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Poll: What Will The Indians Do With Jason Kipnis?

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Since his call-up to the majors in 2011, Jason Kipnis has been a fixture in the Cleveland Indians’ lineup, hitting .268/.340/.422 lifetime while playing mostly second base for the Tribe. He’s been worth 19.7 fWAR across 3,737 plate appearances, helping to lead the club to postseason berths in 2013, 2016 and 2017.

But shoulder and hamstring injuries in 2017 limited Kipnis to 373 plate appearances, and were probably at least partially responsible for his putrid .232/.291/.414 batting line en route to a career-low-tying 82 wRC+. Breakout infielder Jose Ramirez took over at the keystone for Kipnis during his recovery from the hamstring injury, and appears to have displaced him at the position.

After an injury to defensive wizard center fielder Bradley Zimmer, Kipnis took over the position upon his return, manning center throughout the latter half of September and the playoffs. However, he posted supbar defense during that time, so Zimmer is most likely slated to reclaim his spot in the outfield in 2018. This would leave Kipnis without an official position in the Tribe’s defensive alignment.

The Indians could move Kipnis back to second base once again and simply shift Ramirez back to third, where he’s a Gold Glove finalist anyway. But Cleveland might not be done giving Yandy Diaz a look at third. They’ve also been giving top prospect Francisco Mejia reps at the hot corner in the Arizona Fall League. The club could very well decide against blocking all that young upside at third base just to return Kipnis to his natural position.

Kipnis could be utilized in a corner outfield position. Assuming his bat bounces back, it would profile fine in left or right, and it’s easy to imagine him playing passable defense at one of the corners. Unfortunately, the Indians already have a glut of left-handed-hitting corner outfielder options that includes Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin, and Michael Brantley, not to mention switch-hitters Greg Allen and Abraham Almonte. To make matters even more complicated, the organization is apparently exploring the possibility of a reunion with lefty Jay Bruce, who became a fan favorite after being traded to the team in August.

If the club declines Brantley’s option and opts not to re-sign Bruce, there would be a bit more space for Kipnis in the outfield. He’d probably be one of their top offensive options out there in that scenario. But if one or both of Brantley and Bruce are brought back in 2018, Kipnis might not fit well into the corner outfield picture.

So with a crowded infield and an outfield that is already lefty-heavy, the Indians might not have a clearly defined role for Kipnis. The former second-round pick is set to make $13.5 million this year via the terms of a contract extension he signed in 2014. That might be more than the Indians are interested in paying for a part-time player. There’s a possibility they could end up exploring trade scenarios. Of course, dealing Kipnis coming off one of the worst offensive seasons of his career would be selling low; the club might not have interest in doing that.

Kip’s newfound positional flexibility could have value to a club that expects to contend in 2018. It’s no secret that Tribe skipper Terry Francona likes having players that can move about the diamond. He could get plenty of at-bats between second base, the outfield and designated hitter. But it’s not a given that Kipnis will rebound offensively, either, and that could leave him without a clearly-defined role on the team in 2018 and beyond.

What do you think? Will the Indians play Kipnis in the infield, move him permanently to the outfield, utilize him in a part-time role or trade him this offseason? (Link for app users.)

Quick Hits: Marlins, Nationals, Astros, Roberts/Hinch

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Dan Greenlee will assume a role as Director of Player Personnel for the Marlins, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports points out that Greenlee is the second executive Derek Jeter has hired away from the Yankees in the past week; Gary Denbo was recently hired as the Vice President of Player Development and Scouting, and is widely credited with helping to turn around the Yankees’ farm system. Anderson also notes that Greenlee is an interesting baseball exec, having a background in law and journalism, and previously worked as a merger analyst for a media organization.

