Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs

By | at

Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.

Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…

  • The offseason for Cardinals’ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
  • While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.

Rays Will Extend Qualifying Offer To Alex Cobb, Not Logan Morrison

By | at

Nov. 6: The Rays will not make a qualifying offer to first baseman Logan Morrison, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Coming off a breakout 38-homer season, it certainly wouldn’t have been a total shock to see Morrison receive the offer as well, and some clubs may well have taken that risk. However, the cost-conscious Rays likely couldn’t stomach the notion of paying a combined $35MM for the pair in the unlikely event that both accepted the deal, so Morrison will enter free agency unencumbered by the burden of draft-pick compensation.

Nov. 5: In line with rumblings  from earlier today, the Rays will extend a $17.4MM qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. Cobb ranks as the 11th-best free agent available on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.

As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old Cobb has only made $9MM thus far in his career, but will now receive the opportunity to nearly triple that amount if he accepts the QO. Of course, there’s certainly a higher ceiling for him on the free agent market. The MLBTR team believes he could land a 4-year, $48MM contract if he tests free agency this winter.

Tampa Bay originally selected Cobb out of Vero Beach High School in the 4th round of the 2006 draft. He made his major-league debut in 2011, and went on to pitch 520 2/3 innings for the Rays at the major league level before being placed on the DL to begin the 2015 season. What was then described as right forearm tendinitis was eventually revealed to be a partial tear of his UCL. Cobb had the Tommy John procedure in May of that season and didn’t pitch in the majors again until 2016.

In his first full season back from injury, Cobb posted solid overall numbers. He was typically good at inducing ground balls (47.8% ground ball rate) and limiting walks (2.21 BB/9), and typically lacking in the strikeout department (6.42 K/9). Ultimately, the righty posted an impressive 3.66 ERA, though his 4.24 xFIP suggests he wasn’t quite as good as those results. Still, he accumulated 2.4 fWAR and has lined himself up for a nice payday should he choose to venture into free agency.

Cobb features a sinking fastball on which he averages 92.1 MPH, which he throws about 47% of the time. That pitch has been great for him, saving an estimated 13.1 runs in 2017 by measure of Fangraphs’ Pitch Type Linear Weights. His best secondary pitch is his curveball, and he mixes in a two-seamer every now and then. His ability to induce ground balls with those pitches will certainly be in demand this winter.

AL Notes: Cora, Tigers, Astros

By | at

There are many reasons that Alex Cora is the right man to manage the Red Sox. As Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald points out, the fact that he’s Latino only adds to that list. Cora is the 47th manager in the history of the Red Sox franchise, and, up until now, every single one of them had been white. The former middle infielder will be involved with a front office that is mostly white while managing a team on the field that has often been predominantly black and hispanic. Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy has stressed that Cora’s minority status is “a bonus rather than impetus”, but regardless, it looks great for a franchise that took 12 years longer to integrate their roster than the first MLB team to do so. Interestingly, Silverman notes that in 2017, 43 percent of major league baseball players were players of color, while only three of 30 managers were non-white.

More from around the AL…

  • While Tigers are unlikely to make any significant additions to their major league roster this winter, Evan Woodbery of mlive.com says that the organization will be very active on the minor league free agent market. Detroit will focus on making moves to bolster their depth at Triple-A Toledo and will hope to “find a diamond in the rough or lightning in the bottle”, according to GM Al Avila. Woodbery lists 23 players in the Tigers’ system who are eligible to become minor league free agents, and while many of those will probably re-sign with the organization, it seems likely there will be some shuffling of their Double- and Triple-A rosters this winter.
  • Three and a half years ago, an article appeared in Sports Illustrated with a prediction that the Astros would win the 2017 World Series. This past Thursday, Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated explains why he’s predicting a repeat for the Astros in 2018. Although only two teams have been able to win back-to-back championships since the 70’s, Reiter cites a powerhouse offense that will only lose Cameron Maybin and Carlos Beltran as a big reason the Astros can accomplish the feat next year. He also points out that more young reinforcements are on the way in five-tool left-handed outfielder Kyle Tucker and towering right-handed pitcher Forrest Whitley. While Reiter cites the bullpen as an area of need, he concludes that the Astros are “unusually well-positioned to hang onto the crown”.

Looking For A Match In A Marcell Ozuna Trade

By | at

While the potential of a Giancarlo Stanton trade seems to be dominating headlines in Miami, the Marlins have plenty of other players who could potentially be on the move this winter as they look to cut payroll. In particular, a trade of outfielder Marcell Ozuna has the potential to bring back a big haul in terms of prospects while saving the Marlins something in the neighborhood of $25MM over the next two seasons. As a client of Scott Boras, Ozuna is unlikely to sign any sort of extension to remain in Miami, so the organization seems likely to at least explore some trade scenarios this winter.

When considering the possibility of an Ozuna trade, one has to take into account that the Marlins don’t seem to be in any rush to move him. The team reportedly values his contributions highly, and seems more focused on finding trade partners for other players, including Stanton, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado. Any trade involving Ozuna will likely have to meet the Marlins’ asking price without much in the way of wiggle room.

