Jeff Todd | MLB Trade Rumors

Tim Wallach Will Not Return As Marlins Bench Coach

By Jeff Todd | September 27, 2019 at 2:21pm CDT

Veteran coach and long-time big leaguer Tim Wallach will step away from the Marlins at the end of the season, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). Wallach has served as the bench coach in Miami since the 2016 season.

Though the Marlins decided to retain skipper Don Mattingly, they’ll be on the look for a new second in command in the dugout. The split is entirely amicable, it seems. Per Heyman, Wallach would simply like to live nearer to his extended family.

Wallach is said to be willing to continue his coaching career elsewhere if it puts him closer to his native California. He had spent his prior coaching career with the Dodgers organization.

MLBTR Poll: Cubs’ Biggest Roster Need

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2019 at 8:24am CDT

There’s still a lot of time left to dissect what could be a fascinating upcoming offseason for the Cubs. Questions abound for the organization. This time last year, it wasn’t yet clear how limited the spending capacity would be. We’ve got quite a bit left to learn before we can seriously contemplate just how the club can fill its chief needs. But with the team now officially bounced from the postseason race, it seems an opportune moment to gauge the sentiment of the MLBTR readership on the key roster issues facing the team moving forward.

Looking forward, the Cubs will dispatch Ben Zobrist, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek, and the recently acquired Nicholas Castellanos onto the open market. Otherwise, the club controls the remainder of the roster. Barring a major trade, there isn’t a need behind the dish (Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini), in the corner infield (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo), or at shortstop (Javier Baez). There are a variety of multi-positional players floating around, but nobody has a firm claim to second base. The team can account for most of the necessary outfield, rotation, and bullpen spots, but could clearly stand to improve in all of those areas.

There’s a basic snapshot. What do you think the biggest need is for the Cubbies? (Poll link for app users.)

Three Needs: Kansas City Royals

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2019 at 7:30am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers, Pirates, and Angels. Now we’re going to Kansas City to check in on a Royals team that just cracked 100 losses for the second-consecutive season — an ignominious feat they last accomplished in 2005-2006.

[Kansas City Royals Depth Chart]

1. Auction Off Whit Merrifield

You never want to move a guy like this. But he’s closing in on his 31st birthday and showed a slight but noticeable downtick in the speed department last year, dropping from his 95th percentile highpoint to the 85.6th percentile in sprint speed. That’s still quite good, but the difference showed up in the results: Merrifield was successful on just 19 of 29 stolen base attempts a year after swiping 45 and generated 1.2 runs on the bases after tabbing 7.4 in 2018.

We’re not pulling the fire alarm on Merrifield. Even if he’s merely a really good but sub-elite baserunner, he’s one of the game’s steadiest high-average hitters and continues to show solid pop. And while the metrics waffled a bit on the glovework, Merrifield still carries a track record of quality defensive play along with immense versatility.

Add it all up, and … did we mention the Royals just lost 100 games for the second time in a row? Merrifield is a heck of a useful player on a nice contract. He’d basically fit on any team in baseball and might be a real difference-maker in the right situation. Everything about Merrifield’s profile screams for him to be sent to a contender. Keeping him is a luxury the Royals can’t afford.

2. Pursue Extensions, But Don’t Over-Extend

The core reason the Royals ought to move Merrifield is that a low-revenue team only has so many opportunities to achieve value and swing above its spending weight. Those must be maximized, particularly when the team is in a rebuilding phase. The same reasoning supports the pursuit of offseason extension negotiations — with some players, and to a point.

Why the cautionary references? Because a team in this situation must maintain some serious future-looking spending discipline and focus primarily on improving its asset base rather than on avoiding the eventual departure of guys it likes.

Convincing slugger Jorge Soler to commit into his thirties seems unnecessarily risky, even if he just enjoyed a nice campaign. Righty Brad Keller might be worth inking at the right price after another good season in terms of results, but the landmine detectors (5.24 SIERA, for example) are flashing red. A long-term arrangement with Adalberto Mondesi or even Hunter Dozier could deliver huge upside, and certainly ought to be considered, but the organization should pull hard on its leverage given the ongoing uncertainty with those players.

