Theo Epstein Discusses Cubs’ Offseason Plans
Putting a wrap on the 2017 season, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke with the media today (as covered by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago, among others).
While the Cubs did not quite live up to expectations — the team won *only* 92 games and did not return to the World Series — Epstein suggests that any failure is only relative to the lofty standards the organization now carries. The team’s competitive window is still fully open, he argues, saying that the Cubs are “really well positioned for the future.”
That said, it’s tough to deny that the roster showed more weak points than had been anticipated — a subject also addressed today by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. With several key pitchers heading to free agency, some bullpen failings, and questions in the outfield, it seems there could be an opening for relatively significant change this offseason.
Epstein hardly promised a shake-up, but did suggest a willingness to consider trading from a stock of players that may have been seen as mostly off-limits in the not-so-distant past:
“Sooner or later you reach a point where you have to strongly consider sacrificing some of that depth to address needs elsewhere on the club. We’re entering a phase where we have to be really open-minded to that if it makes the overall outlook of the team and organization better.”
That said, the approach doesn’t seem to be one where the Cubs will select a particular player and shop them around. Rather, Epstein suggested, the organization intends to take in a wide array of possibilities — “pursue all avenues to get better” — and consider each opportunity on its own merit. Generally, he said, the team is “prepared to make some tough choices” and is interested in exploring ways to address “obvious deficits” from those areas of “real surplus.”
It’s not to difficult to guess at some of the broad strokes here. Beyond the untouchable superstars, the team has a variety of talented young position players — Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber, most prominently — that overlap to some degree with other members of the roster. And the Cubs believe they have more starting-caliber players than can receive regular time on one roster. Given the need to replace starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, as well as to find a new closer and add some “pure strike throwers” in the bullpen (as Epstein put it), the stage could be set for some interesting trade chatter over the winter.
NL Notes: Baker, Kelley, Lynn, Bell
The Nationals sparked some backlash today with the surprising decision not to retain manager Dusty Baker. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was particularly incensed, slamming the organization not only for the substance of the move, but also for leaving Baker dangling in the wind for the past week-and-a-half. Baker tells Nightengale that he’s “surprised and disappointed” after leading the team to two-straight NL East titles but also failing to advance past the NLDS. It’s worth keeping some perspective here: after all, Baker is a highly-compensated professional and this is a results-oriented business. But the move does seem somewhat confusing from the outside and certainly fits the ever-growing record of questionable interactions between ownership and managers in D.C. Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post also examined the risk the club is taking with the switch.
More from the National League:
- Nationals reliever Shawn Kelley has received a stem-cell injection in his troublesome right elbow, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweets. The hope is that the treatment, combined with a full offseason of rest, will allow Kelley to return at full health next year. He is not expected to require any surgery at this time. Kelley, who is slated to earn another $5.5MM in the final season of his contract, somehow allowed a dozen home runs in just 26 innings in 2017 while also maintaining a 13.5% swinging-strike rate. Given his history of quality relief work, perhaps there’s still hope that he can contribute once again in 2018.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tackled a host of interesting Cardinals questions in his latest chat, some highlights of which are available here. Of particular note, he says it’s no secret that righty Lance Lynn is going to seek a big contract — something on the order of Jordan Zimmermann‘s $110MM guarantee — in free agency. While St. Louis has interest in retaining Lynn, there doesn’t seem to be much chance of it entering that stratosphere to do so. (Whether any other teams will do so seems questionable, too.)
- Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost bench coach David Bell to the Giants, where he’ll serve as the VP of player development. That could kick off some other changes for these two organizations, both of which are looking to bounce back from postseason misses in 2017 (and a much more serious collapse in the case of San Francisco). Bell had worked in the St. Louis dugout since 2014. The twelve-year MLB veteran spent time with both organizations during his playing career.
Jake Petricka Undergoes Elbow Surgery
White Sox righty Jake Petricka underwent a nerve transposition and flexor tendon debridement in his right elbow, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune writes. He’ll require about three to four months of rest and rehab before he’ll be able to resume throwing.
Petricka, 29, compiled 26 strikeouts against just six walks in his 25 2/3 innings of action this year, though he also coughed up twenty earned runs on 39 hits while battling through elbow issues. That wasn’t quite the year he hoped for after missing much of 2016 following hip surgery.
The South Siders paid Petricka $900K in 2017 and project to owe him about $1.1MM for the season to come. That’s not a lot of scratch for a pitcher that turned in 144 1/3 frames of 3.24 ERA ball through his first three seasons in the majors, though it remains to be seen whether the Sox will want to promise a 40-man spot to Petricka — particularly if there’s any concern as to how he’ll bounce back from the surgery.
