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2018-19 Market Snapshot: First Base

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This is the second installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market. Today, we’ll turn to the first base position.

Teams In Need

Quite a few organizations went without regulars at the first base position in 2018, seemingly content with timeshare situations. That could again be the case, though it’s also possible that a few tantalizing trade targets might lead to a re-thinking on the part of some clubs.

Among likely contenders, only the Rockies jump off the page with an opening — assuming, at least, that they will move Ian Desmond to an outfield or utility role of some kind. Teams like the Mariners and Twins could arguably stand to add at the position, but also might address it by shuffling existing players.

Of course, others could free up space if they see an opportunity to improve. The Yankees, for instance, will have to decide how much they wish to rely upon Luke Voit (while also considering how their DH and catching situations will play out). The Red Sox, Nationals, and Angels are among the clubs that’ll at least be looking for complementary pieces capable of spending some time in the first base mix.

Free Agents

Likely Regulars: Frankly, there don’t appear to be any in this group — making the trade candidates listed below all the more tantalizing.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Steve Pearce has hit a ton in 2018 and deserves a significant role, though he has long been dogged by heath questions. Mark Reynolds proved he can still do damage, while Hanley Ramirez is a wild card. On the left side of the plate, a trio of veterans returns to the open market. Matt Adams collapsed down the stretch but was productive earlier in the year; Lucas Duda did the opposite; Logan Morrison will be looking for a bounceback chance after an injury-plagued campaign. It seems unlikely that Joe Mauer will play anywhere other than Minnesota, but perhaps that can’t be ruled out entirely.

Depth: Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Danny Valencia

Trade Targets

Likely Regulars: The most intriguing name that could be on the market has to be Paul Goldschmidt (1/$14.5MM). It stands to reason that the D-Backs will put him on the block early, seeing whether offers reach a sufficient level to make a move. Another player entering his final year of team control, Jose Abreu of the White Sox ($16MM projected), is perhaps still as much an extension as a trade candidate. Switch-hitter Justin Smoak sustained the better part of his 2017 outbreak this year and will earn a reasonable $8MM in the final season of his contract (his club option value was boosted by escalators). Trading him could offer the Blue Jays a chance to pick up some young talent while clearing the deck for existing young players to get some chances at the MLB level.

There are also some larger contracts worth considering. Wil Myers arguably doesn’t fit the roster puzzle for the Padres, though his deal (4/$64MM plus option) is just about to ramp up in cost. Though the Giants’ remaining obligations to Brandon Belt (3/$48MM) outstrip his present value — particularly after another season in which he missed time and didn’t hit to his typical levels — he’d still represent an interesting target for some clubs, potentially opening the door to some off-the-wall trade concepts. Speaking of which, the Phillies could seek to bail on Carlos Santana (2/$35MM plus option), depending upon how untold other possibilities play out, though they likely won’t find a terribly receptive market. And while an offseason trade remains hard to fathom, it’s still worth remembering that the Tigers could try to move some of their remaining obligations to Miguel Cabrera (5/$162MM plus options) at some point.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Despite a strong year at the plate and still-palatable salary, C.J. Cron ($5.2MM projected) seems not to be in the Rays’ plans following the acquisition of Ji-Man Choi. Jose Martinez of the Cardinals (pre-arb) is another quality righty bat that might hold appeal, though his struggles to handle first base defensively may make him a DH-only target.

Teams considering lefty sluggers could take a look at the Phillies’ Justin Bour ($5.2MM projected) or Brewers’ Eric Thames (1/$7MM plus option), depending upon how those organizations proceed. Greg Bird of the Yankees ($1.5MM projected), Dominic Smith of the Mets (pre-arb), and AJ Reed of the Astros (pre-arb) could represent upside plays for the right team if their current orgs decide it’s time to move on.

Adrian Gonzalez Hopes To Play In 2019

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Veteran first baseman Adrian Gonzalez said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link) that he is “preparing to play next year.” If he does end up playing, though, he says that’ll likely be the end of his career.

