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Braves Decline Club Option On Tyler Kinley

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The Braves have declined their club option on right-hander Tyler Kinley, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Kinley will receive a $750K buyout and head into free agency rather than collecting a $5.5MM salary for the 2026 season.

The move to decline Kinley’s option is something of a surprise. The right-hander pitched to a 3.96 ERA with a 3.69 FIP in 72 2/3 innings of work overall in 2025, but those solid yet unspectacular overall results don’t tell the whole story. After being traded away from Coors Field to Atlanta at the trade deadline, Kinley flourished. He posted a microscopic 0.72 ERA in 25 innings of work, striking out 23.4% of his opponents with a 6.4% walk rate. That drop in free passes was especially notable given that he’s walked 11.1% of his opponents throughout parts of eight seasons in the majors, the majority of which came as a member of the Rockies.

Between Kinley’s big step forward in Atlanta, the club’s decision to trade for him at the trade deadline in an non-competitive year in the first place, and a bullpen that already stands to lose Raisel Iglesias in free agency this winter, the $4.75MM decision to keep Kinley in the fold seemed like an easy one for the Braves to pounce on. That’s not the path they’ve chosen, however, and Kinley will now head into free agency to become one of a vast pool of interesting middle relief arms available.

The decision to decline Kinley’s option could suggest some financial limitations facing Atlanta’s front office. Last winter saw the Braves kick off the year by shedding salary in some surprising ways, dumping Jorge Soler’s contract in a trade with the Angels and declining catcher Travis d’Arnaud’s club option while restructuring a number of contracts to provide more short-term financial flexibility. Those efforts allowed Atlanta to add Jurickson Profar to their outfield mix last year, and it’s not impossible to imagine the decision to decline Kinley coming from a desire to make sure that Atlanta has the resources available they’ll need to pursue their goals this winter. It seems likely the Braves will add at least one starter to their rotation, and they’ve made no secret of their desire to retain shortstop Ha-Seong Kim after they claimed him off waivers from Tampa back in September.

Checking those boxes on the offseason to-do list will come with significant price tags, but finding another quality relief arm for the Braves’ bullpen might be possible to do for less than the $4.75MM they’re saving by parting with Kinley. It’s not uncommon for teams to turn waiver pickups and minor league signings into stalwart bullpen pieces who wind up getting crucial outs in high leverage situations. The Dodgers uncovered a gem in that manner a few years ago when they brought Evan Phillips into the fold, while teams like the Cubs, Rays, and Brewers typically construct nearly their entire bullpen using this method. That strategy has not been one the Braves have employed in the past, instead happily investing significant dollars into contracts for players like Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson and Aaron Bummer. After a disappointing 2025 season that wound up being the worst of Alex Anthopoulos’s tenure in the organization, however, it’s worth wondering if the decision to part with Kinley could suggest a change in approach.

Don Mattingly Will Not Return As Blue Jays’ Bench Coach In 2026

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10:37am: The Phillies have discussed the possibility of hiring Mattingly to serve as bench coach under manager Rob Thomson, according to a report from Jim Salisbury of PHLY Sports.

10:19am: Don Mattingly is leaving the Blue Jays following their heartbreaking loss to the Dodgers in Game 7 of the World Series last week. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Mattingly won’t return to the Jays organization in 2026 after serving as their bench coach for the past three seasons. Notably, Heyman adds that Mattingly is not leaving the Jays with the intention of retiring from baseball and would be open to “the right job” if the opportunity presents itself.

That could include a managerial gig, which would be the third of Mattingly’s career. The 2020 NL Manager of the Year has 11 years of managerial experience between his time with the Dodgers and Marlins. He’s made the postseason four times as a manager and has a career 889-950 record in the dugout. The Padres have yet to settle on their next manager after Mike Shildt stepped down last month, and the Rockies have left interim manager Warren Schaeffer’s fate undecided while they focus on a search for the next leader of their front office.

That leaves two plausible places where Mattingly could land as a skipper this winter, though it’s unclear if either team actually has interest in him for the role. San Diego has reportedly already settled on a group of finalists and could be nearing a decision, while the Rockies’ preferences in the dugout won’t be known until there’s a new head of baseball operations who can be tasked with making that decision.

