Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

The Opener: Rangers Triumph, Garver, NLCS Game 7

By | at

Three items on the morning docket, including one half of the World Series matchup being finalized…

1. Rangers win the AL pennant:

The Rangers held a 3-0 lead after the first half-inning of Game 7, and an 8-2 lead after the top of the fourth.  Ergo, there ultimately wasn’t much drama as Texas vanquished the Astros by an 11-4 final in the deciding game of the American League Championship Series.  While many of the Rangers’ bats were cooking in the game, the club was led once again by Adolis Garcia, who went 4-for-5 with a pair of solo home runs.  Garcia captured ALCS MVP honors for hitting .357/.400/.893 with five homers and 15 RBI over 30 plate appearances in the seven games, setting a new MLB record for most RBI in a single postseason series.

The road team won all seven games in the unusual series, as the Rangers had to fight back from a 3-2 series deficit by winning both Games 6 and 7 in Houston.  Texas has to hope this road-team trend doesn’t continue, as the Rangers will now hold homefield advantage in the World Series over whichever team comes out of the National League.  The Rangers are 0-2 in their two previous trips to the Fall Classic (in 2010 and 2011), and are still looking for the first championship in franchise history.  As for the Astros, the disappointing loss might lead to some major change heading into 2024, as manager Dusty Baker has indicated that he might be retiring.

2. Mitch Garver’s status:

One downside for the Rangers was a possible injury to Mitch Garver, who was hit in the ribs by a Bryan Abreu pitch in the sixth inning. Garver was in obvious discomfort after the HBP but remained in the game and scored on Nathaniel Lowe’s home run, though he was replaced by a pinch-hitter in his next at-bat.  Garver seemed to be feeling okay when interviewing with Ben Verlander following the game, though the designated hitter underwent some x-rays.

There hasn’t yet been word on the outcome of those tests, but needless to say, there will be some nervousness in Arlington unless Garver is cleared for the World Series.  Acting as the Rangers’ regular DH throughout the playoffs, Garver has hit .294/.368/.529 with two homers in 38 PA, continuing his hot hitting from the regular season.

3. NLCS Game 7:

With one league champion decided, we get to enjoy some more nail-biting Game 7 action tonight when the Phillies host the Diamondbacks in the final game of the National League Championship Series.  Trailing 3-2 in the series heading into yesterday’s Game 6, the D’Backs stayed alive with a 5-1 victory, built on the strength of a three-run rally in second inning.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham each hit solo homers, and Ketel Marte continued his bid for NLCS MVP by going 2-for-5 for his fourth multi-hit game of the series.

Brandon Pfaadt (5 2/3 scoreless innings) and Ranger Suarez (5 1/3 shutout frames) each looked very sharp in Game 3 of the NLCS, and they’ll face off again as the scheduled starters for Game 7.  That said, both teams figure to have relatively quick hooks, as pretty much every pitcher on either roster will be available for some usage in the winner-take-all showdown.  On a historical note, this will be the first time in the Phillies’ 141-year franchise history that the club will play a Game 7 of a playoff series.

Padres Permit Bob Melvin To Interview For Giants’ Managerial Position

By | at

Padres manager Bob Melvin has been given permission by the team to interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Andrew Baggarly.  “Melvin has emerged as the favorite in San Francisco, with league sources indicating that he received assurances he would be a top candidate before he agreed to participate in the interview process,” Lin and Baggarly write.

Reports surfaced two days ago that the Giants were temporarily halting their search for a new manager while waiting to hear back from rival teams for their go-ahead to interview employees.  Melvin was chief among this new group of candidates, and it could very well be that the Giants were specifically waiting on the Padres on whether or not Melvin would be allowed to speak with the division rival.  Melvin is still under contract with San Diego through the end of the 2024 season, though rumors have swirled for months about Melvin’s future with the club and his relationship with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.

By this point, it would seem like an upset if Melvin doesn’t end up as San Francisco’s next manager.  While the official interview has yet to take place, Melvin and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi are quite familiar with each other — Melvin was the Athletics’ manager when Zaidi began his baseball career in Oakland’s front office over a decade ago.  Lin and Baggarly note that it could create an even more awkward situation between Melvin and Preller if Melvin didn’t end up getting the Giants job, so perhaps regardless of what happens with the San Francisco interview, Melvin might not be back as the Padres’ skipper in 2024.

