Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

GM Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Offseason, Manager Search

By | at

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins discussed some of his team’s offseason plans in an end-of-season chat with reporters (including the Athletic’s John Lott, and Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith) on Tuesday.  Some of the highlights…

  • The team has been in contact with a few managerial candidates already, though the Jays are still “gathering information” on their list of candidates, Atkins said.  Initial phone interviews with 10 or more candidates will begin within the week, with a final field of around five candidates then selected for in-person interviews with various members of the Jays organization.  The connection between the manager and the franchise as a whole is an important factor, as Atkins describes his ideal hire as possessing an “understanding what it takes for communication to keep not just [a] 25-man roster, but also the 40-man roster, the 200 minor-league players, the 100-plus scouts, the 100-plus coaches and medical staff people pulling in one direction and feeling connected.  That person has to be an organizational leader and spokesperson, not just a leader of the 25-man clubhouse.”
  • Bench coach DeMarlo Hale and Double-A manager John Schneider are two of the in-house candidates, and it seems as if the Blue Jays are leaning towards people with some type of managing or coaching background.  The new Jays manager “will have experience leading,” Atkins said.  “That is something extremely important for us.”  The new manager must also be adept at requesting and interpreting the available analytical information, with Atkins specifying that while the manager (and not the front office) will still handle all in-game decision-making.  Beyond these requirements, the Blue Jays will “cast as big a net as time and bandwidth can handle” in looking for a new manager, Atkins said.
  • The Jays will be open to re-signing Marco Estrada or possibly bringing back J.A. Happ, who was dealt to the Yankees at the trade deadline.  Atkins said that Toronto will first focus on the trade market before looking at free agents, however, and “We’d be looking for complementary pieces, and I think the focus would be slightly more short-term.”  This would seem to count out a pursuit of Happ, who wouldn’t require a long contract (he turns 36 later this month), but his solid performance will likely price him out of the Jays’ range.
  • There will be a focus on adding arms to the organization, with Atkins noting “we need to turn some of our position-player depth into pitching.  That doesn’t mean we won’t trade from our young core or guys that haven’t even gotten to the major leagues.”  Some of the names on the move could be prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, as the Jays have a 40-man roster crunch forthcoming and not everyone can be protected.  As it is, Atkins expects to lose at least one player in the Rule 5 Draft in December.
  • Beyond pitching, Atkins said Toronto will also prioritize improving the team’s poor defense and baserunning.
  • After Troy Tulowitzki spent the entire 2018 season on the disabled list, Atkins said that the veteran shortstop’s status for 2019 “starts with health.”  When asked if Tulowitzki can still be an everyday player amidst the Jays’ younger infield options, Atkins answered “If Tulo’s healthy and performing at a very high rate, then yes. If he’s healthy and his performance isn’t to the calibre that major-league environments demand, then no.”  Tulowitzki has been adamant about remaining at shortstop, though it remains to be seen if he can handle any position at all given his lengthy injury history over the years; in addition to missing 2018, Tulowitzki averaged just 98 games a season from 2012-17.  Obviously Tulowitzki has virtually no trade value in the wake of his lost year, so the Jays might have to consider releasing him and eating the $38MM still owed to him through 2020.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Showalter, Duquette, O’s, Brasier

By | at

While many simply point to the Yankees’ payroll as the reason for their success, general manager Brian Cashman has spent over a decade quietly assembling an analytics department that rivals any in baseball, as Marc Carig and Eno Sarris detail in a fascinating piece for The Athletic (subscription required).  Current assistant GM Michael Fishman was hired as the Yankees’ first full-time analyst in 2005, and today, New York has an estimated 20 employees on their analytics team.  This ties them with the Dodgers as the largest such staff in baseball by Carig and Sarris’ count, though they note that teams are notoriously secretive in providing any details about their information-gathering practices.  The increased focus on analytical data has impacted all levels of the baseball operations and scouting departments, with the results apparent in how the Yankees have built their outstanding bullpen, all their pitchers’ high velocity and spin rate on their four-seam fastballs, and in the sheer number of current Major League players that the Yankees originally signed or drafted.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • We could know more about Buck Showalter’s future with the Orioles today, as The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (Twitter link) reports that the manager is expected to meet with ownership and the “sense is” Showalter will be offered some type of job to remain with the franchise.  It isn’t clear if that job would be a front office role or if Showalter could continue on as manager in the wake of Baltimore’s 115-loss season.
  • Questions also surround the job status of Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette, though Duquette didn’t give any hints about his situation, simply telling Dan Connolly (subscription-only piece) “that’s an appropriate question for ownership.”  Though Duquette’s contract is up at the end of October, he is still proceeding as if he’ll still be with the organization in 2019.  For instance, Duquette is considering joining at least five other Orioles talent evaluators in attending the showcase for top Cuban prospects Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr., and Sandy Gaston on Friday.  The O’s have been heavily linked to these youngsters due to the space in the team’s international bonus pool, which Connolly estimates as roughly $6MM available to be spent.
  • Hard-throwing Ryan Brasier has become a key contributor to the Red Sox bullpen, posting a 1.60 ERA, 4.14 K/BB rate and 7.8 K/9 over 33 2/3 frames for the AL East champs.  It has been quite the showing for the unheralded 31-year-old, who had just nine innings of MLB experience (with the Angels in 2013) prior to this season.  As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings (subscription required) writes, it was less than a year ago that a homesick Brasier was pitching in Japan and intent on returning to North America for the 2018 campaign.  He sent e-mails to all 30 MLB teams over the offseason in search of a job, finally landing a minor league deal with the Sox, and then excelling after his contract was selected in July.