A few more notes from around Major League Baseball on the night of Game 3…

  • The Nationals are likely to exceed the luxury tax threshold once again, says Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. Between guaranteed salaries to ten players, arbitration projections, Matt Wieters’ player option and at least $500K owed to Adam Lind in the form of a buyout on his mutual option, Washington’s guaranteed payroll for 2018 will already top $168MM. That in and of itself doesn’t seem too scary, considering the luxury tax threshold sits at $197MM for the upcoming season. But unfortunately for the Nationals, it isn’t quite that simple. The competitive balance tax takes into account the average annual value of player contracts, and the Nats have worked a lot of deferred money into deals in recent years. According to Cot’s, their payroll is around $193MM for luxury tax purposes. The Nationals, who will be expected to pursue another NL East pennant, will almost certainly spend more than $4MM in free agency.
  • Jerry Crasnick of ESPN details the connection between Hurricane Harvey and the city’s passion for Astros baseball in 2017 in a very well-written editorial. The destruction Harvey left in its wake has had a direct correlation with the city’s inhabitants showing increased Houston pride. Indeed, residents have worn #HoustonStrong shirts to games and showed up to support their baseball team in droves. Crasnick details the efforts that the Astros organization made during the storm to give back to the city, including opening kitchens at Minute Maid Park and reaching out to little league teams whose equipment was destroyed by Harvey. The fans are paying the Astros back with incredible support during the postseason.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts and Astros skipper A.J. Hinch are focused on trying to lead their respective teams to a World Series title. But as Kyle Glaser of Baseball America points out, this isn’t the first time these two men have been on opposing teams. The rivalry between these two skippers goes all the way back to their college days in the PAC-10. Hinch caught a no-hitter against Roberts and the Bruins on May 8th, 1994. However, Roberts managed to steal a base off Hinch at his first opportunity in the majors, during an August 24th, 1999 game between the Indians and the Athletics. Roberts jokingly considers the World Series a “rubber match” between the two.

Sorting the Skills Of The Best Free Agent First Basemen

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Last offseason featured a particularly deep free agent first base crop. Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce and Eric Thames ultimately earned a combined $146MM in guarantees. The 2018 offseason is set to feature yet another deep collection of first base talent, with eight free agents at the position who provided at least 0.8 fWAR to their 2017 teams (note: this list assumes that Adam Lind’s $5MM mutual option will not be exercised). Below is a list of these players sorted by 2017 fWAR, with their respective 2018 season ages indicated in parentheses.

  1. Eric Hosmer (28) – 4.1
  2. Logan Morrison (30) – 3.3
  3. Carlos Santana (32) – 3.0
  4. Yonder Alonso (31) – 2.4
  5. Lucas Duda (31) – 1.1
  6. Adam Lind (34) – 0.9
  7. Mitch Moreland (32) – 0.9
  8. Mark Reynolds (34) – 0.8

But while WAR is a great measure of a player’s overall value, it doesn’t necessarily paint a picture of his unique individual skill set. Each of these first basemen have their own individual strengths and weaknesses, so I’ve decided to take a close look at exactly what these players offer to prospective teams. All stats are from the 2017 season.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

  1. Duda – .279
  2. Morrison – .270
  3. Alonso – .235
  4. Reynolds – .219
  5. Lind – .210
  6. Moreland – .197
  7. Santana – .196
  8. Hosmer – .179

Extra Base Hits Per Plate Appearance (Multiplied by 100):

  1. Duda – 11.81
  2. Morrison – 10.14
  3. Moreland – 9.72
  4. Alonso – 9.60
  5. Santana – 9.45
  6. Lind – 9.30
  7. Reynolds – 8.94
  8. Hosmer – 8.49

Duda and Morrison are the clear leading candidates in the power department, with Hosmer showing a weakness in that department relative to the competition. It’s worth noting that Alonso’s power numbers are propped up by a monster first half; he cooled off significantly after a midseason trade to the Mariners. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Reynolds played half his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field last season. A move to any other ballpark could negatively impact his power numbers. Though Santana had a down year in the power department, his larger body of work suggests he might hit for more extra bases in 2018.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

  1. Santana – 14.1%
  2. Hosmer – 15.5%
  3. Lind – 15.6%
  4. Moreland – 20.8%
  5. Alonso – 22.6%
  6. Morrison – 24.8%
  7. Duda – 27.5%
  8. Reynolds – 29.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

  1. Morrison – 13.5%
  2. Santana – 13.2%
  3. Alonso – 13.1%
  4. Duda – 12.2%
  5. Reynolds – 11.6%
  6. Moreland – 9.9%
  7. Hosmer – 9.8%
  8. Lind – 9.3%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