Even as Heyman specifically notes Mattingly would have interest in managing, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the only job that would hold appeal to the longtime veteran of the game. In addition to his lengthy career as a coach, Mattingly also has 14 years in the majors (including an MVP award in 1985) with the Yankees as a player. Mattingly’s resume and decades of baseball experience should make him someone who would be a valuable addition to almost any club in one role or another.

While Mattingly is currently seeking his next job in the game, this winter could prove to be a busy one for him. The 64-year-old is one of eight players who is on this year’s Hall of Fame Era Committee ballot. If at least 12 out of 16 panelists give Mattingly the nod, he’ll enter Cooperstown next summer. The results of that vote will be announced just over a month from now on December 7.

As for the Blue Jays, manager John Schneider will need to find a new bench coach for the 2026 season. That’s assuming that Schneider himself is returning to the Jays next year. He, like Mattingly, is on an expiring contract this winter. There’s little reason to expect that Schneider wouldn’t return to the Jays after their phenomenal 2025 campaign, however. Clarity on the specifics of the Jays’ coaching staff and any other changes that will be made aside from Mattingly’s departure could come later today, as team president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins are set to make themselves available to the media for an end-of-season presser later today.

Justin Turner Becomes Free Agent

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Infielder Justin Turner is headed into free agency after his mutual option with the Cubs was declined, according to an announcement by the Major League Baseball Players Association this morning. It’s not clear who between Turner and the Cubs declined their end of the option, but either way Turner will be paid a $2MM buyout rather than a $10MM salary for 2026.

Turner, 41 later this month, had his first below-average season in over a decade in 2025. The veteran hit just .219/.288/.314 with a wRC+ of 71 in across 80 games and 191 plate appearances. He was largely a bench player for the Cubs this past season, with his primary role in Chicago being to serve as a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Michael Busch at first base.

In that specific role, Turner actually did reasonably well for himself. He slashed .276/.330/.429 (112 wRC+) in 109 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. That’s a perfectly solid number, but it’s belied by atrocious numbers against same-handed pitching. Righties limited Turner to a slash line of just .141/.232/.155 with a wRC+ of just 16 in 82 trips to the plate. That’s the worst production against right-handed pitching among hitters with at least 70 trips to the plate against righties this year, and it left Turner with negative WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference this year.

As Turner nears his 41st birthday, he hasn’t indicated one way or another what his plans are for the future. If he looks to continue his playing career, it’s not hard to imagine a team valuing his experience and leadership in the clubhouse enough to give him an invitation to Spring Training and allow him to compete for a bench role despite his rough 2025 campaign. With that being said, a big league guarantee on the level he received last offseason is hard to imagine, and he’d mostly only fit on a roster that struggles badly at the plate against southpaws.

As for the Cubs, they’ll be looking to largely overhaul their bench mix this winter. Turner and Willi Castro are both headed into free agency, while Reese McGuire is a potential non-tender candidate. A platoon partner for Busch may not be quite as necessary as it seemed this time last year after his breakout 2025 season where he posted a 140 wRC+ and even managed to post a 143 wRC+ against southpaws from July 1 onward. That’s a sample of just 52 plate appearances, however, and if the Cubs do want some insurance they could turn to someone like Wilmer Flores, Ty France, or Connor Joe.

The Opener: Top 50 Free Agents, Qualifying Offers, 40-Man Roster Moves

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As one of the busiest days of the offseason gets underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents List:

With the 2025-26 class of free agents on the verge of being mostly set in stone this afternoon, we here at MLBTR are excited to unveil our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list later today. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until Qualifying Offer decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party, but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the events of an unpredictable offseason.

2. Option, QO Decisions Come Due:

We’re now five days out from the end of the World Series. That means that, later today, free agents will be free to negotiate with all other teams and that any outstanding option decisions will need to be made today. Some of those option decisions could be a catalyst for talks about a larger deal, as was the case for the Colin Rea extension reported by MLBTR’s Steve Adams earlier today.

Also due today are each clubs’ decisions on whether or not to give their outgoing free agents a Qualifying Offer. For those unfamiliar, the QO is a one-year, $22.025MM contract that a club can offer to outgoing free agents who began the year with the team and haven’t previously received one. If that offer is declined, the free agent will enter the market tied to draft pick compensation. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco previewed the upcoming QO decisions for both pitchers and position players last month.

