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Phillies Sign Jordan Romano

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The Phillies finalized a one-year contract with reliever Jordan Romano, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed at the Winter Meetings. The longtime Blue Jays righty is reportedly guaranteed $8.5MM and would receive another $500K if he pitches 60 innings next season. Romano is represented by VC Sports Group.

The Phils are making a bet on a bounceback. Romano, 32 in February, just finished a frustrating and injury-marred season with the Blue Jays but was their closer for three years prior to that. The righty saved 95 games for the Jays from 2021 to 2023, tossing 186 innings with a 2.37 earned run average. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at a 9.2% clip and getting grounders on 42.3% of balls in play.

But 2024 was mostly a lost season for him. He started the season on the injured list due to some right elbow inflammation and never seemed to be fully healthy. He went on and off the IL throughout the year, making just 15 appearances with a 6.59 ERA. His 21% strikeout rate in that small sample was not only below his previous work but also below league average.

He underwent arthroscopic surgery on the elbow in July and was given an estimated six-week shutdown time frame. The Jays were hoping to get Romano back on the mound before the season was up but that didn’t come to pass. His last major league appearance was May 29.

The Jays could have retained Romano for one more season via arbitration. Salaries almost never go down via the arb system, so MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the righty for the same $7.75MM salary he made in 2024. The Jays apparently weren’t willing to fork over that kind of cash for the chance to find out if Romano could get over his lost season, as he was not tendered a contract for 2025. Last week, general manager Ross Atkins said that he expected Romano to be healthy and hoped to re-sign him, but presumably at a lower price point. Instead, Romano will get a fresh start with a new organization and get a slight pay bump.

The Philadelphia bullpen has been shuffled quite a bit in recent months. They traded away Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto at the trade deadline, then lost Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez to free agency at season’s end. They still have some good arms back there, including Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm, but they’ve naturally been looking for bullpen upgrades this winter.

Opting for Romano also makes sense for financial reasons. The Phils have spent a lot of money on their roster in recent years, both via free agency and extensions of incumbent players. That has led to them paying the competitive balance tax three years in a row now. Going into 2025, they were projected to have a high payroll and CBT number yet again, before even making any offseason moves.

That has seemingly led to a shift in approach this winter. While they have been connected to many of the top available free agents in recent offseasons, they seemingly didn’t get involved in the Juan Soto frenzy and there have been many rumors about them trying to trade players like Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and others.

They reportedly had some interest in re-signing Hoffman and Estévez but both will likely be signing deals far larger than this pact for Romano. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hoffman for a four-year, $44MM deal. That was before the clubs reportedly expressed interest in him as a starter, which could potentially increase his earning power. Estévez was projected for a more modest $27MM guarantee over three years, but still a notable commitment.

By going for Romano, the Phils are hoping that they are making a big upgrade to their bullpen but at a relatively low cost since they are buying low. There is some risk there, as relievers are generally volatile in general and Romano is coming off an injury-marred season, but it’s a logical gamble to take. If things go especially well, it’s possible the Phils could extend a qualifying offer to Romano at the end of next year. Qualifying offers for relievers are rare, but guys like Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Will Smith have received them in recent years.

Now factoring in Romano, RosterResource projects the Phillies for a $271MM payroll. That would be a franchise record by a significant margin, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts having them in the $242-244MM range in recent years but never higher than that. RR projects the CBT number at $289MM for next year. That’s not only beyond the $241MM base threshold but also the second and third tiers of $261MM and $281MM, respectively. As a third-time CBT payor, the Phils will be looking at a 50% base tax next year as well as surcharges of 12%, 45% and 60% for spending beyond the higher tiers. That means they are already slated for a 95% tax rate on any additional spending right now and a 110% rate if they go beyond $301MM, though successfully trading away a notable contract could drop them lower. If they remain above the third line of $281MM, they would also see their top pick in the 2026 draft dropped back ten spots. All of these could be significant factors as the club looks to make further upgrades in the rest of the offseason.

For the Jays, remaking the bullpen will also be a big storyline in the coming weeks and months. Their relief group had a collective ERA of 4.82 in 2024, ahead of just the Rockies and a key factor in their disappointing season. Getting better results out of the bullpen will be necessary for a turnaround but they will have to do so with a new closer. Chad Green racked up 17 saves in 2024 while Romano was mostly out of action and could be the favorite for the job among guys currently on the roster, but they could perhaps find an external addition and bump green into a setup role.