Gonzalez opened the 2018 campaign with the Mets, who promised him only the league-minimum since the Braves (via the Dodgers) were already carrying the rest of the tab on the remainder of his contract. He ended up being cut loose after appearing in just 54 games. All told, the former star has struggle mightily over the past two seasons, producing a cumulative .240/.292/.363 slash with nine home runs in 439 plate appearances.

Needless to say, that recent track record suggests that Gonzalez will not be in significant demand this winter. It probably does not help that he has also dealt with back troubles and did not play again after being released by the Mets. Of course, the veteran will now be coming off of a lengthy rest.

Gonzalez says he did have options to put on another uniform in 2018, but elected not to since what was available “didn’t make sense.” Just what he’ll be looking for in the coming offseason isn’t quite clear, but it’s at best questionable that he’ll be offered a 40-man roster spot.

Beyond his lack of defensive versatility and limited baserunning capacity, Gonzalez’s limitations at the plate will be a major factor. Even those teams that think there could still be a spark will assuredly only see him as an option to hoist the bat against right-handed pitching. Gonzalez has, after all, struggled badly against southpaws over the past several years.

Padres To Replace Hitting Coach Matt Stairs, Infield Coach Josh Johnson

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The Padres are slated to make at least two modifications to manager Andy Green’s coaching staff in the offseason, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Hitting coach Matt Stairs and infield coach Josh Johnson will not return to their posts.

Stairs, a long-time MLB slugger, joined the Friars after serving in the same capacity with the Phillies in 2017. He lost that job when the Philadelphia organization made broader changes to its field staff. Prior to that point, Stairs had served mostly as a broadcaster after wrapping up his playing career in 2011.

As for Johnson, not to be confused with the former starting pitcher of the same name, he too will be bumped from the mix after just one season. The former third-round draft pick never made it to the majors as a player. His only prior coaching experience came in one season as the skipper of the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League affiliate.

Despite these changes, it does not appear that the San Diego organization will be embarking on a full hiring search. Rather, per the report, the club intends to promote existing personnel to fill the openings.

NL Notes: Correa, Arenado, Suzuki, Mattingly

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If you haven’t yet come across this recent profile of former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa, via SI’s Ben Reiter, then you’ll certainly want to give it a read. The analytical guru ended up in federal prison after impermissibly accessing the computer systems of the Astros. While he’s still mostly remaining silent on details of that stunning episode, Correa offers a fascinating glimpse into his time behind bars.

The latest from the National League:

  • While it’s hard to see the 2018 campaign as anything but a success for the Rockies, the organization faces some tough decisions in the offseason to come. One of those involves franchise cornerstone Nolan Arenado, who is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. As Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports, extension scenarios have yet to be discussed by team and player. Arenado’s arb salary will force the sides to the bargaining table, but it’s not yet clear whether there’ll be a clear path to a long-term deal. It is certainly possible to imagine a trade scenario, though that’d be a tough call to make for the organization. For his part, Arenado says he loves playing in Colorado and anticipates remaining with the organization, but does acknowledge that “things can get a little iffy because of the business side of it.”
  • As he wraps up his contract with the Braves, backstop Kurt Suzuki tells Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link) that he’d like to find a way back into the fold. The Atlanta organization has already struck a deal to retain Tyler Flowers, who has combined with Suzuki to form a solid and cost-effective duo. Continuing that situation surely holds some appeal, though it’s also quite reasonable to expect that the Braves front office will look into the acquisition of a top-tier option behind the dish. [RELATED: 2018-19 Market Snapshot: Catcher]
  • Even as the Marlins make some changes to their coaching staff, they haven’t given indication that they’ll replace skipper Don Mattingly in his post. That said, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that there hasn’t been any effort on the part of the team to extend Mattingly’s contract, which is entering its final season. It’s certainly possible that’ll still come to pass, though it would hardly be surprising if the club preferred instead to maintain the status quo.