3. 40-man Roster Housekeeping:

As the offseason gets fully underway today, MLB’s 30 teams are faced with a handful of other, smaller moves that need to be made independent of free agency. The 60-day injured list goes away during the offseason, so teams must activate all players currently on the 60-day IL and get their 40-man rosters down to 40 players or less today. That likely means that a number of players will be exposed to waivers today, though it’s also possible teams with excess 40-man roster space could look to work out small trades with teams that need to clear space. The Rays have already participated in two such trades this winter as they landed outfielder Ryan Vilade from the Reds and shipped right-hander Joey Gerber to the Mets.

Cubs Not Expected To Pursue Top Free Agent Relievers

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The Cubs are going to need to overhaul their bullpen this winter after trading Andrew Kittredge to the Orioles yesterday while Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, and Caleb Thielbar are all ticketed for free agency. Despite those four departures draining their entire high-leverage relief mix outside of Daniel Palencia, however, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that Chicago’s front office is not expected to be involved in the markets of this winter’s top free agent relief arms.

That’s not especially surprising, as the Cubs have generally eschewed high-dollar multi-year deals for relievers over the years. There have been some rare exceptions to that rule, such as the three-year deal the Cubs signed Craig Kimbrel to in 2019 while Theo Epstein was in charge and the team’s pursuit of southpaw Tanner Scott in free agency under Jed Hoyer last offseason, but the Cubs have long preferred to build their bullpen on a budget. That includes last year’s group. Keller was a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, Pomeranz was acquired from the Mariners in a minor trade back in April, and Thielbar’s big league deal guaranteed him just $2.75MM total. Those three pitchers posted ERAs of 2.07, 2.17, and 2.64 respectively while combining for 177 1/3 innings across 192 appearances.

Sharma suggests that trying to find value on the margins of the market with minor league deals and reclamation projects figures to be the club’s goal once again this winter, though he does leave the door open for the possibility that the Cubs could jump into the market on a bigger name relief arm if their expected market doesn’t materialize and they linger into January and February. Otherwise, it seems as though the Cubs won’t be adding a top tier closer this winter. Sharma specifically names Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Devin Williams as players who aren’t likely to be in the cards for Chicago at this point.

That doesn’t mean they won’t add any veterans who can offer some more certainty towards the back of the bullpen, of course. Sharma notes that the club brought in Ryan Pressly via trade this past offseason in an effort to provide that sort of certainty. Pressly was on the last year of his deal, and it seems likely that if the Cubs do add a bullpen veteran on a notable deal, it would be a similar one-to-two year arrangement. That could come via either free agency or trade; perhaps the Rays would make Pete Fairbanks available on the trade market ahead of his final year under club control, or the team could try and pursue a one-year deal with a veteran closer like Kenley Jansen.

It’s possible the club could be banking on some internal improvements to their relief corps, as well. Any number of young arms might be able to take a step forward similar to the one Palencia made this past season, and with the Cubs seemingly likely to pursue starting pitching additions this winter, that could make converting a young rotation arm like Ben Brown into relief full-time a viable option. Brown is held back as a starter by a lack of a quality third pitch, but he did strike out 28.6% of his opponents with a 2.97 FIP after moving into a bullpen role to open the month of August. Porter Hodge and Luke Little are among the other arms in the club’s relief corps who have shown flashes of dominance at the big league level but have yet to put it all together consistently.

Braves To Exercise Club Option On Chris Sale

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The Braves are exercising their club option on left-hander Chris Sale, according to a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Sale will make $18MM in 2026.

The call to pick up Sale’s option for the 2026 campaign is surely one of the easiest option decisions any team will make this offseason. Sale, 36, is one of the best pitchers of his generation and won the NL Cy Young award in 2024. He was on track to compete for the award again this year, with a 2.52 ERA and 2.71 FIP through 15 starts, but he found himself sidelined for ten weeks over the summer due to a ribcage fracture. He looked just as dominant as ever when he returned, however, with a 2.72 ERA and 2.58 FIP across six starts in August and September. His stuff looked just as good as ever down the stretch, and he struck out an eye-popping 36.4% of his opponents in his 36 1/3 innings of work.