Jim Salisbury first reported the Phillies had interest in Romano. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the sides had reached an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first correctly reported the terms.

No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez

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Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

Red Sox Interested In Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox have strong interest in free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X link). The Jays and Yankees have been connected to Santander in previous rumors.

The fit is logical as all three clubs just came up short in their pursuit of Juan Soto. This winter’s free agent outfield market featured Soto at the top, clearly on a tier by himself, well above the rest. The level below featured a cluster of guys including Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto and others. O’Neill and Conforto are also off the board now, in addition to Soto, so it’s natural that these clubs would pivot to the guys still available.

Santander, 30, doesn’t have Soto’s youth or plate discipline but there’s no doubting the power. He has hit at least 28 home runs in each of the past three seasons, including 44 in the most recent campaign, leading to 105 overall for the 2022-24 seasons. His 8.5% walk rate in that time was right around league average, with his 20.5% strikeout rate slightly better than par. His .244/.317/.478 batting line for that stretch led to a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average.

Given that healthy production, it’s unsurprising that he is generating plenty of interest. What also works in his favor is that he is a switch-hitter without strong platoon splits. As a righty against lefties, he hit .239/.309/.513 in 2024 for a 132 wRC+. For the inverse split, he hit .225/.306/.488 for a 123 wRC+. For his career, he has a 111 wRC+ against lefties and 116 against righties.

That balanced attack means he should be able to fit into the plans of any club with an outfield need, or perhaps an opening at designated hitter. His outfield defense has been subpar in his career, with grades of -3 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average. He has gotten brief looks at first base recently, with 72 innings at that spot in 2023 and one more in 2024.

Despite the defensive concerns, Santander’s power bat is one of the best available. Perhaps some club would be willing to live with the subpar defense, or maybe try to slot Santander in at first base or designated hitter down the road. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Santander could earn a guarantee of $80MM over four years.

For the Sox, they would likely be looking at Santander as an outfielder. Their corner infield and designated hitter mix is already crowded, with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a primary option for designated hitter. There have been some rumors that the Sox would like to sign a third baseman and move Devers over to the other side of the diamond, which would likely require Casas or Yoshida to be moved.

In the outfield, the Sox have some good options but they could fit Santander into the mix. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu project to be in two spots, but both are left-handed hitters with notable platoon splits. The lineup is already fairly left-leaning as Devers, Casas and Yoshida all hit from that side as well. The right-handed Rob Refsnyder can help out a bit but having Santander as an everyday option would help stabilize the whole group.

Ceddanne Rafaela could be involved in the outfield group as well but he’s a glove-first option who can also play the infield. Roman Anthony is one of the top prospects in the sport but he has not yet turned 21 years old and only has 35 games of Triple-A experience thus far. He is also a left-handed hitter, so he’ll exacerbate the club’s slant in that direction even if he earns his way into the big league plans.

The Sox have been looking to be aggressive this winter with the rotation being a primary focus but adding Santander or another big bat to the lineup would obviously help as well. They are reportedly even willing to pay the luxury tax under the right circumstances. RosterResource currently projects the club’s tax number at $181MM, which is $60MM below next year’s base threshold of $241MM. That should give them enough wiggle room to sign Santander or another outfielder as well as a notable starting pitcher, if they so choose. The Sox have been connected to various rotation options, including Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

The Jays and Yankees have been connected to just about every big-name free agent, though both clubs have been focused on Soto until now. The coming days should see them pivot and gauge the market on guys like Fried, Burnes, Santander, Hernández, Alex Bregman and others, as those guys have each been connected to both the Yankees and Jays in rumors this offseason.

The loss of Soto obviously leaves a huge hole in the Yankee outfield, so they will surely be considering various options to bolster the group alongside Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Jasson Domínguez. That could include the aforementioned free agents but the Yanks have reportedly contacted the Cubs about a Cody Bellinger trade.

The Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as their two most established outfielders, though Varsho is recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day. They have Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase and other guys on the roster but those guys are all fairly limited in terms of their major league experience.