That being said, there would seem to be no shortage of suitors for the two-time All-Star. Ozuna has experience at all three outfield positions (though his defense in center field leaves something to be desired), and packs a wallop from the right side of the plate. His 37 homers and breakout .312/.376/.548 batting line across 679 plate appearances in 2017 could have teams around the league salivating at the mere thought of him being shopped. MLBTR’s arbitration projection model expects him to earn $10.9MM in 2018, which is a considerable sum but certainly a bargain on a 4.8 fWAR player. It would be more difficult to think of contending teams that don’t have a need for Ozuna than to list off those who do.

The key to finding the best suitors for Ozuna comes down to a question of which contending teams have the kind of high-ceiling prospects necessary to wow the Marlins, along with a hole in their outfield gaping enough to give that talent up. For example, the Astros have the kind of prospects that could get a deal done, but probably wouldn’t be interested in paying such a high price to upgrade over serviceable players like Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez. Conversely, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole in their outfield but lack the kind of headliner prospect necessary to tempt Ozuna away from the Fish.

One potential match that comes to mind is the Nationals. With Jayson Werth set to become a free agent, Ozuna could take over left field. It’s unlikely the Nats would be willing to part with Victor Robles, but even Juan Soto and Carter Kieboom could provide a good starting point. On the other hand, while it makes some sense on paper, division rivals don’t often make trades of that magnitude with each other. To make matters more complicated, the Nationals are already likely to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and adding another $10.9MM salary to the books would only make things worse.

The Rays, Braves and Blue Jays all own multiple prospects in MLB Pipeline’s top 25, and all three teams could plug a considerable hole with the addition of Ozuna. However, one has to wonder if any of these teams are complete enough to warrant the kind of all-in move that an Ozuna trade would represent. It certainly helps that he comes with two years of team control and would therefore be more than simply a rental.

The Indians are an interesting option. While they have a glut of outfield options after picking up the option on Michael Brantley, they could really benefit from a right-handed outfielder to balance out all the lefties, including Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Bradley Zimmer and Jason Kipnis. One could see an alignment in which Ozuna slots in as their everyday right fielder while Brantley plays first base or DH and Kipnis plays at second. Cleveland holds blue-chip prospects in Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie.

The Cardinals are worth mentioning, since they would probably have some level of interest considering their reported pursuit of Stanton. They have a number of top 100 prospects in their system and a 40-man roster crunch that could make it worth dealing a couple of them.

One match that seems to stand out above the rest, however, is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their outfield is deep, but they’re lacking in truly elite corner outfielders and they probably wouldn’t have trouble tacking on an extra $10.9MM in payroll. To boot, their farm system is one of the deepest in baseball. One could imagine them dangling Alex Verdugo or Yadier Alvarez as a starting point, and adding to the package from there. In theory, the Dodgers seem like a really good match for an Ozuna trade.

As I mentioned earlier, the Marlins certainly don’t need to trade Ozuna this winter, especially if they’re more focused on moving other players. If they want to, however, they’d find no shortage of interested teams. The market for Ozuna would be strong, so Miami ought to seriously consider the possibility.

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Sunday

By | at

The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. Here’s some QO-related chatter that’s been floating around on Sunday.

  • The Rays are likely to issue a qualifying offer to right-handed starter Alex Cobb, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Cobb pitched to a 3.66 ERA with a typically strong 47.8% ground ball rate across 179 1/3 innings in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old started 29 games in 2017. The MLBTR team predicts a four-year, $48MM contract for him.
  • Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago opines that the Cubs will issue a QO to both Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis (something that has long seemed likely). He further speculates that the (unlikely) event of Davis accepting the offer would represent an ideal scenario for the Cubs, who don’t have an obvious replacement for him in the closer role aside from perhaps Carl Edwards Jr., who struggled with command in the playoffs and has only 107 innings of major league experience. Both Arrieta and Davis rank among MLBTR’s top ten free agents.
  • The Rangers are not expected to extend a QO to right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter. He notes that the Rangers were considering the move, but that certainly would have been surprising given Cashner’s injury history and poor peripherals. Though he managed a 3.40 ERA across 166 2/3 innings in 2017, Cashner struck out an alarmingly low 4.64 batters per nine innings. He seemingly benefitted from some BABIP- and homer/fly ball rate-related luck as evidenced by his 5.30 xFIP. The MLBTR team predicted a 2-year, $20MM contract for Cashner, ranking him as the 27th-best free agent available.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With an extra-inning loss to the division rival Cubs on September 28th, the St. Louis Cardinals were eliminated from postseason contention, marking the first time the club has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2007-2008. However, the future of the organization looks bright. An invasion of talent from the minor leagues came up this season to support a core of proven veterans, and the continued development of that fresh crop of talent alone will probably help the team take a step forward. The Cardinals have a deep roster and a bit of wiggle room in their payroll to fill in the gaps, including a potential big one in the rotation should free agent starter Lance Lynn decide to sign elsewhere.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information]

While many were surprised at the Cardinals’ pessimistic preseason PECOTA projection, the club ended up finishing 83-79, good for third in the NL Central. But the team scored 761 runs while allowing 705, putting their pythagorean record at 87-75. If this record is a better reflection of the club’s true talent, then it’s easy to imagine that the Cardinals only need a little retooling to make it back to the playoffs in 2018. They have an astonishingly deep MLB roster, and equally impressive vertical depth in the upper minors.

That’s good news for manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals’ front office… the club hasn’t missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since before the turn of the century. The expectations of St. Louis fans are always high, and there’s probably at least some pressure not to disappoint them for a third consecutive year.