  1. Santana – 21.4%
  2. Reynolds – 26.1%
  3. Duda – 26.8%
  4. Morrison – 27.7%
  5. Alonso – 27.7%
  6. Hosmer – 30.0%
  7. Moreland – 30.2%
  8. Lind – 32.6%

Santana is by far and away the leading candidate in the plate discipline department, ranking first or second in all three of the above categories. Reynolds and Moreland could probably be considered to have the worst plate discipline of the group, though it’s interesting that nobody outside of Santana appears to distinguish themselves as extremely good or extremely bad relative to the rest of the crop.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

  1. Lind – 83.7%
  2. Santana – 82.1%
  3. Hosmer – 80.2%
  4. Moreland – 75.7%
  5. Alonso – 75.6%
  6. Duda – 74.9%
  7. Morrison – 73.7%
  8. Reynolds – 67.6%

Contact rate is really the only stat necessary to measure this skill, and Lind, Santana and Hosmer use it to set themselves apart. Reynolds, on the other hand, is an outlier on the opposite end; it seems he’d probably be more valuable to teams like the Athletics or Rays that rely heavily on the home run ball rather than stringing together consecutive walks and hits.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per Plate Appearance (Multiplied by 100):

  1. Moreland – 8.2
  2. Morrison- 7.8
  3. Duda – 7.1
  4. Alonso – 6.3
  5. Lind – 6.3
  6. Santana – 5.4
  7. Hosmer – 5.2
  8. Reynolds – 4.9

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

  1. Duda – 42.1%
  2. Lind – 39.4%
  3. Moreland – 38.9%
  4. Morrison – 37.4%
  5. Alonso – 36.0%
  6. Reynolds – 34.5%
  7. Santana – 33.0%
  8. Hosmer – 29.5%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

  1. Lind – 90.6
  2. Duda – 90.3
  3. Hosmer – 89.6
  4. Alonso – 89.2
  5. Moreland – 89.1
  6. Morrison – 88.6
  7. Santana – 88.3
  8. Reynolds – 87.1

Lind, Duda and Moreland would appear to have a leg up on their competition as far as quality of contact. Santana and Reynolds, meanwhile, rank near the bottom in all three categories. It’s fascinating to observe that, although Hosmer ranks poorly in hard contact rate and barrels per plate appearance, his average exit velocity reflects a valuable skill that led to the best batting average of the group this past season (.318).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Left-Handed Pitching:

  1. Morrison – 109
  2. Santana – 106
  3. Hosmer – 99
  4. Reynolds – 87
  5. Moreland – 85
  6. Lind – 81
  7. Alonso – 80
  8. Duda – 72

Pull Rate (Pull%):

  1. Hosmer – 31.3%
  2. Lind – 35.4%
  3. Moreland – 37.2%
  4. Alonso – 40.8%
  5. Reynolds – 44.0%
  6. Duda – 46.2%
  7. Morrison – 46.5%
  8. Santana – 51.2%

Each of this year’s free agent first basemen is a better hitter against right-handed pitching, even the right-handed Reynolds and switch-hitting Santana. The purpose of looking at their wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching is to expose the weaknesses of Lind, Alonso and Duda, all of whom may not be seen as everyday players. In addition, players without the ability to spray the ball about the field are more vulnerable to defensive shifts, limiting their offensive value. Duda is a clear loser in terms of offensive versatility, while Hosmer is a clear winner in that regard. It would seem as though Reynolds and Moreland are neither helped nor hurt by a look into these statistics.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

  1. Hosmer – 1.8
  2. Santana – 0.8
  3. Morrison – 0.0
  4. Lind – [-1.3]
  5. Moreland – [-2.4]
  6. Alonso – [-2.5]
  7. Reynolds – [-2.7]
  8. Duda – [-3.9]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

  1. Hosmer – 27.5
  2. Morrison – 26.9
  3. Santana – 26.7
  4. Moreland – 26.3
  5. Lind – 25.9
  6. Reynolds – 25.9
  7. Duda – 25.7
  8. Alonso – 25.3

Hosmer is the best in this category by a notable margin, while Santana provides some positive baserunning value as well. This category also exposes another blatant weakness for Duda. There’s not much else to say about the baserunning value of this group; the above numbers tell a pretty clear story.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

