but he slashed an excellent .323/.404/.565 in 146 regular-season PA after donning a Nats uniform. Cabrera’s D.C. production should be enough to earn him another guaranteed deal in the offseason.
Gerardo Parra, OF:
- It’s hard to believe, but Parra has turned into a folk hero in Washington since the club brought him on a low-cost deal toward the beginning of May. At that point, Parra was the owner of a paltry .546 OPS and someone the Giants understandably jettisoned despite obvious needs in their outfield. Not only has Parra hit a much-improved .250/.300/.447 in 204 trips to the plate since then, but his “Baby Shark” intro has helped make him a fan and clubhouse favorite. It doesn’t look as if Parra would be a bad investment on what’s sure to be another low-paying deal.
Daniel Hudson, RP:
- The hard-throwing Hudson didn’t appear to be an exciting addition for the Nationals when they acquired him from the Blue Jays at the July trade deadline, but he has since established himself an indispensable part of their bullpen. Hudson pitched to a 1.44 ERA (with a 3.53 FIP) and totaled 23 strikeouts against two walks in 25 regular-season innings as a Nat. The brilliance has largely continued in the postseason for the 32-year-old, who has thrown seven frames of one-earned run ball and converted all four of his save chances. Hudson had to settle for a $1.5MM contract with the Jays right before the season started, but he should do far better next time. A two-year deal in the $10MM range could be in the offing this winter.
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP:
- Hellickson was a quality member of the Nationals’ pitching staff in 2018, which led the club to bring back the former AL Rookie of the Year on a $1.3MM guarantee last winter. At that price, it was a gamble worth taking for the Nationals, but it didn’t work out. The 32-year-old Hellickson struggled into May before missing the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Assuming Hellickson signs somewhere in the offseason, he’ll be getting a minor league pact.
Fernando Rodney, RP:
- This season has been a wild ride for the 42-year-old Rodney, who bombed with the Athletics in the early going, got his release in late May, signed a minors deal with the Nats a week later and is now part of a World Series roster. The nomadic arrow slinger tossed 33 1/3 regular-season innings of 4.05 ERA/3.72 FIP ball and posted 9.5 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 after the Nationals brought him up in late June. Rodney has added 2 2/3 scoreless frames during the playoffs. Will that be enough for Rodney to pick up a major league deal over the winter? Perhaps, but he’s obviously not going to break the bank.
Jonny Venters, RP:
- Venters, who has seemingly overcome one awful injury after another during his career, will have to do so yet again. No stranger to the operating table, Venters underwent yet another serious procedure (on a torn capsule in his left shoulder) in August. The 34-year-old’s career could conceivably be over, though he’ll try to get off the mat one more time.
Trade Candidate: Jose Quintana
The Cubs, in the wake of a 2019 showing that can’t be classified as much other than a brutal disappointment, are now facing several fascinating offseason questions. Among them: Which person should they choose to succeed ousted championship manager Joe Maddon? Should they shop Kris Bryant or any other stars? Should they make a serious effort to re-sign soon-to-be free agent Nicholas Castellanos? There may not be an obvious answer to any of those questions, but there is in regards to the future of left-hander Jose Quintana. Should the Cubs exercise his $11.5MM option (in lieu of a $1MM buyout) for next season? Absolutely.
To be clear, 2019 was not a stellar season for Quintana, whom the Cubs acquired from the White Sox in July 2017 in what could go down as a costly trade for the North Siders. The Cubs gave up then-prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease, two players who now look as if they’ll be cornerstones for the White Sox. It was understandable from the Cubs’ perspective at the time, as Quintana was then one of the game’s most underrated front-line workhorses – not to mention someone on a sweetheart contract.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, Quintana simply hasn’t produced like the under-the-radar standout from the White Sox since they got him. At that point, Quintana was coming off four straight seasons of 200-plus innings – an 814 2/3-frame span in which he notched a 3.35 ERA/3.34 FIP with 7.73 K/9 and 2.23 BB/9. The Cubs’ Quintana hasn’t amassed more than 188 2/3 innings in a season, and his run prevention has fallen off since his South Side salad days. Quintana owns a less impressive 4.23 ERA/3.95 FIP in 429 2/3 frames as a Cub.