After firing pitching coach Derek Lilliquist and bullpen coach Blake Ilsley, the Cardinals hired Mike Maddux to be their new pitching coach. The Redbirds were said to be seeking a “more modern approach to starter usage and bullpen deployment“, and ultimately landed on Maddux after considering many potential candidates. They’ll hope his 15 years of experience can help get the most out of their young set of hurlers.

One question facing the Cardinals is whether or not they ought to bring back Lance Lynn. They’ll first need to decide whether or not to give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $17.4MM this year. Lynn’s 4.82 FIP and 10.1% walk rate in 2017 were both career highs, while his 19.7% strikeout rate was a career low. Part of that could possibly be attributed to Lynn losing a full mile per hour on his fastball after missing all of 2016 due to a torn UCL and resulting Tommy John surgery. However, his actual results (3.43 ERA across 186 1/3 innings) were typically strong, and Lynn has a great track record of success in the majors. From 2012 through 2015, the right-hander posted a 60-38 record and was worth 13 fWAR, never pitching fewer than 175 innings.

Since the Cardinals did not receive revenue sharing in 2017, they wouldn’t be eligible to receive a compensatory pick after the first round under MLB’s new qualifying offer system if Lynn declines a QO. Instead, they’d receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the draft’s second round. Regardless, Lynn’s earning power is likely to be far more than $17.4MM in total guarantees, so the likelihood that he’ll decline a QO should be incentive enough for the Cards to offer him one and acquire the draft pick (and corresponding bonus pool money).

Beyond that, it doesn’t seem as though the Cardinals have all that much interest in bringing Lynn back. He’s rumored to be seeking a Jordan Zimmerman-sized deal, which seems a bit outlandish and certainly more than the Cardinals are willing to pay for him. Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright will occupy three spots in the rotation, and beyond that the Cardinals would probably like to see what they have in Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty rather than take a risk on a 30 year-old who’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. Speaking of which, highly regarded young rightyAlex Reyes will return from his own Tommy John surgery at some point in 2018. The likelihood that he’ll return early in the year will be a factor the Cards take into consideration when addressing their rotation this offseason.

Wainwright, the longtime franchise icon, hasn’t been the same since missing most of the 2015 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. 2017 was his worst season ever, though his peripherals suggest he wasn’t quite as bad as his 5.11 ERA would indicate. Still, he missed significant time with elbow and back injuries. The four-time Cy Young vote-earner seems to no longer be a reliable rotation option, and while the club doesn’t seem interested in spending money to back Lynn, they could potentially look to dole out a one-year deal to a veteran swingman type who could pitch out of the bullpen while Wainwright is healthy. Mike Minor, Francisco Liriano and Wade Miley are potential options in that arena. It’s also possible that the Cards could sign a more reliable starter on a short-term deal, and have Weaver or Flaherty begin the season at Triple-A. However, with three high-upside arms (including Reyes) itching to prove themselves at the major league level, it’s somewhat difficult — albeit hardly impossible — to imagine the Cardinals shelling out significant dollars on a long-term contract for a top-tier or even second-tier free agent starter. If anything, they have enough prospect depth to attempt a trade for Gerrit Cole or Michael Fulmer. Still, they have the payroll space to go after Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, for example, and over the course of the offseason there are many scenarios that could leave them wanting to inquire on those names.

With Seung Hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio set to become free agents, and Trevor Rosenthal a good bet to be non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals bullpen will require some attention this offseason. Oh was mostly ineffective in 2017, but the club might seriously consider a reunion with Nicasio, who served as their closer during the final days of the season after joining the team in September. Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia, Brett Cecil, Matt Bowman, Sam Tuivailala and the hard-throwing Sandy Alcantara all pitched well during this past season and are all under contract for 2018; that group alone is a great start.

Whether the club brings back Nicasio or not, they might be interested in a free agent relief ace to close out games. They’re likely to at least inquire on Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Wade Davis. Spending big on top-tier relievers isn’t something the Cardinals have done historically, however. It’s arguably more likely they’ll give out a cheaper multi-year deal to a proven, high-upside reliever without the marquee closer price tag, like they did when they signed Brett Cecil last year. I’d expect them to be in on Bryan Shaw in particular, especially if they bring Nicasio back. Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek are some other relievers they’ll probably be in on. There are plenty of late-inning options on the trade market as well. A while back, MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd took a look at the Cardinals’ late-inning reliever situation, and explored all potential options in an in-depth MLBTR original.

The Cardinals’ position player depth chart is as deep as any you’ll see in the major leagues. Seven different St. Louis hitters accumulated at least 2 WAR in 2017, which ties the Dodgers for most in the majors. The one area that was lacking in production for the Cardinals was right field. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk were both below-average hitters in 2017 by wRC+. It’s too soon to give up on either one, especially considering they’re both just 26 and were both above-average players last season. It’s also worth noting that Piscotty is signed through 2022, so the club is committed to him in a sense.

That being said, the Cards need more overall production and could enter the offseason willing to part with some depth in favor of quality. Their right field situation could put the Cardinals in the mix for Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins. It’s been rumored that Miami could try and get out from under the remaining ten years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, and St. Louis is one of very few teams with both the prospect depth and financial resources to pay up for last year’s home run champ. I wouldn’t expect them to overpay in terms of prospects, but if Stanton does get traded, St. Louis is as good a landing spot as any. And for a contending team, he could be willing to waive his no-trade clause.