  1. Moreland – 5.8
  2. Santana – 4.7
  3. Morrison – 2.0
  4. Duda – [-0.1]
  5. Hosmer – [-0.4]
  6. Reynolds – [-1.5]
  7. Alonso – [-3.3]
  8. Lind – [-16.3]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

  1. Santana – 10
  2. Moreland – 10
  3. Morrison – 1
  4. Duda – [-1]
  5. Lind – [-2]
  6. Reynolds – [-4]
  7. Hosmer – [-7]
  8. Alonso – [-9]

If we’re to evaluate defense based on 2017 statistics, Santana and Moreland get a huge boost to their value. Duda and Morrison grade out close to average, while the remaining four players would seem to be defensive liabilities. While Hosmer is a former Gold Glove winner, he hasn’t been great over the past couple of seasons, so it’s unlikely he’ll be paid for his past defensive reputation. Perhaps most notably, the defensive rankings absolutely cripple Lind, such to the point that he may be limited to American League suitors.

While it wouldn’t be terribly difficult to rank these players based on their expected earning potential, each of the above skills could factor into their ultimate landing spots. The unique skill sets of each of these free agents will cause their overall value to increase and decrease relative to each team, and it will be well worth tracking where each of these players ends up.

East Notes: Girardi, Travis, Braves

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Earlier this week, the Yankees announced that Joe Girardi will not return to manage the Bombers next season. But as Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated points out, 53-year-old Girardi might not have lost the job due to the team’s performance or his body of work. The three oldest managers in baseball (Terry Collins, Dusty Baker and Pete Mackanin) all lost their jobs this season, and John Farrell (55) will be replaced by the 42-year-old Alex Cora. This points to a trend in baseball wherein the game is being run by younger players, and it might just be that the ability of younger managers to connect with those youthful stars is being seen as a major asset. Fluency in analytics is also becoming increasingly vital to the manager position. As Verducci also points out, World Series skippers Dave Roberts (45) and A.J. Hinch (43) both fit the bill for this type of “modern manager”. With Girardi lacking the youth and analytic mindset required for the new mold, the Yankees may have simply decided he is no longer relevant in today’s game.

Some other items from around baseball’s Eastern Divisions…

  • Red Sox number four overall prospect Sam Travis received his first small taste of major league action this year. But he didn’t fare as expected in the power department, slugging just .342 in the majors and .375 at the Triple-A level. Alex Speier of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended) writes that he spent a lot of last offseason rehabbing from knee surgery, which may have contributed to his struggles. Still, Travis has been seen in recent years as player with a big-league ready bat who needed to improve his defense at first base, and the former second-rounder’s offensive performance didn’t match the billing in 2017. His vastly improved defense, however, has led the organization to give him a shot in left field in the Dominican League, which could improve his prospect stock headed into next season.
  • The Braves have been denied permission to speak with Royals GM Dayton Moore, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reports. The Braves organization is still reeling after the scandal broke surrounding then-GM John Coppolella, but they won’t have the chance to interview the 50-year-old Moore for the open position. Moore declined to comment on the request, stating that he’s “focused on what we need to do here in Kansas City.” The two ballclubs are in very different stages headed into 2018; the Royals are likely entering a rebuild with many key players set to reach free agency, while the Braves seem ready to come out of theirs and focus on contending. But because Moore signed a contract extension with Kansas City back in 2016, club owner David Glass would need to give explicit permission to any club interested in reaching out to him.

Tigers to Hire Chris Bosio as Pitching Coach

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In a move they were already expected to make, the Detroit Tigers are set to sign former Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio to their staff. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times was the first to tweet that a deal was close, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today has confirmed the news with his own tweet.

Bosio served as the Cubs’ pitching coach for five seasons, including their 2016 title run, before being dismissed last week. During his time with the organization, Chicago’s staff pitched to a 3.81 ERA across 8,693 1/3 innings, good for sixth-best in all of baseball. Starters for the Cubs during that time combined for 78.1 fWAR. Bosio coached Jake Arrieta during his Cy Young-winning season, and the club also saw fantastic overall results from pitchers like Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks during his tenure with the organization.