To Quintana’s credit, he has struck out 8.55 hitters per nine against 2.83 walks since changing Chicago addresses. His 91-92 mph average fastball velocity and roughly 8 percent swinging-strike rate have also remained intact in recent years. So, unlike some other prominent pitchers whose bottom-line results have recently declined (Chris Archer?), Quintana’s far from broken. It’s pretty clear Quintana’s still an asset, though whether the Cubs see him as integral enough to keep in 2020 – his last year of team control – is up in the air.
Again, it should be a slam dunk to say yes to Quintana’s option. But will the Cubs shop the soon-to-be 31-year-old around after picking it up? On one hand, the answer should be no. The Cubs don’t have clear non-Quintana solutions in their rotation aside from Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester, especially with Cole Hamels set for free agency, and they’re not teeming with young starters who are about to take the league by storm. With that in mind, keeping Quintana would be a perfectly defensible choice from the team’s perspective. On the other hand, there’s a case the Cubs are really in position to shake things up this winter, and parting with Quintana could prove to be part of their restructuring. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein was upset with Chicago’s performance off a playoff berth a year ago, so he may well be apoplectic behind the scenes now after a late collapse and no October ball this season.
One problem for Chicago, which is leery of the luxury tax, is that it hardly has an endless supply of spending room. The Cubs opened 2019 with a payroll a little over $203MM, per Cot’s. MLBTR’s Chicago aficionado, Tim Dierkes, forecasts something in the $205MM range (slightly below the tax) for next season. Including arbitration projections and excluding likely non-tender Addison Russell, the Cubs come in around $180MM. Finding a way to shave Quintana’s money via trade would free up quite a bit more spending space for the club while perhaps opening the door for a major upgrade (would it pursue Gerrit Cole?). And it shouldn’t be that challenging for the Cubs to find a taker for Quintana, who’s better than the extreme majority of pending free-agent starters.
Pound for pound, aside from Cole, opt-out candidate Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, are there any free agents-to-be who are clearly preferable to Quintana? Hamels? Dallas Keuchel? Jake Odorizzi? Arguably, but they’ll all come at higher commitments than what Quintana’s owed next year. Quintana’s affordability could help persuade the Cubs to retain him, but if they shop him in an effort to make over their roster, there should be a solid amount of interest from around the league.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Poll: Record Money For Gerrit Cole?
Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is just moments away from taking the ball against the Nationals in Game 1 of the teams’ World Series matchup. It’s a well-deserved honor for Cole, who has perhaps been the premier pitcher in baseball this season. The 29-year-old logged a sterling 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 13.82 K/9 against 2.03 BB/9 over 212 1/3 regular-season innings in 2019. He was far and away the league leader in strikeouts (326), totaling 26 more than second-place finisher and Astros co-ace Justin Verlander.
Since his incredible regular season ended, Cole has added to his mystique with what has been a legendary playoff run. Cole dismantled the Rays and Yankees over three starts and 22 2/3 innings during the AL playoffs, yielding a mere one earned run on 10 hits with 32 strikeouts against eight walks. Unsurprisingly, the Astros went 3-0 in those games.
Cole may next help pitch the Astros to a World Series title in the coming days, but he’ll have plenty ahead of him after that. Not only does Cole look like a strong possibility to win his first Cy Young Award when the Fall Classic ends, but he might be weeks from scoring the largest contract a pitcher has ever received. To this point, just four hurlers – David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer (Cole’s Game 1 World Series opponent) and Zack Greinke (now a Cole teammate) – have landed guarantees of $200MM or more. For now, the most valuable pact ever continues to belong to Price, whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $217MM entering 2016.
There may have been skepticism earlier in the season in regards to Cole’s chances of joining Price and the rest of the $200MM club, but there shouldn’t be anymore. The question now doesn’t seem to be whether Cole, a pending free agent, will land a $200MM-plus guarantee; rather, it’s by how much his next deal will exceed that mark. The only potential free-agent starter who’s anywhere close to Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, a World Series foe, but he’s not even a lock to reach the open market. For Strasburg, doing so would mean opting out of the four years and $100MM left on his pact. Should Strasburg do it? Probably. But even if he does, it won’t preclude Cole from securing one of the richest (if not the richest) contracts anyone in the game has ever received.