As for Ozuna, he’d come with just two years of team control, but would cost a lot more in terms of prospects. The Cardinals have two Triple-A outfielders who rank within MLB pipeline’s top 100 prospects (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader) and are seemingly blocked at the major league level for the near future. But neither seems to have the type of upside needed to bring back a hitter of Ozuna’s caliber. Their more valuable prospects (Reyes, Flaherty and catcher Carson Kelly) will all be relied upon at the major league level this season. I’d imagine that St. Louis will inquire on Ozuna, but that a trade is unlikely to materialize.

Any trade for a right fielder would make Grichuk an obvious trade candidate. Indeed, even if they don’t acquire an outside player, it would seem that the Cardinals don’t really have a need for Grichuk. Piscotty is under contract for at least the next four years, Tommy Pham was the team’s best player by WAR in 2017, while Dexter Fowler is owed $66MM through 2021. Grichuk is projected to make $2.8MM in his first trip through arbitration, and although those dollars won’t force the Cards’ hand, Bader or Magneuris Sierra would fill a fourth outfielder role at the league minimum salary. O’Neill is close to major-league ready as well.

Grichuk has solid power; he’s hit 66 home runs across 1,386 major league plate appearances. His plate discipline, however, has been the cause of multiple demotions since his first call-up in 2014. With a 30% strikeout rate for his career against just a 6% walk rate, Grichuk has mustered just a .297 OBP during his time in the majors. Still, with his power upside and impressive work with the glove, there are plenty of teams could be willing to take a chance on him.

Trading Grichuk is just one of a few routes the Cardinals could go in order to make use of a surplus of talent on their 40-man roster. The Redbirds have a surprisingly deep collection of solid talent on their expanded roster, but they might consider a number of moves aimed at consolidating that solid talent into elite talent. Though they have four players set to become free agents, they have a number of factors they’ll need to take into consideration in regards to their roster this winter.

Reyes will need to be re-added to the 40-man when he comes off the 60-day DL. While that might not seem like a big deal in and of itself, things get far more complicated when one considers that the Rule 5 Draft is fast approaching. In recent years, the Cardinals have lost high-upside players like Luis Perdomo and Allen Cordoba to the Padres. This season, they have another three players who rank within their top 20 prospects that will become vulnerable to being plucked away by another club, on the condition that they be kept on that new club’s 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season. No. 86 overall prospect O’Neill is a sure bet to claim a spot, while lefty Austin Gomber and outfielder Oscar Mercado might be deemed worthy of protection as well.

So St. Louis faces a tough set of questions in regards to their expanded roster. If they add all four of the above youngsters to the 40-man, those players would take the roster spots of all four of their outgoing free agents. At that point, they’d need to begin designating a player for assignment with each free agent signing they make this winter. If they don’t add Gomber or Mercado, they risk losing either or both for a paltry $50K apiece. So we certainly shouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals end up trading multiple prospects for a single talented major league player early in the offseason, or even if they end up trading someone like Grichuk or Aledmys Diaz for minor league talent.

In recent seasons, the Cardinals have given out long-term contract extensions to young core players. Before the 2017 season, they extended both Martinez and Piscotty. The year prior, they gave second baseman Kolten Wong a contract extension. Going into 2018, there aren’t many players that fit the bill for this type of deal. Tommy Pham would seem like an obvious candidate at first glance, but he’s already 29, so the club might be better served to ride his contract out through arbitration. Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez performed well in 2017, but both have less than a full season’s worth of MLB experience; there’s no rush to lock either player up. The best extension candidate for St. Louis might be right-handed starter Michael Wacha, if they think he has turned a corner, although it’s worth noting that Tyler Lyons could get a consideration as a breakout lefty reliever.

The offseason path for the Cardinals will be one of the most difficult to predict in all of Major League Baseball. They don’t have any glaring holes on their roster, but they’re in need of some upgrades overall. They could make those upgrades in a number of different places and have the resources in payroll space, prospect depth and major league talent necessary to get something done. Count on a busy winter for the front office in St. Louis.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

A 102-win season for the Tribe included a record-setting 22-game win streak that defied injuries and mathematical odds. But an early exit in the postseason left players (and fans) reeling, and they’ll head into the offseason with a few key players set to become free agents. With most of the 2016-2017 AL Central champion core still in place, the Indians will probably only need some minor retooling to be considered favorites for a third consecutive division title.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Edwin Encarnacion, DH: $37MM through 2019 ($20MM option for 2020, $5MM buyout)
  • Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF: $28MM through 2019 ($16.5MM option for 2020, $2.5MM buyout)
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $9MM through 2018
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $23.5MM through 2019 ($13.5MM option for 2020/$14MM option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $8MM through 2018 ($9MM option for 2019/$9.5MM option for 2020, $662.5K in total buyouts)
  • Yan Gomes, C: $12.95MM through 2019 ($9MM option for 2020, $1MM buyout/$11MM option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Brandon Guyer, OF: $2.75MM through 2018 ($3MM option for 2019, $250k buyout)
  • Jose Ramirez, INF: $21.4MM through 2021 ($11MM option for 2022, $2MM buyout/$13MM option for 2023)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $7.5MM through 2020 ($5.5MM option for 2021, $450K buyout/$7MM option for 2022, $450K buyout)

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Cleveland Indians Depth Chart; Cleveland Indians Payroll]

Cleveland’s roster is in good shape headed into the offseason. But for the first time in many years, the Indians will see several talented players become too expensive to retain. The Tribe’s guaranteed payroll plus projected arbitration salaries is already set to top $111MM in 2018, and that’s after setting a franchise record with a 2017 payroll close to $134MM. It’s unlikely that the small market Indians will significantly exceed that total, leaving them with some tough decisions to make this winter.