Bosio will join the Tigers during a massive teardown, and will be tasked with helping to develop a lot of young players. While Tigers starters as a group have been one of the best in baseball across the past five seasons, their relievers during that span are the worst in baseball by combined fWAR (10.5) and xFIP (4.25). Detroit will hope to turn their bullpen around in a big way with Bosio’s help.

The Tigers are set to open the 2018 season with a group that includes former Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer, along with Daniel Norris, Jordan Zimmerman and Matt Boyd, along with a relief staff that hasn’t shown much promise outside of Shane Greene. The fact that the Tigers hired Bosio so quickly speaks to their confidence in him. Based on his body of work with the Cubs, it seems as though the Tigers have made a fantastic hire at the outset of a long rebuilding process.

2017 Opt-Out Clause Update

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Our most recent opt-out clause update was over two months ago, and plenty of things have changed since then. With the exception of up to two more potential starts for Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, all players with opt-out clauses are done playing for the season. Here’s an update on the decisions these eight players are facing within three days of the final game of the World Series…

Will Opt Out

  • Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Last week, Holland and agent Scott Boras decided that Holland will decline his player option. The news was first reported by Jon Heyman of FanRag, but was already widely expected after a season during which the right-handed closer pitched to a 3.61 ERA with 41 saves for Colorado during the regular season. Holland did fade a bit down the stretch, including a disastrous August during which he posted a 13.50 ERA and allowed a whopping .667 opponent slugging percentage (perhaps due to a drop in velocity). However, Boras blames some of that on fatigue in his first full season back from Tommy John, and there could be some truth to that argument. In any case, he finished strong, posting a strong 1.86 ERA to go along with a 11.17 K/9 in the season’s final month. He’ll likely be issued a $17.4MM qualifying offer, but it’s hard to believe he would accept an amount so close to his player option; it’s a good bet that Holland will reach the open market.

Likely To Opt Out

  • Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Back in late September, Castillo declined to comment on the decision ahead of him. But following a fantastic season during which the O’s catcher hit .282/.323/.490, hit 20 homers in just 365 plate appearances, contributed great defense and improved his pitch framing significantly, Castillo seems all but certain to decline his one-year player option. He mentioned to Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun that he enjoys playing in Baltimore, but if he does, expect it to be on a much more lucrative contract.
  • Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): Since our last update, Upton was traded from the Tigers to the Angels and crushed his way through the end of the season with a .253/.350/.578 batting line and 13 home runs between the two clubs. Fielding metrics remain high on him, and he’s still just 30 years old. While an average annual salary of $22MM might already be fairly close to what he’d earn on the open market, it makes plenty of sense to think he could get a contract longer than four years. The Angels have already been engaged in dialogue with Upton, which seems to suggest that they feel the need to convince him to remain in Los Angeles; that alone might imply that they expect him to opt out. It’s worth noting that he could end up on a more complete team than the Angels as well, which might be added incentive for him to test the market for his services.
  • Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s dominant second half (3.77 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.73 K/9, 1.65 BB/9) has continued into a dazzling trio of postseason performances through which he’s allowed just two runs over 20 innings while striking out 18 and holding opponents to a .145 batting average. It looked all but certain at the onset of the season that Tanaka would remain on his current deal, but a surge since the All-Star break has helped boost his earning power significantly. Though Tanaka’s 4.74 ERA during the 2017 regular season looks ugly, much of that can be attributed to a monstrous 21.2% homer/fly ball ratio that’s 5 points higher than his career average. Tanaka is only 28 years old, so at this point it looks as though he would be well-served to opt out of the remaining three years on his deal, or at least leverage his opt-out clause into more guaranteed years from the Yankees.

