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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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It’s never a good sign when one offseason’s big need is still the biggest need next winter, as the Marlins continue to look for quality hitters.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, SP: $51MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $21MM club option for 2027)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $41MM through 2025 (includes $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
  • Jorge Soler, OF: $24MM through 2024 (Soler has opt-out clauses after both the 2022 and 2023 seasons)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $4.5MM through 2023
  • Richard Bleier, RP: $3.75MM through 2023 (includes $250K buyout of $3.75MM club option for 2024)

Total 2023 commitments: $41.8MM
Total future commitments: $125.95MM

Option Decisions

  • Joey Wendle, IF: $6.3MM mutual option for 2023, $75K buyout if Marlins decline (Wendle is still under arbitration control)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Commitments

  • $30MM owed to the Yankees as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade (money to be paid out in 2026-28)

Free Agents

  • None

Derek Jeter’s surprise departure as the Marlins’ CEO back in February ended up being a bad omen for the team’s season, as Miami stayed on the outskirts of the playoff race until July, before struggling to a 69-93 record and fourth place in the NL East.  Along the way, some other front office personnel (largely Jeter’s hires) also left the organization, and news broke at the end of the season that Don Mattingly wouldn’t be returning for an eighth year as the manager.

The search for Mattingly’s replacement is ongoing, with such names as Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol cited as two of an unknown number of candidates.  It remains to be seen what direction Miami’s search might take, though Espada or Grifol would both present a fresh voice from outside the organization, which might be just what the Marlins need to help get things on track.

In fairness to Mattingly, however, he was far from the root problem with the club, as the Marlins again had one of the league’s worst offenses.  Miami’s team batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, home runs, runs scored, and RBI total were all lower in 2022 than in 2021, despite how the Fish tried to upgrade their lineup last winter.  Unfortunately for the Marlins, Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings all hit poorly, with Soler (98 wRC+) the only one even close to league-average offensive production.  With Garcia and Stallings delivering negative-fWAR production, the quartet combined for only 0.6 fWAR, with that number further impacted by Garcia, Soler, and Wendle all missing significant time on the injured list.

Injuries were a problem in general for Miami, most notably the stress fracture in Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s back that ended up halting the second baseman’s season on June 28.  Chisholm was playing some excellent baseball at the time of his injury, hitting .254/.325/.535 with 14 homers over 241 plate appearances.  Though he already has a pretty lengthy injury history during his short MLB career, Chisholm will return as the centerpiece of Miami’s lineup in 2023, and is one of only a few Marlins seemingly assured of a spot on the team.

Beyond Chisholm at second base, Garcia looks to be the regular right fielder and Soler will get time as both a left fielder and DH.  The Marlins can only hope that Garcia and Soler can bounce back next year, as neither player is a realistic trade candidate (barring a swap for another team’s undesirable contract) in the wake of their poor seasons.  Soler can opt out of the remaining two years of his contract, but there’s no chance he’ll walk away from his remaining $24MM owed this offseason, as he wouldn’t be able to match that salary on the open market.

It also doesn’t look like Stallings is going anywhere, as it seems probable that Stallings and Nick Fortes will be the primary catching duo.  Fortes’ .230/.304/.392 slash line over 240 PA wasn’t extraordinary, but it was still markedly better than Stallings’ production, so the Marlins might end up deploying more of a timeshare behind the plate than a strict starter/backup situation.

2022 was such a rough year both offensively and defensively for Stallings that it’s easy to forget he was a sought-after trade chip at this time last year, and the Marlins had to surrender a notable package of three young players to acquire him from the Pirates in November.  It would take even more of a trade haul to land, say, Sean Murphy from the A’s or any of Alejandro Kirk/Gabriel Moreno/Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays this winter, so another splashy deal might not be in the works if the Marlins do want a catching upgrade.  Free agent Willson Contreras would seem to be out of their price range, but someone like Gary Sanchez might be feasible, or perhaps an Omar Narvaez or Mike Zunino if the Marlins wanted to take a shot on catchers who have been good hitters in the past but are coming off poor seasons.

Catcher is one of many positions that are in a state of flux for the Marlins.  While the team has pretty much the entire 2022 position-player core under team control for 2023, most of those options simply weren’t good enough last year, and the Marlins may just be ready to move on from some players who have been in the organization for some time.

It’s possible that general manager Kim Ng might approach this group as a collective backup plan.  Any of Stallings, Fortes, Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, or even youngsters Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez could feasibly be in Miami’s Opening Day lineup….or on another team’s roster via trade, should Ng find a quality upgrade at any of these positions who brings better speed or contact.  While the Marlins aren’t going to unload this entire group, it also doesn’t seem likely that all of the aforementioned seven players will still be in Miami next season.

De La Cruz and Sanchez are the most likely to return, given their youth, years of team control, and the lack of certainty over Soler and Garcia in the outfield.  Center field also isn’t an easy position to fill, so since Sanchez can at least play passable defense at the position, the Marlins may be inclined to give him another shot at establishing himself at the MLB level.