One of the first (and easiest) questions to answer will be whether or not to extend long-time first baseman Carlos Santana a qualifying offer. The switch-hitter has made at least 600 plate appearances in each of his seven full seasons with the Indians, averaging 3 WAR and 24 home runs across that span while leading the entire American League with 689 walks. While he’s been prone to slumps and is susceptible to extreme pull shifts, those weaknesses will definitely not be enough to dissuade the Indians issuing him a one-year QO at $17.4MM. He’ll almost certainly reject that offer, netting the organization a draft pick at the end of the first round should he sign elsewhere for at least $50MM in guarantees (or after Comp Round B, if the contract is less than $50MM). In the highly unlikely event he accepts the offer, they’d certainly be glad to have him back on a one-year deal during a contending season.

Beyond that, it would be atypical for the Indians to shell out big money and bring back Santana. Because he’s younger, he could seek more in terms of years than fellow first base/DH type Edwin Encarnacion did last winter. The average annual value of a new deal for Santana would tie up much of the remaining space in the Tribe’s 2018 payroll unless it were heavily backloaded, and such a contract could even approach or exceed the $60MM total promised to Encarnacion last winter. Perhaps there’s still some room to imagine a reunion, though. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored Santana’s market in-depth just last week, pointing out that another rich free agent first base crop could hurt his earning power. There were rumors back in April of a dialogue between the Indians and Santana’s camp, but at this point, teams like the Red Sox or Rangers will probably be able to offer the Octagon client more money.

Should Santana depart, the Indians could explore a reunion with Mike Napoli or Mark Reynolds. They might also have interest in Lucas Duda or any of the many other first base/DH candidates hitting the open market in a few days. The club has myriad internal options as well. Encarnacion could play first base, albeit with subpar defense. Such a move would allow the injury-riddled Michael Brantley to take over DH duties and stay off the field, if the Indians decide to pick up his option (more on that later). Outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall has some experience at first base, though he’s usually kept out of the lineup against left-handed pitching. Yandy Diaz might be a candidate to get a look at the position as well. It’s worth noting that the Indians have a high-upside first base prospect in Bobby Bradley, but he’s never played above the Double-A level and would therefore be unlikely to win the job out of spring training.

Thanks to some data-driven improvements to his swing, outfielder Jay Bruce enjoyed a strong 2017 season, clubbing 36 homers with a .254/.324/.508 slash line across 617 plate appearances between the Mets and Indians. He became a fan favorite after a trade to Cleveland in August, smacking the walk-off hit that extended Cleveland’s record winning streak to 22 games and crushing two clutch home runs in the ALDS. Like Santana, however, he’d require significant money to bring back. The Indians have a large crowd of left-handed outfield options already, including Brantley, Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, Bradley Zimmer and Tyler Naquin. The club will probably end up choosing among those options rather than try to retain Bruce. The 30 year-old slugger is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded mid-season.

Brantley, a former MVP candidate, has missed most of the past two seasons with ankle and shoulder injuries. For the third straight year, he’ll enter spring training coming off a significant surgery. While Brantley has been healthy, he’s been above average with the bat, hitting .292/.349/.427 with a typically low 13.4% strikeout rate. But although it seemed almost certain back in July that Cleveland would pick up his $11MM option for 2018, that decision may be one of the most difficult the Indians face this offseason. (The majority of MLBTR readers said they expect the team to decline the option in a recent poll.) Brantley’s health is a risk for sure, and the Indians will have to factor that in when trying to fit the payroll puzzle pieces together.

If the Indians do pick up Brantley’s option (with intentions of utilizing him in the outfield), Chisenhall could potentially become a trade candidate. Although his 129 wRC+ when healthy ranked fourth among Indians hitters, Lonnie Baseball’s $5.8MM projected arbitration salary might be more than the Indians care to pay for an injury-prone platoon player. The club could instead opt to have Naquin fill his role at the league minimum salary in order to open up payroll space to use in other ways. Then again, the club seems to have passed over Naquin in favor of other options this year, so he might not be someone they’re willing to rely on. Chisenhall will more likely than not be on the opening day roster for 2018, but I expect they’ll at least explore the trade market for him.

Austin Jackson is another player the Indians will have to make a decision on. With health questions surrounding Brandon Guyer, Cleveland would probably like to have another right-handed outfielder on the roster. The 30 year-old has a great track record outside of a poor 2016 season, and is coming off a year in which he had great (albeit BABIP-driven) success at the plate. Of all their free agents, Jackson is probably the most likely candidate to be brought back, but even he might cost more than the Indians are willing to pay with the speedy switch-hitter Greg Allen waiting in the wings.