Santander rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles at season’s end, so that club will receive draft pick compensation if he ultimately signs elsewhere. That feels fairly inevitable now that they have an agreement with O’Neill, effectively replacing Santander in the club’s outfield mix. If Santander signs a contract worth more than $50MM, the O’s will get a pick after the first round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to penalties, depending on whether they are revenue sharing recipients or paid the competitive balance tax in 2024.

Angels, Dakota Hudson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels and right-hander Dakota Hudson have agreed to a minor league deal, per Aram Leighton of Just Baseball (X link). The righty will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training as well.

Hudson, 30, is coming off a rough season. He signed a one-year deal with the Rockies with a $1.5MM guarantee but wasn’t able to give the club much in return for that investment. He made 18 starts and threw 89 innings but allowed 6.17 earned runs per nine. He struck out just 12.1% of batters faced, giving out walks at a higher rate of 12.4%. His 52.3% ground ball rate was typically strong for him but it wasn’t enough for him to cling to a job even in the injury-marred Colorado rotation.

In July, Hudson was designated for assignment and sent through waivers unclaimed. He was later added back to the roster in August but quickly wound up on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and finished the season there. He was outrighted off the roster again in October and elected free agency.

Once upon a time, Hudson seemed like a solid rotation option for the Cardinals. Over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he tossed 213 2/3 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 18.4% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 56.9% ground ball rate. But Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2021 season and he hasn’t been able to bounce back since. His 221 innings in the 2022-23 seasons resulted in a 4.64 ERA with his strikeout rate falling to 12.9%. His 52.5% ground ball in that time was still above league average but a drop from his own previous track record.

For the Angels, rotation depth has been an ongoing issue for years. 2024 was no exception, as the club’s starters posted a collective 4.97 ERA, which was better than only the Marlins and Rockies. They subtracted from their group by sending Griffin Canning to Atlanta in the Jorge Soler deal. Patrick Sandoval was also non-tendered after requiring elbow surgery in the summer.

This offseason, they have signed Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks, adding to a group that also includes José Soriano and Tyler Anderson. The roster also features Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Jack Kochanowicz and others but Hudson will give them a bit of non-roster depth and try to get back on track after a few challenging years.

Roki Sasaki Officially Posted For MLB Clubs

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Right-hander Roki Sasaki has been officially posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (X link) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). That opens a 45-day window for Sasaki and his representatives to talk to MLB clubs, meaning he will need to have a deal in place by January 23 or else he will return to the Marines.

Since Sasaki is under 25 years old, having just turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB rules. As such, he must be signed as part of the international bonus pool system. The 2024 international signing period ends on December 15 and the 2025 period starts on January 15. All reporting has suggested that Sasaki will wait to sign until the new period starts up and each club gets a fresh pool of spending money, so he seems destined to sign somewhere between January 15 and 23rd, though the talks can now officially begin.

It seems to be a lock that Sasaki will be coming to the majors next year, the only question is who he will play for. Money won’t be the primary factor, as each club will be able to offer a roughly similar signing bonus. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, each club has a bonus pool in the $5-8MM range. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%.

If money were Sasaki’s motivation, he would have waited another two years to make this move. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted after his 25th birthday and was able to secure a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers, but Sasaki has insisted on making the move now because he presumably just wants to test his mettle at the world’s top level as soon as possible.

He also surely knows that he will eventually be rewarded as long as he keeps pitching well. Shohei Ohtani also came to the majors as an amateur and had to settle for a small bonus with the Angels, but he flourished and eventually got his big paycheck from the Dodgers once he accrued six years of big league service time.

Given those parameters, Sasaki will likely be deciding his new club based on other factors. It has been suggested by some observers that the Dodgers are a favorite, given that the franchise has had success in general but also especially with pitchers. It’s also possible that the presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto might be nice for Sasaki as he makes the move to a new country and new culture. Some have also suggested the Padres as a strong contender since Sasaki reportedly has a strong relationship with Yu Darvish and might prefer to be in a market away from Ohtani and Yamamoto, giving him a greater chance to step into a spotlight and parlay that into sponsorships opportunities while his direct earning power is relatively low. He may have other preferences based on geography or a team’s competitive outlook, though those can only be guessed.

