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NL Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Mets, Arenado, Hernandez

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A fourth guaranteed year has been said to be the lynchpin in any potential deal for third baseman Josh Donaldson this winter, leaving interested teams in a precarious spot as they play chicken with the veteran’s representatives. The Braves, in particular, could be in something of a no-mans-land if they miss out on Donaldson, as they would lose their incumbent starter and potentially see a league rival (Nationals, Dodgers) strengthen their lineup at the same time. As David O’Brien of The Athletic sees it, the team’s two recourses in the event of a Donaldson departure may be the exploration of trades for either Kris Bryant of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Rockies—and neither of those options is entirely realistic in the writer’s eyes. For Bryant, his ongoing grievance with the Cubs adds a fair bit of uncertainty for any interested trade partner. While the Cubs are, as O’Brien puts it, “widely expected” to win that grievance hearing and maintain two years of control on Bryant, it’s not impossible that the tide could swing in Bryant’s favor and leave him with just one year left.

When it comes to Arenado, O’Brien seems merely skeptical that Atlanta would be willing to swallow a contract of that magnitude, considering that the $35MM annual salaries in Arenado’s deal would more than double the highest salary that Braves star Ronald Acuna will make in the final years of the eight-year, $100MM extension he signed in April. Then again, Donaldson has reportedly given the Braves the right of last refusal on any potential deal, so it may well be that Atlanta ends up viewing a four-year Donaldson deal as the most reasonable course of action. Given that Washington and Minnesota have reportedly made four-year offers already, this may be a case of a player waiting for his preferred team to blink.

More from around the NL…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post sees no such obstacle standing in the way of an Arenado-Mets pairing. As Sherman notes, the team’s ability to save as much as $23.5MM in the Yoenis Cespedes adjustment may give them some crucial breathing room to entertain a truly franchise-altering blockbuster. Additionally, the club may be well served to counter the Yankees Gerrit Cole addition with a headline-grabbing move of their own, and Steve Cohen’s continued negotiations with the Sterling partners to become the majority owner of the Mets may offer them some added financial backbone in the near future. Still, a deal for Arenado would realistically cost the team not just payroll space, but also a talented young player of the Jeff McNeil variety—not exactly an easy price to pay in its own right.
  • Nationals organizational outfielder Yadiel Hernandez will be extended an invite to big league Spring Training in recognition of his excellent 2019 season in Triple-A, reports Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post. Dougherty adds that Hernandez will get at least a “small look” in camp, after a ’19 campaign in which the 32-year-old hit .323/.406/.604 with 33 home runs. It’s not exactly common to see 32-year-old rookies, but there does come a point where, juiced ball caveats aside, a player’s performance demands at least a trial run at the highest level. Plus, Hernandez did come over with a fair amount of recognition as an international signing out of Cuba in advance of the 2017 season. As things stand now, the champs will enter 2020 with Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Stevenson as bench outfielders.

Quick Hits: Angels, Ohtani, Rojas, Revenue, Lefties

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A few brief words of update on the Angels. Billy Eppler said during a press conference call that the team is considering various options for Shohei Ohtani this season, including “delaying him a little bit”, relays Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register (link). We’ve already heard that the club plans to keep him on an NPB-esque pitching schedule this season as he continues to work back from Tommy John surgery, but it’s uncertain if “delay” in this case means he’ll be held out of action late into Spring Training, or further.

Meanwhile, Maria Torres of the LA Times reports, from that same call, that Eppler acknowledged that the team “can add” to its already “strong” group of pitchers (link). That’s not a definitive statement, and the club’s opportunities to add might be dwindling now that one more arm is off the open market as of Saturday evening. Torres also reports that 26-year-old prospect Jose Rojas will receive an invite to big league camp this spring after a Triple-A season in which he hit .293/.362/.577 with 31 home runs.

More from around the game…

  • Declining attendance be damned—MLB’s revenue streams are flowing fine. According to a Saturday piece from Forbes, gross revenues for the league were a record $10.7 billion for 2019, up from $10.3 billion last year, according to industry sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. And the upward slant should continue in future years; as noted by Forbes, the league’s deal with Fox television kicks in during the 2022 season and that deal alone has a reported value of $5.1 billion. For those wondering, MLB player payroll and benefits came in at $4.7 billion last year—leaving plenty of pie to go around for administrators, front-office types and ownership figures. The league has seen adjusted revenue growth of 386% since 1992.
  • ESPN’s Sam Miller took a closer look at the forthcoming thee-batter rule, including its real-life implications for several veteran LOOGYs. Miller coins the term “Ollies” (in honor of Indians journeyman Oliver Perez) to represent any appearance that is set to be outlawed under the new rules–which require that pitchers face three batters or get the final out of an inning before being replaced. Perez led the league with 22 such “Ollies” in 2019, while Andrew Chafin, Alex Claudio and Adam Kolarek all logged 15 or more such appearances. Of course, the forthcoming change didn’t stop the Brewers from re-signing Claudio earlier this offseason, so we can all rest assured that left-handed specialists aren’t going anywhere for the time being.

