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AL East Notes: Rays, Jones, Tanaka

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In a fascinating article about the potential of a new Rays ballpark in Tampa Bay, Steve Contorno of the Tampa Bay Times gives insight into property trading as a method for acquiring land on which to build a new stadium. The mechanism is fairly simple at its core; Hillsborough County would trade parcels of valuable government-owned land near the downtown area to private property owners in exchange for their land in the Channel District-Ybor City area, where the county would like to build a new stadium. County Attorney Chip Fletcher confirmed with the Tampa Bay Times that the county is looking into these trades as a way to lower the cost of acquiring new property for a ballpark. Contorno’s piece offers a deep look into all the factors the county must consider when deciding whether this method truly makes sense from a business perspective. Rays fans (and Tampa Bay taxpayers) might enjoy learning about the complexities of the situation Hillsborough County faces.

More from around the American League’s Eastern Division…

  • While much has been made of stud third baseman Manny Machado’s potential exit from the Orioles after 2018, Rich Dubroff of PressBoxOnline.com examines the situation of another O’s icon in his final year; center fielder Adam Jones. Jones has manned center for ten consecutive years in Baltimore, thanks to a six-year, $85.5MM extension that made Dan Duquette’s front office look brilliant. Because Jones is a leader in the clubhouse and current franchise icon, Dubroff places a heavy weight on the decision Baltimore faces in whether or not to retain him. Jones has been worth 28.8 fWAR as a member of the Orioles’ organization, compiling 248 home runs and 802 RBI across 6,221 plate appearances while posting a .279/.319/.468 slash line, good for 109 wRC+. As of right now, the only guarantees the Orioles have on the books beyond 2018 are those of Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day, the latter two of whom become free agents after the 2019 season.
  • Is Masahiro Tanaka pitching his way off the Yankees roster? That’s the question Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked on Friday. Within three days of the conclusion of the World Series, Tanaka can choose to opt out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. The former Japanese star is strengthening his value with each of his elite postseason starts so far in 2017, but his case for a larger contract goes beyond the postseason alone. While Sherman opines that Tanaka was expected not to opt out before October, that notion seems to entirely ignore the right-hander’s elite second half. After the All-Star break, Tanaka posted a 3.77 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP, with a wicked 10.73 K/9 and 1.65 BB/9. Strong peripheral stats, such as a 2.83 xFIP, point to Tanaka being one of the AL’s best starters during that span. Questions remain about the health of his elbow and his ability to keep the ball in the park, but as things stand right now, it seems likely that Tanaka could earn more than $67MM if he were to opt out and test the open market.

Latest on the Nationals’ Managerial Search

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The Nationals announced on Friday that they will not bring back Dusty Baker as manager for the 2018 season, despite praise from his players and rumblings that the two sides had been discussing a reunion in recent days. In fact, the club intends to replace the entire coaching staff. The decision comes in the wake of yet another tough NLDS loss for a club that fought injuries to many key players in order to grab the NL’s second-best regular season record.

A few other clubs began their managerial search well before the Nationals, and at least one option (Ron Gardenhire, now with the Tigers) is off the table. The Red Sox appear to be nearing the end of their search as well. Another factor that could limit the club’s options is the organization’s pattern with the lengths of their managerial contracts. In the past decade, the Nationals have never been willing to guarantee a manager more than two years at a time, a factor that could be a deal breaker to certain candidates also in the mix for jobs with other clubs.

On Saturday, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported on Twitter that the Nationals have requested permission from the Astros to interview Astros bench coach. Some reports from Boston media outlets say that Cora is already tabbed to manage the Red Sox in 2018, and that the club is simply waiting until after the ALCS to announce the news. A source close to Evan Drellich of NBC Boston even told him, “Not a doubt it is [Cora].” But the invitation to interview with the Nationals could certainly throw a wrench into this rumor.