No club can be officially ruled out, however, given the cheap sticker price and Sasaki’s quality as a pitcher. He has allowed only 2.10 earned runs per nine innings over his NPB career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced while only giving out walks 5.7% of the time. There are some slight workload concerns since Sasaki has had some injuries and never thrown 130 innings in a season, but any club would still love to take a chance on him for the small price of a few million dollars.

Whoever ultimately lands Sasaki, it could lead to domino effects that impact other clubs. MLB teams generally commit their bonus pools years in advance via verbal agreements. Players in countries like the Dominican Republic and Venezuela aren’t allowed to sign until they are 16 years old but they often have handshake deals worked out with clubs years in advance. Whichever club agrees to sign Sasaki, even for a bonus of just a few million, might have to renege on a few of those verbal agreements. That would be an awful situation for those players but could lead to them suddenly becoming available for other clubs. That could create further domino effects if some clubs then back out of their own verbal agreements in order to pivot to the newly available players.

At Baseball America, Badler recently took a look at the chaos that could ensue as the Sasaki situation plays out. That will have to wait, as it likely won’t be known for over a month which team Sasaki will choose.

Dodgers, Teoscar Hernández Reportedly Facing Gap In Negotiations

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The Dodgers and outfielder Teoscar Hernández have interest in a reunion after a successful season together but no deal has come together yet. Alden González of ESPN reports that the two sides have been negotiating for weeks but have been “unable to bridge the gap.”

Hernández, now 32, was a free agent a year ago on the heels of a down season. After hitting .283/.333/.519 with the Blue Jays over the 2020-22 seasons for a 132 wRC+, he was traded to the Mariners prior to the 2023 season and went on to hit .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. Seattle let him hit the open market without a qualifying offer and Hernández ended up lingering unsigned into January. He did receive a two-year, $28MM offer from the Red Sox but decided to bet on himself by signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers which paid him $23.5MM, though with deferrals.

The move worked out well for both sides. Hernández put up a line of .272/.339/.501 and a 134 wRC+ this year, back on his previous pace, making his lone season in Seattle look like a blip. He also hit well in 16 postseason games as the Dodgers went on to win the World Series. While celebrating that title, he openly expressed his desire to return to the Dodgers.

Last month, Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote that Hernández could be one of the first big names to sign this winter, but that hasn’t come to pass. Given that Hernández had a frustrating stint in free agency last time, it would make sense for him to desire a quick resolution this time around. But given his stronger platform year, he would naturally want fair market value and wasn’t just going to accept any deal put in front of him.

The path back to Los Angeles may have become a little foggier recently. The Dodgers just signed Michael Conforto yesterday, adding another corner outfielder to the roster. The club reportedly still has interest in Hernández even with Conforto in the mix but it may decrease their urgency. Their current outfield projection would likely see Conforto in one corner, Tommy Edman in center and Andy Pages in another corner, with James Outman around as depth and prospect Dalton Rushing lurking in Triple-A. Edman can also play the middle infield but the Dodgers are seemingly set there with Mookie Betts, Miguel Rojas and Gavin Lux. Using the designated hitter spot isn’t an option with Shohei Ohtani there nearly every day.

Conforto, Outman and Rushing are all lefties, so perhaps there’s room for Hernández in a platoon role, but he’s surely looking for more than that. After his strong bounceback season in 2024, MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year, $60MM deal.

The gap between the Dodgers and Hernández could perhaps open the door for other suitors to come in. The Juan Soto frenzy just came to an end, with the Mets ending up in the winner’s circle. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays were reportedly the finalists, so those clubs could now look to alternatives and all three have been connected to Hernández. The free agent outfield market also still features Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Max Kepler and others, though Soto, Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board in recent days. The trade market could feature Cody Bellinger, Lane Thomas, Wilyer Abreu and others.

If Hernández ends up elsewhere, the Dodgers will receive compensation since he rejected a qualifying offer from them. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax last year, they would only receive modest compensation, a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. The signing team would be subject to penalties, though the exact nature of the forfeitures would depend if that club paid the competitive balance tax in 2024 or is a revenue sharing recipient.

Guardians To Re-Sign Shane Bieber

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Right-hander Shane Bieber is coming back to the Guardians. He and the club have reportedly agreed to a deal with a $10MM salary in 2025, with a $16MM player option for 2026 that comes with a $4MM buyout. That makes it a $26MM guarantee over two years but Bieber can potentially return to free agency after banking $14MM in year one. He reportedly turned down more money with other clubs in order to return to Cleveland. The righty is represented by Rosenhaus Sports Representation.