Cubs Notes: Maddon, Hamels, Chavez

By | at

The offseason introspection has already begun for the Cubs in the wake of last night’s 13-inning loss to the Rockies in the NL wild card game, and the team’s early exit from the postseason caught many inside and outside the Cubs organization by surprise.  Here is some of the initial aftermath of Chicago’s loss, and what questions the club will be facing this winter…

  • One of the more pressing matters could be Joe Maddon’s future, as the manager’s contract is up after the 2019 season.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), “talk has persisted within the industry that [Theo] Epstein and Maddon are not always on the same page,” and the Cubs’ elimination could allow a reason for a change in the dugout.  As Rosenthal notes, however, Maddon did well to lead the Cubs to 95 wins despite a number of down years from several hitters and a lack of production (either due to injury or under-performance) from Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, and Brandon Morrow — the front office’s three big signings from the 2017-18 offseason.
  • Maddon received votes of confidence from players such as Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant, and Javy Baez, who all praised the manager to reporters (including Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times).  Despite the Cubs’ issues this season, Rizzo said that “we still figured out a way to win.  That’s all credit to [Maddon].  Without his leadership here, guys aren’t playing the way they play.  [Rookie] David Bote is not coming up here and playing the way he plays without Joe’s leadership.”
  • Cole Hamels is hoping the Cubs pick up his $20MM option for 2019, telling The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (Twitter link) and other reporters “Hopefully, I did everything I can to convince them that [exercising the option] would be something that would be valuable.”  Few trade deadline acquisitions had a bigger impact than Hamels this season, as the southpaw posted a 2.36 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 3.22 K/BB rate over 76 1/3 IP after coming to Chicago in a deal with the Rangers.  The $20MM club option can be bought out for $6MM, leaving the Cubs with a $14MM decision on the veteran lefty’s services.  The Cubs already have over $70.5MM committed to Darvish, Chatwood, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana (assuming Quintana’s own club option is exercised) next season, though even with that heavy investment in the rotation, one would think Chicago is leaning towards retaining Hamels given how well he pitched.
  • Another midseason trade acquisition was even more adamant about returning to the Cubs, as ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera reports (via Twitter) that Jesse Chavez was telling teammates “If I’m not wearing this [uniform] next year, I’m done.”  Chavez, also acquired from the Rangers in a separate July trade, was almost untouchable over 39 innings out of Chicago’s bullpen, posting an eye-popping 1.15 ERA and 8.4 K/BB rate, striking out 42 batters and issuing just five walks.  Chavez turned 35 last August, though it would be surprising to see him hang up his glove if a return to Chicago wasn’t in the cards, as one would imagine several teams would have interest in the impending free agent.  It could also be that Chavez was simply speaking in the heat of the moment, after the grueling elimination game.