3. Chase Some Upside In A Free Agent Signing

There are lots of problems on the Royals roster. How could there not be? It doesn’t matter so much where the team decides to add — first base, middle infield, outfield, pitching of all varieties — as that it does so boldly. At least, it’s worth a serious attempt. Having already endured the bulk of the payroll hangover from the team’s recent run of success, there’s some payroll space to play with.

Last year, the organization inked one-year deals with Billy Hamilton, Chris Owings, Jake Diekman, Brad Boxberger, Terrance Gore, and Kyle Zimmer. Those signings more or less flopped completely, though such is life when it comes to this kind of dealmaking. It was generally a defensible group of signings, including some younger players who had shown real talent in the past along with easily flippable veteran relievers.

Continuing to make those kinds of signings is sensible, when the opportunities are there. But why not also ramp up the risk factor just a bit on a multi-year deal? Yasiel Puig, Avisail Garcia, and Corey Dickerson are interesting corner outfield targets; Alex Wood and Michael Wacha might like pitching in Kauffman. If any of those players struggle to find adequate arrangements elsewhere, they could be bailed out with a deal that spans multiple campaigns at a low-ish AAV — thus increasing the future trade value in the event that the anticipated bounceback comes to pass. With most of the market preferring to spend more for less years, there could be opportunities to swim against the tide and acquire somewhat higher-ceiling talent.

Joe Maddon Discusses Future With Cubs

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2019 at 12:47pm CDT

Cubs manager Joe Maddon may be riding out the final few days of a memorable tenure — or wrapping up a disappointing season before attempting to spur a bounce back in 2020. He discussed the still-uncertain situation today on 670 The Score (Twitter feed).

Maddon made clear that there’s no resolution to this point. But he indicated that he expects one in the near future, saying his future would be addressed “over the next couple days.” As for the outcome, he says he’s “very optimistic.”

It’s not entirely clear whether Maddon intended that as an expression of optimism in a new contact or a characterization of his general state of mind. But he left no doubt of his own preferences. When asked whether he wished to stay in his job, Maddon responded:

“Of course. That’s what I signed up for in the beginning. It’s always the intention, to stay for a really long time.”

Maddon certainly cast a sunny disposition in his chat, calling the club’s slide out of postseason position “frustrating” but otherwise suggesting he’s quite pleased to be in Chicago. Maddon spoke effusively of Cubs fans and the team’s front office. And he cast his gaze to the future.

“I’m no less motivated now than I was on the very first day on the job,” says Maddon. “To be given the opportunity to be the manager of this organization is quite the honor.”

If that reads almost like a publicly stated interview talking point, it may be just that. Most MLBTR readers expect him to depart, though we’ve yet to hear anything close to a strong hint of the organization’s intentions. The outcome of his situation could be a key domino impacting other managerial situations around the game.

NL Notes: Mets, Posey, Alcantara

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2019 at 11:20am CDT

While there have obviously been some bright spots for the Mets this year, Joel Sherman of the New York Post rejects the idea that it’s just another season. Having dealt away significant prospects and bypassed opportunities to recoup others, the Mets made a win-now gambit that hasn’t paid out. That makes this year a distinct waste, Sherman argues. There’ll surely be long-term impacts that haven’t yet fully been felt. Most immediately, Sherman posits that skipper Mickey Callaway is likely to be bounced from the dugout — an approach that would be supported heartily by MLBTR readers.

Ronald Acuna Dealing With Hip Tightness

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2019 at 9:40am CDT

The last thing the Braves need at this point of the season, with nothing more to gain or lose in the standings, is an injury issue — least of all to a key player. In that light, it was rather concerning to see young star Ronald Acuna depart yesterday’s game early.