Back in September, Lin and Ken Rosenthal delved into the internal issues that have plagued the Padres organization even before their disappointing 2023 season.  Chief among these problems is the allegedly frosty relationship between Melvin and Preller, though both men have downplayed the idea of any discord.  After the Padres finished with only an 82-80 record this season, there was plenty of speculation that either Melvin or both Melvin and Preller could be fired, yet club chairman Peter Seidler gave a full vote of confidence to his management team at season’s end.  Preller also stated soon afterward that “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” seemingly putting the matter to rest.

However, many pundits felt a parting was coming sooner rather than the later, especially when the Giants’ managerial position became open after Gabe Kapler was fired.  The past ties between Melvin and Zaidi made the veteran skipper a logical candidate from day one, assuming the hurdle of the Padres’ clearance for an interview could be jumped.

It is possible the Padres and Giants might work out a trade to officially send Melvin to the Bay Area, or the Padres might simply see this as an opportunity for a fresh start.  Melvin leaving for another job rather than being fired, as Baggarly and Lin note, would save the Padres the $4MM owed to the manager in salary for the 2024 season.  This tracks with the Padres’ overall plan to cut costs next season, ranging from both internal financial matters like a manager’s salary to player payroll.

If Melvin was to be hired by the Giants, San Diego would suddenly be in need of a new manager, though Lin and Baggarly cite bench coach Ryan Flaherty and coach Mike Shildt as possible candidates to take over the job.  Best known for his days as an Orioles utilityman, Flaherty has been on the Padres’ coaching staff for the last four seasons, and was promoted to bench coach prior to the 2023 campaign.  Prior to hiring Melvin, Preller’s previous two managerial hires were Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, who (like Flaherty) had never managed at the MLB level.

On the other hand, Shildt is a former skipper, managing the Cardinals from 2018-2021 and leading the club to postseason appearances in the last three of those seasons.  Shildt was rather surprisingly fired after the 2021 season due to what Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described as “philosophical differences,” and the Padres then interviewed Shildt for the managerial vacancy that was eventually filled by Melvin.  San Diego ended up hiring Shildt anyway that winter for a player development position, and he moved into a coaching role this past season.

Coaching Notes: Giants, Angels, Athletics

By | at

Bob Melvin’s upcoming interview with the Giants has only increased the speculation that the Padres manager could soon be taking over in San Francisco’s dugout, to the point that Melvin’s prospective coaching staff might already be coming into view.  According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Melvin “would be likely” to bring Padres third base coach Matt Williams along with him from San Diego to San Francisco.  Williams was a four-time All-Star with the Giants during his playing career, and two other former Giants players are also under consideration for coaching roles — Pat Burrell as a new hitting coach, and Ryan Vogelsong as the new pitching coach.

Justin Viele, Pedro Guerrero and Dustin Lind are the Giants’ trio of incumbent hitting coaches, yet given the club’s lackluster offense in 2023, it isn’t surprising change might be coming.  The pitching staff’s results were more up-and-down, yet Slusser notes that pitching coach Andrew Bailey “is extremely well regarded” and has often been considered by other teams for jobs in their organizations.  If Vogelsong did become pitching coach, the Giants could look to retain Bailey as bench coach or as the director of pitching, but Bailey also might prefer a new role with a team nearer to his family on the East Coast.  Vogelsong has been working as a roving instructor within the Giants organization, while Burrell has been the hitting coach for the Giants’ Single-A affiliate.

More on other coaching situations around baseball…

  • The Angels have hired Dom Chiti as a minor league pitching coordinator, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (via X).  Chiti previously worked for Los Angeles as a special assistant and then as bullpen coach from 2020-22, before joining the Mets as their bullpen coach for the 2023 season.  The 64-year-old Chiti has over four decades of experience in a variety of coaching and front office roles with the Angels, Mets, Rangers, Indians, and Orioles.
  • The Athletics are parting ways with bullpen coach Mike McCarthy, Fangraphs’ David Laurila writes.  2023 was McCarthy’s first year on Oakland’s coaching staff, and his first year on a big league staff altogether.  Before joining the A’s, McCarthy spent five seasons coaching for the Triple-A affiliates of the Padres and Twins.