Giants Notes: GM Search, Pence, Hundley, Holland

By | at

Some items out of San Francisco…

  • Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold, and Blue Jays VP of baseball operations Ben Cherington have all been linked to the Giants’ general manager position, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  Going into more detail on Cherington, Cafardo believes Cherington’s use of both traditional scouting and modern analytics makes him an ideal all-around candidate for both the Giants and Mets jobs, as Cherington is reportedly also under consideration in New York.
  • Hunter Pence may have played his last game in a Giants uniform on Sunday, but the veteran outfielder tells reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he isn’t ready to retire.  In fact, he said he plans to “reinvent myself” after two unproductive seasons; Pence intends to overhaul his swing this offseason, and is planning a winter ball stint in Mexico or the Dominican Republic.  “I feel strong, I feel healthy, I feel fast. I’m going to work on flexibility and changing my swing completely.  I want to still play. It’s uncertain — hopefully I can find an opportunity, and I’m going to look for it,” Pence said.
  • Free agents Derek Holland and Nick Hundley are both hoping to return to the Giants in 2019, the duo told reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic).  Holland signed a minor league deal last February but will command a much more significant commitment this winter after posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.52 K/BB rate over 171 1/3 innings.  He’d be a nice addition to the Giants’ rotation if the price is right, given how many lingering injury questions remain within the team’s pitching staff.  Hundley has spent the last two years with the Giants as Buster Posey’s backup, and Pavlovic notes that the team would prefer a veteran backup presence behind the plate given that Posey will be recovering from hip surgery.

Central Notes: Mauer, Perez, Bader, Cardinals, Kang, Pirates

By | at

It isn’t yet clear if Joe Mauer will retire or return for the 2019 season, though if Sunday’s game was his last hurrah in the big leagues, it was a special one.  Mauer went 1-for-4 in the Twins’ 5-4 victory over the White Sox, though the most memorable moments included Mauer’s two daughters running onto the field to greet him at first base for the national anthem, as well as one final appearance behind the plate.  Making his first appearance at catcher since 2013, Mauer donned his old gear to catch the first pitch of the ninth inning before being substituted out of the game to a standing ovation from the Target Field fans.  “It’s just been an emotional roller coaster,” Mauer told reporters, including MLB,com’s Jarrid Denney.  “I’m not 100 percent sure [about retiring or not], and like I said, I want to make sure I have time just to take a deep breath and really be behind that decision. But I couldn’t have asked for a better last day of the 2018 season, and I’m looking forward to just taking a breath and spending some time with my girls, my family, and we’ll go from there.”

Here’s more from both the AL and NL Central divisions…

  • Salvador Perez will undergo surgery this week to repair ligament damage in his thumb, as per an announcement from the Royals (Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star was among those to report the news).  Perez said he has been playing through the injury for the last six weeks, and that while he’ll face some rehab time, it won’t keep him from being ready for Spring Training.  “Twelve weeks [off], then start to hit,” Perez said of his immediate timeline.  While Perez hit 27 homers this season, he contributed only a .235/.274/.439 overall batting line in 544 plate appearances, as his bad thumb and a Grade 2 MCL tear suffered in March likely kept him from operating at close to 100 percent all year.
  • Harrison Bader will be the Cardinals’ incumbent center fielder going into 2019, GM Michael Girsch told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch and other media today.  “It’s pretty obvious that he’s the best defensive center fielder we have.  He’s hit more than well enough to earn the first shot at it,” Girsch said.  Bader posted 3.6 fWAR in his first extended stretch of Major League action, hitting .264/.334/.422 with 12 homers and 15 steals over 427 PA, while also displaying outstanding glovework (+23.3 UZR/150, +11 Defensive Runs Saved) over 607 1/3 innings in center.
  • While Bader is in center and Marcell Ozuna has left field spoken for, right field is a less certain area for the Cardinals, despite several options.  The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required) thinks St. Louis could even target Bryce Harper to solidify the position, since the team has the funds to make a big splash in free agency.  That would be an eyebrow-raising signing to say the least, in no small part because the Cards have right field options available, though all have question marks.  Jose Martinez is a poor defender, Tyler O’Neill is unproven as a Major Leaguer despite a promising start, and Dexter Fowler endured an injury-shortened and mediocre 2018 season.  It would likely require trades of both Fowler and Martinez to fit Harper, which would be difficult given Fowler’s struggles and big contract.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington told reporters (including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel) that if Jung Ho Kang returns to the team next season, it will be as a third baseman only.  Forty-nine of Kang’s 187 Major League games have come at shortstop, though it doesn’t appear as though the Bucs have any interest in utilizing him even as a backup.  As to the question of Kang’s $5.5MM club option, the Pirates “have significant interest in seeing if there’s a middle ground” if the option isn’t exercised, Huntington said, though no contractual decision has yet been made.  Injuries and legal issues have kept Kang out of Major League Baseball for almost all of the last two seasons, so it isn’t surprising that the Bucs are seeing if they could bring Kang back at a lower price, given that his market as a free agent could be rather limited.
  • Since Kang isn’t being considered for the backup shortstop role if he does return, Jordy Mercer could be a fit to return as a utility infielder.  Huntington said the Pirates will “keep the door open” about possibly re-signing Mercer and Josh Harrison, though Mercer seems the better bet of the duo to return, as Mercer can fill the part-time role behind Kevin Newman at short.

Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi

By | at

The Seibu Lions will make left-hander Yusei Kikuchi available this winter via the posting system, according to a report from Sankei Sports (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times).  The 27-year-old isn’t eligible for full free agency until 2020, but reports from earlier this year indicated that Kikuchi was interested in testing himself in Major League Baseball, and it had been expected that the Seibu Lions would accommodate his request.

Kikuchi immediately becomes one of the most intriguing members of the 2018-19 free agent class, as he has posted strong numbers over eight pro seasons (all with Seibu Lions, apart from five starts in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year).  Kikuchi has a 2.81 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.43 K/BB rate over 1035 1/3 career innings, and particularly stood out after recording a 1.97 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over a career-best 197 2/3 frames in 2017.

Despite taking a bit of a step back results-wise (3.08 ERA, 3.40 K/BB rate, 8.4 K/9) this season, Kikuchi still drew quite a bit of attention from Major League scouts.  Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently wrote that “most teams have been to Japan to see him this year,” specifically naming the Royals, Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies as interested suitors.  Evaluators from the Brewers, Giants, Red Sox, and Rangers also recently watched Kikuchi, as per the Kyodo News’ Jim Allen (Twitter link).

For an idea of what Kikuchi brings to the mound, Fangraphs’ Sung Min Kim provided a scouting report before the season, while MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi had a look at Kikuchi’s 2018 season back in August.  Kikuchi has a strong slider and a fastball in the 92-94mph range (that has touched 98mph at its fastest) as his two primary pitches, and he has worked both a changeup and a curveball into his repertoire this season, as former big leaguer and current Rakuten Golden Eagles pitcher Frank Herrmann told Morosi.  Herrmann warned that Kikuchi’s slider wasn’t as effective this year as it was in 2017, which led to Kikuchi leaning more heavily on his two secondary pitches.  Kim used Patrick Corbin as a partial comp for Kikuchi, as another left-hander with a strong fastball-slider combination, with the caveat that Kikuchi’s usage of the curve roughly 10% of the time is a notable difference between he and the Diamondbacks hurler.

Kikuchi’s durability could also be an issue, as shoulder problems have bothered him at several points during his career, including this season.  Kikuchi “had not reached the qualified amount of innings pitched in a season until 2016,” Kim writes.  The southpaw is listed at just 6’0″ and 194 pounds, and thus doesn’t have the big frame that would more easily project as capable of handling a regular turn in a Major League rotation, so interested teams could be wary of how Kikuchi would hold up health-wise.  That said, with more and more teams using their bullpens in creative ways, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kikuchi eased the big leagues by pitching receiving an extra day of rest, working on a limited pitch count in starts, or any number of other possible answers if his shoulder is of particular concern.

Kikuchi first appeared on the Major League radar screen back in 2009, when he considered taking the unusual step of signing with an MLB team as an amateur rather than an NPB club.  It’s interesting that several of the teams — the Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants — interested in Kikuchi almost a decade ago are still keeping an eye on him now, after he has established himself as a quality starter in Japanese baseball.

There was some thought earlier this year that Kikuchi could land a $100MM contract from a Major League team, though it’s possible that price tag has dropped thanks to the slight dip in form and the shoulder problems that Kikuchi dealt with over the 2018 season.  Kikuchi’s age and experience makes him exempt from the international bonus pool system, so he is in line for a very lucrative multi-year contract rather than the limited deal that Shohei Ohtani had to settle for as a 23-year-old last winter.

Kikuchi also looks to be the first major name whose arrival in North American baseball will be covered by the new posting agreement between MLB and NPB.  Under the former agreement, Japanese teams would receive a posting fee that maxed out at $20MM, whereas now teams will receive a posting fee that is determined by the size of the contract that the player signs with his new Major League team.  Morosi notes that a player must be posted between November 1 and December 5, and the player will have a 30-day window to negotiate with teams after being posted.