It’s not hard to imagine deep-pocketed teams like Cole’s Astros, the Angels, Yankees, Nats, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants, not to mention lower-payroll clubs like the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Padres, among those in the mix for his services. So, there ought to be plenty of competition for Cole, which should help agent Scott Boras’ cause as he shops his star client around the league during the offseason. With Boras’ help, Cole may be on the verge of reeling in the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Do you expect it to happen?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Gerrit Cole's guarantee exceed $217MM?
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Yes 79% (5,846)
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No 21% (1,544)
Total votes: 7,390
Joe Girardi The Reported Favorite In Phillies’ Managerial Search
Oct. 22: Girardi has emerged as the favorite in the Phillies search for a new manager, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen hears the same.
A match with the Phillies is not a foregone conclusion, however; Girardi is undergoing a second interview with the Mets today, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link), so he’s still very much in the running for one of Philadelphia’s division rivals. There’s been no indication of a contract offer to this point. Even if (or when) the Phils do make an offer, it’s possible that Girardi will prefer one of the other openings for which he’s interviewed. He’s been tied most prominently to the vacancies in Philadelphia, New York and Chicago, and it appears increasingly likely that he’ll be back in a big league dugout in 2020.
Oct. 21: Phillies owner John Middleton had the determining vote in the team’s decision to fire manager Gabe Kapler, and he could wield his power again in finding a new skipper. Middleton’s said to be “leaning toward” Joe Girardi as the choice, while other members of the Phillies’ hierarchy are fans of fellow finalist Buck Showalter, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. There’s no word on whether Dusty Baker, who has also been in the mix, is still a candidate for the job.
Girardi, reportedly the favorite for the position, had his second interview with the club Monday. Unlike Kapler, a first-time MLB skipper at the time of his hiring, Girardi brings a wealth of experience in the role. The 55-year-old oversaw the NL East rival Marlins back in 2006, when he led a low-payroll club to 78 wins en route to NL Manager of the Year honors. The dysfunctional Marlins fired Girardi in the wake of that season, though, and after a year off, he accepted the Yankees’ managerial job entering 2008. Girardi, who ultimately remained in the position through 2017, helped the Yankees to six playoff berths. In Girardi’s crowning achievement as New York’s manager, the team knocked off his next potential employer, Philadelphia, in the 2009 World Series.
Showalter, seemingly Girardi’s main competition, also comes with significant experience as a manager (20 years, to be exact). As of last week, Middleton was reportedly collecting information from players on Showalter. There’s already quite a bit of familiarity between Showalter and key members of the Phillies’ front office, making it unsurprising they’re interested in hiring the 63-year-old. Showalter last managed in Baltimore, where now-Philly president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak worked before landing their current gigs. MacPhail hired Showalter to steer the Orioles, but it doesn’t appear the two will be reuniting if Girardi truly is Middleton’s No. 1 target.
David Hale Elects Free Agency
Veteran right-hander David Hale has elected free agency, according to the International League transactions page. The Yankees outrighted Hale on Oct. 19. He had been projected to earn $900K in arbitration.
This may conclude Hale’s time with the Yankees, but it’s worth noting they’ve brought him back in the past after cutting him loose. The club designated Hale for assignment on three separate occasions during the 2018 campaign, though the well-traveled 32-year-old stuck around and managed impressive numbers this season.
Hale, who divided 2019 between New York and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, put up a strong 3.11 ERA/3.32 FIP with 5.5 K/9, 1.67 BB/9 and a 50 percent groundball rate across 20 relief appearances and 37 2/3 big league innings. As a starter in the minors, Hale totaled seven outings and 32 2/3 frames of 4.13 ERA/4.08 FIP ball with 8.27 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 and a 53.3 percent grounder rate. However, a lumbar spine strain derailed his summer, sidelining from the last week of July until the final days of September.