Bieber, 30 in May, returns to the only organization he’s ever known. The contract is a reflection of his current status, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April, meaning he will miss at least part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the chance to return to the mound in 2025 and establish his health. If his performance can return anywhere near his previously elite levels, he can decide to return to the open market. Though if he hits any kind of setback or doesn’t quite bounce back immediately, he can bank the extra $12MM and stick around another year.

Whether he can indeed get back in form is the big question. Bieber’s ceiling is well established, as he won the American League Cy Young award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 starts that year with a 1.63 earned run average. He struck out 41.1% of batters faced, walked 7.1% of opponents and got grounders at a 48.4% rate.

But things have mostly gone downhill since then, even before the surgery. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t exactly unexpected as maintaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been almost impossible. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate were both off of his previous season but still strong numbers. He missed about three months due to a right shoulder subscapularis strain.

In 2022, he stayed healthy enough to make 31 starts and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, but with more concerning signs elsewhere. He averaged just 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that year, after mostly being in the 93-94 range in prior years. His strikeout rate also dipped to 25%, still a bit above league average but a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time due to right elbow inflammation, which seems in hindsight like a precursor to his surgery. He did make 21 starts on the year but with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate and similar velocity to the year prior.

Going into 2024, his name was in plenty of trade rumors. The Guardians often trade players as their salary grows and they get closer to free agency, doing so with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber somewhat recently. In hindsight, perhaps the Guards should have pulled the trigger on a deal, but maybe they didn’t receive substantial offers on the heels of all the red flags in 2022 and 2023.

For a brief moment, hanging onto Bieber seemed like a brilliant move. He made two starts at the beginning of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in each of them and recording 20 strikeouts in those 12 innings. His velocity came back slightly, with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first start of the year. But it dipped to 91.6 mph in the second start and the news of his surgery dropped before he could make a third.

Now he’ll be looking to come back from the lengthy Tommy John recovery process, as well as the concerning seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a long time since Bieber had his best stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was obviously outside of his control but all but one season since then has seen him miss significant time. In the one season where he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.

All that makes this an interesting gamble for the Guardians, as this is a fairly notable expenditure for them. They don’t generally spend much in free agency, particularly on the pitching side. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, in the last 15 years, this is the first time they’ve given a pitcher more than $7MM. That’s partially a testament to their ability to develop their own pitching but they’ve also only given four position players a larger guarantee than this in that time.

Per RosterResource, the Guards are now projected for a payroll of $107MM next year, already more than what they spent in 2024. They could perhaps drop that by trading someone like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas but this Bieber deal is a decent chunk of the budget either way.

It’s a risky proposition for those parameters. Given that recovery from Tommy John surgery normally takes 14 months or longer, the Guards might only get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any kind, it could be less than that. Even if he is back on a big league mound by June, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be in good form.

The upside play is that Bieber comes back to something resembling an ace. The Guards install him into their second half rotation and then, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that point, he would decline his player option and they could issue him a qualifying offer, which will probably be in the $22MM range. Assuming he declines that and goes out looking for a major deal, they would recoup draft pick compensation.

On the other end of the spectrum are the scenarios where Bieber isn’t quite fully healthy or simply isn’t as good as he was before, in which case he sticks around for another year at an even higher salary than in 2025.

It’s a risk the Guardians are willing to take, which is perhaps due to the respect that the organization has for him, but it’s also perhaps a reflection of the current rotation situation. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, but the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest part of the roster. They struggled to find viable solutions there for much of the year, finding success on the backs of a decent offense and elite bullpen.

Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen either struggled or were injured or both. Tanner Bibee was the club’s only starter who has consistently healthy and performing well all year long. Matthew Boyd was an excellent midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, but he became a free agent at season’s end and has a deal in place with the Cubs.

Next year’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland currently consists of Bibee and many question marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are still in the mix but coming off those aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Lively is on the roster, as are fairly unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards probably have more to do in upgrading that group but they will hope that Bieber can charge in like a proverbial white knight at some point in the middle of 2025 to save the day.