A.J. Preller On Padres’ Offseason Plans

By | at

Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) today, prior to his team’s final game of what ended up as a 66-96 campaign.  Here are some of the most pertinent items of Preller’s chat, in regards to what his front office has ahead for the coming offseason…

  • The Padres have yet to post a winning record in Preller’s four full years as GM, and haven’t had a winning season of any sort since 2010.  After another year of rebuilding and focusing on young talent, however, Preller believes the team can take a step forward competition-wise in 2019.  “[We’re] starting to climb out of this point where it’s a development mindset, where we’re at the bottom part of the standings….From our standpoint next year we’re going to look to start to compete.  You’ve got to get over .500 to do that,” Preller said.
  • After last winter’s surprising signing of Eric Hosmer, San Diego could again pursue some of the bigger-name free agents in this year’s market, or (as they did at the trade deadline) look to acquire controllable starting pitching.  “I think we start with: Never say no to anything,” Preller said.  “It’s not like anything is off-limits. We’re open to every possibility, every situation.”  In regards to potential trades, the GM noted that “In the last 12 months, any established players that have been put on the trade market, we’ve been part of those discussions.  We’ve had other teams reaching out to us, wanting to tap into some of the resources we have in our system.  I think that’ll be no different this offseason.  We’ll evaluate the guys we have in our system, versus what we’re able to.”
  • While San Diego could dip into its vaunted prospect depth to swing a trade or two this offseason, it would seemingly be surprising if the club dealt any of its top blue-chippers for the sake of immediate improvement.  As Preller noted, his goal is to build a long-term contender: “Every decision we make is built toward a plan.  What we’re not going to do is short-circuit that.  The last few years, we’re building, really, to get away from the mindset of being average.”
  • The Padres have approximately $51.4MM in guaranteed salaries committed to the 2019 payroll, with Preller saying “I feel like we’re going to have some financial flexibility because a lot of the players are younger players. We understand we’re at that point from a plan standpoint where we’re going to have to supplement from the outside – be it the free agent or trade route. We’ll look to do that in the next few months.”
  • The bulk of next year’s payroll expenditures are due to the salaries of Hosmer and Wil Myers, and Cassavell thinks it possible that the Padres could try to move Myers due to the former first baseman’s position crunch.  Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have earned more playing time in the corner outfield spots in 2019, leaving Myers perhaps at third base (where he struggled defensively, albeit in a small sample size) or maybe in a super-utility role at both corner infield and outfield spots.  Of course, Cassavell also believes that Reyes or Renfroe could be traded to address the crowed corner outfield situation, and obviously either of those two younger players would be easier to deal given that Myers is owed at least $64MM through the 2022 season.
  • Preller said that the team hadn’t yet decided on Myers’ role for next season, though Myers will be informed early so he can properly prepare heading into Spring Training.  For his part, Myers believes that “with an offseason, I will absolutely be able to play third base.”
  • Freddy Galvis could also be a factor at third base, as Preller expressed an interest in re-signing the veteran.  Galvis hit .248/.299/.380 over 656 PA while appearing in all 162 games, appearing as a shortstop in all but five of those contests.  Galvis hasn’t played the hot corner since 2014, but he’d have to shift into a utility role if he returns to San Diego, as the team plans to give more infield time to its top young players next year.

Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market

By | at

The first offseason under the newly-adjusted qualifying offer system didn’t seem drastically different from the QO’s first five years of existence.  While only nine free agents were issued qualifying offers last winter, that could have had more to do with that offseason’s particular crop of players (or perhaps the shifting state of the free agent market in general) than it did with the new qualifying offer rules.

Still, as we look ahead to this year’s free agent class, you’ll notice we could have trouble even getting to nine names that stand out as clear QO candidates.  In the six-year history of the qualifying offer, there has never been fewer than nine players issued the one-year deals, so a new record low could very well be set this offseason.

A brief refresher on the qualifying offer: it is a one-year deal worth the average of the league’s top 125 salaries.  (This year’s QO figure will be a bit higher than last offseason’s $17.4MM price tag, but let’s stick with $17.4MM for reference purposes in this post.)  Teams have until five days after the last game of the World Series to issue a QO to a player, who then has ten days to decide whether or not to accept.

If a player accepts the offer, he simply returns to his former team.  If he rejects the offer and signs elsewhere, his former team receives a compensatory draft pick either immediately after the first round of the 2019 draft, immediately before the third round, or immediately after the fourth round, depending on whether or not the team was a luxury tax payer or revenue-sharing recipient, or if the player signed for more or less than $50MM in his new contract.  Those same factors also impact what a team must give up in order to sign a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent, as the signing team will have to surrender at least one draft pick and potentially some international signing bonus pool money.

A free agent is ineligible for the qualifying offer if he has received one in the past (i.e. Nelson Cruz, Daniel Murphy), or if he didn’t spend the entire preceding season with his current team.  That means players dealt during the year (i.e. Manny Machado, J.A. Happ, Cole Hamels) can head into the open market without draft pick compensation attached to them.