Kipnis’ role with the club will be a big factor in the Tribe’s offseason plans. He’s coming off a poor offensive season wherein he had multiple stints on the DL, and the two positions he played for the club in 2017 seem tabbed for All-Star Jose Ramirez (second base) and Zimmer (center field). Ramirez could shift back over to third to make room for Kipnis at second, but the club might want to get long looks at Diaz and top prospect Francisco Mejia, the latter of whom is being tested at third in the Arizona Fall League. And Giovanny Urshela remains on hand as well; he struggled badly at the plate but carried the bulk of the load at third down the stretch. Depending on what happens with Brantley and Chisenhall this offseason, it seems like Kipnis could slide to a corner outfield spot — if he’s not traded, which also appears possible.

So, if the Indians decide to play Encarnacion at first base with Brantley as the main DH, the outfield pieces would fall into place somewhat conveniently, with Zimmer in center and Chisenhall, Kipnis, Allen, Guyer and Abraham Almonte as the other main outfield options. The club could then explore inking Jackson to a new deal or exploring a free agent crop that includes Melky Cabrera, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Gomez as reasonably-priced options.

If the club declines Brantley’s option and opts not to sign a free agent first baseman, they’ll probably at least inquire on J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton, whose right-handed power would be a welcome addition to a lefty-heavy outfield. However, those outfielders are likely to be well out of their price range; each would command even more money than a new contract for Santana. Given the commitment to Encarnacion, it’s not altogether clear that kind of investment is really plausible. Jose Bautista could be another free agent they consider as a bounceback option, at a much lower price.

Another option would be to fill the potential hole in the lineup via trade. The Indians have two blue chip prospects in Mejia and strikeout wizard Triston McKenzie, and a good number of upside prospects beyond them. If they opt to decline Brantley’s option, the Tribe could target right-handed hitting outfielders Marcell Ozuna of the Marlins or Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates. Matt Adams of the Braves could be available at a lower cost and would fill the first base opening nicely.

On the pitching side, the Indians might have the payroll space to bring back one of Joe Smith or Bryan Shaw, but it’s highly unlikely that both will return. If both depart, the Tribe’s bullpen might be able to succeed on internal options alone. With Cody Allen and Andrew Miller at the back end, they’ll once again be well off in close games. Zach McAllister, Nick Goody, Tyler Olson and Dan Otero will all be back, and the Indians could rely on Shawn Armstrong or Kyle Crockett to fill the remaining opening. I expect the Indians to decline lefty Boone Logan’s option and sign at least one free agent bullpen arm from the middle or lower tier, but there’s a good chance they’ll rely on internal options and waiver claims as well, provided they can’t retain Smith or Shaw. It’s worth noting that the Indians will open 2018 with a surplus of starters if they pick up Josh Tomlin’s $3MM option, so it’s possible that he, Danny Salazar or Mike Clevinger could pitch in a relief role as well.

A brilliant starting rotation has become Cleveland’s signature, and the whole group is coming back once again. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Salazar and Clevinger are all under control through 2019. I anticipate the club will pick up Tomlin’s option for 2018. Cody Anderson will be able to serve as vertical depth when he returns from Tommy John recovery at some point this season, while Ryan Merritt and Shawn Morimando will be available for spot starts as well.

No Indians offseason outlook would be complete without a mention of former Platinum Glove-winning shortstop and MVP candidate Francisco Lindor. The 23-year old posted another phenomenal season, slugging 33 homers and posting good defensive marks across 1,377 innings at shortstop. He posted an 8.3% walk rate and 12.9% strikeout rate exactly identical to his 2016 season while leading the entire American League with 723 plate appearances. After reportedly offering their young phenom an extension close to $100MM this past spring, they’ll no doubt make another attempt to lock him up before the 2018 season begins. After another 6-WAR season, he’ll probably cost even more in terms of guaranteed dollars, but with Lindor quickly establishing himself as one of the Tribe’s all-time great shortstops — and arbitration beckoning in the fall of 2018 — this might be the last reasonable chance they have to keep him in Cleveland beyond his age 27 season.

Although Cleveland typically makes an attempt to extend as many young players as they can, there aren’t many extension candidates in the organization outside of Lindor. Bauer showed major improvements in the second half, and with three arbitration years remaining he’s probably the next best candidate with whom to explore a long-term deal. But the occasionally offbeat righty has had his ups and downs and is at best a questionable target for a new contract. Clevinger could be worth a conversation as well; he’s shown promise in his limited service time.

The Indians already took care of one notable item on the docket when they found a pitching coach to replace Mickey Callaway, who was recently hired as the Mets’ new manager. The loss of Callaway comes as a sting to the Indians, whose pitching staff has been the best in baseball by WAR since he became the pitching coach in 2013, in addition to being the only staff during that time to average over a strikeout per inning across the board. He’ll be replaced by Carl Willis, who previously held the position in Cleveland and (more recently) with the Red Sox.

The Indians have a lot of flexible pieces to try and connect in a creative roster mosaic this offseason. The amount of possible combinations will be both an advantage an a headache, but whatever path they take, they’re likely to enter 2018 as favorites to return to the postseason once again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

World Series Notes: Morton, Morrow, Gurriel

By | at

It was only a few years ago that Astros right-hander Charlie Morton was a ground ball specialist in Pittsburgh, benefitting largely from an increase in shifts that was revolutionary at the time. Fast-forward to the present, and Morton is suddenly one of the hardest-throwing starters in the American League and mixes in his hammer curve to rack up the K’s. Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs leads us through the fascinating process in which Morton used PITCHf/x data to better understand his actual performance, figure out what he’s in control of, and use it to improve his results. After picking up close to 3MPH on his average fastball, Morton learned to trust his mechanics and began to throw his four-seamer up in the zone more often. Sawchik uses a great combination of quotes and charts to tell the story of how Morton managed a breakout age 33 season and was trusted with the ball in Game 4 of the World Series tonight. We highly recommend giving the piece a thorough read.