Per a club announcement at the time, Acuna was pulled owing to hip tightness. The team characterized the decision as precautionary. Of course, that’s something of a typical placeholding statement in such situations, so Braves fans would be forgiven for fearing worse.

Manager Brian Snitker made clear after the contest that the organization doesn’t see cause for alarm, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. “He’ll just be day to day,” says Snitker. “We’ll treat him up and see how he is tomorrow.”

Acuna was even more forceful on the point, saying he didn’t feel he needed to be removed and will be ready to go whenever he’s written back into the lineup. That’s just the sort of gung ho attitude you admire in a young player, but it’s also something the team needs to protect against with the postseason beckoning.

Indeed, the 21-year-old also indicated that this isn’t a new issue.

“I’ve been feeling it before. But I’m a warrior and I’m going to keep playing through these types of things. That’s just the way that I am. I was dealing with it and pushing through it. But eventually, it came to the point where it became a little more intolerable.”

Given that, it was surely wise of the Braves to take a cautious approach. Acuna is, after all, one of the team’s key players. Even if the hip isn’t a significant hindrance at the plate, it could conceivably limit him in the field and on the bases — where he derives significant value — or end up resulting in a more concerning health issue.

Three Needs: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2019 at 7:34am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, and Rangers. Now we’ll cover the Pirates, who entered the All-Star break 2.5 games off of the pace in the NL Central before enduring a calamitous second half.

[Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart]

1. Market Starling Marte

The appropriate path depends to no small extent upon the market’s appetite for the Pirates’ assets. But it’s time to strongly pursue a sell-side approach to the winter after dabbling and pulling back this summer. That begins with Marte, the team’s excellent center fielder.

True, there isn’t a single standout team in the division, so it’s open to competition. The Pirates still have a good bit of MLB talent and perhaps some room to add salary. But the roster situation is not good. Top starter Jameson Taillon is going to miss most or all of the 2020 campaign. If the despicable allegations against closer Felipe Vazquez can be proven in court, he’ll deservedly spend the next few years in prison rather than pitching. There’s no spending out of this malaise for an organization that hasn’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll and opened this season at just $75MM.

Marte stands out as a marketable asset that could bring a strong return that will help this team find its way back to respectability. It’s hard to see a path within the next two seasons, after which he’ll be a free agent. And he’s no longer extremely cheap. But two option years that add up to just $24MM is still a relative bargain for a high-quality regular who is still 31 years of age. That’s especially true given that the upcoming free agent market is lean on center fielders.

2. Re-Think The Rotation

The Pirates have a fair amount of interesting infield and outfield talent at and near the MLB level. Plenty of questions remain to be answered, but that’s just how it goes with young players and low-revenue teams. Even if Marte is sent elsewhere, the club can mostly feel good about rolling with internal options with some affordable supplementation in the lineup.

It’s a different situation on the pitching side of things, especially in the rotation. Mitch Keller could yet be a future ace, and he showed intriguing K/BB numbers this year, but there’s plenty to iron out. Joe Musgrove had a nice year and might form a useful mid-rotation pairing with Trevor Williams if the latter can re-learn how to limit the long ball. Chris Archer … well, who knows, but the team probably can’t give up on him just yet.

Perhaps there’s an argument to be made for the Pirates mostly to remain internal with the staff. But even then, there’s room to add arms. If the Bucs move some Marte and a few others — Keone Kela would be the next-most-obvious candidate — then there’ll be loads of payroll space to work with. Investing in some intriguing bounceback arms could pay big dividends.

Regardless, the Pittsburgh organization needs to go back to the drawing board on its approach. There was a time not long ago when it was extracting big value from limited spending, but the formula isn’t working. (See here for a nice recent breakdown of the situation.) The league has adjusted, clearly, as the Pirates ended the season with a putrid 5.46 collective starter ERA (and that’s including Taillon). We’ve seen a historic barrage of home runs and rather drastic changes in pitching approaches. Such change inherently creates new opportunities for adjustment in the ever-evolving cat-and-mouse game pitchers and hitters. Your move, Bucs.