Last year’s unusually slow-paced offseason will certainly be weighing on the minds of both players and teams when it comes to weighing and issuing qualifying offers this winter.  Some players may be more apt to take a one-year deal and a big guaranteed salary rather than risk getting shortchanged in free agency, particularly if that player has a notable injury history and/or a limited track record of success.  By that same token, teams may also be more circumspect about issuing qualifying offers, as they obviously won’t want to end up paying over $17.4MM to a player they aren’t absolutely comfortable seeing occupy such a big chunk of payroll space.  Of the 73 qualifying offers issued, however, only five players (Jeremy Hellickson, Neil Walker, Colby Rasmus, Brett Anderson, Matt Wieters) have ever accepted the deals.

Injuries, extensions, postseason performance, or any number of factors could still impact this list before the offseason officially begins.  For now, however, let’s predict who is likeliest to receive a qualifying offer five days after the World Series…

Sticking first with the players who can opt out of their contracts, Andrus has already hinted that he’ll remain in his Rangers contract following his injury-shortened 2018 campaign.  Kershaw has dealt with some injury issues of his own in recent years, though he would certainly land more than two years/$65MM (his remaining Dodgers salary) if he opted to join the open market this winter.  Prior to the season, both Kershaw and Dodgers owner Mark Walter indicated they’d like to continue the relationship between the franchise and the ace left-hander, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if the two sides reach an extension agreement before the qualifying offer even becomes a factor, a la Justin Upton’s extension with the Angels last year.

Even if Kershaw does opt out, that’s still only seven players who look like strong-to-surefire candidates for a qualifying offer.  It would be a surprise if any of the seven accepted the QO, since this group includes a potential $300MM player in Harper, the top closer (Kimbrel) on the market, at least two of the top three starting pitchers available, and maybe the top catcher in Grandal, depending on how one feels about Wilson Ramos.

Admittedly, I gave some thought about Pollock in this category since he suffered another significant injury (missing six weeks with a fractured thumb), giving him just 225 total games played over the 2016-18 seasons.  Over that stretch, Pollock has hit .265/.327/.472 with 33 homers and 35 steals (in 43 chances) over 924 PA, while playing generally above-average defense in center field.  These are more the numbers of a solid regular than a player in line for a top-tier free agent deal, though since Pollock turns 31 in December, I doubt he’d pass up his best chance at a big multi-year contract for a one-year qualifying offer.  Accepting the QO would mean that Pollock would hold off his free agency until his age-32 season, which quite probably limits his earning potential unless he returned to his superstar 2015 form.  Since Pollock is likely to decline a QO, the Diamondbacks can feel safe in floating one without worrying that he’d accept, since Arizona might hesitate at committing another $17.4MM-plus in payroll.  The D’Backs already project to have over $65MM tied up in three players (Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas) in 2019.

Sale ($15MM club option) and Bumgarner ($12MM club option) would also surely be issued qualifying offers if the Red Sox and Giants respectively declined to exercise their options on the two aces, though both of those options are locks to be picked up.

Smoak makes the “borderline” category since he wouldn’t be an obvious top-tier free agent like Sale or Bumgarner, plus Smoak is entering his age-32 season and the free agent market hasn’t been too kind to first base-only players over the last two offseasons.  Regardless, the Blue Jays will certainly exercise their $8MM club option on Smoak for 2019, so he is just a token option on the list.

Morton discussed the possibility of retiring earlier this year, and while he could explore signing with an East Coast team closer to his wife’s home in Delaware, Morton stressed that his top option would be to continue playing with the Astros.  Morton’s most recent comments seemed to indicate that he was leaning towards a return since he was still pitching so well, which led MLBTR’s Steve Adams to suggest that the qualifying offer could be a fit for both Morton and the Astros.  Morton would only be committing for one more year while still collecting a nice payday, and Houston would certainly want to have Morton back given his 2018 results.  (An x-factor could be the shoulder issues that have bothered Morton in recent weeks, though he is expected to pitch once more before the season ends, and throughout the Astros’ playoff run.)

The Indians already have over $90MM committed to next year’s payroll, and that isn’t counting Carlos Carrasco’s no-brainer club option, big arbitration raises for Francisco Lindor and Trevor Bauer, and a need to rebuild a bullpen that will likely lose Cody Allen and Andrew Miller.  With this in mind, the Tribe may not want to risk adding another $17.4MM to the tally if Brantley accepted a qualifying offer.  Brantley does turn 32 next May, and if his age and injury history makes him worried about what offers are available to him in free agency, he might prefer to stick in Cleveland for another year with a contending team.  On the flip side, however, Brantley may also want to test the market in the wake of his impressive (and healthy) bounce-back season, and the Tribe could at least recoup some value in the form of a draft pick if he departs.  It’s also possible that Brantley accepting the QO wouldn’t be the worst scenario for a Cleveland team that is clearly in “win now” mode and still has a lot of question marks around its outfield.