Having both Wendle and versatile speedster Jon Berti gives Ng some flexibility in how she addresses the position player side of the roster, even if Wendle and Berti might both be best suited for super-sub roles than as true everyday players.  The Marlins will decline their end of Wendle’s mutual option, yet the utilityman would still be arbitration-eligible through 2023 and will likely again be part of the infield picture despite his struggles last year.  If the Fish did want to move on from Wendle, youngsters Jordan Groshans or Charles Leblanc could take on bigger roles in the infield mix.

Cooper, Rojas, and Anderson are all free agents after the 2023 season, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Fish non-tender Anderson this winter after two consecutive injury-plagued and non-productive seasons.  This could make third base a particular target area, if the Marlins wanted to go beyond a Wendle/Berti/Groshans fallback plan.

Rojas has been a team leader for years, and was still an excellent defensive shortstop despite playing with a significant wrist injury for over two months.  It should be noted the Marlins were at least open to the idea of dealing the shortstop last summer since Rojas’ name was floated in trade talks with the Yankees, but since shortstop is a harder position to fill, Miami might just count on Rojas regaining some hitting stroke once healthy.

Cooper has also been a speculated name in trade rumors in the past, yet his checkered injury history likely played some role in why he has remained with the Marlins.  It could be that the first baseman again stays put just because the Marlins need hitting, and Cooper has been a pretty consistent bat when healthy — he was even an All-Star in 2022 before being waylaid by injuries and a lengthy slump in the second half.  With Lewin Diaz reportedly no longer seen as a viable regular, retaining Cooper might be the easiest way for Miami to address first base.

Gauging the size of the Marlins’ overhaul will also depend on how much Ng has to spend this winter.  Owner Bruce Sherman bumped the payroll from around $57MM in 2021 to just under $80MM in Opening Day payroll in 2022, though this increase was rather modest (perhaps too modest for Jeter’s liking, according to some reports) and still left the Marlins among the sport’s lowest spenders.  Sherman is apparently willing to boost the payroll a little more this winter, though the size of that increase isn’t known, and it’s probably safe to assume that Miami isn’t suddenly going to be making nine-figure contract bids.

If the Garcia/Soler signings have made ownership wary of free-agent spending, that again leaves the trade market as perhaps Miami’s best route for significant roster help.  Since the Fish still possess one of baseball’s more enviable collections of young pitchers, Miami is reportedly open to discussing anyone besides Sandy Alcantara or top prospect Eury Perez.

It is safe to assume that the Marlins would prefer to deal more unproven arms than, say, frequent trade target Pablo Lopez, even if Lopez would bring back a nice return.  Selling high on Edward Cabrera or Jesus Luzardo might be more feasible, as both pitchers have a lot of talent but have also already had injury problems early in their careers.  Moving either Trevor Rogers or Elieser Hernandez would be more of a sell-low, but Rogers in particular still has trade value despite a rough 2022 performance.

There is a bottom to this pitching depth, as the Marlins aren’t going to start offloading too many arms that are ticketed for spots in their own rotation.  The “you can never have too much pitching” mantra also applies, considering that Miami’s depth took some injury hits with Max Meyer’s Tommy John surgery and Sixto Sanchez’s ongoing shoulder troubles.  In general, however, Ng has plenty of options to weigh in considering pitching trades, as Miami’s variety of arms could bring back anything from All-Star caliber bats to more building blocks for the future.

It also helps to have an ace like Alcantara on hand as the rotation’s stabilizing force.  The right-hander was the Marlins’ other big expenditure of the 2021-22 offseason, as Miami inked Alcantara to a five-year, $56MM extension that covered his three arbitration-eligible years and at least his first two free agent years.  Alcantara responded to his security by delivering the best season of his career, posting a 2.28 ERA over a league-high 228 2/3 innings.

Extensions probably don’t figure to be a big part of Miami’s offseason business until the later stages of Spring Training, though it is possible the Fish could try to lock up Lopez if he isn’t dealt.  Extending Chisholm is another possibility, yet the Marlins might prefer to see the second baseman get at least one healthy year on his record before making a long-term commitment.

While the Marlins got good results from their rotation last year, the bullpen was much more inconsistent.  Major additions might not be in the offing, however, due to cost, the number of young starters in the system who could be eased into the majors via bullpen work, and because the Marlins could just count on some injured arms having healthier years.  Dylan Floro is the incumbent favorite for the closer’s job, as Tanner Scott held the job for much of 2022 but had too much trouble avoiding walks.

With the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all still looking like contenders, it will be tough for Miami to make a lot of headway in the NL East.  The Marlins’ pitching corps will always give them a chance, and getting even closer to league-average hitting might help the club make some noise next year.  With this in mind, expect the Marlins to be one of the league leaders in trade speculation this winter, linked to any number of notable bats on the rumor mill.  More clarity on the payroll situation would also help, as the ability to add even a Soler-sized contract would help expand the options available to the front office.

Dodgers “Expected” To Retain Dave Roberts As Manager

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The Dodgers’ postseason run is over much earlier than expected, and however the team might respond to its upset loss in the NLDS, moving on from manager Dave Roberts doesn’t appear to be under consideration.  Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that Roberts “is expected” to return to the dugout next season.