A few other items from the 2017 World Series…

  • Anthony Slater of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended) tells the story of Brandon Morrow, a reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever-again from Rohnert Park, California. The fifth-overall pick in the 2006 draft was the second player in his draft class to debut in the majors (after 2016 ALCS MVP Andrew Miller), but seemed to be a relative letdown compared to some of the superstars drafted around him. His career nearly came to an end due to surgeries, but the Dodgers took a chance on him last offseason, signing him to a minor-league contract that included a spring training invite. 45 stellar regular-season appearances later, Morrow had earned a spot at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, thanks in part to a career-high 97.8 average fastball velocity that propelled him to a 10.31 K/9 mark and a 1.55 FIP. The 33-year-old will reach free agency after the World Series is over, and should be in line for a respectable payday.
  • Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times adds his own perspective to the Yuli Gurriel incident in which the Astros first baseman used a racial slur in reference to Darvish in Game 3. Interestingly, Hernandez (who was born to a Japanese mother) seems to suggest that perhaps the incident shouldn’t be viewed through an American lens, through which it potentially carries more weight than it would in Latin culture due to the events in US history over the past century. This doesn’t make it okay, Hernandez makes sure to mention, and the majority of people will agree that Gurriel’s behavior was offensive and insensitive. Hopefully the Cuban infielder has learned from the experience and will not repeat this mistake in the future.
  • Mike Oz of Yahoo Sports got a chance to speak with 7-year-old Hailey Dawson, the girl with a 3-D printed hand who threw out the first pitch in Game 4. While many readers may already know her story, the conversation between Dawson and Oz is well worth a read; the quotes and Oz’s descriptions really capture the emotion and excitement of a little girl who just two months ago got her prosthetic hand and dreams of throwing out a first pitch in all 30 ballparks.

Sorting The Skills Of The Best Free Agent Corner Outfielders

By | at

Last night, I sorted the skills of the best free agent first basemen. While there are always a large number of free agent corner outfielders, this year there are three that stand high above the rest. Justin Upton (who can opt out of the remaining 4 years and $88MM on his current deal), J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce all had great 2017 seasons, and all three are 30 years of age.

But the similarities don’t stop there. Each of those three corner outfielders smacked at least 35 homers while driving it at least 100 runs in 2017. All three were traded mid-season, making them ineligible for qualifying offers (though Upton wouldn’t have been able to receive one under the new CBA anyway, since he’s been issued a QO in a past season). All have averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season for the past three years. They even share the same first initial.

So what makes these three players different? Let’s start by taking a quick look at their fWAR.

One-Year Sample (2017)

  1. Upton – 5.0
  2. Martinez – 3.8
  3. Bruce – 2.7

Three-Year Sample (2015-2017)

  1. Martinez – 10.5
  2. Upton – 9.9
  3. Bruce – 3.7

Upton seems to have had the best overall 2017 season, while Martinez has been more valuable over the larger sample size. But each of these outfielders provide their value to prospective ballclubs in different ways. Here’s a breakdown of their skill sets.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .367
  2. Upton – .268
  3. Bruce – .254

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .284
  2. Bruce – .239
  3. Upton – .230

Extra Base Hits Per Plate 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 15.13
  2. Upton – 12.44
  3. Bruce – 10.85

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.39
  2. Bruce – 10.67
  3. Upton – 10.37

It’s no surprise that Martinez leads the way in the power department. Despite missing over a month of the 2017 season with an injury, he still managed to lead the group with 45 homers between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Ever since his breakout year with the Tigers, he’s been a home run monster. While Upton was better in 2017, Bruce has an advantage over him when a three-year sample is taken into account, probably in part due to Upton’s poor start to 2016. Power is certainly not a weakness for any of these players, but Martinez is the runaway favorite in the pop department.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.5%
  2. Martinez – 26.2%
  3. Upton – 28.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.1%
  2. Martinez – 26.1%
  3. Upton – 27.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 11.7%
  2. Martinez – 10.8%
  3. Bruce – 9.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2%
  2. Martinez – 9.3%
  3. Bruce – 8.6%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 26.9%
  2. Bruce – 31.3%
  3. Martinez – 32.1%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 25.7%
  2. Bruce – 32.0%
  3. Martinez – 33.8%

All three of these players have been pretty consistent in their plate discipline skills across the past three seasons. While Upton seems to have a lot of swing and miss in his game, he chases a much lower percentage of bad pitches than do the others. He also draws more walks. We can probably say with some certainty that Martinez has the worst plate discipline of the group.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 73.9%
  2. Upton – 71.7%
  3. Martinez – 71.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 75.8%
  2. Martinez – 72.0%
  3. Upton – 71.2%

Bruce would appear to have the best ability to make contact. It’s interesting to see that his contact rate is down so significantly from years past; hopefully this is not a sign of decline but rather a sign of change in approach. Martinez and Upton are close enough that we can basically consider this category a toss-up between those two.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.3
  2. Upton – 7.9
  3. Bruce – 7.1

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 10.9
  2. Upton – 7.4
  3. Bruce – 6.4