The 42 year-old Cora played mostly in the middle infield throughout his 14-year major league career, including a 2011 stint with the Nationals in his final year before retirement. Many have spoken highly of Cora’s presence in the clubhouse during that time, which would prove valuable on a Washington team with a lot of young talent on the roster.

 

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

As they continued to build back from a full roster teardown, the Phillies finished the 2017 season with a 66-96 record, good for last in the NL East. But their rebuilding process has begun to bear fruit. Thanks in part to contributions from some exciting young rookies, Philadelphia finished the season strong by posting a winning record in September (15-13). The team is now free of the veteran encumbrances that trailed its last competitive window, so it’ll face some questions on how to allocate financial resources.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $26.4MM through 2021 ($11.5MM club option for 2022, $2.5MM buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart; Philadelphia Phillies Payroll Overview]

The Phillies already announced in late September that Pete Mackanin will not return as manager in 2018, but will instead assume a role in the front office. Part of the organization’s focus this offseason will be to find a replacement manager who can get the most out of a very young group of players as they develop at the major-league level. Based on their record after the All-Star break (37-38), it seems as though the worst could finally be behind the Phillies after five consecutive losing seasons. Whoever GM Matt Klentak hires as Mackanin’s replacement will likely be managing the next contending team in Philadelphia.

In addition to steps forward for players like Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Aaron Nola, the Phillies also saw impressive contributions from many players promoted during the 2017 season. Rhys Hoskins, Andrew Knapp, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams all showed well in their first taste of major-league action, with Hoskins in particular looking like a star. Stud shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford saw some playing time in September as well; it’s widely expected that he and fellow infield top prospect Scott Kingery will make major contributions at some point in 2018. Put simply, a major-league club that saw a lot of success from young players this year will see even more reinforcements next season. It’s also worth wondering whether the Phillies will make a push to extend some of these young players. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already mentioned Nola as an extension candidate. Beyond him, Altherr, Hoskins and Williams have all shown enough talent to be worth a look.

As the youth movement reaches its peak in Philadelphia, the payroll has reached its valley. The only contract on the books for the Phillies in 2018 is that of Herrera, who stands to make just $3.35MM. They owe $3.5MM more in the form of buyouts and debts to former players, for a total of less than $6MM guaranteed dollars. Beyond that, only five of their players are even eligible for arbitration, and most of them are either potential trade fodder or non-tender candidates. Given that the Phillies have averaged over $144MM in payroll over the past seven seasons, a big decisions facing the Phillies this winter is how they ought to allocate their dollars. It’s worth mentioning that they’ve got the payroll space and prospect depth to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, should the organization decide he’s a good fit. It will be interesting to see whether they give out any long-term contracts to free agents this season, or opt to make shorter commitments now and wait until next season when the market is flush with high-end talent. They’ll be one of the few teams who’ll be able to afford the services of 2018 free agent juggernauts like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon, any of whom might be worth waiting to negotiate with.

It’s possible that one or both of Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez will open the 2018 season in a different uniform. Galvis stands to make around $7.4MM in arbitration this offseason. Rather than pay that hefty figure for a shortstop with a .287 career OBP, the Phillies would probably prefer to see what they have in top prospect J.P. Crawford. While Hernandez is still under control for three more seasons, the Phillies will likely try to get a look at Kingery at some point in 2018. This could make Hernandez a potential trade asset as well, if the right offer comes along. With such a minuscule payroll, however, they certainly won’t face any pressure to move either player.

With a high-upside youngster tabbed for each position on the diamond, the Phillies are most likely to concentrate their financial resources on pitching. Their starters as a group finished in the bottom third of baseball in ERA last season, and their young staff could benefit from having a seasoned veteran in the rotation. They have the money to spend on a top-of-the market starter like Jake Arrieta, if the front office wants to be aggressive, or any other open-market hurler that holds appeal. Another option would be to make a big push for the coveted Shohei Otani. Indeed there are 29 other teams that will be doing the same, but the potential to join an organization with such a bright future could be a draw for the Japanese phenom. The Phillies will probably want to add a couple of veteran arms to their bullpen as well. Adam Morgan had an incredible second half and cemented himself as a clear fixture behind Hector Neris, but overall the relief corps is in need of support.