The news isn’t overly surprising, considering that Roberts has yet to even begin the three-year contract extension he signed last March.  2022 was the final season of Roberts’ previous contract with the team, and his new deal will keep him as manager through the end of the 2025 season.

Through seven seasons in Los Angeles, the 50-year-old Roberts has enjoyed enough success to put him on a Hall of Fame path.  Roberts has a 632-380 record over those seven years, and as Harris notes, Roberts’ .632 winning percentage is the highest of any skipper in MLB history who has managed at least 315 career games. (Negro League managers Bullet Rogan, Vic Harris, and Rube Foster are the only managers with a higher winning percentage in any recognized major league.)  The Dodgers have reached the postseason in all seven of Roberts’ seasons, won six NL West titles, three NL pennants, and one World Series championship in 2020.

Amidst that tremendous resume, of course, winning “only” one title has brought some criticism Roberts’ way, given how the Dodgers have been favored almost every one of their trips to the playoffs.  This year, L.A. dominated the league en route to a franchise record 111 wins in the regular season, only to be upset by the Padres in four games in the NLDS.  It marked just the second time in Roberts’ tenure that the Dodgers didn’t win at least one playoff round.

The decision to remove Tyler Anderson after five shutout innings in Game 4 loomed large after the Padres took the lead in a five-run seventh inning, and it joined a rather lengthy list of bullpen decisions that have backfired on Roberts in the postseason.  Beyond just the bullpen, however, the normally dangerous Los Angeles lineup went into a collective slump in the NLDS, going 5-for-34 (.147) with runners in scoring position.  It’s hard to blame Roberts for such a breakdown, and yet given the Dodgers’ consistent track record of regular-season success, nothing short of another Series championship will fully quell the criticism.

Mets GM Billy Eppler Discusses Payroll, Offseason

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Mets GM Billy Eppler and manager Buck Showalter met with reporters (including Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News and Newsday’s Tim Healey) earlier this week, wrapping up the season and giving some idea about what to expect from the club this winter.  Unsurprisingly, those plans may well include more spending, as owner Steve Cohen isn’t planning to cut payroll after the Mets set a new luxury tax high of approximately $298.8MM in 2022.

Eppler said that Cohen has already provided a “pretty close” idea of what the 2023 budget will be, with the idea that extra spending will act as a “bridge” to keep the Mets competitive until their farm system develops the depth to start consistently generating talent from within the organization.

“You want to keep as much of your talent as possible,” Eppler said.  “That’s why Steve has said what he has said, which is: We’ll use some financial strength to keep us out of that position so that we can build something long-term.”

Hindsight is always 20-20 after a first-round playoff exit, especially when the Padres and Phillies have now advanced to the NLCS thanks to contributions from players who joined the team during the season.  For all of the splashy moves the Mets made last winter, New York had a relatively quiet trade deadline, yet Eppler said he had “no regrets” about his transactions.

Of those midseason pickups, Daniel Vogelbach hit .255/.393/.436 with six homers in 183 plate appearances after being acquired by the Pirates in late July.  Other midseason acquisitions like Darin Ruf, Mychal Givens, and Tyler Naquin all struggled after coming to Queens, but Eppler was pleased with the Mets were able to land Vogelbach  “without robbing the future in a significant way.”  Landing a bigger trade target would have cost the Mets some of the top prospects they hope can start contributing in the big leagues as soon as 2023.

In terms of offseason business, New York’s first priority is its own prominent set of free agents, a group that includes Jacob deGrom (when he opts out of his contract), Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Chris Bassitt (if he declines his end of a mutual option), Taijuan Walker (if he declines a player option) and potentially Carlos Carrasco.  The Mets seem likely to exercise their $14MM club option on Carrasco for 2023, though Eppler didn’t give any hints in this direction.

As to the more clear-cut free agents in deGrom, Diaz, and Nimmo, Eppler said the Mets will “have conversations with all three” before the free agent market opens: “We’ll get a sense of understanding their expectations, they’ll get a sense of understanding ours, and we’ll see if something can be executed.  It’s talking to all three.  It’s not prioritizing one over the other.”

In terms of specific needs, Eppler downplayed a potential need for more power in the lineup, saying “If it’s in the cards and it can happen, that’s one way to do it.  But still honoring getting on base is an important aspect….I’m a fan of on-base percentage, I’m a fan of OPS in kind of simple terms.”

The Mets had a productive offense overall, as their collective 116 wRC+ was topped by only the Dodgers and Blue Jays.  However, in terms of the power categories, the Mets were eighth of the 30 teams in slugging percentage, tied for 15th in home runs, and 16th in isolated power.  This lack of extra pop stood out in the playoffs, as the Mets combined for three homers and a .326 slugging percentage in their three games against the Padres.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The NLCS?