MLB, MLBUA Reach Tentative Labor Agreement

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Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Umpires Association (MLBUA) have reached a tentative five-year labor agreement through the 2024 regular season, according to a press release from the league.  The agreement is subject to the ratification of the 30 clubs and the umpires themselves, with the next steps in that process expected in Jan. 2020.

First indications are that this is not just a ho-hum labor pact. According to a tweet from Jon Heyman of the MLB Network, the umpires “agreed to cooperate” with the league in the continued testing and development of automated balls and strikes (link). The Major League Baseball Umpires Association also agreed to assist if Commissioner Rob Manfred decides to utilize the system at the major league level, corroborates a report from the Associated Press.

Last season saw the launch of computerized strike zones in lower levels of organized baseball. The independent Atlantic League became the first American pro league to let a computer call balls and strikes at its All-Star Game on July 10. The system used combined an iPhone, a Trackman computer system and Doppler radar to relay proper calls to home plate umps. The Arizona Fall League also gave the system a trial run, and MLB had already been in talks to install the system at the Class A Florida State League for 2020. “This idea has been around for a long time and it’s the first time it’s been brought to life in a comprehensive way,” Morgan Sword, MLB’s senior vice president of economics and operations, said on the night the Atlantic League experiment started, as quoted in the AP story.

While most headlines tomorrow will surely revolve around the “robo ump” implications of this new pact, it’s also worth sharing that the sides agreed to raises in compensation and retirement benefits along with provisions to allow earlier retirement, as noted by both the AP and Heyman. With the current CBA scheduled for expiration in less than two years, it’s at least some sign of stability that the league and umpires union were able to strike a mutually beneficial labor accord.

MLBTR Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

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The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.

We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?

Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?

The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.

But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.

In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.

We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?

Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)

How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)

NL Notes: Giants, Bumgarner, Bauer, Manfred, Padres, Yates

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The Giants “remain engaged” on franchise legend Madison Bumgarner, according to the last check of the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman (link). Obviously, the word “engaged” can be taken to mean any number of things–ranging from casual contact to protracted negotiation. It is notable, though, that Bumgarner’s longtime team apparently hasn’t been scared off by the increasing amount of competition for his services.

Since November, we’ve heard the Twins, Padres, Dodgers, Reds, White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals all linked to the lefthander to varying degrees. It became clear that MadBum’s reps were seeking something in excess of $100MM after they apparently passed on a reported $70MM-plus offer from Arizona earlier this offseason. Recent ceiling-raising deals for Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole have likely only helped position such a nine-figure contract as a probable outcome.

More Saturday notes from around the NL…

  • Add Reds pitcher Trevor Bauer to those critical of proposed changes from Rob Manfred and the league office. Well, perhaps “critical” doesn’t exactly do Bauer’s Saturday comments justice–perhaps “scorched earth” would be a better descriptor? “At least Rob Manfred is trying to ruin baseball at all levels and isn’t discriminating,” Bauer said on Twitter today. “Something to be said for consistency, I guess.” Bauer then asked followers what their “most hated Rob Manfred idea” was, before following up with a second tweet that characterized Manfred’s proposed changes as a “money grab”. While players should be entitled to their own opinions, it rates as newsworthy to see a public-facing employee criticize a central administrative office so, well, publicly. Whether other players share Bauer’s enmity toward proposed changes–which center around minor league contraction–is an open question.
  • Although it still remains to be seen if his club will make a front-end addition to its pitching staff, Padres GM AJ Preller certainly feels like their Drew Pomeranz addition will help make its bullpen one of MLB’s best. “I think the way Drew pitched at the end of last season, what Kirby’s done the last three years and especially last year, we feel really good about the back part of our bullpen,” Preller said of pairing Pomeranz with closer Kirby Yates, as quoted in an article from Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. Interestingly, Preller also made some comments that, if we’re inclined to close reading, could be seen as something of a statement on Yates’ future with the club. “If that ends up being something that plays out for us over the course of Drew’s four years, and we have lights out back of the bullpen, that would be ideal, honestly,” Preller said. Yates only has one year of control remaining, and extension talks have seemed rather touch-and-go to this point. Preller didn’t mention the Hawaiian by name in the last part of that quote, and his use of the word “ideal” should also be noted; still, it does give some indication of how the team’s top baseball operations mind envisions the club’s pen in future seasons. Jeff Sanders of the Union-Tribune relayed that the club plans to resume contract talks with Yates after, in Preller’s words, the club gets “a better sense of where we’re at payroll wise, where we’re at roster wise” over the next few weeks.