Philadelphia had some success last year in taking on bad contracts, eating the salaries of those players and then flipping them for prospects. They acquired left-hander McKenzie Mills for Howie Kendrick, and got infielder Jose Gomez along with right-handers J.D. Hammer and Alejandro Requena in a trade that sent Pat Neshek to the Rockies. Mills, Gomez and Hammer all currently rank within the Phillies’ top 30 prospects (via MLB Pipeline), with Gomez leading the way at #16 in the organization. In essence, the Phillies used their financial muscle to “buy” some upside prospects. It’s a sound strategy. If any of these prospects pan out, it will be as though the Phillies used their extra payroll space last year to save money in the future; more cost-controlled players on the major league club means fewer dollars spent on free agents. It’s easy to imagine the club employing the same strategy during the coming season.

Following five losing seasons and a complete teardown of the major-league roster, the Phillies’ farm is stacked. Even after promoting three top-100 overall prospects last season in Hoskins, Crawford and Alfaro, their system still has four more in Mickey Moniak, Sixto Sanchez, Adam Haseley and Kingery. They also own the #3 overall pick in 2018’s June amateur draft. This abundance of talent in the minors will give the Phillies a wealth of options when they decide to make a playoff push, including the ability to use some of these youngsters as trade chips to fill holes on the roster with established major league talent.

As it stands right now, the Phillies will open the 2018 season with Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation. Behind Nola, however, likely follows a messy group of struggling youngsters. Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, Jake Thompson and Nick Pivetta all endured major ups and downs last season. Even if they don’t manage to add an elite starter like Arrieta through free agency, they’ll probably opt to sign at least one or two mid-tier options. Jason Vargas, Scott Feldman, Jaime Garcia, Doug Fister and Andrew Cashner all come to mind as pitchers who could probably be had on short-term contracts.

With veteran Andres Blanco set to depart in free agency, the Phillies will need a backup infielder to open the season. Blanco himself could be brought back at a cheap price, but he performed below replacement level last year. Outside of Kingery, Philadelphia’s farm system doesn’t really have any major league-ready middle infield options. Stephen Drew, Erick Aybar, Danny Espinosa and Eric Sogard are some examples of cheap veterans they could use to fill in around the infield. On the other hand, they might simply opt to make a low-profile minor league signing instead. They could even test their luck with the Rule 5 Draft; they had great success in identifying Herrera in 2014 and could try to strike gold again.

Third baseman Maikel Franco had a tremendously disappointing 2017 campaign, and it might be time to start looking for other long-term options at the hot corner.  Mike Moustakas represents the top option on this year’s free agent market. Todd Frazier is another third baseman they could look into. However, since the Phillies would be considered long shots to contend in 2018, they might be better off giving the 25-year old another chance next season, and explore the free agent market next year if he doesn’t bounce back. At that time, superstars Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson will become available for bidding.

The Phillies will be an interesting team to watch this offseason. They have the financial resources to sign big-name free agents and take on a large contract in a trade, but it’s just as easy to imagine them making only small, short term signings while they continue to evaluate high-upside youngsters at the MLB level. Either way, expect the Phillies to improve on their 2017 record next season. With the wealth of young talent in the organization, the club should be on the rise for several years to come.

NL West Notes: Seager, Rockies, Padres

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Dodgers phenom Corey Seager feels “normal-ish”, according to manager Dave Roberts (via an article by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Seager was injured while sliding into second base during the game in which the Dodgers clinched the NLDS series victory, and hasn’t done any baseball activity since then. Roberts adds that Seager won’t be traveling with the team to Chicago, though that could change under certain circumstances. Regardless, Seager can’t be added to the NLCS roster at this point unless someone on the current roster gets injured. In that case, the player Seager replaces would be ineligible for the Dodgers’ World Series roster, should the team advance that far. The 23-year old Seager batted .295/.375/.479 with 22 home runs during the regular season, and ranked first among all NL shortstops in fWAR. His situation will certainly be worth monitoring closely.