Rays Announce Extension With Manager Kevin Cash

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9:50am: It’s now official, with the Rays announcing the deal.

8:24am: The Rays have agreed to a long-term extension with skipper Kevin Cash, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. While not yet official, the deal is expected to be formally announced in short order.

It’s a lengthy new commitment for the Rays, who have now installed Cash through the 2024 season. The contract also includes an option for another year, per Topkin, with financial details still unknown. This pact replaces the prior deal that, according to the report, still included one more season and a two-year option. (Prior indications were that Cash’s deal was for five years in duration, but it seems the final pair of campaigns had not been guaranteed.)

Cash guided the Tampa Bay club to a 90-72 record this season, utilizing a variety of unorthodox means of deploying the roster. While that wasn’t enough to earn a spot in the postseason, the showing created quite a bit of optimism in the near future. It also obviously demonstrated to the front office that Cash is the right person to translate their theories into action.

While it has long seemed that Cash was in harmony with the higher-ups, the results had lagged over his first three years on the job. Hired in a 2014-15 offseason that saw massive organizational change — top baseball ops exec Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon both left town — Cash ended up overseeing a pair of middling 80-82 campaigns sandwiched around a brutal 2016 effort (68-94).

As the 2018 campaign approached, the Tampa Bay organization was under pressure. Panned by the media and pursued by the MLBPA for their cost cutting, the Rays were forced to defend their decision to sell off a series of still-controlled veteran players late in the offseason. The club ended up shipping out yet more veterans, with staff ace Chris Archer (link) following catcher Wilson Ramos (link), starter Nathan Eovaldi (link), closer Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span (link) out the door during the course of the season.

Despite the exodus of MLB talent, the roster performed admirably. As late in the season as August 5th, the Rays sat at .500. But the team finished on a 34-16 tear. Cash, aided by a data-driven ops department, wielded a variety of emerging young players to excellent effect.

When the season closed, the Rays were left looking at an intriguing depth chart, largely blank future balance sheet, and lauded farm system. There’s even renewed hope of enhanced future revenues, as the organization pursues new ballpark plans, though that’ll certainly take some time and still faces hurdles. Further success on the field would no doubt be a welcome development from a business perspective.

Cash, then, will again be tasked with squeezing value from every corner of the roster. He’ll enter this new phase of his stint with a big vote of confidence and ample job security. Expectations, too, are raised. Much of his roster is set, though it’ll certainly be interesting to see what sort of additional tinkering is pursued over the winter to come.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Catcher

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As we enjoy the postseason festivities, it’s an opportune time to prepare for the coming wheeling and dealing of the winter. We always take an in-depth look at every team’s situation and also focus in on the major free agents. To get things rolling, though, we’ll also add a new angle with this market snapshot series.

Whether analyzing things from the perspective of a given team looking to address a certain position or from a player hoping to find a fit, the broader market context is a key consideration. Accordingly, we’ll use this series to get a general sense of the market setting at each position.

Teams In Need

Quite a few organizations will be interested in finding new options to take the lion’s share of the time behind the dish. The Angels, Astros, Athletics, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Nationals, and Rays all plainly lack clear-cut, number-one options behind the dish and could be interested in significant upgrades.

Other teams could mostly roll with what’s already on hand but will likely at least dabble in the market for regulars. The Braves, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Rockies could justifiably go after top backstops, for instance, and are also among the teams that will be eyeing part-time contributors.

Meanwhile, the Yankees’ views on Gary Sanchez could represent a major wild card in the development of the market. And, of course, catching depth is always valued even for clubs whose MLB roster spots are already mostly accounted for.

Free Agents

This class certainly isn’t exactly loaded with stars, but that’s never really the case at the catching position. It does appear to have two clear regulars on offer, along with a variety of other backstops who might be entrusted with significant playing time again in 2019.