Whether or not Petricka is retained, the organization will be in need of quite a lot of bullpen depth after dealing away multiple veterans over the course of the 2017 campaign. Just how much payroll the organization intends to commit in what’s sure to be a losing season isn’t yet known, but it’s a good bet that the team will bring in a handful or two of experienced hurlers to battle for roster spots in camp — while also keeping an eye out for waiver claim and Rule 5 opportunities.
Agency Changes: Chad Green, Dinelson Lamet
As always, we track agency changes here at MLBTR in our Agency Database. Here are the latest notable changes in player representation, both courtesy of ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links):
- Yankees righty Chad Green is moving his business to Frontline, per the report, joining a pitching-heavy client list led by Dallas Keuchel and Andrew Miller. Though he showed promise with intriguing strikeout and walk numbers in 2016, Green’s 2017 campaign came as an eye opener. In 69 frames over 40 appearances, he punched out 13.4 batters per nine while walking just 2.2 and carrying a sterling 1.83 ERA. Green sat at about 96 mph with his average heater and racked up a strong 15.0% swinging-strike rate.
- Meanwhile, intriguing young Padres righty Dinelson Lamet has hired Magnus Sports, an agency known for its long list of clients from Latin America. Among the outfit’s most recognizable players is a trio of notable Yankees (Aroldis Chapman, Gary Sanchez, and Starlin Castro). Lamet exhibited some walk and home run difficulties in his debut season, but also racked up 10.9 K/9 and produced a 4.57 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. If he can build upon that opening work, Lamet could become a key part of a hopeful new rotation core in San Diego.
Official Super Two Cutoff
Super Two status allows certain players to reach arbitration — significantly boosting their earnings — before they achieve three full years of MLB service. Whether or not a player qualifies, which is determined by ascertaining the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — makes a huge difference in their salary not only for the coming season, but also the ensuing years of arbitration.
This year, the service-time cutoff will land at two years and 123 days, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. Players that have accumulated at least that much service time will therefore be eligible for salary arbitration, so long as they spent at least 86 days on the active roster in 2017.
You can find MLBTR’s arbitration projections for the coming offseason right here. Among the players listed there, the Twins’ Eddie Rosario will instead have to settle for the league minimum (with a raise, if any, given at the sole discretion of his team).
Here’s how this year’s cutoff compares to recent years:
- 2016: 2.131
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
It’s easy to see the impact of Super Two status with a few examples. Sam Dyson put up some middling numbers in 2017, but still projects to take home $4.6MM because of his lofty salary starting point. George Springer is expected to earn $8.9MM in his 3+ service-class year because of last year’s Super Two salary (and his outstanding intervening campaign).
The aforementioned Rosario, meanwhile, projected at $3.5MM but will instead likely not even earn one-fifth of that amount for the 2018 season (depending upon the generosity of his employer) since he landed under the line. Meanwhile, players such as Corey Knebel, Maikel Franco, and Felipe Rivero project to top $3MM in earnings. As for 2016 NL MVP Kris Bryant, the Cubs’ controversial decision to keep him off the Opening Day roster in 2015 will still leave the team with an added year of control, but he is projected to bring home a monster $8.9MM salary as a Super Two, perhaps setting the stage for a record-setting run through the arb process.
Daniel Murphy Undergoes Knee Surgery
The Nationals announced today that second baseman Daniel Murphy underwent successful surgery on his right knee. A debridement and microfracture procedure was performed.
It’s not known at this point just how long of a rehabilitation Murphy will require. The team did say that his “rehab will begin immediately and will progress throughout the offseason.”
Obviously, details are not clear at this point; indeed, there was no prior indication that this course of treatment would be required. But Murphy will have at least four months or so to heal before the start of spring camp. For one point of reference, Justin Turner underwent a microfracture procedure at the end of the 2015 campaign and was ready to go for Opening Day the following year.
Murphy, 32, wasn’t quite as outstanding this year as in his first campaign in D.C. But he was plenty effective, posting a .322/.384/.543 slash with 23 home runs over 593 plate appearances. If he can maintain anything approaching those numbers in 2018, Murphy will once again easily be worth much more than his salary — though it’s worth noting that his rate of pay jumps to $17.5MM in the final season of the deal.
Tigers Sign Ron Gardenhire To Three-Year Contract
11:30am: The Tigers have formally announced the hiring of Gardenhire, noting that he has indeed signed a three-year contract with the club.
OCT. 20, 7:40am: The Tigers have scheduled a press conference for 1pm ET today to announce the hiring.