While he hasn’t returned to the eye-popping offensive levels he carried in 2016, and in fact has been a below-average hitter over the past two seasons, LeMahieu still profiles as a solid all-around performer. LeMahieu’s power is up to personal-high levels in 2018, but his OBP has fallen to a point (.325) not seen since he established himself as a quality regular in 2015. Though he doesn’t earn plaudits for his baserunning, the glovework is a calling card. If you believe DRS more than UZR, you may be a particular believer. The former grades LeMahieu as an outstanding defender at second base, the latter merely a very good one. Regardless, the profile here is of a two-to-three WAR regular. For a Rockies club with other needs and some infield talent waiting in the wings, it seems like it’d be risky to dangle a big single-season payday to a non-star player that might worry about his resulting market situation if he declines the offer. On the other hand, the Colorado organization has been rewarded for being aggressive with the QO in the past (Michael Cuddyer) and may feel that it’d be an acceptable result to keep the 30-year-old LeMahieu for 2019, even at a premium rate.

Most free agents fit into this (or the “absolutely not”) category, though we’ll highlight a few names that at least have some case for a qualifying offer.

David Price has already all but confirmed that he isn’t opting out of the remaining four years and $127MM on his Red Sox contract, so he won’t be a factor in qualifying offer discussions.

The A’s aren’t likely to risk having a $17.4MM player on their payroll, even if the team has little in the way of future salary commitments and may be more willing to spend now that they have a contending team.  Lowrie turns 35 in April and has expressed interest in staying in Oakland, so he could accept a QO if offered rather than test the market as a mid-30’s player with a checkered injury history (though he has been healthy the last two seasons and somewhat quietly posted 8.4 fWAR in that stretch).  The A’s could forego the qualifying offer and look to bring Lowrie back on a contract extension or perhaps a new deal should he reach free agency, which would give Lowrie more security than just a one-year contract.

Markakis is another veteran entering his age-35 season who could opt to take the qualifying offer and remain in a familiar (and now winning) environment rather than face the uncertainty of the mid-30’s free agent market.  I can also see the Braves being open to having Markakis back on a QO contract, as he’d join Freddie Freeman as the only two truly major expenditures on a roster bolstered by lots of pre-arbitration talent.  Given that Markakis’ bat has cooled off considerably in the second half, however, I’d still consider it a surprise if Atlanta extended a qualifying offer.

Recent indications seem to hint that if Beltre returns to play in 2019, it will be for the Rangers.  Much about Beltre’s plans are still up in the air, of course, though it doesn’t seem like Texas would have to use the qualifying offer to retain the future Hall-of-Famer.  Even considering the obvious regard the organization has for Beltre, his injury-shortened and only moderately productive 2018 season doesn’t merit a $17.4MM offer.

As for Ryu, the 31-year-old southpaw caries an exceedingly worrisome injury history. But he warrants mention, as was pointed out in the comments, owing to his incredibly productive work this season when he has been healthy. Ryu has thrown 76 1/3 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, with an impressive combination of 10.1 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. Statcast thinks he has largely deserved the stingy results, showing a .268 wOBA and .277 xwOBA. The QO amount still feels steep, but a hefty short-term agreement of some kind is likely.

NL Notes: Giants, Fowler, Pirates

By | at

The Giants are exploring the addition of “a high-profile baseball operations executive” to their front office, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (subscription required).  The idea would be that this new hire would allow Brian Sabean to step back from some of the team’s day-to-day operations — Sabean’s resumption of this role last offseason was “regarded as only a temporary adjustment,” and Sabean would seemingly step back into his previous responsibilities as the team’s president of baseball operations.  Olney’s report raises new questions about current Giants GM Bobby Evans, as there has already been speculation about his status for 2019, though obviously San Francisco could add a new voice to the front office mix without a major shakeup of the team’s baseball ops ladder.