Likely Regulars:

Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos have each hit quite well this year, but the former has the edge in framing and health. Both should secure strong, multi-year deals.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options:

Kurt Suzuki and Martin Maldonado are arguably the top options here, the former owing to his solid bat and the latter to his well-regarded defensive work. A few former everyday receivers — Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann, and Matt Wieters — seem likely to be forced into lesser roles. Otherwise, A.J. Ellis, Nick Hundley, and Devin Mesoraco turned in solid campaigns this year.

Depth: Drew Butera, Chris Gimenez, Bryan Holaday, Jeff Mathis, Rene Rivera, Bobby Wilson

Trade Targets

It’s tough to know just how many of these players will truly be made available — at least, at a palatable price. And the market could feature some other names as well, particularly if a player is freed up to be moved based on other maneuvering.

Likely Regulars:

With two more seasons of arbitration control remaining, and coming off of a huge campaign, J.T. Realmuto of the Marlins ought to be pursued by a variety of contenders. Francisco Cervelli (Pirates, 1/$11.5MM) had an outstanding year and could be on the block if the Bucs see a chance to achieve an intriguing return and fill in with cheaper pieces. There’s no indication the Royals will deal Salvador Perez (3/$36MM), but he’ll surely be asked about.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options:

Some might argue that Robinson Chirinos (Rangers, 1/$2.375MM) did enough in 2018 to be viewed as a regular, but the guess here is that he’d be valued as a primary but not everyday type catcher who has an attractive contract. He might also be an extension target. Both Welington Castillo (White Sox, 1/$7.75MM + option) and Russell Martin (Blue Jays, 1/$20MM) could be moved to save at least some of the remaining cash owed and to clear the way for younger options on both rosters. It’s plenty imaginable that the Red Sox will do some trimming, with three catchers (Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez, and Blake Swihart) on hand.

Players Electing Free Agency

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Quite a few players will hit the open market this fall, and they’ll do so by way of varying mechanisms. The end of the regular season triggered a recent wave of free agents, consisting of a certain subset of players — namely, those who were outrighted from 40-man rosters during the season and accepted minor-league assignments at that time despite having the right to elect free agency. Players in that situation are entitled instead to hit the open market at season’s end, if they were not added back to the 40-man roster in the meantime.

As conveyed by Matt Eddy of Baseball America, who also covers quite a few other minor moves, these players have now elected free agency:

Athletics: RHP Raul Alcantara, LHP Danny Coulombe

Blue Jays: RHP Mike Hauschild, INF/OF Darnell Sweeney

Braves: LHP Rex Brothers, RHP Miguel Socolovich

Cardinals: LHP Tyler Lyons

Indians: RHP Evan Marshall, RHP Alexi Ogando

Mariners: RHP Christian Bergman, LHP Ross Detwiler, RHP Mike Morin, INF Zach Vincej

Marlins: OF JB Shuck

Mets: RHP Chris Beck, OF Bryce Brentz, RHP Scott Copeland, OF Matt den Dekker, INF Ty Kelly

Nationals: LHP Tommy Milone, OF Moises Sierra, RHP Carlos Torres

Orioles: RHP Jhan Marinez, INF Luis Sardinas

Padres: OF Matt Szczur

Phillies: INF Trevor Plouffe

Pirates: LHP Buddy Boshers, RHP Casey Sadler, RHP A.J. Schugel

Rangers: C Juan Centeno, LHP Anthony Gose, RHP Drew Hutchison, INF Tommy Joseph, RHP Chris Rowley

Rays: INF Brandon Snyder, RHP Ryan Weber

Reds: C Tim Federowicz, RHP Kevin Quackenbush

Tigers: INF Dixon Machado, RHP Jacob Turner

White Sox: RHP Tyler Danish

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/8/18

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We’ll track the day’s minor moves in this post:

  • The Brewers have released right-hander Hiram Burgos, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The 31-year-old debuted in the majors in Milwaukee back in 2013, but hasn’t been back since. Now 31 years of age, Burgos will presumably end up with another organization for the first time in his professional career. He had re-signed with the club entering the year but was never able to get on the bump for game action. In parts of six seasons at Triple-A, Burgos owns a 4.43 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 361 2/3 frames.