OCT. 19: Ron Gardenhire has agreed to a three-year deal to become the Tigers’ next manager, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). The deal could be announced tomorrow; Detroit’s decision to tab the veteran skipper was first reported earlier today by Ken Rosenthal and Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended).
Detroit will install the widely respected 59-year-old in the dugout in place of Brad Ausmus, whom the club decided not to retain past the present season. Gardenhire previously managed the division-rival Twins and most recently served as the Diamondbacks’ bench coach. He also fought through a diagnosis of prostate cancer earlier this year, returning to help guide the Diamondbacks to a successful season.
At last check, Tigers GM Al Avila had cast a wide net in lining up options. While there was no prior indication that a decision was looming, Detroit obviously decided to go ahead with Gardenhire, perhaps due in some part to ongoing competition with other organizations. Gardenhire was also under consideration for the Red Sox job, though that is expected to go to Alex Cora.
After moving on from Ausmus, who was a rookie skipper when he signed on, the Tigers have indicated a clear preference for a candidate with prior time as a MLB manager. Gardenhire certainly checks that box. He spent thirteen years running things for the Twins, beginning in 2012. That tenure spanned quite a few good years, including a run of six postseason appearances in nine years, though the team’s performance fell off sharply in his final four campaigns.
Gardy ultimately delivered a 1,068-and-1,039 win/loss record during his time in Minnesota, which wrapped up after the 2014 campaign. He failed to guide the team into the World Series and only made it out of the divisional round once despite the run of regular season success.
In any event, postseason considerations likely won’t be much of a factor early in Gardenhire’s tenure with Detroit. The team is only just embarking upon a rebuilding effort that is likely to take several seasons to come to fruition, after all, placing it more in the situation that the Twins found themselves in back in 2011 — the first year of the four-season run of misery. Gardenhire, then, has his share of experience in bringing along younger players through a rebuilding stage. While he ultimately was cut loose in Minnesota, perhaps some of his efforts are beginning to bear fruit there.
It’ll be interesting to see how this relationship works out. Avila had suggested a need for a new approach from a new skipper, but evidently was not referring to a strong sabermetric predilection. Gardenhire brings a reputation as an old-school manager, after all. As Joe Posnanski wrote at the end of his tenure in Minnesota: “Gardy comes from the Tom Kelly school — he was the valedictorian of the Tom Kelly school — where managers grump and demand and instill and bunt too much and occasionally fall in love with limited but gritty players.” That said, Gardenhire is also said to carry a new “openness” to modern analytics after his year with the D-Backs, Morosi tweets. Avila and the Tigers are betting that approach will help foster the growth of a new core and ultimately guide the team back into contention.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
The Pirates stumbled in 2017, but can bring back much the same core group of talent that was expected to support a contender.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Gregory Polanco, OF: $32MM through 2021 (includes buyouts on club options for 2022 & 2023)
- Francisco Cervelli, C: $22MM through 2019
- Starling Marte, OF: $20.5MM through 2019 (includes buyouts on club options for 2020 & 2021)
- Ivan Nova, SP: $17MM through 2019
- Josh Harrison, IF: $11.5MM through 2018 (includes buyouts on club options for 2019 & 2020)
- Daniel Hudson, RP: $5.5MM through 2018
- Sean Rodriguez, IF/OF: $5MM through 2018
- David Freese, IF: $4.75MM through 2018 (includes buyout on 2019 club option)
- Jung Ho Kang, IF: $3MM through 2018 (includes buyout on club option for 2019; will not earn salary unless/until reinstated from restricted list)
Contract Options
- Andrew McCutchen, OF: $14.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)
- Chris Stewart, C: $1.5MM club option ($250K buyout)
- Wade LeBlanc, RP: $1.25MM club option ($50K buyout)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)
- Jordy Mercer (5.095) – $6.5MM
- George Kontos (4.171) – $2.7MM
- Gerrit Cole (4.111) – $7.5MM
- Felipe Rivero (2.162) – $3.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Mercer
Free Agents
[Pirates Depth Chart; Pirates Payroll Information]
The spending complaints constantly nagging Pirates owner Bob Nutting are unlikely ever really to go away. They reached new heights in a disappointing 2017 campaign, amidst a few eyebrow raising decisions, and will once again feature over the winter.
That said, the Pittsburgh franchise’s well-established financial approach gives us a pretty clear idea of what it has to work with in the offseason to come. The Bucs have not yet topped $100MM in Opening Day salaries, landing just shy of that figure in each of the past two seasons. In all likelihood, that’ll be the general target for 2018.