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There were plenty of times this season when it was unclear whether or not either of the Phillies or Padres would even reach the postseason, and even when the playoffs began, Philadelphia vs. San Diego seemed like a very unlikely scenario.  And yet, this is the matchup heading into the National League Championship Series, as both the Phils and Friars have upended the baseball world with four upsets.

The Phillies looked in deep trouble heading into the ninth inning of Game 1 of their Wild Card Series matchup with the Cardinals, but Philadelphia overcame a 2-0 deficit with a six-run outburst in the top of the ninth, en route to a 6-3 victory.  An Aaron Nola gem helped shut out the Cardinals in Game 2, clinching the series and setting the Phillies up for a date with their NL East rivals, the defending World Series-champion Braves.  Splitting the first two games in Atlanta, the Phillies lineup was seemingly buoyed by a raucous Citizens Bank Park crowd, outscoring the Braves by a 17-4 margin in Games 3 and 4 to move deeper into October.

Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper has carried the offense, hitting .435/.480/.957 over his 26 plate appearances in the playoffs.  Jean Segura and Brandon Marsh have also been on fire at the plate, and while other Philadelphia batters have been generally less consistent, multiple players have delivered at least one big hit — for instance, Rhys Hoskins’ three-run homer in Game 3 of the NLDS, or J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park homer in Game 4.  On the pitching side, Nola has led the way with 12 2/3 scoreless innings of work, while the much-maligned Phillies bullpen has done its job in protecting leads.

The Padres are getting much of their offense from a superstar (Manny Machado), but also from the back end of their lineup, as Trent Grisham, Austin Nola, and Jurickson Profar have combined for 23 of San Diego’s 56 hits in the postseason.  Grisham has also been an unexpected power source, hitting three home runs in the playoffs after delivering only a .341 slugging percentage in the regular season.  Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell have all pitched well in the rotation, and the bullpen has been almost untouchable.  Apart from a disastrous Adrian Morejon outing that saw him charged with four runs without a single out, the rest of San Diego’s relievers have a cumulative 0.73 ERA over 24 2/3 innings.

This well-rounded attack helped the Padres outlast the Mets in the Wild Card Series, as San Diego beat up on Mets ace Max Scherzer in Game 1, and Musgrove and the bullpen held New York to just a single hit in a 6-0 win in the Game 3 clincher.  Moving into the NLDS, the Padres exorcised years of demons by defeating the arch-rival Dodgers in four games, winning the final three contests after Los Angeles won Game 1.  The Dodgers also held a 3-0 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh inning of Game 4, but the Padres launched a five-run outburst to take the lead and finally claim some bragging rights in the SoCal rivalry.

This is the first-ever postseason meeting between the two franchises.  Philadelphia last reached the NLCS in 2010 (and hadn’t been in the playoffs altogether since 2011), while San Diego’s last NLCS trip came all the way back in 1998.  There isn’t a ton of shared history between the two teams, though some bad blood surfaced in June when Snell hit Harper with a pitch, fracturing the outfielder’s thumb and sending Harper to the injured list for two months.

Who is your pick to win this battle of the Nola brothers, and battle of the NL underdogs?

(poll link for app users)

AL East Notes: Moreno, Rutschman, Red Sox

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With Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and top prospect Gabriel Moreno all vying for playing time in 2023, there has been constant speculation over which of these catchers could be dealt to help the Blue Jays address other needs.  However, a trade isn’t necessarily a sure thing, as one (at least temporary) answer could be to move Moreno out from behind the plate, as noted by Shi Davidi in a piece for Baseball America.  Moreno played in a handful of games at first and third base in the minors, and the final game of the Blue Jays’ 2022 season saw him play as a second baseman and left fielder for the first time in his pro career.

“We have to be open to everything.  That’s why you’ve seen him play in different positions,” Toronto GM Ross Atkins told Davidi and other reporters.  “But we have to be open to any way to maximize our 40-man roster at this point, and (catching) is clearly an area of depth.”

A catcher athletic enough to play other positions carries extra value, and depending on how well Moreno adapts, his ultimate future might not even be behind the plate.  For instance, the Diamondbacks find themselves looking for catching help since former catcher-of-the-future Daulton Varsho has delivered such strong glovework in the outfield.  Finding a way to fit Moreno, Kirk, and Jansen into the same lineup would be a boon for the Jays, as Moreno doesn’t have much left to prove at Triple-A.  Returning Moreno to the minors “is not our best outcome, most likely, given his progress,” Atkins said.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles GM Mike Elias has already stated that his team plans to spend more in 2023, though the size and nature of the payroll boost will naturally only be determined as the offseason progresses.  Not all of the Orioles’ expenditures would have to be on new talent, as The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz opines that “arguably no move made this winter would benefit [the team’s] future more than ensuring [Adley] Rutschman is a part of it.”  Locking up Rutschman to a big multi-year extension would follow the pattern of teams looking to lock up star young talents, as we’ve seen with the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and the Braves’ Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider just within the last couple of months.  There isn’t necessarily any rush for the O’s to make a deal since Rutschman only just finished his rookie season, yet extending the catcher or any of Baltimore’s many up-and-coming young stars would seem like a logical next step in the front office’s process.
  • The Red Sox are one of many teams facing some tough 40-man roster decisions this winter, and NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase takes a look at some of the prospects under consideration to receive roster spots.  Some decisions are easier than others, as shortstop/center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela will certainly be added to the 40-man following a great season at the high-A and Double-A levels.  Rafaela hit .299/.342/.539 with 21 homers and 28 steals over 522 combined plate appearances at the two levels in 2022, and also flashed some excellent defense at multiple positions.