Silver Linings: American League West

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In our Silver Linings series, we’re checking in on the most promising developments for non-contending teams during an otherwise disappointing 2018 season. We’ll finish it out with the American League West.

[Previous “Silver Linings” Posts: AL Central, NL Central, NL East, AL East, NL West]

With the Astros back on top on the American League West and the Athletics gearing up for a Wild Card date with the Yankees, that leaves three clubs nursing their wounds. Here are the silver linings from the division…

Mariners – A promising core

And no — not the core they once boasted, which featured an in-prime Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Felix Hernandez and an aging-but-still-productive Nelson Cruz. This Mariners team won 89 games largely in spite of that group (Cruz being the exception), as Cano was suspended 80 games while Seager and Hernandez had the worst seasons of their still-excellent careers.

Instead, it was Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Edwin Diaz, James Paxton and Marco Gonzales who carried the Mariners for much of the season. At 30 years old next month, Paxton is by far the oldest of that bunch, meaning the Mariners should have a good chunk of each player’s prime left.

Haniger and Segura turned in star-caliber performances on the season as a whole (even if each slumped late in the year). Both were deserving All-Stars. Diaz set a franchise record with 57 and posted a preposterous 15.2 K/9 mark with a 1.96 ERA that fielding-independent metrics actually felt was indicative of some poor luck (1.61 FIP, 1.78 xFIP, 1.49 SIERA). Paxton pitched a career-high 160 1/3 innings with career-best K/BB numbers. Gonzales’ 4.00 ERA doesn’t immediately stand out, but he showed excellent control and was credited with a more encouraging 3.43 FIP and 3.59 xFIP through 166 2/3 innings.

General manager Jerry Dipoto has been widely panned for some of his trades — there’s no getting around the Chris Taylor/Zach Lee swap, for instance — but that’ll come with the territory for virtually any top-level executive (especially one who trades so prolifically). To this point, though, Dipoto & Co. deserve credit for the acquisitions of Haniger, Segura, Gonzales, James Pazos and even veteran Mike Leake (4.36 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.15 xFIP in 185 1/3 innings). Each has yielded positive results thus far. There are payroll problems and aging veterans that complicate things in Seattle, but the Mariners have a nice foundation in place — especially if either Seager or Hernandez can bounce back to some extent.

Angels – Co-Stars

Remember those quaint days this spring when many were wondering if Shohei Ohtani would deliver anything close to the hype — both on and, especially, off the mound? The 24-year-old has laid waste to the doubters of his offensive abilities, even as his season as a pitcher ended in disappointment and the Halos’ team effort crumbled.

It’s hard to overemphasize just how impressive Ohtani has been. He hit .285/.361/.564 with 22 homers and 10 steals in just 367 plate appearances, which was 52 percent more productive than a league-average bat when adjusting for park and league (152 wRC+). Among players with 350 PAs, that wRC+ ranked Ohtani eighth in all of baseball. Still, he won’t be on the mound next year after undergoing Tommy John surgery this week, meaning he’ll be limited to providing impressive work from the plate. That leaves a direct conundrum — how to manage the situation with Albert Pujols — along with gaping hole at the top of the rotation.

Fortunately, the Halos have stockpiled some other star performers to place around centerpiece Mike Trout like the side stones in a ring. Andrelton Simmons is now providing enough offense to rate not “just” as one of the league’s top defenders, but rather as one of the its best overall players. Justin Upton’s .257/.344/.463 slash rated more than 20 percent better than the league-average hitter by measure of stats like OPS+ (122) and wRC+ (124). And 24-year-old rookie David Fletcher held his own with the bat while providing terrific defense at both second base and third base.

The rotation is mired with question marks, to be sure, but the makings of a solid relief corps are there with Blake Parker, Jose Alvarez, Cam Bedrosian and up-and-coming Ty Buttrey all giving reason for optimism.