More from baseball’s NL West division…

  • In a mailbag article for MLB.com, Rockies beat writer Thomas Harding points out that Colorado used only eight total starting pitchers this past season, which was incredibly lucky considering they averaged 12 starters per season from 2011-2016. Seven of those eight starters are set to return in 2018, and while they have youth on their side, Harding wonders how the organization will adapt if their luck with pitcher injuries regresses to the mean. The Rockies playoff hopes for the next few years will rest largely on the health and development of their young starters, including Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland.
  • Speaking of mailbag articles for MLB.com, Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell suggests that San Diego’s bullpen-related offseason plans will largely hinge on whether any teams will meet GM A.J. Preller’s asking price on lefty Brad Hand. If Hand is traded, the Padres’ bullpen will likely need a significant overhaul, including some spending on established major leaguers. However, if he isn’t moved and the club is able to retain Craig Stammen, their relief corps may only need a few tweaks for 2018. To say that Hand essentially was the Padres’ bullpen in 2017 isn’t an exaggeration; his 3.89 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranked fourth-best among all relievers in baseball. All other Padres relievers combined for -1.76 WPA, and Stammen was the only other arm in their ’pen to exceed 0.20.

Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade

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After a second consecutive 68-94 season, the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuilding process still has no clear end in sight. Complicating things further for the organization are the facts that they already owe $68.7MM in guaranteed contracts to five players for the 2018 season, and $56.6MM to four players in 2019. Although the organization has shown a willingness to spend in the past, they aren’t exactly a large-market payroll juggernaut, so it stands to reason that the Cincinnati front office is unlikely to spend big across the next two seasons in order to compete for a pennant amidst a highly competitive NL Central division.

Enter Billy Hamilton. A free agent at the end of the 2019 season, the speed demon will probably reach the open market before October baseball returns to Cincinnati. It makes perfect sense, then, that the Reds might seek to explore the trade market for their fleet-footed center fielder.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

The 27-year old’s value is largely tied up in his legs. Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard ranks Hamilton as the second-fastest sprinter in the game (behind Minnesota’s Byron Buxton), while Fangraphs rated his defense third-best among qualifying center fielders in 2017. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his four full seasons at the major league level, and has routinely created runs by through aggressive base running.

The well-known achilles heel of Hamilton’s game has always been his terrible offensive output. Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line across 2,180 plate appearances at the major league level, good for a 71 wRC+ since his promotion in September of 2013.

So, when exploring potential suitors for Hamilton, it makes the most sense to start with teams that have a dire need for a defensive upgrade in center field. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s base running skills aren’t as useful to teams that rely heavily on the home run ball, such as the Rays, Athletics and Yankees.

With the above factors in mind, the Giants could be a particularly good match. AT&T Park’s outfield is particularly large, making it difficult for their hitters to put runs on the board via the long ball. Hamilton’s base running prowess would surely be a great asset to a team that finished dead last in baseball with 128 homers, but ranked 8th-best in contact rate. What’s more, San Francisco center fielders ranked as the third-worst defensive group in all of baseball via Fangraphs’ defensive metric. Hamilton would provide a considerable upgrade over that of the aging Denard Span.

Similarly, the Dodgers’ pitching staff could benefit from having Hamilton manning center field in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, with Chris Taylor sliding to second base. The Royals could be on the lookout for a center field option if they don’t retain Lorenzo Cain. Hamilton could provide an overall upgrade for the Brewers over the strikeout-plagued Keon Broxton, though they’re more likely to see what they have in Lewis Brinson before looking to external options.

