Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami is going to be posted by the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. It has long been expected that this would be the case, as it was reported three years ago that the plan was for Murakami to make the MLB move after 2025, but this report confirms that Murakami will be a key free agent to watch this winter.

The timing of the posting is not a coincidence. Under major league baseball’s international free agency rules, a player is considered an “amateur” if he is under the age of 25. These “amateur” players are subject to the international bonus pool system, wherein teams are hard-capped by annual budgets of roughly $4MM to $9MM. This was the case when Roki Sasaki was posted prior to his age-23 season. He eventually signed with the Dodgers and received a $6.5MM signing bonus, far less than he would have received with more open bidding. He is also treated like a minor leaguer, in that he will be making around the league minimum until he qualifies for arbitration and will be under club control until he accrues six years of big league service time.

Murakami won’t be in the same situation as Sasaki. He turned 25 in February will therefore be considered a professional under the current rules. Once he is officially posted, he will be free to negotiate with all 30 clubs for a period of 45 days and will have no restrictions on the kinds of offers he can receive. This situation is more analogous to that of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who also signed with the Dodgers. His 12-year, $325MM deal was in a far different stratosphere compared to Sasaki.

Sasaki was eager enough to come to Major League Baseball that he came young, despite the clearly lesser earning power with that path. Murakami has understandably waited until after his 25th birthday and should be in line for a nice payday.

What remains to be seen is exactly how strong his market will be. In his NPB career, he has shown massive power potential but also real strikeout concerns. He has generally been good for 30 to 40 homers per year, though he had a massive 56-homer season in 2022. This year, he missed a large chunk of the season due to an oblique injury and only got into 56 games, but he managed to launch 22 balls over the fence in that small sample.

He was also punched out 64 times in 224 plate appearances this year, a rate of 28.6%. He had that down to 20.6% during his amazing 2022 season but he’s been above 28% for three straight years now. Overall, he has hit .270/.394/.557 in his NPB career. Since MLB pitching features greater velocity and generally higher quality than NPB pitching, it’s possible his strikeout rate would increase with the move. For reference, the MLB average was 22.2% this year and there were only nine qualified hitters above 28%.

Murakami has primarily been a third baseman during his time with the Swallows. He has also dabbled at first base and even got a brief look in left field this year. Scouting reports have generally pegged him as a middling fielder who will likely end up at first base in the long run.

That will put more pressure on his bat but some clubs may be more comfortable with him playing third base for a few years. Teams will also have varying opinions about how he will be able to adapt to MLB pitching.

For players coming over from Japan, there have been all sorts of different results. As mentioned, Yamamoto had so much strong interest that he was able to secure a 12-year pact with opt-outs. Shota Imanaga got a creative four-year guarantee with a multi-year club option and player option structure after two seasons. Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida got straight five-year deals worth $85MM and $90MM respectively. Both of those hitters had better NPB batting averages than Murakami but without the same power ceiling.

Since the Dodgers have landed many Japanese stars, many fans expect that to be the outcome here. However, it’s not a perfect roster fit. The Dodgers have Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani in the designated hitter spot. They have an affordable $10MM club option to keep Max Muncy around as their third baseman next year. Signing Murakami can’t be totally ruled out but it may require them to move on from Muncy, who has been a cornerstone of the club for years and is still putting up good numbers, or perhaps try Murakami as an outfielder. Even if Muncy’s option is picked up, he’s slated for free agency after 2026, with Freeman only signed through 2027, so the long-term fit is better than in the short term.

The Red Sox would be a cleaner fit now, since Alex Bregman is likely to opt out of his deal and the club has questions at first base. The Mets have first base open with Pete Alonso set to opt out and they don’t have a clear answer at third base either. The Yankees could put him at first base, with Paul Goldschmidt becoming a free agent and Ben Rice capable of catching. The Cubs have Matt Shaw at third but almost signed Bregman last winter, so perhaps they are still willing to go after an external option there. The Tigers currently have Zach McKinstry at third but he’s capable of playing elsewhere. The Angels don’t have a long-term third base solution due to the ongoing injuries of Anthony Rendon. The Mariners are about to lose Eugenio Suárez to free agency. The Reds don’t have a definite answer at first base.

Over time, his market will become more clear. Whichever club signs him will also owe a posting fee to the Swallows. The posting fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending above $50MM.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images