Rangers – Young players on the rise

Frankly, it feels like Jurickson Profar should be older than 25 at this point. The switch-hitting infielder was the Baseball America’s No. 1 overall prospect way back in the 2012-13 offseason — and that was already his third consecutive season drawing Top 100 fanfare. After shoulder injuries wiped out two seasons for the Curacao native, he delivered a forgettable 2017 campaign that called his upside into question. Fast forward a year, and Profar hit .254/.335/.458 with a career-high 20 homers and 10 steals while appearing at five different positions.

It’s not just Profar, either. Rougned Odor signed a $49.5MM extension prior to the 2017 campaign and promptly faceplanted with an abysmal .204/.252/.397 slash last season. This year, however, Odor rebounded to the tune of a .253/.326/.424 with 18 homers, a dozen steals and radically improved defensive numbers at second base — all while nearly doubling his previous career-high walk rate.

Perhaps no Texas youngster shined brighter than emergent closer Jose Leclerc, though. The 24-year-old reined in last season’s ghastly 7.9 BB/9 mark and managed to up his strikeout rate in the process. Leclerc posted 57 2/3 innings of 1.56 ERA ball in 2018, averaging 13.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 while allowing just one home run along the way. His 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate ties him with Craig Kimbrel for the fifth-best among qualified relievers, trailing only Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Blake Treinen and Ryan Pressly. Controlled through 2022, Leclerc could either be a long-term piece or, if he can sustain his success a bit longer, the the type of power arm for which opposing teams would surrender a king’s ransom on the trade market.

Joey Gallo, meanwhile, clubbed 40 homers with his typical brand of absurd strikeout totals. Ronald Guzman swatted 16 home runs in an uneven debut season. Nomar Mazara had his best season to date, even if he’s yet to achieve the stardom many expected. The Rangers’ 2019 rotation looks like a disaster waiting to happen, but their bats — even veteran Shin-Soo Choo turned back the clock with an excellent 2018 — and their otherworldly young closer give fans something to look forward to next year.

Shohei Ohtani Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Oct. 1: Ohtani’s surgery was performed today, tweets Maria Guardado of MLB.com.

Sept. 25: Angels starter and DH Shohei Ohtani will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, the club announced to reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). While the outcome was expected, it’s nevertheless significant for a player who has emerged this year as an unprecedented dual threat.

Renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the procedure. Ohtani will almost certainly not return to the mound until the 2020 season. Of course, the expectation is that he will continue to function as a hitter for the Angels in 2019.

It’s extremely disappointing to see Ohtani’s first season in the majors draw to a close with surgery awaiting. That said, his continued excellence as a hitter since being shut down as a pitcher certainly leaves plenty of cause for continued excitement, even during his TJ rehab.

Ohtani will be ready to hit far before he’s ready to pitch, of course, so he and the Halos anticipate that he’ll be a full part of the roster next season. (Whether he’ll be ready by Opening Day is, however, not yet certain.) Once he’s ready to do both, Angels GM Billy Eppler recently made clear, he’ll go right back to functioning as a hybrid weapon unlike any other in baseball.

Of course, it’s also worth remembering that damage to Ohtani’s ulnar collateral ligament was evident before he joined the Angels over the winter. When new damage arose in the middle of the 2018 season, Ohtani tried a surgical alternative. But he went down again after ramping back up, making TJS an all-but-foregone outcome.

Ohtani is still putting the finishing touches on his season at the plate, but currently sports an eye-popping .280/.361/.564 slash with 21 home runs in 347 plate appearances. While he only has ten MLB starts under his belt, the 24-year-old has shown ample ability in that area as well. Through 51 2/3 innings, he posted a 3.31 ERA with 63 strikeouts against 22 walks.

With Ohtani on the shelf, and Garrett Richards slated for free agency after another Tommy John surgery of his own the Angels’ rotation is now officially on the look for significant help. The top rotation options heading out of the 2018 season appear to be Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, and Jaime Barria.

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