That Sale is pitching well is hardly a surprise, as he’s put together a Hall of Fame-caliber resume over the years. A nine-time All-Star who placed in the top five for AL Cy Young award voting six times before winning the NL award last year, Sale’s career 3.01 ERA, 2.88 FIP, and 30.8% strikeout rate know few equals throughout the game. He’s seventh all-time in strikeout rate among starting pitchers, and his run prevention and peripheral numbers match up well with titans of the sport like Clayton Kershaw and Pedro Martinez despite some of his counting numbers being held back by a relative lack of volume.

Fortunately, that relative lack of volume also means a relative lack of mileage on his arm, as compared to other players in his age range. Even with his 37th birthday on the horizon in March, Sale figures to serve as the club’s ace once again in 2026. He’ll be at the front of an Atlanta rotation with a lot of exciting upside but precious little certainty. Spencer Strider has shown the capacity to be a Cy Young caliber arm in the past, but had a disappointing 4.45 ERA in 2025. Spencer Schwellenbach has a career 3.23 ERA but was sidelined after just 17 starts this past season. Reynaldo Lopez had a 1.99 ERA in 2024 but didn’t appear in a game after March 28th this year.

Adding at least one proven, reliable rotation arm to this group figures to be a priority for the Braves this offseason, though it’s possible they could look to do more than that given the group’s collective injury history and questions about Lopez’s ability to handle the workload of a starter long-term. Even with additions likely on the horizon, though, there’s little doubt that Sale will be making his seventh career Opening Day start (and second for the Braves) in 2026 as long as he completes Spring Training with a clean bill of health.

Yankees To Exercise Club Option On Tim Hill, Decline Club Option On Jonathan Loaisiga

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The Yankees are exercising their club option on Tim Hill, according to a report from ESPN’s Jorge Castillo. Hill will return to New York on a $3MM salary in 2026. Castillo also reports that the Yankees are not picking up their club option on right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga. Loaisiga will head into free agency rather than collecting what would have been a $5MM salary next year.

Neither of these decisions are especially surprising. Hill, 36 in February, has turned in excellent production for the Yankees over the past two seasons with a 2.68 ERA in 111 innings since being acquired from the White Sox midway through the 2024 season. His peripheral numbers took a big step back in 2025 thanks to eight home runs surrendered that coincided with the highest barrel rate of his career (7.9%). That jump wasn’t helped by the fact that Hill has never been a strikeout artist, and his 13.9% punch out rate this year was actually his best since 2021.

Even so, Hill continues to generate ground balls at some of the highest rates in the league. That makes keeping him in the bullpen at a $3MM price tag something of a no-brainer, and he’ll enter the year as the club’s top left-handed relief option barring an external addition that supplants him on the depth chart. That could leave him in the mix for some high leverage opportunities next year, while David Bednar and Camilo Doval shut things down from the right side.

As for Loaisiga, the right-hander’s eighth year with the Yankees looks likely to be his final one. At one point in his career, the hard-throwing righty looked like a future closer as he posted a 2.50 ERA with a 3.03 FIP between the 2020 and ’21 seasons. Things have unraveled for Loaisiga since, however. He was only pedestrian in 2022 and then missed nearly two full seasons due to injuries. He did manage to make 30 appearances for the Yankees this year, but his 97 ERA+ was just below average and a 5.83 FIP suggested even that figure was aided by some good fortune. His season was cut short by a flexor strain, and he appears likely to enter the market this winter on the hunt for a minor league deal.

With Bednar, Doval, Fernando Cruz, Jake Bird, Ian Hamilton, and Mark Leiter Jr. all in the mix for next year, the Yankees look to be reasonably well set up in the bullpen on the right side. An addition beyond that group can’t necessarily be ruled out, however, as the departures of both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver in conjunction with shaky performances down the stretch from both Bednar and Doval could create a desire to bring in a more surefire closing option.