Unlikely To Opt Out

  • Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): Although Chen was at least able to take the field again since our last update, it would make no sense for him to walk away from the remaining dollars on his deal. The lefty tossed 33 innings across five starts and four relief appearances in September, pitching to a decent 3.82 ERA, but that small sample certainly won’t be enough to establish the value needed to exceed $52MM in guaranteed money. Questions about the health of his elbow only make things worse.
  • Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Nothing to see here. Since our last update, Wieters has somehow played even worse. From mid-August through September, Wieters batted .172/.274/.253, good for a wRC+ of just 41. We expect it won’t take long for the Nats backstop to exercise his option.
  • Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): Even when healthy, Cueto wasn’t his usual self in 2017. His 4.52 ERA and 3.24 BB/9 were the highest marks he’s posted since his rookie season with the Reds in 2008. His 34.6% hard contact rate was a career high, and he allowed 1.34 HR/9 despite pitching in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. He’s on the wrong side of 30, and is now surrounded by questions about the health of his arm. Going into 2017, it seemed as though Cueto would be a good bet to opt out, but now it seems all but certain he’ll remain in San Francisco for the time being. If that wasn’t enough, Cueto addressed his opt-out clause back in late August, stating that “My whole mentality has been for me to stay here,” (hat tip to Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group).

Will Not Opt Out

  • Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): After a season during which he pitched to a 5.38 ERA and was valued below replacement level, Kennedy does not plan to opt out of his current deal. He went as far as to tell Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that “it would be pretty stupid” if he did. “You don’t go to the free-agent market pitching how I’ve been. No one is going to want that,” Kennedy candidly admitted. The Royals right-hander is 33 years of age and has been bad in his first two years with the Royals, at one point prompting Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron to calculate his negative trade value. During that time, he’s allowed hard contact 38.8% of the time and posted a 5.08 FIP.

NL Notes: Braves, Bosio, Righetti

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The Braves are in an unfavorable position headed into the offseason. John Coppolella has already resigned due to a breach of MLB’s rules regarding the international players market, leaving a dark cloud hovering over the organization and rumors swirling as to whether or not John Hart will remain with the organization. Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes about some of the inconveniences the organization faces due to this uncertainty. Because the Braves don’t know who will be “steering the ship”, as Bowman puts it, the club cannot yet decide on its direction for the upcoming winter. Decisions such as R.A. Dickey’s contract option and potential trades to clear a spot for top prospect Ronald Acuna are floating in baseball operations limbo. In the meantime, director of player personnel Perry Minasian and assistant general manager Adam Fisher have scrambled to learn as much as they can about the club’s assets and needs, having been with the organization for just one month. The club will hope for answers on Hart’s future in Atlanta sooner rather than later in order to gain clarity on the club’s direction for the offseason.

More news from around the National League…

  • The Cubs have dismissed longtime pitching coach Chris Bosio, according to a tweet from Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Robert Murray of FanRag sports later confirmed the news. Bosio had been the club’s pitching coach since 2012, including earning a World Series ring with the club just last season after guiding the Cubs pitching staff to a 3.15 team ERA. Murray names Jim Hickey as a potential candidate to fill Bosio’s role.
  • Earlier today, Nightengale also tweeted that the Giants dismissed pitching coach Dave Righetti, shifting him to a role in the front office. Murray was able to confirm the reassignment of Righetti through his own sources. Righetti had been the pitching coach in San Francisco for 17 years, making him the longest-tenured pitching coach in major league baseball before his reassignment, as well as the longest-tenured pitching coach in all of Giants history. Murray notes that the club’s 4.50 ERA in 2017 can’t all be blamed on Righetti; ace Madison Bumgarner missed a large portion of the season due to a shoulder injury sustained in a dirt bike accident. According to a later tweet by Jon Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, Righetti will serve as a special assistant to GM Bobby Evans. Shea also adds that bullpen coach Mark Gardner will also be shifted to a special assignment role in the front office, while assistant hitting coach Steve Decker will take on a special assistant role in baseball operations.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/21/17

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We’ll track the day’s minor MLB transactions here:

  • 70 players have filed for minor league free agency, according to an article by Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The piece is sorted by team, so you can see the latest minor-league transactional details for your favorite ballclub. You can also see which players have been recently released, outrighted and assigned to the Arizona Fall League and various winter leagues. A look at the article is well worth the time for any baseball fan.

Mariners Send Osmy Gregorio To Rays To Complete Ryan Garton Trade

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The Seattle Mariners will send shortstop Osmy Gregorio to Tampa Bay, according to a tweet from Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Gregorio will be the Player to be Named Later in the trade that sent left-hander Anthony Misiewicz and infielder Luis Rengifo to the Rays in exchange for right-hander Ryan Garton and catcher Mike Marjama.