Latest On Giants’ Managerial Search
The Giants have identified at least seven serious candidates in their search for departed manager Bruce Bochy’s successor. Regardless of who ultimately gets the job, it appears it’ll be president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi making the call. Giants ownership is putting “the entirety of this decision” in Zaidi’s hands, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic writes (subscription link). That isn’t the case for every team with a managerial opening, as we’ve seen with the Phillies.
As for those in the running for San Francisco’s job, Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay may be the favorite. One source told Baggarly it’ll be a surprise if the Giants don’t select Kotsay, a longtime major league outfielder who played in Oakland (2004-07) when Zaidi was in its front office. Kotsay, like the vast majority of candidates on the Giants’ radar, has never managed in the majors.
While Kotsay may be the front-runner for the Giants, the club’s still keeping its options open. The Giants have told a pair of their assistants, bench coach Hensley Meulens and third base coach Ron Wotus, that they remain under consideration to take over for Bochy, according to Baggarly. They’re the only in-house candidates so far for San Francisco, which Baggarly reports is not close to making a hire.
MLBTR Poll: Didi Gregorius & The Qualifying Offer
Now that the Yankees’ season is over, their front office is left to ponder the futures of many of the club’s players, including shortstop Didi Gregorius. While Gregorius has largely been an above-average to excellent contributor since the Yankees acquired him entering 2015, the two sides’ five-year partnership may be on the verge of ending. Gregorius is weeks from a trip to free agency, where he’s easily slated to be the highest-upside shortstop available. The question, if Gregorius does reach the open market, is whether he’ll come with a qualifying offer attached.
The 29-year-old Gregorius would’ve been a slam dunk for a $17.8MM QO were he coming off a similar season to the ones he posted from 2017-18. Gregorius was a 4.0-fWAR player in each of those years, though he underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow after the latter of those campaigns. As a result, Gregorius didn’t debut this year until June 7. When Gregorius returned, he wasn’t the same player the Yankees grew accustomed to seeing in the previous two seasons. He wound up playing just about half the season (82 games) and slashing a mediocre .238/.276/.441 in 344 plate appearances. The power outburst Gregorius enjoyed from 2017-18 remained intact, evidenced by his 16 home runs and his .204 ISO, yet he still only managed an 84 wRC+ (he checked in at 122 just a year ago).
In light of his downtick in production this season, it’s fair to wonder whether the Yankees will qualify Gregorius and risk paying him a hefty sum for 2020. They did bring Gregorius back for a pricey $11.75MM in the wake of his TJ surgery last year, but as mentioned, he was coming off a much stronger season at the time. Now, it’s easy to imagine Gregorius accepting a much more expensive QO and trying for a bounce-back year in New York. Doing so would take a significant chunk out of the luxury tax-minded Yankees’ spending room for a position to which the club arguably doesn’t need to allocate a ton of financial resources. The Yankees could let Gregorius walk, plug Gleyber Torres in at short and use DJ LeMahieu at second. Alternatively, if the Yankees really want to go for a bold strike after yet another season without a World Series title, they could trade for someone like Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, keep Torres at second and continue to move the versatile LeMahieu around the infield.
Regardless of whether Lindor’s a realistic trade target for the Yankees, what should they do with Gregorius in the next couple weeks? Is he worth taking a chance on via QO, or should general manager Brian Cashman let him hit the market unfettered?
(Poll link for app users)
Should the Yankees qualify Gregorius?
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Yes 52% (5,578)
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No 48% (5,101)
Total votes: 10,679
MLBTR Chat Transcript: 10/21/19
Click here to read a transcript of tonight’s live chat with MLBTR’s Connor Byrne.
MLBTR Poll: CC Sabathia’s Hall Of Fame Case
If his longstanding plan to retire at season’s end holds up, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has thrown the last pitch of his illustrious career. The 39-year-old suffered a shoulder injury during a relief appearance in New York’s Game 4 loss to Houston on Thursday, forcing the Yankees to pull him from their ALCS roster. That means even if the Yankees manage to overcome what’s now a 3-2 deficit against the mighty Astros to advance to the World Series, Sabathia won’t be eligible to participate in the Fall Classic.