The aforementioned Boyd gives a rough template of what Bieber and the Guards will be hoping for next year. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight starts down the stretch and then had three more good outings in the postseason. That was enough to get him a two-year, $29MM deal, but Bieber has a path to earning far more than that. Boyd is going into his age-34 season whereas Bieber will be going into his age-31 campaign in 2026. Boyd’s injury track record is also more extensive than Bieber’s and Bieber has the more impressive early career numbers.

As such, with a strong finish in 2025, Bieber could position himself to earn far more than Boyd just did, joining 2025-26 free agent starters such as Dylan Cease,  Zach Eflin, Zac Gallen, Michael King, Seth Lugo, and Framber Valdez. Though that’s just one of many potential scenarios in front of him and the Guardians in the year to come.

Buster Olney of ESPN (X link) first reported that the two sides were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided (X link) first relayed that it was a one-year deal plus a player option. Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link) first had the dollar figures. Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link) first relayed that Bieber had larger offers elsewhere.

Mariners Notes: Bellinger, Hoerner, Payroll

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The Mariners have been connected to a couple of Cubs recently, with recent rumors that they had discussed both infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times took a look at those talks and some other Mariner topics ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.

Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.

They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.

Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.

However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.

Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.

Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.

Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.

Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.

As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.

He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.

He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.

In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.

Orioles Outright Thaddeus Ward

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The Orioles announced that right-hander Thaddeus Ward has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Norfolk. There was no previous reporting that he had been removed from the 40-man roster, so this move drops their count to 37.

Ward, 28 in January, has never pitched for the Orioles. He was just claimed off waivers from the Nationals at the start of November but has now been bumped from his roster spot just over a month later.

Once upon a time, he was a notable prospect in the Red Sox’ system but he was left unprotected in the 2022 Rule 5 draft. The Nats grabbed him and kept him on the roster for the entire 2023 season. He didn’t pitch especially well, posting a 6.37 earned run average in his 26 relief appearances, but the Nationals likely didn’t care much. They were rebuilding that year and were presumably happy to obtain Ward’s full rights, even if it meant suffering through that subpar performance.

With his Rule 5 restrictions gone in 2024, the Nats were able to send him to the minors, but the numbers were again uninspiring. He made 28 Triple-A starts this year with a 5.64 ERA. His 19.3% strikeout rate and 17% walk rate were both a few ticks away from average. As mentioned, they put him on waivers, which is when Baltimore grabbed him.

The O’s are surely hoping to get Ward back to the form he showed prior to his Rule 5 selection. Way back in 2019, he threw 126 1/3 innings across 25 minor league starts, split between Single-A and High-A. He had a 2.14 ERA that year, striking out 29.9% of batters while giving out walks at a 10.9% clip. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 and then Ward didn’t pitch much in 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound in 2022 and able to toss 51 1/3 innings with a 2.28 ERA, mostly in Double-A.

That was enough for the Nats to take a shot on him but, as mentioned, the past two years with that club didn’t go especially well. The O’s clearly have some belief in him, as they’ve grabbed him off waivers and now bumped him into a non-roster depth role. If he can get back on track and earn his way back onto the roster, he still has two option years and exactly one year of service time.

Cubs To Hire Jose Javier As First Base Coach

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The Cubs are going to be adding Jose Javier to their coaching staff, per a report from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. He will take over as first base coach, replacing Mike Napoli, who was let go at the end of the 2024 season.

Javier, 32, has spent most of his adult life in the Yankees’ system. As a player, he was in their minor leagues from 2010 to 2015 but never reached higher than the Single-A level. When his playing days ended, he moved into coaching, sticking with the Yankees and working in their minor league system.

Cubs manager Craig Counsell has been overhauling his coaching staff for next year. Early in October, the club parted ways with Napoli, assistant hitting coach Jim Adduci and bullpen coach Darren Holmes, then also parted with third base coach Willie Harris a few days later. All but Holmes were with the Cubs prior to Counsell being hired going into the 2024 season. Assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos was later poached by the Marlins to be their pitching coach.

Casey Jacobson was promoted to replace Moskos. Quintin Berry is reportedly taking over at third for the Cubs and now Javier will take up a spot across the diamond from him. The club hasn’t yet announced its full coaching staff and it hasn’t been publicly reported who will take the remaining vacancies.

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