The Opener: Blue Jays, Imanaga, Option Decisions

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On the heels of an early morning posting announcement from Nippon Professional Baseball, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Blue Jays get to keep Bieber:

Right-hander Shane Bieber made the surprising call to exercise his $16MM player option with the Blue Jays rather than take a $4MM buyout and head into free agency yesterday. It’s a move that leaves the Toronto rotation in much better shape than previously anticipated headed into free agency, as Bieber will now join Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Jose Berrios in the club’s 2026 rotation. With Bieber under contract for 2026 at a bargain rate, could the Jays be more aggressive in their pursuit of a reunion with star infielder Bo Bichette or pursue another top arm to join Bieber, Yesavage, and Gausman in the team’s projected playoff rotation for next year? Yesterday’s news creates an opportunity for the Blue Jays to potentially get creative in free agency as they’ve preemptively filled out a need in their rotation without using up much of their budget.

2. Imanaga heads to free agency:

The Cubs and left-hander Shota Imanaga both declined their sides of a complex option structure that could’ve kept Imanaga in Chicago through either 2026 or 2028. Now, the southpaw is a free agent coming off an uneven season where he posted mid-rotation results with lackluster peripherals and struggled badly in the final months of the year. While the rest of the league will get the opportunity to evaluate a starting pitching option who was not expected to be available as recently as a few months ago, this may not necessarily be the end of the story between the Cubs and Imanaga. Chicago’s front office will now need to decide whether to extend the 2024 All-Star a Qualifying Offer or let him walk away into free agency unencumbered without a chance at draft pick compensation.

3. Option Decisions continue to pour in:

A number of option decisions, including the two highlighted above, have already been made. But more contracts will still need to be decided on before tomorrow’s deadline. Most of those decisions will be straightforward, with a player or club either exercising or declining their option. Some, however, could lead to some creativity. The Royals signed Salvador Perez to an extension yesterday rather than exercising his club option, while the Cubs traded Andrew Kittredge to the Orioles instead of declining his club option and paying the subsequent buyout on that option. Could any other creative moves in a similar vein emerge today?

Kona Takahashi To Be Posted This Offseason

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Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions announced overnight that they will post Kona Takahashi for MLB clubs this offseason. The news isn’t necessarily shocking, as it was reported back in August that the Lions were likely to post Takahashi this winter.

Takahashi, 29 in February, pitched to a solid 3.04 ERA in 24 starts for the Lions this past season. He struck out only 14.3% of his opponents in 148 innings of work, however, and his 2024 season was limited to just 15 starts at the highest level of NPB play when he posted a 3.87 ERA in 81 1/3 innings of work last year and saw his velocity dip below his previous career norms. Takahashi’s numbers in his platform season aren’t too dissimilar from those of southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara last season, who posted a 3.12 ERA in 24 starts with a 13.6% strikeout rate in his final NPB season before he landed a two-year, $3.5MM guarantee with the Nationals this past offseason.

Ogasawara spent much of his season at the Triple-A level and struggled when he did pitch in the majors, with a 6.98 ERA in 38 2/3 innings of work. While Ogasawara hasn’t worked out in the majors at this point, that doesn’t necessarily mean Takahashi will follow in his footsteps. After all, Takahashi did enjoy back-to-back dominant seasons with the Lions in 2022 and ’23. Those years, he posted a combined ERA of 2.20 while striking batters out at a higher clip, though even those elevated numbers capped out at 19.2% in 2023.

It’s not unheard of for NPB players to see their strikeout rate tick upward when they reach the majors, which is less contact-oriented than NPB. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, for example, struck out 26.6% of his opponents in his final NPB season and has a career 29.1% strikeout rate in the majors to this point. With that being said, there were just 11 qualified starters in the majors this year who punched out less than 20% of their opponents. Among them, only Michael Wacha and Zack Littell mustered an ERA below 4.00.

That reality casts Takahashi as more of a back-end starter or swing man at the big league level, and while it’s possible there’s an organization that thinks they can help him take a step forward it seems likely he’ll be relegated to a relatively small multi-year deal or perhaps even a non-guaranteed deal. Even with that likely deflated price tag, the process by which he’ll come to the majors is the same as it is for any other NPB pitcher who hasn’t yet reached free agency. Once he’s been officially posted for MLB clubs, which likely won’t happen until later this month or early December, he’ll have 45 days to reach a deal in the majors.