Latest On Angels’ Pitching Pursuits

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Saturday brought a celebratory mood to Anaheim, as the Angels conducted a press conference welcoming their newest second-best player, Anthony Rendon. While the presser included several interesting quotes on the part of Rendon–including his preference for Anaheim over LA due to its family-oriented atmosphere–the most interesting takeaway from the day may have been GM Billy Eppler’s statements indicating that the club remains “actively engaged” in the market for pitching. Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register passes along Eppler’s quotes, which indicate that Rendon’s signing will not preclude the club from going after impact pitching.

“We will continue to look at pitching,” Eppler is quoted as saying in Fletcher’s article. “I’m still actively engaged in that marketplace.” Eppler allowed that the club could have payroll space for two possible pitching acquisitions. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, and Dallas Keuchel represent the high-end remaining options on the open market, and we’ve already heard the club connected to Indians hurler Corey Kluber today–even if a later report characterized the Halos as “out” in the Kluber trade race.

Regarding the trade market on pitching in general, Eppler said that asking prices are a bit too aggressive for LA’s liking at the moment. “The prices are a little rich right now,” Eppler said of the market. “I’m not sure I’m going to engage at the level clubs are asking right now, but I know I can play if I want to.” As for whether the free agent options available will prove too rich as well, we’ve already heard that Bumgarner is seeking to surpass the nine-figure mark with his next contract, although price estimates have been murkier in regard to Ryu and Keuchel. But Ryu’s old team, the Dodgers, don’t seem to be chomping at the bit at this stage to retain the Korean lefty–perhaps the chance to draw away both Rendon and Ryu from their rivals to the north would be an added delight for Eppler and Co.

As for the added appeal Rendon represents for Anaheim as a free agent destination, agent Scott Boras opined that the third baseman “absolutely” makes the Angels a more desirable club for pitchers–a statement noteworthy in that Boras represents both Keuchel and Ryu. “I think the Angels, in the pitching community, are viewed as a team that is very different than the team that entered the offseason,” Boras said. “No question.” As it stands now, the club projects to enter 2020 with Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria, Shohei Ohtani, and the recently acquired Dylan Bundy as starting pitching options.

AL Notes: Mariners, Seager, Orioles, Davis, Matheny

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Seattle Times beat writer Ryan Divish cites a source close to the situation in saying that there is a “small chance but definitely a chance” that the Mariners deal Kyle Seager this offseason (link).  Any time a club does anything short of unequivocally ruling out a player as “untouchable”, it means a trade is a possibility — not as if we would be inclined to believe that anyone on the Mariners roster is untouchable from the unsentimental hand of GM Jerry Dipoto, least of all a well-compensated, past-30 player like Seager.  We heard this week that multiple clubs were in on the third sacker, although his $15MM club option for 2022 would convert to a player option if he’s traded. Seager could be open to amending that clause, perhaps in an effort to play for a contending team in 2020, but Seattle vet is still due $37MM over the next two seasons. Seager launched 23 home runs in Seattle’s difficult hitting environment last year while slashing .239/.321/.468 (110 wRC+), which is generally in line with career averages for the 32-year-old.