Though Hamilton’s lifetime fWAR of 10.6 pegs him as only a slightly above-average player for his major league career, his skill set is unique. He could fill a hole for many major league clubs, and there’s a good chance he could help fortify the Reds’ farm system while they continue to rebuild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Daniel Webb Dies In ATV Accident

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Former White Sox pitcher Daniel Webb passed away due to an ATV accident last night, according to a report from wpsdlocal6.com. Chris Davis, Sheriff of Humphreys County, confirmed the news via telephone.

The Blue Jays selected Webb in the 18th round of the 2009 June amateur draft, but the Kentucky native spent most of his career in the White Sox organization. During his time at the MLB level, he compiled 110 relief innings at the major league level, including 67 2/3 innings in 2014 with a 3.99 ERA. Webb showed promise with a fastball that averaged 96 MPH, but hadn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016.

The White Sox issued the following statement in the wake of the 28-year old’s passing.

“Daniel left many friends within the Chicago White Sox organization, and we are all shocked and stunned by the news of last night’s terrible accident. He was a terrific young man with a full life ahead of him. All thoughts and prayers go to his family and friends as they deal with today’s tragic news.”

MLBTR sends its condolences to Webb’s family and friends during this difficult time.

Poll: How Will The Twins Address Their Rotation Issues?

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After quickly shifting from buyers to sellers at the 2017 trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins’ offense went on an absolute tear during the second half, thanks in part to blazing hot streaks from Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Brian Dozier. The lineup’s offensive storm resulted in a whopping 412 runs after the All-Star break, surpassing even the Indians for most in the American League. They surged up the standings to claim the AL’s second wild card spot, but fell to the New York Yankees in the one-game playoff after starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios gave up a combined seven runs across five innings.

The heartbreaking loss alluded to an overarching theme of the Twins’ 2017 season: the woes of subpar performances from starting pitchers. While Santana and Berrios were actually the team’s most respectable performers during the season, the rotation performed miserably on the whole. Sixteen different pitchers started games for Minnesota. Of those sixteen, only one (Santana) qualified for the ERA title. Only five finished with an ERA below 5.00. Minnesota starters as a group finished in the bottom ten in all of baseball in innings pitched (24th), fWAR (22nd), strikeouts (26th), xFIP (27th), least hard contact allowed (21st), and fewest home runs allowed (23rd).

Without dramatic improvements to the rotation, the Twins have little hope of dethroning the rival Indians as AL Central Champions. However, if they can add pitching reinforcements to an offense that’s intimidating from top to bottom, it’s easy to see a path for them to reach the playoffs again. Adding to their fortunes is a weak division wherein the White Sox and Tigers are in the midst of full teardowns, with the Royals likely to follow suit this offseason.

The problem has the potential to solve itself. Santana and Berrios will both return to their roles in 2018, with Kyle Gibson likely to slot in behind them after performing very well in the second half this past season. LHP Stephen Gonsalves and RHP Fernando Romero both rank as top 100 overall prospects and could potentially see major league action next season. And Adalberto Mejia is at the very least a reasonable back-end starter. If Berrios is able to take another step forward, and one of Gonsalves or Romero emerges as a top-of-the-rotation type, the Twins would certainly be no worse off on paper than most contenders.

But even the highest-rated prospects are never sure bets, and Santana, Berrios and Gibson all have at least a few question marks hovering over them. Meanwhile the free agent market for pitchers is full of high-upside starters who carry tremendous risk. Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta represent the top options on the market, while Masahiro Tanaka and Johnny Cueto can both opt out of their current contracts. Most of these pitchers would likely cost more than the Twins can afford to pay, and all carry significant injury risk. Japanese phenom Shohei Otani would be an incredibly exciting target, but the competition for his services will certainly be fierce. It’s difficult to imagine what the Twins could offer him that other teams cannot. So while it’s certainly possible the Twins could land a high-end starter, a foray into the free agent pool would likely end with the Twins having to settle for an even riskier tier of starters that includes Andrew Cashner, Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, Jason Vargas and a somewhat resurgent Doug Fister.