If a deal isn’t reached, he’ll remain in Japan and won’t be eligible to be posted again until next offseason. If Takahashi does work out a deal, the acquiring club will have to pay a posting fee to the Lions depending on the size of Takahashi’s contract. For contracts worth $25MM or less, that translates to a fee worth 20% of the total guarantee. A minor league contract, meanwhile, would see the Lions recoup 25% of the value of Takahashi’s signing bonus and an additional fee if Takahashi were to be added to his new club’s MLB roster.

Shota Imanaga Becomes Free Agent

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga has become a free agent, according to a report from Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs declined their three-year, $57MM club option on Imanaga’s services for 2026-28, and Imanaga subsequently declined his $15MM player option for 2026.

It’s an outcome that would’ve seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. Signed out of Japan to a deal that was on paper a four-year, $53MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason that had the aforementioned complex option structure set to kick in after the 2025 campaign, Imanaga was nothing short of sensational for Chicago in his first year as an MLB pitcher last year. In 29 starts, he pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a 25.1% strikeout rate across 173 1/3 innings of work that earned him an All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting last year.

While that strong rookie campaign seemed to portend a long stay near the front of Chicago’s rotation for Imanaga, things started to unravel this year. Early in the season, he managed to get strong results despite shoddy peripherals, with a 2.82 ERA through eight starts despite a 4.59 FIP and a strikeout rate that had plummeted to just 18.8%. His season was abruptly put on hold by a hamstring injury that cost him nearly two months, and when he returned his strikeout rate continued to dip. He did manage to fire off seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts during his first start after the All-Star break, but from there he began a downward spiral where his results started to match his lackluster peripherals.

From July 25 through the end of the season, Imanaga made 12 starts where he surrendered a 5.17 ERA with a 5.42 FIP across 69 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate actually recovered a bit during this stretch, creeping back up to 23.2%, but he allowed an eye-popping 20 home runs in that stretch. Imanaga has always had trouble with the long ball, and even in his excellent 2024 campaign he allowed the tenth-most homers among qualified starters. This year, his 31 homers allowed were the fourth-most in all of baseball despite him pitching just 144 2/3 frames. That’s fewer innings than anyone else in the top 20 besides Tyler Anderson, who allowed 28 homers in 136 1/3 innings of work.

In spite of his lackluster season, a poll of MLBTR readers on September 10 suggested that more than 91% believed the Cubs should exercise his club option. From that point onward, what seemed at the time like a borderline call became more clear as he posted an 8.04 ERA in his final three regular season starts before posting an 8.10 ERA in the postseason and ultimately being passed over for a winner-take-all Game 5 start against the Brewers in the ALDS despite him being on regular rest. By that time, this outcome seemed far more likely. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took a guess at Imanaga’s future in our Offseason Outlook coverage of the Cubs on October 22, and settled on the sides both declining their options and Imanaga heading into free agency.

From the Cubs’ perspective, moving on from Imanaga is understandable for a handful of reasons. By picking up his option, the Cubs would be counting on Imanaga to rebound into at least mid-rotation form for his age-32, -33, and -34 seasons. That might not seem like a bad bet to make, but it’s worth noting that Wrigley Field is notoriously fickle in terms of park factors thanks to the wind. In 2024, when Imanaga was at his best with the Cubs, Wrigley suppressed home runs at the fifth-highest rate in all of baseball according to Statcast. This year, that inverted to make the Friendly Confines the 11th-friendliest ballpark in baseball to home run hitters.

Perhaps Imanaga will be able to return to form elsewhere, particularly if he signs in a park with more consistent homer-suppressing tendencies, but it’s not hard to see why the Cubs wouldn’t want to commit to him long-term given that reality. That doesn’t necessarily rule out the possibility that he’ll return to the Cubs at all; Rogers reports that it’s not yet clear if Chicago intends to extend Imanaga the qualifying offer. Recouping draft pick compensation for Imanaga if he departs would surely be attractive to the Cubs, and him accepting the QO may be preferable to having kept him on a three-year deal at a lower annual cost due to the short-term nature of the arrangement. With that said, the market has plenty of mid-rotation or better starters available this winter, and the Cubs might prefer to not risk Imanaga accepting the offer so they can reallocate those dollars to a starter they feel better fits their roster.

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