Astros Hoping To Sign Jose Altuve To New Extension

By | at

With Jose Altuve again starring in a deep Astros postseason run, it isn’t any surprise that the club wants to retain its longtime star.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston wants to keep Altuve in the fold for the rest of his career, and the time for negotiating is nearing, as 2024 is the final year of the second baseman’s current contract.

“The Astros privately say their focus is squarely on Altuve,” Nightengale writes, which is perhaps notable simply because Altuve isn’t the only prominent Houston player approaching the end of his deal.  Alex Bregman will also be a free agent after the 2024 season, and Ryan Pressly might also hit the open market since he and the Astros share a $14MM mutual option for 2025 (though this option vests if Pressly makes at least 50 appearances in 2024).  Justin Verlander could also be a free agent if he doesn’t pitch at least 140 innings next season, but if he does hit that threshold, he’ll gain a $35MM player option for 2025 that he might well choose to exercise for what would be his age-42 season.

Of course, nothing is stopping the Astros from also exploring extensions with any of these other players.  However, it could be that Altuve is seen as a particular priority given his status as a franchise icon.  The story of Altuve’s rise from obscure international prospect to cornerstone player has been well-documented, and there isn’t much indication that Altuve is slowing down in his age-33 season.  Though he was limited to 90 games in 2023 due to a broken thumb and an oblique strain, Altuve still hit .311/.393/.522 over 410 plate appearances during the regular season, and he has a .970 OPS over 24 PA in the first five games of the ALCS.

Altuve’s current deal overwrote the last two years of his previous extension with the Astros, and guaranteed him $151MM over the course of the 2020-24 seasons.  Another five-year extension that began with the 2025 season would therefore run through Altuve’s age-39 season, and quite possibly the end of his career.

Estimating a dollar figure for a hypothetical Altuve extension is an interesting exercise, considering that Altuve is represented by the Boras Corporation (who also handled the second baseman’s previous deal).  The majority of Scott Boras clients generally head to free agency to let the open market determine their earnings, and Altuve’s performance certainly would seem to still merit a hefty salary even through his mid-to-late 30’s.  That said, it also seems plausible that Altuve might at least consider some level of hometown discount, thus freeing some more money for the Astros to keep the core together.  Besides Bregman, Pressly, and Verlander, there is also the trio of Framber Valdez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Urquidy all nearing free agency once their arbitration eligibility is up following the 2025 campaign.

The Astros have surpassed the luxury tax threshold only once (in 2020) in franchise history, as Houston has been able to sustain its run of success while keeping their payroll in relative check.  While frequently landing within the top 10 of Opening Day payrolls, Houston ranked only 14th in spending at the start of this season.  The Astros have been willing to let some stars walk, such as Carlos Correa after the 2021 season or Verlander last winter (before Verlander was re-acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline).

Other extensions have also played a role in the Astros’ budget management, as the team was proactive in locking up some young stars relatively early in their careers.  Bregman was signed to a five-year/$100MM extension, Yordan Alvarez to a six-year/$118MM extension, and Cristian Javier to a five-year/$64MM long-term pact.  Alvarez, Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. are the only Astros players on the books beyond the 2025 season.

AL Notes: Abreu, DiPuglia, McKinstry

By | at

A bad back might’ve saved Jose Abreu’s season, as the first baseman’s debut season in Houston didn’t start to turn around until a two-week stint on the injured list in August.  Abreu was batting only .234/.291/.343 in 464 plate appearances prior to the IL trip, yet as Astros hitting coach Alex Cinton told ESPN’s Buster Olney, Abreu “was a different guy” after returning to action.  Abreu improved to .248/.315/.530 with eight home runs over 130 PA in the rest of the regular season, and he has a .962 OPS and four homers over 39 PA during Houston’s postseason run.

Beyond just letting his back heal, the IL trip also seemed to serve as a mental reset for Abreu after the grind of his first four-plus months.  After signing a three-year, $58.5MM contract with Houston last winter, Abreu was perhaps too eager to contribute to his new team.  Olney writes that “Cintron began to view Abreu’s relentless diligence as a problem.  As Abreu relentlessly took batting practice, his coaches believed, he was sapping his energy day after day — and likely prolonging his slump.”  Fortunately for all parties, Abreu has found his form at the ideal time for an Astros team that is one victory away from a return trip the World Series.

More from around the American League….