Gregorio has played 101 games over the past two seasons between Seattle’s Rookie and Low-A minor league affiliates. The right-hander hit just .220/.288/.311 across both levels in 2017, but did manage to steal 15 bases. The 19 year-old international signee out of the Dominican Republic stands at 6-2 and weights 175 lbs.

Garton pitched to a 1.54 ERA across 13 appearances with the Mariners, with seven strikeouts and just one walk. However, his 4.07 SIERA and 4.35 xFIP show him to be a bit worse than his ERA suggests. Marjama collected three hits in nine plate appearances, including one home run in Seattle’s final game of the season.

 

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a somewhat average first half, the Cincinnati Reds collapsed after the All-Star break and ultimately finished last in the NL Central. The result was a second consecutive 68-94 record and a fourth consecutive losing season. The organization will now need to answer some tough questions, including what they’ll do to improve a historically bad pitching staff, and whether or not they ought to try and sell off some established players like Billy Hamilton.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Overview

With about $68.7MM tied up in payroll commitments for the upcoming season, along with $18MM in projected arbitration salaries, the Cincinnati Reds face limited retooling options for their 2018 roster. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, it seems as though the small-market Reds have more holes to fill on their roster than space in the budget. Top prospect Nick Senzel is likely to contribute at some point next season (according to comments made by GM Dick Williams), but he’d only fill a hole in the lineup left by Zack Cozart, who will either depart or become expensive to retain. Within a fiercely competitive division that includes four other teams pushing to contend, it’s unlikely that a few cheap patches will vault the Reds into contention within the NL Central.

Williams has stated that the team is interested in discussing a new deal with Cozart, but the Reds won’t be the only team vying for his services. The Rays, Royals, and Padres are all in need of a shortstop for the long-term. The Orioles could take a look as well, considering incumbent Tim Beckham’s horrid September and relative uncertainty. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in using him at second base as well. His .297/.385/.548 slash line this past season and solid defense made Cozart the fourth-most valuable shortstop in baseball by fWAR. Even if the Reds are willing to shell out the cash needed to keep their All-Star shortstop, there’s still the chance he’d rather play with a more likely contender. If Cozart ends up elsewhere, former top prospect Jose Peraza seems like the best bet to take his place at short.

The first decision the Reds will need to make on Cozart this offseason will be whether or not to issue him a $17.4MM qualifying offer. The rules are different overall this season, but the implications for Cozart and the Reds would likely remain the same. Because the Reds received revenue sharing in 2017, they would gain a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the 2018 draft next June, if Cozart signs a contract with another team worth at least $50MM. The additional pick (and corresponding slot money) would be a great asset to the club’s rebuild. But for the Reds and their limited payroll space, $17.4MM could end up severely handcuffing them in a non-contending season. That salary, along with guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections and league minimum salaries for the rest of the roster, would push their payroll north of $111MM for 2018, which would fall just $4MM short of their 2015 club record payroll. Such a high payroll could hurt the organization’s capacity to fill other holes on the roster through free agency. With Peraza waiting as a shortstop option with some upside, there’s at least a small chance the Reds could decide not to take the risk of giving Cozart a QO.

Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan should be healthy enough in time for spring training to join Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey in a rotation that struggled mightily last year; Reds starters allowed the most homers in baseball and finished with the second-highest ERA and walk rate. Robert Stephenson, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, Tim Adleman, Amir Garrett and top prospect Tyler Mahle are internal options for the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds don’t sign anyone. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll be involved in the bidding for a top-tier starter due to their limited payroll space. There’s a chance they could give a three- or four-year contract to a number two or three starter type, but even that seems like a stretch given the risks involved and the fact that they aren’t likely to make the playoffs in the near future. Instead, they might end up exploring veteran options like Jaime Garcia and Andrew Cashner who have some upside and could eat innings for Cincinnati on less expensive contracts.