More notes from around the AL…

  • Orioles GM Mike Elias said on Saturday that the club likes the collegiate pitching at the top of the 2020 first-year player draft, as reported by Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports (link). Of course, Baltimore has the second-overall pick in that draft, so the club has a realistic shot at landing their choice of arms among Emerson Hancock (Georgia), Asa Lacy (Texas A&M), Cole Wilcox (Georgia), or Reid Detmers (Louisville). Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson is widely believed to be the top player available in next year’s draft, but the Tigers will have the first crack at his burly bat.
  • Elias doesn’t sound overly stressed about the team’s remaining commitment to embattled slugger Chris Davis, saying in a fan Q&A–with Zachary Silver of MLB.com present–that the team will “work with [Davis] throughout the season“. While that doesn’t give an exact plan in regard to the team’s on-field usage of Davis moving forward, it certainly feels like a further reduction in playing time could be in the works. Davis got into just 105 games last season, logging a second consecutive season well below the Mendoza line (.179/.276/.326 overall). For what it’s worth, Elias also said that he doesn’t take Davis’ remaining three years “lightly” and that Davis remains an asset to the Orioles’ fan community.
  • Sports Management Worldwide is, according to its website, a sports agency and private for-profit sports management training institution based in Portland, Oregon; it was also the recent site of instruction for new Royals manager Mike Matheny, as profiled in a piece by Joe Lemire of Sport Techie. Matheny was often criticized for his strategic management during his time as skipper for the Cardinals, so this summer saw him buff up on his analytics via an SMM course primarily catered toward individuals “trying to break into the sports industry or boost themselves beyond an entry-level job”. The courses taken this summer are said to have covered nearly all aspects of the use of data in baseball, including arbitration forecasts, defensive valuations, and in-game preparation. “How can I stay relevant? How can I see what’s next? How can I provide our players any kind of edge to what’s on the horizon?” Matheny said in reference to his motivation for taking SMM courses. “We’re in a new era in baseball. Players are understanding the data and the information more. They’re hungrier for it than ever before and more open to it than ever before.” While some will snark at Matheny’s educational endeavor, it seems laudable that the 49-year-old Matheny–a man of no small professional accomplishment–would take pains to ensure that he’s adapting to a world increasingly impacted by data and evolving technologies.

Latest On Corey Kluber

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6:51 pm: The Angels can be counted out on Kluber at this point, per Rosenthal (link).

6:31 pm: The Dodgers are still “more focused” on Lindor in talks with the Indians, per Heyman (link).

6:11 pm: Dallas Morning News writer Evan Grant cites sources in confirming that the Rangers are actively engaged on Kluber, noting the shift in direction a Kluber acquisition would represent after recent indications from GM Jon Daniels that the team would not consider one-year “rentals” (link).

5:48pm: Corey Kluber has made for one of the hardest-to-pin trade candidates of the offseason, with the 33-year-old Indians hurler coming off an injury-wrecked 2019 that saw him perform in just seven games, and poorly. However, it seems like a fair number of teams are confident in an immediate return to form, with baseball journalist Robert Murray relaying that the Kluber market is “heating up”. Murray names the Angels and Padres as two parties that have recently checked in. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network corroborates this report by saying that Kluber’s market is “very active” with multiple teams in play, including the Dodgers. Heyman characterizes Kluber as “much more likely” to get dealt than shortstop Francisco Lindor. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that the Rangers are “in the mix“.

With free-agent pitching valuations rising like Silicon Valley IPOs, it’s easy to understand why more than one team might start looking to the trade front to find a frontline starter–even if that pitcher comes with some age or injury concerns. The Padres, for one, have been connected to virtually every top-flight starter made available in trades in recent years, from Marcus Stroman to Noah Syndergaard to David Price. GM AJ Preller and his group are yet to pull the trigger on anything substantive in the pitching department, and the signal has long been that the club would refrain from any major splash spending this offseason. It’s easy to see how Klubot might fit well atop their rotation. The pitcher’s return to his drafting organization would position him with Garrett Richards, Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet in a physically imposing top four.

For the Angels, a Kluber courtship may similarly be about their choice to allocate resources toward Anthony Rendon, rather than Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole. We heard this week that the team was in active discussions on Kluber. Hard to see a fit here? Not exactly. The Angels have struggled mightily in the pitching department in recent years, with 2019 mid-priced free agent gambles like Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill rolling snake eyes in the season’s early months. The passing of Tyler Skaggs, injuries to Shohei Ohtani, and a lack of impact talent at the top of the system has limited the effectiveness of the Anaheim staff in the last calendar year. Of course, Kluber himself couldn’t be positioned as a long-term answer: he’ll earn $17.5MM in 2020, after which he has an $18MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2021. At the least, though, he would partner with Dylan Bundy in a pairing of perfectly reasonable 2020 pitching additions.

It’s also no secret that the Dodgers have courted pitching this offseason, as the last few months have seen them connected–substantively and otherwise–to Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Kwang-hyun Kim, Cole, and Strasburg. Their needs are less glaring, of course. The club already features Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, and Ross Stripling. Add on one more top-flight arm? Sure, why not. It’s always been the m.o. of Andrew Friedman to stockpile as many effective arms as humanly possible, and a Kluber acquisition would give the club another frontline arm–even if he, like Kershaw, has been more good-than-great in his postseason career (career 3.97 postseason ERA in 45.1 innings).