Quick Hits: Turner, Cardinals, Girsch, Shaw

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Trea Turner is back in the Dodgers lineup for tonight’s critical Game 4 of the NLDS, even though Turner suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger in yesterday’s game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).  Turner felt good enough in pregame warmups to play, and play in the field at shortstop, turning down Roberts’ option of only acting as the designated hitter.  X-rays were negative on Turner’s finger, and though Roberts said Turner “might take a day” with such an injury if it had happened in regular-season play, it wasn’t anything that would land a player on the injured list.

The Dodgers can hardly afford to lose such a key regular as they face elimination, down 2-1 to the Padres in the series.  Turner has also been one of Los Angeles’ hottest bats in the series, with two homers and a 1.154 OPS over his 13 plate appearances.  After singling in the eighth inning of Game 3, Turner hurt his finger while diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt.

More from around baseball…

  • General manager Michael Girsch is one of several members of the Cardinals front office whose contracts are up now that the season is over, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he is hopeful of retaining all the staffers.  Girsch is the most prominent name, working in the organization since 2006 and acting in the GM role since June 2017, when Mozeliak was also promoted from GM to the PBO position.  Girsch’s history in the organization and the Cardinals’ track record of recent success would seemingly make it likely that he remains on a new contract, though that same organizational success could also naturally make Girsch or other front office members attractive to other clubs looking to make hires.
  • The Guardians outrighted Bryan Shaw off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he accepted the assignment rather than opt for free agency.  In somewhat unusual fashion, Shaw has also remained with the Guards throughout their postseason run, acting as taxi squad depth and continuing his season-long role as a mentor to Cleveland’s young pitchers.  “There’s no point in going home and just sitting there. I would rather stay here with these guys, root everyone on, and be here for moral support,” Shaw told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  A veteran of 12 Major League seasons, Shaw had limited success on the field this year, posting a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians’ bullpen.

Phillies Notes: NLDS, Robertson, Long

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The Phillies continue to dance their way through the playoffs, clinching the NLDS with an 8-3 win over the Braves in today’s Game 4.  Two trade deadline acquisitions from the Angels played key roles in Philadelphia’s victory — Brandon Marsh’s three-run homer in the second inning gave the Phils an early lead that they would never relinquish, and starter Noah Syndergaard allowed one earned run over three innings of work.  J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park homer in the third inning was another highlight, as Realmuto became the first catcher to ever hit an inside-the-parker during a postseason game.

Entering the playoffs as the lowest seed in the National League bracket, Philadelphia upset the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series and have now eliminated the defending World Series champions.  The Phillies will now head to the NLCS for the first time since 2010, and will await the chance to oust another higher-seeded opponent in either the Padres or the Dodgers.

More from the City of Brotherly Love…

  • David Robertson was left off the NLDS roster due to a calf strain suffered while jumping to celebrate Bryce Harper’s home run in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.  Talking to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber and other reporters about the “embarrassing” injury, Robertson said he received an injection last Monday, and is hoping to be available when the NLCS begins on Tuesday.  The veteran right-hander has yet to throw off a mound, but he is throwing on flat ground.  Another deadline addition, Robertson posted an impressive 2.70 ERA and 30.3% strikeout rate over 23 1/3 innings for the Phillies after being acquired from the Cubs.
  • Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long has been considered for past managerial openings with the Nationals and Mets, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter) that Long is again gaining some “buzz” as a managerial candidate.  Long is in his 16th consecutive year as a big league hitting coach and his first in Philadelphia, after past stints with the Nationals, Mets, and Yankees.  He worked mostly as a hitting coach in the minors prior to his MLB work, but Long was a manager in the Royals’ farm system from 1997-99.  Long also spent all eight of his seasons as a player in Kansas City’s minor league ranks, so speculatively, these past ties could be of interest to a Royals team looking to replace Mike Matheny as manager.  The Marlins, White Sox, Rangers, and Blue Jays are the other teams in search of a new skipper, though Toronto may be leaning towards retaining interim manager John Schneider, and the Rangers are reportedly favoring ex-Giants manager Bruce Bochy.

Report: Cubs Interested In Jose Abreu

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The Cubs could be looking across town for a lineup boost, as Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link) reports that longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu may be a free agent target for the Wrigleyville club.  2022 was the last season of Abreu’s three-year, $50MM contract with the Sox.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series, the White Sox are the only team who can negotiate with the first baseman for the time being, and a new deal can’t be ruled out.  Abreu has often spoken of his desire to remain with the Sox for his entire career, and the front office has likewise regularly praised Abreu’s contributions on and off the field.  Abreu’s last trip to the open market ended up not being very open, as his representatives didn’t even talk to other teams before Abreu accepted Chicago’s qualifying offer prior to signing his three-year pact.