3. Seek A New Core Catcher

With Francisco Cervelli leaving town, the Bucs need to try to find a replacement. Elias Diaz has had an exceedingly rough season by more or less every measure, with a 61 wRC+ and brutal framing numbers. Jacob Stallings had a much more solid campaign, though the 29-year-old has never before been trusted with a significant role.

It seems fair to presume that one or both of those incumbents will fill innings usefully in 2020. But it’d be disappointing to rely on them as a duo for another full season. Given the pitching turmoil, it’s especially important to have a steadying presence behind the dish. And this could even be an area the Pirates can look to for some upside.

It’s hard to pry loose good, young catchers. But there could be some possibilities. Austin Hedges stands out as a target. He may never fully come around with the bat, but is by any measure a top-flight defender. There’s little reason to think the club will have a shot at top free agent Yasmani Grandal. But Travis d’Arnaud would be an interesting player to take a bit of a risk on with a longer contract. And there are loads of respected veterans out there if a bigger strike can’t be found, including some bounceback candidates such as Yan Gomes (if the Nats don’t pick up his option).

Poll: Should The Mets Replace Mickey Callaway This Fall?

By Jeff Todd | September 24, 2019 at 12:55pm CDT

Mets manager Mickey Callaway has been on a warm seat for a good bit of his tenure. The temperature has gone up and down at various points, but has never fully cooled — even as GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered near-term support for the skipper. After a disappointing season featuring good-but-not-great results following significant roster investments, should the team move on?

When we asked back in June whether the Mets should dump Callaway in the middle of the season, two-thirds of respondents were in favor. The club sank further from that point but then bounced back and will likely finish the season with a winning record. But the postseason won’t happen barring a total miracle. (Current odds, per Fangraphs: 0.3%.)

It’s awfully difficult to blame Callaway entirely for the way things have gone. Injuries and lack of roster depth in key areas have hurt. Not all of the baseball operations decisions have worked out as hoped. The bullpen has been a mess beyond Callaway’s control, even if his management of it hasn’t always been optimal. He has at least held things together through an undeniably difficult stretch. And he’s already under contract for 2020 with an option for another season.

On the other hand, Callaway has now been at the helm for a pair of seasons without a postseason appearance to show for it. He wasn’t hired by Van Wagenen, for what that’s worth. There’s year-to-year improvement in terms of wins and losses, but it’s also fair to wonder whether the overall mix is one that will allow the Mets to break through in a tough division. Roster maximization is always the key, but there’s an argument that a makeover in the dugout leadership would be a sensible accompaniment for some other offseason changes — if only to instill a sense of urgency. There are some venerable former managers out there in search of new gigs, with more potentially soon to join them.

In the unlikely event that the Mets somehow sneak into a Wild Card spot, it seems fair to presume that Callaway will be safe. But if the season ends in the manner it’s likely to — nice try, but falling short — what ought the organization do? (Poll link for app users.)

Turner, Pham, Osuna To Be Represented By Newly Formed Agency

By Jeff Todd | September 24, 2019 at 12:21pm CDT

Long-time MLB player representative Greg Genske has formed a new agency along with former Ballengee executive Alex Hicks, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The new outfit will be known as GEM Agency and will initially feature several former Genske clients.

According to Heyman, three notable players who’ll start out under the GEM roof: Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, Rays outfielder Tommy Pham, and Astros reliever Roberto Osuna. All had previously been represented by Genske. Turner will be a free agent after the 2020 campaign, when Pham and Osuna will be entering their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

This move comes after a period of immense upheaval following the purchase of Genske’s former outfit, The Legacy Agency, by Gatemore Capital Management. The ensuing maneuvering, including Genske’s firing, have led to various splinter agencies, representatives moving to other firms, and the re-badging of Legacy as GSE Worldwide. It wasn’t exactly an orderly transition. Genske initiated litigation regarding the matter, which is still pending in California.