Some more from around the NL…

  • Dexter Fowler’s season was ended after he suffered a fractured foot on August 3, though it had already been a trying year for the Cardinals outfielder, as he tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Fowler hit a career-worst .180/.278/.298 over 334 PA, and while he said physical injuries weren’t to blame for his struggles, “I think it was more mental health” that led to the down year.  Fowler had to deal with public comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about his level of effort (Mozeliak apologized for citing only Fowler as part of a larger issue within the team) and a seeming rift with former St. Louis manager Mike Matheny.  The Cards have thoroughly turned their season around since Mike Shildt took over as manager, and Fowler has been excited about his team’s progress and his future in St. Louis.  “Shoot, I’m watching what’s happened and I’m excited for 2019….I think that’s going to be awesome. I look forward to being a part of that,” Fowler said.
  • Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer were both removed from today’s game in the middle of an inning, so the two veteran Pirates infielders could receive a round of applause from the home crowd in what is likely to be their final game at PNC Park in the black-and-gold.  Mercer is a free agent, and Pittsburgh is expected to decline its $10.5MM club option on Harrison for 2019, leaving room for Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman expected to take over at second base and shortstop next year.  Harrison told reporters (including Jerry Dipaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that he hasn’t yet considered leaving the Pirates, while Mercer said is open to re-signing with the team.
  • The Pirates have suffered several late-season injuries that could leave those players (Gregory Polanco, Chad Kuhl, Edgar Santana, Joe Musgrove) sidelined for at least the first part of the 2019 season, which could impact the team’s offseason plans, Rob Biertempfel writes in a subscription-only piece for The Athletic.  The statuses of Musgrove and Santana are still to be exactly determined, while the Bucs already know Kuhl will be out until 2020 due to Tommy John surgery and Polanco will be out until mid-April at the earliest following shoulder surgery.

Blue Jays Notes: Martin, Braves, Kemp, Giles, Bullpen

By | at

The latest from Toronto…

  • Russell Martin reflects on a tough year in an interview with Sportsnet.ca’s Jeff Blair, and needless to say, the veteran catcher is hoping for better things in 2019 for both himself and his team.  Martin hit just .194/.338/.325 over 352 plate appearances this season, an unimpressive slash line that could end up being his final number, as Martin has barely played in September due to the Jays’ desire to give playing time to younger catchers Danny Jansen, Luke Maile, and Reese McGuire.  Martin has seen additional time at third base this year and even performed spot duty as a shortstop and left fielder, though in regards to his future as a catcher, “I’d like it to be a competition and force [the Jays] to make a decision” in 2019, he said.  Martin is owed $20MM next season, his last under contract, though he isn’t likely to receive more than a backup catcher or overall utilityman role since the Blue Jays are in rebuilding mode.
  • Blair’s piece also includes the notable item that the Braves had interest in Martin last offseason while trying to find a trade partner for a Matt Kemp deal.  Atlanta ended up sending Kemp to the Dodgers in a fascinating five-player trade that had major salary ramifications for both teams, and resulted in a big on-field impact as well in 2018, as Kemp enjoyed a comeback season and Charlie Culberson and Brandon McCarthy both contributed to the Braves’ NL East-winning campaign.  Last winter, however, the Braves were simply trying to get Kemp off the books, and it’s interesting to wonder what type of “bad contract swap” could’ve been cooked up between the Braves and Jays, particularly with former Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos running Atlanta’s front office.  If Martin had ended up a Brave, he likely would’ve seen a lot more third base time this season, as the Braves already had Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki as a very productive tandem behind the plate.
  • “I’m actually enjoying the game more than I did for my entire tenure in Houston,” Ken Giles tells The Toronto Star’s Rosie DiManno about his first eight weeks in a Blue Jays uniform.  Giles came to the Jays as part of the controversial deadline deal that sent Roberto Osuna to the Astros, and continued his season-long trend of excelling in save situations but pitching poorly in non-save appearances.  While his results may not have differed, Giles said his comfort level is much higher in Toronto than in Houston, as “it was like the communication was lost” this year with the Astros.  “I just felt trapped there. I didn’t feel like myself there. Overall, I felt out of place,” Giles said.  The Blue Jays, by contrast, “stayed patient with me. I said, hey, I want to work on this thing till I’m comfortable….Pitching, you can’t just try to fix everything at once.  For me, I had to take baby steps to get my groove back.  The Jays allowed me to do that.“
  • Giles projects to be the Jays’ closer in 2019, though the bullpen as a whole will need some attention this offseason, Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  Toronto is expected to look at adding veteran relievers in trades and free agency to bolster a unit that could face a heavy workload next season, given that the Jays will be planning on a young and inexperienced starting rotation.  As well, veteran additions (as well as incumbent relievers like Giles) could also be turned into trade chips at the next July deadline, such as how the Jays have dealt the likes of Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith, and John Axford over the last two years.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top