This time around, however, there is a little more doubt that Abreu will remain on the south side of Chicago.  Abreu recently said that there hadn’t been any extension talks with the White Sox front office, and with Abreu turning 36 years old in January, the Sox might prefer to move onto younger options at first base.  Shifting Andrew Vaughn or Gavin Sheets to first base would help the White Sox defensively, and moving on from Abreu’s contract would also free up some payroll space for a team that already has quite a bit of money committed to the 2023 team.

However, since the team’s 2022 payroll already set a new franchise record by topping the $193MM mark, owner Jerry Reinsdorf may have no problem with continued spending to keep Abreu in the fold.  It’s not like Abreu is slowing down much in his mid-30’s — he hit .304/.378/.446 with 15 homers over 679 plate appearances in 2022, with strong hard-contact, strikeout, and walk rates.  Abreu’s power numbers took a drop, yet thanks to improvements in his batting average and on-base percentage, Abreu’s wRC+ was better in 2022 (137) than in 2021 (125).

Any number of teams will have interest in Abreu if he is indeed open to leaving the White Sox, and some of those suitors might be more clear-cut contenders than a Cubs team who went 74-88 in 2022.  Joining the Cubs would allow Abreu to keep his family in Chicago, of course, though it wouldn’t necessarily present a quicker path to winning baseball.

That said, there is enough flux in the NL Central that the Cubs could get back into the hunt with a big offseason, and has been some indication from both ownership and from the front office that the Cubs are turn back towards competing after two years of rebuilding.  Even last winter, the signings of Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to multi-year contracts were indicative that the Cubs didn’t plan on staying in rebuild mode for too long, even if Stroman’s deal does contain an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.

An Abreu signing might fit into this shorter-term model, as a three-year deal might be the most Abreu could hope to achieve as he heads into his age-36 season.  His continued production should still merit a comfortable average annual value on that next contract, yet teams will naturally be wary about committing too many years to a player of Abreu’s age.

Signing Abreu would add some veteran stability to the lineup, and immediately address a hole at first base.  Prospect Matt Mervis posted huge numbers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2022 and seems ready for a shot at the big leagues, though entrusting Mervis with an everyday job right off the bat could be a risky move.  If both Abreu and Mervis were in the fold, the Cubs could toggle the two between first base and DH, allowing for both some rest days for Abreu and time for Mervis to show that he can do against MLB pitching.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox are trying to bounce back from a last-place finish in the AL East, but they face the possible departure of a longtime star.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Trevor Story, IF: $120MM through 2027 (includes $5MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Story can opt out after 2025 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $60MM through 2025, $20MM club option for 2026 (Bogaerts can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Chris Sale, SP: $55MM through 2024, with $20MM club option for 2025 ($20MM of guaranteed money is deferred; Sale can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $39MM through 2025 (Padres covering all but the annual minimum MLB salary; Hosmer can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Garrett Whitlock, SP/RP: $17.75MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout of $8.25MM club option for 2027; Red Sox also have a $10.5MM club option for 2028, with a $500K buyout)
  • Enrique Hernandez, IF/OF: $10MM through 2023
  • Matt Barnes, RP: $9.75MM through 2023 (includes $2.25MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2024)

Option Decisions

  • James Paxton, SP: $13MM club options for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, to be exercised at the same time; if Red Sox decline the options, Paxton has a $4MM player option for 2023
  • Tommy Pham, OF: $6MM mutual option for 2023 ($1.5MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

With a 78-84 record in baseball’s most competitive division, the Red Sox suffered their fifth last-place finish in the last 11 seasons.  It is the latest dip in a strangely inconsistent era for the franchise, as the Sox have also captured two World Series titles from five postseason appearances in that same 11-year stretch.  The presence of certain tentpole stars (i.e. David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers) have helped the Sox make these quick turn-arounds, and yet that stability isn’t as apparent heading into 2023.

Bogaerts’ fate is the biggest question facing the Red Sox as the offseason begins, as the shortstop is expected to test free agency and opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his contract.  Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and members of the ownership group have all said both publicly and privately that they want to retain Bogaerts, the shortstop wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, and Bogaerts has repeatedly stated that his preference would be to remain in Boston.  However, the Sox reportedly made a curiously low offer (one additional year and $30MM added onto Bogaerts’ current deal) during Spring Training extension talks, and already seemed to be laying the groundwork for Bogaerts’ departure by signing All-Star shortstop Trevor Story last offseason.

Since free agency doesn’t officially open until five days after the World Series is over, the Sox still have some time to negotiate with Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras.  While it isn’t totally uncommon to see notable players work out new extensions this close to the open market, the air of finality that has seemed to hang over Bogaerts’ Red Sox tenure creates plenty of doubt that a new deal can indeed be reached, before or after the Sox have to start bidding against other teams for Bogaerts’ services.