  • Former Nationals assistant GM Johnny DiPuglia is interviewing with the Rays about a front office job, according to reporter Francys Romero (via X).  DiPuglia had been working as Washington’s international scouting director since 2009 and assistant GM since 2020 before he resigned from the organization in September, reportedly due to the Nationals’ desire to reduce his salary.  It isn’t surprising that the Rays (and presumably other teams) have interest in hiring DiPuglia, who has over 30 years of experience of scouting and front office experience, and a rich history of success in finding and developing Latin American talent.
  • Zach McKinstry is planning “to live in the weight room” this offseason to improve his core strength, the Tigers utilityman tells Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  This represents a departure from last winter, when McKinstry was rehabbing from a torn groin suffered in August 2022, though he played through the injury without going on the IL.  The interruption to his usual offseason routine may have been a reason behind McKinstry’s underwhelming .231/.302/.351 slash line over 518 PA last season, not to mention the increased workload as a whole.  McKinstry had played in only 121 MLB games and received 364 PA from 2020-22 as a member of the Dodgers and Cubs before taking on a regular role with Detroit in a variety of different positions.  Petzold notes that McKinstry is out of minor league options, so there’s less of a margin for error as the uilityman will try to retain his spot as a multi-positional option.  “I’ll try to get my rotational strength a little bit stronger.  Hopefully, it can last me a little bit longer throughout the whole season, not just one month, two months or three months,” McKinstry said.

Poll: What Team Will Craig Counsell Manage In 2024?

By | at

With four teams looking for new managers at the moment, the Brewers are hoping they won’t be the fifth, as team owner Mark Attanasio has made clear his preference that Craig Counsell remains in the dugout.  The logic is obvious — Counsell has a 707-625 record in his nine seasons as Milwaukee’s manager, leading the Brewers to playoff appearances in five of the last six seasons.  Widely regarded as one of baseball’s better skippers, Counsell has been a key ingredient in the Brewers’ success, and thus a very intriguing candidate for other teams looking for a new leader.

Counsell’s contract is officially up on October 31, and though Attanasio approached the manager about a new deal earlier this year, Counsell’s preference was to wait until the season was over to delve into contract negotiations.  With another NL Central title on his resume, Counsell is in a pretty nice negotiating position to command a big raise from the Brewers, and continue both his run as manager and his longstanding ties to the organization.  In addition to his stint as manager, Counsell also grew up in Wisconsin, his father worked for the Brewers’ community relations division, and Counsell played six of  his 16 MLB seasons as a player in a Brewers uniform.

As per recent reports from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, “Counsell will stay if he’s paid what he believes is fair,” according to a source linked to the Brewers.  That said, it isn’t yet clear how far along (if at all) the two sides are in negotiations, even with the October 31 deadline getting closer.  It could be that Counsell is waiting until November to officially hit the open market and gauge his worth with some other offers….and one high-spending team in particular looms as a natural candidate for Counsell’s services.

Rumors swirled for years that the Mets were targeting David Stearns as the next president of their baseball operations department, and the pursuit finally ended in September when New York hired Stearns as the new PBO.  With Stearns seen as likely to eventually join the Mets, there was lots of speculation that Counsell might be looking to join his former Brewers boss in Queens, and that speculation only intensified when Stearns fired Buck Showalter in one of his first acts in charge of the front office.

There hasn’t been a ton of public buzz about the Mets’ managerial search, apart from the fact that the team is looking to hire a skipper from outside the organization.  Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski and Rangers associate manager Will Venable have both been linked to the position, though Venable took him out of the running by declining an interview opportunity.  The relative lack of news about the Mets’ search could indicate that they’re waiting to get a chance to speak with Counsell, or it could simply mean that the team is keeping its cards close to the vest.  It is also possible that Stearns might be a little preoccupied with other business given the unexpected resignation of GM Billy Eppler, though the managerial search was expected to take priority over the efforts to find a new general manager (who would act as Stearns’ chief lieutenant).

If not Milwaukee or New York, we can’t rule out the other teams with managerial openings as possible landing spots for Counsell.  Hiring Counsell would give the Guardians an appropriately big name to help fill the void left by Terry Francona, and the Guards have a Brewers-esque approach in trying to perpetually contend despite a limited payroll.  The Giants have a lot more spending capacity and seem to be looking for something of a culture change, so hiring Counsell could certainly provide such a spark to the organization.  The Angels could be going through something of a transition phase if Shohei Ohtani leaves, though there’s obvious appeal in managing Ohtani (if he re-signs) and Mike Trout, and Counsell could welcome the challenge of ending the Halos’ playoff drought.  Beyond these teams, we might also consider other teams who could be more open to a managerial change if Counsell enters the market, with the Padres perhaps still a club to watch in this regard.