To say that the trade market for starting pitchers this offseason will be competitive would be an understatement. The top starters in baseball are heavily concentrated on teams with plans to contend next season. Michael Fulmer and Gerrit Cole are examples of solid pitchers who could be made available, but due to heavy demand, the Twins would probably have to fork over at least one of top 30 overall prospects Royce Lewins and Nick Gordon. Both Fulmer and Cole come with injury concerns.

While many teams are in need of rotation help, the Twins’ situation is dire. If the offense can repeat anything close to their late 2017 production, Minnesota will be in the thick of contention all next season. But they absolutely must get significant improvements within the starting five.

How do you think the Twins will address their rotation issues? Vote in the poll and comment below with your ideas.

(Poll link for app users)

Encarnacion Expects To Play Again This Postseason

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According to two tweets (separate links) from beat reporter Jason Beck of MLB.com, Cleveland Indians designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion’s MRI revealed no structural damage. He’s considered day-to-day with a sprained ankle. Encarnacion said he was relieved at the results, having initially feared something much worse. His goal is to get the swelling down with an expectation that he’ll play again this postseason.

Terry Francona had this to say on Encarnacion’s status when he met with reporters today (credit to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, who tweeted an image with the full quote).

“He is, I would say, I don’t know if ’remarkably’ better is a good word, but pretty close. He’s doing much better today. I don’t think he’s going to start tomorrow, but he’s not been ruled out, either. So, we’ll take our time and allow him to continue to get treatment. But if he’s that close to being available, that’s a really good sign. So, we’re obviously not going to do anything roster-wise.”

This is certainly the best scenario the Indians could have hoped for after seeing Encarnacion leave last night’s game with a scary-looking ankle injury. That the Indians don’t plan on making a roster move to replace Encarnacion for the remainer of the series is an encouraging sign that the team truly believes he can get back on the field. The 34-year old veteran led the team with 38 home runs during the regular season and finished second only to All-Star Jose Ramirez in wOBA (.378) and wRC+ (132). His 15.5% walk rate ranked 8th in all of baseball. Any extended absence for him certainly would have been devastating to an Indians team with hopes of a second consecutive trip to the World Series.

It’s expected that All-Star Michael Brantley will take over DH duties if Encarnacion is unable to play in Game 3 against the Yankees on Sunday. Brantley went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts after replacing Encarnacion in Friday’s game.

Encarnacion came to the Indians just last offseason on a three-year, $60MM deal that includes a $5MM buyout on a $25MM team option for 2020. Full details on Encarnacion’s contract can be found here.

 

Poll: Can The Tigers Move Nicholas Castellanos?

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While the Tigers weren’t considered favorites to win the AL Central coming into 2017, they certainly didn’t appear to be candidates to own the worst record in baseball. But slow starts from Justin Verlander and Ian Kinsler, along with the continued decline of other highly-paid veterans such as Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmerman, Victor Martinez and Francisco Rodriguez, led Detroit to their first losing record at the All-Star break since 2010.

By the July 31st trade deadline, the organization had already shipped catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson to the Cubs in exchange for younger players. On the final day of August, they doubled down on their rebuild by moving the large contracts of Verlander and outfielder Justin Upton in exchange for minor leaguers.

One player who survived the fire sale, despite clearing revocable trade waivers, was former top prospect Nicholas Castellanos.

Formerly a third baseman, Castellanos was moved to right field amid concerns about his glove at the hot corner. But while his performance at third was subpar, his work in right field this year was a disaster. In a 173-inning sample, Castellanos racked up -7 defensive runs saved while checking in with a catastrophic -80.5 runs per 150 games by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating. Some of this is the result of lack of experience in the outfield. It’s easy to imagine him improving his glove work to some extent with more training and playing time, but the transition hasn’t exactly been a smooth one to this point.