Outside of Raisel Iglesias, the Reds’ bullpen is still a disaster. After being so bad that they literally set records in 2016, their relievers combined to post the fourth-worst ERA in the majors this past year. 16 relievers pitched at least ten innings for Cincinnati this season, and nobody outside of Iglesias contributed more than 0.50 Win Probability Added (WPA). They’re likely to sign a couple of veterans in free agency, but it’ll be like trying to cover a bullet wound with a band-aid. It’s likely that we’ll see the Reds once again churn through a large number of relievers in hopes that someone will develop into a reliable setup option. Michael Lorenzen will be worth watching; he showed some promise as a multi-inning reliever before collapsing to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in the second half.

Even the lineup isn’t a true strength. Cincinnati finished middle of the pack in most offensive categories, even while playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Most of that lineup will be coming back, but it seems like the Reds will have to hope that high-pedigree hitters Peraza and Jesse Winker can take big steps forward. Even then, it’s not a sure bet that Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler will be able to replicate their 2017 breakout performances. On-base engine Joey Votto will anchor the lineup, but they’d need a lot to break right around him in order to consistently keep up with the runs their pitching staff is likely to allow.

Should the Reds decide to double down on their rebuild, they do have some assets that could help them further strengthen their farm system. Billy Hamilton and Gennett become free agents after the 2019 season. Neither is likely to play October baseball with the Reds before then; many of Cincinnati’s best prospects are still at least two years away, and the money owed to Bailey won’t make things easy on their payroll during that time. I already wrote about a few potential trade partners for Hamilton. Finding a partner for Gennett wouldn’t be too difficult; he’s capable of playing second, third and left field and is coming off the best offensive season of his career (though his continued struggles against lefties could limit his market).

Iglesias is another piece who could bring back a significant haul… recent deals for high-end relievers like Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Ken Giles have all brought back top 100 prospects to the selling teams. Though Iglesias hasn’t yet established himself to the level of Miller or Chapman, it’s easy to see him fetching a return similar to that of Giles.

Breakout infielder Eugenio Suarez could fetch a good return as well. However, since Iglesias and Suarez are both under control for another three seasons, they’re less likely to be traded. Joey Votto could be a trade asset, but his contract has a full no-trade clause, and he’s plainly stated that he doesn’t plan on waiving it.

There’s certainly no guarantee that the Reds will end up trading away Hamilton or Gennett. But if they do, they could look to fill holes in the center and the infield. Phil Ervin and Dilson Herrera are next on the depth chart respectively, but there are some free agent fill-in options as well. Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis are examples of free agent center fielders that might get a close look should Hamilton change uniforms. There are a few free agent veterans that could be candidates to fill in as a stopgap at second base until Senzel is ready to take a spot on the big league roster if the team decides to move Gennett, but it seems more likely they would look at internal options or waiver claims.

One big question for the Reds this offseason is whether or not they’ll attempt to unload Bailey’s contract. It’s likely they’d need to eat a significant portion of it even if they do manage to trade him, but it’s possible that a big-budget team might be willing to take a chance on the expensive right-hander. The Phillies, for example, have a lot of payroll space and could afford to take a chance on Bailey rebounding and reestablishing some value. However, it would be difficult to convince any team to take on more than $10MM of his contract. With his value at a low point, the Reds might be best served to open the season with him in the rotation, and hope he can bounce back a bit before the trade deadline. At the very least, he’s better than most of the internal options behind him, and they’d likely spend at least some money on a free agent starter if they traded him, anyway.

It’s difficult to imagine the Reds making any major splashes in free agency. They’ll might sign one or two cheap veteran relievers, but that’s not going to simply fix their bullpen. Perhaps they’ll explore the market for starting pitchers, but unless they manage to retain Cozart, they probably won’t dole out significant money to land a big-name player. Instead, we’ll probably see them make some pitching acquisitions via waiver claim and maybe even the Rule 5 Draft, the latter depending on whether or not they choose to sell off some key pieces.

While the odds are stacked against the Reds posting a winning season in 2018, there are some high-end prospects in their minor league system that are worth being excited about. The next few seasons could prove tough for Cincinnati fans if the Reds choose to have a fire sale, but there’s plenty of upside in the organization, both at the major league level and down on the farm. So, will the Reds tear down their roster even further to supplement that talent? If not, to what extent will they attempt to push through their disadvantages in an effort to win? The Reds’ offseason will be a fun one to track.

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