Between Bogaerts and outright free agents like J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, this offseason could mark something of the end of an era in Boston, especially after longtime catcher Christian Vazquez was already dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline.  That said, the Vazquez deal was the only rebuild-esque move made at the deadline, as the Sox otherwise kept most of their veterans and even added more experienced help in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer.

That attempt at a last-minute push for a wild card berth well fell short, leaving the Sox slightly above the luxury tax threshold (and the only one of the six tax-paying teams to not reach the playoffs).  The actual $900K in taxes is a relative drop in the bucket, but the Red Sox now face added penalties in regards to qualifying-offer free agents this winter.  Should the Sox sign a QO-rejecting free agent, they’ll have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft.  Also, the compensatory pick that the Red Sox would themselves receive if a QO-rejecting free agent — like Bogaerts or Eovaldi — signed elsewhere will now fall after the fourth round of the draft.

The luxury tax penalty adds another wrinkle to a busy offseason for Bloom.  It is worth mentioning that Bloom’s immediate predecessors in the job (Dave Dombrowski and Ben Cherington) were each fired after four years or less, even though both had overseen a World Series champion during their tenure.  While ownership may be more patient this time around, Bloom has thus far sandwiched a trip to the 2021 ALCS between two last-place finishes, so he could be facing extra pressure to get the Red Sox back to contention.

In fairness, the Sox were a lot more competitive than your usual last-place team, and might have been contenders in any other division.  (Boston had an ugly 26-50 record against AL East opponents but were a dominant 52-34 against non-division clubs.)  The Red Sox might’ve made more of a charge in 2022 if they’d had had only an average number of injuries, yet the AL East is so competitive that the Sox can hardly just run things back and hope for better health next year, especially with so much key personnel slated for free agency.

All of the potential departures do leave a lot of open payroll space heading into the winter, and yet though Bloom is the CBO of a team that surpassed the luxury tax threshold, splashy moves haven’t really been Bloom’s forte.  Story’s six-year, $140MM deal is far and away the largest contract given to a free agent during Bloom’s tenure, as the Red Sox have mostly preferred to look for value in shorter-term free agent deals and lower-profile trades and acquisitions.

Could this be the year that Bloom truly splurges on the open market?  Signing Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander would be a big way of upgrading the pitching staff, or making a push for Aaron Judge would add more fuel to the fire of the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry.  While Bloom’s front office has routinely at least checked in with many of the top free agents of the last few seasons, his propensity to swing trades is another avenue for roster improvement.

For instance, Boston has the financial flexibility to take on a pricey contract from a team looking to cut payroll — whether that big contract belonged to a player the Sox are targeting, or a player whose deal the Sox are willing to eat in order to obtain another player they really want.  With so much money coming off the books, the Red Sox might be able to reload their roster and still stay under next year’s $232MM tax threshold.

Story’s first Boston season wasn’t a triumph, as he hit .238/.303/.434 in 396 plate appearances and played in only 94 games due to a hairline fracture in his wrist and then a late-season heel contusion.  He is the obvious choice to move back to his old shortstop position if Bogaerts leaves, though Story could potentially remain at second base if the Red Sox signed another big-name free agent shortstop (such as Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, or Dansby Swanson).  Such a scenario may be less likely than Boston spending its biggest money at another position, but if any of the major shortstop are open to an opt-out clause after a couple of seasons a la Story, there could be room for the Red Sox to strike.

Keeping Story at second base might be Boston’s preference over moving him to shortstop and going with the respectable but unspectacular collection of internal second-base options.  The Red Sox reached an early extension with Enrique Hernandez to keep him off the free agent market, but Hernandez might ultimately offer more value as a regular center fielder.  Even if Hernandez only sees limited time in the infield, Christian Arroyo and Rob Refsnyder — who hit very well after joining the Sox on a minors contract — figure to take a good chunk of the playing time.  Another acquisition could be added to this group, and the Red Sox would also love to see former top prospect Jeter Downs get on track at the MLB level after struggling in his last two minor league seasons.

Speaking of top prospects, Triston Casas made his Major League debut in 2022 and had a respectable .766 OPS over his first 95 PA in the Show.  Casas figures to get the bulk of playing time at first base, with Hosmer on hand as a veteran complement since Hosmer isn’t likely to exercise his own opt-out clause.  It’s something of an imperfect combination since both Casas and Hosmer are left-handed hitters, yet DH at-bats could be available if Martinez isn’t retained, or the Red Sox might end up parting ways with Hosmer if another roster upgrade opportunity presents itself.

After Vazquez was traded, the Reese McGuire/Connor Wong tandem delivered quality defense, and McGuire hit well at the plate.  Boston might look to emulate the Astros, Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Rays as contenders who prioritize defense and game-calling over offense from the catcher’s position, but Bloom has said that the Red Sox will at least explore other options.  A reunion with Vazquez might not be entirely out of the question, or the Sox might pursue a longer-term catcher like Athletics trade candidate Sean Murphy.