If that’s the case, GM Neal Huntington — who was extended along with skipper Clint Hurdle at the end of the season — is going to have to get creative to bring in any significant outside additions. With around $60MM in guaranteed money, $20MM in expected arbitration commitments, and $14.5MM to pick up Andrew McCutchen’s option, the team is already pushing last year’s Opening Day payroll without accounting for the rest of the roster.
Of course, it may be that the Pirates won’t pursue any major changes in their roster composition. And the team surely feels it already made some allotments for 2018 and beyond with the midseason additions of Sean Rodriguez and George Kontos.
But that’s not to say there aren’t any areas in need of improvement, or paths to changing the team’s composition. As ever, the chief question is utterly simple and endlessly complex: will this be the stage when the Pirates finally trade their franchise icon?
Dealing McCutchen would remove a key player and major gate draw. It could well stir up a hornet’s nest of controversy. But it also represents a potential opportunity to open significant payroll space and acquire quality young talent in one fell swoop.
Cutch only just turned 31 years of age. While he’s clearly no longer the mega-star he once was, he also just wrapped up a strong season in which he put to rest some of the worst fears after a tepid 2016. McCutchen slashed .279/.363/.486 and launched 28 long balls while playing in over 150 games for the seventh time in eight seasons. He did not exactly excel defensively after moving back to center field, but did improve in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Most rivals would likely consider him a target to fill a corner spot.
It’s as difficult as ever to guess at McCutchen’s value. He’s a pure rental now, so it can only be so great. But the appeal is obvious, too: he’s not that old, is a highly respected player with a huge established ceiling, and represents a short-term alternative to an always-risky foray into the long-term contracts of the open market. Huntington & Co. will need to ponder whether there’s a particular combination of cost savings and assets received that will improve the team’s long-term outlook without harming the immediate product too badly. A return centered on lower-level prospects might offer the greatest future value, but could be a difficult move to make with the Pirates having some compelling young talent already playing at the major league level.
If the Pirates seriously consider moving McCutchen, that’d open questions about the outfield mix. Austin Meadows has yet to force his way into the MLB mix, though perhaps the club will anticipate a mid-season arrival from him. Jose Osuna will likely continue to factor, though he’ll need to improve, and the presence of versatile players such as Rodriguez and Adam Frazier will help with a hypothetical transition. Still, it stands to reason that the team would look to add another outfield piece, if not in the deal itself then through a value-seeking free-agent signing.
Otherwise, the position-player mix could largely carry forward in its present state. There could be some excess infielders if Jung Ho Kang finds his way back, though there’s no expectation of that as of yet. Even if he doesn’t, there’s loads of upper-level depth, so the club could even entertain a deal involving Josh Harrison, though that would make for a tough sell and an unfortunate loss of versatility. Some fiddling with the bench is always possible, especially if the Pirates see an interesting name lingering on the open market as Spring Training nears. Mostly, though, the Pirates simply need to hope that Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco restore their trajectories; that Josh Bell expands upon a promising season; that Francisco Cervelli gets healthy; and that the variety of other pieces on hand combine to fill in the gaps.
If there’s one obvious way to attempt to improve on the position-player side, though, it’s likely at short. Jordy Mercer is no longer all that cheap and has not really delivered as a regular at the position in recent years. Pittsburgh could conceivably seek to take advantage of a lack of demand at the position to land Zack Cozart, though he comes with a spotty health record and will be more expensive (and over a longer term) than is Mercer. Buy-low trade targets with future control remaining include Jurickson Profar of the Rangers, Jonathan Villar of the Brewers, and Aledmys Diaz of the Cardinals, though the Pirates have their own rising talents in Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker and therefore might focus mostly on 2018. The Bucs could also conceivably serve as a landing spot for Jose Iglesias or Adeiny Hechavarria, though both figure to cost nearly as much as Mercer. Pittsburgh could instead seek greater value in free agency, which features a variety of veterans — J.J. Hardy and Alcides Escobar among them — that will likely end up settling for affordable deals.
Less likely, but also hypothetically plausible, would be a move to reduce costs behind the dish. The catching position is thin enough leaguewide that some other teams might be willing to take on Cervelli’s contract, even though he has been a below-average offensive producer over the past two years and managed only 81 games in an injury-plagued 2017 season. The Bucs would have alternatives, including giving more time to Elias Diaz, picking up the cheap option over Chris Stewart, and signing one of the many veteran free agents that seem likely to settle for relatively marginal guarantees on short-term deals.