As always, these latest moves are reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Boras Dishes On Opt-Outs, Upcoming Free Agents

By Jeff Todd | September 24, 2019 at 10:00am CDT

The upcoming free agent market will be shaped to an unusual degree by agent Scott Boras and his clients. That’s true not just because he represents so many of the top players heading to the open market, but because several of his clients have opt-out opportunities this fall. It’s all reading tea leaves at this point, but Boras did offer at least a few subtle hints in the course of an interview with Jon Heyman and Josh Levin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link).

He was asked first about Stephen Strasburg, who just turned 31 and is presently polishing off an excellent and healthy campaign. Given a chance to chat about the talented righty, Boras was muted. Indeed, he began by pointing out that Strasburg can opt out either this winter or next — which is true, and notable, but isn’t exactly a patented Boras sales pitch.

So, does that mean that Strasburg is leaning against an opt out and/or that Boras will recommend he hang onto his four-year, $100MM commitment? That’s impossible to say. And Boras made clear we shouldn’t assume any such thing, saying: “I make it a practice to not discuss anything with players about their contracts until they’re done performing and certainly we’ll have time to address that and I’m sure Stephen will give me direction on it.”

Boras was not similarly restrained when the hosts raised the topic of Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez, another prominent opt-out candidate. Though he didn’t specifically address the opt-out decision (three years, $62.5MM in his case), Boras left little doubt that he has begun compiling talking points on the slugger.

Martinez, per Boras, is “one of the top 5 offensive players in the game … and that is the vision of J.D. Martinez that I believe all teams have.” But the premium hitter is not a bat-only player, says his agent. He’s in the lineup every day and “plays forty or fifty games in the outfield,” says Boras. “I don’t think teams would in any way view J.D. Martinez as a DH,” adds the always-entertaining player rep, who also emphasized Martinez’s leadership and provision of hitting information and “intensity” to teammates.

Whether it’s fair to read anything into these comments is up for debate. Strasburg is famously quiet and may simply prefer his agent support that low profile. But those decisions are of critical importance to the respective teams and the overall market landscape. While their names were at least mentioned, Boras unsurprisingly passed on the chance to highlight Elvis Andrus and Jake Arrieta — two other clients who don’t seem to be in position to strongly consider opting out of their deals.

Boras also largely passed when asked to comment on two key Nationals players, Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto. Boras says the team has made clear its “strong interest” in retaining Rendon. Having previously sputtered, contract talks won’t start again until the Nats wrap up the 2019 campaign. It still seems unlikely that a deal will be made before Rendon has a chance to test the market, though that’s not written in stone.

As for Soto, Boras acknowledged some recent comments from president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo regarding the team’s obvious interest in a long-term deal with the exceptional young hitter. But he did not read more into them than was intended or give any hint that there was particular interest or disinterest in dealmaking on the part of the 20-year-old Soto. “Those are things that we kind of leave in the space of the offseason before we ever begin discussion,” said Boras.

If there was another topic that really seemed to pique Boras’s interest — aside from the need to protect the health of players, in relation to the recent Kris Bryant injury — it was the upcoming free agency of Nicholas Castellanos. The outfielder has been aflame since landing with the Cubs, with Boras explaining that his talent has finally been freed by “getting into a lineup where people really can’t work around him and have to throw to him and they also have situational pressure.”

With Castellanos having “taken advantage of that situation to illustrate his skills,” and shown the defensive chops of one of the “ten to twelve best right fielders in the game,” Boras obviously feels he’s got a significant piece to market. Castellanos is still just 27 years of age and has certainly impressed in Chicago, but it remains less than clear just how robust his market will be. Boras says he believes “everyone understands now what kind of ballplayer that Nick Castellanos is.” And that may be true. But what isn’t clear is whether teams really believe Castellanos to be more than a 2.5 to 3 WAR range of performer — and whether they’ll be willing to commit big money over a lengthy term to acquire such a player.

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