That brings us to Texas. Their offer to Rendon was said to fall considerably short, with a reported 6-year, $192MM contract proposal sitting some $53MM shy of the Angels’ winning bid. Maybe the club wasn’t feeling as bullish as expected about the projected developmental windfalls expected to accompany their new ballpark (which was apparently set on actual fire on Saturday afternoon). Maybe the club simply has an organizational philosophy precluding it from entertaining $200M-plus deals–there would certainly be some merit to being wary of such a commitment. Either way, a Kluber addition would give GM Jon Daniels a wholeheartedly professional group of starting horses entering 2020. They’ve already added Kyle Gibson to a staff led by Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Kluber’s addition would bring them to four veterans who, if not the youngest or the most alluring, would certainly make for perhaps the steadiest staff in the bigs.

Cubs Reportedly Signaling Need To Clear Payroll

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President Theo Epstein and his cohort have been decidedly mum on the Cubs’ payroll outlook this offseason, with the trade market looking like the club’s likeliest route toward improving a roster that went 84-78 last season. Now, a report is indicating the Cubs are rebuking even “low-budget” free agents due to payroll concerns, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pouring cold water on the free agency hopes of north side fans.

On the subject of a potential reunion with 2019 standout Nicholas Castellanos, Rosenthal had this to say: “Not a chance, at least for the moment. Club officials are telling representatives of even low-budget free agents that they need to clear money before engaging in serious negotiations.”

While that likely feels like a bit of a gut punch for Chicago fans, it makes some sense that Epstein and Co. would make a reduction on their estimated $210MM luxury tax payroll a priority. The Cubs were one of three teams to exceed the tax in 2019, and, while our Offseason Outlook noted that the team only stood to pay a $6.34MM penalty for that infraction, a club can’t be blamed for trying to exercise some fiduciary responsibility.

Still, the idea that even “low-budget” signings would be out of their range likely registers as a disappointment, for the moment. As currently constructed, the Cubs project to enter 2019 with Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester in the rotation, which, at first glance, doesn’t project as quite a first-division group. Elsewhere, the outfield figures to need some remodeling.  Castellanos’ mid-season acquisition helped cover for a circumspect downturn by Albert Almora–allowing Castellanos to walk would seem to again require a full-time split for Almora and Ian Happ, two players who, despite some positive attributes, carry a fair amount of risk. The bullpen, meanwhile, arguably calls for improvement at every level.

Obviously, added support to the notion that the Cubs are space-strapped this winter only makes a trade feel all the more inevitable. Kris Bryant stands out as a ready-made palliative to whichever team is sore from losing out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson. Willson Contreras would project as easily the most marketable catcher on the trade market. Maybe Happ himself could be seen as a viable target for teams in need of a flex outfielder? After the cutting loose of Addison Russell this winter, any of those moves would further signal that the youth movement the club relied upon in its World Series run has begun to shift into a transitional phase.

Red Sox Interested In Rick Porcello

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With the free agent pitching ranks quickly thinning out, it seems veteran starter Rick Porcello is beginning to garner widespread interest. After yesterday brought word of the Mets’ pursuit of the right-hander, it now appears that the Red Sox are kicking the tires on the soon-to-be 31-year-old, according to reporting from Jason Mastrodonato of The Boston Globe. The reporter cites an industry source in saying that Boston and Porcello’s reps “remain engaged in discussions”.

We figured Porcello for a one-year deal worth $11MM at the outset of this offseason, but his representatives may be able to leverage multiple interested parties into a guarantee exceeding that projection. True, Porcello’s 2019 was ugly: he pitched to a 5.52 ERA (4.76 ERA) in 174.1 innings, while posting the lowest strikeout rates he’s exhibited since coming to Boston prior to 2015 (7.38 K/9). Still, there are still some underlying analytics that offer reason for optimism, including the high spin rate generated on Porcello’s breaking pitches–that is, if someone is apt to overlook his struggles with the home run ball (the righty allowed 31 taters in 2019, tied for seventh-most in the game). Perhaps it’s most judicious to simply say that teams in search of an innings-eater could do worse than a young-ish, former Cy Young winner in good health.

The Red Sox definitely figure to be one such team. As things stand, the team figures to call on Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi next season–three pitchers with serious durability concerns. A Porcello re-signing wouldn’t raise many neck hairs in the Massachusetts area, but it would provide some stability for a rotation that, outside of Eduardo Rodriguez, is relatively short on it.

For what it’s worth, Mastrodonato provides some quotes Porcello made back in May when he expressed a desire to stay with the Sox. Speaking of a possible extension, the pitcher said that he and his reps had “expressed our willingness to take a discount to make that work”, but that the club basically didn’t feel like it was at financial liberty to give him the deal he was seeking. Whether the club, under the new direction of Chaim Bloom, has changed their thinking on Porcello’s value bears watching as the Winter Meetings get underway this week.

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