Devers is both the biggest sure thing on Boston’s roster heading into 2023, and also its biggest long-term question mark.  The third baseman is coming off another strong offensive year, but he is also a free agent after the 2023 season, and (as with Bogaerts) extension talks this past spring didn’t yield much progress.  Bloom has been emphatic that Devers isn’t a trade candidate this offseason or in the foreseeable future, and even if more contract negotiations don’t lead to a new deal, it is probable that the Red Sox wouldn’t consider swapping Devers until the trade deadline at the earliest.

Martinez was still an above-average (119 wRC+) force at the plate in 2022, yet his power numbers dropped off and he made a full-on transition to designated hitter, without a single game played in the field.  With Martinez now entering his age-35 season, his time in Boston could be up, as the Red Sox may prefer to rotate multiple players through the DH spot, or give the bulk of DH time to a younger player with more upside.

The outfield is the most logical spot for a new addition, as Hernandez and Alex Verdugo are the only incumbents likely to see a lot of playing time.  Franchy Cordero is a non-tender candidate, former top-100 prospect Jarren Duran has yet to establish himself either offensively or defensively in limited MLB playing time, and Pham’s mutual option (like virtually all mutual options) isn’t likely to be exercised.  Pham might be brought back on a smaller contract and the Red Sox won’t give up on Duran this soon, but one or even two proven regulars would go a long way towards adding more pop to the lineup.

There are plenty of interesting bats available in free agency, ranging from Judge at the top of the outfield market to other prominent names like Brandon Nimmo, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, and more.  Teams like the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Giants also stand out as potential trade partners thanks to their surplus of outfield talent, plus any number of other possibilities could emerge given how other clubs adjust their rosters.

While the Red Sox lineup was lacking in power in 2022, it was still a pretty productive (ninth in runs scored) unit overall, even if some of that production will need to be replaced or upgraded.  A different challenge is faced with the pitching staff, as the Sox didn’t get good results from either the rotation or bullpen, but have to address some potential key departures.

The advanced metrics didn’t much like Michael Wacha’s work last season, but his one-year, $7MM contract ended up being a nice investment for the Red Sox thanks to Wacha’s 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings.  The ageless Rich Hill continued to post solid numbers even in his age-42 season, and another return to Boston is always a possibility, even if Hill has floated the idea of only pitching for part of the season, or pitching for a clear-cut contender.

Re-signing Wacha or Hill might just require one-year deals, but a larger commitment would be necessary to retain Eovaldi, even coming off an injury-hampered season.  Eovaldi was limited to 109 1/3 innings and allowed some of the most hard contact of any pitcher in the league, but still delivered a 3.87 ERA.  The right-hander was an All-Star as recently as 2021, yet Eovaldi’s checkered injury history and the fact that he’s entering his age-33 season might make the Sox wary of signing him to another longer-term contract.

Chris Sale is a cautionary case in this regard, as he has pitched only 48 1/3 regular-season innings over the life of his five-year, $145MM extension (covering the 2020-24 seasons).  The southpaw was limited to only 5 2/3 innings in 2022 due to a variety of injuries, including a stress fracture in his rib, a finger fractured by an Aaron Hicks comebacker, and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident.  While Sale is expected to be ready to go for Spring Training, the Sox can’t be sure exactly what they’re getting next season — just getting Sale back onto a mound would count as a win at this point, let alone getting him back to his old ace form.

Sale, Nick Pivetta, and rookie Brayan Bello are penciled into three rotation spots, while a pair of other young arms in Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford could either be depth options or in competition for a job in Spring Training.  The Red Sox figure to keep at least one spot open in the rotation for a competition, or to give Garrett Whitlock another look as a starter.  However, acquiring two more starters to eat innings and pitch at the front of the rotation would make this entire group look a lot more capable of competing against the AL East’s big offenses.  James Paxton may also be a factor if he (as expected) exercises his $4MM player option in the wake of another injury-marred campaign, yet Paxton has pitched only 21 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, and none at all in 2022 due to a lat strain while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

John Schreiber was one of the bright spots of the season, as the 28-year-old unexpectedly emerged as Boston’s most consistent reliever and a regular ninth-inning choice.  Matt Barnes also got some save opportunities down the stretch, as after a rough start to the season and a stint on the 60-day injured list, Barnes returned from the IL in great form.  Between these two, Whitlock (if he returns to the bullpen), and Ryan Brasier (who pitched much better than his 5.78 ERA would indicate), the Red Sox have some interesting pieces in the pen, even if more depth is certainly needed.  It has never been Bloom’s style to invest too heavily in the pen, so expect more lower-level relief acquisitions rather than a pursuit of a big name like Edwin Diaz.

When the Red Sox finished in last place in 2020, Bloom responded with a big flurry of offseason moves, which provided enough upgrades for the Sox to finish only two games shy of a berth in the 2021 World Series.  Of course, the 2021 team had Bogaerts, Devers, and a resurgent Martinez and Eovaldi all firing on all cylinders, and Devers might be the only member of that group wearing a Boston uniform in 2023.  As aggressive as Bloom has been in reshaping the Red Sox with under-the-radar or mid-tier transactions, some big swings may be necessary to get the Sox back into contention this time around.

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