Sabathia’s left to root for the Yankees to win it all without his help, though he told reporters it’s “kind of fitting” he’s going out this way. “I threw until I couldn’t anymore,” said Sabathia, whose left arm has been through the wringer since he debuted with the Indians back in 2001.
Between the regular season and the playoffs, Sabathia has amassed 3,707 2/3 innings. Also a former Brewer, whom he all but dragged to the playoffs in 2008 after they acquired him from the Indians, Sabathia has eclipsed 200 frames in eight different regular seasons. He fired 241 (the second-highest mark of his career) in 2007, his lone Cy Young-winning campaign.
Various injuries robbed Sabathia of the chance for another workhorse-type season in 2019, as he racked up a career-low 107 1/3 innings during his uncharacteristically ineffective swan song. Sabathia only pitched to a 4.95 ERA/5.66 FIP, but a subpar final season hardly overshadows the rest of a brilliant run in the majors. Owner of a lifetime 3.74 ERA/3.78 FIP, Sabathia’s going out as one of the premier starters in recent memory, giving him a legitimate chance for enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
The question now is whether Sabathia should end up in Cooperstown, where he could earn a coveted plaque as early as 2025. As someone who ranks 16th all-time in strikeouts (3,093), 37th in pitcher fWAR (66.5), 48th in wins (251), 49th in pitcher bWAR (62.5) and 64th in regular-season innings (3,577 1/3), the credentials for strong consideration exist. He’s also a six-time All-Star, a one-time World Series champion (2009, when he was integral in the Yankees’ most recent title run) and, if it matters for his HOF odds, a revered teammate and leader. Whether all of that makes him a Hall of Famer is up for debate. What do you think?
(Poll link for app users)
CC Sabathia: Hall of Famer?
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Yes 70% (9,991)
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No 30% (4,206)
Total votes: 14,197
Latest On Marcell Ozuna, Cardinals
Pending free-agent left fielder Marcell Ozuna has made it known he’d prefer to re-sign with the Cardinals, but it doesn’t look likely with free agency approaching. The Cardinals won’t be making an effort to re-up Ozuna to a long-term contract before the market opens in a couple weeks, Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription link). They are, however, likely to issue Ozuna a $17.8MM qualifying offer, according to Saxon.
[RELATED – FA Outlook: Marcell Ozuna]
If the Cardinals do hit Ozuna with a QO and he accepts, they’ll keep him for 2020. Otherwise, rejecting would enable Ozuna to head to free agency as arguably the most appealing corner outfielder available in a class that will also include Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig, among others. In a best-case scenario for Ozuna, St. Louis will pass on doling out the QO, as saddling him with one would force another team to give up draft-pick compensation in signing him. As we’ve seen in recent offseasons, clubs generally aren’t enthusiastic about losing draft capital while simultaneously having to fork over a sizable contract.
In the event Ozuna does get to free agency with a QO attached, he’ll still have a case for one of the offseason’s top paydays. Set to turn 29 next month, Ozuna’s coming off his fifth season with at least 2.6 fWAR since he debuted with the Marlins in 2013. Ozuna continued a trend of above-average (but not spectacular) offensive production in 2019, as he slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. If we’re to believe Statcast, there may be more in the tank – Ozuna’s expected weighted on-base average (.379) far outpaced his real wOBA (.340) and ranked in the majors’ 91st percentile. He was also near the apex of the league in average exit velocity (91.8 mph; 93rd percentile) and hard-hit percentage (49.2; 96th percentile), among other Statcast metrics.
While Ozuna hasn’t been able to replicate the star-caliber 2017 he enjoyed with the Marlins during his two years as a Cardinal, his output would still be a challenge for the Redbirds to replace. St. Louis does have several other outfielders in the mix, though, and it’s not a guarantee the club will aggressively pursue outside help in the wake of an Ozuna exit. With Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Lane Thomas, Yairo Munoz, Randy Arozarena and high-end prospect Dylan Carlson among options under control for next season, the Cardinals “have no intention of adding to the outfield glut” this winter, Saxon writes.