The real value, of course, lies in his bat. Castellanos smacked 44 homers to go along with a .277/.325/.493 slash line across 1112 plate appearances since the start of 2016, good for a 114 wRC+ during that span. Perhaps his most impressive skill has been his ability to make hard contact; his hard-contact rate sits at an impressive 40.4% over the past two seasons, and his 89.2 MPH average exit velocity during that time ranks 67th among major league hitters who’ve made contact in at least 500 at-bats. Even with subpar defense, his offensive output made him worth close to two full wins above replacement in 2017.

As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag noted when he first broke the news, it’s surprising that Castellanos was never claimed on trade waivers. He only made $3MM this season, and can be controlled for two more years through arbitration. There’s a raise coming, but it shouldn’t be too onerous. Lucas Duda earned a $2.525MM bump after hitting 27 homers and knocking in 73 runs across 554 plate appearances in 2015. Castellanos could probably exceed that increase — he hit 26 homers in 2017, but amassed over 100 more plate appearances and accumulated 28 more RBI than did Duda– though it suggests a reasonable ballpark figure.

Even if Castellanos projects only as a 2-WAR player, he might well cost less than $6MM in 2018 and can be controlled in 2019 as well. It seems as though there is some excess value in his contract, and the Tigers aren’t likely to be contenders over the next two seasons. With all this in mind, it seems probable that the Tigers will try to shop him his offseason.

The tough part about imagining a Castellanos trade, even if you are relatively bullish on his outlook, is that teams don’t often get much in return for league-average position players with this amount of control and at this general price point. When the Nationals traded Yunel Escobar to the Angels before the 2016 season, he had one year and $7MM left on his contract, as well as a $7MM option for 2017. They received Trevor Gott in return, a fireballing reliever who was believed to have some upside but hasn’t yet panned out. The Rockies got a chance to take a shot on bouncebacks from Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles when they sent Dexter Fowler to the Astros; both players were thought to have some upside, but neither worked out. Most recently, the Dodgers coughed up a highly valued prospect in Jose De Leon in order to net Logan Forsythe from the Rays prior to the 2017 season, though De Leon has been hurt all year.

The market for Castellanos is somewhat cloudy. It’s unclear whether teams will view him as a third baseman or an outfield project. His 2017 performance also shows him to be far better against left-handed pitching (.939 OPS, 16% K rate) than right-handers (.769 OPS, 23% K rate). That, combined with his poor defense, may lead some teams to view him as more of a platoon hitter than a regular, which would certainly limit what type of prospects they’d be willing to give up. That being said, there are a few potential landing spots for Castellanos.

  • The Indians could be in the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder if Brandon Guyer can’t turn things around at the plate, or if they’re unable to retain veteran Austin Jackson.
  • The Blue Jays have made it clear that they plan to try and win in 2018, so they could potentially go after Castellanos if they decide to move on from struggling veteran Jose Bautista, though they could opt to give top prospect Anthony Alford a shot.
  • With Yasiel Puig falling out of favor once again, the Dodgers could conceivably become a potential suitor. Their outfield is full of question marks, and they’d be one candidate to pay Castellanos’s salary even if they only plan to use him in a platoon role.
  • If they can’t re-sign slugging phenom J.D. Martinez, the Diamondbacks could potentially look at acquiring Castellanos as a cheaper right field alternative. The D-backs’ payroll is already set to pay a combined $58.6MM to Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas in 2018, and they’ll also be paying significant amounts to several arb-eligible players.
  • Similarly, the Angels could look to trade for Castellanos as a replacement if they don’t end up retaining Justin Upton, who seems likely to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract at the end of the 2017 season.
  • With the Braves nearing the end of their rebuilding process, they have their sights set on contending in 2018 and 2019. If they decide to move on from Rio Ruiz, Castellanos could man third base in Atlanta for the next two years.