Beyond the ever-present Cutch question, though, perhaps the most intriguing trade possibilities surround righty Gerrit Cole. Though the 27-year-old power pitcher stumbled to a career-worst 4.26 ERA, due largely to a big jump in homers (31), he still carries an ace’s arsenal and a history of quality results. Plus, Cole took the ball for 33 starts and 203 innings last year.
Outside interest will be robust, and could even be strong enough to pique the Pirates’ interest, though moving Cole would arguably create an even tougher hole to patch than any such action regarding McCutchen. Pittsburgh’s rotation produced more hand-wringing than its middle-of-the-pack performance might suggest, and there’s plenty of talent in the mix, but there’s also no question that removing Cole would slice away a good bit of the staff’s upside and floor. Unless Huntington can engineer a slam-dunk deal to acquire a quality and controllable position player who’d step into everyday duties, it’s tough to see how such a transaction could make sense for the Pirates (or any hypothetical trade partners).
Otherwise, the rotation seems likely to closely resemble its 2017 form. Ivan Nova continues to look like a strong value. Jameson Taillon will hope to line up his results with his peripherals after putting testicular cancer in the rear-view mirror. Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams were each useful through over 150 frames in 2017; while their outlooks aren’t crystal clear, both at least profile as affordable sources of innings. And there are other interesting arms pressing for longer looks. Tyler Glasnow leads a list that also includes Steven Brault and Nick Kingham. That’s quite a lot of affordable and flexible (i.e., optionable) depth, even if most of the hurlers have yet to establish themselves fully (or at all) in the majors.
If the Pirates are to look for veteran pitching reclamation projects this winter, Tyler Chatwood has the features (velocity, groundball production) that has held appeal to the team in the past. But he will likely also draw attention from other organizations and will perhaps be more costly than the Pirates prefer given their existing slate of options. But there’s no shortage of other notable players that will be looking for an opportunity — ranging from Chris Tillman to hurlers such as Hector Santiago, Tyson Ross, and Ubaldo Jimenez — and will likely be available for quite a bit less. Should the team find an appealing target at a good price, it’s even possible that it could market one of its controllable starters to address another need.
Generally, though, the front office’s focus could land more on finding relief arms than on bolstering the rotation. The Bucs oversaw the full emergence last year of Felipe Rivero, but otherwise face quite a few questions in the relief corps. Daniel Hudson will hope to improve in the second year of his deal. Kontos gives the team another established arm at a reasonable price. A.J. Schugel produced excellent results, though they outstripped his peripherals, while the club also worked in younger pitchers such as Johnny Barbato and Dovydas Neverauskas. Still, with late-inning stalwarts Juan Nicasio and Tony Watson now out of the picture, there’s clearly room for additions. Just how much cash the Pirates have to dole out will no doubt depend upon how the team decides to proceed in the areas discussed above.
Fan scrutiny of the Pirates is plenty understandable. But those faithful to the Jolly Roger shouldn’t lose hope prematurely, as there’s still the makings of a quality core in place in Pittsburgh. While uncertainty still weighs on the club’s 2018 outlook, it’s also not difficult to imagine several paths to fielding a quality outfit once again.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Giants, Padres, Phillies, More
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
West Notes: LaRussa, Rockies, Beltre
Outgoing Diamondbacks executive Tony La Russa discussed his decision to depart with MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. He says that the club’s baseball decisionmaking is in “great hands” both at the front office and field level, which would be difficult to dispute after a strong season. It’s not yet clear what’s next for the legendary former skipper, though he says he has already been in contact with a few other teams.
Here’s more from out west:
- Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post breaks down the Rockies bullpen options entering the offseason. With Greg Holland, Jake McGee, and mid-season acquisition Pat Neshek all set to hit the open market, there are plenty of questions despite the generally promising performance of the unit in 2017. So long as Colorado is willing to spend near last year’s level (around $130MM), there ought to be some space to fit some reasonably significant salaries to fill out and improve the pen.
- The Rangers dealt away veterans at the 2017 trade deadline, but still don’t appear interested in a full-blown sell-off. Most notably, the team held veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre, who is entering the final season of his contract. GM Jon Daniels says that the club “will be designed with Adrian as our third baseman,” as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to tweet. The Rangers’ head baseball decisionmaker suggested that Beltre and the organization have come to an understanding about the immediate direction, though he also noted that it’s at least theoretically possible the path could change. Beltre again battled through health problems to post an outstanding .312/.383/.532 slash. While he’s owed a hefty $18MM, the contract would still hold quite a lot of appeal to other organizations given Beltre’s sustained excellence. Still, it seems the Rangers will be looking to build around him rather than making a deal, though it remains unclear what kind of capacity the team has for veteran acquisitions.