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 49.0%
  2. Upton – 41.0%
  3. Bruce – 40.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 44.0%
  2. Upton – 38.1%
  3. Bruce – 37.9%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 90.8
  2. Upton – 88.8
  3. Bruce – 88.3

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 91.2
  2. Upton – 90.1
  3. Bruce – 89.0

The numbers are completely consistent across categories and sample sizes; Martinez makes the highest-quality contact by a wide margin, with Upton being just a bit better than Bruce in each of these categories. It’s worth mentioning that Martinez’ 12.3 barrels per hundred plate appearances ranked second in all of baseball this year, behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (12.8).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Weak Platoon Side:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 147
  2. Upton – 131
  3. Bruce – 88

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 141
  2. Upton – 120
  3. Bruce – 82

Pull Rate (Pull%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 38.3%
  2. Upton – 38.6%
  3. Bruce – 44.4%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 40.9%
  2. Martinez – 40.1%
  3. Bruce – 45.3%

Bruce’s value really falls off here. Martinez and Upton are both worse against righties than lefties, but still right-handers for well-above-average results. Bruce, on the other hand, is a below-average hitter against southpaws. Furthermore, Bruce is far more vulnerable to shifts than his counterparts, consistently pulling the ball far more often. Count Bruce a loser in this arena.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 4.0
  2. Bruce – [-2.1]
  3. Martinez – [-5.7]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2
  2. Bruce – [-6.7]
  3. Martinez [-11.2]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 27.6
  2. Martinez – 26.8
  3. Bruce – 26.5

Upton really separates himself in this regard, providing positive baserunning value while reaching a peak sprint speed nearly a full mile per hour better than his competitors. It’s probably best to use the one-year sample size here, as players don’t often end up getting faster after age 30. Martinez’ baserunning value works against him, but speed doesn’t matter as much when you’re hitting 45 balls out of the park.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 3.5
  2. Bruce – 2.4
  3. Martinez – [-14.8]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – [-0.3]
  2. Bruce – [-4.0]
  3. Martinez – [-7.2]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 8
  2. Bruce – 5
  3. Martinez – [-5]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 17
  2. Bruce – [-1]
  3. Martinez – [-23]

Here, we see yet another area where Upton distinguishes himself. Upton rates as a far superior option to both Bruce and Martinez over a three-year sample size. If we’re to believe Bruce has genuinely made improvements to his glovework, this category could give his value a bit of a boost. To say Martinez is bad in the field would be an understatement. If he goes to an AL team, that might not matter quite as much. Still, his fielding skills are more likely than not to decline from this point on, and one has to wonder at what point his defense will become a liability.

While Upton and Martinez are probably obvious bets to make more than Bruce in free agency, all three players will ultimately sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Many teams are looking for corner outfielders, and each of these three outfielders provide something the others don’t. Due to his contact ability, Bruce could be a serviceable bargain signing for a team that has the ability to get on base and put the ball in play a lot. A team with a more ground ball-oriented starting staff might care slightly less about Martinez’ outfield defense. Upton’s whiff rate might not matter to teams that are more focused on scoring runs with the long ball. It will be fun to see how these factors influence the market for each of these players.

Quick Hits: Marlins, Chief Wahoo, Cubs, Otani

By | at

The new Marlins ownership group apparently asked Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Andre Dawson to remain with the organization, but at a 75% pay cut amounting to a $25k annual salary. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has the full scoop here. In a phone interview with FanRag, Perez said, “They say they wanted us in the organization. But we didn’t like the way they wanted us in the organization.” The debacle actually began with Marlins president David Samson calling Perez to tell him that the two were being let go. After a few subsequent events, Perez and Dawson were given the $25K offer and asked to spend their time with minor leaguers rather than the major leaguers they had developed a rapport with. Conflicting information came to the two Hall of Famers from Samson and Jeter over the course of a few days, leading Perez to describe the whole fiasco as “ridiculous”, adding that “it wasn’t right”.  They’ve rejected their respective low-ball offers and will no longer be a part of the Marlins organization.

Some other items across major league baseball as the Astros and Dodgers prepare to face each other in Game 4…

  • Yuli Gurriel’s use of a racial slur aimed at Yu Darvish has once again brought up the subject of the Indians’ Chief Wahoo logo. When asked about Chief Wahoo, Manfred said that he sees a difference between the logo and Gurriel’s slur, but that “both are problematic” (via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times). Scott Miller of Bleacher Report adds in his own tweet that Manfred plans to deal with Chief Wahoo in the offseason.
  • The Cubs might be willing to listen on big-name players in order to acquire young pitchers, Phil Rogers of MLB.com reports. He lists Chris Archer, Marcus Stroman, Sean Manaea, Aaron Nola and Michael Fulmer as potential targets, noting that only Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are likely to be considered untouchable. The Cubs’ starting staff finished with a 4.05 combined ERA last season, but could see former Cy Young-winner Jake Arrieta leave in free agency (Rogers cites the Rangers as a team that could potentially sign him).
  • Coveted Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Shohei Otani has been released from the hospital following successful ankle surgery, according to a report from the Japan Times. Otani’s recovery process will be one to watch, as he’s likely to be courted by all 30 MLB teams during the offseason as he attempts a move to the majors. Otani’s ankle injury can actually be traced all the way back to last October and has bothered him ever since, so fans in Japan and the US alike will hope that this surgery puts a firm end to any issues.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top