With all of this in mind, where do you think Counsell will be managing next season?

(poll link for app users)

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

By | at

Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2023 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is reportedly worth around $20.5MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2024 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks (the Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded).

The Mariners, Orioles, Rays, and Reds stand out as at least somewhat realistic candidates to sign a QO-rejecting free agent this winter.  Seattle is expected to make some level of pursuit of the biggest free agent of all in Shohei Ohtani, while the Orioles and Reds might feel the time is right to augment their young core with a bigger name, likely a pitcher.  Tampa Bay might be willing to stretch its usual payroll standards a bit this winter, though it remains to be seen if the Rays would splurge on a major free agent.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

Many of these clubs could be prominent players in free agency, perhaps further emboldened by their relatively lesser draft penalty.  St. Louis is aiming to acquire at least three starting pitchers, the Giants are hoping to finally land a big name after their failed pursuits of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter, the Cubs could be looking to make a big splash to replace Cody Bellinger (if Bellinger can’t be re-signed at all), and the Red Sox might be looking to return to contention in a big way once their new front office leader is hired.

The Team In Limbo: Angels

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Angels have exceeded the $233MM CBT threshold.  While this most specifically relates to the compensation Los Angeles may receive if Ohtani signs elsewhere, it also impacts what the Halos would have to give up if they wanted to add another qualified free agent.

If the Angels ducked under the CBT line, they’ll be in the previous group.  But, if the league’s calculations determine that the Angels were in excess of the tax threshold, they’ll be included with the other…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties.  For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2024 draft.

Ohtani’s name looms large in this category, as several of these clubs might not proceed with major offseason business until they know one way or the other if they can land the two-way superstar.  Conversely, a team that isn’t willing to give out the record-setting contract it will likely take to land Ohtani could instead more aggressively pursue some relatively less expensive qualified free agents, looking to land a player while some other suitors are occupied.  Of course, the higher penalty could also mean that some tax-payor teams instead look for upgrades on the trade market, or at some free agents (i.e. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Jeimer Candelario, Eduardo Rodriguez) who aren’t eligible for the qualifying offer.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick.  For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool.  The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Receive For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

By | at

The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter reportedly worth around $20.5MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2023 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of the draft.  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  In the 2023 draft, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.

Of the pending free agents on these teams’ rosters, the Twins’ Sonny Gray is the most clear-cut candidate to receive a qualifying offer.  Jorge Soler is expected to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Marlins, and Miami is likely to issue him a qualifying offer if Soler does indeed hit the open market again.  The Mariners’ Teoscar Hernandez is also a good QO candidate, even though the outfielder is coming off a relative down year and might conceivably choose to just take the $20.5MM payday in the hopes of a producing a better platform season in advance of the 2024-25 free agent class.  On the other hand, since this offseason’s market is thin on position players, Hernandez and his representatives might feel this is the better time to reject a QO and pursue a lucrative multi-year deal.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).  Cody Bellinger is a lock to receive and reject the Cubs’ qualifying offer, as the outfielder/first baseman will be looking to cash in after his big bounce-back season in 2023.  Aside from Bellinger, none of the other pending free agents for these teams look like plausible QO candidates.

The Team In Limbo: Angels

It should be noted that these lists of teams and their CBT status won’t be officially finalized until December.  Usually, it isn’t difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $233MM tax threshold, and sites like Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season.  However, this winter w have a relatively rare case of a team whose status won’t be known until December, as the Angels are by all accounts right on the borderline of the $233MM figure.

The Angels’ waiver wire purge in late August moved some salary off the books, but according to some reports at the start of September, the Halos remained slightly over the $233MM mark.  Cot’s has the Angels just over the line at an estimated $236MM CBT number, while Roster Resource’s projection has the Angels avoiding a tax penalty with a $228.7MM CBT number.