Further complicating the market for Castellanos as a third baseman is the glut of similar right-handed hitting free agents at that position. Righties Yunel Escobar, Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez all offer similar production from the position, with Mike Moustakas offering a premium option who bats from the left side of the plate. The free agent market for outfielders is just as competitive. J.D. Martinez is a clear superior option as far as righty-hitting corner outfielders, though not all teams will be able to afford the type of contract he’s likely to command. Lorenzo Cain is a far better player, though he’ll obviously be hired as a center fielder and therefore will compete in a different market. Austin Jackson, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez all offer production at (or close to) Castellanos’ level, although each has his own set of question marks. Jay Bruce offers similar production for teams interested in a lefty slugger.

So it seems that the biggest roadblock in trying to move Castellanos is that players like him aren’t in short supply. If the free agent dominoes fall too quickly, the Tigers might find themselves unable to get even a modest prospect return, and could opt to simply wait until the trade deadline to see if his market improves. In any case, it’s hard to imagine Detroit getting a top 100 prospect in return for their young slugger unless they opt to package him with another asset.

The Tigers are in a really tough position with Castellanos. They have no great need for his services during their rebuilding years, and could benefit by shedding his $14MM price tag through 2019. Unfortunately, the plethora of alternatives on the free agent market means that the Tigers have little to no leverage in negotiations with other teams. He’s got too much value to simply unload for a garden-variety minor leaguer, but if Detroit can’t trade him this offseason or at the 2018 trade deadline, they could end up in the same situation next year at this time. At that point, his trade value will be even lower than it is now. Whether or not Castellanos will be in a Tigers uniform come April is anybody’s guess.

What do you think will happen? Will the Tigers be able to trade Nicholas Castellanos?

(Poll link for app users)

Central Notes: Royals, Reds, Jose Ramirez

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Via Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, Royals GM Dayton Moore details the elements of an uncertain offseason for Kansas City. The organization will go “one of two ways”, according to Moore. The first option is obvious; the club could choose to “gut the team” in a complete teardown, saving money and going for high draft picks. But Moore does detail an ambitious alternative: trying to retain their free agent stars. “Everybody assumes that we are just going to just get blown away in free agency, and we don’t have a chance,” he tells Dodd. “They may be right, but I think everybody felt that way about Alex Gordon at the time. That fell back to us. You just never really know.” Indeed, there are rumblings that one of the Royals’ biggest offseason priorities will be to retain star first baseman Eric Hosmer. But with the 2017 Royals’ payroll setting a franchise record for the fifth consecutive year while delivering a losing season, Moore does make one blunt concession. “It’s very clear to us that we need to get younger and more athletic. We’re going to continue with that mindset as we go forward into the future.”

More from baseball’s central divisions…

  • Ken Rosenthal details the elements of a bittersweet postseason for Reds scouting director Chris Buckley in a piece for The Athletic (subscription required and recommended). Seven players originally signed by the Reds are currently playing October baseball with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, including infielders Didi Gregorius and Justin Turner. While the presence of former Cincinnati signees gives Buckley a clear rooting interest, it also evokes painful memories of the two scouts he lost to cancer in recent years.
  • David Waldstein of the New York Times tells the fascinating story of how superstar infielder Jose Ramirez first came to the Indians. According to Waldstein, Ramon Pena (then an international scout for Cleveland) attended a three-game showcase in the Dominican Republic largely to gawk at invitees Jorge Alfaro and Martin Peguero, but noticed Ramirez playing with surprising confidence and determination. During a subsequent telephone call with a local trainer who represented the players, Pena was focused on trying to sign Alfaro. When he learned that Alfaro was asking for $1.5 million, the conversation shifted to Ramirez. Pena eventually talked the trainer down from $300,000 all the way to $50,000. After an agreement was in place, however, Pena was unable to gather the papers required for Ramirez to play in the United States, so he sat out the 2010 season and instead spent the year working out at the Indians’ facility in Boca Chica. The team managed to get Ramirez’ papers in order in time for the 2011 season, and Ramirez sped through the minor leagues, making his MLB debut just two years later.

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