Given how the Angels have the offseason’s most prominent free agent in Shohei Ohtani, it is no small matter for the club to know exactly what draft compensation they might receive should Ohtani (after obviously rejecting the QO) depart for another team.  While Ohtani re-signing in Anaheim is the best-case scenario, the next best option would be a compensatory pick in the 68-70 range for the Angels in next year’s draft…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees

…and the least palatable option would be the lesser compensation should the Angels indeed end up over the CBT line.  If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.  In the 2023 draft, these picks fell between 132nd and 137th overall.

Regardless of the Angels’ status, 2023 still set a new record for highest number of teams in excess of the luxury tax threshold — the previous mark was six teams, in both 2022 and 2016.  Of the 8-9 clubs surpassing the CBT this season, three (the Mets, Yankees, and Padres) also surpassed the $273MM threshold, which means that they’ll face the further penalty of having their first-round pick dropped back by ten slots in the 2024 draft.

Several prominent free agents from the CBT payors are either locks or strong candidates to receive qualifying offers, including the Padres’ Blake Snell and Josh Hader, the Phillies’ Aaron Nola, and the Blue Jays’ Matt Chapman.  The Dodgers’ J.D. Martinez is a QO candidate on paper, but with Los Angeles heavily rumored to be making a run at Ohtani, the Dodgers might pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out of a concern that he might accept, thus tying up the team’s designated hitter spot.

NL West Notes: Bogaerts, Haselman, Rockies

By | at

While Manny Machado’s recovery from elbow surgery will cloud the Padres’ infield picture for the start of the 2024 season, it is possible the Friars might explore moving Xander Bogaerts off of shortstop as soon as next year, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes.  The public defensive metrics were pretty mixed on Bogaerts’ glovework last season, as he received +3 Outs Above Average, -4 Defensive Runs Saved, and an exactly even 0.0 UZR/150 over 1285 2/3 innings at shortstop.  “Team officials have talked among themselves about the possibility of asking Bogaerts to move to the right side of the infield,” Lin writes, with perhaps even first base being an ideal destination from a defensive standpoint, setting up an infield of Bogaerts at first base, Jake Cronenworth at second base, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and Machado at third base.

For his part, Bogaerts would prefer second base over first base if a position change did happen.  When talking to Lin and other reporters last month, Bogaerts said “we’ll cross that bridge when we get there” in terms of changing his defensive role, and he had “no idea” if the Padres were going to broach the subject in the coming months.  Depending on Machado’s injury rehab, Kim is expected to handle third base until Machado is ready to return to fielding duty, though naturally any of the Padres’ plans could be altered by upcoming offseason moves.

Some other items from around the NL West….

  • Angels third base coach Bill Haselman “has been talked about” in regards to the Giants’ managerial job, a source tells John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Haselman played in parts of 13 MLB seasons from 1990-2003, and has five years of coaching experience on Major League staffs — as a bullpen coach and first base coach for the Red Sox in 2004-06, and as a catching instructor and third base coach in Anaheim over the last two seasons.  Haselman also has a lot of experience as a minor league coach and manager in the Angels’ and Dodgers’ minor league systems, and his time with the Dodgers overlapped with Farhan Zaidi’s tenure as Los Angeles’ general manager from 2014-18.  It remains to be seen if Haselman is more than a speculative candidate to be the Giants’ next skipper, though Zaidi (San Francisco’s president of baseball operations) appears to be expanding his search beyond internal candidates.
  • The Rockies and Mariners discussed a trade last offseason that would’ve brought some pitching to Colorado, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.  The specifics of the trade talks weren’t revealed, though it makes sense that the pitching-needy Rockies would’ve at least checked in with Seattle, given how rumors swirled last winter that the M’s were open to moving one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen.  Given how the Rox ended up signing Flexen as a free agent back in July, it is fair to wonder if he was perhaps the particular name under discussion.  Purely speculatively, the Rockies also might’ve aimed higher in their pitching goals, perhaps dangling Brendan Rodgers to the Mariners (who needed second base help) as part of a trade package involving George Kirby or Logan Gilbert.  Colorado had some degree of talks with the Marlins last offseason about a Rodgers-for-Edward Cabrera swap, and Saunders suggest that Rodgers “might be a trade candidate again” in the coming months.  It would be something of a sell-low move for the Rockies at this point with Rodgers, as while he has two remaining years of arbitration control, he only played 46 games last season due to a dislocated shoulder.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top